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The Commish

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  • 2 weeks later...

What are the chances FL is one of the states that screws up again?  Broward County better have it together this time.  We have been "successfully" doing absentee ballots now for a while, so the Covid should not be that big of a deal.  There has been plenty of notice of an election happening, so people should have plenty of time to vote early.

Let it be Pennsylvania, NC, and Michigan in the news next Wednesday.   We don't need another FL supervisor of elections to be trending.

 

Edited by Punxsutawney Phil
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On 10/28/2020 at 2:15 PM, Punxsutawney Phil said:

What are the chances FL is one of the states that screws up again?  Broward County better have it together this time.  We have been "successfully" doing absentee ballots now for a while, so the Covid should not be that big of a deal.  There has been plenty of notice of an election happening, so people should have plenty of time to vote early.

Let it be Pennsylvania, NC, and Michigan in the news next Wednesday.   We don't need another FL supervisor of elections to be trending.

 

Chances are pretty high, but it won't be with "mail in" ballots...it will be with election day problems like it is every other time.

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I saw our local news on while I was picking up a food order a couple days ago and I'm pretty sure it said that here in central Florida the 18-34 demographic in the 2016 election had 130K ish voters who submitted a ballot.  So far this time around it's pushing 500K.  

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On 10/28/2020 at 2:38 PM, E Street Brat said:

I loved that movie,  

It may have been the first time I seen boobies. 

 

 

I had great memories of that film and made the mistake of watching it again recently. My god what a disaster. But I still love the sheer genius of the scene where they finally get everyones attention to warn them all - and the people all just turn and continue. Worth all the horrible acting and cheesy special effects.

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13 hours ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

I had great memories of that film and made the mistake of watching it again recently. My god what a disaster. But I still love the sheer genius of the scene where they finally get everyones attention to warn them all - and the people all just turn and continue. Worth all the horrible acting and cheesy special effects.

I'm surprised this has never been redone.

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7 minutes ago, Punxsutawney Phil said:

I voted against this.  I figured everyone would team up and vote against the leading candidate, just like they vote to veto trades involving the top teams in fantasy.

I've never seen that in any of the states I've ever lived in that provide it.  It's possible.  I just don't think it's probable.  And as a NPA, I'd like to take part in a primary if someone catches my eye.

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  • 3 weeks later...
1 hour ago, The Commish said:

Unbelievable

Continuing to punt this down to the individual business owners to refuse service.  Coward.

In Miami-Dade county, for non-partisan county mayor position, the people voted for the liberal candidate, Daniella Levine Cava, over her conservative anti-socialism opponent by a wide margin. She, along with many Republican mayors in the county are pushing back against DeSantis. But thus far, they've been unable to reach him.

>> For her debut COVID press conference, Levine Cava tapped city mayors, and academic and business organizations to be on the Zoom call as well. One theme was criticism of Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose statewide order from late September forced Miami-Dade to reopen bars and nightclubs and prevents local governments from collecting fines tied to emergency COVID orders.

“It’s great to be united here in Miami-Dade County,” said Hialeah Mayor Carlos Hernández. “Hopefully our state government, our governor, will understand we believe in science. That science is the best way to keep our businesses open.”

Like DeSantis, Hernández is a Republican. So is Francis Suarez, the mayor of Miami, who said Tuesday he’s been unable to get DeSantis on the phone to talk about allowing cities and counties to get tougher on mask mandates. “We don’t have all the tools in our tool box,” Suarez said. “I’m going to continue to reach out to Governor DeSantis and impress upon him the need for us to have that local control.”

The Sept. 25 DeSantis order on fines has all but stopped citations for Miami-Dade’s countywide mask mandate, though Miami Beach announced this week it would resume issuing tickets even if fine collections are on hold.

“Now is definitely not the time to let up,” Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber said.

A week into her tenure as leader of Florida’s largest local government and the one managing the state’s most severe COVID hot spot, Levine Cava said she’s also been unable to connect with DeSantis. The governor’s office did not respond to a request for comment on when DeSantis planned to connect with Levine Cava, a Democrat.

“I am looking forward to speaking to the governor,” Levine Cava said. “I look forward to his call.”<<

 

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10 minutes ago, The Commish said:

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/12/03/desantis-tells-trump-to-fight-on-takes-aim-at-science-and-has-beef-with-john-roberts-1341031

I guess he had me fooled....initially I thought he was going to be better than I thought.  Wheels have completely come off...amazing to watch.

Kind of an odd, scattered article. I think DeSantis is doing a good job so far - not flawless - but far from wheels falling off. Especially in comparison with some other Governors of large states. Just curious, what bothers you (from that article)?

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1 hour ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

Kind of an odd, scattered article. I think DeSantis is doing a good job so far - not flawless - but far from wheels falling off. Especially in comparison with some other Governors of large states. Just curious, what bothers you (from that article)?

Well, the first thing is the "fight on" to overturn the election.  That's just brutal at this point.  I was fully on board with the "show us what you got" stuff a few weeks ago.  Now, we are at the part of the program where they're just throwing out nonsense much like my 3 year old throws out nonsense to do anything/everything he can to stay up for just a few more minutes.  Supporting that is indefensible IMO. 

Second, his double talk on climate change is a huge problem in my view.  His actions speak differently (thankfully).  It's pretty clear he sees the need for change on the climate front and has taken some steps...that's the good thing.  The bad thing is the lip service he's paying to ruling by EO etc.  I wouldn't have a problem with that had he spoken out about this problem while Trump was doing it.  It's divisive and unnecessary. 

Third, I have significant issue with people using gross generalizations to attack our Supreme Court simply because it's a ruling they disagree with.  If you're going to go there, at least have the courtesy to offer the legal basis you're standing on. 

Finally, I have a huge issue with the way he's handled this pandemic.  He started out on the right foot dumping millions of dollars into testing initially and beginning to put contact tracers in place, then as the data and the agenda began to diverge, he jumped on the side of his agenda.  Once that happened, all the work he had done to "get ready" was rendered a huge waste of time.  His complaints about not being able to tell where the virus came from is a him issue...allocate the resources to get contact tracers out there doing contact tracing.  You spent millions of dollars on testing to get it to a point that anyone who wanted a test could get one, but why if you aren't going to follow up on contact tracing?  It's like trying to make a sandwich without bread.  The final straw for me was his overreach in not allowing local municipalities to fine/jail people not following the rules in their area.  "You can have a mandate but you can't enforce it" isn't a satisfactory position with this pandemic.  It's putting the pressure on individual business owners to either do the right thing or stay opened in a way they know they are contributing to spreading this virus.  That's garbage IMO.  If you're going to punt to local municipalities to "do what they think it right" then do that.  Don't only punt the parts you think they should be doing.  That's the act of a coward.

TL'DR:  "Wheels coming off" isn't derived solely from this article...my views are well documented in this thread.  This is a culmination of everything I see wrong with what happens when one chooses agenda over the science.  

Edited by The Commish
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5 minutes ago, The Commish said:

TL'DR:  "Wheels coming off" isn't derived solely from this article...

Thanks. When I read the article I was having a hard time connecting it to your response. It seemed an excessive use of "partial quotes" to support the authors point and not what DeSantis was actually saying, but otherwise pretty scattershot and sloppy imo.

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12 minutes ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

Pro Tip: Any time a headline reports that a politician "suggests" something, there's a very good chance the attached article doesn't support that.

There's a reason I don't typically post the titles of articles.  In this case, echoing this nonsense is exactly what he did and he doubled down today in a press conference I was watching.  State isn't going to be getting the doses he promised and now he's trying to shift the goalposts which, in this case, is probably the most dangerous way I can think of shifting them.  All he had to do was say the federal government was shifting the way they were distributing the vaccine.  That was no fault of his own but he chose to do this instead.  It's disgusting and dangeruous

Edited by The Commish
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1 minute ago, The Commish said:

There's a reason I don't typically post the titles of articles.  In this case, echoing this nonsense is exactly what he did and he doubled down today in a press conference I was watching. 

OK that's cool and I respect your opinion, but why not post that instead? When you post a link to an article, no one has any way of knowing what you've seen first hand and can only read the article you post.

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18 minutes ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

OK that's cool and I respect your opinion, but why not post that instead? When you post a link to an article, no one has any way of knowing what you've seen first hand and can only read the article you post.

Not sure I understand...post what instead?  I was in the car this AM and heard it.  So, I came home to see if I could find the show I heard the comments on.  This article came up but I couldn't find the press conference from this AM.  The article and what he said are the exact same thing...he doubled down.  So what does it matter if I post the article I did saying that or an article about the press conference today that says he said it again?  Sorta lost here....

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35 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Not sure I understand...post what instead?  I was in the car this AM and heard it.  So, I came home to see if I could find the show I heard the comments on.  This article came up but I couldn't find the press conference from this AM.  The article and what he said are the exact same thing...he doubled down.  So what does it matter if I post the article I did saying that or an article about the press conference today that says he said it again?  Sorta lost here....

OK let's try this because I have no idea what you heard on the radio or watched.

DeSantis said “I’m not sure that Pfizer would agree or FDA would agree, but I think just the point is, getting that first does out really does make a difference, and I think you’ll see that.”

Just trying to understand your issue with this.

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5 minutes ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

OK let's try this because I have no idea what you heard on the radio or watched.

DeSantis said “I’m not sure that Pfizer would agree or FDA would agree, but I think just the point is, getting that first does out really does make a difference, and I think you’ll see that.”

Just trying to understand your issue with this.

What I heard on the radio this AM was him doubling down that two doses might not be necessary...what was in the article.  There is ZERO evidence of this and Pfizer is clear their treatment is two doses.  They make no promises if just one is given.  My issue with it is it's irresponsible to say and serves no purpose other than self service for over promising.

Edited by The Commish
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1 hour ago, The Commish said:

What I heard on the radio this AM was him doubling down that two doses might not be necessary...what was in the article.  There is ZERO evidence of this and Pfizer is clear their treatment is two doses.  They make no promises if just one is given.  My issue with it is it's irresponsible to say and serves no purpose other than self service for over promising.

I watched a zoom presentation today (was internal for my hospital and 1 other) and one of the slides in the presentation showed 1 dose will give about 52% efficacy...but both doses are about 94%.   So while 1 helps, get both.

Also, there was talk on making the presentation public (really well done by the head of the ID department) and if it is I will post it here.  Warning though, it was an hour long.

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  • 2 weeks later...
1 hour ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

Daily New Cases per 1M: CA & FL

Comparing FL and CA since the start of the pandemic, FL had a big jump in July peaking at 55 cases per 100K in mid-July, while the peak in CA was 25 per 100K.  My theory is that states with a big first wave (NY in April, FL in July) have imparted some immunity to essential workers and their families, while states with a little or no first wave (SD,  Tenn) imparted almost no immunity. Thus, states such as SD, Montana, CA, & Tenn have had a bigger second wave. In ActCividNow, you can compare multiple states: https://www.covidactnow.org/us/california-ca?s=1470426

Edited by SoBeDad
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I'm not sure we should be applauding the "slow and steady incline for months" approach.  Maybe I'm alone here, but that seems ungood.  Not to mention what this is doing to businesses now that all their protections are gone and people still aren't confident enough to go out in the numbers necessary for businesses to remain open.  Central Florida is taking a beating and businesses are closing at the same rate (or higher) now than they were May-July....

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3 minutes ago, The Commish said:

I'm not sure we should be applauding the "slow and steady incline for months" approach.  Maybe I'm alone here, but that seems ungood.  Not to mention what this is doing to businesses now that all their protections are gone and people still aren't confident enough to go out in the numbers necessary for businesses to remain open.  Central Florida is taking a beating and businesses are closing at the same rate (or higher) now than they were May-July....

Tampa and St. Pete had the highest hotel occupancy in the nation at 51%, which is bad, but those are the jobs that DiSantis has been touting. Miami and Orlando were lower at 46% and 42%, as they are more crowded and less "safe" than Tampa and St. Pete. In Miami Beach, the restaurants and liquor store owners I've spoken to say that the weekends are almost normal, but the week days are dead. I walked down Lincoln Road last night and saw the biggest crowds I've seen since the start of the pandemic - a holiday effect. I saw lots of license plates from GA, NC, VA, NY, MA. Among people walking, mask usage was about 75%, but it's 100% inside of retail stores. There is a concentration effect - those restaurants that have survived are doing well. Miami Beach has a lot of outdoor seating at restaurants which is an appeal, although last night was a cool 55-60 degrees so the limited indoor seating was busier than usual. Many businesses have closed and the number of lost jobs in hospitality is huge.  I'm not sure how those people who lost jobs are paying rent, etc.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/12/27/2020-busiest-travel-destination-was-tampa-and-st-petersburg-florida-hotel-occupancy-data-str-shows/?sh=1c7f05d01b65

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34 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

Tampa and St. Pete had the highest hotel occupancy in the nation at 51%, which is bad, but those are the jobs that DiSantis has been touting. Miami and Orlando were lower at 46% and 42%, as they are more crowded and less "safe" than Tampa and St. Pete. In Miami Beach, the restaurants and liquor store owners I've spoken to say that the weekends are almost normal, but the week days are dead. I walked down Lincoln Road last night and saw the biggest crowds I've seen since the start of the pandemic - a holiday effect. I saw lots of license plates from GA, NC, VA, NY, MA. Among people walking, mask usage was about 75%, but it's 100% inside of retail stores. There is a concentration effect - those restaurants that have survived are doing well. Miami Beach has a lot of outdoor seating at restaurants which is an appeal, although last night was a cool 55-60 degrees so the limited indoor seating was busier than usual. Many businesses have closed and the number of lost jobs in hospitality is huge.  I'm not sure how those people who lost jobs are paying rent, etc.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/12/27/2020-busiest-travel-destination-was-tampa-and-st-petersburg-florida-hotel-occupancy-data-str-shows/?sh=1c7f05d01b65

Not sure if you've ever listened to Hank Fishkind, but he seems to be a great resource on this stuff, at least in our area (Central Florida).  He echos a lot of this.  Around here all the "local" places are getting wiped out.  Each week, in my little town, there's a place or two that closes it's doors.  That said, there are also a few places trying to open under these conditions too, but I just don't see how that's going to work.  There are a handful of "local" places here that have an incredible level of support.  The pizza place we go, for example, has done monster delivery/pick up business, but their dining room is dead.  

As for hotels around here, my SIL worked at the Hilton Bonnet Creek (right outside of Disney) and they are JUST NOW starting to ask people to come back, but it's only servers and staff that support outdoor activity and the hotel is only at 30ish percent occupancy on a consistent basis.  They have ZERO "events' planned for the first quarter.  People just aren't coming here right now.  I think Disney and Universal Studios have hit their self imposed limits a dozen or so times (mostly on weekends).  Universal did it just a week or two ago.

All this on the backdrop of "just open things up so people can work" makes absolutely no sense to me...it takes both offerer of goods and consumer of goods to be on the same page and consumers just don't have the confidence right now and graphs like the one above are a huge contributor to that.  Throw on top of it all the shady "reports" coming out of the state leaders and there are some who don't even think the above type information is legit...again, contributing to the lack of confidence so desperately needed to get things right again.  Can't seem to get out of their own way.

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4 hours ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

LINK

"Anyone tweeting that Florida is not doing well is just hoping. It's not even debatable. Anything can happen but right this minute both NY and California would trade with Florida and everyone knows it. And Florida is wide open while CA and NY are crippled with closures."

Not sure the point of this if its anything other than illustrating the problem with cheerypicking points in time to make a point. I mean there was a point where this state was in the upper 9 lower 10 thousands and those other states were in the 2-3 range if i remember correctly.  

Edited by The Commish
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4 hours ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

LINK

"Anyone tweeting that Florida is not doing well is just hoping. It's not even debatable. Anything can happen but right this minute both NY and California would trade with Florida and everyone knows it. And Florida is wide open while CA and NY are crippled with closures."

Florida has lots of outdoor venues, while NY has few, especially in the cold weather. California has LA, which is like 4 Miami-Dade counties put together. I think closures should be more regional, there are places in California that could open up more.

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