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RB Zack Moss, CIN (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
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King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Soulfly3
Footballguy
ha, nah i sold the pick for amari cooper pre-draft
but yes, he wouldve been there by a country mile.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Good value to get Cooper. Yes, I was just teasing a bit. Moss went undrafted in our two round Dyno and I was just going back trying to get some info on him. How do you feel about his outlook now?
Soulfly3
Footballguy
not a spot anyone wanted him to land in. butchered his value. buuuuutchered
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
You must be higher on Singletary than myself. I don’t see it as a terrible spot. Buffalo had the 7th highest percentage of run plays last year and I do not see that changing anytime soon with Allen at the helm. I think there is plenty of opportunity for Moss to get quality touches in that offense.
Singletary is a fine player--nothing more
He is small and slow yet elusive enough to make up for it
Moss is bigger and stronger, yet also slow. I don't think he has quite the burst Singletary does, but does have the elusiveness. He also grades out analytically as a better receiver than Singletary did in college
Provided the Bills don't sign someone else:
I see this as a 1-1 punch in one of the better offenses in the league with plenty of rushing volume and a commitment to running the ball
Singletary is fairly priced but Moss is really underpriced right now IMO. Both have their ceilings limited though unless the other gets hurt
I think by mid way through the year it is a 50-50 split--both high end FLEX plays possibly low RB2s with high RB2/low RB1 outlooks if the other goes down
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Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
I just aquired Moss in my dynasty league for what I feel like was pretty cheap, and should be better in the long term so I agree that Moss' value is probably low right now.
Milkman
Footballguy
I don't see 50/50 here. Teams don't take electric players off the field. Singletary was nothing short of electric 2nd half of last year. They rode him to the playoffs frankly.
I think where people might be misreading this situation is the draft capital the Bill's spent on Moss. They like Moss and he was probably the best player on their board in a position of need. The need isn't to replace Singletary though. The need is to back him up because they had nothing there really.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
The Bills have said numerous times that he is going to have the Frank Gore role from last year which was, if I recall, 166 carries (although Singletary was hurt for a bit) and lots of goal line carries that Gore was not able to do anything with. I own Moss, not Singletary. I don't think Moss is just a backup. But I do think upside can be there in the form of those goal line carries if he can covert like Gore couldn't.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I see Buffalo as a very high volume rushing offense and don't see Singletary as anything close to a workhorse back
And it's not just draft capital (which is equal to Singletary's)...
The Bills were connected to RBs all draft season
I don't think he is there to replace Singletary; I think he is there to join in a committee with him
I said 50/50 because I believe Moss is better than 80 year old Gore
BradtheAg
Footballguy
I was really surprised to see that Moss wasn't assigned any value in Hindery's June or July trade value chart articles. This places him behind Justice Hill, Deejay Dallas, Lamical Perine, Devonta Freeman, Carlos Hyde in the July article. I find his valuations to usually be pretty strong but I can't say I agree with that at all.
Milkman
Footballguy
Just don't see a rookie RB, that imo isn't special, pushing a RB that showed he is special off the field. He can be better than Gore all he wants he has to be better than Singletary to push him off the field that much. It's really a long shot that Moss is that good. So I'm going to bet on Singletary and if Moss comes in and plays as good or better than Singletary I'll consider it like a game of poker where I made the right call but still lost the hand.
PFF just pointed out... Devin Singletary (Bills) emerged as a reliable three-down back as a rookie and played at least 65% of the offense's snaps in every game in which he wasn't either injured or just returning from a layoff.
Milkman
Footballguy
Thinking about it more all Singletary has to do is continue to do what he's already done. The vision and instincts he's shown aren't going away. He does that or even has a small drop in efficiency and he's not coming off the field.
Moss has to have so many things go right to get any meaningful playing time this year and beyond.
He has to be better or at least as good as Singletary was last year. Either by Singletary regressing or Moss himself being a rare talent.
He has to come in and be an incredibly fast learner with no training camp....learning
The plays
Pass protection
Audibles
Moss has to get used to the 16 game NFL season and not hit a wall.
He has to adjust to the speed of the NFL game.
Singletary has already done all that and was incredibly successful for the last 8 games of the season doing it.
I don't know how anybody thinks Moss is a favorite here. I mean I guess if you think Singletary is a JAG and Moss is special then you could project a 50/50 split later in the season but no offense if you studied Singletary's play last year and think he's a JAG I have to question how you came to that conclusion.
Moss has to have so many things go right to get any meaningful playing time this year and beyond.
He has to be better or at least as good as Singletary was last year. Either by Singletary regressing or Moss himself being a rare talent.
He has to come in and be an incredibly fast learner with no training camp....learning
The plays
Pass protection
Audibles
Moss has to get used to the 16 game NFL season and not hit a wall.
He has to adjust to the speed of the NFL game.
Singletary has already done all that and was incredibly successful for the last 8 games of the season doing it.
I don't know how anybody thinks Moss is a favorite here. I mean I guess if you think Singletary is a JAG and Moss is special then you could project a 50/50 split later in the season but no offense if you studied Singletary's play last year and think he's a JAG I have to question how you came to that conclusion.
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If you consider them equal talents it is not hard to see a 50-50 split, considering Singletary does not have workhorse measurables, size or particularly high draft capital.
I consider them both good not great players and neither a guy that is anywhere close to someone I want shouldering 70% of a high volume rushing attack.
If Moss was a 4th round pick I'd agree with you, but he was their 2nd pick of the draft chosen in the same round as Singletary a year ago
The camps thing is more significant for WRs. Not nearly as steep a learning curve for RBs
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Milkman
Footballguy
Yeah I don't see them as equals but I understand that you do. I guess that's where we differ. I didn't like Singletary coming out of last years draft. I hated his physical profile and his lack of athleticism (I think you do too) but then I saw him play. What he is good at he's not just good at.....he's special at it. Moss would have to be special in my mind to push him off the field. With what he showed last year he would be a 2nd round pick or even sneak into to 1st. He has Barry Sanders level vision and instincts imo.
Anyway I'll just leave it at that and stop talking about Singletary in the Moss thread. Cheers!
Anyway I'll just leave it at that and stop talking about Singletary in the Moss thread. Cheers!
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
In theory Moss should be better than a 35 year old Frank Gore though so those touches could become a little closer.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think you assess things starting from very extreme positions and stick on those margins instead of moving towards a more centered approach
People don't need to think Singletary is a JAG or Moss is special to see a coaching staff that has leaned on RBBCs historically continuing to do so. Singletary looked very good last season and did show to be a play-maker but I'm not seeing the "elite" talent you did. He has very good vision and balance but he's not particularly fast or powerful (better power than you'd expect from his size though). Moss has many of the same traits that makes Singletary effective in a bigger and stronger package. I'm not saying Moss is the better player though yet. It's not that hard to imagine he will be though.
I think it's a 60-40 type split in Singletary's favor by season's end, perhaps 70-30 early, because as you imply rookies will be at a disadvantage due to this Covid-19 off-season. This is a run heavy offense though so there's room for both backs to be productive and it's hard to imagine Moss not being in on goal-line packages. Ironically Singletary's build would make it look like he's have the inside track to be a third down back but Moss is likey already the better blocker and he is probably the better back catching passes out of the backfield as well.
I don't see this situation as clear cut at all. What I do see is an offense that could lead the NFL in rushing when you also add Josh Allen to the mix.
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bostonfred
Footballguy
He had 1105 total yards in 13 games played counting his 138 yard playoff game.
That's an average of 85 yards per game.
He averaged 5.1 yards per carry, caught 75 percent of his targets, averaged 8 yards per catch and 4 catches per game.
He had 661 rushing and 212 receiving in his final 9 games, again, counting his 138 total yards in the playoff loss.
That's an average of 97 yards per games those final 9 games.
It seems like using regular season totals could be misleading, since "under 1000 combined yards" implies he averaged fewer than 63 total yards per game.
But whenever I hear that someone's final 9 games were good, I wonder if it was just fresh legs. But his first 4 games of the season he was electric ,with 20 rushes for 172 yards. He also had 9 catches for 58 yards.
He missed 4 games in the middle of that. In the two games before the injury he had 15 touches for 165 yards. In the two games after he had 14 touches for 65 yards and the team indicated that he was still recovering. His first game back from injury was the worst of his season with 7 rushes for 26 yards. It seems likely that having his worst game of the season in his first game back from injury against the early season dolphins team that went 0-7 to start was injury related, but you can be the judge. His second game back after the injury was a much more respectable 3 for 19 rushing plus 4 for 30 receiving. The next game he had 20 for 95 plus 3 for 45 receiving.
He proceeded to take over the second half of the season and was a huge part of a rare buffalo playoff run.
What are you seeing that doesnt look good? Is there anything besides the touchdowns? Do you think Buffalo wants Allen to be their goal line back, or do you think they will let their running backs have more opportunities?
Variance happens, especially with touchdowns. Reminder that Todd Gurley had just 6 total touchdowns his sophomore season.
There are specific reasons to believe that his touchdown potential is higher going into this year
- the quarterback scored 9 rushing touchdowns and is unlikely to repeat this
- Buffalo appears to be a contender
- Singletary is likely to be the day 1 starter
- the veteran back who took away goal line rushes is gone
- buffalo has a trong o line and commitment to the run
- there were several notable "unlucky" plays from last year where Singletary broke a big play and got tackled near the goal line
The list of reasons to think Singletary's td potential will remain low are
- it was low last year
- there's a new rookie who might get goal line Carrie's
Is there something else I'm missing that limits his future touchdown upside? Or is it just that he didn't score many touchdowns in 2019?
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
@bostonfred I was really more commenting on Milkman's hyperbole than I was about Singletary's 2020 chances of success.
Be that as it may, I just think that DS's physical profile fits more as a "complimentary" back. That used to be a more derogatory term than it is today. I think that NFL teams are finally getting smart about how much wear and tear occurs at the RB position. So when they get a good talent like Singletary, they want to extend what they get in both the current season and the player's career. He's not very big at 5'7"/203lbs, so expecting him to have a Zeke-type workload is not reasonable. If they did give him 20+ touches per game, he'd be worn down by the time playoffs come around.
To that end, they are splitting carries more and more. I've said it many times around here but the idea of a "three down workhorse" back is obsolete in the NFL. So is the idea that a "complimentary" back is a "third down" back. I think a three headed monster of Allen/Singletary/Moss is a great idea. How that is divided, I have no idea.
But expecting Singletary to be a "primary" back seems like wishful thinking to me - regardless of how talented he may be.
Be that as it may, I just think that DS's physical profile fits more as a "complimentary" back. That used to be a more derogatory term than it is today. I think that NFL teams are finally getting smart about how much wear and tear occurs at the RB position. So when they get a good talent like Singletary, they want to extend what they get in both the current season and the player's career. He's not very big at 5'7"/203lbs, so expecting him to have a Zeke-type workload is not reasonable. If they did give him 20+ touches per game, he'd be worn down by the time playoffs come around.
To that end, they are splitting carries more and more. I've said it many times around here but the idea of a "three down workhorse" back is obsolete in the NFL. So is the idea that a "complimentary" back is a "third down" back. I think a three headed monster of Allen/Singletary/Moss is a great idea. How that is divided, I have no idea.
But expecting Singletary to be a "primary" back seems like wishful thinking to me - regardless of how talented he may be.
jm192
Footballguy
I'm not a big guy Moss guy, but I certainly don't love Singletary either.
Singletary is a talented guy. He's on a team that loves to run. How do you not love the guy?
I don't see him being a HUGE volume guy. I think 225-240 rushes is reasonable. That's adding 75 to last year's total, and is 14-15 a game basically. I don't think Moss is a huge threat to take the job. I just think he caps the upside--as does Allen. They'll keep Singletary from being a 20 touch/game back. Which probably isnt' where Buffalo wants him anyways.
Assuming a small dip in efficiency--conservatively 225 carries for 1080 seems fine. But what about the TD's? Moss may snipe a couple even if he isn't the goal line back. Allen is always a threat to steal TD's. I worry that you're only looking at 5-6 TD's for Singletary.
Furthermore--Allen isn't exactly Phillip Rivers. I don't see the RB's getting a major uptick in the passing game. With Diggs in town, Allen has even more incentive to ignore the check down and look for the home run. I don't see Singletary taking a mega jump in the passing game. 200-250 yards on 25-30 catches? Maybe he finds his way into the endzone a time or two--but I don't think we're looking at more than 6-7 Total TD's. I don't think we're looking at a ton of receptions.
All of that said--what do we expect for Moss? Assuming Singletary takes some of Gore's touches--there's maybe 100-125 rushes for Moss. Maybe he gets in some goal line packages, but a lot of those TD's are going to be "stolen" by Allen. I guess if you're getting him in the double digit rounds--he has a clear path to touches and better upside should Singletary go down. Still, I've got Singletary in the low-mid 20's. I don't see Moss jumping way above that even if Singletary vanishes into thin air.
Dynasty wise--it's murky. I can see Singletary being a guy for the next 3-5 years. I can see Buffalo doing something completely different in a year or two.
Singletary is a talented guy. He's on a team that loves to run. How do you not love the guy?
I don't see him being a HUGE volume guy. I think 225-240 rushes is reasonable. That's adding 75 to last year's total, and is 14-15 a game basically. I don't think Moss is a huge threat to take the job. I just think he caps the upside--as does Allen. They'll keep Singletary from being a 20 touch/game back. Which probably isnt' where Buffalo wants him anyways.
Assuming a small dip in efficiency--conservatively 225 carries for 1080 seems fine. But what about the TD's? Moss may snipe a couple even if he isn't the goal line back. Allen is always a threat to steal TD's. I worry that you're only looking at 5-6 TD's for Singletary.
Furthermore--Allen isn't exactly Phillip Rivers. I don't see the RB's getting a major uptick in the passing game. With Diggs in town, Allen has even more incentive to ignore the check down and look for the home run. I don't see Singletary taking a mega jump in the passing game. 200-250 yards on 25-30 catches? Maybe he finds his way into the endzone a time or two--but I don't think we're looking at more than 6-7 Total TD's. I don't think we're looking at a ton of receptions.
All of that said--what do we expect for Moss? Assuming Singletary takes some of Gore's touches--there's maybe 100-125 rushes for Moss. Maybe he gets in some goal line packages, but a lot of those TD's are going to be "stolen" by Allen. I guess if you're getting him in the double digit rounds--he has a clear path to touches and better upside should Singletary go down. Still, I've got Singletary in the low-mid 20's. I don't see Moss jumping way above that even if Singletary vanishes into thin air.
Dynasty wise--it's murky. I can see Singletary being a guy for the next 3-5 years. I can see Buffalo doing something completely different in a year or two.
Milkman
Footballguy
I like this but think he'll get more receptions than that. I anticipate him being the Bill's best option on offense and they want to get him the ball in space. So I see his target basement being 60ish with a much higher ceiling. I'd be shocked if he had less than 40 rec this season.
I mean look what the Bills did in the biggest game they have played in years. 7 targets and Singletary delivered like he always has to this point.
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
This is sound logic, but I'm not following your general thought process. I remember you talking about Aaron Jones losing his job after the Packers showed how they felt about him by getting AJ Dillon. Wouldn't that also apply to the Bills taking Moss?
zamboni
Footballguy
A bit different situation though, as Jones is more proven than Singletary at this juncture.
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
The bills have Singletary cheap for 3 more years. Jones is a free agent next year.
The bills have said they see moss in the gore role. The packers may see Dillon as the replacement.
Milkman
Footballguy
The difference for me is I like what I saw with Singletary and I'm not super impressed with Zach Moss. Aaron Jones doesn't impress me and I like AJ Dillion. Plus Aaron Jones is going to want a big contract next year. The Packers seem to be getting ready for life after Jones.cloppbeast said:
That's why I feel basically the opposite in both these situations. The play on the field will decide these situations in large part too. With Singletary exploding onto the scene this year imo.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I take on a much more empirical approach. Your or my assessment of a situation has no bearing on the outcome. As much as I like Moss, I have to agree with your logic above about his fantasy prospects. Not great are the odds he's better or comparable to Singletary, who is proven pretty good and already established on the team. Even in the best case, Moss forces a timeshare.
Minus the fact Aaron Jones is a soon to be FA, I still say this reasoning applies to AJ Dillon also.
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
