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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Zack Moss, Bills


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6 minutes ago, Boston said:

If Fournette gets traded Jax goes right to the top of the list as there is literally no other competition there.

Very true but it also  takes away a likely landing spot already listed 

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@Milkman you should do infomercials. How you make a guy with less than 1000 combined yards and 4 TDs sound like the second coming is amazing!

Depends on what one means by fine. Moss has shown some flashes this year, but has underwhelmed for the most part compared to what many expected. I wonder if he'll ever be more than a decent complement

That is how I meant it. I'm a huge Moss fan. He's the best runner in the class in my opinion. He isn't for everybody, as he's very unproven(and perhaps unable) as a pass catcher. He's also not a guy w

4 minutes ago, Wooters said:

Because, like I said, he's being illogical.  He's watched a few youtube videos and has his mind made up.  Watch him change his turn when Moss lands in a good spot.  I'd much rather have Moss over CEH and it isn't even close.

Don’t speak about me like you know what I’ve watched and like you know my thoughts if he lands in a good spot.  If he lands in a good spot that will guarantee a player I like moves closer to me being able to draft him.

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10 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Don’t speak about me like you know what I’ve watched and like you know my thoughts if he lands in a good spot.  If he lands in a good spot that will guarantee a player I like moves closer to me being able to draft him.

Yeah but what if he goes to Kansas City? Maybe the next Kareem Hunt.

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5 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Yeah but what if he goes to Kansas City? Maybe the next Kareem Hunt.

I assure you that wouldn’t change one word of what I said.  Besides, he wouldn’t beat out Damian Williams.  At least not for at least two years he wouldn’t.  The Chiefs brass really like Williams and they have good reason to.  He s looked good last year.

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9 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

I assure you that wouldn’t change one word of what I said.  Besides, he wouldn’t beat out Damian Williams.  At least not for at least two years he wouldn’t.  The Chiefs brass really like Williams and they have good reason to.  He s looked good last year.

Damien Williams didn’t look all that good last year - outside of the SuperBowl (which is obviously a huge stage) and I’m not so sure how much KC really loves him. The contract they offered him was under $2MM a year. Williams had a few big games to close out 2018 with fresh legs and as the non-focal point of the defense. He was mostly injured and ineffective in 2019 but everyone remembers his MVP worthy SuperBowl performance.

He’s solid but easily replaceable. Admittedly KC doesn’t need to go out of their way to replace him since they already showed they can win with him though.

Edited by Dr. Octopus
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6 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

He looks sooo slow on film 

I know he timed slow but I didn’t find he looked slow on tape or the few games I saw live. He got caught behind by cornerbacks a few times but sure they’re faster. He looked quick through the holes and outran some guys.

I think the combine really soured people on what looks to me to be a pretty talented runner, who can also be useful out of the backfield. His situation will surely come into play but I can see him being a very solid RB at the next level.

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

He looks sooo slow on film 

CEH ran a 4.60, compares to 4.65 for Zack Moss, pretty close. Yet, everybody over in his thread has called him quick, while everybody in this thread calls Moss slow. Possibly due to an optical illusion where our brains, for some reason, mistakenly will think a smaller object is moving faster than a larger one when they're actually moving at the same speed. 

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1 hour ago, cloppbeast said:

CEH ran a 4.60, compares to 4.65 for Zack Moss, pretty close. Yet, everybody over in his thread has called him quick, while everybody in this thread calls Moss slow. Possibly due to an optical illusion where our brains, for some reason, mistakenly will think a smaller object is moving faster than a larger one when they're actually moving at the same speed. 

Quick isn’t the same as fast tho

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2 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Quick isn’t the same as fast tho

He's neither quick or fast.  He does have good yards after contact however.  I read somewhere he doesn't always see the holes the way he should, or bounces it away from open holes and leaves yards on the field.  Is this true?

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11 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

I didn't want to argue about semantics, just pointing out something about the error of human perception.

Oh I get that but CEH had some burst in the vertical drill and the ability to juke a player who is in front of you isn’t the same as beating players in a race. I’m not particularly enamored with either guy. But I know what you mean about not trusting your eyes.

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5 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Oh I get that but CEH had some burst in the vertical drill and the ability to juke a player who is in front of you isn’t the same as beating players in a race. I’m not particularly enamored with either guy. 

I'm not hating on CEH either. I noticed nobody has questioned his speed over in his thread, but many have said Moss looks slow, notably your above post. They're the same speed, minus .05 sec.

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24 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

I'm not hating on CEH either. I noticed nobody has questioned his speed over in his thread, but many have said Moss looks slow, notably your above post. They're the same speed, minus .05 sec.

Interesting. I absolutely question CEH. Maybe even more than Moss since he’s small and slow.

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5 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I know he timed slow but I didn’t find he looked slow on tape or the few games I saw live. He got caught behind by cornerbacks a few times but sure they’re faster. He looked quick through the holes and outran some guys.

I think the combine really soured people on what looks to me to be a pretty talented runner, who can also be useful out of the backfield. His situation will surely come into play but I can see him being a very solid RB at the next level.

:goodposting:

Moss is still in the RB1 conversation in my opinion. Really the entire top-6 is going to be landing spot dependent to me, there is very little separating any of them, just different skill sets.

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6 hours ago, travdogg said:

:goodposting:

Moss is still in the RB1 conversation in my opinion. Really the entire top-6 is going to be landing spot dependent to me, there is very little separating any of them, just different skill sets.

Some are more equal than others.

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9 hours ago, BINGBING said:

He will not be remotely in the conversation very soon.

Yeah this thread looks like the losing politician's party on election night. 

Moss stands to be drafted pretty late. I wouldn't consider taking him until mid or late round 2 personally. 

I don't even think he will be the 6th RB drafted... I'll say 7th or 8th. AJ Dillon will go before him IMO

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39 minutes ago, Johnny B. Goode said:

Yeah this thread looks like the losing politician's party on election night. 

Moss stands to be drafted pretty late. I wouldn't consider taking him until mid or late round 2 personally. 

I don't even think he will be the 6th RB drafted... I'll say 7th or 8th. AJ Dillon will go before him IMO

Possible, but Dillon is not going to be an option for some teams. He's a hammer and will only be drafted by teams that value a hammer - and need/want one. Moss may be backup caliber, but his skills are a fit for most teams. I think both of them could go sometime later on day 2, but are more likely to be early day 3 picks.

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8 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

Possible, but Dillon is not going to be an option for some teams. He's a hammer and will only be drafted by teams that value a hammer - and need/want one. Moss may be backup caliber, but his skills are a fit for most teams. I think both of them could go sometime later on day 2, but are more likely to be early day 3 picks.

I think David Montgomery should be a good recent comp for draft status based on a lot of things. But there's lot more good running backs in this draft which might muck things up for Moss. 3rd-4th range seems right to me.

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2 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

I think David Montgomery should be a good recent comp for draft status based on a lot of things. But there's lot more good running backs in this draft which might muck things up for Moss. 3rd-4th range seems right to me.

Seems topical

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27 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I really don't understand how anyone can watch him play and not think that at worst he could be a solid back that produces if he sees volume - but has the upside to be a very good back in the right situation.

I don't understand how anyone can be extremely pessimistic nor can I understand how anyone can be overly optimistic about his prospects. How this player elicits any sort of emotional response leaves me scratching my head. He's going to be drafted as an all purpose backup year one. Should the guy in front of him on the depth chart gets dinged he makes for an appealing plug-n-play. But even if a hypothetical cameo goes well I think it's unlikely he's ever handed the keys to the ground game in May. 

That has value with enough draft capital pumped up behind it. But I also think the current poll running on the 2.1 pick is crazy. No matter how great of a situation he goes to and how poor of a situation others go to that profile is not worth that pick.

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28 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

I don't understand how anyone can be extremely pessimistic nor can I understand how anyone can be overly optimistic about his prospects. How this player elicits any sort of emotional response leaves me scratching my head. He's going to be drafted as an all purpose backup year one. Should the guy in front of him on the depth chart gets dinged he makes for an appealing plug-n-play. But even if a hypothetical cameo goes well I think it's unlikely he's ever handed the keys to the ground game in May. 

That has value with enough draft capital pumped up behind it. But I also think the current poll running on the 2.1 pick is crazy. No matter how great of a situation he goes to and how poor of a situation others go to that profile is not worth that pick.

What if there’s a good chance he goes to Detroit to form a committee with a young back that can’t stay healthy?

I’m far from “excited” about him but I do see the possibility of him being a feature back heading into 2021 and him doing well if it’s a solid offense.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I really don't understand how anyone can watch him play and not think that at worst he could be a solid back that produces if he sees volume - but has the upside to be a very good back in the right situation.

Almost any back can be productive if he sees volume. The question is whether he is good enough to force his way onto the field even if there are no injuries. I don’t think he is. I’d rather Javon Leake as an all purpose back.

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26 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

What if there’s a good chance he goes to Detroit to form a committee with a young back that can’t stay healthy?

I’m far from “excited” about him but I do see the possibility of him being a feature back heading into 2021 and him doing well if it’s a solid offense.

No matter what happens over the next 370-some days I do not expect that time period to end with him as the lead back. Best case - Quinn/Patty don't get canned, Kerryon gets hurt again but not hurt enough for them to replace him, Moss has a productive cameo, and they don't bring in someone else to compete with the duo. That isn't too appealing - and I think that's the best case.

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36 minutes ago, Nero said:

Almost any back can be productive if he sees volume. The question is whether he is good enough to force his way onto the field even if there are no injuries. I don’t think he is. I’d rather Javon Leake as an all purpose back.

That is pretty damn bold. I think Leake has about a 30% chance of even being drafted.

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Bills selected Utah RB Zack Moss with the No. 86 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Moss (5’9/223) was a three-time 1,000-yard rusher at Utah, departing as the university’s all-time leading rusher and scorer. Moss posted PFF’s third-highest broken tackle per carry rate over the last six seasons on his way to 1,416 rushing yards and 15 ground scores as a senior. He chipped in 28-388-2 as a receiver. All this coming off a knee operation the year prior. When healthy, Moss has quality contact balance and packs a punch between the tackles. Think Kareem Hunt, but Moss' injury history makes him a boom-or-bust prospect. Moss did not quiet the injury concerns at the NFL Combine, where he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.65 seconds. Moss could initially feature in short-yardage situations, and should immediately each touches behind Devin Singletary.

Apr 24, 2020, 10:58 PM ET

 

 

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Will Zack Moss Stifle Devin Singletary's Fantasy Football Production in 2020?

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With the 86th pick in the third round, the Buffalo Bills landed running back Zack Moss out of Utah. Bills' 2019 draft pick Devin Singletaryappeared poised for a breakout role, but Moss now adds to a crowded backfield in Buffalo which also includes T.J. Yeldon.

Moss led the Pac-12 in rushing in 2019 but saw his draft stock take a perceived hit after running a disappointing 4.65 in the 40-yard dash at the NFL combine. 

How He Wins

Despite his poor testing numbers at the combine, Moss is more than just a downhill, between-the-tackles runner. In 2019, Moss averaged 6.8 yards per attempt when running outside the tackles, according to Sports Info Solutions. Those outside-the-tackles attempts accounted for over half his carries, as demonstrated by this chart from CFB Film Room:

CFB Film Room @CFBFilmRoom

Utah's Zack Moss could hear his name called in the NFL draft today. Despite disappointing numbers at the combine, Moss proved his explosive ability running outside the tackles in 2019.

https://twitter.com/cfbfilmroom/status/1253726286888960000?s=21 (Twitter link with an infographic)

While Moss is more explosive than you might expect, he also has the power you would anticipate from a 223-pound runner. According to Sports Info Solutions, Moss had 22 rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line last season and scored on 10 of those carries. He also converted 64 percent of his short-yardage attempts. 

Further adding to Moss' value is his ability to contribute in the passing game, where he averaged 8.5 yards per target on 81 career targets. 

What to Expect in Buffalo

In 2019, Frank Gore played the role of the physical, downhill runner in Buffalo. According to Sports Info Solutions, 43 percent of Gore's attempts were between the tackles. Buffalo likely views Moss as a replacement for Gore in that role. As previously mentioned, Moss is a well-rounded runner, but he did have success between the tackles and should be able to fill that role for the Bills. 

Moss will also likely take over for Gore as the goal line back in Buffalo, giving him some potential fantasy value. Gore led the Bills with 11 rushing attempts inside the opponent's five-yard line last season. However, Josh Allen rushing prowess cuts into that role -- Allen had five touchdowns on five attempts inside the five-yard line in 2019. 

While Moss looks like a good fit for this role in Buffalo, unfortunately it doesn't give him much of a fantasy ceiling. Gore played in all 16 games in 2019 and still only finished as the 50th-ranked running back in PPR scoring. Moss will likely enter the 2020 as a handcuff for Singletary in re-draft leagues and won't have much added value in dynasty leagues due to the presence of Singletary. 

JJ Zachariason projects Moss for a rushing line of 160 carries, 657 yards, and 4.5 touchdowns in 2020.

 

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Interesting landing spot. It’s looking like a RBBC with Singletary starting off as the lead back - I’m guessing - but Moss having a chance to carve out a bigger role band surpass him. I think Moss just may be the better all around back.

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I'm surprised to see this from you... I thought you were one pumping up Singletary as a potential workhorse. I could be mistaken. Says a lot about how you see Moss if that is the case. 

I don’t think so, but maybe. I do like Singletary and I wouldn’t say he can’t handle a full workload I just don’t think the Bills want him too. I traded him away a few weeks ago because I anticipated they would draft another back (and they almost traded for Gordon right after).

Anyway my last post has more to do with what I think about Moss than Singletary. I thought he was one of the more underrated backs in the class and I’m impressed with his “film” and when I saw him during the season.

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7 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

IMO Buffalo was a perfect landing spot and I would upgrade him slightly based on landing there. Not on my draft radar right now though mostly due to my pick locations

It’s a good spot for Moss and the Bills want to run.

 

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16 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I'm surprised to see this from you... I thought you were one pumping up Singletary as a potential workhorse. I could be mistaken. Says a lot about how you see Moss if that is the case. 

I looked at the Singletary thread (Just to see if I was crazy) and I only posted like three times and it was before the season started. I was actually downplaying him a little despite taking him in the second of a rookie draft. So you confused me with another poster I guess.

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This is the Michael Scott win-win-win. We knew the Bills were going to get a RB this offseason to split the load with Singletary. We knew Moss wasn't going to be a guy teams would draft with the plan of featuring. The Bills seem like a great situation for RBs. Singletary and Moss are the right combo of good enough but not that good to keep both of them within range of their fantasy ceilings. 

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20 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

I traded up to nab him at 3.02 in our rookie draft.  I think Buffalo was a good spot for him.  I see a relatively solid rookie year coming from him, something in the ballpark of 650 yards and 6-7 tds.  

3.2 is a gigantic steal. I took him at 2.1 of a rookie draft, I did need a RB, but I think he should have been a 1st rounder. 

I get a Giovani Bernard vibe from Devin Singletary, and could certainly see Moss taking the lead role. 

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3 hours ago, travdogg said:

3.2 is a gigantic steal. I took him at 2.1 of a rookie draft, I did need a RB, but I think he should have been a 1st rounder. 

I get a Giovani Bernard vibe from Devin Singletary, and could certainly see Moss taking the lead role. 

Think Moss is a nice long shot play for OROY and I'm hoping to get 50-1

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