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Senate Majority, 2021


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26 minutes ago, Rich Conway said:

I think I'm still articulating poorly.  Let me rephrase in the form of a question.

Beyond a pure $N check to individuals, what else does the GOP want?

I honestly don't know what all they want.  But It shouldn't be what they want or what the Dems want.  

If they want a 5 billion dollar package--(I'm making numbers up), and 1/2 of that is checks to families--do that part today.  Send families checks.  

Then go back and wrestle over a 2.5 billion dollar package and how to spend that money.  I would think the things Pelosi is fighting for--she would still want to get done.  I would think the same goes for Mitch.

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Listen chief, if your little "poll" can't accurately predict a 77,000 vote margin of victory over 3 states while losing popular vote by 3 million, while accurately predicting every other major race, w

Cunningham’s win probability on 538 is now...           69% 😎

6 minutes ago, jm192 said:

I honestly don't know what all they want.  But It shouldn't be what they want or what the Dems want.  

If they want a 5 billion dollar package--(I'm making numbers up), and 1/2 of that is checks to families--do that part today.  Send families checks.  

Then go back and wrestle over a 2.5 billion dollar package and how to spend that money.  I would think the things Pelosi is fighting for--she would still want to get done.  I would think the same goes for Mitch.

Some articles on it:

One

Two

Three

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3 hours ago, Gatorman said:

I think it will be as close as the election, quite frankly, and the money about to be spent in Ga is going to be astronomical.  Trump will still be in office for the runoff so his anger/craziness will help/hurt as much as it did in the general.

Now, can Stacey Abrams get those who turned out and turned Ga. Blue today back in a month or so?  That will be the big question.  The fact that Ga. is Blue today makes a big differnce

Will the SC have overturned ObamaCare by the time these runoffs happen?  That could play into this.

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22 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:
1 hour ago, Chaz McNulty said:

Will the SC have overturned ObamaCare by the time these runoffs happen?  That could play into this.

The case hasn't been argued yet, it seems very unlikely we would have an opinion in less than two months.

For hot button issues like this, the Supreme Court typically releases the opinion at the very end of the term (late June, early July). 

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21 hours ago, gianmarco said:

Btw, maybe this is better placed in another thread, but I think the power the Senate Majority Leader wields in certain instances is excessive.  I don't know how we fix it.  But, prime example is McConnell deciding to not even consider Garland 4 years ago.  Another is the ability to not even bring items up for consideration and essentially doing nothing when the House has spent time and energy on legislature.  One person shouldn't have that kind of power as part of a large BODY of elected officials. 

I don't say that as an attack on Republicans.  I'm sure Democrats have probably done the same in the past. 

I think that should go for any party that is in power.  It's an abuse of power, IMO.

The power of both the Senate majority leader and the Speaker of the House is excessive.

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23 hours ago, Da Guru said:

House losses bother Spanberger.

Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., a former CIA officer who narrowly defeated her opponent in a moderate suburban district around Richmond, was blunt with her colleagues about the results.

"From a congressional standpoint, it was a failure. It was not a success," she said. "We lost members we shouldn't have lost."

She said Democrats should watch GOP ads and the attacks leveled against members before deciding how to talk about the issues.

"We have to commit to not saying the words "defund the police" ever again," she said. "We have to never use the words 'socialist' or 'socialism' ever again."

MORE: Democrats keep House majority but 'Republicans defied the odds'

"If we are classifying Tuesday as a success and we run this way again, we will get f------ torn apart in 2022," she said flatly.

Apparently Pelosi said she disagreed with this because they won the Presidency and the House.  Which seems like an incredible moving of the goal posts.  There was going to be a huge blue wave.  They were going to take the Senate.  They were going to expand their lead in the House.  It looks like the GOP will hold the Senate.  The GOP also made up ground in the House.  

I think Spanberger makes great points.  

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1 minute ago, jm192 said:

I think Spanberger makes great points.  

I'd summarize as, "Well, she's not wrong."  Frankly, Democrats have never* been terribly good at messaging.

* "Never" meaning "in my adult memory", which is reasonably extensive (and get off my lawn).

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23 hours ago, Rich Conway said:

I'd summarize as, "Well, she's not wrong."  Frankly, Democrats have never* been terribly good at messaging.

* "Never" meaning "in my adult memory", which is reasonably extensive (and get off my lawn).

Dems have seemed to be better as the opposition party.  Seems like when we are in control everything backfires the next election.

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16 hours ago, gianmarco said:

Alaska

So while Alaska seems a done deal, it really isn't. All the votes outstanding are mail in votes. If they break 70% D, like they have in other states, Alaska could still flip.

They won't start counting for another 2 days.

Are they waiting for the sun to rise again?

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I guess a lot of people were expecting it--but I was nervous enough.  

Tillis won in NC.

And Alaska was called for Sullivan but that was never in question.  

GOP just needs 1 of 2 in GA, though as so many have already pointed out--it seems insanely unlikely there's a split.

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37 minutes ago, jm192 said:

I guess a lot of people were expecting it--but I was nervous enough.  

Tillis won in NC.

And Alaska was called for Sullivan but that was never in question.  

GOP just needs 1 of 2 in GA, though as so many have already pointed out--it seems insanely unlikely there's a split.

give one to each side and save the half a billion $

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On 11/6/2020 at 9:47 AM, Da Guru said:

House losses bother Spanberger.

Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., a former CIA officer who narrowly defeated her opponent in a moderate suburban district around Richmond, was blunt with her colleagues about the results.

"From a congressional standpoint, it was a failure. It was not a success," she said. "We lost members we shouldn't have lost."

She said Democrats should watch GOP ads and the attacks leveled against members before deciding how to talk about the issues.

"We have to commit to not saying the words "defund the police" ever again," she said. "We have to never use the words 'socialist' or 'socialism' ever again."

MORE: Democrats keep House majority but 'Republicans defied the odds'

"If we are classifying Tuesday as a success and we run this way again, we will get f------ torn apart in 2022," she said flatly.

And this is why the Left is about to be split in half...

Spanberger has the right answer, but Team Cortez and her cult of followers are going to continue to shovel coal into the socialism train's firebox for the forseeable future. 

Remains to be seen how Trump's cult of followers will flow after his wings are clipped. 
 

 

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On 11/7/2020 at 10:31 AM, jm192 said:

Apparently Pelosi said she disagreed with this because they won the Presidency and the House.  Which seems like an incredible moving of the goal posts.  There was going to be a huge blue wave.  They were going to take the Senate.  They were going to expand their lead in the House.  It looks like the GOP will hold the Senate.  The GOP also made up ground in the House.  

I think Spanberger makes great points.  

I think she does to and Pelosi's response is really no better than Trump's throwing a temper tantrum.  This is one of the huge reasons I believe Pelosi's not this great politician so many claim her to be.  She's completely lacking in self awareness and completely driven by the measure of politics from decades ago.  She's not adjusted to the new world of politics and continues to measure current state by norms of the past.  It's beyond time they move on from this antiquated view of the country IMO.

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I'm confused.  David Perdue, Kelly Loeffler, and Donald Trump are all tweeting or retweeting statements that the GA Senate runoffs are the last line of defense against socialism.  In order for that to be true, it would mean that Biden is the President-elect.

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Tuberville, showing his political and historical knowledge, per video clips on CNN:

- describes the three branches of government as the House, the Senate, and the executive branch.

- likes to talk about his dad fighting in WW II to help defeat socialism.

- talks about his temp office in the federal building where he'll be able to have meetings about fundraising (a violation of the Hatch Act).

Coach might need to work on his "game plan," now that he's in office.

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3 minutes ago, tri-man 47 said:

Tuberville, showing his political and historical knowledge, per video clips on CNN:

- describes the three branches of government as the House, the Senate, and the executive branch.

- likes to talk about his dad fighting in WW II to help defeat socialism.

- talks about his temp office in the federal building where he'll be able to have meetings about fundraising (a violation of the Hatch Act).

Coach might need to work on his "game plan," now that he's in office.

Only the best and brightest...

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19 minutes ago, tri-man 47 said:

Tuberville, showing his political and historical knowledge, per video clips on CNN:

- describes the three branches of government as the House, the Senate, and the executive branch.

- likes to talk about his dad fighting in WW II to help defeat socialism.

- talks about his temp office in the federal building where he'll be able to have meetings about fundraising (a violation of the Hatch Act).

Coach might need to work on his "game plan," now that he's in office.

If CNN targets Tommy they'll give him a lifetime seat.  I didn't vote for him in the primary either, he was pretty much my least favorite of the options.  But he does love confrontation and will make the most of it.

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5 hours ago, tri-man 47 said:

Tuberville, showing his political and historical knowledge, per video clips on CNN:

- describes the three branches of government as the House, the Senate, and the executive branch.

- likes to talk about his dad fighting in WW II to help defeat socialism.

- talks about his temp office in the federal building where he'll be able to have meetings about fundraising (a violation of the Hatch Act).

Coach might need to work on his "game plan," now that he's in office.

He also said that Al Gore was President-elect for 30 days. This guy is awesome.

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5 hours ago, tri-man 47 said:

Tuberville, showing his political and historical knowledge, per video clips on CNN:

- describes the three branches of government as the House, the Senate, and the executive branch.

- likes to talk about his dad fighting in WW II to help defeat socialism.

- talks about his temp office in the federal building where he'll be able to have meetings about fundraising (a violation of the Hatch Act).

Coach might need to work on his "game plan," now that he's in office.

Only standard in this country anymore is if you can own the libs. It’s a disgrace. 

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On 11/8/2020 at 2:06 AM, Summer Wheat said:

Dems have seemed to be better as the opposition party.  Seems like when we are in control everything backfires the next election.

Based on Obama being the last Democratic president and getting reelected after righting the tail spin Bush left?

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On 11/7/2020 at 7:33 AM, Rich Conway said:

I'd summarize as, "Well, she's not wrong."  Frankly, Democrats have never* been terribly good at messaging.

* "Never" meaning "in my adult memory", which is reasonably extensive (and get off my lawn).

 

That's not what is going to happen, what is going to happen is the DNC will one of their own to pin the blame on then jettison their entire political career and then blame the GOP for pulling the investigation lever. That's the standard political playbook in a situation like this.

The court of public opinion will demand a pound of flesh and one will have to be given.

Obama put distance on AOC which means there will be two targets. The Squad will go after Pelosi and say it was her leadership that created the losses and cost. AOC wants to neutralize Gavin Newsom from running in 2024 and he can only do that if Pelosi manages to hang on a little longer. Pelosi and the dinosaur unit will go after Ilhan Omar because she's The Squad's weak link and the one most likely to fall under financial scrutiny. They can use her as well as the narrative that left over Trumpers went after her as a form of racism.

The problem is the only way to run the entire board in 2024 with court packing and retaking more Congressional seats would be to draw in an outsider. The DNC needs Oprah Winfrey to run for POTUS. She would immediately get the black vote, Hollywood, MSM, women and pull in a lot of undecideds. She would get the platforms of nearly every celebrity besides Jon Voight and the Dukes of Hazzard guy. She would have to openly come out as gay though, which is unclear if she'd do that, to immediately get the LGBT vote. Her fundraising would be off the charts. She's already part of the current wealth class/establishment so she's only a political outsider and not a wealth outsider, whereas AOC is technically both. Winfrey understands how to use the media and they already fear her. If Oprah runs, she wins. She's a pure 8 year lock.

Democratic politicians

Stacey Abrams, 2018 gubernatorial candidate[4] - Won't get enough support

Michael Bennet, U.S. senator from Colorado[5] - Won't get enough support

Andy Beshear, governor of Kentucky[4] - Won't get enough support

Cory Booker, U.S. senator from New Jersey[5] - Won't get enough support

Pete Buttigieg, former mayor of South Bend[5] - Being openly gay and male together will cost him too many votes. No one wants to hear it or say it, but it's there. I can't change society. Use the Report Button on me if you wish, for saying what everyone knows is political reality. He's actually the best functional choice after Oprah and the since cancelled Tulsi Gabbard

Andrew Cuomo, governor of New York[4] - All the COVID19 deaths will sink him/Writing that victory lap book will lose NY to Team Red.

Kamala Harris, U.S. senator from California[5] - I don't see how this works unless Biden is cashed out in two years, in which case it will look like Biden was only POTUS by proxy, which will hurt her.

Jay Inslee, governor of Washington[6] - Rioting in 2020 will sink him

Joe Kennedy, U.S. representative from Massachusetts[5] - Won't get enough support

Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator from Minnesota[5] - DNC can't leverage her/control her/blackmail her, they won't push forward anyone they can't control

Michelle Lujan Grisham, governor of New Mexico[6] - Won't get enough support

Gavin Newsom, governor of California[4] - Depends on who wins the internal fight for the DNC

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, U.S. representative from New York[4] - Depends on who wins the internal fight for the DNC

J.B. Pritzker, governor of Illinois[6] - Won't get enough support/Being in the same breath as Lori Lightfoot will be political death.

Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan[6] - Won't get enough support

 

Is there anyone on this list that Dan Crenshaw/Nikki Haley can't beat besides Oprah?

On "messenging", that's not realistic. The DNC has to appeal to a very wide base and, in doing so, can't hold any specific platform to run with and galvanize around. The only reason the "Defund The Police" and BLM and socialism  and rioting angles came into play was the DNC NEEDED the votes/money/influence from the far left and radical left.  The idea that they are playing it "moral" or "too principled" or "lack the ability to get an effective message out" is BS.  They need to appeal to Blacks, women, gays, socialists, radicals, Latinos, Asians, and on and on and on.  With the information age, as Ice Cube so easily put it, the minority vote is no longer free for the DNC, if you want the vote you need to give something back to those communities and cultures. This type of campaign style will require heavy taxes ( someone has to pay for all these entitlements/programs/etc/etc) and that will hurt the overall platform.

Who gets the DNC 2024 ticket determines the potential for fund raising, which turns into dollars and dollars buys ad time/influence/votes/access/etc/etc.

If you had to pick today, between Newsom and AOC, AOC seems like the one I'd rather have with the nuclear football between the two ( but that's like picking between Marc Levin and Jason Wood on whom I'd want to go on a 19 hour non stop road trip with across America) , but Newsom will have Pelosi's money machine behind him.

If Kamala Harris somehow gets the ticket, the GOP will promise Tulsi Gabbard whatever she wants to run as an independent and gut Harris again and again in the press. As an independent, Gabbard can just run roughshod over the entire DNC. Cancelling her was one of the worst mistakes in modern politics.

The DNC's choices looks like to lose POTUS and more of Congress or just lose the POTUS.

Right now, that means Newsom.

You can't run Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and Gavin Newsom in three consecutive elections and expect not to lose a crap ton of moderates, undecideds and minorities. Without Orange Man Bad, the DNC literally handed Dan Crenshaw the Presidency. And uncounted number of Congressional seats that will turn red accordingly.

 

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What are the chances that Dems win both Georgia seats?

Republicans might have lost their enthusiasm for voting after just losing the Presidential race and then watching Trump's post-election antics. Maybe some will buy into the theory that Georgia's Republican political machine perpetrated the fraud.

Democrats may be a bit less enthusiastic in January than they were in November, but maybe the drop-off will be smaller?

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52 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

What are the chances that Dems win both Georgia seats?

Republicans might have lost their enthusiasm for voting after just losing the Presidential race and then watching Trump's post-election antics. Maybe some will buy into the theory that Georgia's Republican political machine perpetrated the fraud.

Democrats may be a bit less enthusiastic in January than they were in November, but maybe the drop-off will be smaller?

I’d say the only reason there is a remote chance is the mail in voting changes in GA.  It gives less enthusiastic voters an easier way to cast their ballot. While some Trump voters may be discouraged, more are probably mad than discouraged and more likely to vote  Rs also tend to do better in these off cycle type elections. It’s going to take a lot of mail in less enthusiastic type support for Warnock and Ossoff to have a chance. Likely these both go the same way but Perdue seemed slightly stronger than Loeffler. Only because I don’t know how the mail in ballots will affect this is the only reason I think it’s not statistically insignificant. Given that unknown I don’t think anyone can say for sure. 

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56 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

What are the chances that Dems win both Georgia seats?

Republicans might have lost their enthusiasm for voting after just losing the Presidential race and then watching Trump's post-election antics. Maybe some will buy into the theory that Georgia's Republican political machine perpetrated the fraud.

Democrats may be a bit less enthusiastic in January than they were in November, but maybe the drop-off will be smaller?

I am starting to like their chances. I think voters will be enthusiastic for Warnock at least. I don't think either of the GOP candidates have much appeal. I think many Trump voters will be disinterested. 

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3 hours ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

What are the chances that Dems win both Georgia seats?

Republicans might have lost their enthusiasm for voting after just losing the Presidential race and then watching Trump's post-election antics. Maybe some will buy into the theory that Georgia's Republican political machine perpetrated the fraud.

Democrats may be a bit less enthusiastic in January than they were in November, but maybe the drop-off will be smaller?

Who knows, but I highly doubt that voters on both sides who were motivated to get out to the polls in November are going to be less enthusiastic about the opportunity for their vote to translate to control over whether the incoming administration will get hamstrung or have legislative ease implementing their policy.

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8 hours ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

What are the chances that Dems win both Georgia seats?

Republicans might have lost their enthusiasm for voting after just losing the Presidential race and then watching Trump's post-election antics. Maybe some will buy into the theory that Georgia's Republican political machine perpetrated the fraud.

Democrats may be a bit less enthusiastic in January than they were in November, but maybe the drop-off will be smaller?

I think pretty low.  Trump voters definitely lost enthusiasm but Trump was also the reason many Dems voted this time as well. At heart, GA is still a red state and I think without Trump on the ballot, it comes down to that. 

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2 minutes ago, prefontaine said:

At heart, GA is still a red state and I think without Trump on the ballot, it comes down to that. 

But just barely.  Kemp barely beat Abrams for the governorship just 2 years ago.  Abrams was a great candidate and Kemp wasn't but Loeffler is no great shakes either. 

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9 hours ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

What are the chances that Dems win both Georgia seats?

Republicans might have lost their enthusiasm for voting after just losing the Presidential race and then watching Trump's post-election antics. Maybe some will buy into the theory that Georgia's Republican political machine perpetrated the fraud.

Democrats may be a bit less enthusiastic in January than they were in November, but maybe the drop-off will be smaller?

Yes...will be interested to see how things go

Are Republicans there motivated by..."they stole the Presidency...have to keep socialism out of the Senate" and that type of mentality.  Will the GOP spend spend spend there on such advertising and really have a push from POTUS...or will he have accepted his loss by then to the point he cares less about the party and more about whats next for him?  Will there be damage done from what has already been going on/said down there from some of the Trump legal team /not team and so on?

Will Democrats have the same motivation in a special election than they did the general?  

I think its a pretty big uphill climb for the Dem candidates.

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5 hours ago, The Z Machine said:

But just barely.  Kemp barely beat Abrams for the governorship just 2 years ago.  Abrams was a great candidate and Kemp wasn't but Loeffler is no great shakes either. 

If a good blue candidate can't beat a bad red candidate then the state is still red. 

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15 hours ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

What are the chances that Dems win both Georgia seats?

I think the Democrats have a chance if they can do the following:

1. use the words of Trump (and his staffers) to sow mistrust and apathy.

2. emphasize the importance of respecting laws and norms.

3. emphasize how Perdue and Loeffler exploited and downplayed COVID so they could sell stocks and make money while people were dying.

4. connect with African-Americans without pandering to them.

5. keep Joe Biden out of it.

But the Democrats will probably botch all of those things and both Republicans will win in a landslide.

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2 hours ago, Joe Summer said:

I think the Democrats have a chance if they can do the following:

1. use the words of Trump (and his staffers) to sow mistrust and apathy.

2. emphasize the importance of respecting laws and norms.

3. emphasize how Perdue and Loeffler exploited and downplayed COVID so they could sell stocks and make money while people were dying.

4. connect with African-Americans without pandering to them.

5. keep Joe Biden out of it.

But the Democrats will probably botch all of those things and both Republicans will win in a landslide.

Yes, they are good at the bolded.  I don't think they should lie & cheat but they need to take the gloves off as you emphasized in your five points.

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On 11/25/2020 at 3:15 PM, Joe Summer said:

I think the Democrats have a chance if they can do the following:

 

5. keep Joe Biden out of it.

But the Democrats will probably botch all of those things and both Republicans will win in a landslide.

 

On 11/28/2020 at 12:17 PM, timschochet said:

Why? 

I am with Tim. Georgia voted for Biden. I don't think you would want to keep him away from the race. 

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