Dynasty & Redraft: QB Joe Burrow, Bengals

[Andy Dufresne 11,632]

1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

That's not at all what I'm implying... you're smarter than that Andy...

He was older than much of his competition. It took him that long to break out; that can be just as much of a red flag as it is for WRs. 

A year or two older than many on the field, most everyone else his age who was great has already declared, he is an extra year seasoned, the game has slowed down for him much more. 

Now he goes to the NFL where none of the above is true... everyone is faster, smarter, stronger, more experienced. That's when a player has to depend on talent. Except when he was an under class man and had to do the same, he wasn't as successful. 

 

Example: Trevor Lawrence's success is much more impressive than Burrow's because Lawrence is doing it as an under classman 

If hes so great why wasnt he drafted in 2019? I dont recall hearing much about him this time last year... His 2018 stats are pretty unimpressive... 57.8 completion percentage. 

Hes been in college for 5 years... that doesn't matter? We shouldnt second guess if he is legit? The list of successful NFL qbs drafted in the 1st round after 4 or 5 years of college ball is not very long...

Well sometimes it's hard to tell what you're saying.

As to Burrow the diagnosis is simple if you look at it as a whole. First, he JUST turned 23 last month. Second, he redshirted at OSU then got stuck behind JT Barrett and Dwayne Haskins. Third, he played last year in an offense that would have been considered archaic when Yale was playing for national championships. In a year where he's put in a modern offense - voila - he sets records and wins the Heisman.

And you're cherry picking your examples to prove your hypothesis. In fact the opposite is generally more true - guys that come out early have a larger chance of busting than those who stay. Here's a recent article on the phenomena - https://www.profootballweekly.com/2016/12/05/greg-gabriel-quarterbacks-need-to-think-twice-before-entering-nfl-draft-early/arzc3pk/

It really feels like you're being contrarian just for the sake of it. You DO contribute a lot of good stuff. But lately it's increasingly off the wall.

Edited January 16, 2020 by Andy Dufresne

[Faust 5,005]

 

2020 NFL Draft rumors: Breaking down whether Panthers could trade for No. 1 pick to draft LSU's Joe Burrow

[Ketamine Dreams 738]

1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Well sometimes it's hard to tell what you're saying.

As to Burrow the diagnosis is simple if you look at it as a whole. First, he JUST turned 23 last month. Second, he redshirted at OSU then got stuck behind JT Barrett and Dwayne Haskins. Third, he played last year in an offense that would have been considered archaic when Yale was playing for national championships. In a year where he's put in a modern offense - voila - he sets records and wins the Heisman.

And you're cherry picking your examples to prove your hypothesis. In fact the opposite is generally more true - guys that come out early have a larger chance of busting than those who stay. Here's a recent article on the phenomena - https://www.profootballweekly.com/2016/12/05/greg-gabriel-quarterbacks-need-to-think-twice-before-entering-nfl-draft-early/arzc3pk/

It really feels like you're being contrarian just for the sake of it. You DO contribute a lot of good stuff. But lately it's increasingly off the wall.

Right, I agree. He didn't break out mainly because he didn't have the opportunity to break out prior to this past season.

[Doug B 6,571]

8 minutes ago, Ketamine Dreams said:

Right, I agree. He didn't break out mainly because he didn't have the opportunity to break out prior to this past season.

Not making an equivalence:

Tom Brady would be an example of a guy with legit NFL talent that never got to shine in college. Right?

For RBs, guys like Terrell Davis and Alvin Kamara come to mind.

[Dr. Octopus 15,686]

4 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

That's not at all what I'm implying... you're smarter than that Andy...

He was older than much of his competition. It took him that long to break out; that can be just as much of a red flag as it is for WRs. 

A year or two older than many on the field, most everyone else his age who was great has already declared, he is an extra year seasoned, the game has slowed down for him much more. 

Now he goes to the NFL where none of the above is true... everyone is faster, smarter, stronger, more experienced. That's when a player has to depend on talent. Except when he was an under class man and had to do the same, he wasn't as successful. 

I don't know whether he'll be a bust in the NFL or not (I never really know with QBs) but unlike other positions I don't think age would give a QB an advantage over the guy he was playing against.

And there are legit reasons why it took him so long to "break out" - I'm sure you know those reasons as his "career" is well documented.

[zed2283 585]

He absolutely goes in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts, I don't think there's any question of that.

Everyone poo-poos QBs in 1 QB leagues but IMO there's nothing more valuable than landing a Peyton Manning for 14 years.

[SayWhat? 4,070]

7 minutes ago, zed2283 said:

He absolutely goes in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts, I don't think there's any question of that.

Everyone poo-poos QBs in 1 QB leagues but IMO there's nothing more valuable than landing a Peyton Manning for 14 years.

There is, actually.  It’s drafting a Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, or DeAndre Hopkins instead.  
 

But as for the idea of taking a QB in the 1st, how many “Peyton Manning’s” have there been?  For the sake of ffball discussion, let’s call that a highly profiled top 3 NFL draft pick whom people were smitten on that ended up being a long-term difference maker in fantasy football.  

[kodycutter 858]

Dolphins trading up?

................

Cincinnati Bengals would receive: 

2020 first-round pick (fifth overall)

2020 first-round pick (18th overall)

2020 second-round pick (39th overall)

2021 first-round pick

2021 third-round pick

Miami Dolphins would receive: 

2020 first-round pick (first overall)

......................

[ffmail4me 766]

I realize 1qb dynasty leagues very greatly but I think last year was the first time I saw a QB (Murray) go in the first round of any rookie draft (and I play in 10 leagues now but used to play in 18) Heck they usually go late 2nd or late 3rds in my leagues. Most all my leagues had D. Jones and Haskins available on the wire after the rookie drafts ended. I wouldn’t take a QB in the first unless I was stacked everywhere else and it was just that big a need. 

[Leroy Hoard 13,387]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Theyd be fools to not move this pick. Wow. 

Fools and Bengals in the same sentence?

[Andy Dufresne 11,632]

36 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

doesnt hurt to just ask, vs post a snarky remark based off assumptions 

"What do you mean by this" comes across much better than the choice you made.

 

And no, not trying to be a contrarian. Just bringing up a legitimate point. I guess I could just join the groupthink and rave about how he is so obviously going to be a super star

Now you're going to strike a "stop picking on me" pose? It was a light hearted ribbing you got. 

You say you're not trying to be contrarian and then follow it up in the next sentence by saying you don't want to be part of groupthink - which is, by definition, contrarian.

You're a funny cat.

Anyway, I'm sorry I hurt your feelings. Let's get back to football.

Edited January 17, 2020 by Andy Dufresne

[kodycutter 858]

I feel like Tom Steyer...Hi Andy!

[Andy Dufresne 11,632]

7 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

No, just again stating a fact... if you are unsure of what someone is trying to say, it is probably better more often than not to ask instead of state something snarky. that is, if you want to actually have a conversation 

Well, I was sure. And I'm getting more so with you.

[Edgar 203]

Nothing wrong with picking Burrow at the end of the first. He’s an excellent prospect, and is way ahead of the other QBs. Otherwise I guess I’d pick the 7th best RB? Maybe 5th best WR?

[JohnnyU 3,933]

2 hours ago, zed2283 said:

He absolutely goes in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts, I don't think there's any question of that.

Everyone poo-poos QBs in 1 QB leagues but IMO there's nothing more valuable than landing a Peyton Manning for 14 years.

Maybe in 1qb leagues that gives 6 pts for a TD.  A lot of leagues only give 4 pts per td.  Even at 6 pts it's hard to take a QB in a 1QB league, especially in a draft that is deep at RB and WR like this one.

[JohnnyU 3,933]

28 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Fools and Bengals in the same sentence?

You know what they say, fools and their money soon part ways.  Jk, I like Burrow and the Bengals need a franchise QB.  However, if the Bengals see some warts they could definitely cash in big time on a Burrow trade.

[Faust 5,005]

 

NFL draft: Joe Burrow, en route to White House, still up in air on attending Senior Bowl

 

[Ministry of Pain 5,379]

2 hours ago, kodycutter said:

Dolphins trading up?

................

Cincinnati Bengals would receive: 

2020 first-round pick (fifth overall)

2020 first-round pick (18th overall)

2020 second-round pick (39th overall)

2021 first-round pick

2021 third-round pick

Miami Dolphins would receive: 

2020 first-round pick (first overall)

......................

I hope not. When you can stay put and get another QB that could be a generational talent, you don't trade the farm to move up. QB isn't really Miami's most pressing need right now, better served to try and trade up with Washington for Chase Young IMHO. 

Miami worked too hard to lose so many games and then win so many more the 2nd half of the season to trade all those gems away to move up a couple spots to grab a QB. This draft is loaded at QB, many Vets available walking the streets in the coming weeks, just don't see a real urge for the Phins to bite and take the bait, but it is the Phins. 

Edited January 17, 2020 by Ministry of Pain

[IHEARTFF 1,043]

If the Dolphins wanted the 1.1, they sure had a funny way of showing it in the 2nd half of the season. 

[Deamon 5,322]

1 hour ago, IHEARTFF said:

If the Dolphins wanted the 1.1, they sure had a funny way of showing it in the 2nd half of the season. 

Are you suggesting that Fitzpatrick would/could/should have missed open receivers on purpose so they could get the top draft spot?  Or that an NFL wr would ever purposely drop a catch in order to get a good draft pick?

[Edgar 203]

4 hours ago, IHEARTFF said:

If the Dolphins wanted the 1.1, they sure had a funny way of showing it in the 2nd half of the season. 

No way Fitzpatrick would roll over to help the Dolphins draft his replacement 

[Dr. Octopus 15,686]

10 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

I realize 1qb dynasty leagues very greatly but I think last year was the first time I saw a QB (Murray) go in the first round of any rookie draft (and I play in 10 leagues now but used to play in 18) Heck they usually go late 2nd or late 3rds in my leagues. Most all my leagues had D. Jones and Haskins available on the wire after the rookie drafts ended. I wouldn’t take a QB in the first unless I was stacked everywhere else and it was just that big a need. 

The year Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin came out they both went early in rookie drafts - as high as 1.03 in some.

[JohnnyU 3,933]

1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

The year Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin came out they both went early in rookie drafts - as high as 1.03 in some.

Good point.  Is Burrow thought of as highly as Luck was?

[Dr. Octopus 15,686]

Just now, JohnnyU said:

Good point.  Is Burrow thought of as highly as Luck was?

I don’t believe so generally. Maybe by some.

[King of the Jungle 1,382]

7 hours ago, IHEARTFF said:

If the Dolphins wanted the 1.1, they sure had a funny way of showing it in the 2nd half of the season. 

They traded Minkah, Tunsil, Stills, and Drake away. I think they thought they were safe. 

Edited January 17, 2020 by King of the Jungle

[IHEARTFF 1,043]

7 hours ago, Deamon said:

Are you suggesting that Fitzpatrick would/could/should have missed open receivers on purpose so they could get the top draft spot?  Or that an NFL wr would ever purposely drop a catch in order to get a good draft pick?

 

5 hours ago, Edgar said:

No way Fitzpatrick would roll over to help the Dolphins draft his replacement 

 

1 hour ago, King of the Jungle said:

They traded Minkah, Tunsil, Stills, and Drake away. I think they thought they were safe. 

Of course I don’t think the players should lie down. Maybe they should have traded Fitzmagic to the Steelers or someone else desperate to win. 

[Deamon 5,322]

30 minutes ago, IHEARTFF said:

 

 

Of course I don’t think the players should lie down. Maybe they should have traded Fitzmagic to the Steelers or someone else desperate to win. 

The dolphins had not won a single game at the trade deadline. 

So maybe they should have just released Fitzmagic after he got a couple wins?  C'mon. 

[IHEARTFF 1,043]

3 minutes ago, Deamon said:

The dolphins had not won a single game at the trade deadline. 

So maybe they should have just released Fitzmagic after he got a couple wins?  C'mon. 

I know their turnaround was a surprise to most people, but if they were serious about the 1.1, they should have taken a competent qb off of the roster. 

[Deamon 5,322]

Just now, IHEARTFF said:

I know their turnaround was a surprise to most people, but if they were serious about the 1.1, they should have taken a competent qb off of the roster. 

Lol that's ridiculous. They were 0-7. I find it very unlikely that people were throwing picks at the dolphins for him. 

 

[Deamon 5,322]

Just now, Dr. Dan said:

They could have started Rosen and claimed to be "seeing what they have" and lost the rest of the season. 

 

I think we should just give them the 1.1 for beating NE, forcing them to the Wildcard round, and helping to end their dynasty in glorious fashion 

I think the whole "tanking" thing is so overblown by fans and media. Teams don't purposely lose games. Players and coaches don't hope to lose games.  You could tell by Flores' reactions during games, that he wasn't actively cheering for his players to drop balls and lose games. 

[Dr. Octopus 15,686]

9 minutes ago, IHEARTFF said:

I know their turnaround was a surprise to most people, but if they were serious about the 1.1, they should have taken a competent qb off of the roster. 

They easily could have put Rosen in with the reasoning that they wanted to see what they had in him and if he had a future with the team. Of course they did so earlier in the season and then benched him but it still would have worked.

[Deamon 5,322]

1 minute ago, Dr. Dan said:

I think the coaches and players want to win. They are replaceable and they know it, so of course they want to do well.

The GM may do everything in his or her power to make it difficult to win. And that's what I think happened in Miami. I dont think trading all those players made them better, or more likely to win in 2019

 

1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

They easily could have put Rosen in with the reasoning that they wanted to see what they had in him and if he had a future with the team. Of course they did so earlier in the season and then benched him but it still would have worked.

Is it not the coach (who everyone has admitted wants to try to win games) who makes the decision on the starting qb?

[Dr. Octopus 15,686]

4 minutes ago, Deamon said:

I think the whole "tanking" thing is so overblown by fans and media. Teams don't purposely lose games. Players and coaches don't hope to lose games.  You could tell by Flores' reactions during games, that he wasn't actively cheering for his players to drop balls and lose games. 

Everyone knows the players and coaches are not tanking - the Colts won two of their last three games nearly costing them Luck - but the "plan" heading into the offseason by management was to try and put them in position for a franchise QB. Flores and the players rose above it though.

[Deamon 5,322]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I think the coaches and players want to win. They are replaceable and they know it, so of course they want to do well.

The GM may do everything in his or her power to make it difficult to win. And that's what I think happened in Miami. I dont think trading all those players made them better, or more likely to win in 2019

There's a difference between "gaining assets to help the future and not caring if it loses you games this year" and "doing what it takes to lose games in order to get a better pick".  

I think #1 happens a lot in sports and I don't see any issue with it.  I think #2 is way more rare in sports than armchair gm's at home would like to think.  I get it, the term " tanking" is exciting and makes people giddy. But chances are fitzpatrick wasn't demanding any picks at the point of the trade deadline. 

[Dr. Octopus 15,686]

1 minute ago, Deamon said:

 

Is it not the coach (who everyone has admitted wants to try to win games) who makes the decision on the starting qb?

Generally yes but not always - especially with a rookie HC. The GM could have put some pressure on him if he really wanted to. He didn't obviously. Anyway I'm not sure why this is something to argue over. They clearly were in a rebuild at the very least. If you disagree that's fine.  

[Deamon 5,322]

1 minute ago, Dr. Dan said:

Yes, in most cases. The coach felt Fitzpatrick was their best chance to win, and he was right 

Right. So I don't get the notion that the dolphins "screwed up their tanking efforts".  Who did?  The coach wasn't tanking and he's the one who started fitzpatrick. There wasnt really much else the GM could have realistically done to lose them more games. 

[Deamon 5,322]

1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Generally yes but not always - especially with a rookie HC. The GM could have put some pressure on him if he really wanted to. He didn't obviously. Anyway I'm not sure why this is something to argue over. They clearly were in a rebuild at the very least. If you disagree that's fine.  

I agree they were rebuilding. I dont agree that winning some games was something that upset people in the organization who could have done something about it. They were 0-7 at the deadline and already did more to "look to the future" than any team I can think of in recent memory. 

[Deamon 5,322]

1 minute ago, Dr. Dan said:

Yeah if we want to draw a line in the sand between literally tanking vs making it difficult to win, I'd be on the making it difficult to win side. I suppose the "tanking" term is thrown around too much, or maybe shouldnt be used at all. 

People (not saying you) love to throw it around because it's exciting to think of a team "trying to lose games" when it doesn't happen like this in reality. Twitter was full of some angry fans after they won some games saying they "messed it up" but I don't know who "they" is when it could only be the GM, and he did pretty much everything he could to not care about wins this year. 

[Deamon 5,322]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I think the players overcame a poor roster construction and great odds to win the games they did, which was likely against what the "plan" was in the front office. The GM could have told the coach to play the worst players or I'll find someone who will. but he didnt and that's a good thing. 

I think it's unlikely a coach would do that. If Flores ever got fired or there was bad blood with the GM and he went public saying that, it would not be good.  If a guy is hurt and you shut him down, or if you can get good future picks via trade, yes go for it. There's reasons to do that that are justifiable. It's no one's "fault" the team won games.  It's hard to go 0-16 in the NFL when 75+ players and coaches want to win and practice all week to win the next game. 

[Acrobat7 145]

16 hours ago, kodycutter said:

Dolphins trading up?

................

Cincinnati Bengals would receive: 

2020 first-round pick (fifth overall)

2020 first-round pick (18th overall)

2020 second-round pick (39th overall)

2021 first-round pick

2021 third-round pick

Miami Dolphins would receive: 

2020 first-round pick (first overall)

......................

That would be a heavy price for playing Fitzpatrick over Rosen. 

[zed2283 585]

18 hours ago, SayWhat? said:

There is, actually.  It’s drafting a Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, or DeAndre Hopkins instead.  
 

But as for the idea of taking a QB in the 1st, how many “Peyton Manning’s” have there been?  For the sake of ffball discussion, let’s call that a highly profiled top 3 NFL draft pick whom people were smitten on that ended up being a long-term difference maker in fantasy football.  

So far in my poll, 2/3 of respondents think it's Manning.

[Statorama 2,883]

16 hours ago, kodycutter said:

Dolphins trading up?

................

Cincinnati Bengals would receive: 

2020 first-round pick (fifth overall)

2020 first-round pick (18th overall)

2020 second-round pick (39th overall)

2021 first-round pick

2021 third-round pick

Miami Dolphins would receive: 

2020 first-round pick (first overall)

......................

I love me some Burrow, but I can't see a team with as many holes as the Dolphins have making a move like this.  Heck, just sign Bridgewater and use those picks otherwise.

[Doug B 6,571]

8 minutes ago, Statorama said:

I love me some Burrow, but I can't see a team with as many holes as the Dolphins have making a move like this. 

Have you seen Swimmer trying to sell this exact scenario for the Saints over on Saintsreport?

@SaintsInDome2006 @gianmarco @saintfool @Nathan R. Jessep @Shawnky @Henry Ford

[Henry Ford 60,520]

23 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Have you seen Swimmer trying to sell this exact scenario for the Saints over on Saintsreport?

@SaintsInDome2006 @gianmarco @saintfool @Nathan R. Jessep @Shawnky @Henry Ford

I try not to believe any draft trade speculation until it actually happens.  That said, trading the meat of multiple drafts plus Thomas and Kamara for a rookie QB is not a good decision in my opinion.

[Andy Dufresne 11,632]

Someone is positing a Saints trade involving Thomas, Kamara, AND picks?

If that doesn't work are they planning on adding a velociraptor, a moon base, and eleventy billion dollars?

[Ketamine Dreams 738]

4 hours ago, Deamon said:

Right. So I don't get the notion that the dolphins "screwed up their tanking efforts".  Who did?  The coach wasn't tanking and he's the one who started fitzpatrick. There wasnt really much else the GM could have realistically done to lose them more games. 

You could argue the coach and remaining players screwed up the GM's attempt at tanking.

[jtd13 572]

18 hours ago, kodycutter said:

Dolphins trading up?

................

Cincinnati Bengals would receive: 

2020 first-round pick (fifth overall)

2020 first-round pick (18th overall)

2020 second-round pick (39th overall)

2021 first-round pick

2021 third-round pick

Miami Dolphins would receive: 

2020 first-round pick (first overall)

......................

This is the Bengals publicly leaking their starting asking price. No way Miami gives this up.

[Leroy Hoard 13,387]

18 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Someone is positing a Saints trade involving Thomas, Kamara, AND picks?

If that doesn't work are they planning on adding a velociraptor, a moon base, and eleventy billion dollars?

Now you are just being silly.  Everyone knows the moon landing was fake.

[Statorama 2,883]

1 hour ago, Doug B said:

Have you seen Swimmer trying to sell this exact scenario for the Saints over on Saintsreport?

MT + AK + Picks is a non-starter.  I'm not even sure the Saints would entertain a Cam Jordan / AK / Picks scenario.

But if the Saints brain trust has gotten together and determined it's time to blow things up, you can make a case for MT + AK.  MT makes a lot of bread and AK will soon.  Frees up future cap space for the Saints and allows them to build a team around JB.  But why would the Bengals do that?  They don't seem like the kind of team that wants to take on big salaries.  As much as MT would help them (or anyone) I don't think they'd take him instead of a bunch of picks.  WR seems to be one of the "strengths" of the Bengals anyway.

I have nothing but my gut telling me this, but I think the other player they're sniffing around (if that story has any truth) is Lattimore.  He has a reasonable contract for a shut-down type, and would be a great addition on the Bengals at a sore point of need.  AK + Lattimore + a couple of high picks?  Doesn't sound all that crazy.

The Saints have shown that when they want a shiny toy they will overpay to get it (I'm looking at you, Davenport).

[Doug B 6,571]

15 minutes ago, Statorama said:

The Saints have shown that when they want a shiny toy they will overpay to get it (I'm looking at you, Davenport).

The 1sts given up for Davenport could've been:

2018 -- LB Leighton Van Der Esch or LB Darius Leonard
2019 -- WR Deebo Samuel or Mecole Hardman

And we had DE Trey Hendrickson already in the fold showing out.

Edited January 17, 2020 by Doug B