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The Commish

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35 minutes ago, That one guy said:

Hey hey hey!  Don’t go bad mouthing the true King of Central Florida, John Morgan! I’ve had many a beer with John and his family over the years, he truly wants you to be able to party!

I would have to agree with that he is a good guy even if he is a lawyer.

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9 minutes ago, rustycolts said:

Tried the same with M.M. Wouldn't allow flower to be sold. Same with Daylight savings thay we  voted on still not all year round. Seems like all politicians they feel they know better what is good for us than we do. Amendment 4 will happen but it will take time because of the politicians.

It is my understanding that the daylight savings issue is a federal issue and the amendment essentially provided us (FL) the ability to petition federal congress to approve the switch.  It’s never gonna happen, though, as we’re way too large of a market to go splitting up the EST zone; we need NYC to get on board for it to ever go through 

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18 minutes ago, That one guy said:

It is my understanding that the daylight savings issue is a federal issue and the amendment essentially provided us (FL) the ability to petition federal congress to approve the switch.  It’s never gonna happen, though, as we’re way too large of a market to go splitting up the EST zone; we need NYC to get on board for it to ever go through 

Being a fisherman I am all about daylight savings time. I think Indiana has it all year round. I think it's a great idea

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I live a half hour due west of The Villages. It is expanding but moving northerly away from Orlando. It is in the town of “Wildwood”, if you are on the turnpike it is right by the “Okahumpka” plaza. It is a Utopian golf cart third world fueled by Viagra and happy hour/early bird specials. I’ve heard there is a colored flag system for your golf cart if you are out trolling! 
 

Welcome to Florida!

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21 minutes ago, Joe Mammy said:

I live a half hour due west of The Villages. It is expanding but moving northerly away from Orlando. It is in the town of “Wildwood”, if you are on the turnpike it is right by the “Okahumpka” plaza. It is a Utopian golf cart third world fueled by Viagra and happy hour/early bird specials. I’ve heard there is a colored flag system for your golf cart if you are out trolling! 
 

Welcome to Florida!

Local Buffalo talk radio is always laughingly talking about The Villages and the different things that happen there and make the news. Kind of funny.

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2 hours ago, rustycolts said:
2 hours ago, The Commish said:

Wait...I'm confused.  If this is the case, then what is the legislature doing exactly by trying to get things NOT in the ballot verbiage into law?  And what exactly is the FL Supreme Court weighing in on per request of the Governor?  If already decided by our vote, this is done.  I"m missing something here.

Tried the same with M.M. Wouldn't allow flower to be sold. Same with Daylight savings thay we  voted on still not all year round. Seems like all politicians they feel they know better what is good for us than we do. Amendment 4 will happen but it will take time because of the politicians.

Right....but I'm trying to reconcile what he said with it being up to the politicians.  If we vote and it's done, then I don't understand what the politician role is in this whole fiasco.

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1 hour ago, Joe Mammy said:

I live a half hour due west of The Villages. It is expanding but moving northerly away from Orlando. It is in the town of “Wildwood”, if you are on the turnpike it is right by the “Okahumpka” plaza. It is a Utopian golf cart third world fueled by Viagra and happy hour/early bird specials. I’ve heard there is a colored flag system for your golf cart if you are out trolling! 
 

Welcome to Florida!

And the country's highest STD rate per capita in the country   :lol: 

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Live in SW FL where the local GOP nominated Trump as statesman of the year...twice. DeSantis has been a pleasant surprise, he rode Trump's coattails to the governor's mansion, now he's doing his own thing which says he's politically savvy. I'll never vote for anyone that supported this administration. Silence to me equates to complicity.

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7 hours ago, E Street Brat said:

So after years of voting for candidates that made your city to expensive to live in. You come to Florida and vote for the exact same of kind of people that will enact the same kind of laws that lead to leaving.   

Brilliant!!

Why do you think that politicians made New York too expensive to live in? I think the fact that it's a) filled with rich people and b) an island with a finite amount of space is what made it too expensive.

6 hours ago, Kal El said:

The problem with that is that the positives almost never come without the negatives. It's also a different culture here, and while Yankees love to tell us how much better it is where they used to live, that probably won't work down here.

Not doubting that you have encountered plenty of people like that, but for the record, I never said, nor do I think, that the states I lived in up north were uniformly better than Florida. In some ways, sure. I have two special-needs kids, and I'm guessing we would have more treatment options if we lived up north. On the other hand, I grew up in NJ and lived for years in NY, both of whose state governments are almost cartoonishly corrupt. Whatever issues I may have with FL's state government, I don't think that's the case here.

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7 hours ago, E Street Brat said:

Legislation should come from the elected officials, and all these amendments do is give cover to the cowards who are afraid to sign their name to a law that may harm their re-election efforts.

Historically, I've shared your skepticism of referenda, but issues like Amendment 4 are causing me to rethink my opposition. This was an issue that the electorate favored by huge margins, yet it never would have passed if we had left it up to the legislature. So maybe it is useful to provide people with the opportunity to do an end run.

6 hours ago, rustycolts said:

I like that we vote on amendments. The problem is that they are written in a way that no one can understand them. You may think you are voting in something you believe in when actually you are voting against it. That was the problem with amendment 3 in 2018. People thought they were voting pro Casino when they were not.  Anytime Disney or The Seminoles are in favor of an amendment you can be sure it's not pro gambling.

This right here is my biggest problem with governing via referenda. The language is Orwellian! The better the language sounds, the more I'm inclined to vote no, because it makes me suspect they're hiding something. The gambling stuff is a perfect example. Also, that solar energy referendum last year where the ads made it sound like it was pro-solar, but it was really being underwritten by FPL and other industry bigwigs to try to limit solar.

At their best, referenda are a way for people to have their voice heard when government is ignoring them. At their worst, it's a way for interest groups to sneak something past people when they're not paying attention.

Edited by zftcg
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Speaking of amendments.  It looks like groups are organizing to get an amendment for "assault weapons" to be banned in the state.  I'm just starting to research but so far the specific weapons they are targeting are semi automatic rifles and shotguns that can hold over 10 rounds.

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49 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Speaking of amendments.  It looks like groups are organizing to get an amendment for "assault weapons" to be banned in the state.  I'm just starting to research but so far the specific weapons they are targeting are semi automatic rifles and shotguns that can hold over 10 rounds.

I just don't see it happening down here. People are not going to go for them coming after their shotguns. I personally have no problem with them putting major restrictions on Semi Auto assault rifles. I mean I don't see much sport in hunting Bambi with one and it is a little overkill for home protection with all the other options available. I guess they are ok for target practice unless your trying to hit the target. I remember I couldn't hit anything on auto with my M-16. However it is our right to own weapons and don't believe they should be outlawed just come up some restrictions that are reasonable.

Edited by rustycolts
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6 minutes ago, rustycolts said:

I just don't see it happening down here. People are not going to go for them coming after their shotguns. I personally have no problem with them putting major restrictions on Semi Auto assault rifles. I mean I don't see much sport in hunting Bambi with one and it is a little overkill for home protection with all the other options available. I guess they are ok for target practice unless your trying to hit the target. I remember I couldn't hit anything on auto with my M-16. However it is our right to own weapons and don't believe they should be outlawed just come up some restrictions that are reasonable.

This is sort of where I'm at.  I'm not a big gun guy and I definitely don't know about all the gun types, features etc.  I rely heavily on the guys around me to inform me on that sort of stuff.  They are far from the "nut" variety of gun guys, but they love their guns.  None of them own semi automatic shotguns nor do they understand the need for them.  That said, I think these sorts of steps need to be taken smaller in size.  Do one at a time and frame them differently like they have the climate change debate.  It's absolutely astonishing to me how the presentation of "sea level rise" is basically welcomed with open arms by the same people who outright reject "flooding because of climate change".

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3 minutes ago, The Commish said:

This is sort of where I'm at.  I'm not a big gun guy and I definitely don't know about all the gun types, features etc.  I rely heavily on the guys around me to inform me on that sort of stuff.  They are far from the "nut" variety of gun guys, but they love their guns.  None of them own semi automatic shotguns nor do they understand the need for them.  That said, I think these sorts of steps need to be taken smaller in size.  Do one at a time and frame them differently like they have the climate change debate.  It's absolutely astonishing to me how the presentation of "sea level rise" is basically welcomed with open arms by the same people who outright reject "flooding because of climate change".

MMM probably get some grief for this but I don't hold much stock in the Florida is sinking thing. I mean they have been saying Big Pine Key is sinking for years. It's still there.

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46 minutes ago, rustycolts said:

I just don't see it happening down here. People are not going to go for them coming after their shotguns. I personally have no problem with them putting major restrictions on Semi Auto assault rifles. I mean I don't see much sport in hunting Bambi with one and it is a little overkill for home protection with all the other options available. I guess they are ok for target practice unless your trying to hit the target. I remember I couldn't hit anything on auto with my M-16. However it is our right to own weapons and don't believe they should be outlawed just come up some restrictions that are reasonable.

I agree with you that I wouldn't put any money down on an assault-weapons ban passing in any form. But this kind of goes to the discussion upthread about the value of ballot initiatives. The NRA has a lobbyist in Tallahassee who has a stranglehold on gun legislation; particularly as long as the GOP is in charge, we're not going to see even modest legislation passed. Enacting a ban via referendum may be unlikely, but it's probably the only chance of anything getting through the way this state is currently wired.

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29 minutes ago, rustycolts said:

MMM probably get some grief for this but I don't hold much stock in the Florida is sinking thing. I mean they have been saying Big Pine Key is sinking for years. It's still there.

Can you explain the "florida is sinking" thing?  I've never heard that.  Funny thing....my FIL has a house on Big Pine and we are down there all the time.  I've known my wife now for 20 years, been married 15.  I've been going there for that entire time.  

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14 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Can you explain the "florida is sinking" thing?  I've never heard that.  Funny thing....my FIL has a house on Big Pine and we are down there all the time.  I've known my wife now for 20 years, been married 15.  I've been going there for that entire time.  

Just me being Southern. Should have said sea level rising flooding the Keys with Big Pine being one of the first to feel the effects. They have been saying that for a long time. All the Keys are great been going since I was old enough to take road trips with my buddies. Big Pine is one of my favorites. 

What I meant about being Southern is we tend to exaggerate . Have you ever asked a true Southener directions it will take them 20 mins to tell you to go straight 2 miles and then turn left.

Edited by rustycolts
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Jon Favreau (the former Obama speechwriter, not the movie director) has a podcast called "The Wilderness" about the future of the Democratic Party. This week's episode is on the Southeast, specifically Georgia and Florida. It's obviously not an unbiased source, so if your politics don't lean left you might find lots to disagree with, but I thought the discussion of Florida politics, particularly the Latino vote, was nuanced and interesting. He's clear-eyed about many of the mistakes Democrats have made courting Latinos (and what Trump is doing right). The two biggest mistakes are a) lumping all Latinos together, and b) thinking that immigration is the only issue they care about.

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Speaking of The Wilderness, one thing I learned from that episode about Amendment 4 that blew my mind (and confirms my suspicion that the GOP maneuvers are obviously intended to suppress the vote): Under the legislation that was just upheld by the courts, if an ex-felon who has not paid off all of their fees attempts to register to vote, it will be considered a felony. Lest you think that's an empty threat, in Texas a woman who cast a provisional ballot without realizing her previous conviction made her ineligible was sentenced to five years in prison.

But of course, it doesn't matter if anyone is actually prosecuted. The goal is to make people who already have criminal records think twice about registering. Better play it safe and not risk getting sent back to jail. The cynicism at work here is really astounding.

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28 minutes ago, rustycolts said:

Just me being Southern. Should have said sea level rising flooding the Keys with Big Pine being one of the first to feel the effects. They have been saying that for a long time. All the Keys are great been going since I was old enough to take road trips with my buddies. Big Pine is one of my favorites. 

What I meant about being Southern is we tend to exaggerate . Have you ever asked a true Southener directions it will take them 20 mins to tell you to go straight 2 miles and then turn left.

Gotcha.  I grew up in the NC/SC area and have spent a lot of time down in this area before moving here a couple years ago, so I'm familiar with "southern"  ;)

The largest issue they seem to be struggling down there is sanitation.  They are in the midst of a huge project to put in public sanitation because a lot of the septic tanks are breached and leaching into the ocean.  I have seen the impacts on Looe Key with my own eyes.  It's significantly different today than it was not even 10 years ago.  I hadn't heard the claim that it was sinking though.  Probably the most bizarre project I've seen down there was the installation of the bridges to protect the key deer...so bizarre.

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12 hours ago, The Commish said:

Can you explain the "florida is sinking" thing?  I've never heard that.  Funny thing....my FIL has a house on Big Pine and we are down there all the time.  I've known my wife now for 20 years, been married 15.  I've been going there for that entire time.  

I mentioned earlier in this thread: When my conservative sister-in-law said it, that was the first time I had ever heard that argument. I should have asked her follow-up questions to understand where she was coming from, but I was so stunned I wasn't even sure how to respond. But yeah, I read it as an excuse for inaction on climate change, as in, "Sea levels aren't rising, Miami's just sinking, so no need to reduce carbon emissions."

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9 hours ago, zftcg said:

I mentioned earlier in this thread: When my conservative sister-in-law said it, that was the first time I had ever heard that argument. I should have asked her follow-up questions to understand where she was coming from, but I was so stunned I wasn't even sure how to respond. But yeah, I read it as an excuse for inaction on climate change, as in, "Sea levels aren't rising, Miami's just sinking, so no need to reduce carbon emissions."

I read that and had no clue what you were saying.  Then I saw rustycolts say the same thing, so I thought I'd ask :lol: 

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21 hours ago, zftcg said:

Speaking of The Wilderness, one thing I learned from that episode about Amendment 4 that blew my mind (and confirms my suspicion that the GOP maneuvers are obviously intended to suppress the vote): Under the legislation that was just upheld by the courts, if an ex-felon who has not paid off all of their fees attempts to register to vote, it will be considered a felony. Lest you think that's an empty threat, in Texas a woman who cast a provisional ballot without realizing her previous conviction made her ineligible was sentenced to five years in prison.

But of course, it doesn't matter if anyone is actually prosecuted. The goal is to make people who already have criminal records think twice about registering. Better play it safe and not risk getting sent back to jail. The cynicism at work here is really astounding.

They had several people on "Florida Roundup" on NPR a few days ago and apparently there is a well funded group out there not only raising money to help people pay off their debts, but also providing legal help to make sure they are in the clear in terms of fulfilling their duties per the law.  It's crazy that we have to have groups like that.

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Big political news from South Florida: Term-limited Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez is running for Congress against freshman Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in FL-26. Gimenez is popular and has done a good job as mayor, but I think it's going to be really hard for him to balance Trump's need for unquestioning loyalty with the Dem lean of the district (D+6). It is true the seat has flipped back and forth between both parties over the past decade, but it's hard to draw too many lessons because so many of the candidates (from both parties) have been corrupt. The 2018 election was the first between two candidates who were clean (as far as we know), and DMP narrowly defeated the incumbent, Carlos Curbelo.

Curbelo had a really hard time striking the aforementioned balance -- Trump made fun of him after he lost. Based on Gimenez's recent tweet (which scored a presidential retweet), it sounds like he's going all in on the Trump Train. But I wonder what happens when Trump finds out he voted for Hillary.

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18 hours ago, zftcg said:

Big political news from South Florida: Term-limited Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez is running for Congress against freshman Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in FL-26. Gimenez is popular and has done a good job as mayor, but I think it's going to be really hard for him to balance Trump's need for unquestioning loyalty with the Dem lean of the district (D+6). It is true the seat has flipped back and forth between both parties over the past decade, but it's hard to draw too many lessons because so many of the candidates (from both parties) have been corrupt. The 2018 election was the first between two candidates who were clean (as far as we know), and DMP narrowly defeated the incumbent, Carlos Curbelo.

Curbelo had a really hard time striking the aforementioned balance -- Trump made fun of him after he lost. Based on Gimenez's recent tweet (which scored a presidential retweet), it sounds like he's going all in on the Trump Train. But I wonder what happens when Trump finds out he voted for Hillary.

Are you in South Florida?  I think we have central Florida well represented here.  We need a few from the south and north to keep us up to date on things like this going on in those areas.

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2 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Are you in South Florida?  I think we have central Florida well represented here.  We need a few from the south and north to keep us up to date on things like this going on in those areas.

Yes, Miami. I'll try to post anything of interest to the broader group (don't worry, not going to post minutes from the Miramar town council meeting; for one thing, I don't even live there).

The other contested seat down here will be FL-27, which Donna Shalala won last year after Ileana Ros-Lehtinen retired. I was actually a little surprised that Gimenez isn't targeting that race (Florida doesn't have residency requirements, and candidates frequently go district shopping to find the most winnable race). Shalala is in her late 70s and is an Anglo in a heavily Latino district. She won in 2018, but she was a lackluster candidate and the race was much closer than the fundamentals would have suggested. I'm guessing it was the fact that she's so well known and is a prodigious fundraiser from her time as President of UM. Also, he presumably got to know her well in each of their previous jobs, and maybe he just didn't want to run against a friend. 

My semi-informed guess is that Dems hold on to both seats, but at a minimum there will be lots of resources poured into those races.

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On 1/20/2020 at 4:52 PM, That one guy said:

Hey hey hey!  Don’t go bad mouthing the true King of Central Florida, John Morgan! I’ve had many a beer with John and his family over the years, he truly wants you to be able to party!

I would have expected him to support recreational.  The last I heard it isn't going to make it to the ballot.

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8 hours ago, rustycolts said:

Will be on the 2022 ballot.

Morgan said he "supports" recreational but didn't support the initiative like he did medical.  He has never supported patients being able to grow it themselves.  One has to wonder why John Morgan spent millions of his own money in the first place.  

https://myflorida420.com/does-john-morgan-really-care-about-legalization-efforts/

Edited by Punxsutawney Phil
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So...dumb question :oldunsure:

Does he have political aspirations?  I know two things about him:  1.  The commercials for his firm are everywhere up here...annoying.  2.  A friend of mine worked for his firm for a bit and said "never again" (I haven't ever asked him to elaborate).

That's all I know about him...I wasn't aware he's on the political scene which seems to be the case.  

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4 hours ago, Osaurus said:

If they can actually get all the signatures they need. Didn’t make it for 2020

I think they will make it in 2022. There are a lot of old hippies down here (boomers). We all grew up in the 60s and 70s so it's not be the old folks that will stop it.

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1 hour ago, The Commish said:

So...dumb question :oldunsure:

Does he have political aspirations?  I know two things about him:  1.  The commercials for his firm are everywhere up here...annoying.  2.  A friend of mine worked for his firm for a bit and said "never again" (I haven't ever asked him to elaborate).

That's all I know about him...I wasn't aware he's on the political scene which seems to be the case.  

He has been a big Obama supporter in the past. So be would probably have a lot of support from establishment Dems. I think there was an effort for him to run in the last election but he did not want to.

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1 hour ago, rustycolts said:

I think they will make it in 2022. There are a lot of old hippies down here (boomers). We all grew up in the 60s and 70s so it's not be the old folks that will stop it.

I seem to recall hearing something after the 2018 election about how GOP legislators wanted to make it harder to get referenda on the ballot. But I’m not sure they ever followed through. Anyone know?

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2 hours ago, rustycolts said:

He has been a big Obama supporter in the past. So be would probably have a lot of support from establishment Dems. I think there was an effort for him to run in the last election but he did not want to.

What offices?  Governor?  Senate/House?

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2 hours ago, zftcg said:

Clueless city slicker that I am, I would have guessed you would want an earlier sunrise

This was my understanding.  I've done a little fishing, mostly when I was younger, and it was my understanding that early morning was the best time as the water would be cooler and the fish would be moving around and feeding.  I think this is my rusty saying he prefers that time of day to fish than how beneficial it is to the process.

ETA - and apologies for the hijack, I was just curious

Edited by AAABatteries
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So, with this ####show going on in Washington what does our US Rep and Senate situations look like?  Rubio is up for reelection in a couple years, correct?  Is there a viable opposition to him both in the primary and/or a Dem would seems like an "up and comer"?  Same with the US Reps.  I'm looking for not only primary challenges for those supporting these fiascos within the GOP but also a Dem challenger in the general if the GOP is too far gone to provide quality primary options.

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On 1/26/2020 at 12:00 PM, AAABatteries said:

This was my understanding.  I've done a little fishing, mostly when I was younger, and it was my understanding that early morning was the best time as the water would be cooler and the fish would be moving around and feeding.  I think this is my rusty saying he prefers that time of day to fish than how beneficial it is to the process.

ETA - and apologies for the hijack, I was just curious

dusk and dawn for states that don't allow night fishing.

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4 minutes ago, The Commish said:

So, with this ####show going on in Washington what does our US Rep and Senate situations look like?  Rubio is up for reelection in a couple years, correct?  Is there a viable opposition to him both in the primary and/or a Dem would seems like an "up and comer"?  Same with the US Reps.  I'm looking for not only primary challenges for those supporting these fiascos within the GOP but also a Dem challenger in the general if the GOP is too far gone to provide quality primary options.

Nikki Fried, commissioner of agricuIrure, which is the 3rd highest statewide office. I see a picture of her every time I buy gas. She also oversees gun purchases in Florida. UF student body president, attorney, public defender, lobbyist for school boards and the marijuana industry. The latter is why she outperformed Gillum and Nelson in the 2018 election in which almost everyone voted straight party. Beating Rubio is a long shot but voting against witnesses could open the door. 

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49 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

Nikki Fried, commissioner of agricuIrure, which is the 3rd highest statewide office. I see a picture of her every time I buy gas. She also oversees gun purchases in Florida. UF student body president, attorney, public defender, lobbyist for school boards and the marijuana industry. The latter is why she outperformed Gillum and Nelson in the 2018 election in which almost everyone voted straight party. Beating Rubio is a long shot but voting against witnesses could open the door. 

I think it will be interesting to see what Fried does in '22. Obviously a lot will depend on what else is going on nationally. Like, if Trump is re-elected, you would assume that the '22 midterms will be good for the Dems. Will also be interesting to see what Rubio does. Remember, he was initially not going to run for re-election to the Senate in 2016, then changed his mind after he lost in the presidential primary (with the lame excuse that it was the Pulse nightclub shooting that changed his mind, rather than the more obvious fact that Republicans wanted to ensure they could hold the seat).

My best guess is still that Fried runs for re-election in '22 under the assumption that DeSantis will be re-elected and then positions herself to run for the open governor's seat in 2026.

Another name to keep an eye on: Rep. Val Demings. Great backstory (Orlando's first female African-American sheriff) and her role as a House manager in the impeachment trial has really raised her profile. Stephanie Murphy is another Central FL Congresswoman who could have a bright future (she's also much younger than Demings). Overall Dems have a very weak bench, and the fact that even in a good year overall for the party in 2018 they still underperformed in FL doesn't help. But there are a few green shoots.

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Did Rick Scott just kick off a 2024 presidential run with Iowa ad?

Quote

The Republican U.S. senator and former Florida governor made an unusual move this week, purchasing $19,000 worth of ad time on Fox News in Iowa only, just before Tuesday’s Iowa Democratic presidential primary.

Early visits to Iowa — including photo ops eating corn dogs and the like — have long been a precursor of potential runs for president. But this could be one of the first-ever virtual visits for Scott, who has long been rumored to be laying the groundwork for a White House run in 2024.

“One of the things we’re seeing — and it’s not just him, it’s [Democratic presidential candidates] Tom Steyer and Michael Bloomberg, and Donald Trump — if you’ve got the money, it’s never too soon to get your name out there,” said Susan MacManus, professor emeritus at the University of South Florida. “Anyone looking at it will interpret it to mean he’s broadening his name recognition beyond Florida.”

And with all the free media coverage of the ad, she said, if that was his goal, “mission accomplished.”

While Scott spokesman Chris Hartline told Politico that Scott was just “getting a message out at a moment when it will be heard the loudest,” an unnamed Republican operative was also quoted by Politico saying the ad was the “starting gun for 2024.”

It's very clear that all three of Florida's top elected officials -- Scott, DeSantis and Rubio -- want to be president. Will be interesting to see how they navigate the 2024 primary. I was certain before 2016 that Rubio and Bush wouldn't run against each other, and I was wrong. And the one maxim in Florida politics over the past decade has been to never count out Scott. Still, if I had to rank them by likelihood of actually winning the nomination, I would say DeSantis, Scott, and Rubio a distant third.

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