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2019 Post Season Subscriber Contest


TheWinz

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Time to start thinking about roster construction for your entry.  Here is what we do know...

AFC

Baltimore Ravens - Won't be playing week 1, as they have secured a first round bye, and home field throughout the playoffs.  With nothing but pride to play for next week vs PIT, starters should be getting plenty of rest.  Lamar will cost a bit more than $12 in the playoffs, that's for sure.

New England Patriots - A first round bye awaits, as long as they take care of business at home vs Miami.  Fitz and company are having fun, and would love nothing more than to end the season on a 5-4 run.  Fun facts - Fitzpatrick is QB3 since the start of week 9, and Devante is WR2.

Kansas City Chiefs - Can end up as either the 2, 3, or 4 seed.  As they face the Chargers next week, they will also be watching the big screen, hoping NE loses.  KC already has wins over BAL and NE, so a road game wouldn't be the end of the world if it came down to that.

Houston Texans - Deshaun and crew are locked in as either seed 3 or 4.  At least one thing is for sure - they will be hosting a playoff game in week 1.

Buffalo Bills - Locked in as the #5 seed, and most likely going on the road to face the Texans week 1.  They could be a road favorite.

Tennessee Titans - A win in and your in scenario for TEN.  A dinged up Henry rested up for the final game vs HOU.

Pittsburgh Steelers - They need help, but they just may get it.  Job 1 will be beating a BAL team that may rest their starters.

Oakland Raiders - Need lots of help, along with a win on the road vs DEN.

NFC

San Francisco 49ers - You think week 17 is important for the Niners?  Win and be the #1 seed with a bye and home field throughout.  Lose and play on the road in week 1.

New Orleans Saints - Will be rooting for the Vikings in tonight's game.  CMC will be looking to join Craig & Faulk as the only 1K/1K RB's vs NO this week.

Green Bay Packers - Tonight's game vs MIN is a battle for seeding.  Aaron hasn't thrown an INT in 8 weeks, but he is averaging less than 190 passing the last 6 weeks.

Philadelphia Eagles - How comical would it be for the Eagles to lose in week 17 and still host a week 1 playoff game vs the Niners?

Seattle Seahawks - Currently the #5 seed, but if things break right, they could be the top seed in the NFC.

Minnesota Vikings - They finally get Thielen healthy, and their RB's get hurt.

Dallas Cowboys - Dak & Zeke are #4 at their respective positions, Amari is #10, and DAL is a sub-.500 team needing help.

 

Really looking forward to the pricing this year.  Hopefully the FBG staff doesn't exclude too many players.

 

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Just for reference for this year's contest, here were the prices from last year (I may have missed a few players, but the FBG staff did a great job trying to include almost everyone)...

As a reminder, the 4 top teams with a 1st round bye were KC, LAR, NE, and NO.

QB - Mahomes (40), Brees (38), Watson (32), Goff (27), Trubisky (26), Brady (24), Jackson (22), Luck (21), Rivers (18), Prescott (16), Wilson (14), Foles (12), Hill (4)  

RB - Gurley (34), Kamara (34), Elliott (30), Gordon (26), Ingram (23), Damien Williams (22), Cohen (20), White (18), Miller (17), Carson (16), Howard (14), Mack (14), Michel (13), Ekeler (12), Dixon (11), Hines (11), Edwards (9), Sproles (8), Ware (8), Burkhead (7), Davis (7), Darrel Williams (7), Smallwood (6), Blue (5), Adams (4), Anderson (4), Foreman (4), Penny (4), Develin (3), Jackson (3), Line (3), Mizzell (3), Montgomery (3), Smith (3), Wilkins (3), Allen (2), Kelly (2), McKissic (2)

WR - Thomas (28), Hill (27), Hopkins (24), Woods (22), Cooks (20), Edelman (19), Hilton (19), Allen (18), Cooper (16), Baldwin (14), Lockett (14), Allen Robinson (14), Gabriel (13), Jeffery (11), Mike Williams (11), Ginn (10), Reynolds (10), Watkins (10), John Brown (9), Conley (9), Kirkwood (9), Miller (9), TreQuan Smith (9), Snead (9), Tyrell Williams (9), Hogan (8), Beasley (7), Crabtree (7), Inman (7), Agholor (6), Vyncint Smith (6), Coutee (5), Gallup (5), Patterson (5), Tate (5), David Moore (4), Bellamy (3), Kelvin Benjamin (3), Travis Benjamin (3), Carter (3), Dorsett (3), Grant (3), Pascal (3), Demarcus Robinson (3), Rogers (3), Austin (2), Jaron Brown (2), Noah Brown (2), Carr (2), Hurns (2), Matthews (2), Chris Moore (2)

TE - Kelce (29), Ertz (20), Ebron (14), Gronkowski (14), Burton (10), Watson (9), Andrews (8), Everett (7), Jarwin (7), Henry (6), Dickson (5), Goedert (5), Griffin (5), Harris (5), Higbee (5), Thomas (5), Arnold (4), Hill (4), Vannett (4), Alie-Cox (3), Gates (3), Hewitt (3), Hurst (3), Shaheen (3), Akins (2), Boyle (2), Gathers (2), Green (2), Hollister (2), Schultz (2), Williams (2)

K - Lutz (15), Zuerlein (14), Butker (13), Fairbairn (12), Gostkowski (11), Parkey (10), Tucker (9), Badgley (8), Maher (7), Janikowski (5), Elliott (4), Vinatieri (4)

D - CHI (14), KC (12), NO (12), HOU (10), BAL (9), LAR (9), LAC (8), SEA (8), DAL (6), NE (6), IND (4), PHI (4)

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A little more info on last year's contest...

- Only the top 7 finishers got money (1000, 250, 200, 100, 75, 50, 30)

- Of the top 7, no team had less than 7 players in the SB (high was 13)

- Of the top 7, average spent on SB players was $118 (high was $164)

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35 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

A little more info on last year's contest...

- Only the top 7 finishers got money (1000, 250, 200, 100, 75, 50, 30)

- Of the top 7, no team had less than 7 players in the SB (high was 13)

- Of the top 7, average spent on SB players was $118 (high was $164)

An interesting complement to this analysis would be to determine the commonalities in the rosters excluding the money spent on SB players, specifically the diversity of spend on one and done teams versus semi-final and done teams.

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23 minutes ago, SeniorVBDStudent said:

An interesting complement to this analysis would be to determine the commonalities in the rosters excluding the money spent on SB players, specifically the diversity of spend on one and done teams versus semi-final and done teams.

There is no querier available, so this would have to be done by going through all 6K+ entries manually.  Last year, I tried to defy the odds and picked no players with a week 1 bye.  Getting to week 2 was a sure thing.  Rivers, Prescott, Foles, and others got me to week 3.  But then I was toast.  I do know one thing though - if it had been a DAL/LAC SB, I would've taken top prize.  I blew my wad on these 2 teams, spending $186 on 15 players.

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Hey Guys.

We'll have the contest up Wednesday 1/1 at noon ET. 

It's free for anyone who purchased a Premium Footballguys Subscription this year. 

It'll be the same structure and prizes as last year. 

It's one way we say thanks to our folks that support FBG. Thanks.

 

Edited to be Noon ET Wednsesday

Edited by Joe Bryant
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Choosing the right teams is paramount. The only way to win is to have a high number of players on the two super bowl teams. But, the catch is that a lot of folks don't understand and they load up with two players on several wild card teams and make it difficult to score high enough to stay alive for the second and sometimes even the third round.

Very difficult contest due to the rules and also the lack of general understanding by many of the players.

Very enjoyable though and it can be maddening selecting your team between Tuesday and Saturday.

Good luck to the message boarders!

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22 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

This is really one of the best EV contests. Free world and all that stuff, but in this case Discussion really does yourself a disservice. 

I know you weren't a fan of the discussion prior to the regular season contest either.  You are a well respected poster and you have a valid point.  I will try my best not to go too deep into player selection strategy.  Good luck to all.

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12 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

I know you weren't a fan of the discussion prior to the regular season contest either.  You are a well respected poster and you have a valid point.  I will try my best not to go too deep into player selection strategy.  Good luck to all.

I think you have me confused regarding the regular season. The regular season is more about player selection. At least 50% of the people don’t read the post season rules.  That’s a big benefit with such a shallow prize pool. In the past if you checked the obvious criteria and hit on your teams you were a lock for a payout in this contest 

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3 hours ago, Joe Bryant said:

Hey Guys.

We'll have the contest up early Tuesday morning. 

It's free for anyone who purchased a Premium Footballguys Subscription this year. 

It'll be the same structure and prizes as last year. 

It's one way we say thanks to our folks that support FBG. Thanks.

Thanks Joe.

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I’d suggest people look at the final standings and teams from last year if they want to derive some strategies 

https://subscribers.footballguys.com/playoffcontest/2018/week-21.php

for me I have never done well in the finals  because I picked the wrong SB teams! I would  have done great last year if the conference championships went the other way. Also It’s  tough to select both super bowl teams being teams with byes but if that is what you think you have to go for it to have a real chance. Last year both of my teams had byes  but didn’t make SB

https://subscribers.footballguys.com/playoffcontest/2018/101975.php

I’ll leave it at that. Good luck. 

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1 minute ago, Joe Bryant said:

The contest is free for premium subscribers. It's a way to say thanks. No, we're not doubling cash prizes for a free contest. Sorry. 

I hope you know I was just joking, but I must say this... it's not really a free contest if you have to pay to enter, which is the case.  It's kinda like when your wife says she is going shopping, and comes home with a free gift she got with her purchase of something else.

P.S.  Philly is going all the way this year, so I suggest you up the prices on their players.

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33 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

I hope you know I was just joking, but I must say this... it's not really a free contest if you have to pay to enter, which is the case.  It's kinda like when your wife says she is going shopping, and comes home with a free gift she got with her purchase of something else.

P.S.  Philly is going all the way this year, so I suggest you up the prices on their players.

Thanks. Good luck to you. 

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23 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I won a lifetime pro subscription from one of my entries in the FPC. Does that get me into this contest? Is a Pro-subscription considered premium? I paid for one this year, but did it need to be All-pro to get into the Postseason contest?

Any paid or comped subscription this year gets you into the regular season and post season contests.

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23 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

I think you have me confused regarding the regular season. The regular season is more about player selection. At least 50% of the people don’t read the post season rules.  That’s a big benefit with such a shallow prize pool. In the past if you checked the obvious criteria and hit on your teams you were a lock for a payout in this contest 

Philosophically, shouldn't who wins and who loses be about player selection and not about protecting "secrets" of proper roster construction?  Different strokes, I guess.  🤷‍♂️

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7 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

I won a lifetime pro subscription from one of my entries in the FPC. Does that get me into this contest? Is a Pro-subscription considered premium? I paid for one this year, but did it need to be All-pro to get into the Postseason contest?

Yes. Anyone who has a Season Long Pro or Daily Fantasy Pro or All Pro Premium subscription for the 2019 season is eligible. If you have any trouble accessing the content, shoot an email to Clayton Gray at gray@footballguys.com

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16 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

Also - the projections came in quicker than we thought and salary info is in the works. We'll let you know as soon as things are ready. 

Awesome!  I've already picked my roster and hope it's under $250.  Well, it will be, as long as McCaffrey is under $30.

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18 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Awesome!  I've already picked my roster and hope it's under $250.  Well, it will be, as long as McCaffrey is under $30.

Can't wait. I've not only picked this week's roster but I am working on next week's roster as well 😉

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This is definitely the year to go all in on the Wild Card teams. The Saints should be a bit cheaper than similar players on the 49ers and Packers teams, yet have almost as good a chance to make and win the Super Bowl. The down side is that the Saints would definitely have to be on the road in week two and possibly also in week three.

On the AFC Side, either the Titans or the Patriots would be the choice, depending if you believe in the Patriots mystique and home field being a more solid pick than the Titans, behind the resurgent offense behind Tannehill. It is a much longer shot obviously for either of these two teams to continue to win, being on the road and likely facing the Chiefs and Ravens in successive weeks, so the cost should be even less as the risk is much greater. 

I suspect that there will be abundant entries that go heavy on a Ravens vs 49ers Super Bowl, so you may need to really go all in on those two teams or risk losing to a heavier Super Bowl roster with those two teams.

Good luck Shark Poolers!

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Stephen Holloway said:

The Saints should be a bit cheaper than similar players on the 49ers and Packers teams, yet have almost as good a chance to make and win the Super Bowl.

Can't imagine they'll be cheaper considering they're nearly as likely to win the Super Bowl and you get an extra game out of them.  Saints will likely be among the most expensive players in the contest. 

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9 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Any paid or comped subscription this year gets you into the regular season and post season contests.

Right on, yeah I played the regular season contest but was unaware of a postseason version of it. Just making sure I'm eligible but it sounds like I am!! And the lifetime subscription keeps me in it forever. 

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1 minute ago, barackdhouse said:

Right on, yeah I played the regular season contest but was unaware of a postseason version of it. Just making sure I'm eligible but it sounds like I am!! And the lifetime subscription keeps me in it forever. 

I also have a lifetime subscription.  The only difference is I pay for it every year.

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26 minutes ago, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

Can't imagine they'll be cheaper considering they're nearly as likely to win the Super Bowl and you get an extra game out of them.  Saints will likely be among the most expensive players in the contest. 

Oh yeah.

Super Bowl Odds

Ravens | +225
Chiefs | +300
49ers | +350
Saints | +350
Packers | +700
Seahawks | +900
Patriots | +1800
Bills | +3500
Vikings | +4000
Texans | +4000
Eagles | +4500
Titans | +4500

Rolling with Saints players will be like buying up Boardwalk and Park Place on Monopoly. 

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12 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

Oh yeah.

Super Bowl Odds

Ravens | +225
Chiefs | +300
49ers | +350
Saints | +350
Packers | +700
Seahawks | +900
Patriots | +1800
Bills | +3500
Vikings | +4000
Texans | +4000
Eagles | +4500
Titans | +4500

Rolling with Saints players will be like buying up Boardwalk and Park Place on Monopoly. 

And then adding Patrick Mahomes, Hill and Kelce will be like buying hotels. Doesn't leave much for the Mediterranean and Baltic Avenues.

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There are only 36 combinations of teams to make it to the SB.  Ignoring each teams odds, that means everyone starts with roughly a 3% chance of guessing it correctly.  Once you whittle out the teams with no hope (teams like BAL, KC, SF, GB, NO, NE, HOU, BUF, SEA, MIN), your odds drastically increase.  I wonder if the FBG staff will allow me to purchase multiple shares of  PHI & TEN players?

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On 12/30/2019 at 5:16 AM, Joe Bryant said:

Hey Guys.

We'll have the contest up Wednesday 1/1 at noon ET. 

It's free for anyone who purchased a Premium Footballguys Subscription this year. 

It'll be the same structure and prizes as last year. 

It's one way we say thanks to our folks that support FBG. Thanks.

 

Edited to be Noon ET Wednsesday

1. I appreciate y’all doing this, as it’s that much more value for my subscription (which I already think is a good value for everything else)

2. I’ve got a post-season live draft on fri night with ~16 people from both of my leagues - This is gonna make doing my rankings sheet that much easier. 
 

thanks for everything & happy new year! 

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