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Dynasty (2021) WR Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals


JohnnyU

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21 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Of all the things I love about Chase long speed wasn't one of them.  I had him WR1 also.  You can't trust these times anymore than you can trust Josh Gordon growing your pot.

I might give Gordon the edge on this one. I'm going to assume home cooking is an equal phenomenon for everyone. I know that isn't the case but we're never going to reliably demonstrate otherwise and pretty much have to assume as such. We have no real choice but to take the numbers as they are. What to do with them is another question. For me, when one prospect runs 4.39 and another 4.5, regardless of the nature of the kitchen, I'm calling the one faster than the other. And falls on the outlier realm of the bell curve. Which is the "special" territory when combined with all the other tests and traits.

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I'm getting more and more nervous that he won't be there at 1.03 for me.  Cincy would be an awesome landing spot. Kinda hoping the Chargers make move up for him like Atlanta did with Julio, pairing him with Herbert would be very interesting.    

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1 hour ago, barackdhouse said:

I might give Gordon the edge on this one. I'm going to assume home cooking is an equal phenomenon for everyone. I know that isn't the case but we're never going to reliably demonstrate otherwise and pretty much have to assume as such. We have no real choice but to take the numbers as they are. What to do with them is another question. For me, when one prospect runs 4.39 and another 4.5, regardless of the nature of the kitchen, I'm calling the one faster than the other. And falls on the outlier realm of the bell curve. Which is the "special" territory when combined with all the other tests and traits.

Doug Farrar, who I respect, is among the naysayers of the 4.38 (Faust, I think, linked to it). But Farrar posted that his vert and broad were incredible, giving him the explosion that he needs. Hard to fudge vert and broad numbers.

I'd link but I already closed out the article.

Edited by rockaction
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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

Doug Farrar, who I respect, is among the naysayers of the 4.38 (Faust, I think, linked to it). But Chase posted that his vert and broad were incredible, giving him the explosion that he needs. Hard to fudge vert and broad numbers.

I'd link but I already closed out the article.

Yeah 23 reps is 23 reps. I haven't and won't be moving him up or down. Except he is a little higher within his own tier that he already occupied by himself. I'm not into parsing timing nuances. I think that's a waste of time. No pun intended. I *do* appreciate the metrics like burst score and freak scores and some of the things you've been writing about. He is an outlier. And he has the traits. And he will be drafted high. Only possible downgrade that could come now is some sort of crowded depth chart NFL situation. 

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Posted (edited)

For me at 1.3 it's starting to look like either Chase, Pitts, or Williams.  I'm pretty sure Harris goes #1, so the big question for me is #2.  This is a TE premium league, so who knows, maybe Pitts goes #2.  If that happens it comes down to Williams and Chase at 3 and I need RBs.  Wow, big decision.  If Harris goes 1 and Williams goes 2, then it's a hard decision between Pitts and Chase.  If ETN goes 2, then it's a triple dog dare decision between Pitts, Chase and Williams.  I suppose that is a problem lots would like to have. 

Edited by JohnnyU
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6 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Yeah 23 reps is 23 reps. I haven't and won't be moving him up or down. Except he is a little higher within his own tier that he already occupied by himself. I'm not into parsing timing nuances. I think that's a waste of time. No pun intended. I *do* appreciate the metrics like burst score and freak scores and some of the things you've been writing about. He is an outlier. And he has the traits. And he will be drafted high. Only possible downgrade that could come now is some sort of crowded depth chart NFL situation. 

Oh, he's number one in my book if he ran a 4.47 today. I'm also not into parsing it that finely. You can't this year.

Thanks for the metrics compliment. There might be something to be said for refinements to the argument about forty times. I've heard -- I forget who it was -- at the NFL Network statistics dept. mention that a 4.52 is really the cutoff for excellence when it comes to receivers, for the most part. In addition, here is some new and pioneering stuff from people who are good at it, unlike me. Chase Stuart of Football Perspective has been posting numbers about forty times and yards receiving that are interesting.

http://www.footballperspective.com/are-40-yard-dash-times-correlated-with-success-for-wide-receivers/#more-48540

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2 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

For me at 1.3 it's starting to look like either Chase, Pitts, or Williams.  I'm pretty sure Harris goes #1, so the big question for me is #2.  This is a TE premium league, so who knows, maybe Pitts goes #2.  If that happens it comes down to Williams and Chase at 3 and I need RBs.  Wow, but decision.  If Harris goes 1 and Williams goes 2, then it's a hard decision between Pitts and Chase.  If ETN goes 2, then it's a triple dog dare decision between Pitts, Chase and Williams.

I think I'll be pleased with my 1.04 pick.

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LSU WR Ja'Marr Chase recorded a vertical leap of 41 inches and a broad jump of 11 feet during Wednesday's pro day.

As PFF noted on Twitter, those marks are comparable to what DK Metcalf and Julio Jones did at their respective combines. Well then. Throw in an unofficial 40-yard dash time of 4.38 seconds and you've got quite the package. On Tuesday, Ohio State QB Justin Fields and Alabama QB Mac Jones had dueling pro days, providing a touch of drama (as it were) that wouldn't have existed at the combine. It was Chase and Florida TE Kyle Pitts facing off from distance on Wednesday. Both crushed it. Come the draft proper, both players are probable top-10 selections.

SOURCE: PFF on Twitter

Mar 31, 2021, 1:43 PM ET

 

 

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2 hours ago, rockaction said:

Doug Farrar, who I respect, is among the naysayers of the 4.38 (Faust, I think, linked to it). But Farrar posted that his vert and broad were incredible, giving him the explosion that he needs. Hard to fudge vert and broad numbers.

I'd link but I already closed out the article.

JaMarr Chase's 40 time is amazing, but his other pro day results matter more

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Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Notre Dame, Wake Forest pro days: Kyle Pitts, Ja'Marr Chase post eye-popping 40s

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The 2020 opt-out is one of this draft class' truly elite prospects, and he didn't disappoint on Wednesday, showcasing his rare skill set during an impressive all-around workout that was highlighted by a swift 4.38 40-yard dash. Chase also posted an eye-opening number in the vertical leap -- 41 inches, second-best at the LSU pro day behind DB JaCoby Stevens (42 inches) -- as well as an 11-0 broad jump, 7.00 three-cone drill and 3.98 short shuttle.

Chase (6-0 3/8, 201 pounds) didn't run a second 40, and why would he? At 4.38, he's paired elite speed with a spectacular library of game tape from his 2019 season as Joe Burrow's top target.

"Look, I can try to pretend like some of this stuff is hard, but this one is not difficult: Just watch the game tape, first of all, watch what he does there. He's just completely dominant," Jeremiah said on NFL Network's Path to the Draft Pro Day Special. "He does it with speed, with physicality and with phenomenal hands to attack the football. He's a great route-runner."

 

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Ja'Marr Chase vs NFL CBs in 2019 (AJ Terrell, Trevon Diggs, CJ Henderson, Noah Igbinoghene and Patrick Surtain II):

37 tgts 26 rec (13 were a 15+ yd gain) 487 yards 6 TDs (outside of Chase, the 5 CBs combined gave up 3 TDs in 2019) Chase was only 19 years old that year

thas whassup, son

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Pro Football Network's Tony Pauline graded LSU WR Ja'Marr Chase as his fourth-best receiving prospect since 2003.

The three names that Pauline graded higher during their respective draft seasons were Larry Fitzgerald (check), Calvin Johnson (check) and Roy Williams (can't win 'em all). Chase won't quite be able to make it into the top-three selections at the end of the month -- those are all going to quarterbacks barring a shocker --  but from pick No. 4 (owned by the Falcons) onward Chase will be in play. We don't expect him to get out of the top-10. Again, barring draft crazines.

SOURCE: Pro Football Network

Apr 16, 2021, 1:40 PM ET

 

 

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Football Morning in America's Peter King relays that the "drumbeat is loud" for the Cincinnati Bengals to select LSU WR Ja'Marr Chase with the No. 5 pick.

While King is hearing a lot of buzz around a Joe Burrow-Ja'Marr Chase reunion, that is not the path that he would personally take if he were in charge, here. Rather, the plugged-in football writer would prefer not just that Cincinnati draft Oregon T Penei Sewell at No. 5, but also that they spend their second-round pick (No. 38) on a guard. King thinks it would be wise for the Bengals to wait out wide receiver until later in the draft, in order to build some protection for Joe Burrow. We're with King on this one. Recall that Burrow and Chase painted their beautiful pictures in 2019 behind the best offensive line in college football. The easiest way to wreck a young quarterback is simply not to protect them. No reason to overthink this one -- Sewell-to-Cincinnati simply makes too much sense, as fun as it would be for Chase and Burrow to reunite.

SOURCE: Football Morning in America

Apr 19, 2021, 1:29 PM ET

 

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3 hours ago, Faust said:

Football Morning in America's Peter King relays that the "drumbeat is loud" for the Cincinnati Bengals to select LSU WR Ja'Marr Chase with the No. 5 pick.

While King is hearing a lot of buzz around a Joe Burrow-Ja'Marr Chase reunion, that is not the path that he would personally take if he were in charge, here. Rather, the plugged-in football writer would prefer not just that Cincinnati draft Oregon T Penei Sewell at No. 5, but also that they spend their second-round pick (No. 38) on a guard. King thinks it would be wise for the Bengals to wait out wide receiver until later in the draft, in order to build some protection for Joe Burrow. We're with King on this one. Recall that Burrow and Chase painted their beautiful pictures in 2019 behind the best offensive line in college football. The easiest way to wreck a young quarterback is simply not to protect them. No reason to overthink this one -- Sewell-to-Cincinnati simply makes too much sense, as fun as it would be for Chase and Burrow to reunite.

SOURCE: Football Morning in America

Is Sewell a dominate offensive lineman?  If yes, then I agree, but if not, then they should take either Chase or Pitts.  Having said that, if the Colts had built their OL earlier, perhaps their QB right now would be Andrew Luck.

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2021 NFL Draft: Ja'Marr Chase, Kyle Pitts headline Next Gen Stats' can't-miss prospects

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Ja'Marr Chase LSU WR - 21 years old 

Production Score: 89

Athleticism Score: 99

OVERALL DRAFT SCORE: 99

PRO BOWL PROBABILITY: 24%

Who will be the first non-quarterback selected in the 2021 NFL Draft? It very well might come down to Kyle Pitts vs. Ja'Marr Chase -- and the numbers support the hype. Driven by elite athleticism and record-breaking statistics, Chase enters the draft with the highest probability of making a Pro Bowl within his first three seasons (24%) of any wide receiver over the last four draft classes. Among 52 wide receivers invited to this year's combine, Chase posted top-three numbers at LSU's pro day in the 40-yard dash (4.34), broad jump (11 feet even), vertical jump (41 inches) and short shuttle (3.99), making him the first wide receiver (invited to the combine) to break four seconds in the short shuttle since Amari Cooper did it in 2015 (3.98 seconds). The 2019 Biletnikoff Award winner -- the award is given to the nation's top wide receiver -- led the FBS in receiving yards (1,780) and receiving touchdowns (20) as a true sophomore in a receiving corps that also featured eventual first-round pick and rookie Pro Bowler Justin Jefferson. Despite opting out of the 2020 season to prepare for the draft -- which did affect his production score -- Chase grades out as one of the most complete wide receivers to enter the NFL in some time.

 

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Posted (edited)

The cool thing about dynasty leagues is that players like this can fall to 3 or 4 in start 1qb leagues, because teams will always value RBs more than WRs.  In this draft if you're sitting at 3 or 4 you might get the best player in the draft.

Edited by JohnnyU
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On 4/19/2021 at 11:03 AM, JohnnyU said:

I think he should go 1.1 over the 3 RBs.  I'm convinced of that fact as of today.  

 

On 4/19/2021 at 4:28 PM, King of the Jungle said:

100% agree and I think he is alone in tier 1.

I've had him alone in tier 1 by himself for a while now. I may add Pitts there. 

And I will probably take a RB anyway because they're that valuable to me. Which more or less proves your point:

2 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

The cool thing about dynasty leagues is that players like this can fall to 3 or 4 in start 1qb leagues, because teams will always value RBs more than WRs.  In this draft if you're sitting at 3 or 4 you might get the best player in the draft.

Thing is, on *almost* every roster of mine I already have multiple difference makers at WR, and young ones with the upside to get there. It isn't that I don't want the tier 1 player over the RBs who I am admitting I have ranked lower, it's that I *must* acquire RBs whereas I really truly can fade WR. Until a little later in the draft where I typically have multiple picks and there are a few WR options that I like dramatically better than the RBs in those ranges. And even then I might reach for more RBs because I can't cross the street in this FF landscape without tripping over a WR that is worth starting. They're everywhere. I foresee a lot of trading those picks for 2022 or vets or IDK what. 

A lot depends on how big the gap is between tiers and I don't think it is that big between Chase and the RBs but I do think it is there. I think the gap is bigger later on so it would be more of a reach then.

My own counterpoint might be that if I take the better player and end up heavy at WR and thin at RB then I can flip one or more of my WRs for a different RB. That is true but it gets much more complicated than just taking one or more RBs in the draft. Going shopping for a RB, even with a ton of capital and assets to use, isn't as simple as just picking a player you like off the shelf and making a purchase. And I think now is the worst time that I can ever remember to sell WRs. 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, barackdhouse said:

 

I've had him alone in tier 1 by himself for a while now. I may add Pitts there. 

And I will probably take a RB anyway because they're that valuable to me. 

 

I am in the same boat.  Chase is my #1 and I have the 1.01 pick on my rebuild.  The problem:  the volume of high quality WR far exceeds the quality of elite RBs.  Supply & Demand at it's simplist form. 

The "BPA" is not always what works.... 

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4 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

The cool thing about dynasty leagues is that players like this can fall to 3 or 4 in start 1qb leagues, because teams will always value RBs more than WRs.  In this draft if you're sitting at 3 or 4 you might get the best player in the draft.

This is exactly the situation I'm in and I'm hoping people fall in love with ETN, Harris, and Williams. Then, voila! Chase in my lap.

Edited by rockaction
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54 minutes ago, rockaction said:

This is exactly the situation I'm in and I'm hoping people fall in love with ETN, Harris, and Williams. Then, voila! Chase in my lap.

I'll paddle the left side of that boat.  Sitting with the 1.03 and just hoping it goes Harris/ETN in front of me.  If Chase is gone my backup plan is to trade down, if I can't make it work then Pitts it is. 

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On 3/31/2021 at 2:52 PM, JohnnyU said:

For me at 1.3 it's starting to look like either Chase, Pitts, or Williams.  I'm pretty sure Harris goes #1, so the big question for me is #2.  This is a TE premium league, so who knows, maybe Pitts goes #2.  If that happens it comes down to Williams and Chase at 3 and I need RBs.  Wow, big decision.  If Harris goes 1 and Williams goes 2, then it's a hard decision between Pitts and Chase.  If ETN goes 2, then it's a triple dog dare decision between Pitts, Chase and Williams.  I suppose that is a problem lots would like to have. 

I have 1.03 and 1.04 in a Zealots Field PPR and while it would be nice to have one of Harris or Etienne available, I'm starting to wonder if BOTH won't be there.  The hype (not saying it's not justified) for Chase and Pitts is unreal.

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4 minutes ago, Spike said:

I have 1.03 and 1.04 in a Zealots Field PPR and while it would be nice to have one of Harris or Etienne available, I'm starting to wonder if BOTH won't be there.  The hype (not saying it's not justified) for Chase and Pitts is unreal.

That really could happen. The hype is indeed crazy, and somebody might bite on Pitts. I'm personally hoping for a scenario where Pitts creeps into the top three (I have four and five in a Zealots PPR) but that's just me.

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18 hours ago, Birdie048 said:

The "BPA" is not always what works.... 

It isn't, but at the top of the draft it is. Positional value matters, but not if the talent disparity is that great. As the gap in talent narrows that's when BPA matters less.

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9 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

It isn't, but at the top of the draft it is. Positional value matters, but not if the talent disparity is that great. As the gap in talent narrows that's when BPA matters less.

I definitely agree with this.  Trouble is, there are about 9 players that would be considered top tier talent.  Even if you filter off 2 or 3 of them it is still a hard decision in the first 6 picks.  I'm guessing landing spots will clear up some of this and separate some of these players.

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14 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I definitely agree with this.  Trouble is, there are about 9 players that would be considered top tier talent.  Even if you filter off 2 or 3 of them it is still a hard decision in the first 6 picks.  I'm guessing landing spots will clear up some of this and separate some of these players.

I wouldn't call that 'trouble.' If that's the assessment then I'd call that a great thing. If one has multiple players rated similarly then that's when positional value and team needs can steer decision making. 

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21 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

I wouldn't call that 'trouble.' If that's the assessment then I'd call that a great thing. If one has multiple players rated similarly then that's when positional value and team needs can steer decision making. 

"trouble" was more of a figure of speech.  Hard decision is the better choice of words.

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Chad Forbes @NFLDraftBites

Nitpicking season. Does LSU WR Ja'Marr Chase's lack of length concern anybody? 

30 3/4" Arms & 74 7/8" wing span. 

Amari Cooper's wingspan 76.25"

Chase as a prospect might be a more physical version of Amari with a little less route running quickness in / out of breaks.

https://twitter.com/nfldraftbites/status/1384999607420211203?s=21

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Speaking with The Athletic's Bruce Feldman, one anonymous NFL QB coach said that LSU WR Ja'Marr Chase is "like a faster Anquan Boldin."

"I think it’s not close among these receivers. Chase is way better than the rest of them, and it’s a good class," the coach said before forwarding his Boldin comp for the LSU standout. Feldman, himself, passes along that several sources told him they would have selected Chase as the first receiver in last spring's draft. Which, given the deep, deep nature of the 2020 class, is all kinds of impressive. Chase could end up drafted as high as the No. 4 pick, owned by the Falcons, come next Thursday. The first three picks of the draft -- owned by the Jaguars, Jets and 49ers -- are expected to be used on quarterbacks.

SOURCE: The Athletic

Apr 21, 2021, 1:56 PM ET

 

 

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54 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Things are coming into focus for me now with regards to Chase.  I tried like hell to find fault with him.  Needing a RB or not, you can't pass on Chase at 1.1 IMO.

I'm praying that I get him @ 1.04 in SF. I have the 1.01 (Lawrence) and 1.04. Same guy has 1.02 and 1.03. He needs a QB and I'm hoping and praying he goes RB. I feel the same as you do. He's my 1.01 (except in SF I'll take Trevor Lawrence).

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On 4/21/2021 at 11:18 AM, Birdie048 said:

I am in the same boat.  Chase is my #1 and I have the 1.01 pick on my rebuild.  The problem:  the volume of high quality WR far exceeds the quality of elite RBs.  Supply & Demand at it's simplist form. 

The "BPA" is not always what works.... 

 

5 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

It isn't, but at the top of the draft it is. Positional value matters, but not if the talent disparity is that great. As the gap in talent narrows that's when BPA matters less.

 

5 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

I definitely agree with this.  Trouble is, there are about 9 players that would be considered top tier talent.  Even if you filter off 2 or 3 of them it is still a hard decision in the first 6 picks.  I'm guessing landing spots will clear up some of this and separate some of these players.

I think BPA is the only way to go for the first few rounds of a rookie draft.  Need should not come into play unless you really are tied in your evaluation of players at two different positions.  

 

The whole key to a rookie draft is hitting on your picks.  It doesn't even matter the position.  If you don't hit the pick is not good even if it is at a more preferred position.  The draft is so much of a crap shoot taking the best player gives you the best chance at hitting with the pick.  

 

Really putting time into a combined draft board is the key.  If you do that then trust it as that is all you can do.  Take the BPA available and then you can live with it.  Reaching for a player because you think you need that position and then the player you had rated higher actually does what you thought while the lesser player doesn't live up will always haunt you.  

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2 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

How would you rank the WRs in this draft?

My current top 8 looks like this:

1. Ja'Marr Chase 
2. Jaylen Waddle 
3. DeVonta Smith 
4. Rashod Bateman
5. Elijah Moore
6. Terrace Marshall Jr.
7. Rondale Moore
8. Kadarius Toney

 

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I get what everyone is saying but it seems to be like RBs retain value better than WRs and provide a much lower bar for a hit. There's so many WRs who we can expect to be startable next year and give us a solid floor with nice upside. That RB list thins out really quickly and any RB who is getting regular touches becomes a hot commodity. Then there is the ceiling, there is no bigger difference maker than a top 6 or so RB. 

Also, I am clearly much higher than most on ETN so I see him and Chase as pretty close in pedigree. 

 

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53 minutes ago, Faust said:

My current top 8 looks like this:

1. Ja'Marr Chase 
2. Jaylen Waddle 
3. DeVonta Smith 
4. Rashod Bateman
5. Elijah Moore
6. Terrace Marshall Jr.
7. Rondale Moore
8. Kadarius Toney

 

We agree on the top 6, but I'm unsure I would put E Moore over Marshall.  

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24 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I get what everyone is saying but it seems to be like RBs retain value better than WRs and provide a much lower bar for a hit. There's so many WRs who we can expect to be startable next year and give us a solid floor with nice upside. That RB list thins out really quickly and any RB who is getting regular touches becomes a hot commodity. Then there is the ceiling, there is no bigger difference maker than a top 6 or so RB. 

Also, I am clearly much higher than most on ETN so I see him and Chase as pretty close in pedigree. 

I agree with everything after the bolded, but I'm not following that at all. Mind unpacking it?

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  • JohnnyU changed the title to Dynasty (2021) WR Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals

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