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Senate Majority, 2021 (1 Viewer)

Henry Ford

Henry Ford

Footballguy
The Cook Political Report has released an article today indicating that for the first time it appears that the Senate Majority is actually in play in this election.

Alabama and Michigan are in play as far as Democrat seats go.

Colorado, Arizona, and Maine are still in play, current Republican seats.

However, it appears that the Democrats have gained enough ground that Iowa, North Carolina, and Georgia are now legitimate toss-up seats, currently held by Republicans.  And this with nearly a year to go.

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/senate-overview/majority-play

 
I don't think that the electorate will shift enough to flip the Senate. I think the Democrats might have a net gain of one seat, but that's it. Even if people are upset with their Senator for various reasons, it won't be enough to make them vote for uncertainty.

 
[scooter] said:
I don't think that the electorate will shift enough to flip the Senate. I think the Democrats might have a net gain of one seat, but that's it. Even if people are upset with their Senator for various reasons, it won't be enough to make them vote for uncertainty.
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I'm reticent to believe it's really in play, too, but The Cook Political Report is about as unbiased as it gets in these analyses.

 
Henry Ford said:
Any tips on increasing the population of Louisiana?
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1. Relocate all the gators to the border moot.

2. Make Mardi Gras, Jan 6th or whenever through fat Tuesday, a mandatory paid holiday for all LA residents. 

I'm deathly afraid of getting drunk, passing out and eaten by a gator.  Make these happen and I'll move my family.

 
beef said:
1. Relocate all the gators to the border moot.

2. Make Mardi Gras, Jan 6th or whenever through fat Tuesday, a mandatory paid holiday for all LA residents. 

I'm deathly afraid of getting drunk, passing out and eaten by a gator.  Make these happen and I'll move my family.
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It is very unlikely that you will encounter a gator anywhere you'll be getting drunk during Mardi Gras.

 
Some liberal site reported earlier this week that Lindsey Graham is only leading his Dem challenger by two points currently but surely Souf Carolina is too much to hope for. Innit?

 
Mike Pompeo has said he is not going to run for open senate seat from Kansas. That means that Kris Kobach will be the front runner for the Republican nominee. If get gets it that means the Democrats have a legitimate shot at flipping the seat. Kansas hasn’t had a democratic senator since 1932, but Kobach is toxic.

 
tuffnutt said:
Mike Pompeo has said he is not going to run for open senate seat from Kansas. That means that Kris Kobach will be the front runner for the Republican nominee. If get gets it that means the Democrats have a legitimate shot at flipping the seat. Kansas hasn’t had a democratic senator since 1932, but Kobach is toxic.
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Between Pompeo calling out for Senate and De La Isla calling in for the KS-02 Congressional race, I’m energized.  
 

I wanted to see Sarah Smarsh hop in the Senate race on the D side.  Having a competitive primary in KS-03 for 2018 got voters interested early and seeing so many volunteers for other candidates show up for Davids was a huge reason why she won.  But the party seems ready to back Barbara Bollier.

 
[scooter] said:
I don't think that the electorate will shift enough to flip the Senate. I think the Democrats might have a net gain of one seat, but that's it. Even if people are upset with their Senator for various reasons, it won't be enough to make them vote for uncertainty.
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Probably not, but I think the probability is tied to the dem nominee and where they fall on the spectrum. 

 
I think the Democrats should run a national campaign regarding the Senate- hammer away at the fact that we can’t do anything about healthcare, gun control, or climate change because McConnell won’t allow any bills to come to the floor, and the only way to fix this is a Dem Majority. 

 
I know it's a long shot, but Espy's 46-53 loss to Hyde-Smith in 2018 MS election gives me a little hope as they are facing off again in 2020.  Espy comes across as a conservative natured person at heart and I think he can close the gap.

According to this NYT link (open in cognito mode), it was 479,278 to 410,693 last time.  I'm guessing he could peel away a few thousand votes this year, but the other 50K-ish will have to come from increased voter turnout.  Seems doable, barely.  

 
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I believe that in 2016 not a single Senate race had a result different from the presidential election in that state. So Dems won narrowly in NH/NV but GOP incumbents in PA/WI who were considered goners rude Trump’s coattails to surprise victories. 

Obviously that’s not guaranteed to reoccur this year, but it’s not a bad base-case assumption. It suggests Dems have a good chance of flipping ME/CO, and AL is almost certainly a loss (which, duh). Maybe they can flip AZ if the party continues to improve there, but IA/NC/GA seem like longer shots unless the race really breaks against Trump. (The fact that AZ is a quasi open seat also makes the job a little easier). 

Note that Georgia has two elections this year due to Isaakson’s early retirement, and that historically, dual elections almost always both go the same way.

The other thing to consider is that, whatever you think of the Dem frontrunners, none of them seem particularly well-suited to flip any of the states we’re talking about here. That’s not to say Biden couldn’t win AZ, or Bernie GA or what have you, but they don’t seem more well positioned to do so than any of the other candidates (the way Biden might be if, say, Dems we’re trying to knock off an incumbent in PA)

 
zftcg said:
I believe that in 2016 not a single Senate race had a result different from the presidential election in that state. So Dems won narrowly in NH/NV but GOP incumbents in PA/WI who were considered goners rude Trump’s coattails to surprise victories. 

Obviously that’s not guaranteed to reoccur this year, but it’s not a bad base-case assumption. It suggests Dems have a good chance of flipping ME/CO, and AL is almost certainly a loss (which, duh). Maybe they can flip AZ if the party continues to improve there, but IA/NC/GA seem like longer shots unless the race really breaks against Trump. (The fact that AZ is a quasi open seat also makes the job a little easier). 

Note that Georgia has two elections this year due to Isaakson’s early retirement, and that historically, dual elections almost always both go the same way.

The other thing to consider is that, whatever you think of the Dem frontrunners, none of them seem particularly well-suited to flip any of the states we’re talking about here. That’s not to say Biden couldn’t win AZ, or Bernie GA or what have you, but they don’t seem more well positioned to do so than any of the other candidates (the way Biden might be if, say, Dems we’re trying to knock off an incumbent in PA)
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I would be very surprised if NC isn't blue in 2020.

 
North Carolina just elected a Dem governor so a Senate win isn't out of the question. I realize that the correlation is not perfect.

And I think Arizona has just about had enough of being a red state. Dems have a good candidate there, too.

 
Predictit (which, be careful) has it at ~70/30 for Republicans.

It's spooky how all the Senate races tend to break the same direction.  So all that has to happen is Dems win the five Tossup/Lean R seats (ME, CO, NC, IA, AZ) and not lose anything outside AL.  Neither race in GA is included in those.  NC and ME will probably tell us all we need to know pretty early on election night.

 
Drunken Cowboy said:
I would be very surprised if NC isn't blue in 2020.
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Interesting. Are you basing that off the changing demographics? I'll admit I haven't been paying a ton of attention to NC. Yes, they did elect a Dem governor in 2016, but in the meantime Trump won it by 3.67%, which was more than his margin in Florida and Arizona but less than Georgia and Ohio. My baseline assumption for 2020 is that the map will look mostly the same, and that the states most likely to flip are the three that were closest last time (MI/PA/WI). If FL, AZ or NC flip it probably means Dems are having a very good night. But who knows? If we've learned anything from the Trump Era, it should be that old patterns don't always hold.

 
zftcg said:
Interesting. Are you basing that off the changing demographics? I'll admit I haven't been paying a ton of attention to NC. Yes, they did elect a Dem governor in 2016, but in the meantime Trump won it by 3.67%, which was more than his margin in Florida and Arizona but less than Georgia and Ohio. My baseline assumption for 2020 is that the map will look mostly the same, and that the states most likely to flip are the three that were closest last time (MI/PA/WI). If FL, AZ or NC flip it probably means Dems are having a very good night. But who knows? If we've learned anything from the Trump Era, it should be that old patterns don't always hold.
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The 2018 election results have swayed towards blue. Plus, I expect all candidates will do at least 2-3% better than Hillary. 

 
zftcg said:
Interesting. Are you basing that off the changing demographics? I'll admit I haven't been paying a ton of attention to NC. Yes, they did elect a Dem governor in 2016, but in the meantime Trump won it by 3.67%, which was more than his margin in Florida and Arizona but less than Georgia and Ohio. My baseline assumption for 2020 is that the map will look mostly the same, and that the states most likely to flip are the three that were closest last time (MI/PA/WI). If FL, AZ or NC flip it probably means Dems are having a very good night. But who knows? If we've learned anything from the Trump Era, it should be that old patterns don't always hold.
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I think a lot of the confidence around NC was the special election events.  Areas Trump was winning by double digits went to the 1-2% range if not flipping completely Dem.  NC was a textbook illustration of how the suburbs were running away from Trump and the nonsense.  If that trend continues a Senate race to flip a seat is a reasonable guess.

 
Stealthycat said:
how believable is a report like that ?
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It is an opinion piece. But the dems have outspent the reps by a 2-1 margin in the 8 battle states. There is a reason they are throwing so much money at it - and it is becasue they believe they have a chance. 

 
zftcg said:
Interesting. Are you basing that off the changing demographics? I'll admit I haven't been paying a ton of attention to NC. Yes, they did elect a Dem governor in 2016, but in the meantime Trump won it by 3.67%, which was more than his margin in Florida and Arizona but less than Georgia and Ohio. My baseline assumption for 2020 is that the map will look mostly the same, and that the states most likely to flip are the three that were closest last time (MI/PA/WI). If FL, AZ or NC flip it probably means Dems are having a very good night. But who knows? If we've learned anything from the Trump Era, it should be that old patterns don't always hold.
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This. 

 
Drunken Cowboy said:
The 2018 election results have swayed towards blue. Plus, I expect all candidates will do at least 2-3% better than Hillary. 
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If you're right, the election will be a very good one for Democrats, and all kinds of marginal Senate seats will be in play.

 
FF Ninja said:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/477444-poll-democrat-mark-kelly-leads-incumbent-mcsally-in-arizona-senate-race
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Encouraging news. I think Senate races during a presidential year are generally determined by the top of the ticket, but candidate quality can affect things at the margins, and to the extent that it does, Democrats have a really strong draw here running a compelling candidate like Kelly against McSally, who's already lost one statewide race. It is true that Kelly is a first-timer, so maybe he doesn't have the natural political skills needed, but his backstory is incredibly compelling.

 
whoknew said:
Its too bad either Beto or Castro isn't running against Cornyn. I think they would have a legit shot here in Texas.
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MJ Hegar is a good candidate.  She closed a huge gap in the 2016 TX-31 race and almost pulled it off.  Just needs more state-wide exposure.

 
joffer said:
MJ Hegar is a good candidate.  She closed a huge gap in the 2016 TX-31 race and almost pulled it off.  Just needs more state-wide exposure.
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Plus I'm not so sure Beto or either Castro would have a better chance. Beto did a fantastic job in 2018, but there does seem to be a certain John Edwards air about him (just to be clear, I mean pre-slezoid-cheating-on-his-cancer-stricken-wife Edwards). The more you get to know him, the less impressive he seems. As for the Castro brothers, they have had multiple chances to run statewide and have passed up every one of them. Maybe they were just being prudent, and knew they were going to get killed, but if so, that doesn't inspire a lot of confidence that they could win in the future.  

 
Cal Cunningham will go up against Thom Tillis in NC.  This is a good chance for a flip.

In a potential general election race, Cunningham has a 48% to 43% edge over Tillis.

The NBC News/Marist poll, taken from Feb. 23 through Feb. 27, surveyed 2,120 registered voters with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.6 percentage points. It polled 568 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 5.1 percentage points.
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joffer said:
Cal Cunningham will go up against Thom Tillis in NC.  This is a good chance for a flip.
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😂 Voted for his opponent.  That said, Tillis needs to be retired.  Will be voting Cunningham if Sanders is the presidential candidate or a decent 3rd party candidate runs.

 
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