barackdhouse
Footballguy
Schefter reporting that he tweaked his hamstring on his vertical jump but went forward with the 40 anyway. FWIW. And that he will run again at his pro day.
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RB Zack Moss, CIN (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I'm not too worried about it. It doesn't change what he did on the field, which includes things like elusiveness, vision, and pass catching. Nobody watched him and loved him for his speed. Fortunately the 40 time is within what you might call the reasonable 'threshold' - not a death sentence. Jacobs last year ran 4.64 at his pro day, still selected #24. Moss won't be a first rounder, but 2nd-3rd is very reasonable. Bold prediction: there will be one GM who loves PFF and takes their top RB (it's Moss) before we expect. 3rd RB off the board perhaps.
Edit to add: Le'Veon Bell ran 4.60, Arian Foster ran 4.69. Posted this because these are two comps made for Moss in this thread.
Edit to add: Le'Veon Bell ran 4.60, Arian Foster ran 4.69. Posted this because these are two comps made for Moss in this thread.
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TartanLion
Footballguy
In hindsight, whilst I appreciate and have been reading everyone’s opinions across these threads I may have somehow confused @travdogg and @menobrown posts in relation to Moss specifically ! Apologies !
@travdogg has your assessment changed at all in seeing him as your top RB ? Whilst him blazing a faster than expected 40 would never be a bad thing, I’m not overly concerned by a 4.65 given what his apparent strengths are. Let’s see what the pro day brings, and if this supposed strain did impact anything. Physically, he looked like specimen out there.Bucky Brooks was quick to point out that Moss’ 40 time didn’t bother him at all
@travdogg has your assessment changed at all in seeing him as your top RB ? Whilst him blazing a faster than expected 40 would never be a bad thing, I’m not overly concerned by a 4.65 given what his apparent strengths are. Let’s see what the pro day brings, and if this supposed strain did impact anything. Physically, he looked like specimen out there.Bucky Brooks was quick to point out that Moss’ 40 time didn’t bother him at all
I was expecting high 4.5 or low 4.6, so well i'd have liked to have seen a better time, its not that bad to me. I was more bothered by Akers poor shuttle time, and by CEH's 40.
He's still my RB1, and frankly, probably in his own tier, as I just can't get over Taylor's lack of receiving ability, even though I do think Taylor is a slightly better runner. My question is how many top RB's are there, that aren't good pass catchers. Chubb, Henry, and Carson are pretty much it, and Taylor is unlikely to end up in a situation like Tennessee or Seattle, unless the Titans lose Henry. I also don't think he's in Chubb's league as a runner, as in my opinion Chubb is the best runner in the NFL.
On the other side, Swift's lack of tackle breaking bugs me a little, and I worry he might end up being a Duke Johnson/Giovani Bernard type, that always leaves you wanting more as a runner.
Moss is my RB1 because he's the guy I simply have the fewest issues with. Speed is basically it, he's near the top of everything else, and at the top of tackle breaking. If I have the #1 pick though, I'm going Jeudy, and Lamb at #2.
Arizona practically followed PFF's board for every pick last year. They are also a strong candidate to take a RB, if Drake wants top-5 money. PFF compared him to Kareem Hunt for what that is worth. I don't think Moss is quite on those levels, but he certainly has a skill set that can succeed in the same way.
Good point about Jacobs, and most(myself included) thought he was a reach last year, and he proceeded to easily be the best RB in the class, and a top-10 NFL RB. Speed is a nice, but highly overrated part of playing RB. Its more of a bonus if a good player is fast, than a necessity.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Absolutely.
PFF is out there drooling over his evaded tackle rate just like they were Montgomery.
I don't know exactly what they consider an evaded tackle, but it seems like it doesn't factor in just running faster than the defense as much as it should.
Its better to not have to evade a tackle because you out ran it.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I think Moss is better than Montgomery, but Montgomery isn't bad at all. He had a decent rookie year,and likely will be better in year 2. I'd be ok with Montgomery as an RB2 right now.
Not to mention in most drafts Moss will go much later than Montgomery, who was going 1.1 in some drafts last year. If he'd been say, the 1.6, I think people would be pretty happy with him right now.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
1.54 10 yard split, which isn't bad. Most people would agree explosion is more important than long speed for running backs. Not concerned.
Agree it means more then 40 to me but please tell me where you are getting the 10 yard split info?
ETA just saw you post the splits in another thread. Thank you.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
This is a good point.
For one pff is combining at least two different skills with their elusiveness rating, the ability to make would be tacklers miss and their ability to break tackles and get yards after contact. These two things are not really the same ability, yet they lump them together in creating that stat.
Dalvin Cook was only 15th in their elusiveness rating last season. Not as good on a per touch basis as he was in 2018 according to them, although 2019 was clearly a better year for Cook than the previous one.
What they are missing with this is what you are talking about, the players ability to not give defenders a chance to tackle them in the first place, and in my view that is what Cook does so well, but you can't really quantify it. Its yards before contact and folks like FBO give most of that credit to the offensive line, not the RB.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Well said, that is the missing piece based on the way I have heard the PFF guys describe it.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The main reason is because of how they are defining their metric.
I believe there is a per play component to the elusiveness rating. So it has the problem of small sample size. The more instances of "elusiveness" in fewer games leads to a higher frequency per touch, or per game than a larger sample size will, almost always.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I remember Trent Richardson was rated really high in pff elusiveness rating.
About the only positive stat you could find for him at the time.
About the only positive stat you could find for him at the time.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
....and Ray Rice had one of the lower elusiveness ratings. I think the whole stat has always looked a bit wonky to me.Biabreakable said:
I mean, was it though? He was healthier, but his YPC was lower, and he had the advantage of a better offense(with Kubiak's influence) and a better o-line. I'm not saying he was better in 2018, but I don't think he was better in 2019, just healthier, and in a better offense. Its not something I'd give Cook credit for.Biabreakable said:
Full disclosure, I think Cook and Zeke are the 2 most overrated RB's in the NFL(now that everyone has finally come around on David Johnson) and they both benefit from scheme and play calling more than most other RB's. For the Vikings sake, I hope they don't pay Cook, especially if that causes them to let Harris leave, or possibly trade Diggs to make space.
As far as the elusive rating goes. I agree it doesn't account for players not needing to break tackles, but its also not the end all/be all of RB rating for PFF. Its merely a small part.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
It depends on how you compare them I guess.
Yards per carry is a stat that I think makes sense as a career metric, or at least 3 years of data that's most recent if that's available.
Cook has 450 or so Carrie's so far in his career, his YPC is 4.6 it was 4.5 last season where he had 250 attempts, a bit over 50% of his career carries.
Cook had 81 rushing yards per game in 2019 compared to 56 per game in 2018.
Cook also had more yards per target in 2019 than 2018 as well.
The offensive line wasnt much improved from 2018 really. The scheme was much better than what DeFlippo was doing. They found a great fit for Cook in Kubiak, that's what they wanted to do when they got Cook.
I dont agree with that. I think Elliot and Cook are in a top tier of RB.
As far as scheme and supporting cast I think it's fair to say Elliot has a better offensive line than Cook.
They seem intent on keeping Cook so a long term extension seems likely.
That may he bad business on the vikings part, just not worth giving RB big contracts as they are in the downslope of their careers, but it does seem that the Vikings want to sign him anyways.
Maybe there is some discount for the injury risk. It's that risk that causes Cook to need to get paid now.
All of this related to the CBA and how RB specifically are screwed by its structure.
Yes it's kind of like the ypc I think. The smaller the sample the larger effect a few big plays will have on the stat.
FWIW Cook was 6th in pff elusiveness rating in 2018 on 173 touches compared to 15th in 2019 on 303 touches.
I'm saying the volume has more to do with that difference than anything else.
I appreciate the the thorough response. I don't think we disagree too much here.
I agree with: 2019 being Cook's best season receiving, that Zeke has a better o-line than Cook, that the Vikings want to re-sign Cook.
I disagree with: Cook and Zeke as top-tier RB's, that RB's are screwed by most of their primes being on rookie deals.
I think Chubb), CMC, Barkley, and Kamara are the tier 1 RB's, and that is it. Then there are asterisk tier 1 guys, like Ekeler(best receiving weapon) or Hunt(off field issues) or Aaron Jones(durability) I'd have Zeke and Cook in tier 2 with guys like Henry, Mixon, Jacobs, and Bell(on any other team)then you have your tier 2 asterisk guys like Carson(mostly 1 dimensional+durability) or Duke(part time player) or Guice(super small sample size)
I also think RB's get paid about what they should. Its the least important position other than K or P. Even those tier 1 guys, don't really move the needle too much. If any position is underpaid(not saying any is) it'd be CB, as nickel defense is basically base defense as the average team has 5+ DB's on the field over 60% of the snaps.
This reminds me of something about Montgomery that I thought was put on full display last year. Someone, I can't recall who, wrote it about him in his predraft scouting report and I recall posting it in a pre-draft thread last year it was ridiculed. I think how it was phrased was he lacks creativity in the second level. 100% on the mark.
He's actually a good scouting lesson. Do you ever hear scouts or read scout write ups and they say things like he knows how to set up defenders on the second or third level? Well Montgomery, and Trent Richardson was another, are great examples of RB's who lack(ed) that trait.
It puzzled me for awhile because I could not figure out what was missing with Montgomery last season or really why he had such a low YPC in college. He truly has some of the best 3-4 yard runs going, that's not even a joke or a knock on him. He truly is elusive near the line of scrimmage or on that first move or two and then it's like he's got nothing.
I don't think it's a coincidence that he and Trent rated so well in PFF's elusive ranking. Yes Montgomery does a great job making that first defender miss but then it's usually a few yard run because he don't know how to set up that move to lead to the next move.
And I'm serious when I say he's a good scouting lesson. It's something I'm more keen to look for now, or as best as I can. (Swift is awesome by the way at this, CEH is pretty good and he's got a super thin looking lower body but so is Darrynton Evans)
barackdhouse
Footballguy
As a Bears fan my eyes are clouded. I remember those discussions and I was high on Montgomery, having acquired him everywhere I could. I even obsessively made offers to one owner in particular, who wouldn't budge. I offered a future 1st and DJ Moore at one point and he turned it down. But after one season I started selling him and probably wouldn't pay a 2nd for him right now (ok maybe but IDK). I still can't make heads or tails of whether Monty is any good or not, because the Bears offense (and franchise) is in such disarray that it is hard to tell. When someone says he struggled at the 2nd level, I can't help but ask "when the F did he ever get to the 2nd level?" Their run game was shockingly predictable last year, and he was facing ridiculous sets. He was still able to break tackles and make guys miss and as you said, he has some of the best 3-4 yard runs out there. But I adamantly don't think the lack of longer runs had anything to do with lack of creativity on his part but rather the defense just doing it's job. If you're going to do something at the 2nd level you have to get there in a relatively timely fashion. If you're having to dodge and sidestep and juke just to get those first 2 or 3 yards, by nature the defense is going to be closing down after that. I don't think it's his fault that he was getting bottled up. That line and offense were terrible for him.
All that to say basically I am not a buyer due to the overall Bears ineptitude, but that otherwise I am still uncertain as to his talent and therefore his future. It's entirely possible I am undervaluing him. One thing I will say is he definitely seems to be the #1 there and will continue to get volume. I just have zero faith in their playcalling, O line, or QB play. Miller and Robinson are decent. They could use a new TE weapon (looking at you Eric Ebron).
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
You know, maybe a different advanced statistic that could be useful would be something that measures how many seconds it takes for the RB to get to the line of scrimmage, to the 2nd level, to the outside, to wherever the gap is, etc. I mean none of these plays are designed to take long to develop. Run plays are generally always meant to be fast hitting. I wonder if there is any correlation between the time it takes to get from snap to LOS and success in terms of yards gained.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Also worth noting these same things were being said about Singletary last year. Is he better at the 2nd level than Monty? Did Buffalo set him up for success better than Chicago? I guess the draft will tell us what we need to know about Moss.
I would describe this second level talk another way. Some RB's play the game like chess. They have the god given instincts that when they make a move they are often setting up their next move. Montgomery is playing checkers.
Personally, I rank them: Moss>Montgomery>Singletary, though I'd put them all in the same tier.
Singletary benefited a lot from Josh Allen's threat as a runner. Buffalo is a much more favorable situation than Chicago, I agree. Both NFL wise and fantasy wise. Maybe if Trubisky is replaced that will change, but until then, Singletary will likely outproduce Montgomery, even if he isn't actually a better RB.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
You could be right. I don't see that, though. I mean I get what you're saying about this. There is a fluidity from one move to the next that allows guys to string moves together. I'm just not ready to say it's a problem for Montgomery.
rockaction
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
He doesn't even look as good as Joique Bell, if I'm being candid. Perhaps my words will come back to haunt me, but I see Moss plodding away to 2.5 YPC in the NFL.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Marshawn Lynch ran a 4.46, according to Google. That's not even in the same proximity as over 4.6.
I don't even need to click the link; it's a sloppy and lazy comparison.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Moss isn't Montgomery any more than he is Lynch. As mentioned by @menobrown above, Monty has some wiggle but uses it unproductively, reacting to defenders without a greater purpose. I don't get the same vibe from Moss. His best successfully comp in my opinion is LeVeon Bell. Don't take that wrong way though.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I posited Bell as a comp to football, specifically the running back position. Perhaps running around a few orange cones not so much.
Zach Moss private workout
With his pro day canceled, Utah RB Zack Moss had a private workout today in which he was electronically timed at 4.52 in the 40. Had run an official 4.65 at the Combine.
With his pro day canceled, Utah RB Zack Moss had a private workout today in which he was electronically timed at 4.52 in the 40. Had run an official 4.65 at the Combine.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
He said he tweaked his hamstring during the vertical jump portion of the 2020 NFL Combine,
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Both aren't electronically timed I don't believe. Aren't private workouts for the 40 handled by a stopwatch, which seems to always favor the runner.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Or...
It's hard to tell though. If it means anything, he looks more like a 4.65 when he plays football.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I take draft capital doesn't matter? His improved 40 puts him that rb 3-6 range this year.
