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48 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

Doctor's Farmacy - Vaccine Podcast

 

This podcast is very informative.  Short version -- get the vaccine, but we are still wearing a mask for a LONG time.  Ain't no 2019 normal to go back to.

I give widespread masking about six more months, give or take.  Mask compliance is already spotty now -- you can forget it once vaccines are widely available.  I'm not going to listed to a random 2-hour podcast (obviously), but this sounds exactly like the please-click-this-link take I mentioned a couple of posts earlier.

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My dad has been sick for a few weeks.  My mom called me today to say he was about to die.  I said some final words to him and he could hear me but was unable to respond.  He passed a short time later.

Not to derail anything, but we had our baby last night! She's doing amazingly well. Due to the hospital's pandemic policies, I had to leave her right after my wife was released from recovery. I can't

On a positive note, my wife gave birth to our first child this morning!! We were expecting our daughter to be born in the first week of April, which does not align very well if this hospital sees a ma

12 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

I give widespread masking about six more months, give or take.  Mask compliance is already spotty now -- you can forget it once vaccines are widely available.  I'm not going to listed to a random 2-hour podcast (obviously), but this sounds exactly like the please-click-this-link take I mentioned a couple of posts earlier.

He goes pretty deep into the various studies. 

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29 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

Clifford’s Notes?  Is this more due to those not getting vaccinated, the vaccines not being “good enough” or something else?

The vaccines are great, but do not prevent infection or spread. So basically, without mask and social distancing, while the percentages for severe disease and death will be down, the volume will still be overwhelming. But who knows. Good listen though — not the host, the guest. 
 

Basically the vaccines are really effective preventing spread from respiratory system into the blood stream, but you can still catch it and the virus still will colonize and replicate in the nasopharyngeal tissue. 

Edited by Leeroy Jenkins
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14 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

The vaccines are great, but do not prevent infection or spread. So basically, without mask and social distancing, while the percentages for severe disease and death will be down, the volume will still be overwhelming. But who knows. Good listen though — not the host, the guest. 
 

Basically the vaccines are really effective preventing spread from respiratory system into the blood stream, but you can still catch it and the virus still will colonize and replicate in the nasopharyngeal tissue. 

Keep an eye on Israel for the answer to this. Pfizer gave them a deal on the vaccine in return for data. As of a week ago, in a small study, there was optimism that it would reduce spread.

 

Peter Weber

January 20, 2021

The COVID-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech is 95 percent effective at protecting against infection, large human trials found, but there is no conclusive evidence yet that the vaccines prevent transmission of the new coronavirus. "Early findings from Oxford/AstraZeneca revealed its vaccine could have some effect on transmitting the virus, while similar results have also been reported by Pfizer/BioNTech," Reuters reports. But "scientists do not yet know whether COVID-19 vaccinations will reduce transmission because this was not tested in the trials."

A new study from Israel's Sheba Medical Center in Tel Hashomer suggested that the Pfizer vaccine does, in fact, reduce transmission. The small study of 102 medical workers found that after the second dose of the vaccine, 100 of the subjects had significantly higher levels of antibodies than even people who recovered from severe COVID-19 infections, The Jerusalem Post reports.

"The results of the survey are in line with Pfizer's experiment and even better than expected," said Prof. Gili Regev-Yochay, director of Sheba's Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit. "I expect that the survey results of the other employees participating will be similar. There is certainly reason for optimism." It isn't clear how long immunity will last, and the results are preliminary, but Regev-Yochay said it appears to her that fully vaccinate people won't shed the virus, meaning they won't pass it on to others.

https://news.yahoo.com/israeli-study-suggests-pfizer-covid-143104894.html

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25 minutes ago, ericttspikes said:

Keep an eye on Israel for the answer to this. Pfizer gave them a deal on the vaccine in return for data. As of a week ago, in a small study, there was optimism that it would reduce spread.

 

Peter Weber

January 20, 2021

The COVID-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech is 95 percent effective at protecting against infection, large human trials found, but there is no conclusive evidence yet that the vaccines prevent transmission of the new coronavirus. "Early findings from Oxford/AstraZeneca revealed its vaccine could have some effect on transmitting the virus, while similar results have also been reported by Pfizer/BioNTech," Reuters reports. But "scientists do not yet know whether COVID-19 vaccinations will reduce transmission because this was not tested in the trials."

A new study from Israel's Sheba Medical Center in Tel Hashomer suggested that the Pfizer vaccine does, in fact, reduce transmission. The small study of 102 medical workers found that after the second dose of the vaccine, 100 of the subjects had significantly higher levels of antibodies than even people who recovered from severe COVID-19 infections, The Jerusalem Post reports.

"The results of the survey are in line with Pfizer's experiment and even better than expected," said Prof. Gili Regev-Yochay, director of Sheba's Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit. "I expect that the survey results of the other employees participating will be similar. There is certainly reason for optimism." It isn't clear how long immunity will last, and the results are preliminary, but Regev-Yochay said it appears to her that fully vaccinate people won't shed the virus, meaning they won't pass it on to others.

https://news.yahoo.com/israeli-study-suggests-pfizer-covid-143104894.html

I think I heard this as it reduces spread, but won’t prevent it because the vaccine essentially isn’t attacking virus in the nose/throat. 

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45 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

The vaccines are great, but do not prevent infection or spread (LJ quoting a podcast - db)

[aimed at the podcasters, not Leeroy Jenkins]

IMHO ... FAR too much is being made of this. The vaccine is not supposed to "prevent infection and spread" in society ... it's supposed to prevent infection in the individual who gets the vaccine.

So, it takes the accumulation of individual actions and a critical mass to be reached. At a point, fewer infected people does, in fact, lower collective infection and spread among a populace. The virus doesn't have agency to spread on it's own and it won't spread by magic.

[/aimed at the podcasters, not Leeroy Jenkins]

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4 minutes ago, Doug B said:

[aimed at the podcasters, not Leeroy Jenkins]

IMHO ... FAR too much is being made of this. The vaccine is not supposed to "prevent infection and spread" in society ... it's supposed to prevent infection in the individual who gets the vaccine.

So, it takes the accumulation of individual actions and a critical mass to be reached. At a point, fewer infected people does, in fact, lower collective infection and spread among a populace. The virus doesn't have agency to spread on it's own and it won't spread by magic.

[/aimed at the podcasters, not Leeroy Jenkins]

I'm not sure that too much is being made of it. I think it is necessary for people to understand how vax does/does not work. Case in point, I have avoided some in my circle because I know them not to be safe in their conduct. I got a text saying they will be getting vaxed and we should get together soon. If their vax leaves me exposed to their conduct, obviously that's info I'll want to understand.

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3 minutes ago, BigJim® said:

I'm not sure that too much is being made of it. I think it is necessary for people to understand how vax does/does not work. Case in point, I have avoided some in my circle because I know them not to be safe in their conduct. I got a text saying they will be getting vaxed and we should get together soon. If their vax leaves me exposed to their conduct, obviously that's info I'll want to understand.

I understand what you're saying. You should text them back "Once I've gotten vaccinated, you're on!"

What it sounded like the podcasters were saying (didn't listen to it) was that COVID would keep spreading exactly as if the vaccines did not exist, not matter how many people get vaccinated. I believe that to be wrong.

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15 minutes ago, Doug B said:

[aimed at the podcasters, not Leeroy Jenkins]

IMHO ... FAR too much is being made of this. The vaccine is not supposed to "prevent infection and spread" in society ... it's supposed to prevent infection in the individual who gets the vaccine.

So, it takes the accumulation of individual actions and a critical mass to be reached. At a point, fewer infected people does, in fact, lower collective infection and spread among a populace. The virus doesn't have agency to spread on it's own and it won't spread by magic.

[/aimed at the podcasters, not Leeroy Jenkins]

But apparently these vaccines don't prevent infection.  But cuts the severity down to a cold or mild flu essentially.  Less severe infection, means less viral load, which means reduction in spread.  Totally.  But this isn't going to be irradiated like the measles apparently.  

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Just now, Doug B said:

I understand what you're saying. You should text them back "Once I've gotten vaccinated, you're on!"

What it sounded like the podcasters were saying (didn't listen to it) was that COVID would keep spreading exactly as if the vaccines did not exist, not matter how many people get vaccinated. I believe that to be wrong.

Not what they said.  The rate will be lower, but even if it were cut by 1/3, without masks etc., the numbers will still be high.  It actually was pretty interesting.

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2 minutes ago, Doug B said:

What it sounded like the podcasters were saying (didn't listen to it) was that COVID would keep spreading exactly as if the vaccines did not exist, not matter how many people get vaccinated. I believe that to be wrong.

Ahh, got it. Yeah that seems wrong.

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Please do not confuse me as an anti-vaxer.  Neither was this guy -- he said he was getting the vaccine.  And that once he got it he would travel again, go to restaurants, and maybe some music venues.  But that the vaccine wasn't a bulletproof vest and that masks will still be necessary or the vaccines won't help as much, or we will need something like 90%+ penetration, which isn't going to happen.  

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12 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

But apparently these vaccines don't prevent infection.  But cuts the severity down to a cold or mild flu essentially.  Less severe infection, means less viral load, which means reduction in spread.  Totally.  But this isn't going to be irradiated like the measles apparently.  

Yeah, nobody is going to be wearing masks if we turn covid into something comparable to the common cold.

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2 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

But that the vaccine wasn't a bulletproof vest and that masks will still be necessary or the vaccines won't help as much, or we will need something like 90%+ penetration, which isn't going to happen.  

The vaccines won't help who as much? The individual vaccinated, or wider society?

After a point, "vaccinated America" can't really do anything to help those who refuse to get vaccinated. Vaccine-refusers will be on their own when vaccinated people go back to 2019 levels of masking. There will be a period of grace, yes ... several months to a year, even, so that everyone essentially has a fair chance to get vaccinated. But beyond that?

I can get on board with an East Asian masking ethic, where "hardworking" people don't go unmasked into the public hacking away freely while sick. That's about as far as anyone can expect masking to go in the future, and even that much probably won't happen.

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12 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

Please do not confuse me as an anti-vaxer.  Neither was this guy -- he said he was getting the vaccine.  And that once he got it he would travel again, go to restaurants, and maybe some music venues.  But that the vaccine wasn't a bulletproof vest and that masks will still be necessary or the vaccines won't help as much, or we will need something like 90%+ penetration, which isn't going to happen.  

All good ... we know you're not coming from an anti-vax stance.

I really don't have time to give this (or really any) podcast a listen -- was the guy saying masking for COVID will or should just be a permanent thing in American society? Or just that it should go on for an long but finite period (like, 3-5 years)?

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5 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Yeah, nobody is going to be wearing masks if we turn covid into something comparable to the common cold.

I can't adequately explain -- I suggest that if you are curious about the vaccine and efficacy, that you listen to the podcast.  This isn't a pod I typically listen to, but I really found it fascinating.  

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2 hours ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

Doctor's Farmacy - Vaccine Podcast

This podcast is very informative. 

I checked the link (without listening yet) ... the host does helpfully give a list of main topics and where to find them in the 114-minute podcast.

One of topics presented by the guest, biotech executive Dale Harrison, is listed as:

Quote

The four things needed to achieve herd immunity and why Dale does not think it is realistic to think we will reach it (1:02:23)

It really depends on what Harrison conceives of as "herd immunity" -- does he mean "within a certain time frame" or "ever"? Does it mean the virus is virtually extinct like smallpox, or does his definition allow for a disease to still hang around in small numbers?

If Harrison believes that a given society (or even humanity as a whole) will never reach the "small numbers" level of herd immunity, IMHO he's wrong. Humans achieve this level of herd immunity naturally, without modern medicine, masks, or anything -- though the cost in lives is, of course, huge. Vaccines and other interventions get you to the same place over time without the huge loss of life.

...

EDIT: Started listening at 1:02:23. Harrison throws measles, smallpox, and polio into the same "herd immunity" hat. IMHO, he's off there -- measles and polio still do exist in small numbers yet vaccinations against them do support a society-wide herd immunity. Smallpox, on the other hand, no longer exists "in the wild" ... only "in captivity", in the form of research samples at a handful of labs worldwide.

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I am somewhat concerned that Dale Harrison has been on a good number of podcasts and YouTube videos, but several minutes of searching has pulled up practically nothing from Harrison in written-word media. That may well be an unfair prejudice.

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54 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Yeah, nobody is going to be wearing masks if we turn covid into something comparable to the common cold.

I don't agree.  I think it'll be a minority, for sure, but I think public mask use will persist like in Asian countries.  The stigma that used to be associated with it is gone. 

I mentioned this already, but I'm hopeful that a not insignificant portion of the general populace has learned to 1)  stay home when sick 2) wash hands often 3) keep distance and mask up if out and sick.  If we can follow those simple asks as a society, we will decrease the spread of many viruses and reduce cost/burden to healthcare and workforce expenses.

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41 minutes ago, Doug B said:

I am somewhat concerned that Dale Harrison has been on a good number of podcasts and YouTube videos, but several minutes of searching has pulled up practically nothing from Harrison in written-word media. That may well be an unfair prejudice.

Harrison does have a short self-published article on Substack that lays out his position on COVID vaccinations and how long masking, etc., will have to be maintained.

I would like to research more on his points when time allows. The TL;DR version is that while he believes in vaccines and all that ... he thinks too few Americans will get vaccinated and the refusers will keep COVID alive and common in the US population for years to come. He believes in the next several years, most Americans will get re-infected with COVID-19 once or twice a year -- if vaccinated, no big deal ... if not, well.

Basically, he's highly pessimistic about how the COVID pandemic resolves in the US. I don't see where his views are consensus among researchers ... but to be fair, he doesn't present them that way.

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4 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

I don't agree.  I think it'll be a minority, for sure, but I think public mask use will persist like in Asian countries.  The stigma that used to be associated with it is gone. 

I mentioned this already, but I'm hopeful that a not insignificant portion of the general populace has learned to 1) stay home when sick 2) wash hands often 3) keep distance and mask up if out and sick.  If we can follow those simple asks as a society, we will decrease the spread of many viruses and reduce cost/burden to healthcare and workforce expenses.

The highlighted parts are good points and I could see that level of care taken in the post-COVID future. Harrison is more pessimistic yet.

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1 hour ago, Doug B said:

The vaccines won't help who as much? The individual vaccinated, or wider society?

After a point, "vaccinated America" can't really do anything to help those who refuse to get vaccinated. Vaccine-refusers will be on their own when vaccinated people go back to 2019 levels of masking. There will be a period of grace, yes ... several months to a year, even, so that everyone essentially has a fair chance to get vaccinated. But beyond that?

I can get on board with an East Asian masking ethic, where "hardworking" people don't go unmasked into the public hacking away freely while sick. That's about as far as anyone can expect masking to go in the future, and even that much probably won't happen.

Probably will be wearing a mask in a crowded indoor setting for the rest of my life. 

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Update on my Son. He was positive on Monday. His wife and the 3yr old tested positive yesterday. Mom and grandson are both sick, but ok. She lost her taste and smell. Grandson was feeling better today, puking yesterday. The granddaughter is 1 1/2 and tested negative for now. Considering she can't pick herself up and feed herself, I'm guessing it is only a matter of time until she gets it. 

4 people in one house, 3 (most likely 4 by the time it is done) positive. When my youngest son (who lives with me) came up positive, my wife and I avoided it. The two different factors is that in our house the person who got it slept alone. Obviously my son and his wife share a room. Once he was positive he quarantined in the bedroom, her and the kids slept downstairs. But he was in the bed with her the night before he tested positive. The second factor is they only have one bath. Where we had 2. Our son here had full use of the upstairs bathroom and we used the downstairs one until he was clear. 

Unrelated note, I have been instructed to return onsite Monday. Apparently our WFH due to the SECOND major outbreak at our company is over. Old school mentality that you can't be doing anything if you aren't at your desk. :wall:

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38 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Harrison does have a short self-published article on Substack that lays out his position on COVID vaccinations and how long masking, etc., will have to be maintained.

I would like to research more on his points when time allows. The TL;DR version is that while he believes in vaccines and all that ... he thinks too few Americans will get vaccinated and the refusers will keep COVID alive and common in the US population for years to come. He believes in the next several years, most Americans will get re-infected with COVID-19 once or twice a year -- if vaccinated, no big deal ... if not, well.

Basically, he's highly pessimistic about how the COVID pandemic resolves in the US. I don't see where his views are consensus among researchers ... but to be fair, he doesn't present them that way.

I'll openly admit that I just don't care about people who refuse to be vaccinated.  If they get severe covid after a vaccine is widely available, that's on them.  (I'm not angry at them or anything.  If people opt against vaccination, that's their call.  But I'm not at all interested in structuring society to accommodate them.)

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20 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

I'll openly admit that I just don't care about people who refuse to be vaccinated.  If they get severe covid after a vaccine is widely available, that's on them.  (I'm not angry at them or anything.  If people opt against vaccination, that's their call.  But I'm not at all interested in structuring society to accommodate them.)

Yes, this is where I am as well. During this current time period we must be careful.  But once everyone who wants a vaccine has gotten one, and we're sitting on stockpiles just waiting for arms to go into, then society should go fully back to normal. No special protections for those who choose not to get one.

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South Africa reports 6,141 new cases today, 1,000 less than yesterday and continuing its rapid descent.

I'm still not understanding what the WHO is talking about when it comes out today and says:

‘Fueling Africa’s second wave’

The World Health Organization warned Thursday that more contagious variants of Covid-19 are “fueling Africa’s second wave” and the variant first identified in South Africa “is predominant and powering record case numbers in South Africa and the sub-region.”

According to the WHO, the B.1.351 strain has now been identified in in Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, the French Indian Ocean region of Mayotte, Zambia and 24 other non-African nations. As of Monday, Coronavirus infections in the region have grown by 50% since Dec. 29 when compared with the previous four weeks, the WHO said. Covid-19 deaths have also been on the rise, roughly doubling over that same period.

The numbers I see don't seem to align with that at all. Like many other countries, Africa looks to have experienced a second wave in late Nov/early Dec. As of today South Africa: trending way down. Botswana: trending down. Ghana: small spike, flat but maybe trending up?, Kenya: trending way down. Mayotte: seems like a spike, uneven reporting but looks flat to down, Zambia: looks like it got a later start, the midst of a second wave, 7 day average down to flat, could reverse up?

If I were in Africa looking at the US cases, I think I'd be more worried of importing the US variant. I don't doubt the fear from the CDC and the WHO about the South African variant, I'm just not seeing it impacting Africa any worse than Europe or the US. Maybe they have different numbers?

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15 hours ago, Biff84 said:

Did a COVID shot clinic at the retirement community near me. Extremely rewarding experience but the stories I heard were heartbreaking. I’d guess that it was close to half who told me that they knew a close friend who passed away from it. Several had lost their spouse. At the end of the day I was talking to some of younger staff (50s) and they told me more stories of staff members they lost. The worse story was a New Years Eve party attended by 6 couples. Everyone got COVID, 6 people died, 2 are in the ICU and the ones that are at home are in bad shape. It’s got me trying to figure out how I can help them even more.

I don't mean to sound callous, but you could start by telling them not to go to a New Years Eve party. I hate hearing about so much sickness and death, but a lot of it could be avoided by simply following the guidance.

Thanks for doing what you do. 👍

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On 1/28/2021 at 9:28 AM, Dezbelief said:
On 1/28/2021 at 9:13 AM, jamny said:

guess you didn't get tested?

Doesn't the CDC recommend not getting the vaccine until 3 months after having the virus or is that just due to supply?

I had two negative PCR (15 minute) tests. I was diagnosed with an upper respiratory infection but now think it was a misdiagnosis. I had a blood draw for an antibody test, at the same time as my second PCR and diagnosis, that came up positive. My symptoms were more aligned with a covid infection. I first had fatigue, then shortness of breath, body aches and kidney pain. I never had a cough, fever or any loss of taste or smell

I just talked to a nursing home employee who was hospitalized with covid, her PCRs came up negative too.

Edit 

She was infected in October and said her mind was still in a fog. She said she doesn't remember Thanksgiving or Christmas. She was in the hospital for 9 days, received treatments of convalescent plasma and remdesivir. She was part of the activities department. When covid hit the city the nursing home put itself on lockdown. All their activities were shutdown. The nursing home put her on aide duty at that time. Everyone had their hall they were assigned to and didn't work on other halls. She said they did their best to keep covid out. They kept it out for 5 months after it hit the community but when covid hit it swept through one hall after another. She said one person wasn't getting it, whole halls at a time were. 

I would have gotten more information but our conversation was cut short. 

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4 hours ago, Doug B said:

Harrison does have a short self-published article on Substack that lays out his position on COVID vaccinations and how long masking, etc., will have to be maintained.

I would like to research more on his points when time allows. The TL;DR version is that while he believes in vaccines and all that ... he thinks too few Americans will get vaccinated and the refusers will keep COVID alive and common in the US population for years to come. He believes in the next several years, most Americans will get re-infected with COVID-19 once or twice a year -- if vaccinated, no big deal ... if not, well.

Basically, he's highly pessimistic about how the COVID pandemic resolves in the US. I don't see where his views are consensus among researchers ... but to be fair, he doesn't present them that way.

Isn’t this just Darwinism then? If you’re stupid enough to refuse the vaccine, you’re the one in danger. They’re not really harming those of us who are getting the vaccine are they? It’ll just end up being a pandemic mostly limited to stupid people?

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Well there are some people that cannot take the vaccine, for example under 16 years old (for now). While the numbers are small, a severe COVID infection could be debilitating or fatal. More community transmission = more likelihood that those that cannot (not will not) take a vax have a bad outcome. 

Same thing goes for measles though too. If herd immunity drops, those that cannot get a vaccine become susceptible to an infection through community transmission. 

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6 hours ago, gianmarco said:

I don't agree.  I think it'll be a minority, for sure, but I think public mask use will persist like in Asian countries.  The stigma that used to be associated with it is gone. 

I mentioned this already, but I'm hopeful that a not insignificant portion of the general populace has learned to 1)  stay home when sick 2) wash hands often 3) keep distance and mask up if out and sick.  If we can follow those simple asks as a society, we will decrease the spread of many viruses and reduce cost/burden to healthcare and workforce expenses.

I think it will as well.  Maybe not to the extent of asian countries.  but it wont be seen as shocking.  I travel alot and when i start traveling for work again i will be wearing a mask even though i previously would joke when i saw someone wearing one. 

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9 hours ago, humpback said:

I don't mean to sound callous, but you could start by telling them not to go to a New Years Eve party. I hate hearing about so much sickness and death, but a lot of it could be avoided by simply following the guidance.

Thanks for doing what you do. 👍

Well obviously they were going to gather regardless of any warnings we could have given. The enthusiasm for the vaccine among the elderly has been amazing. I’ve only come across a few people who weren’t desperately trying to get it. And general population too. The resident anti-vaxxer at work who regularly tries to get people not to take the flu vaccine, who’s family never wears a mask anywhere even wants to get it.

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Boy oh boy do I have an update for you guys! I spent New Year’s Eve with my wife’s family, a week later 4 different people(her parents and sister/brother in law)have Covid symptoms, fever, coughing, the works. They’re all doing better now, but for the life of me, I can’t figure out how nobody in my house got sick! We were all obviously exposed, and since I was the only one to arrive late(I had to work on the 31st, while everybody was together for that week prior), I can’t help but feel like Typhoid Mary, like I brought it into the house. 
 

Silver lining, everyone’s doing well now, just a few coughs), but a great reason to remind everyone to wear a mask in public!

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On 1/29/2021 at 9:50 AM, Leeroy Jenkins said:

But apparently these vaccines don't prevent infection.  But cuts the severity down to a cold or mild flu essentially.  Less severe infection, means less viral load, which means reduction in spread.  Totally.  But this isn't going to be irradiated like the measles apparently.  

Measles didn’t disappear right away after the vaccine was introduced in 1963, but cases dropped precipitously after a more potent version was released in 1968. It took another 22 years until it really flatlined with the addition of third booster to the recommended vaccination schedule, and vaccine coverage increasing from ~60 to 90+% of the population.

Hopefully we adopt some semblance of mask use for the foreseeable future, perhaps based on rates of SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses in the community. Even if that doesn’t happen, when enough people are vaccinated, the decrease in severe disease and transmissibility should allow some semblance of normalcy mid-late 2021 IMO.

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On 1/28/2021 at 7:57 AM, E-Z Glider said:

They are just pushing it out as fast as possible, which is the right idea. Unfortunately, it also means that people with no moral compass will be able to weasel their way ahead of other deserving people. Its a big project and won't be perfect by any stretch. Burying it with additional red-tape is not the answer though.

Like people taking up smoking just to expedite vaccination?

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2 hours ago, Kal El said:

Boy oh boy do I have an update for you guys! I spent New Year’s Eve with my wife’s family, a week later 4 different people(her parents and sister/brother in law)have Covid symptoms, fever, coughing, the works. They’re all doing better now, but for the life of me, I can’t figure out how nobody in my house got sick! We were all obviously exposed, and since I was the only one to arrive late(I had to work on the 31st, while everybody was together for that week prior), I can’t help but feel like Typhoid Mary, like I brought it into the house. 
 

Silver lining, everyone’s doing well now, just a few coughs), but a great reason to remind everyone to wear a mask in public!

Glad to hear everyone is OK. The problem with your last point is you weren't in public. 

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11 minutes ago, jobarules said:

Glad to hear everyone is OK. The problem with your last point is you weren't in public. 

Exactly.  So much transmission is happening through family gatherings like what you described.  

Extended time, enclosed space, no masks, lots of talking, little distance between people = bad recipe

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15 minutes ago, jobarules said:

Glad to hear everyone is OK. The problem with your last point is you weren't in public. 

I’m an electrician, I’ve worked every workday since the pandemic started, and my wife works at a daycare. Trust me, there’s every probability that I got exposed and am asymptomatic. Heck, I worked at a hospital this past summer, not near Covid patients, mind you, but still on the grounds.

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25 minutes ago, Kal El said:

I’m an electrician, I’ve worked every workday since the pandemic started, and my wife works at a daycare. Trust me, there’s every probability that I got exposed and am asymptomatic. Heck, I worked at a hospital this past summer, not near Covid patients, mind you, but still on the grounds.

Did you wear a mask during those occasions?

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18 hours ago, Doug B said:

The vaccines won't help who as much? The individual vaccinated, or wider society?

After a point, "vaccinated America" can't really do anything to help those who refuse to get vaccinated. Vaccine-refusers will be on their own when vaccinated people go back to 2019 levels of masking. There will be a period of grace, yes ... several months to a year, even, so that everyone essentially has a fair chance to get vaccinated. But beyond that?

I can get on board with an East Asian masking ethic, where "hardworking" people don't go unmasked into the public hacking away freely while sick. That's about as far as anyone can expect masking to go in the future, and even that much probably won't happen.

Bingo. Once the vaccine has widespread a availability I'm no longer wearing a mask.

Guessing there's 90%+ overlap between anti-Vaxxers and anti-maskers, so don't Forsee it being an issue 

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17 hours ago, Doug B said:

Harrison does have a short self-published article on Substack that lays out his position on COVID vaccinations and how long masking, etc., will have to be maintained.

I would like to research more on his points when time allows. The TL;DR version is that while he believes in vaccines and all that ... he thinks too few Americans will get vaccinated and the refusers will keep COVID alive and common in the US population for years to come. He believes in the next several years, most Americans will get re-infected with COVID-19 once or twice a year -- if vaccinated, no big deal ... if not, well.

Basically, he's highly pessimistic about how the COVID pandemic resolves in the US. I don't see where his views are consensus among researchers ... but to be fair, he doesn't present them that way.

There are lots of scientists who disagree with his take on vaccinated people being vectors of transmission. 
 

Science isn't concrete either way, but I find it hard to believe it's non-sterilizing immunity. If antibodies are blocking the protein spike from binding to our cells, how is it entering our cells and replicating rampantly enough for sufficient viral load to shed? 
 

We shall see 

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17 hours ago, gianmarco said:

I mentioned this already, but I'm hopeful that a not insignificant portion of the general populace has learned to 1)  stay home when sick 2) wash hands often 3) keep distance and mask up if out and sick.  If we can follow those simple asks as a society, we will decrease the spread of many viruses and reduce cost/burden to healthcare and workforce expenses.

You have so much more faith in the people of this country than I. I've seen little from the people in this country the past year or so to give me any sort of hope that they will suddenly begin to do the right thing. As a nation, we just don't have it in us collectively to think beyond ourselves.

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