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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread


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25 minutes ago, worrierking said:

We haven't had one of these for a while.  Israeli hospital says they have found a cure for patients with moderate to severe COVID-19 ...

All of these have been found to be untrue in the past, but what the heck, let's keep hoping.

I'm not usually motivated to hop on this kind of thing ... but as you realize, Israeli COVID reporting has been pretty abysmal. I don't know if it's their popular press pumping up everything on the merest wisp of positive data or what -- but if half the stuff Israel was supposed to have developed actually panned out, the pandemic would've lasted about three months.

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My dad has been sick for a few weeks.  My mom called me today to say he was about to die.  I said some final words to him and he could hear me but was unable to respond.  He passed a short time later.

Not to derail anything, but we had our baby last night! She's doing amazingly well. Due to the hospital's pandemic policies, I had to leave her right after my wife was released from recovery. I can't

On a positive note, my wife gave birth to our first child this morning!! We were expecting our daughter to be born in the first week of April, which does not align very well if this hospital sees a ma

16 minutes ago, Doug B said:

I'm not usually motivated to hop on this kind of thing ... but as you realize, Israeli COVID reporting has been pretty abysmal. I don't know if it's their popular press pumping up everything on the merest wisp of positive data or what -- but if half the stuff Israel was supposed to have developed actually panned out, the pandemic would've lasted about three months.

I know!  They had at least 10-12 of these from Israel in the first few months.  If this were a story in the US I would think it was motivated by the clickbait mentality of our press.  There it's more like a PR campaign.  

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Is One Dose Of The Vaccine Enough For People With Evidence Of Prior Coronavirus Infection? New Impressive Data Sheds Light

A preprint study, but interesting for sure and if proven, could mean more vaccine available for more people. 

tl;dr: Studies indicating that one dose of vaccine for those previously infected may actually serve as a "booster" for their immunity, and they may not need a second shot. That booster, along with the previous infection, effectively IS their second dose.

Obviously they'd need to feel out all the possibilities there, (asymptomatic, light symptoms, heavy symptoms, etc.) but that could be a great thing. 

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I just got word from HR that our health clinic will be getting 50 doses of the Moderna vaccine per week.  I'm not at the front of the line (I don't quite qualify under current guidelines from the Governor), but I should be able to get the vaccine as soon as they open it to essential government employees.  I stayed through two hurricanes, so I consider myself essential!

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My father in Los Angeles and his wife got their 1st dose on Wednesday.  My mother in law got hers today. 

My son (7 years old) was vomiting last night and had a big headache.  He has had headaches for the last few months.   His exposure is pretty low since he and his twin sister are 100% virtual.  He has a COVID test tomorrow.  I'd be very surprised if it comes back positive.  More likely, he's got migraine headaches and maybe a stomach bug. 

🤞

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25 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

My father in Los Angeles and his wife got their 1st dose on Wednesday.  My mother in law got hers today. 

My son (7 years old) was vomiting last night and had a big headache.  He has had headaches for the last few months.   His exposure is pretty low since he and his twin sister are 100% virtual.  He has a COVID test tomorrow.  I'd be very surprised if it comes back positive.  More likely, he's got migraine headaches and maybe a stomach bug. 

🤞

Migraines can cause vomiting, sorry to hear your son has them.

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28 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

And now his twin sister just vomitted... not sure that's a good or bad sign. 

But it's gonna be a long night. 

Ugh sorry to hear it but definitely sounds like they have stomach viruses. 

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10 hours ago, jobarules said:

Ugh sorry to hear it but definitely sounds like they have stomach viruses. 

And this morning they woke up with low grade fevers. They slept in my room last night so I could deal with the vomiting (parenting is so cool). My wife slept in the den since it was "my turn".

I've covered up the return air vent in the bedroom, opened up a window. Crossing my fingers it's not COVID.

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My 78 year old mother just found out yesterday she finally got scheduled for her first dose next week. She's been on every list here since the start, but unfortunately our state has been awful in getting doses out. Glad she finally got the call.

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Both kids tested this morning at 10:30.  Kids have been in isolation in my bedroom since.  Everyone masked up in the house including wife in N95.

Results just came in: negative. 

Whew.

Didn't stop my son from booting all over his mattress and my bedroom floor. Cleanup on Aisle 4!  Gross.  That's why I left a bowl for you, buddy!

But I'll take a 48 hour GI bug over COVID any day.  Now let's see if I start blowing chunks in the next day or two. 

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Got a call from a nurse friend administering doses at Cal State Northridge that due to some issue, there were expected to be 200 doses left over at the end of today's appointments and to hurry over. Once the cases are opened they only have a limited timeframe to be administered or spoil, and the supervisor told her to get the word out to get people over there to get dosed.

So I race over there and hit a mile-long line of cars. Waited for a while, then got turned around by police, being told they were out. Texted my nurse friend and she says "no, come in, there's no one here and we have all the doses ready." I tell her "There's literally a police roadblock and a thousand cars being U-turned." She says "No, really, we're all here waiting and not a single person in line." But since I'm not in the mood to ram a SWAT van out of the way, I just go back home.

She filled me in later... when the police chief heard there were leftover doses, he decided they would all go to law enforcement. 

 

I don't mind them getting shots ahead of me, of course, I sit at a desk all day and they're facing the public. But I wish it was administered better or more clearly. Or if there were rules about whether cops can just commandeer the vaccine or what on some chief's authority.

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On 2/5/2021 at 10:19 PM, Pip's Invitation said:

My mom (turns 77 on Sunday) got her first shot today. 

I also found out today that my stepmother (age 77) got her first shot a few days ago. 

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2 hours ago, shades said:

Got a call from a nurse friend administering doses at Cal State Northridge that due to some issue, there were expected to be 200 doses left over at the end of today's appointments and to hurry over. Once the cases are opened they only have a limited timeframe to be administered or spoil, and the supervisor told her to get the word out to get people over there to get dosed.

So I race over there and hit a mile-long line of cars. Waited for a while, then got turned around by police, being told they were out. Texted my nurse friend and she says "no, come in, there's no one here and we have all the doses ready." I tell her "There's literally a police roadblock and a thousand cars being U-turned." She says "No, really, we're all here waiting and not a single person in line." But since I'm not in the mood to ram a SWAT van out of the way, I just go back home.

She filled me in later... when the police chief heard there were leftover doses, he decided they would all go to law enforcement. 

 

I don't mind them getting shots ahead of me, of course, I sit at a desk all day and they're facing the public. But I wish it was administered better or more clearly. Or if there were rules about whether cops can just commandeer the vaccine or what on some chief's authority.

I wonder how many shots went to waste while the police were abusing their power.

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16 hours ago, The Z Machine said:

Both kids tested this morning at 10:30.  Kids have been in isolation in my bedroom since.  Everyone masked up in the house including wife in N95.

Results just came in: negative. 

Whew.

Didn't stop my son from booting all over his mattress and my bedroom floor. Cleanup on Aisle 4!  Gross.  That's why I left a bowl for you, buddy!

But I'll take a 48 hour GI bug over COVID any day.  Now let's see if I start blowing chunks in the next day or two. 

The best part of this pandemic is kids avoiding getting sick and bringing it home. What happened?!

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13 hours ago, shades said:

Got a call from a nurse friend administering doses at Cal State Northridge that due to some issue, there were expected to be 200 doses left over at the end of today's appointments and to hurry over. Once the cases are opened they only have a limited timeframe to be administered or spoil, and the supervisor told her to get the word out to get people over there to get dosed.

So I race over there and hit a mile-long line of cars. Waited for a while, then got turned around by police, being told they were out. Texted my nurse friend and she says "no, come in, there's no one here and we have all the doses ready." I tell her "There's literally a police roadblock and a thousand cars being U-turned." She says "No, really, we're all here waiting and not a single person in line." But since I'm not in the mood to ram a SWAT van out of the way, I just go back home.

She filled me in later... when the police chief heard there were leftover doses, he decided they would all go to law enforcement. 

 

I don't mind them getting shots ahead of me, of course, I sit at a desk all day and they're facing the public. But I wish it was administered better or more clearly. Or if there were rules about whether cops can just commandeer the vaccine or what on some chief's authority.

1. #%%* that! To not have the communication between the person giving the shots and the person restricting access. I’ve had to get rid of around a dozen doses in a short period of time and that was stressful. I can’t imagine having 200 doses and someone blocking the long line.

2. Police and first responders should be near the top of the list but everything dependent on the state priority groups.

3. Clearly this was a time sensitive situation and while you want to prioritize high risk people, there comes a point where you just give it to anyone to avoid it going to waste. If any of those doses got wasted, there should be serious consequences.

4. My guess is someone in the police department heard about it and pulled strings with a higher up at the hospital and no one told the people responsible for giving the shots.

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5 hours ago, The Z Machine said:

And why weren't these first responders vaccinated already?

Saying they were reserved for law enforcement doesn't mean the same as first responders.

Could be anyone police related. Heck maybe secretaries for all I know. 

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6 hours ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

The best part of this pandemic is kids avoiding getting sick and bringing it home. What happened?!

No freakin' clue.  Like I said, they have a nanny that takes care of them during the day, makes their lunch, etc.  Maybe something she made that they ate?  It seems to have passed thankfully and neither I nor my wife have gotten ill.

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6 hours ago, Biff84 said:

1. #%%* that! To not have the communication between the person giving the shots and the person restricting access. I’ve had to get rid of around a dozen doses in a short period of time and that was stressful. I can’t imagine having 200 doses and someone blocking the long line.

2. Police and first responders should be near the top of the list but everything dependent on the state priority groups.

3. Clearly this was a time sensitive situation and while you want to prioritize high risk people, there comes a point where you just give it to anyone to avoid it going to waste. If any of those doses got wasted, there should be serious consequences.

4. My guess is someone in the police department heard about it and pulled strings with a higher up at the hospital and no one told the people responsible for giving the shots.

Cal State Northridge isn't a hospital, it's a state university.  I bet the county is using it as a mass vaccinate site.

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59 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

Cal State Northridge isn't a hospital, it's a state university.  I bet the county is using it as a mass vaccinate site.

I used to live right across the street from the CSUN sculpture (that is now a center for the arts). My old house is now a  Papa Johns. Crazy to look at it on google earth. 

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Stuff is getting so good in Texas that deaths accounted for the decline in hospital capacity this week. Let that sink in.  We added so few hospital cases that we put more people out in body bags than we admitted.  

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3 hours ago, The Z Machine said:

Cal State Northridge isn't a hospital, it's a state university.  I bet the county is using it as a mass vaccinate site.

Sorry misread it. I’m sure it’s either a POD site or a hub that supplies a lot of clinics. When we’ve had leftover doses it’s usually due to a clinic having a bad showing or someone messed up the storage requirements.

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I apologize for this question since I know it has probably been answered, but I have not kept up with this thread

How long after getting the second dose do people generally start to feel achy or sick. My appointment is today. They said I can come any time. Trying to decide if I should go during my hour and a half off or if I should go after work. TIA

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Scott Gottlieb is predicting by April we'll have enough vaccines in the US for anyone to be able to get one. Would be pretty amazing.

Quote

"We're going to run out of demand sooner than we think. At some point in March and certainly by the end of March we're going to have to make this generally available ... everyone is going to be able to go online and get an appointment sooner than we think," says @ScottGottliebMD.

https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1358766421531111427

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1 minute ago, themeanmachine said:

Scott Gottlieb is predicting by April we'll have enough vaccines in the US for anyone to be able to get one. Would be pretty amazing.

https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1358766421531111427

I would love to be vaccinated by April or May. Unlike every other FBG, I don’t have the connections to figure out a way to get one early.

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1 minute ago, parasaurolophus said:

Well seeing as it has been a consistent downward trajectory since peak, thats a good thing. Almost 2300 at peak. Less than 600 now. 

Thanks - wasn’t being an ###.  Seriously just don’t have the stats memorized for WI.  Figured it was good news.   Glad to see my home state improving.

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#s declining everywhere. Anyone know why? Is this just the normal pattern of viruses? I doubt anyone changed their routines in the last month. I know the holiday gatherings contributed to the spike. Is that it?

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Just looking at some #s in NY. Hospitals never got overwhelmed during the 2nd wave. NY was at around 15k cases a day. Deaths were around 150-200/day. Meanwhile during the 1st wave, NY cases were around 10k a day, hospitals were at their peak and deaths hit 1000/day at their peak. Why? I realize testing wasn't good then. So how many positive cases do we think NY had during the 1st wave? 5x as many? That would be around 75k cases a day. That's insane if true.

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28 minutes ago, themeanmachine said:

Scott Gottlieb is predicting by April we'll have enough vaccines in the US for anyone to be able to get one. Would be pretty amazing.

Quote

"We're going to run out of demand sooner than we think. At some point in March and certainly by the end of March we're going to have to make this generally available ... everyone is going to be able to go online and get an appointment sooner than we think," says @ScottGottliebMD.

https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1358766421531111427

At some point, it's a numbers game. At current pace, we're at 100 million vaccinated by mid-March. It seemed like, say, a month ago, the popular press was assuming the then-current pace of vaccinations was the U.S. vaccination effort at full throttle. It was clearly not, and frankly that should have been more widely recognized in the popular press at the time. Instead, we got sensationalist articles about how most Americans wouldn't get vaccines until the summer and fall.

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16 minutes ago, jobarules said:

Just looking at some #s in NY. Hospitals never got overwhelmed during the 2nd wave. NY was at around 15k cases a day. Deaths were around 150-200/day. Meanwhile during the 1st wave, NY cases were around 10k a day, hospitals were at their peak and deaths hit 1000/day at their peak. Why? I realize testing wasn't good then. So how many positive cases do we think NY had during the 1st wave? 5x as many? That would be around 75k cases a day. That's insane if true.

Here's one recent stab at answering this question (not specifically for NYC, though):

Why The Pandemic Is 10 Times Worse Than You Think (NPR, 2/6/2021)

Quote

 

Ever since the coronavirus reached the U.S., officials and citizens alike have gauged the severity of the spread by tracking one measure in particular: How many new cases are confirmed through testing each day. However, it has been clear all along that this number is an understatement because of testing shortfalls.

Now a research team at Columbia University has built a mathematical model that gives a much more complete — and scary — picture of how much virus is circulating in our communities.

It estimates how many people are never counted because they never get tested. And it answers a second question that is arguably even more crucial — but that until now has not been reliably estimated: On any given day, what is the total number of people who are actively infectious? This includes those who may have been infected on previous days but are still shedding virus and capable of spreading disease.

The model's conclusion: On any given day, the actual number of active cases — people who are newly infected or still infectious — is likely 10 times that day's official number of reported cases.

 

 

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From the same NPR link -- my edits in brackets:

Quote

There's a fair amount of variation: In North Dakota [52%] and New York [state] [46%], for instance, Shaman estimates about [about] half of the population has now been infected. "They may even be approaching herd immunity there," he says.

 

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I went to my gym this morning for the first time in what seems like eons.  When I work out indoors, it's at our campus wellness center.  I literally hadn't been there since sometime in the general vicinity of March 10 last year.  The gym shut down along with the rest of campus for several months, and then there was no reason to go back because why would I want to exercise indoors when I could just run outside instead?  My original goal was to avoid the gym entirely until Thanksgiving -- when students left campus this fall -- but the weather stayed so nice that I just stuck with it all the way through January.  Unfortunately, our unseasonably-warm winter has come to an end and we're now looking at temperatures that start with a minus sign as far as I can see in the extended forecast, so back to the gym it is then.

Unfortunately, my gym is still stuck in an April-2000 mindset when everybody thought that fomite transmission was a major source of spread.  It opens at 5:00 am and closes at like midnight or 2:00 am or something, but it shuts down twice during the day (mid-morning and early-afternoon) for a couple of hours at a time so workers can go through and wipe everything down.  That sounds harmless enough, except that it implies a larger population density during times when the gym is open, which almost certainly ends up making it more dangerous than it would be if it just stayed open all the time.  So dumb.  

Anyway, I got there when it opened at 5:00 and it wasn't too bad.  I had no real problem staying away from other people, but by 6:00 it was starting to get a little too crowded for my tastes.  I'm not training for anything -- all I want to do is get in a few easy runs each week to maintain enough fitness so that I can get back into my regular routine when this cold snap passes, which could be 4-6 weeks or so.  Tentatively, I think my plan is get there at 5:00 maybe 3-4 weekdays per week.  I am going to take weekends completely off because it opens late on weekends (again, this gym is run by a profoundly dumb manager) and it's not worth dealing with the weekend crowd just to squeeze in another easy 5-miler.  If I can do one long-ish run and a couple of short runs each week, that should be fine for the next couple of months, and I think I can do that with a reasonable level of safety.

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2 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

I went to my gym this morning for the first time in what seems like eons.  When I work out indoors, it's at our campus wellness center.  I literally hadn't been there since sometime in the general vicinity of March 10 last year.  The gym shut down along with the rest of campus for several months, and then there was no reason to go back because why would I want to exercise indoors when I could just run outside instead?  My original goal was to avoid the gym entirely until Thanksgiving -- when students left campus this fall -- but the weather stayed so nice that I just stuck with it all the way through January.  Unfortunately, our unseasonably-warm winter has come to an end and we're now looking at temperatures that start with a minus sign as far as I can see in the extended forecast, so back to the gym it is then.

Unfortunately, my gym is still stuck in an April-2000 mindset when everybody thought that fomite transmission was a major source of spread.  It opens at 5:00 am and closes at like midnight or 2:00 am or something, but it shuts down twice during the day (mid-morning and early-afternoon) for a couple of hours at a time so workers can go through and wipe everything down.  That sounds harmless enough, except that it implies a larger population density during times when the gym is open, which almost certainly ends up making it more dangerous than it would be if it just stayed open all the time.  So dumb.  

Anyway, I got there when it opened at 5:00 and it wasn't too bad.  I had no real problem staying away from other people, but by 6:00 it was starting to get a little too crowded for my tastes.  I'm not training for anything -- all I want to do is get in a few easy runs each week to maintain enough fitness so that I can get back into my regular routine when this cold snap passes, which could be 4-6 weeks or so.  Tentatively, I think my plan is get there at 5:00 maybe 3-4 weekdays per week.  I am going to take weekends completely off because it opens late on weekends (again, this gym is run by a profoundly dumb manager) and it's not worth dealing with the weekend crowd just to squeeze in another easy 5-miler.  If I can do one long-ish run and a couple of short runs each week, that should be fine for the next couple of months, and I think I can do that with a reasonable level of safety.

I think the CDC has done a terrible job of messaging on the fomite issue. It is not the main way this disease is transmitted, but there is a very tiny risk of fomite infection, so they won't come out and proclaim loudly "you don't need to be sanitizing everything anymore, we overstated that risk. Just don't be around people not in your household indoors for more than five minutes at a time and you'll be fine."  The risk is tiny but they don't want people to stop being careful.

Our local Wal-mart had an outbreak among employees last week.  They shut the whole store down for two days to sterilize everything.  Madness.

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52 minutes ago, Alex P Keaton said:

Thanks - wasn’t being an ###.  Seriously just don’t have the stats memorized for WI.  Figured it was good news.   Glad to see my home state improving.

I didnt take it poorly at all, i knew why you were asking.

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6 minutes ago, worrierking said:

I think the CDC has done a terrible job of messaging on the fomite issue. It is not the main way this disease is transmitted, but there is a very tiny risk of fomite infection, so they won't come out and proclaim loudly "you don't need to be sanitizing everything anymore, we overstated that risk. Just don't be around people not in your household indoors for more than five minutes at a time and you'll be fine."  The risk is tiny but they don't want people to stop being careful.

Our local Wal-mart had an outbreak among employees last week.  They shut the whole store down for two days to sterilize everything.  Madness.

A thousand times this. IMHO, it's much closer to true to say "It straight-up cannot spread via fomites" than it is to say "Fomites are a COVID risk". But as you point out ... having a slight risk makes scientists uncomfortable with writing off fomites altogether.

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18 minutes ago, Doug B said:

From the same NPR link -- my edits in brackets:

 

I honestly cant think of another way to explain what happened in the midwest numbers started going down hard when everybody predicted they would go up. Only explanation I can come up with is burn out. 

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2 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

There should certainly be a lot more focus on ventilation and air exchange. 

I was heartened to hear Joe Biden in a weekend interview make improved ventilation the second condition of schools re-opening safely. Others may have heard the interview, and CNN has been playing clips of it this morning. Let me see if I can get a link for the house.

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1 minute ago, Doug B said:

A thousand times this. IMHO, it's much closer to true to say "It straight-up cannot spread via fomites" than it is to say "Fomites are a COVID risk". But as you point out ... having a slight risk makes scientists uncomfortable with writing off fomites altogether.

I remember I used to bring a small thing of hand sanitizer with me to the store. When I was done shopping, I would clean my hands before touching my car keys. Now I just wash my hands when I get home. I remember people in here baking their mail, wiping down groceries, and re-heating their pizza delivery. I hope nobody is doing that anymore.

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1 minute ago, parasaurolophus said:

I honestly cant think of another way to explain what happened in the midwest numbers started going down hard when everybody predicted they would go up. Only explanation I can come up with is burn out. 

I can't remember if I posted it here or on another board ... but if I posted it here before, my apologies for repeating it:

It's looking apparent that except for vaccination efforts, we simply won't see the end of the pandemic coming. The cases will drop very low and we won't have the collective experience of having done anything different to make that happen. In a weird sense, vaccination efforts will get too much credit** for the end of the pandemic when it does come.
 

** don't read too much into that -- I just mean that, if you could isolate and quantify all variables (which you can't), the vaccinations might really deserve 60-70% credit for ending the pandemic but will be popularly thought of as having 99.9% credit. Percentages made up to make a point, no link.

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