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Dynasty & Redraft: QB Joe Burrow, Bengals


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I need to see him in the senior bowl to really be sure though

Yeah, if I can only have a QB on my dynasty team for 14 instead of 16 years...I don't want him either.

Someone is positing a Saints trade involving Thomas, Kamara, AND picks? If that doesn't work are they planning on adding a velociraptor, a moon base, and eleventy billion dollars?

43 minutes ago, Doug B said:

:(

The 1sts given up for Davenport could've been:

2018 -- LB Leighton Van Der Esch or LB Darius Leonard
2019 -- WR Deebo Samuel or Mecole Hardman

And we had DE Trey Hendrickson already in the fold showing out.

Not only that, it's potential capital when you want to pull off a Jalen Ramsey type trade.

Thinking that Vander Esch could have been on the Saints but isn't makes my tummy hurt.

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4 hours ago, zed2283 said:

So far in my poll, 2/3 of respondents think it's Manning.

You’re comparing a guy with a solid fifteen year track record to one with three.  Of course some are going take the “safe” pick.  That’s like offering someone a guaranteed rate of return of 20%, or a 50/50 chance of doubling their money. Not sure what that poll is proving?  Put one up about how many would prefer Mahomes or McCaffrey at the start of their career, knowing what we know three years in, and see what the results are in a 1 QB ppr league.  By the way, you didn’t answer the question.  How many “Manning’s” have there been?  A top 3 drafted NFL QB with elite fantasy potential whom ended up providing anywhere near elite fantasy potential.  Probably one is my guess.  I’d say odds are highly against number two being Burrows.  But hey, maybe you’ll get Eli Manning for fifteen years?

 

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2 hours ago, Statorama said:

MT + AK + Picks is a non-starter.  I'm not even sure the Saints would entertain a Cam Jordan / AK / Picks scenario.

But if the Saints brain trust has gotten together and determined it's time to blow things up, you can make a case for MT + AK.  MT makes a lot of bread and AK will soon.  Frees up future cap space for the Saints and allows them to build a team around JB.  But why would the Bengals do that?  They don't seem like the kind of team that wants to take on big salaries.  As much as MT would help them (or anyone) I don't think they'd take him instead of a bunch of picks.  WR seems to be one of the "strengths" of the Bengals anyway.

I have nothing but my gut telling me this, but I think the other player they're sniffing around (if that story has any truth) is Lattimore.  He has a reasonable contract for a shut-down type, and would be a great addition on the Bengals at a sore point of need.  AK + Lattimore + a couple of high picks?  Doesn't sound all that crazy.

The Saints have shown that when they want a shiny toy they will overpay to get it (I'm looking at you, Davenport).

I agree, GB. 

The, shall I say, baffling uncertainty that AK displayed at times this year was troubling for me. I don't know if it was injury induced or if it was defenses figuring him out a little bit or just him getting a little shellshocked. I'd be ecstatic with a trade of AK and anybody not named Brees or MT (ok and maybe Taysom, not for QB status, but for the wildcard factor) to keep Joey B in-state! 

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51 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

You’re comparing a guy with a solid fifteen year track record to one with three.  Of course some are going take the “safe” pick.  That’s like offering someone a guaranteed rate of return of 20%, or a 50/50 chance of doubling their money. Not sure what that poll is proving?  Put one up about how many would prefer Mahomes or McCaffrey at the start of their career, knowing what we know three years in, and see what the results are in a 1 QB ppr league.  By the way, you didn’t answer the question.  How many “Manning’s” have there been?  A top 3 drafted NFL QB with elite fantasy potential whom ended up providing anywhere near elite fantasy potential.  Probably one is my guess.  I’d say odds are highly against number two being Burrows.  But hey, maybe you’ll get Eli Manning for fifteen years?

 

My favorite post so far today. 

The original comparison is way out of whack.

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2 hours ago, SayWhat? said:

You’re comparing a guy with a solid fifteen year track record to one with three.  Of course some are going take the “safe” pick.  That’s like offering someone a guaranteed rate of return of 20%, or a 50/50 chance of doubling their money. Not sure what that poll is proving?  Put one up about how many would prefer Mahomes or McCaffrey at the start of their career, knowing what we know three years in, and see what the results are in a 1 QB ppr league.  By the way, you didn’t answer the question.  How many “Manning’s” have there been?  A top 3 drafted NFL QB with elite fantasy potential whom ended up providing anywhere near elite fantasy potential.  Probably one is my guess.  I’d say odds are highly against number two being Burrows.  But hey, maybe you’ll get Eli Manning for fifteen years?

 

I'm proving that my original statement was correct.  Peyton Manning is more valuable.  So if you think you've got one (much like the NFL draft) then you take him.  Sure, it's not always going to work out, but neither is the RB.

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10 minutes ago, zed2283 said:

I'm proving that my original statement was correct.  Peyton Manning is more valuable.  So if you think you've got one (much like the NFL draft) then you take him.  Sure, it's not always going to work out, but neither is the RB.

Nice avoidance, again.  Good luck with that “next Peyton Manning” at it would be the first one since...well, apparently Peyton Manning.  Seems like you’ve got good odds to hit that walk off grand slam. :thumbup:

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1 minute ago, SayWhat? said:

Nice avoidance, again.  Good luck with that “next Peyton Manning” at it would be the first one since...well, apparently Peyton Manning.  Seems like you’ve got good odds to hit that walk off grand slam. :thumbup:

What am I avoiding?  I said there's nothing more valuable than landing Peyton Manning for 14 years and you said landing McCaffrey or Kamara was.  I was supporting my position.

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8 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Someone is positing a Saints trade involving Thomas, Kamara, AND picks?

If that doesn't work are they planning on adding a velociraptor, a moon base, and eleventy billion dollars?

Throw in a package of Chuckles and some Necco Wafers and we'll talk.

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On 1/16/2020 at 1:16 PM, Andy Dufresne said:

Well sometimes it's hard to tell what you're saying.

As to Burrow the diagnosis is simple if you look at it as a whole. First, he JUST turned 23 last month. Second, he redshirted at OSU then got stuck behind JT Barrett and Dwayne Haskins. Third, he played last year in an offense that would have been considered archaic when Yale was playing for national championships. In a year where he's put in a modern offense - voila - he sets records and wins the Heisman.

And you're cherry picking your examples to prove your hypothesis. In fact the opposite is generally more true - guys that come out early have a larger chance of busting than those who stay. Here's a recent article on the phenomena - https://www.profootballweekly.com/2016/12/05/greg-gabriel-quarterbacks-need-to-think-twice-before-entering-nfl-draft-early/arzc3pk/

It really feels like you're being contrarian just for the sake of it. You DO contribute a lot of good stuff. But lately it's increasingly off the wall.

Circumstances in college can be everything.  Wasn't Brady relatively unheralded - a backup or, at least, back and forth with other QBs while at Michigan?  

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On 1/16/2020 at 8:38 AM, JohnnyU said:

I doubt he will go in the first round of 1QB leagues.  He could go 1.11 or 1.12 I suppose. 

Presume we're talking dynasty drafts...

I probably need a QB on my main dynasty team and currently hold the 1.08  Personally, I think that might be too high as a top 2-3 WR could still be on the board.   When I look around the league, most teams have a rock solid QB.  I think I could trade into the early 2nd and grab him.  At least that will feel a little less risky.  Going to play this one by ear.  A lot could change based on draft spot.  He might be available at 2.08 as a Bengal or he could be off the board before 1.08 if he lands in a prime spot.

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12 hours ago, DropKick said:

Presume we're talking dynasty drafts...

I probably need a QB on my main dynasty team and currently hold the 1.08  Personally, I think that might be too high as a top 2-3 WR could still be on the board.   When I look around the league, most teams have a rock solid QB.  I think I could trade into the early 2nd and grab him.  At least that will feel a little less risky.  Going to play this one by ear.  A lot could change based on draft spot.  He might be available at 2.08 as a Bengal or he could be off the board before 1.08 if he lands in a prime spot.

yes, talking dynasty.  Is there any other kind?

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1 hour ago, King of the Jungle said:

Joe Burrow in a Louisiana market is a dream scenario from a business perspective. Make it happen Saints.

Going to be tough considering they have the 24th pick and no 2nd round pick.

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22 hours ago, Doug B said:

When you posted it it was the first I'd heard of it, by the afternoon two people mentioned it to me. Thanks for @'ing me.

I'll say I find the rumor believable, in the sense I believe there is a leak at the camp, otoh there is a lot of scuttlebutt at camp. The media area at Saints camp has this trainer talking about this, this guy talking about that. And I believe that the Saints truly analyze everything, so yeah have the Saints started gaming out the draft to the nth possibility and every last scenario? Yes, I could see that and I could see getting a QB and the 1.1 and this specific QB as part of that. So 'the Saints have explored what it would take to get Burrow' is to me believable, but by the same token I don't think they'd actually jump through these hoops. I've had this bug about the front office for some time now because I wonder who is really making the calls. Jeff Ireland? Yeah I could see him doing this. Is it Mickey Loomis? No. Peyton? No, I don't think he gives up on Brees until Brees gives up. Has Brees given them the notice it's just one more year? Then it becomes more imperative. Who knows as far as that is concerned. But we know that premium QB picks don't sit for 2 years (except I guess Steve Young and Aaron Rodgers) and we also know the Saints are never ditching Brees.

And Davenport was coming on but he's missed the playoffs two straight years. Do SP and the front office really internally think that was worth it or are they gunshy. The idea of a McLauren or AJ Brown having been paired with Thomas is just mindblowing. And Hendrickson had the play of the game vs the Vikes (that was never called). Davenport is starting to look like a thoroughbred who is too easily injured, so they fell in love with the athleticism, got it, but are they gunshy now? 

There's no way of knowing what Brees is thinking, but by the same token maybe the Saints ought to think about sitting tight for a while and getting back to hitting on lower draft picks... like they did with Boston Scott. And frankly Michael Thomas was a hit with a lower pick, where they got him was ridiculous in retrospect. Hopefully that's what they're focusing on.

 

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21 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Someone is positing a Saints trade involving Thomas, Kamara, AND picks?

If that doesn't work are they planning on adding a velociraptor, a moon base, and eleventy billion dollars?

It's technically picks, Kamara + ?.  So the ? is any premium player that supposedly the Bengals would want, so it could be Lattimore for instance, or Ramczyk. I personally see those guys on the same level fwiw. Lattimore's arrival changed the defense, I don't care what PFF ranks him, and Ramczyk arriving coincided with the refocus on run success.  I guess the funny thing is if the Tigers hadn't recalibrated their offense with a Saints assistant Burrow could have been a mid or lower round pick available for the taking. - It's also funny because this regime has by and large stayed away from picking LSU players. I think I can recall them drafting one since 2006 despite all the talent that has been on display year after year. The school they love is Ohio State.

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2 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

Joe Burrow in a Louisiana market is a dream scenario from a business perspective. Make it happen Saints.

Something I've been curious about is how South Ohio is viewing Burrow, because isn't he a local boy there as well? I'd think there would be a lot of enthusiasm in Cincy. Taylor is a pretty terrific fit also I'd think.

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1 hour ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Something I've been curious about is how South Ohio is viewing Burrow, because isn't he a local boy there as well? I'd think there would be a lot of enthusiasm in Cincy. Taylor is a pretty terrific fit also I'd think.

I agree....he really is not a bad fit anywhere obviously. Cincy is lucky to be in their position.

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40 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

I agree....he really is not a bad fit anywhere obviously. Cincy is lucky to be in their position.

99% chance he is in Cincinnati in 2020 but it would be interesting to read Joe's mind as to where he would most like to be.

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5 hours ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

It's technically picks, Kamara + ?.  So the ? is any premium player that supposedly the Bengals would want, so it could be Lattimore for instance, or Ramczyk. I personally see those guys on the same level fwiw. Lattimore's arrival changed the defense, I don't care what PFF ranks him, and Ramczyk arriving coincided with the refocus on run success.  I guess the funny thing is if the Tigers hadn't recalibrated their offense with a Saints assistant Burrow could have been a mid or lower round pick available for the taking. - It's also funny because this regime has by and large stayed away from picking LSU players. I think I can recall them drafting one since 2006 despite all the talent that has been on display year after year. The school they love is Ohio State.

Would Kamara be of much value to a team that already has Mixon?   Thomas would be a different story.  But who needs a QB more than Cincy?  Really can't see the Bengals trading out of that pick unless Burrow isn't the guy they want.

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16 minutes ago, DropKick said:

Would Kamara be of much value to a team that already has Mixon?   Thomas would be a different story.  But who needs a QB more than Cincy?  Really can't see the Bengals trading out of that pick unless Burrow isn't the guy they want.

That whole Kamara for Burrow rumour might be the stupidest thing I've read this year.

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16 minutes ago, DropKick said:

Would Kamara be of much value to a team that already has Mixon?   Thomas would be a different story.  But who needs a QB more than Cincy?  Really can't see the Bengals trading out of that pick unless Burrow isn't the guy they want.

Was going to say similar. Positionally it makes little sense for Cincy. 

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On 1/17/2020 at 10:27 AM, Doug B said:

That thread is ridiculous, and the fans clamoring for NO to get Burrow at all costs are dumb.  The team is built to win now.  We need all the draft picks we have as OL, DL, WR, and probably LB need to be addressed.  I like Burrow as a prospect, but he's far from a for sure thing.  No need to set the franchise back for a young QB.

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11 hours ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Something I've been curious about is how South Ohio is viewing Burrow, because isn't he a local boy there as well? I'd think there would be a lot of enthusiasm in Cincy. Taylor is a pretty terrific fit also I'd think.

Yes. For sure he is being viewed as a local kid coming home. This is a gold mine for the Bengals.  Besides marketing and fan excitement, let’s say Burrow is a huge star. Who is ever going to be more likely to resign and stay the face of the franchise for a 2nd contract than a southern Ohio kid?

Besides all the other reasons why the Saints idea is weird, Joe Mixon and Alvin Kamara on the same team makes zero sense. 

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I was listening to Cecil Lammey on local sports talk here in Denver yesterday.  He was recently at the Shrine Bowl and said there was a buzz that Cincinnati is enamored with Herbert.  Would they be dumb enough to not trade down if so?

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10 hours ago, Shawnky said:

I was listening to Cecil Lammey on local sports talk here in Denver yesterday.  He was recently at the Shrine Bowl and said there was a buzz that Cincinnati is enamored with Herbert.  Would they be dumb enough to not trade down if so?

Paul Brown just rolled over in his grave.

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11 hours ago, cheese said:

Yes. For sure he is being viewed as a local kid coming home. This is a gold mine for the Bengals.  Besides marketing and fan excitement, let’s say Burrow is a huge star. Who is ever going to be more likely to resign and stay the face of the franchise for a 2nd contract than a southern Ohio kid?

Besides all the other reasons why the Saints idea is weird, Joe Mixon and Alvin Kamara on the same team makes zero sense. 

I know this is going to be splitting hairs, but Burrow is from SE Ohio.  I'm from Ohio and I think the state is split more East-West than North-South.  So if I were guessing, I'd guess that Burrow actually grew up a Browns fan.

But yes, an Ohio boy being the face of an Ohio franchise makes sense for all.

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1 minute ago, Bracie Smathers said:

Adam Schefter‏Verified account @AdamSchefter

Bengals have no intention of trading the No. 1 overall draft pick no matter the interest they get in it, per league sources.

9:39 AM - 19 Jan 2020

Well alrighty then!!  That settles it, now we can move on to other discussions.

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4 hours ago, Bracie Smathers said:

Adam Schefter‏Verified account @AdamSchefter

Bengals have no intention of trading the No. 1 overall draft pick no matter the interest they get in it, per league sources.

9:39 AM - 19 Jan 2020

No duh, Schefter. 

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On 1/19/2020 at 6:20 PM, lod001 said:

No duh, Schefter. 

In fairness, the Bengals can save money on scouting and plane tickets to the Combine by just waiting until Burrow comes home to visit family, then setting a meet-up at a Waffle House. 

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4 hours ago, DAG said:

In fairness, the Bengals can save money on scouting and plane tickets to the Combine by just waiting until Burrow comes home to visit family, then setting a meet-up at a Waffle House

Nuh-uh. Waffle House charges for their food. Mama Burrow will be expected to cook and set places for Bengals brass.

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13 hours ago, Statorama said:
22 hours ago, Doug B said:

Nuh-uh. Waffle House charges for their food. Mama Burrow will be expected to cook and set places for Bengals brass.

Don't forget setting up the guest room for a couple of days

MIke Brown and crew pulling up in the RV like Uncle Eddie in Christmas Vacation :D 

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