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Florida Politics (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter The Commish
- Start date
The Commish
Footballguy
Oh right, that was DeSantis' old seat. Not super Republican, but considering Dems didn't come close to winning an open race in a very good environment, hard to imagine that one flipping anytime soon. I actually knew someone who ran against a first-term GOP incumbent in 2018 and lost by a similar margin. Goes back to what I was saying earlier about Florida basically being a Deep South state if you take away the three South Florida counties.
The Commish
Footballguy
Well, that explains why it's up again in 2020....I went trying to figure out the dates on the gov site and found it's up again this year. FWIW, he seems rather "purple" in nature in terms of local issues, but it's really tough to overlook the behavior of the House in this impeachment fiasco.
Not following. All Congressional seats are up every two years. Or do you mean there's some kind of special election?
The Commish
Footballguy
roadkill1292
Footballguy
Question from an outsider: Florida voted for Trump by an extremely narrow margin in '16. How much of a boost will the ultimate Dem candidate get from Amendment 4 passing (while taking into consideration the ensuing court battles to overturn it) and, to a much more limited extent, the permanent relocation of perhaps as many as 50,000 Puerto Ricans? Can a Democrat win the state, or just certain Dems, or none of them?
Certain Dems could win the state. 1,000 people are moving to Florida each day, and many are conservative retirees from high tax states, and military retirees. This is balanced by the factors you mention above. It's all about getting out the vote in Democratic strongholds.
Blue Dot Orange Dot
Footballguy
My wife and I will be bringing our Democratic votes to Pinellas County in June, and since I won’t be working I’ve got nothing better to do than find some candidates I like and do some volunteer work for them. When I’m not golfing or playing poker, of course.
The short answer is who knows? Democrats have displayed a rare ability to constantly come close in Florida and fall just short.
Of those two factors, I would say Amendment 4 has a better chance of having an impact, but it's unclear how much the GOP shenanigans to limit its impact will affect turnout. My biggest worry is that too many will simply be scared off by all the machinations and assume that registering is not worth the hassle (they might even conclude it's risky if people actually get prosecuted for registering before they've paid off all their fees). Also, I haven't heard anyone discuss this in depth, but I've always wondered about the fact that a) the majority of felons are white, presumably of lower educational levels, and b) that demographic tends to be supportive of Trump, so it's possible adding those voters to the rolls won't be the boon to Democrats many people expect. (For the record, I would still be in favor of more ex-felons voting regardless of who it helps).
As for Puerto Ricans, I'm less optimistic. Dems have just been constantly outhustled by Republicans in terms of activating Latinos, including Puerto Ricans. Scott did a masterful job holding down his margins among them in the 2018 Senate race. It's possible that they have a particular hatred for Trump in particular over Hurricane Maria, but as of yet there's no evidence of that having an electoral impact.
So yes, Democrats can definitely win the state. When the races are that close, you just need a couple things to break your way. But they also shouldn't fall into the trap of assuming anything is inevitable because of demographic trends or internal migration. It's going to take a lot of hard work and smart long-term strategies.
Punxsutawney Phil
Footballguy
I don't see Democrats ever winning again until the boomers die off and or the economy crashes. I'm not banking on the ex-cons or Puerto Ricans to make a huge difference.
I saw a great quote after the 2018 midterms. I'm paraphrasing, but the basic idea was, "What Democrats don't realize about Florida is that the retirees are legion. There is an endless supply of them, and they just keep moving here and voting Republican."
roadkill1292
Footballguy
I thought this was an interesting comment so I did some google-fu. About 800,000 people die in Florida every four years, 88% of them 55 and older. So that's a pile of probably GOP voters but I don't know how to factor in the inevitable reinforcements by the eastern snowbirds.
The economy will almost certainly falter in the next four years and low information voters -- unlike the upper 10 percenters who participate here at FBGs -- are likely to blame whoever sits in the White House at that time. That won't necessarily be accurate.
In 2016, Trump won by 1.2%. Gary Johnson had 2.2% of the vote and Stein 0.7%. A democrat can win in Florida.
If Steyer and Bloomberg pay the civil fines of many of those trying to regain the right to vote under Amendment 4, and support grass roots outreach, then a win in 2020 is possible. Especially if there is a moderate candidate without high unfavorable ratings.
Punxsutawney Phil
Footballguy
I think the margins could be smaller than that if they ever clean up Broward County & some of the crooked election offices around the state. I wouldn't be surprised if they were keeping dead Republicans on the ballot to help out Trump.
Broward elections board perfectly embodies the expression, "Never attribute to conspiracy that which can be explained by incompetency."
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the moops
Footballguy
Is this a Florida thing only? Never heard of a position like Commissioner of anything beign the 3rd highest office. I would have assumed Governor, Lt Governor - then something like Attorney General or Sec of State?
You may be right, but I hope like hell the state party doesn't approach the next election with that mindset, because that's what led to 20+ years of being shut out of power. Florida is Lucy with the football, and I'm sick of being Charlie Brown.
That's also true because, unlike in states such as Georgia, Texas and Arizona, long-term demographics aren't nearly as much in the Dems' favor here, both because of the new retirees as well as the inability to mobilize Latinos.
One other trend that I haven't heard much about: Supposedly the 2017 tax-cut spurred a lot of people to move here from the Northeast because it limits the state and local tax deduction. I don't know if that number is statistically significant, and if so, which party that would favor. If it inspires a bunch of millionaires and billionaires with second homes in Florida (like Trump!) to change their residency, that could benefit the GOP. But if it's a a bunch of upper-middle-class folks who are more socially liberal (which has been the general trend across the Sun Belt), that might help Democrats.
Lt. Governor is a backwater. They're usually used as a way to help win a few votes (each of the last two GOP governors chose Latinos from South Florida) and then never heard from again. In addition to Agriculture Commissioner, the other two statewide elected offices are AG and CFO. Together with the governor, they make up the official cabinet. That's typically where the parties try to build their benches, although I'm not aware of anyone who's successfully gone from cabinet official to one of the Big Three in recent years. Alex Sink, former CFO, lost to Scott in the 2010 governor's race, and Adam Putnam, former Ag Commissioner, lost to DeSantis in the 2018 GOP primary. Former AG Pam Bondi, currently serving as Trump's impeachment lawyer, seems to have a bright future in the state party, but not sure what paths are available to her. Maybe Trump names her USAG in his second term and then she comes back to Florida to run for something afterward?
Osaurus
Footballguy
Marco Rubio is like the Paul Ryan of Florida (if not worse):
“Just because actions meet a standard of impeachment does not mean it is in the best interest of the country to remove a President from office,”
Makes sense if you put your interests above those of your constituents imo.
“Just because actions meet a standard of impeachment does not mean it is in the best interest of the country to remove a President from office,”
Makes sense if you put your interests above those of your constituents imo.
The Commish
Footballguy
Yeah, this guy's got to go. If that means me registering as a Repub and helping primary him with someone non-Trumpish then I'm all about it.Osaurus said:
The Commish
Footballguy
School Voucher Discrimination
I shouldn't be surprised given the makeup of the legislature. Many are pulling support.
I shouldn't be surprised given the makeup of the legislature. Many are pulling support.
rustycolts
Footballguy
Snoopy
Footballguy
roadkill1292
Footballguy
I saw a twitter reference today to a federal appeals court upholding the injunction on the legislation requiring former felons to pay all their fines before having their voting rights restored. Which is encouraging, I guess. But I also saw a reference that these potential new voters have missed the registration deadlines. Can any of you knowledgeable locals help me out with this?
The Commish
Footballguy
I hadn't seen this yet. I know that voter registration for the primaries is over. The deadline to change affiliation for the primary was yesterday. These are the statewide dates for the events:
Registration Deadlines:
- Presidential Preference Primary Election: February 18*
- Primary Election: July 20
- General Election: October 5
- Presidential Preference Primary Election: March 17
- Primary Election: August 18
- General Election: November 3
Yes, I saw the same report. I don't have any specific answers to your questions, but I do know there are a lot of people who had already registered immediately after the ballot initiative passed whose status was thrown into question by the new legislation, so this would potentially help them. You are right that the deadline was yesterday, though I do believe that's only for the primary and they would have plenty of time to register for November's election.
One thing that sucks is that all this confusion could hold down registration and voting regardless of the ultimate decision. And you don't have to be a professional cynic to wonder if that wasn't the intention all along.
roadkill1292
Footballguy
Well of course it was. At least one of the intents.
Democrats should be hitting on easy and fair elections as hard as they hit on health care. Both of those are issues that leave Republicans fuming in silence because the policies/practices they want instead are so bad for most Americans.
>> DeSantis’ spokeswoman, Helen Aguirre Ferré, wrote on Twitter that he disagreed with the decision and would appeal it to the full appellate court.roadkill1292 said:
The ruling sets up a long and expected legal battle that both sides agree could end up before the U.S. Supreme Court. <<
This could determine who is our next president.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article240429151.html
‘He’s not going to be the nominee.’ Miami’s House Dems aren’t considering Bernie
I'm never thought much of Sanders, but I'm slowly reconciling myself to the fact that he's very likely to be the Dem nominee. But this article encapsulates so much of what worries me about his candidacy. Keeping the discussion specifically to Florida, I think he could be a real threat to Dems like Mucarsel-Powell, a freshman in a swing district that has gone back and forth over the past decade. In a neutral environment, I would expect her to be a heavy favorite even against popular two-term mayor Carlos Gimenez, in part because she can exploit fissures between him and Trump (just as she did between Trump and Carlos Curbelo in 2018). But Bernie winning the nomination is pretty much Gimenez's dream scenario, because he gets to turn the tables and drive a wedge between her and Bernie with an anti-socialism message that is likely to resonate in the district.
This article came up in another thread, and @The Commish and I apparently both had the same idea of posting it here.
I'm never thought much of Sanders, but I'm slowly reconciling myself to the fact that he's very likely to be the Dem nominee. But this article encapsulates so much of what worries me about his candidacy. Keeping the discussion specifically to Florida, I think he could be a real threat to Dems like Mucarsel-Powell, a freshman in a swing district that has gone back and forth over the past decade. In a neutral environment, I would expect her to be a heavy favorite even against popular two-term mayor Carlos Gimenez, in part because she can exploit fissures between him and Trump (just as she did between Trump and Carlos Curbelo in 2018). But Bernie winning the nomination is pretty much Gimenez's dream scenario, because he gets to turn the tables and drive a wedge between her and Bernie with an anti-socialism message that is likely to resonate in the district.
The Commish
Footballguy
You guys know this state better than me...trying to get up to speed, but is the theory that if Bernie is the nominee that voter turnout will be low? I ask because the 2018 elections went down much differently and had basically Bernie vs Trump for governor without the benefit of being able to focus on the PR relocations.
Todem
Footballguy
If Bernie wins the nom......Florida is lost to the Democrats. Trump takes this state in a landslide with Bernie as the Nom. Only the tri-country area is heavily democrat but also heavily anti-socialism.
That's an interesting point. I think one difference is that Dems were unified behind Gillum in a way they wouldn't be behind Bernie.
But honestly, my worry isn't that Bernie would depress Dem turnout. It's that he would super-charge GOP turnout. Obviously, when you lose a squeaker the way Gillum did, you can point to any factor as being decisive, but I really do think a major reason he lost was that he massively underperformed in Miami-Dade relative to previous Dem candidates, in part because of the efforts DeSantis made among Cubans and Venezuelans. I think those voters would be even more motivated against a self-described socialist. Not to mention that Trump has spent four years building out a sophisticated data operation to target those very people.
The Commish
Footballguy
So in this theory what do the self identifying Dems do? They just stay home? That's what I don't understand....when it's down to Trump and the Dem and they have to pick one (I've found no one around me who values voting for a third party. They are all in on 'lesser of two evils") do we really think they will vote for Trump?
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Florida is a low tax retiree state. The retirees in the Villages, Jacksonville and orher places are often escaping high taxes. AOC's mom fled to low tax Florida. Even the condo dwellers aren't as liberal as they used to be.
Gillum brought out the black vote but was also branded as a socialist by the Cuban talk shows because he wanted to increase corporate taxes to pay for higher teacher salaries. He almost won against a smart but non-charismatic DiSantis. I think Gwen Graham would've beaten DiSantis. She recently tweeted that the 2020 presidential could be a repeat of the 2018 governor's race.
My guess is that they still mostly vote Dem, though maybe lower enthusiasm means some stay home and some vote for Trump. But the way a Dem wins in FL is by racking up huge margins in all three S. Florida counties. Anything that prevents that from happening -- whether lower Dem turnout or higher GOP turnout -- probably spells doom.
To be fair, I'm not super optimistic about any Dem winning Florida this year. They've only tended to win it in elections where they were winning big nationwide (Clinton '96, Obama both times). And losing FL would hardly doom Bernie. But I do worry what it would do to the rest of the ticket here.
I've heard Graham make that case and I'm not convinced. She was the same bland, vanilla centrist Dems have run here for decades without winning (and there was a real-time experiment of a similar centrist running for Senate; he lost by the same amount). I was planning on voting for her until about a week out, when I saw an ad for her that was so full of poll-tested gobbledy####, I just couldn't bring myself to be that cynical.
Gillum probably blew a winnable race, but he did do some things well. He boosted black turnout, and overperformed in certain areas that Dems haven't historically done well in. For example, I think he was the first Dem to win Duvall County (Jacksonville) in a long time. As I said, you could point to a million factors, but I think his biggest mistake (other than getting himself linked to an FBI investigation) was not mobilizing Latino turnout in South Florida. Not sure how Graham would have done any better at that.
rustycolts
Footballguy
Yes I think the Dems my age or just a little younger vote for Trump. I think some of the youth vote still votes for Sanders but their turnout will be even lower than usual. If Sanders is the nominee then for the first time in years the race in Fl will not be close and Trump wins hands down imo.
The Commish
Footballguy
You're voting for him anyway right rusty? And you're just one of the demographics at play here, what about the others? Need ALL of them to vote Trump for this to reach "blowout" status.
You guys might be right on the race not being close....I just don't see it based on what happened in 2018. I don't think I've seen a blowout in Florida ever (though I haven't paid close attention until the last few years).
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fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
"Donald Trump will not be the nominee"
Debbie Wasserman Shultz saying "we're a long way from knowing" is absurd. Very possible Sanders has a stranglehold on the nomination in two weeks.
rustycolts
Footballguy
Yea I will be voting for him unless Tulsi runs as a third party candidate. Changed my party affilate from npa to Dem so I could vote for her in the primary if she lasts that long. I just don't see Sanders as a viable candidate here for it to be close.
I could very well be wrong though. Times have changed and so has the population of Fl. I just can't see Sanders doing as well in S. Florida with Hispanics and African Americans as some of the other Dem candidates would. The reason Fl elections were so close in the past had a lot to do with the way S. Florida voted.
In the least surprising news of the decade, Bernie's comments on "60 MInutes" where he seemed to praise Castro are not going over particularly well here in Miami. It is true that in context they're not as bad as the headline made them sound, but that's not really an excuse. He has to know that people are already suspicious of him, and even saying unobjectionable things that could be subject to misinterpretation is the kind of thing that can kill his campaign, especially with the Trump Death Star prepared to spend billions blasting him as a commie.
If I'm Donna Shalala, Debbie Mucarsel Powell or any other vulnerable FL Democrat, I'm praying nightly that Biden stages a comeback.
If I'm Donna Shalala, Debbie Mucarsel Powell or any other vulnerable FL Democrat, I'm praying nightly that Biden stages a comeback.
Punxsutawney Phil
Footballguy
This is why Trump isn't hiding the fact that he wants Bernie to win. He knows it will be a walk in the park. You win FL you win the racezftcg said:
I don't think that's true. The 2000 election cemented Florida's importance in everyone's brain, but it hasn't really been the tipping point state in any election since then.
If Democrats win back PA/MI/WI they win. If they lose WI but add AZ they win. Obviously, Florida would help, but in a scenario where they win FL the likelihood is they're doing well up and down the ballot and taking the Electoral College decisively.
That said, I certainly don't want to see Dems give up on Florida from the jump, particularly because, as I said, that would be disastrous for vulnerable House members and the FL Democratic Party as a whole.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
This is all very true. One other caveat I'd add to the states you mentioned is Virginia. It went much later into the night last time than people predicted. I don't know VA well enough statewide now to say what the odds are it could turn red with it being Bernie/Trump. There are only two polls and they show much different things. I do know there's been a lot of turmoil there since the state is now D held top to bottom and with the Northam/Fairfax stuff along with the gun control debate. Perhaps the population shift to the northern VA suburbs leave it blue, but Trump plays extremely well in western VA and if he can get some greater support in the suburbs it might be all he needs.
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I mean, with two wildcards like Trump and Bernie in the race a lot more scenarios become plausible. But I still imagine that in a scenario where Trump flips Virginia, he's having a very good night.
For the record, Hillary won VA by 5 points in 2016. There were five states (CO, ME, NV, MN, NH) that she won with closer margins. My guess is that if Trump is able to expand his map beyond 2016, MN is the first one to fall.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
Agreed. I don't think MN is "likely", but the fact that it's even mentioned is territory that at once was unthinkable. From the Trump side, I don't see CO and ME as likely. Now ME-2 I do think is likely 1 EV for Trump. NH was super close and NV was way closer than I thought it would be last time.
I do feel like Bernie, among all the Dem contenders, would probably have a good chance at winning back ME-2 (and would probably not lose MN, although I'm not particularly worried about that, again because in a scenario where Dems lose MN, they're definitely not flipping PA/MI/WI back).
By the way, I first learned of the concept of a "tipping point state" from Nate Silver. It's a very helpful way to analyze an election. This year, it's really looking like it will be Wisconsin.
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