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2019 Post Season Subscriber Contest


TheWinz

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Made it through with my 4 but looking at the other teams that are alive it doesn't even seem like I can finish in the prizes with my 12.

I would list them but the stupid formatting on this board drives me nuts.  Can someone please change it to not double-space please?

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14 minutes ago, zed2283 said:

Made it through with my 4 but looking at the other teams that are alive it doesn't even seem like I can finish in the prizes with my 12.

I would list them but the stupid formatting on this board drives me nuts.  Can someone please change it to not double-space please?

If you have 12 KC-SF players you definitely have a chance. If you DON'T have Mahomes and Kelce you might not...

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48 minutes ago, da_budman said:

If somebody good at this tool could check out my team  and see if I have a chance?  or at least a chance at a prize I would be greatful......entry 100238    5 Niners and 5 Chiefs....both qbs  but no Hill for KC..... 

Dude, you are safely in for next week

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Well, I will make it to the SB easily, but I have only 8 players and only Williams and Hardman from KC, so I have no hope of winning. This was the best I ever did, even tough once I finished 34th, because I had an actual chance to win the whole thing had it been TEN-SF...I love this contest...it's clearly one of the most difficult to win that I have ever seen...

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21 minutes ago, zed2283 said:

Made it through with my 4 but looking at the other teams that are alive it doesn't even seem like I can finish in the prizes with my 12.

I would list them but the stupid formatting on this board drives me nuts.  Can someone please change it to not double-space please?

Dude, you have a great shot.  I just saw your team, and it differs from the other top dogs.  Just matters who does the scoring.  Good luck

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Just now, TheWinz said:

Dude, you have a great shot.  I just saw your team, and it differs from the other top dogs.  Just matters who does the scoring.  Good luck

It does differ slightly (100732).  I'll need the defenses to outscore some of the lesser players, although we all know there are always defensive scores in the SB.

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38 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Dude, you have a great shot.  I just saw your team, and it differs from the other top dogs.  Just matters who does the scoring.  Good luck

 

5 minutes ago, stubby said:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/playoffcontest/2019/101334.php
 

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/playoffcontest/2019/101860.php
 

No Hill? Both of these teams have him pretty much covered......no dead money on any other players.

Yeah see, I can't win. :kicksrock:

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1 hour ago, zed2283 said:

Made it through with my 4 but looking at the other teams that are alive it doesn't even seem like I can finish in the prizes with my 12.

I would list them but the stupid formatting on this board drives me nuts.  Can someone please change it to not double-space please?

Hit shift+enter.

I technically made the finals but I'm a dead man walking with no Chiefs.

Edited by ZWK
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5 hours ago, zed2283 said:

 

Yeah see, I can't win. :kicksrock:

Hence why a bunch of us including TheWinz were trying to explain to you why the contest this year is sort of flawed.

Both of those teams have 0 players from the Divisional Round and in any other year would have been eliminated with a score of 0 in Week 1 of the playoffs. Same goes for the team that TheDope said is his...also had no players and would have been cut if there was any cut line (even just 0.1 for the week).

Now do you understand what we all tried to explain. Most people (even you to a degree) put some of their money on players who played in Week 1 because everyone needed to be weary of a cut line and survive that week.

Now there are a bunch of front runners who put 0 dollars on Week 1 and loaded up with just KC/SF and “should have” been eliminated in any other year.

This is why we explained how the pricing for the NO players was too high and way off due to the 3,000 player anomaly.

Hope it all makes sense now.

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57 minutes ago, niagararapids said:

Hence why a bunch of us including TheWinz were trying to explain to you why the contest this year is sort of flawed.

Both of those teams have 0 players from the Divisional Round and in any other year would have been eliminated with a score of 0 in Week 1 of the playoffs. Same goes for the team that TheDope said is his...also had no players and would have been cut if there was any cut line (even just 0.1 for the week).

Now do you understand what we all tried to explain. Most people (even you to a degree) put some of their money on players who played in Week 1 because everyone needed to be weary of a cut line and survive that week.

Now there are a bunch of front runners who put 0 dollars on Week 1 and loaded up with just KC/SF and “should have” been eliminated in any other year.

This is why we explained how the pricing for the NO players was too high and way off due to the 3,000 player anomaly.

Hope it all makes sense now.

I just checked, and there has been a week 1 cut every year for this contest (could only find data going back to 2009).  The lowest week 1 cut I could find was 46 points in 2013, with an average of 78.  As I said pages ago, what's done is done.  FGB staff did not anticipate less than 4K entries, and it's now in their hands for future years.

Anyway, the cut to make it to the big show is 81.55.  The average has been 78.  The week 2 cut was 105, and was the lowest ever (average is 136).

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First time I can ever remember picking both SB teams in many years of playing this contest. I have always tried scraping by in round 1 and usually fail. 

This year I made it in place 198 this week and have 7 Niners and 5 Chiefs going in two weeks. Notable omissions are Damian Williams and Hardman from KC. 

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Playoff breakdown is ready to go:  http://calcomatic.com/PlayoffBreakdown

Probably doesn't matter as this team has 16 players in the Super Bowl (the only one with 16, some others have 15) so it probably has every other entry covered: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/playoffcontest/2019/101334.php

On that note, I may not even run calcomatic for the super bowl this year.  I have to make some last minute changes to calcomatic because the data source I use doesn't make the superbowl URL available until a few hours before the game - so instead of worrying about calcomatic when the outcome is already known, I'm just going to enjoy super bowl sunday.

 

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Oh, I had another thought about how FBG can prevent a zero cut line in week #1 - instead of having a percentage of users make it in the first round they could institute a minimum score for round #1 (10, 25, 50 points, whatever - that would force entries to have players from the divisional round).  The entry that is going to win only has SF and KC players and would have been eliminated in the first round in any other year.  What are you gonna do?  :shrug: 

 

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16 minutes ago, Steeler said:

This is the first year I selected both SB teams correctly and I scored a respectable 89.90 in round one but have not shot (completely covered) by multiple teams - I have 5 SF and 5 KC players.  :kicksrock:

Sadly, if you spent a single dollar on week 1, you have no shot to win.  I don't blame FBG at all for this, but I do expect them to change the rules next year.  I know you suggested a cut point for week 1, but I think cutting 50% every week works better.  Would it make any difference if there were 1000 or 2000 finalists?  The intent of the contest would remain the same.

As soon as we knew there were only 3K entries, I expected this outcome.  Sad end to a very fun contest.

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10 hours ago, yabahos said:

Here are the front runners for first place.  
 

101334

101493

101860

102475

These teams spent all their money on KC/SF players.  

Wow. Literally betting on not enough competition to make it through the first week. Savage. :insert hairdresser from Bravo here:

Good work.

I'm through easily, dead covered with 7 SF, no KC.

Whah wah. :sad trombone:

Edited by rockaction
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10 hours ago, ZWK said:

Hit shift+enter.

I technically made the finals but I'm a dead man walking with no Chiefs.

1, Holy ####. ZWK is the greatest
2. Nor just for his dynasty info and player evaluation, always top-notch
3. But with helpful hints for the board, to which I am grateful
4. Thanks. What an invaluable thing to know! 
5. We are both dead men walking with no Chiefs. I bet Baltimore. Never get stuck near Pimlico with me, you'll leave fleeced and uncheeked.

Edited by rockaction
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5 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Wow. Literally betting on not enough competition to make it through the first week. Savage. :insert hairdresser from Bravo here:

Good work.

I'm through easily, dead covered with 7 SF, no KC.

Whah wah. :sad trombone:

The only entries with a shot remind me of the "30 kicker" teams in the yearly contest.

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12 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

The only entries with a shot remind me of the "30 kicker" teams in the yearly contest.

They got the teams right, though. Half the battle. I learned the hard way one year when the cut skyrocketed in the first round to that 135 area you cited. That was the year I felt people didn't understand the contest. This was a glitch in all reasonable expectations, and was noted by others preemptively with respect to the purse.

What can one do but laud the champions lest it sound like the metaphorical wine is bad?

The metaphorical wine weren't bad. It got me through two weeks of watching football, felled only by Sunday's early result. 

Edited by rockaction
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10 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Shift, enter
Shift, enter
Shift, enter
Hey, it does work!

If you participate in the music drafts, italicized lyrical couplets and verses are now a dream, to wit:

And I was drinking you goodbye
A heart floats in the Bay
From sour home Chicago,
I hear it beating far away

- "San Francisco," Alkaline Trio

Is so much better than And I was drinking you goodbye/A heart floats in the Bay/From sour home Chicago/I hear it beating far away..."San Francisco," Alkaline Trio

Indeed a difference. 

eta* I might take a train
I might take a plane...

Edited by rockaction
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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

If you participate in the music drafts, italicized lyrical couplets and verses are now a dream, to wit:

And I was drinking you goodbye
A heart floats in the Bay
From sour home Chicago,
I hear it beating far away

- "San Francisco," Alkaline Trio

Is so much better than And I was drinking you goodbye/A heart floats in the Bay/From sour home Chicago/I hear it beating far away...San Francisco, Alkaline Trio

Indeed a difference. 
 

On the breast of a hooker named Gail,
was tattooed the price of her tail,
and on her behind,
for the sake of the blind,
was the same information in Braille.

Yes, much better indeed

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6 hours ago, niagararapids said:

Hence why a bunch of us including TheWinz were trying to explain to you why the contest this year is sort of flawed.

Both of those teams have 0 players from the Divisional Round and in any other year would have been eliminated with a score of 0 in Week 1 of the playoffs. Same goes for the team that TheDope said is his...also had no players and would have been cut if there was any cut line (even just 0.1 for the week).

Now do you understand what we all tried to explain. Most people (even you to a degree) put some of their money on players who played in Week 1 because everyone needed to be weary of a cut line and survive that week.

Now there are a bunch of front runners who put 0 dollars on Week 1 and loaded up with just KC/SF and “should have” been eliminated in any other year.

This is why we explained how the pricing for the NO players was too high and way off due to the 3,000 player anomaly.

Hope it all makes sense now.

Uh, I understood from the beginning what you were saying.  I disagree then and I disagree now.  In any playoff contest things become mathematically limited towards the end.  I am mathematically eliminated from winning.  Just complaining about that, not about those who did better than I did.

Hope it makes sense.

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11 hours ago, yabahos said:

Here are the front runners for first place.  
 

101334

101493

101860

102475

These teams spent all their money on KC/SF players.  

IMPRESSIVE!  All but $25 spent on KC/SF on all teams (Ingram the only flier). 

Distintinctions  -->   3 of 4 with Mercole Hardman, 2 with Sammy Watkins but key differences are

101334   -->  Darwin Thompson & Kyle Juszcyk unique 

101860  -->  SF Defense unique 

101493  -->  only team missing Raheem Mostert (ouch... the Ingram move might make the difference here)

102475  -->  Tevin Coleman unique (if he returns?) 

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1 hour ago, Steeler said:

Oh, I had another thought about how FBG can prevent a zero cut line in week #1 - instead of having a percentage of users make it in the first round they could institute a minimum score for round #1 (10, 25, 50 points, whatever - that would force entries to have players from the divisional round).  The entry that is going to win only has SF and KC players and would have been eliminated in the first round in any other year.  What are you gonna do?  :shrug: 

 

Any > 1 would work....  where there has to be something spent on Wild Card games.  But to actually make it competetive, I think >35 pts would be a good number.  This makes it a balance that we all have to obtain. 

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Considering it's like a work Christmas bonus if you're a subscriber, I wouldn't complain too hard about the gift, really. Not that anybody really is, but should it get to that point, that's my two cents. I'm happy to have the competition every year as I don't play the dailies nor gamble on football.

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IMO there is nothing wrong with the contest.  Everyone making it through to Week 2 hurt but those four teams were still playing with only 4 players counting when I would guess that most teams had around 8 and a max of 16.  
 

It was the same this past week to a lesser degree. 
 

Those teams still needed huge weeks to clear the cuts.  

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2 minutes ago, yabahos said:

IMO there is nothing wrong with the contest.  Everyone making it through to Week 2 hurt but those four teams were still playing with only 4 players counting when I would guess that most teams had around 8 and a max of 16.  
 

It was the same this past week to a lesser degree. 
 

Those teams still needed huge weeks to clear the cuts.  

I agree that those teams were at a moderate disadvantage in weeks 2 and 3.  I do think if you know there's no week 1 cut, however, the optimal strategy is to completely stack two Super Bowl teams and roll the dice in weeks 2 and 3.  When there is a week 1 cut, that's a losing strategy unless both of your SB teams play wild card weekend.  So whether or not there's a week 1 cut does fundamentally change the winning strategy for the contest, which is kinda wonky.  I originally didn't think it was that big of a deal (and I was certain there were years when there was no cut, but either I misremembered or they were 12+ years ago), but I'm coming around to the idea that something should change for next year if this is a possibility again.  

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7 hours ago, niagararapids said:

Hence why a bunch of us including TheWinz were trying to explain to you why the contest this year is sort of flawed.

Both of those teams have 0 players from the Divisional Round and in any other year would have been eliminated with a score of 0 in Week 1 of the playoffs. Same goes for the team that TheDope said is his...also had no players and would have been cut if there was any cut line (even just 0.1 for the week).

Now do you understand what we all tried to explain. Most people (even you to a degree) put some of their money on players who played in Week 1 because everyone needed to be weary of a cut line and survive that week.

Now there are a bunch of front runners who put 0 dollars on Week 1 and loaded up with just KC/SF and “should have” been eliminated in any other year.

This is why we explained how the pricing for the NO players was too high and way off due to the 3,000 player anomaly.

Hope it all makes sense now.

 

2 hours ago, Steeler said:

Oh, I had another thought about how FBG can prevent a zero cut line in week #1 - instead of having a percentage of users make it in the first round they could institute a minimum score for round #1 (10, 25, 50 points, whatever - that would force entries to have players from the divisional round).  The entry that is going to win only has SF and KC players and would have been eliminated in the first round in any other year.  What are you gonna do?  :shrug: 

 

Unless someone picks only wildcard team players that lose, it would be mathematically impossible to have 0 players in the divisional. 

 

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41 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

456.

made the cut. Won the battle, lost the war. 
:cry: 

I feel your pain & misery....  I was #89 this week (#533 last week)....  only to be left watching those SB Stacked team walk away with the gold... 

I will be left with 3 KC & 2 SF players... no shot but fun journey! 

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Ugh. Wasn't aware of the whole "no cuts in week one" thing this year. Made the cut this week and was plenty happy about my 7 Chiefs players, but looks like I have no chance at all if people were able to build 100% KC/SF squads. Oh well.

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