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I give widespread masking about six more months, give or take. Mask compliance is already spotty now -- you can forget it once vaccines are widely available. I'm not going to listed to a random 2-hour podcast (obviously), but this sounds exactly like the please-click-this-link take I mentioned a couple of posts earlier.
The vaccines are great, but do not prevent infection or spread. So basically, without mask and social distancing, while the percentages for severe disease and death will be down, the volume will still be overwhelming. But who knows. Good listen though — not the host, the guest.
Keep an eye on Israel for the answer to this. Pfizer gave them a deal on the vaccine in return for data. As of a week ago, in a small study, there was optimism that it would reduce spread.
I think I heard this as it reduces spread, but won’t prevent it because the vaccine essentially isn’t attacking virus in the nose/throat.
[aimed at the podcasters, not Leeroy Jenkins]
I'm not sure that too much is being made of it. I think it is necessary for people to understand how vax does/does not work. Case in point, I have avoided some in my circle because I know them not to be safe in their conduct. I got a text saying they will be getting vaxed and we should get together soon. If their vax leaves me exposed to their conduct, obviously that's info I'll want to understand.
I understand what you're saying. You should text them back "Once I've gotten vaccinated, you're on!"
But apparently these vaccines don't prevent infection. But cuts the severity down to a cold or mild flu essentially. Less severe infection, means less viral load, which means reduction in spread. Totally. But this isn't going to be irradiated like the measles apparently.
Not what they said. The rate will be lower, but even if it were cut by 1/3, without masks etc., the numbers will still be high. It actually was pretty interesting.
Yeah, nobody is going to be wearing masks if we turn covid into something comparable to the common cold.
The vaccines won't help who as much? The individual vaccinated, or wider society?
All good ... we know you're not coming from an anti-vax stance.
I can't adequately explain -- I suggest that if you are curious about the vaccine and efficacy, that you listen to the podcast. This isn't a pod I typically listen to, but I really found it fascinating.
I checked the link (without listening yet) ... the host does helpfully give a list of main topics and where to find them in the 114-minute podcast.
It really depends on what Harrison conceives of as "herd immunity" -- does he mean "within a certain time frame" or "ever"? Does it mean the virus is virtually extinct like smallpox, or does his definition allow for a disease to still hang around in small numbers?
I don't agree. I think it'll be a minority, for sure, but I think public mask use will persist like in Asian countries. The stigma that used to be associated with it is gone.
Harrison does have a short self-published article on Substack that lays out his position on COVID vaccinations and how long masking, etc., will have to be maintained.
The highlighted parts are good points and I could see that level of care taken in the post-COVID future. Harrison is more pessimistic yet.
I'll openly admit that I just don't care about people who refuse to be vaccinated. If they get severe covid after a vaccine is widely available, that's on them. (I'm not angry at them or anything. If people opt against vaccination, that's their call. But I'm not at all interested in structuring society to accommodate them.)
Yes, this is where I am as well. During this current time period we must be careful. But once everyone who wants a vaccine has gotten one, and we're sitting on stockpiles just waiting for arms to go into, then society should go fully back to normal. No special protections for those who choose not to get one.
I don't mean to sound callous, but you could start by telling them not to go to a New Years Eve party. I hate hearing about so much sickness and death, but a lot of it could be avoided by simply following the guidance.
I just talked to a nursing home employee who was hospitalized with covid, her PCRs came up negative too.
Isn’t this just Darwinism then? If you’re stupid enough to refuse the vaccine, you’re the one in danger. They’re not really harming those of us who are getting the vaccine are they? It’ll just end up being a pandemic mostly limited to stupid people?
I think it will as well. Maybe not to the extent of asian countries. but it wont be seen as shocking. I travel alot and when i start traveling for work again i will be wearing a mask even though i previously would joke when i saw someone wearing one.
Well obviously they were going to gather regardless of any warnings we could have given. The enthusiasm for the vaccine among the elderly has been amazing. I’ve only come across a few people who weren’t desperately trying to get it. And general population too. The resident anti-vaxxer at work who regularly tries to get people not to take the flu vaccine, who’s family never wears a mask anywhere even wants to get it.I don't mean to sound callous, but you could start by telling them not to go to a New Years Eve party. I hate hearing about so much sickness and death, but a lot of it could be avoided by simply following the guidance.
Thanks for doing what you do.
Measles didn’t disappear right away after the vaccine was introduced in 1963, but cases dropped precipitously after a more potent version was released in 1968. It took another 22 years until it really flatlined with the addition of third booster to the recommended vaccination schedule, and vaccine coverage increasing from ~60 to 90+% of the population.
Like people taking up smoking just to expedite vaccination?E-Z Glider said:
Glad to hear everyone is OK. The problem with your last point is you weren't in public.
Exactly. So much transmission is happening through family gatherings like what you described.
I’m an electrician, I’ve worked every workday since the pandemic started, and my wife works at a daycare. Trust me, there’s every probability that I got exposed and am asymptomatic. Heck, I worked at a hospital this past summer, not near Covid patients, mind you, but still on the grounds.
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Bingo. Once the vaccine has widespread a availability I'm no longer wearing a mask.
There are lots of scientists who disagree with his take on vaccinated people being vectors of transmission.
You have so much more faith in the people of this country than I. I've seen little from the people in this country the past year or so to give me any sort of hope that they will suddenly begin to do the right thing. As a nation, we just don't have it in us collectively to think beyond ourselves.
