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☹ Official 2020 Las Vegas Raiders thread ☹


Hankmoody

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34 minutes ago, Garrett said:

I think Raiders fans would all agree the less flags (finally) is great, but man Maxx Crosby was blatantly held when he had a wide open shot at the QB early in the game.  It was in wide open space and the official was standing right there; no idea how that was not called.

You know how.

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We finally saw a glimpse why Mayock drafted Ferrell so (too) high on the 4th and 1 stop. Sacks are flashy, sacks are what the media talks about, they show up on the stat sheets. But there are other ways to make game changing plays. Ferrell does that. He will probably never be the double digit sack guy, but he will be that edge setter. Run stuffer, lunch pail player who comes to work everyday and the guy the front 7 rallies around. It's one play in one game, but it won the game. I dont care what anyone says. Ferrell won that game and hes a difference maker.

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@kittenmittens -

Josh Jacobs is a fine RB. Perhaps, quietly, the finest in the entire league.

Quote

Evert Geerlings @E_Geerlings

Josh Jacobs rushed for 81 yards after contact in Sunday's win, per @PFF.

Totaling 93 yards on the ground, that means 87% of his 93 yards came after being hit. Jacobs also forced 10 missed tackles as a rusher, most in Week 1 after leading the NFL in 2019 with 70.

Led the NFL in missed tackles last year, despite missing three games entirely and playing nearly half of the games he did appear in with a broken shoulder. Nope, not worth a (late) 1st round pick at all.

Cheers, mahomie.

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5 minutes ago, zamboni said:

Any local buzz about Ruggs' injury?

He's downplaying it and says he's going to be fine, although Gruden is being much quieter about it. A bit concerning that he never touched the ball again after returning from the injury.

Nothing more than what you stated already. They're being very quiet about all their injuries right now. Hoping for the best because once Ruggs left the game, the offense wasn't the same. 

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This isn't much of an update, but it's something;

HENRY RUGGSWR, LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Raiders coach Jon Gruden came away impressed with Henry Ruggs' toughness after he played through a knee injury Sunday. 

“I like the fact that he came back and played through something,” Gruden said. “That’s what the great ones do. They play through pain, they play through difficult situations. He did that.” That's great, but the takeaway is that Ruggs has a knee issue — it was initially unclear if it was knee or ankle — and that Ruggs received zero touches after returning to play through the ailment in the second half. He figures to be a limited participant in this week's practices, and will be a volatile WR4 for Week 2 against the Saints. 

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20 hours ago, Sarlakticacid said:

Forgot to add that Booker looked solid in most of his action when giving Jacobs a breather

 

18 hours ago, Chadstroma said:

Yup. Jacobs has 49 of 63 snaps so when Booker got on the field he made an impact. Booker took 8 snaps and made the most of them for sure. 4 carries for 29 yards (7.2 average) and 3 receptions for 23 yards (7.7 average).

May need to eat crow on my view of Booker, he looked solid, and makes me think from a fantasy perspective (given Richard's usage, or lack thereof) that Jacobs owners could do worse to roster him as a cuff, and that he may actually be a lotto ticket this season.

 

9 hours ago, Garrett said:

That's the one -- thanks! Woo baby that's a great stick.

 

9 hours ago, Garrett said:

Maxx Crosby was blatantly held when he had a wide open shot at the QB early in the game.  It was in wide open space and the official was standing right there; no idea how that was not called.

I think we need to get used to it. Maxx is a disruptive force and I think teams are accounting for him. He's nowhere near the same league as Aaron Donald, but imagine Donald similarly gets held a ton and it's missed because they simply need to hold him in some way on every play. 

 

2 hours ago, Bruno2 said:

Saw a report on NFL Network that Trent Brown's injury is the same calf injury he's been nursing all training camp. Its considered not serious and could start Monday night. 

The lack of Kwiatkowski news is what has me concerned personally. 

I think he'll play but the fact that it flared up after being an issue in camp is not good in my mind. We need the big guy as an anchor and force. C'mon, Trent, heal up -- and eat more bananas and less fruit by the foot.

Kwiatkowski (does this guy have a shorter nickname?) had an MRI that confirmed he didn't tear a pec. Haven't seen additional updates but assume he'll be back playing next week.

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4 hours ago, LawFitz said:

@kittenmittens -

Josh Jacobs is a fine RB. Perhaps, quietly, the finest in the entire league.

Led the NFL in missed tackles last year, despite missing three games entirely and playing nearly half of the games he did appear in with a broken shoulder. Nope, not worth a (late) 1st round pick at all.

Cheers, mahomie.

Now I am not saying Barkley isn't the man and everyone has bad days but I couldn't help but smile and think of our friend here with his 15 attempts for 6 yard day. I resisted the urge to poke at him more because I have been pretty relentless at it and honestly was starting to feel bad. 

We all have opinions and all gave been wrong. Something about his posts really rubbed me the wrong way though. 

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4 hours ago, zamboni said:

Any local buzz about Ruggs' injury?

He's downplaying it and says he's going to be fine, although Gruden is being much quieter about it. A bit concerning that he never touched the ball again after returning from the injury.

It doesn't appear to be anything to worry about. 

Kwiat sounds like he may miss a couple of weeks. 

T. Brown is the most worrisome to me. Samw injury that kept him iut for most of pre-season and reinjured it out the gate. Seems likw sone sort of lingering issue. 

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18 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Kwiatkowski (does this guy have a shorter nickname?) had an MRI that confirmed he didn't tear a pec. Haven't seen additional updates but assume he'll be back playing next week.

I am going with Kwiat for now. Typing his whole name hurts both my head and fingers. 

And talking about names, it is Abram not Abrams. (Not pointed at you Stomp, just a public service announcement)

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The NO offense is still dangerous but man... their offense looks a whole lot different with Thomas being out. 

Opposite of Emanuel Sanders you are looking at Tre'Quan Smith. Man.... that is a huge drop off. Deonte Harris, Marquez Callaway and Lil'jordan Humphrey (is that seriously his name) round out the receivers. I have faith in Littleton to keep Cook from killing us so if we key on Kamara and keep him in check then we have a good shot defensively to hold up well and allow our offense to win this for us. 

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1 hour ago, Chadstroma said:

The NO offense is still dangerous but man... their offense looks a whole lot different with Thomas being out. 

Opposite of Emanuel Sanders you are looking at Tre'Quan Smith. Man.... that is a huge drop off. Deonte Harris, Marquez Callaway and Lil'jordan Humphrey (is that seriously his name) round out the receivers. I have faith in Littleton to keep Cook from killing us so if we key on Kamara and keep him in check then we have a good shot defensively to hold up well and allow our offense to win this for us. 

The Saints seem to play better, and Payton calls a better game when the Saints are missing a big weapon.  He simplifies things, and is more likely to call a physical game.  5-0 without Brees and Murray looked great when Kamara was out last year.  Of course, the Saints have way less depth after Thomas than they do at those positions.  For some unexplained reason, the defense also seems to play better.  Should be a fun game.

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4 hours ago, Chadstroma said:

Now I am not saying Barkley isn't the man and everyone has bad days but I couldn't help but smile and think of our friend here with his 15 attempts for 6 yard day. I resisted the urge to poke at him more because I have been pretty relentless at it and honestly was starting to feel bad. 

We all have opinions and all gave been wrong. Something about his posts really rubbed me the wrong way though. 

Eh, we've all done it at some point. Gave a (perhaps) misinformed opinion, and then dug heels when confronted with opposing opinions/facts. No quicker way to annoy someone in the know than to be wrong and at the same time very unwilling to consider that you *might* be wrong. But who knows, maybe he'll ultimately be proven right. At this point, given all of the evidence I highly doubt that, barring injury - but even then it would be due to technicality. Jacobs is the ####### man, and I am beyond glad the Raiders spent first round capital to secure him.

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Taken from another board:

Quote

Derek Carr is now the all-time Raider leader in 4th qtr comeback victories (19)

Among QBs that played the majority of their career with the Silver & Black, no other Raider QB has more comeback 4th qtr victories than DC. He broke the tie with Lamonica and Plunkett (both 18). George Blanda had 17, and Rich Gannon & Kenny Stabler had 16 apiece.

With one more this season, he will join Ben Roethlisberger as the only two QBs in NFL history to have 20 4th qtr. comeback victories before age 30.

One of several reasons why I continue to leave the optimism door open for Carr. Dude finally has a good team (and coach?) around him. Time to shine. So far, so good. IDGAF about passing yards/TDs when the offense scores 34 and the QB plays mistake-free football in a win that had zero room for error.

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37 minutes ago, Zigg said:

The Saints seem to play better, and Payton calls a better game when the Saints are missing a big weapon.  He simplifies things, and is more likely to call a physical game.  5-0 without Brees and Murray looked great when Kamara was out last year.  Of course, the Saints have way less depth after Thomas than they do at those positions.  For some unexplained reason, the defense also seems to play better.  Should be a fun game.

Brees is great and Kamara is great but Teddy sure doesn't suck and Murray doesn't suck. Those WR's after Thomas and Sanders.... well.... they suck unless they are total diamonds in the rough. I had no clue the Saints were so thin at WR when they have seemingly been so deep at that position for so many years. 

I didn't watch the whole game but the parts I did see, the NO offense didn't look like the NO offense of the last... what? 10 years? 

Maybe I am pushing out the vibes that I want to see vibed in real life but I went from "well, that helps us" when hearing about Thomas to then looking up their depth chart and being like "wow, we might be able to contain this offense even with Brees and Kamara". That being said, Payton knows how to put an offense together and until Brees starts looking his age, I am not counting him out. Kamara, Sanders and Cooks are still some pretty powerful weapons to use for sure. 

I am not saying we are going to hold the offense and win but I am went from a maybe 10-15% change to closer to 45-50% chance of our defense holding the fort against them enough for our offense to do the work and get a win. If Kwiat was playing, that would have popped me into the positive territory. 

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9 hours ago, LawFitz said:

@kittenmittens -

Josh Jacobs is a fine RB. Perhaps, quietly, the finest in the entire league.

Led the NFL in missed tackles last year, despite missing three games entirely and playing nearly half of the games he did appear in with a broken shoulder. Nope, not worth a (late) 1st round pick at all.

Cheers, mahomie.

He's good but not great.  If you think that he is better than or even on the same level as CMC or Saquon I think you are very wrong though.  I think it's quite a stretch to put Jacobs in the same converation.  FWIW I was saying it was bad strategy to use a first on an RB when your team isn't ready to compete.

 

4 hours ago, Chadstroma said:

Now I am not saying Barkley isn't the man and everyone has bad days but I couldn't help but smile and think of our friend here with his 15 attempts for 6 yard day. I resisted the urge to poke at him more because I have been pretty relentless at it and honestly was starting to feel bad. 

We all have opinions and all gave been wrong. Something about his posts really rubbed me the wrong way though. 

:lol:

Please poke away. 

FWIW I don't think it's a very good process to evaluate that Jacobs is a better than Saquon because of one game where Jacobs faced the worst defense in the league and Saquon faced the best.  Jacobs has a lot to prove in the passing game before he's even in the conversation.

I wouldn't be taking any victory laps yet, the Raiders barely beat the Panthers.  Let's continue the friendly banter as the season goes on, I'm happy to be poked and eat crow if I am wrong.

 

 

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33 minutes ago, LawFitz said:

Eh, we've all done it at some point. Gave a (perhaps) misinformed opinion, and then dug heels when confronted with opposing opinions/facts. No quicker way to annoy someone in the know than to be wrong and at the same time very unwilling to consider that you *might* be wrong. But who knows, maybe he'll ultimately be proven right. At this point, given all of the evidence I highly doubt that, barring injury - but even then it would be due to technicality. Jacobs is the ####### man, and I am beyond glad the Raiders spent first round capital to secure him.

Jacobs is the man. It was clear last year. I honestly didn't even read anything after the BS Jacobs is "fine" because he isn't Barkley or Elliott. Those are two damn good RB's but Jacobs is earning his seat next to them in that top tier RB talk. You can't watch Raider games from last year or this first game and say otherwise because if you do then you are obviously biased beyond belief and I have no desire to talk to you (which is how it came off to me and why it rubbed me wrong) or you have no idea about anything football and in that case, stop talking and start learning. Or I guess you could just be so genuinely wrong. I mean... that is a pretty big wiff... but it is possible. 

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10 minutes ago, LawFitz said:

Taken from another board:

One of several reasons why I continue to leave the optimism door open for Carr. Dude finally has a good team (and coach?) around him. Time to shine. So far, so good. IDGAF about passing yards/TDs when the offense scores 34 and the QB plays mistake-free football in a win that had zero room for error.

You know me. No disagreement here. I am likely Carr's biggest supporter in here. 

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5 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

He's good but not great.  If you think that he is better than or even on the same level as CMC or Saquon I think you are very wrong though.  I think it's quite a stretch to put Jacobs in the same converation.  FWIW I was saying it was bad strategy to use a first on an RB when your team isn't ready to compete.

 

:lol:

Please poke away. 

FWIW I don't think it's a very good process to evaluate that Jacobs is a better than Saquon because of one game where Jacobs faced the worst defense in the league and Saquon faced the best.  Jacobs has a lot to prove in the passing game before he's even in the conversation.

I wouldn't be taking any victory laps yet, the Raiders barely beat the Panthers.  Let's continue the friendly banter as the season goes on, I'm happy to be poked and eat crow if I am wrong.

 

 

Serious question.... do you watch Raider games?

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6 minutes ago, Chadstroma said:

Jacobs is the man. It was clear last year. I honestly didn't even read anything after the BS Jacobs is "fine" because he isn't Barkley or Elliott. Those are two damn good RB's but Jacobs is earning his seat next to them in that top tier RB talk. You can't watch Raider games from last year or this first game and say otherwise because if you do then you are obviously biased beyond belief and I have no desire to talk to you (which is how it came off to me and why it rubbed me wrong) or you have no idea about anything football and in that case, stop talking and start learning. Or I guess you could just be so genuinely wrong. I mean... that is a pretty big wiff... but it is possible. 

What happens to backs like Jacobs, admittedly anecdotally, is that they don't have enough juice to overcome the eventual "losing a step" that happens due to injury or just long term workload.  Jacobs is really good, he's not transcendent where he is going to be good for 5+ years.  It's not even much of an insult to Jacobs to say that - it's very rare.  He's really good but he is not a super elite athlete who can lose a step and shrug it off going forward, it's incredibly rare to be that good and also a freak athlete.

He doesn't even have an all-purpose workload locked in yet but I will admit it's looking like he might get that this year.

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26 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

What happens to backs like Jacobs, admittedly anecdotally, is that they don't have enough juice to overcome the eventual "losing a step" that happens due to injury or just long term workload.  Jacobs is really good, he's not transcendent where he is going to be good for 5+ years.  It's not even much of an insult to Jacobs to say that - it's very rare.  He's really good but he is not a super elite athlete who can lose a step and shrug it off going forward, it's incredibly rare to be that good and also a freak athlete.

He doesn't even have an all-purpose workload locked in yet but I will admit it's looking like he might get that this year.

What happens to backs like Jacobs, admittedly anecdotally, is (*IF* they stay healthy) they go to the Hall of Fame.

Yes, that is hyperbole, but the point underlying remains. Literally the only part of Josh Jacobs that isn't exceptional is top-end speed. He has literally every other attribute you'd want in a back, in spades - burst, vision, shiftiness, size, hands, intellect, toughness, character, durability. Watch, listen, learn: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5SKBFffwcs.

And why can't Jacobs be good for 5+ years? He broke records as a rookie and is potentially in process of breaking more as a sophomore. You're moving the line you originally set. I hope you can see that. Not gonna jinx Jacobs to injury, tho, in highlighting your bias here. Anyone can get hurt. His style hopefully makes him a bit less prone than avg. He's a big back, but he's runs nothing like the Leg Blounts and Derrick Henrys. Honestly, right now, the guy he reminds me the most of is dare I say, LaDanian. If only we could be so lucky.

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Jacobs has everything EXCEPT top end speed (and elite receiving game ability is flashed but not proven).  LaDanien had both and was an absolute freak athlete.   Josh Jacobs doesn't sniff the athletic measurables of guys like Saquon and LaDanien.  Athletic measurables aren't everything of course and Jacobs is very good, but the elite hall of fame guys do have it all.  It's not impossible for him to be that rare elite long term RB, but without being a freak athlete it's a lot less likely. 

I'm sure I am biased in some way but it is not out of Fandom or hatred for the Raiders or Jacobs .  I have Jacobs in dynasty, I want him to do well.  

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7 hours ago, Chadstroma said:

Something about his posts really rubbed me the wrong way though. 

I believe that's exactly as was intended.

6 hours ago, Chadstroma said:

Kwiat sounds like he may miss a couple of weeks. 

Where did you hear that? Everything I read was that MRI was negative, and no updates on status since. That would be a big blow -- we were demonstrably worse with Kaptain K out (floating that nickname out there -- you like?).

Looks like we waived Dallin Leavitt to make room for Nevin Lawson -- so that's 7 corners in total.

A few other tidbits from the past weekend:

  1. Ritchie off to a solid start -- finished last year with the highest PFF grade of all our lineman, and ended Week 1 with the highest overall grade on the roster. Stay healthy and nasty (but not that kind of nasty), Ritchie.
  2. Carr's sneaky audibles.  
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34 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

 Athletic measurables aren't everything of course and Jacobs is very good, but the elite hall of fame guys do have it all. It's not impossible for him to be that rare elite long term RB, but without being a freak athlete it's a lot less likely. 

I was being obtuse and extreme in projecting a HOF bust for Jacobs. But your quote above is just flat out wrong. Majority of the names below aren't freak athletes (by NFL standards of their time). But they were all amazing football players. You don't have to be the former to be the latter.

Marcus Allen (RB) 1982-1997

Jerome Bettis (RB) 1993-2005

Jim Brown (FB) 1957-1965

Earl Campbell (RB) 1978-1985

Larry Csonka (FB) 1968-1979

Terrell Davis (RB) 1995-2001

Eric Dickerson (RB) 1983-1993

Tony Dorsett (RB) 1977-1988

Marshall Faulk (RB) 1994-2005

Frank Gifford (HB-FL) 1952-1960, 1962-1964

Franco Harris (RB) 1972-1984

Paul Hornung (HB) 1957-1962, 1964-1966

John Henry Johnson (FB) 1954-1966

Leroy Kelly (RB) 1964-1973

Floyd Little (RB) 1967-1975

Curtis Martin (RB) 1995-2005

Ollie Matson (HB) 1952, 1954-1966

Hugh McElhenny (HB) 1952-1964

Lenny Moore (HB) 1956-1967

Marion Motley (FB) 1946-1953, 1955

Walter Payton (RB) 1975-1987

Joe Perry (FB) 1948-1963

John Riggins (RB) 1971-1979, 1981-1985

Barry Sanders (RB) 1989-1998

Gale Sayers (HB) 1965-1971

O.J. Simpson (RB) 1969-1979

Emmitt Smith (RB) 1990-2004

Jim Taylor (FB) 1958-1967

Thurman Thomas (RB) 1988-2000

LaDainian Tomlinson (RB) 2001-2011

Charley Trippi (HB) 1947-1955

Doak Walker (HB) 1950-1955

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5 hours ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

I believe that's exactly as was intended.

Where did you hear that? Everything I read was that MRI was negative, and no updates on status since. That would be a big blow -- we were demonstrably worse with Kaptain K out (floating that nickname out there -- you like?).

Looks like we waived Dallin Leavitt to make room for Nevin Lawson -- so that's 7 corners in total.

A few other tidbits from the past weekend:

  1. Ritchie off to a solid start -- finished last year with the highest PFF grade of all our lineman, and ended Week 1 with the highest overall grade on the roster. Stay healthy and nasty (but not that kind of nasty), Ritchie.
  2. Carr's sneaky audibles.  

I can't remember where I saw it but it admittedly it wasn't definitive. Something along the lines of "the injury isn't as serious as feared and he is likely to play through it perhaps missing a week or two" kind of wording (not an actual quote) which even after digging into it was the most I could find. 

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7 hours ago, LawFitz said:

I was being obtuse and extreme in projecting a HOF bust for Jacobs. But your quote above is just flat out wrong. Majority of the names below aren't freak athletes (by NFL standards of their time). But they were all amazing football players. You don't have to be the former to be the latter.

Marcus Allen (RB) 1982-1997

Jerome Bettis (RB) 1993-2005

Jim Brown (FB) 1957-1965

Earl Campbell (RB) 1978-1985

Larry Csonka (FB) 1968-1979

Terrell Davis (RB) 1995-2001

Eric Dickerson (RB) 1983-1993

Tony Dorsett (RB) 1977-1988

Marshall Faulk (RB) 1994-2005

Frank Gifford (HB-FL) 1952-1960, 1962-1964

Franco Harris (RB) 1972-1984

Paul Hornung (HB) 1957-1962, 1964-1966

John Henry Johnson (FB) 1954-1966

Leroy Kelly (RB) 1964-1973

Floyd Little (RB) 1967-1975

Curtis Martin (RB) 1995-2005

Ollie Matson (HB) 1952, 1954-1966

Hugh McElhenny (HB) 1952-1964

Lenny Moore (HB) 1956-1967

Marion Motley (FB) 1946-1953, 1955

Walter Payton (RB) 1975-1987

Joe Perry (FB) 1948-1963

John Riggins (RB) 1971-1979, 1981-1985

Barry Sanders (RB) 1989-1998

Gale Sayers (HB) 1965-1971

O.J. Simpson (RB) 1969-1979

Emmitt Smith (RB) 1990-2004

Jim Taylor (FB) 1958-1967

Thurman Thomas (RB) 1988-2000

LaDainian Tomlinson (RB) 2001-2011

Charley Trippi (HB) 1947-1955

Doak Walker (HB) 1950-1955

The list is survivorship bias and you're mixing in freak athletes like LaDanian.

I see this has developed into "do you even watch football" and listing players from past eras so it's probably best to agree to disagree.

I actually agree that Jacobs is very very good and you don't have to be a freak athlete to be very very good.  All I am saying is that he lacks the traits that allow him to overcome the wear and tear he'll take along the way and his odds of a long career where he maintains elite status for 4-5 years are very low.  They are low for everyone, even the players that are BOTH very good at football and super elite athletes who can afford to lose a step and still look like an elite NFL running back.  If (when) Jacobs gets dinged up and saps his burst even a little he becomes a lot closer to David Montgomery than Nick Chubb (who are both very good football players as well).

Let's see how this Raiders season and Josh Jacobs' career plays out. Curtis Martin is a much more modest comp than LaDanien Tomlinson even though Martin isn't as big.  I think he could have a Curtis Martin career if things break right for him on the injury side.

Edited by kittenmittens
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2 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

All I am saying is that he lacks the traits that allow him to overcome the wear and tear he'll take along the way and his odds of a long career where he maintains elite status for 4-5 years are very low. 

That's not what you were saying last week. You've shifted your narrative from he's a 'fine' talent but not good enough to justify drafting in the first round to he won't stay healthy (based on little to zero reasonable rationale to support such an assertion). This new health/durability narrative is super convenient. Either he stays healthy and you continue to look very wrong or injury strikes and you come back with I told ya so's. Good on you for finding a viable corner to tuck into. Apologies if I am coming across as picking on you, but let's be clear as to what you've actually been saying. 

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1 hour ago, LawFitz said:

That's not what you were saying last week. You've shifted your narrative from he's a 'fine' talent but not good enough to justify drafting in the first round to he won't stay healthy (based on little to zero reasonable rationale to support such an assertion). This new health/durability narrative is super convenient. Either he stays healthy and you continue to look very wrong or injury strikes and you come back with I told ya so's. Good on you for finding a viable corner to tuck into. Apologies if I am coming across as picking on you, but let's be clear as to what you've actually been saying. 

Below is exactly what I said to be clear - and that's still what I'm saying.

Quote

Jacobs is "fine" but he's not an elite RB whose career lasts long enough for the Raiders to hit a winning window.  Also drafting RBs of Jacobs talent level (good but not Saquon or Zeke levels) in the first round is just bad roster construction.

I'm not saying "hes going to get hurt."  I am saying "all running backs who don't get hurt seriously still get dings that add up" and Jacobs won't last once they start to add up because his decent athleticism will become fringe athleticism.  I think I've been pretty clear about this but maybe I am not explaining it very well.    My point isn't and has never been Jacobs sucks, it's that almost nobody lasts long at an elite level.  Having elite athleticism makes it more likely.

I don't think I look very wrong.  Taking the position that Saquon Barkley, CMC and Zeke are better real life players than Jacobs is a very chalk take.  Let's post a poll in the forum and let's see what the community thinks on that?  

I don't feel like you're picking on me, I'm probably not explaining myself very well.  I appreciate the friendly debate.

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9 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

The list is survivorship bias and you're mixing in freak athletes like LaDanian.

I see this has developed into "do you even watch football" and listing players from past eras so it's probably best to agree to disagree.

I actually agree that Jacobs is very very good and you don't have to be a freak athlete to be very very good.  All I am saying is that he lacks the traits that allow him to overcome the wear and tear he'll take along the way and his odds of a long career where he maintains elite status for 4-5 years are very low.  They are low for everyone, even the players that are BOTH very good at football and super elite athletes who can afford to lose a step and still look like an elite NFL running back.  If (when) Jacobs gets dinged up and saps his burst even a little he becomes a lot closer to David Montgomery than Nick Chubb (who are both very good football players as well).

Let's see how this Raiders season and Josh Jacobs' career plays out. Curtis Martin is a much more modest comp than LaDanien Tomlinson even though Martin isn't as big.  I think he could have a Curtis Martin career if things break right for him on the injury side.

I don't get the injury worry. He isn't a small back and his style of play isn't one that he takes a ton of big hits. He has a power back size but is elusive. Sure, he doesn't have elite Jonathan Taylor speed but he has great burst. Most importantly to your point, he doesn't get squared up and knocked the hell out of very often. 

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4 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

Below is exactly what I said to be clear - and that's still what I'm saying.

I'm not saying "hes going to get hurt."  I am saying "all running backs who don't get hurt seriously still get dings that add up" and Jacobs won't last once they start to add up because his decent athleticism will become fringe athleticism.  I think I've been pretty clear about this but maybe I am not explaining it very well.    My point isn't and has never been Jacobs sucks, it's that almost nobody lasts long at an elite level.  Having elite athleticism makes it more likely.

I don't think I look very wrong.  Taking the position that Saquon Barkley, CMC and Zeke are better real life players than Jacobs is a very chalk take.  Let's post a poll in the forum and let's see what the community thinks on that?  

I don't feel like you're picking on me, I'm probably not explaining myself very well.  I appreciate the friendly debate.

If Barkley or Zeke get hurt then is it a waste of a 1st round pick but if Jacobs does it is?

Barkley taken 2nd overall. Zeke 4th overall. Jacobs 24th overall. That is certainly in line form talent level and where they were all taken in the draft. Talent wise, Jacobs will be in the discussion with these guys. Maybe not come out on top but he can run with those dogs for sure. 

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21 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

What happens to backs like Jacobs, admittedly anecdotally, is that they don't have enough juice to overcome the eventual "losing a step" that happens due to injury or just long term workload.  Jacobs is really good, he's not transcendent where he is going to be good for 5+ years.  It's not even much of an insult to Jacobs to say that - it's very rare.  He's really good but he is not a super elite athlete who can lose a step and shrug it off going forward, it's incredibly rare to be that good and also a freak athlete.

Lordy, this he's not going to be good for 5+ years really seems like a reach. I think he's got the makeup to be a very effective back even when he loses a step.

And one more thing to consider when judging whether he's going to be good more than than five years down the road: his college workload. Some studs carry the ball 250 times in a college season. Barry Sanders rushed the ball 344 times his final year. Eric Dickerson 487 times his final two seasons.  Earl Campbell 787 times in his entire career. Marcus Allen 932 times--800 in just his last two seasons!!! Of course, Marcus fell off a cliff after five years. Oh, wait. No, he didn't.

Some studs carry the ball 250 times in a college season. Josh Jacobs carried the ball 250 times HIS ENTIRE COLLEGE CAREER.

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Another thing no one has mentioned about last week.

Carlson actually looking strong and accurate. On a 54 yarder no less.

AFC ST'er of the week, even.

Here's to everyone continuing to raise their game.

Edited by Stompin' Tom Connors
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28 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Another thing no one has mentioned about last week.

Carlson actually looking strong and accurate. On a 54 yarder no less.

AFC ST'er of the week, even.

Here's to everyone continuing to raise their game.

I thought it was 56yd. Either way I swear it landed in the front row of the stands!

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4 hours ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Another thing no one has mentioned about last week.

Carlson actually looking strong and accurate. On a 54 yarder no less.

AFC ST'er of the week, even.

Here's to everyone continuing to raise their game.

Good point.  I was ready to move on from him last year.  Kickers are weird, tough to tell if they just hit a rough patch or if they are completely shot.  Hope he keeps it up.  

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I am really excited about Arnette, but wow he got completely roasted on this play...

https://twitter.com/BaldyNFL/status/1306681531482673154

I’m not sure anyone but him could say how much he slipped vs got out of position and tried to recover, but that’s a legit Welcome to the NFL Kid! Moment :)

Doesn’t get any easier for him Monday, but I feel like he will keep getting more comfortable. 

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15 minutes ago, Garrett said:

I am really excited about Arnette, but wow he got completely roasted on this play...

https://twitter.com/BaldyNFL/status/1306681531482673154

I’m not sure anyone but him could say how much he slipped vs got out of position and tried to recover, but that’s a legit Welcome to the NFL Kid! Moment :)

Doesn’t get any easier for him Monday, but I feel like he will keep getting more comfortable. 

I remember Woodson’s first NFL game (Chiefs).  He was burned repeatedly.   He turned out ok.    It has to be a big step going from the NCAA to the NFL.   These rookies are in a really tough spot this season since there were no preseason games.   You can’t fully judge players until their second season.  

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23 minutes ago, DocHolliday said:

I remember Woodson’s first NFL game (Chiefs).  He was burned repeatedly.   He turned out ok.    It has to be a big step going from the NCAA to the NFL.   These rookies are in a really tough spot this season since there were no preseason games.   You can’t fully judge players until their second season.  

I agree 100%. It’s all about how he reacts and grows from the experience. 

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Really good article in the Athletic by Ted Nguyen (who I love in terms of his analysis) about the Raiders in Week 1 and our offense going forward:

https://theathletic.com/2073377/2020/09/18/raiders-analysis-8-observations-from-week-1-and-implications-for-week-2/

I don't have a subscription, but this might have just tilted me to it -- love the Xs and Os breakdown. Posted below -- the pics in the article gave a lot of context, unfortunately, but the write-up is super informative and gave gametime marks if you have Game Pass or the game DVRd if you want to check it out.

A lot to like. Agreed on Morrow, he looked like trash. Surprised to see Nguyen liked what he saw from Key, I thought he looked mostly meh, but what do I know.

This did seem to allude Kaptain K is missing time, sadly. That's going to be huge -- Littleton looked solid but we definitely need Kwiat in there for us. 

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Raiders analysis: 8 observations from Week 1 and implications for Week 2

Without any preseason games, we had little idea about how the Raiders would look before their season opener in Carolina. How would rookie receivers Henry Ruggs III and Bryan Edwards fair against NFL cornerbacks? Could the two big free-agent linebackers Cory Littleton and Nick Kwiatkoski shore up the Raiders’ second level? Do the Raiders finally have a pass rush? Could the young secondary hold up? With Week 1 in the books, we have partial answers to these questions from a comeback win on the road against the Panthers. Here are eight observations from reviewing the coaches’ tape.

1. Run-pass options are going to be a big part of this offense

Last season, the Raiders were forced to go back to an old-school style of offense and feature their offensive line and running back Josh Jacobs. They saw a lot of stacked boxes. One offensive strategy to get defenders out of the box is to use run-pass options. Against the Panthers, Jon Gruden called a surprising number of RPOs.

11:10 mark of the 2nd Q, 1st & 10 on CAR 17

Here, the Raiders were in a gun bunch right formation. To the left, they had a mid-zone concept, which is a variant of outside zone. To the right, they had a bunch formation called. Right before the snap, they shifted the bunch so that tight end Darren Waller was at the point (on the line of scrimmage), while Hunter Renfrow lined up as the farthest inside receiver. They did this so that Waller was in a position to block and to make Renfrow run the bubble.

Derek Carr was responsible for making a pre-snap read and deciding to hand the ball off or throw the bubble. The Panthers defensive backs lined up too deep so Carr didn’t count them as part of his pre-snap read. Because the safety and cornerback weren’t part of the count, Carr saw that there was only one defender against his three receivers to the perimeter and decided to throw the ball.

Carr made the right decision and Renfrow easily picked up a gain of 11.

In this case, the Raiders had a numbers advantage because the Panthers lined up too deep but if defenses stack the box against the Raiders’ RPO concepts, they’ll also be outnumbered to the perimeter.

2. The defense will miss Nick Kwiatkoski

After signing with the Raiders, Kwiatkoski earned the green dot and was voted a captain. He began the Panthers game playing a little tentatively but got more comfortable as it went along. When he was playing fast, he made some plays against the run and had some impressive plays against Christian McCaffrey.

Luckily for the Raiders, his pectoral injury reportedly isn’t as bad as initially feared but he’ll miss some time. The Raiders’ run defense clearly struggled when he was out on Sunday. Nicholas Morrow took most of the snaps in relief of Kwiatkoski but Raekwon McMillan, whom the Raiders traded for right before the season, could see his snap totals increase on early downs against the Saints and their physical offensive line.

3. Kolton Miller was nearly flawless

The Raiders were widely criticized when they passed on safety Derwin James to draft Miller in 2018, but it looks like the Raiders might have made the right decision. James will be miss this season with a knee injury after missing 11 games last season with a foot injury, while Miller hasn’t missed a game while steadily improving each season. In Week 1, he looked like a Pro Bowler. He didn’t give up one pressure and looked dominant against every Panthers pass rusher he faced, including 2019 first-round pick Brian Burns.

7:18 mark of the third quarter, second-and-8

This play is evidence that the game has slowed down for him. It appears that he has a dual read on the defensive end and nickelback. Miller and Richie Incognito have to work in tandem to block both rushers. Miller initially blocked the defensive end to help Incognito because both players were aligned so far outside. He had two hands on the end but was aware of the nickel blitz.

Eventually, he passed off the end to Incognito and then stifled the nickel blitz. The pass rush didn’t get near Carr on the play.

Though Miller played well at times last season, he needed help in certain matchups. If he has progressed enough to be trusted in one-on-one situations consistently, it would be a huge boost for the Raiders offense because of the uncertainty at right tackle. Trent Brown and his backup Sam Young didn’t practice on Thursday and there’s a chance they don’t play on Monday night against the Saints. If Denzelle Good or Brandon Parker has to start, they’ll need help blocking defensive end Cameron Jordan and it’s a lot easier to focus on only helping one side.

4. Johnathan Abram was everywhere

Abram looked like everything the Raiders expected him to be when they drafted him in the first round last season. The physical safety was active and seemed to always be around the ball.

4:09 mark of the third quarter, second-and-7

For most of the game, Abram lined up in a two-deep alignment but he filled the alley hard. On this play, the Panthers tried to run a counter concept with a guard leading for McCaffrey outside.

Cornerback Trayvon Mullen did an excellent job of filling inside and diving underneath the pulling guard. Mullen forced McCaffrey to bounce wide and defensive end Maxx Crosby was there to make him go outside even wider. The defense did a good job spilling the ball out so that Abram had time to run support from his deep alignment.

Abram took a good angle and thumped McCaffrey at the line of scrimmage.

Abram played a little out of control at times and overran some plays because he’s so eager to hit, but he was disruptive. With more time on the field, he should learn to play with more patience. Saints coach Sean Payton will likely test the young safety with a heavy dose of play action.

5. Trayvon Mullen was excellent

Other than the touchdown to Robby Anderson that rookie Damon Arnette gave up, the Panthers didn’t test the Raiders cornerbacks much. Part of the reason was because of Mullen’s physical coverage on the outside. When he was in press, he rerouted and pushed around the Panthers receivers. Against D.J. Moore in the red zone, Mullen tightly covered a slant and broke up the pass.

Last season, Mullen was pressed into action when former Raider Gareon Conley was injured in Week 1 against the Broncos. He had to match up against Emmanuel Sanders and couldn’t cover him. Sanders is now with the Saints and Mullen will be tasked with covering him again. This rematch will be a good measuring stick for how much Mullen has really improved since his first NFL game.

Although Arnette won the starting spot opposite of Mullen in camp, it seems like it’s still open for competition. Without a preseason, the Raiders didn’t get to see their young corners perform in a game. Arnette played 48 snaps. Isaiah Johnson played 16 snaps and Keisean Nixon even got six snaps. It’s Arnette’s spot to lose and I don’t think he’s on a short leash, but it seems the Raiders are curious to see what they have in Johnson. They also got veteran Nevin Lawson back this week from his one-game suspension.

6. Jon Gruden drew up some nifty plays to get Henry Ruggs III going

Before Ruggs was injured late in the first half, he was a difference-maker for the Raiders offense. In two quarters he had 55 yards receiving and 11 yards rushing. He played the second half but wasn’t targeted and didn’t get a carry.

In college, he had some trouble against physical coverage. Gruden did a good job of keeping the defense from pressing him by putting him in motion, lining him up in stack alignments and short splits.

6:48 mark of the first quarter, first-and-10

On his biggest play of the day, Ruggs motioned to the slot on the opposite side of Waller. The Panthers were in quarters coverage and the Raiders had the perfect play call to attack it. In quarters, they doubled Waller with the corner and safety to his side. Because Ruggs was in the slot, he was matched up against safety Tre Boston. There aren’t many safeties that can run with Ruggs’ 4.27 speed when he has a free release.

Waller ran a dig and occupied both defensive backs to his side, leaving Boston one-on-one with Ruggs. Ruggs easily beat him across the field and Carr delivered a good pass. Ruggs was eventually pushed out of bounds at the 1-yard line.

Gruden also got Ruggs involved in the run game. In the second quarter, Ruggs got a handoff a jet sweep for a gain of 7 yards but if tight end Jason Witten got a better block on safety Jeremy Chinn, Ruggs looked like he may have had a 75-yard touchdown run. On run plays, the Raiders motioned Ruggs across the formation a lot to displace linebackers and open up lanes. However, most of the times he was in motion, the ball was snapped after Ruggs was already past the quarterback. After he is past the quarterback, the threat of Ruggs getting the handoff is no longer there. The timing could be tricky but if the Raiders snapped the ball a little earlier, jet motion could create a bigger advantage for the run game.

7. Arden Key was the Raiders’ best pass rusher against the Panthers

After reviewing the film, the Raiders’ pass rush in the first half wasn’t as bad as I thought. The problem was whenever one player had a nice rush, the rest of the rush was dominated, so Teddy Bridgewater had plenty of room to step up and escape the rush. The Raiders’ best edge rusher on Sunday was third-year defensive end Arden Key.

7:13 mark of the second quarter, third-and-6

Here, Key lined up against right tackle Taylor Moton. Moton punched first with his outside hand and Key quickly reacted by violently swiping it away. He displayed flexibility and bend by dipping underneath of Moton and running the arc.

Key beat the block but the rest of the line was stonewalled so Bridgewater had plenty of space in front of him and threw the ball in rhythm.

The Raiders also got some effective rushes by blitzing Littleton. Defensive tackle Mo Hurst also had some nice rushes and split a sack with Carl Nassib. Maliek Collins had one nice rush at the beginning of the game but disappeared for the rest of the day. The entire Raiders pass rush disappeared in the second half, which is worrisome. They’ll be playing a much better offensive line against the Saints and will need to be leaps and bounds better to rattle Drew Brees.

8. Hunter Renfrow is still the Raiders’ best third-down target

Renfrow had a pretty modest stat line — two catches for 21 yards — but he had a big impact on the game. He converted four first downs. including two on third down. He drew two pass interference penalties against former Raiders linebacker Tahir Whitehead and that wasn’t by accident. Gruden matched them up by design.

7:18 mark of the third quarter, second-and-8

In quarters, the Mike linebacker is usually responsible for the “final 3” receiver or the farthest inside receiver after the pattern distribution. In the play above, the Raiders lined up in empty with Renfrow lined up as the No. 3 receiver. The Raiders had slot fade concepts called on both sides so Renfrow was singled up against Whitehead on a “juke” route, which is an option route.

Quote

Renfrow had the option to curl up, break inside or break outside. Whitehead played him too heavy outside so Renfrow crossed his face. Whitehead knew he was beaten so he grabbed Renfrow as Carr was throwing the ball and was flagged. On the Raiders’ game-winning drive, the Raiders got Renfrow matched up on Whitehead with the same result.

Some people have made early comparisons of Renfrow to the Patriots’ Julian Edelman and interestingly enough, one of his most productive concepts over the years is running the juke route out of empty against inside linebackers.

In their first game, the Raiders offense looked like one of the most physical units in the league like it was like last season, but Ruggs and the new additions at receiver give them a different dynamic. The Saints have one of the best run defenses in the league, so the Raiders might not be able to hang their hat on the ground game. New Orleans is a heavy man-to-man team led by All-Pro corner Marshon Lattimore. I wouldn’t expect the Raiders outside receivers to beat them often but Waller and Jacobs could create mismatch problems for them inside and should get a lot of early-down targets.

Defensively, the Raiders will have less to worry about if All-Pro receiver Michael Thomas is out with his ankle injury. They could focus on stopping tight end Jared Cook and Alvin Kamara in the passing game. However, they absolutely need the pass rush to produce because even though Brees showed signs of aging against the Buccaneers in Week 1, if he has time, he can still carve up defenses. It’s going to take a spectacular effort to upset the Saints in their home opener.

 

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