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Dynasty & Redraft: WR Henry Ruggs III, Raiders


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40 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

We've been hoping they'd use Jacobs correctly for some time now. I wouldn't be so confident they'll figure out how to use Ruggs.

Last year certainly didnt inspire confidence - but his tag is pretty low.   

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12 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

people shouldn't give up and sell for peanuts after just one year.  

If you don’t sell for peanuts today, you’re outright dropping him in 2022. 

Cut your losses, jettison now

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10 hours ago, tangfoot said:

If you don’t sell for peanuts today, you’re outright dropping him in 2022. 

Cut your losses, jettison now

drafting him in the 1st round of rookie drafts and selling him for pocket lint after one year is not a great way to play fantasy football IMO.  I'd rather go down with the ship before doing that, in the hope he improves year two and beyond.

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4.26 in the latest timed 40! Mecole Hardman beat him with a 4.22.

Our guy is fast. Real fast. Looks a bit jacked up. Let's see if it holds, huh?

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Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

What did he flash?  No signs of slowing down?  Perhaps he should get started before slowing down.

He had that huge catch in week 1 I guess

Edited by Ilov80s
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14 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

He had that huge catch in week 1 I guess

Game winner against the Jets. Nail in the coffin of the Chiefs. After that, ehhhhh...not a whole lot.

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You can probably acquire John Brown for relatively little, unless you're dealing with someone super-savvy.

Then, for basically a little bit more than you paid for Ruggs, you get the odds-on 2021 WR1 for the Raiders, and you can keep Ruggs on your bench while discovering whether he's the heir-apparent, or not.

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17 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Game winner against the Jets. Nail in the coffin of the Chiefs. After that, ehhhhh...not a whole lot.

Ahhh yes forgot about that play 

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12 minutes ago, nittanylion said:

You can probably acquire John Brown for relatively little, unless you're dealing with someone super-savvy.

Then, for basically a little bit more than you paid for Ruggs, you get the odds-on 2021 WR1 for the Raiders, and you can keep Ruggs on your bench while discovering whether he's the heir-apparent, or not.

No risk in trying because he’s so cheap but tiny 30 year old WR with health concerns means there is a good reason he’s so cheap. 

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13 minutes ago, nittanylion said:

You can probably acquire John Brown for relatively little, unless you're dealing with someone super-savvy.

Then, for basically a little bit more than you paid for Ruggs, you get the odds-on 2021 WR1 for the Raiders, and you can keep Ruggs on your bench while discovering whether he's the heir-apparent, or not.

I agree. John Brown is a quality receiver Ruggs can learn something from. Similar builds, similar speed, Brown is the much better route runner at this point.

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1 minute ago, Ilov80s said:

No risk in trying because he’s so cheap but tiny 30 year old WR with health concerns means there is a good reason he’s so cheap. 

Knowing my luck, Brown will have a full year of health and Ruggs will see a lot of pine.

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10 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

He could have been one of the greatest heroes in Jets' history if not for the stupid Rams. 

Y U NO LIKE ZACH?

Thus Zach Zarathustra?

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1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I've made my peace.

Give it about four-plus months. That might not be peace you're feeling.

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7 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Give it about four-plus months. That might not be peace you're feeling.

I feel like Zach’s mom has been a great addition to the Jets circus.

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4 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I feel like Zach’s mom has been a great addition to the Jets circus.

I have made myself almost blissfully unaware of what is going on with that right now. We heard it in the Jets thread back around the draft but all of us quickly realized what element of New York media that was and promptly put it with the millions of Stern interviews that will forever remain in a closet somewhere, unheard by me, at least.

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4 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I have made myself almost blissfully unaware of what is going on with that right now. We heard it in the Jets thread back around the draft but all of us quickly realized what element of New York media that was and promptly put it with the millions of Stern interviews that will forever remain in a closet somewhere, unheard by me, at least.

Yeah she’s just a social media disaster waiting to happen. If I’m Zach’a agent I’m demanding she delete all her accounts ASAP.

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30 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

No risk in trying because he’s so cheap but tiny 30 year old WR with health concerns means there is a good reason he’s so cheap. 

Nelson Agholor was the #1 WR for the Raiders in 2020, beating out Ruggs, Edwards and everyone else. Certainly no one expected that...but happen, it did. John Brown, although a bit of a different build, is still philosophically the same type of WR as Agholor, and career-wise, looks like he might be the better NFL Player than Agholor. Brown was brought in to replace Agholor, not to be the #3 or even #2 WR on the Raiders, unless he gets beat out for the job, by Ruggs, particularly. No one on that Roster, including Ruggs, has shown they are 'NFL good' enough to beat out an established veteran like Brown, who was WR19 in 2019 as the WR1 for the Bills, notching 72/1060/6 over 15 games. The reason Brown might be cheap may be largely because truth has an annoying habit of being stranger than fiction. Based on 2020, there's no reason to believe Ruggs can beat out Brown, and if Brown is the Raiders #1, and plays a full slate (admittedly, he could get dinged), he reasonably could equal or better the WR22 #'s of 2020 Agholor (48/896/8 - probably not 8TD, but 6 is reasonable, with more receptions/yards), and for his ADP, Brown is potentially one of absolute steals of 2021.

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That all makes logical sense but also sometimes rookie WRs improve after a year and WRs who performed well at 28 sometimes don’t perform so well at 30. 

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Ruggs is one of the more polarizing stories this year. On one hand you can say that he struggled to make an impact due to COVID, lack of training camp, injuries, etc.. Yet guys like Jefferson and Lamb had no problems taking off in year 1 with the same constraints (albeit not injury).

Ruggs' struggles relative to those guys could be some part system and some part talent relative to the other guys. In any case, the first few games of the season should be telling.

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1 hour ago, zamboni said:

Yet guys like Jefferson and Lamb had no problems taking off in year 1 with the same constraints (albeit not injury).

You wrote off this factor way too much/quickly in your post. Ruggs got dinged week 1 and never played healthy all year. Despite his physical struggles, he flashed speed and playmaking at the NFL level. The major question about him headed into year 2 and beyond is whether or not his injury issues last year were fluky or a harbinger of his ability to deal with NFL rigor. If he can stay healthy, Gruden is going to dial up big plays for this guy. The floor is low, but his ceiling is still extremely high. I wouldn't pay 100 on the 2020 dollar, but if peanuts is his price now, he seems like an excellent buy low candidate IMHO.

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I keep going back & forth on Ruggs. One minute I think he takes a positive leap. The next, I say nah, will not happen. Kicking around the idea of offering AB in PPR dynasty for him, but even then I am not sure I'd rather have Ruggs LOL. I [i]don't[/i] need WR help on that team...

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  • 2 weeks later...


 

Quote

Vic Tafur @VicTafur

Hunter Renfrow said @__RUGGS “opened up the field for everyone else last season. You can’t put stats on that. He is a great player.” #Raiders

https://twitter.com/victafur/status/1400189259366080516?s=21
 

Quote

Josh Dubow @JoshDubowAP

Per NFLGSIS, the #Raiders averaged 7.77 yards per pass play with Ruggs on the field last year compared to 7.25 when he wasn't.

https://twitter.com/joshdubowap/status/1400194582944653316?s=21

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Posted (edited)

Oof. Well, I guess in counterpoint I'll post the Henry Ruggs get-the-fans-pumped-up workout video that I first saw on the Raiders site. Let's hope against hope for a brighter future.

https://youtu.be/gNFwj0AbeIo

PFF had an article about whether he'd breakout this year. They had statistical comps from college and the pros. They were not impressive comparisons. The best was Will Fuller, who we could only dream of Ruggs becoming.

The others: Justin Hunter, Donnie Avery, Anthony Gonzalez, Titus Young, Phillip Dorsett, Dante Pettis, Nelson Agholor, Marquise Brown.

Ooof.

Edited by rockaction
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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Oof. Well, I guess in counterpoint I'll post the Henry Ruggs get-the-fans-pumped-up workout video that I first saw on the Raiders site. Let's hope against hope for a brighter future.

https://youtu.be/gNFwj0AbeIo

PFF had an article about whether he'd breakout this year. They had statistical comps from college and the pros. They were not impressive comparisons. The best was Will Fuller, who one could only dream of Ruggs becoming.

The others: Justin Hunter, Donnie Avery, Anthony Gonzalez, Titus Young, Phillip Dorsett, Dante Pettis, Nelson Algholor, Marquise Brown.

Ooof.

Brutal comps - but the kid has shown to have speed to burn and can catch.....last year was simply a disaster on many fronts.  Why would they draft him as the top WR to just use as a decoy?  Its up to the coaching staff.....if they want him to shine they could easily incorporate him into a big part of the O with screens, sweeps, etc....they have egg on their face right now for the pick....I can see a rebound year and he's dirt cheap to acquire as a bench WR....I see good upside.  

Edited by Kiddnets
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Just now, Kiddnets said:

Brutal comps - but the kid has shown to have speed to burn and can catch.....last year was simply a disaster on many fronts.  Why would they draft him as the top WR to just use as a decoy?  Its up to the coaching staff.....if they want him to shine they could easily incorporate him into a big part of the O with screens, sweeps, etc....they have egg on their face right now for the pick....I can see a rebound year and he's dirt cheap to acquire as a bench WR....I see good upside.  

Agreed on all almost all counts, really. It was disaster. I can't fathom that they drafted him to simply be a decoy. He is dirt cheap to acquire. My hope is that he's got good upside for a bounce-back year, but knowing the Raiders personnel and their coaches and who and how their offense runs, I'm not so sanguine.

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

Agreed on all almost all counts, really. It was disaster. I can't fathom that they drafted him to simply be a decoy. He is dirt cheap to acquire. My hope is that he's got good upside for a bounce-back year, but knowing the Raiders personnel and their coaches and who and how their offense runs, I'm not so sanguine.

No training camp, injuries, COVID, Aghlor balling.....kid couldnt catch a break.  Im not high on the coaches either - sometimes there is too much security lol......but maybe they were protecting him from too much contact as he was dinged up.....if they dont find ways to get him the ball this year then he's probably toast but I can definitely see a breakout if the coaches cooperate lol.  

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10 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

I can see a breakout if things go well and would be holding BUT if another owner and I were working on a deal and he was a piece the other owner states he needs or puts the deal over the top (depending on the deal of course) I'd do it.

Who is that other owner that just needs Ruggs to put it over the top? His value is a bit looooooowwwwww right now.

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51 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Who is that other owner that just needs Ruggs to put it over the top? His value is a bit looooooowwwwww right now.

I guess what I mean is if we are countering back and forth and he says "give me Ruggs and it's a deal." I did that to move up in the rookie draft. I wasn't going to say no over Henry Ruggs. Moved up from 1.11 to 1.04. Kind of like a 3rd round rookie pick to me. If I really want the deal to get done and the guy wants a 3rd, I'm not going to get tough and say no, if I really think it's worth it.

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5 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

I guess what I mean is if we are countering back and forth and he says "give me Ruggs and it's a deal." I did that to move up in the rookie draft. I wasn't going to say no over Henry Ruggs. Moved up from 1.11 to 1.04. Kind of like a 3rd round rookie pick to me. If I really want the deal to get done and the guy wants a 3rd, I'm not going to get tough and say no, if I really think it's worth it.

Wow. That can't be all you gave up, though. What was the deal, just out of curiosity?

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Dude was a Covid rookie dealing with multiple nagging injuries all year long, starting with a severe offseason thigh puncture and then a mysterious leg injury in game 1, prior to which he flashed some serious eye test candy. Despite the injuries and Agolor's unexpected strangle on his position, Ruggs continued to pass the eye test with major flashes during the year, including  a very natural and sound catching technique. His usage and targets were limited all season, but when called upon, he actually performed quite well, leading all rookie WRs in the season-long YPC metric. He's also received rave reviews from teammates, including Carr for his work ethic and talent.

And yet here a bunch of you dynasty folks are valuing him at the equivalent of a bag of chips heading into this season. Maybe you are right, but I suspect anyone who has traded for him recently is going to end up the winner of those deals, starting as soon as this season. To me, the only legit concern here is durability due to his build. The talent is there IMO, and the opportunity likely will be as well - there is a vacuum for targets in this Raider offense after Waller Baller, and would it really be a surprise if Ruggs takes the lion's share of those and adds that to his targets last season? Extrapolate his YPC and add a sandwich to the bag o chips. :)

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, LawFitz said:

Ruggs continued to pass the eye test with major flashes during the year, including  a very natural and sound catching technique.

I agree that when asked to high point or to catch a ball with hands, Ruggs did just fine, even though he's down as having a few drops here and there. We can probably chalk that up to those coming on deep passes, but that should be his bread and butter; then again, it's year one with no training camp. I know that he was three-five yards shy of three extra touchdowns on the year, one in Carolina, one in Atlanta, and one against Cleveland that was called incomplete but shouldn't have been. His year looks a little different but for those few extra yards here and there.

I'm willing to wait it out and see what he has going for him because I think he's really talented, but the proof will sort of have to be in the pudding this year. You'd at least like to see his numbers improve to around 850-900 yards or so on the year. That would justify his spot on most rosters. What disheartens me most about Ruggs is not his catching, nor his route running (though that needed work by all accounts), but his inability to juke defenders at all. He's got strictly straight line speed and not much wiggle right now, though if they open up his hips, that could change somewhat. Let's see where all the off-season work went and we'll be able to judge, because throwing him away for a third rounder isn't really an option if you took him in the first, faulty logic be damned. I'd rather go down with the ship and get charged the price of admission rather than give him up for nothing right now.

 

Edited by rockaction
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Quote

Speaking Wednesday, coach Jon Gruden said Henry Ruggs "looks much better" in his second year.

Specifically, Gruden wants to get Ruggs more involved in the offense and not just use him as a decoy. The first wideout off the board in the 2020 draft at No. 12 overall, Ruggs disappointed with a mere 26 catches for 452 yards and two touchdowns as a rookie. Ruggs had just one 100-yard game, zero games of more than three catches, and a pair of zero-balls. Ruggs was running routes way down the field, and Derek Carr is a quarterback who doesn't like to throw it deep, instead settling for high-percentage throws in the short areas of the field and between the hash marks. Ruggs needs a more diverse route tree and for Carr to air it out more. We'll believe it when we see it, but it does help that Carr-favorite Nelson Agholor is now in New England. Ruggs should be treated as a WR5 for fantasy until we see the Raiders feed him more targets.

SOURCE: Vic Tafur on Twitter

Jun 16, 2021, 2:20 PM ET

 

 

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On 5/21/2021 at 9:43 AM, rockaction said:

I agree. John Brown is a quality receiver Ruggs can learn something from. Similar builds, similar speed, Brown is the much better route runner at this point.

Great point. Smoke is a filthy route runner. His highlight reel the year before Diggs when he went off as WR1 is great. His problem was soft tissue injuries and sickle cell that causes him to heal slower. Such an under appreciated guy.

I think Ruggs has a chance to be very good. He just needs short and intermediate catch and run situations. He has great speed and great hands. It used to be a 3 year acclimation. I feel like it’s closer to 2 now. Especially a covid rookie year. Team is invested. Selling now is moronic unless you are in a roster spot situation. 

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On 5/21/2021 at 8:28 AM, nittanylion said:

You can probably acquire John Brown for relatively little, unless you're dealing with someone super-savvy.

Then, for basically a little bit more than you paid for Ruggs, you get the odds-on 2021 WR1 for the Raiders, and you can keep Ruggs on your bench while discovering whether he's the heir-apparent, or not.

Maybe. That is until Smokey gets injured again.

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On 6/9/2021 at 3:20 PM, LawFitz said:

Dude was a Covid rookie dealing with multiple nagging injuries all year long, starting with a severe offseason thigh puncture and then a mysterious leg injury in game 1, prior to which he flashed some serious eye test candy. Despite the injuries and Agolor's unexpected strangle on his position, Ruggs continued to pass the eye test with major flashes during the year, including  a very natural and sound catching technique. His usage and targets were limited all season, but when called upon, he actually performed quite well, leading all rookie WRs in the season-long YPC metric. He's also received rave reviews from teammates, including Carr for his work ethic and talent.

And yet here a bunch of you dynasty folks are valuing him at the equivalent of a bag of chips heading into this season. Maybe you are right, but I suspect anyone who has traded for him recently is going to end up the winner of those deals, starting as soon as this season. To me, the only legit concern here is durability due to his build. The talent is there IMO, and the opportunity likely will be as well - there is a vacuum for targets in this Raider offense after Waller Baller, and would it really be a surprise if Ruggs takes the lion's share of those and adds that to his targets last season? Extrapolate his YPC and add a sandwich to the bag o chips. :)

Maybe you can clarify this for me. This is a question I have posed to several Raiders fans before and I never get an answer.

Was Agholor playing the X WR position? Because I believe that he was and that job was Bryan Edwards to start the season not Ruggs. So Agholor took that job from Edwards not Ruggs but you seem to be saying something else.

Did Ruggs ever play the X?? Because its my understanding that Ruggs would play the Z but that the Z is usually Darren Waller over anyone else even though he is designated as a TE.

Am I wrong about this? I did only watch like 2 Raiders games last year and some reading about Edwards who I do have on some of my fantasy teams.

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On 6/16/2021 at 1:45 PM, Faust said:

Speaking Wednesday, coach Jon Gruden said Henry Ruggs "looks much better" in his second year.

Specifically, Gruden wants to get Ruggs more involved in the offense and not just use him as a decoy. The first wideout off the board in the 2020 draft at No. 12 overall, Ruggs disappointed with a mere 26 catches for 452 yards and two touchdowns as a rookie. Ruggs had just one 100-yard game, zero games of more than three catches, and a pair of zero-balls. Ruggs was running routes way down the field, and Derek Carr is a quarterback who doesn't like to throw it deep, instead settling for high-percentage throws in the short areas of the field and between the hash marks. Ruggs needs a more diverse route tree and for Carr to air it out more. We'll believe it when we see it, but it does help that Carr-favorite Nelson Agholor is now in New England. Ruggs should be treated as a WR5 for fantasy until we see the Raiders feed him more targets.

SOURCE: Vic Tafur on Twitter

Jun 16, 2021, 2:20 PM ET

 

So Chucky takes Ruggs with the 12th overall pick of the draft to use him as decoy?

I think he has too long of a leash. Some one needs to be accountable for this mismanagement of resources.

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