What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Duo WRs (1 Viewer)

Shaunz33

Footballguy
There is almost always at least one pair of WRs from same team that are both in the top 12 (ie WR1) of fantasy scoring for the year (PPR/FFPC).

And while the trend didn’t exactly continue this year, it was close. It would have been Godwin/Evans if Evans played one more game than just 13.  Kupp/Woods was also close. 2010 and 2003 are the only years in the past 20 years that there were no pair of WRs even close to both being top 12. Last year there were actually 3: Brown/JuJu, Diggs/Thielen and Woods/Cooks(13).

An interesting side is that then typically the QB of the best duo outperforms fantasy projections and is a top fantasy QB.  Jameis this year, Big Ben (/ Goff) last year, Stafford in 2017 etc. Going into those seasons those guys were NOT projected to be top 6 QBs for the year. Marginal even QB1s. (in 2013 it was the combined Bears QBs due to injuries)

Of course if you projected 2019 to be Beckham/Landry with Mayfield, that wasn’t it. 

As we get get a little closer to 2020 season (after FAs, etc) we can talk about (a) who could be the best WR duo for the season? (b) could this mean their QB will out perform projections? and/or (c) would you follow your guess/projection and go with that WR/WR (or QB/WR) on your fantasy team (regular or best ball)? 

stats courtesy of FBG:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/myfbg/myviewstats.php?pos=wr&yr=2019&startwk=1&stopwk=17&profile=f

- Shaun Z

(Loonie Toonies)

 
As of now, Evans/Godwin and Diggs/Thielen would probably be the favorites for it. 

Agree above comments that Jones/Ridley and Lockett/Metcalf have potential. 

Also a long shot, depending on FA, maybe Cooper/Gallup. Though maybe tough to accomplish if you have a top 5 RB on the team. Only so many points to go around. I haven’t checked the stats history how often the duo teams also had a top (~5) RB that year. That may be a factor/consideration.

.....ok for now back to playoff contest lineup iterations  😆  

 
A lot of obvious choices here so far. Godwin and Evans are a good bet if TB resigns Winston. With a rookie qb itll be difficult to project their success. 

Gallup/Cooper mentioned above. I think that's a lock if Cooper stays

Parker/Unicorn is a great one. Not sure if a rookie QB can get them there

Diggs/Theilen is a good suggestion. I'd love that as a Diggs owner, but MIN is such a run first team... 

AJB/Davis I dont think happens... I'm finally off that Davis train, I dont see him top 12 

Lockett/Metcalf will be a good duo, but I don't see them both top 12. 

Of course not all of these can make it, and really we may see one or two wr dous in the top 12. IMO that's TB and DAL

 
Last edited by a moderator:
As of now, Evans/Godwin and Diggs/Thielen would probably be the favorites for it. 

Agree above comments that Jones/Ridley and Lockett/Metcalf have potential. 

Also a long shot, depending on FA, maybe Cooper/Gallup. Though maybe tough to accomplish if you have a top 5 RB on the team. Only so many points to go around. I haven’t checked the stats history how often the duo teams also had a top (~5) RB that year. That may be a factor/consideration.

.....ok for now back to playoff contest lineup iterations  😆  
That's pretty much my list

Obj and Landry certainly could get there if they stay together

Hill and Watkins / hardeman, but that's really hard if Kelce stays healthy

 
Golladay and Jones were ranked 6 and 17 in average pts per game, which is surprising given they used 3 qbs, including an undrafted and 6th round qbs for 8 games. They were value picks this year.

I think Jones will be back for the final year of a contract with a reasonable cap number (~9 mil). Jones was TD dependent, so I doubt if he ranks top 20 next year, even if Stafford comes back.  They won't be value picks in 2020.

 
Fine I’ll mention it if nobody else will.  Oakland with a rookie WR, whichever one they draft.  Carr loves throwing to Renfrow, add in Jeudy or Lamb there and boom, dark horse candidate. 

Or the Broncos with another rookie alongside Sutton.  

Both the Raiders and Broncos I think could support 2 top WRs with their current state of the team.  QBs who like to chuck it with above average run games to keep D’s honest.  

 
Fine I’ll mention it if nobody else will.  Oakland with a rookie WR, whichever one they draft.  Carr loves throwing to Renfrow, add in Jeudy or Lamb there and boom, dark horse candidate. 

Or the Broncos with another rookie alongside Sutton.  

Both the Raiders and Broncos I think could support 2 top WRs with their current state of the team.  QBs who like to chuck it with above average run games to keep D’s honest.  
You're forgetting Darren Waller at eight looks or so a game. That's a lot to go around to sustain WR1 and WR2. I followed the Raiders closely, as I had both Waller and Jacobs rostered about everywhere that mattered in some form or combo.

I think Renfrow coming on late in the season is huge, but will only eat into a true WR1 numbers. I'm not sure their offense can sustain two with Jacobs running the ball. 

But that's a good thought though.

As for me, I was going to say the standards, so I have nothing to add, only detract. :sadtrombone:

 
I hated when Renfrow started as I have Waller. Don't see Carr supporting two receivers.

 
I hated when Renfrow started as I have Waller. Don't see Carr supporting two receivers.
In one league I had Tyrell Williams, Josh Jacobs, and Darren Waller in my lineup for two or so weeks when Renfrow was hurt. The first week the team hit projections, the rest of the way, I figured, would be a heck of a slog. I had to end that. Indeed, Carr can't carry that much volume, but that speaks well for the Raiders next year. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Ok maybe we can get this topic going again. Although Evans/Godwin are now even more the favorites. I’d still say Jones/Ridley and Lockett/Metcalf are possibilities. 
The other aspect of this is the past stats show the respective QB ends up doing better than draft position. Though those 3 QBs are already top 10 ranked so not much room to be sleepers.
If Landry is healthy from the start I could see him and Odell having a shot at this and then, if so, Mayfield getting to QB 7/8 which would be much better than his current QB15-18 ADP. 

Of course this season, even if fully played, is probably going to wreck havoc on stats and be even more unpredictable than normal from players missing games. Will leave that for separate threads.

 
Looks like it will be Thielen/Jefferson this year, both in top 12 WRs for the year. With Cousins ending up a QB1 (~QB11 right now compared to ~QB25 in FFPC drafts). Will try to predict for 2021 later. 

 
Jefferson/Thielen and Metcalf/Lockett were top 12 WR duos last year. Wilson not a surprise as a top 6 QB but Cousins as a QB1 (11) was well above expectations / draft spot

For 2021 there are a lot of obvious top 12 duo candidates: the same 2 pairs from last year plus AJ/Julio, Cooper/Lamb, Pick 2 Steelers (though all 3 having good year will limit two in top 12), and Higgins/Chase. 

My sneaky candidate would be Carolina: Moore/Anderson with a resulting borderline top 12 (ie QB1) for Darnold. (History shows a QB of top 12 duo WRs well outperforms expectations, well unless already a top QB)

For now I am gonna just go with Dallas and Seattle, so no QB surprise there. 
 

Who do you think will be the top 12 duo WRs this year? And QB impact?

 
I think Jefferson and Thielen could be but it wouldnt surprise me if Thielen fell short of top 12  I think Jefferson outscores him.

I still expect Thielen to be good and Cousins to be a value again.

 
Rams might surprise us.
Yeah that’s a good one. Definitely belongs in that potential list. And that could help bring Stafford to a top 6-8 QB which he was each year 2015-2017 including having top 12 duo WRs in 2017 (Tate/Jones at 11&12). I think he’s being drafted around QB12 right now. 

 
Rams might surprise us.
The Rams have so many good WR now. I dont see this happening.

@Shaunz33 for top WR duos historically isn't there an element of the other weapons on the team besides these two being not so good?

In the case of the Rams I see them being able to spread the ball around too much to consider them.

Kelce and Hill are a top duo as well, just that Kelce is a TE.

I know its extremely rare for a team to have 3 top receivers, but it has happened with Peyton Manning before.

 
Biabreakable said:
@Shaunz33 for top WR duos historically isn't there an element of the other weapons on the team besides these two being not so good?

In the case of the Rams I see them being able to spread the ball around too much to consider them.

Kelce and Hill are a top duo as well, just that Kelce is a TE.

I know its extremely rare for a team to have 3 top receivers, but it has happened with Peyton Manning before.
@Biabreakable True that typically the WR duo team has not had a top 10 RB nor TE for that same year. Since 2001 there have been 31 occurrences of top 12 duo WRs (13&18 split by decade) and interesting the first decade there were none with a top 8 RB or TE. In the last 10 years about 1/3 of the teams had a top RB and less than 1/4 had a top TE. So based on that it may reduce probabilities for teams with a stud RB (or TE) to have duo WRs though Minnesota did it last year  

Notably only once has a team had it all- duo WRs with a top QB and top 10 RB and TE (2013 Broncos and was actually QB1, RB4 and TE4 along with the 2 top 12 WRs). 

Of course there is also WR depth to also consider. I think teams with strong WR3 (Dallas, Pitt, Cinn) make it tough for 2 to be top 12 unless 1 goes down with injury.

And one last interesting, not surprising, point is ever time the QB has been top 12 and usually top ~8ish.  (Only exception to top 12 QB was 2001 Brady at #21). Note a couple of the occurrences use the combined QBs for a team (eg injury and had split the year).  Also this top QB stat includes examples like Goff, Stafford, and Eli being ~QB6 the various years they had the duos. I’m sure they weren’t drafted like that (which is the insight you can use if you think a mid range QB could have a top duo)

 
starks said:
How has brown Jones not been mentioned since the bump? Probably THE best duo. 
Because they are going to run the ball a lot and may not have the volume for two top 12 WR's.  

 
Biabreakable said:
I would eat my hat if Chark and Shenault were top 12. I think Marvin Jones outperforms both of them.
Oof, Marvin Jones is DOA.

I'm surprised that Tampa isn't getting more love here.  Evans/Godwin could very easily both be top 12.  Nobody else on the team (all due respect to the ghost of Antonio Brown's sanity) screams fantasy monster to me.

 
In real life, AJB and Julio all day. In fantasy, the scheme won't allow it though. But all it takes is an injury to Henry for all things to change.

It hasn't happened yet, but today moving forward I like Ja'marr Chase and Tee Higgins. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Technically no top 12 duo WRs (from same team) for 2021. But many close ones. Only twice in 20+ years has there not been a top 12 WR duo (or duo that was really close, like a spot or two off). If they would have played a couple more games, Godwin and/or Higgins would have joined their teammate (Evans and Chase) in the top 12 but instead they only got in 14 games. DK and Lockett were 15 & 16. The closest duo was Keenan Allen and Mike Williams at 11 & 14, helping Herbert end up at QB3 vs his ADP ~QB8.

For 2022 I would guess Bengals and/or Chargers duos would be in the running/favorites to have two top 12 WRs. Broncos and Bills are definitely a possibility. I don’t like Allen Robinson so I think Rams are out. And injuries to start season will keep Bucs/Cowboys duos off the list. A long shot could be dolphins but is Tua/Miami really any good? Though I will say if his top two WRs both even get near top 12 or 15, Tua will be a real value based on his current ADP (~QB17). That’s been the big insights in this duo WR history: the respective QB’s value exceeding expectations/ADP,  sometimes significantly. 
 

Feel free to share your thoughts on most likely duo (and a long shot). 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
D.Adams and 3rd & Renfrow are going to be a handful for any defense 
Can Carr support 2 WR1's and a stud TE like Waller at the same time?  He did throw for 4800 last year, so the yardage can get there for all three.  FWIW, I think this year will be his first ever in the top 10.

 
Broncos and Bills are definitely a possibility.
If it’s the Bills, the FBG Gabe Davis fan club will be insufferable. And I say that hot just as a member, but as the president. :wub:  

I don’t like Allen Robinson so I think Rams are out.
I think they’re one of the most likely duos, TBH. It depends on whether they bring back OBJ, but it’s absolutely in the range of potential outcomes that Kupp/ARob each go 1000+ with double digit TDs and finish in the top 12. 

A long shot could be dolphins but is Tua/Miami really any good? Though I will say if his top two WRs both even get near top 12 or 15, Tua will be a real value based on his current ADP (~QB17).
They certainly have the talent at receiver to do it, but it’s difficult to imagine a Shanahan disciple HC airing it out like that. 

A dark horse might be the Vikings. JJ is a monster already, and Thielen could get it done, but if he were to go down early, I could see a scenario where KJO finishes top 12 as the WR2 in what’s expected to be a more vertical offense.

I also wouldn’t write off GB. Or the Bucs. The QB makes a big impact on a team’s receivers and love em or hate em, ARod & Brady are two of the best. 

 
Technically no top 12 duo WRs (from same team) for 2021. But many close ones
In my PPR leagues Godwin and Evans were both in top 12 in total points(I never use that last week of the season)

I've always been more of a per game average guy myself but understand why total points are cleaner for this discussion for a few reasons. You need a baseline of games played, so AB for instance who is top 12 in PPG, would not be included since he did not play enough games. Secondly did that the few game absence of one WR prop up the PPG of the healthy one to a point the healthy one would not have been top 12 without that few game boost?

Still I prefer total points just have to parse out some of the data and using PPG ,and removing someone like AB, I would list Bengals and Tampa as both having duo top 12 WR's. Higgins missed two games which did not elevate Chase.

 
I think they’re one of the most likely duos, TBH. It depends on whether they bring back OBJ, but it’s absolutely in the range of potential outcomes that Kupp/ARob each go 1000+ with double digit TDs and finish in the top 12. 
I concur.  😉

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top