Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
2019 Post Season Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TheWinz
- Start date
I agree that nothing should be changed at this point but the way I worded it made it seem like I wanted it done now. I was more meaning that it should be added to the future rules that if you get a zero in Week 18 you are eliminated regardless of the number of entries. Part of the difficulty of the contest is to navigate the first week.....advancing by default because not enough people entered shouldn't give you an advantage.Ignoratio Elenchi said:
kylechoffman
Footballguy
I should have went heavy KC, Balt, SF and GB knowing a zero last week would have made it through..
barackdhouse
Footballguy
2018 - 6782 teamsIgnoratio Elenchi said:
2017 - 6679 teams
2016 - 6284 teams
2015 - 5522 teams
2014 - 4706 teams
Before 2014 I assume.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’ve got 7 key players between the Niners & SF. Both QBs, both #1 TEs, a RB, WR & D/ST.
I have 2 packers (Adams/Lazard), 1 Texan, 1 Titan (QB) and lost 2 Bills & an Eagle. The players I lost were sacrificial lambs to help make the (now nonexistent) cut for week 1, so I don’t mourn their loss much.
i have none Saints - Vikings felt like a trap, & I said as much a couple of pages ago.
hopefully my 11 remaining players are enough to advance, and even more hopefully it’s a Ravens/Niners super bowl because that’s a fun story line (and bonus, my team is one of them)
i doubt I’ll win anything, but it’s a fun way to end the season. If it’s SF/BAL, there may be entries with more of those players. Or maybe not. Time will tell.
I have 2 packers (Adams/Lazard), 1 Texan, 1 Titan (QB) and lost 2 Bills & an Eagle. The players I lost were sacrificial lambs to help make the (now nonexistent) cut for week 1, so I don’t mourn their loss much.
i have none Saints - Vikings felt like a trap, & I said as much a couple of pages ago.
hopefully my 11 remaining players are enough to advance, and even more hopefully it’s a Ravens/Niners super bowl because that’s a fun story line (and bonus, my team is one of them)
i doubt I’ll win anything, but it’s a fun way to end the season. If it’s SF/BAL, there may be entries with more of those players. Or maybe not. Time will tell.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Doesn't matter, someone who "should" have been knocked out in week 1 could then go the distance.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
My concern isn't with 0's moving ahead. It's that there isn't an elimination of some kind in week 1 of the playoffs. That should be guaranteed. I definitely am in the camp of don't change anything this year (that would be laughable and 100 times worse).
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
So the games didnt fall in a helpful way for me but I have my Super Bowl guys can power me through the cuts. Could use underdogs winning the HOU and MIN games. That may let me squeeze by. Will score 7 guys this week. Max I can have score in the conference finals is only 5 
-QG
-QG
TheWinz
Footballguy
There is no contest querier available like in the regular season contest, but after looking at a bunch by hand, I can say many of this week's lower scores will be scoring quite high in week 3, unless there are some upsets. BAL, KC, and SF are owned alot.So the games didnt fall in a helpful way for me but I have my Super Bowl guys can power me through the cuts. Could use underdogs winning the HOU and MIN games. That may let me squeeze by. Will score 7 guys this week. Max I can have score in the conference finals is only 5
-QG
The difference here is that there are restrictions on counting players that then get eliminated. Knowing that you don't have to worry about getting through week 1 would be a huge advantage in roster construction (I am not saying this was known ahead of time and I am not sure how anyone could have deduced that without insider info).
The structure of the playoffs vs the regular season is the reason this is an issue. Again..i am not saying g anything should be done this year but it is something that should be put in for the future.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Regular season entries were down by about 17%. Contest opened on New Years Eve this year vs. New years Day, meaning we lost a day where the work surfers could find the entry form. If the number of e-mail reminders about the contest were the same, they weren't as obvious to me. Lastly, dfs interest has waned to nothing in the dfs forum. That seems like a good indicator of ff interest this late in the season.
I didn't expect this amount of fall off, but I did expect the cut line to fall and adjusted my selections accordingly.
JamieMurphy
Footballguy
Last year I didn't read the rules and picked all players on a bye week one, got bounced from the contest right away. Wasn't making that mistake twice. Yeah, it happens.
MikesVikes
Footballguy
I have
Lamar, Jimmy, Ingram, Mostert, Marquise Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Kittle, Andrews, Tucker and the Niners.
Also Tannehill, John Brown, Beasley, David Moore, and Jonnu Smith.
TheWinz
Footballguy
You are missing a key point. Entire teams don't get eliminated from the NFL if they lose week 1. Anyone who chose only from BAL, KC, SF, and GB is starting week 2 with a guaranteed $250 worth of players.
Last edited by a moderator:
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
So what? Good for them. I had worked out a KC-SF scenario and considered doing that as well but it just wasn’t worth the risk to me. Then I replaced SF with NO and the strategy was put aside.
cheese
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
I do remember the conversation in the playoff contest thread going back a few years (5+) was whether or not to punt the first week when entries barely cleared 4000. Looking at the trends though, that risk was not worth taking. Talk all about daily email reminders, new years day, low traffic in the daily forum...I don't think anyone would have predicted 3k entries. It does stink for those of us who spent some time strategizing, but in reality the contest is free and the prizes are not life changing. I scored 67 points this week so I probably would have been bounced in a "normal" year.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
TheWinz
Footballguy
As @barackdhouse already pointed out, he went back 5 years and there was a cutoff every year. I decided to take it back as far as I could find the URL's, and here we go:Ignoratio Elenchi said:
2018 - 6782 - cut was 79
2017 - 6679 - cut was 84
2016 - 6284 - cut was 91
2015 - 5522 - cut was 66
2014 - 4706 - cut was 50
2013 - 4146 - cut was 46
2012 - 5005 - cut was 65
2011 - 5914 - cut was 88
2010 - 6896 - cut was 92
2009 - 8884 - cut was 128
I could not find numbers for 2008 or earlier. Since 2009, the cut has remained at 4000 entries, so there was no reason for the staff to change it for this year. Looking at the numbers, even the Amazing Kreskin could not have predicted 3057 entries. Entry submissions had actually risen 5 straight years.
@Ignoratio Elenchi - I know you keep past data, but do you have data prior to 2009?
TheWinz
Footballguy
Just an FYI - There were no week 1 cuts in the regular season contest in 4 of the last 10 years (2019, 2017, 2012, and 2011).
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Added the day New Years fell and the date the playoffs started to your post. Note how entries tend to increase the later the playoffs start and depending where the holidays fall relative to that. 2011 was the lock out year which hurt the number of subscribers. Overlay the fluctuations in the number of regular season subscriber entries and you'll get a pretty good picture.
So next year when the playoffs start on the 9th, don't be surprised when the numbers shoot up next year and use it to your competitive advantage.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Of all the people here, you seem to be the most logical as to giving reasons why there was a decline. Still, looking at your days and dates, there HAS to be more involved with such a HUGE drop. Sure, the yearly contest dropped by 17% compared to last year (12586 vs 15115), but this contest dropped 55% compared to last year (3057 vs 6782). I forgot who first mentioned it, but I think marketing may not have been what it was in year's past. I don't read my FBG e-mails all that often, so I really can't say. All I know is I love the contest, and didn't need to be reminded.
At this point, I don't think anyone is still frustrated because there isn't a cut. What's done is done. It's now up to the FBG staff to decide how they want to handle next year. I can assure you the staff doesn't want a no cut line again. It really doesn't matter in the yearly contest, but it changes EVERYTHING in this contest. Next year's thread will be all about guessing number of entries if the rules stay the same.
Dacomish
Footballguy
Any chance we can move on from the conspiracy theories and actually talk about the contest going forward? This thread is always really pretty great to talk strategy and see how teams do after lock but it has seemed to turn rather dull. Can we make this thread great again?
Unfortunately for me I had Sea/NE SB. I still have a few AFC teams with 2 players each to go along with my 9 Seahawks so even if I make it I'll Prolly finish out of the running. At the rate teams fell last weekend never know how things will shake out.
Unfortunately for me I had Sea/NE SB. I still have a few AFC teams with 2 players each to go along with my 9 Seahawks so even if I make it I'll Prolly finish out of the running. At the rate teams fell last weekend never know how things will shake out.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Sounds good, let's do that. I clicked through alot of teams over the last few days, and don't remember seeing too many entries stacked with that many SEA players, so you still have a shot. Here are a few numbers that are on your side - over the last 4 years, the winning entry has had the following amounts of players - 7, 11, 10, 6
Steeler
Footballguy
I have a KC / SF Super Bowl with 5 players from each team - probably won't be enough even if those teams make it because I probably will be eliminated this week.
I have 2 player each from NO and PHI and one each from HOU / TEN IIRC. I'm only going to have 6 players this week and my only chance to advance is to have TEN upset BAL which only marginally helps me because that would give me 5 players in the Championship round rather than 4 players.
I have 2 player each from NO and PHI and one each from HOU / TEN IIRC. I'm only going to have 6 players this week and my only chance to advance is to have TEN upset BAL which only marginally helps me because that would give me 5 players in the Championship round rather than 4 players.
Last edited by a moderator:
Dacomish
Footballguy
With 11 counting this week I'm hopefully safe.
But always am worried that if I don't have 7-8 in CC ship week then it's tough to get into the finals. I have 5 for sure based on matchups but if SF wins it would be 6 so I'm worried there isn't enough meat on the bone there.
2nd round always seems to have a decent cut off but often the 3rd round can seem pretty high too!
Still an awesome contest to try and survive!
BassNBrew
Footballguy
You'll be fine if you can get by this week and don't totally whiff on the points in the championship round (example, you have Kelce and Hill goes off while Kelce donuts). This week is always the big hurdle.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I mentioned the marketing thing. Every year we get more and more marketing e-mails in general. I've got 25000 unleaded emails in just from the last 9 months. Like you, I love these contests so I don't need a reminder. 5% or less of the FBG subscriber base is like us.
I'll be the first to admit I didn't expect a 55% drop. Kicking myself for not analyzing this in depth before the lock. I was excepting a cut in in the 30-50 range. I think it was just a perfect storm of falling subscriptions, an early January playoff start date, and New Years falling right in the middle of the week. I think a lot of people actually worked on the 2nd and 3rd this year rather than surfed.
Here's the thing. I hope FBG doesn't change a thing and their subscriber numbers hold. Next year the numbers of entries will be up big time with a Jan 9th playoff start date. That's an entire work week of time to run across this contest on the forums or via e-mail reminders. People will be assuming no cut and bam, the cut will be back. That cut will take out competitive entires and let frivolous ones advance to the later rounds. Rather than complain, we should just file this tidbit away and attempt to profit.
TheWinz
Footballguy
I've got 10 counting this week, but a few of them aren't expected to do much. As long as KC survives, I've got a shot. From the bunch of entries I did see, my only hope is a KC/SEA or KC/GB SB, and even then, I would have to hope those stacked with KC players get eliminated. I have no BAL or MIN players, so I hope they survive week 2, then fizzle week 3.
Zegras11
Footballguy
because it's free. You charged $35 for the new contest and got how many entries?
I think the new contest played a big factor in the less entries. Each one requires some time to come up with optimal teams as picking playoff team game winners is a huge part of both and people chose the other one because of its potential.
Last edited by a moderator:
matuski
Footballguy
I almost missed it, had completely forgot about it, and was utterly unaware until I just happened to see this thread last week.
I imagine you sent out emails, but the volume of emails FBG sends out.. lost in the spam.
Last edited by a moderator:
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I put up a respectable 95 in WC weekend because I wanted to ensure I make it past the cut. Luckily I only lost Michael Thomas and John Brown and have what I think is a fairly competitive team for the duration. I'm not going to say I would have faded Michael Thomas if I had known I didn't need to make it past WC weekend, but I probably would have faded Brown. I still would have kept Metcalf & Henry but probably not David Moore and Jonnu Smith, and in turn I would have stocked up on another couple Ravens and Niners, particularly Mark Ingram, who I could not seem to afford in any of the iterations I had tried.
Oh well, good luck to everyone in the divisionals.
Oh well, good luck to everyone in the divisionals.
I think you're right. We'd likely get more entries if we charged $5 for it. LOL.because it's free. You charged $35 for the new contest and got how many entries?
Dang. I know that's a problem. It seems like some people think we send too much but for others, we don't send enough. I want to work on that for 2020.
Zegras11
Footballguy
I only lost two players (John Brown & Boston Scott) and have 8 counting players for this week. I scored 114 last week. I think I am in decent shape to move on for at least one more week. If Tenn, KC, Sea, and SF win then I have a good shot at surviving week 3. I have no idea if I have any shot to win anything though.
John Brown $13 15.80
Ryan Tannehill $14 9.70
Derrick Henry $15 26.90
Patrick Mahomes $36 0.00
Damien Williams $16 0.00
LeSean McCoy $10 0.00
Demarcus Robinson $4 0.00
Travis Kelce $22 0.00
Russell Wilson $26 26.75
DK Metcalf $15 29.00
Boston Scott $8 6.30
Jimmy Garoppolo $25 0.00
Raheem Mostert $14 0.00
Kendrick Bourne $11 0.00
George Kittle $21 0.00
Ryan Tannehill $14 9.70
Derrick Henry $15 26.90
Patrick Mahomes $36 0.00
Damien Williams $16 0.00
LeSean McCoy $10 0.00
Demarcus Robinson $4 0.00
Travis Kelce $22 0.00
Russell Wilson $26 26.75
DK Metcalf $15 29.00
Jimmy Garoppolo $25 0.00
Raheem Mostert $14 0.00
Kendrick Bourne $11 0.00
George Kittle $21 0.00
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I'm curious....do you get meaningful results when you put up polls about such things? By which I mean is there enough of a response to believe poll results that say, for example sake, that 70% of the user community thinks too much mail and 13% thinks not enough mail? Do you have "findings" you can share?
TheWinz
Footballguy
I was mainly just talking about informal feedback I get. I try to listen a lot.
