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Senate Majority, 2021 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Henry Ford
- Start date
caustic
Footballguy
The 538 forecast’s median outcome is Biden +8 nationally, which (IMO) would get him 7-8 of those. AZ, FL, MI, MN, NC, PA, and WI all went for Trump by <3.5 last time around, so just using uniform swing, a national 6-point shift to Biden probably puts those in Joe’s camp. Maybe GA too (Trump +5 in ‘16) but it’s kind of inelastic and has unusually harsh voter suppression.
Kind of a crapshoot since we don’t actually know what Biden’s margin is going to be, though. I’m fairly confident that it’ll be within 3 points of the 538 average, but there’s a huge difference between Biden +6 and Biden +12.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
What will be the net change in Senate seats be after the election?
Democratic Party Gain 4 Seats+375
Democratic Party Gain 3 Seats+600
Democratic Party Gain 1 Seat+1200
Republican Party Gain 2 Seats+2000
Democratic Party Gain 5 Seats+550
Democratic Party Gain 2 Seats+850
Neither Party Gains A Seat+1200
Republican Party Gains 4 or More Seats+2000
Democratic Party Gains 7 or More Seats+550
Democratic Party Gains 6 Seats+900
Republican Party Gain 1 Seat+1600
Republican Party Gain 3 Seats+2800
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Shula-holic
Footballguy
https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1323310902112866304
Imagine if this pans out, 50-48 with 2 GA runoffs deciding if it's 50-50 or 52-48 essentially. GA will be a pitched, nasty battle with money poured in from everywhere.
Imagine if this pans out, 50-48 with 2 GA runoffs deciding if it's 50-50 or 52-48 essentially. GA will be a pitched, nasty battle with money poured in from everywhere.
sho nuff
Footballguy
In the other thread I think Dems picked one up...was it Colorado? Gardner/Hickenlooper?
Mile High
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
Joe Summer
Footballguy
Lindsey Graham outperforming his poll numbers by 2% and cruising to an easy victory.
At some point these polling companies just might want to give an automatic 1-2 point boost to every Republican.
At some point these polling companies just might want to give an automatic 1-2 point boost to every Republican.
Summer Wheat
Footballguy
Wow kind of shocked here. 100 million dollars were spent to defeat Graham. Most $$$$ spent in Senate history.Joe Summer said:
I think about all the money spent on these campaigns and what good it could do in communities.
sho nuff
Footballguy
Yeah...sad how much is spent and how often its just spewing negative garbage about other people.
jm192
Footballguy
Was thinking this too.
I think McGrath spent 70 something million in KY to lose significantly to McConnell. Mind blowing that people give this kind of money to politicians.
People in KY have been saying for months they were lighting money on fire. It is what it is, sadly.
Summer Wheat
Footballguy
jm192
Footballguy
Billboard companies, advertising companies.
A lot of these Senate races are getting a lot of out of state support trying to flip the Senate. So it's not necessarily money from Kentucky or South Carolina. But still. Go help the people suffering in your own state.
jm192
Footballguy
Rich Conway
Footballguy
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Polls were wrong again.
Dogfight for Senate seat in Michigan as John James could flip Peters seat but it will be tough to hang on. James up by 30K votes with 91% in. Going to go down to the wire.
Would be nice to get a black Senator voted in.
Last edited by a moderator:
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
$200 million dollars spent to lose to Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham by double digits.
But remember, we need to amend the first amendment to get money out of politics because people can buy elections.
Summer Wheat
Footballguy
Well it is looking like GOP will keep control of the Senate as some of the predicted flips are not coming to fruition.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Remember when they were going to add four liberal justices to the supreme court just because they could?
beef
Footballguy
Summer Wheat
Footballguy
jm192
Footballguy
People like to dismiss the court packing issue. But it gave the GOP a talking point and a way for them to make voters worry about their opponents. And I think it played a role---even if small.
I was all set to vote for Biden in the summer. And then they were going to pack the courts, end the fillibuster, add new states, etc. so the Republicans could never combat them--well I don't want that.
And maybe those concerns are overblown. But the Democrats didn't seem to worried about dismissing those concerns. And I think it hurt.
Bluesbomber
Footballguy
Did you mind Repubs doing a flip and cramming a 2nd conservative on the court after saying the people should decide before last election? Republican politicians have NO credibility or ethics these days. They do not even hide their blatant disregard for their own stated stances.
jm192
Footballguy
I don't mind them cramming ACB Through.
I don't think the way they handled Garland was right.
That still doesn't mean I approve of adding enough seats to give yourself the majority.
gianmarco
Footballguy
jm192
Footballguy
I THINK* if no one gets 50%, the top two do a run off.
Logically, Loffler should be favored because Doug Collins has 20+% and that’ll shift to her.
I think we’re seeing record voting numbers nationwide for a myriad of reasons—but a big part of it is still the “get rid of Trump” stimulus. If Trump loses, That’s obviously gone and in my mind hurts the Dem in the run off.
But it may be that GA comes out energized after removing Trump and wanting to limit the R advantage in the Senate.
As others have pointed out, about to be a lot of crazy spending.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Interesting.
But, then you look at the rest of the candidates and they are all Democrats until you get pretty low. And those totals are 16.4% combined. So with Warnock already at 32.3%, that's 48.7% total compared to 46.3% for Loeffler+Collins.
So, unless there's something I'm missing there or it's predicted otherwise, that goes D as well. Still not enough, though, as that's only 49.
Need either Ossoff or Cunningham to pull off a late flip.
Perdue dipping under 50% could be key because it would send it to second runoff. There’s no telling what the turnout will be because you use lose the pro-Trump vote but all the anti-Trump. I have a hard time seeing MAGA voters turning out after a Trump loss, so both seats could turn blue.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
I am not going to hold my breath, but it looks like the democrats can win a statewide election in Georgia now. They have a shot
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Under 50 now. Runoff for both Georgia seats, likely to determine control of the senate.
jm192
Footballguy
Rich Conway
Footballguy
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Joe Summer
Footballguy
I saw a quote the other day which said something to the effect of "Democrats spent $200 million to lose 2 seats by double digits in Kentucky and North Carolina."
So, go ahead and change that quote to "1.2 billion" and "4 seats."
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