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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread


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1 minute ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

Yea but those without shots who are infected have a larger viral load to spread the disease to you, and you could bring it home and spread it to your unvaccinated children or spread it to others etc. And then we get mutations and we are still stuck in this. 

:shrug:  I'm not at the point where we want to go and arrest people and give them a shot at gunpoint.  That's the logical conclusion for this line of thinking.  

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My dad has been sick for a few weeks.  My mom called me today to say he was about to die.  I said some final words to him and he could hear me but was unable to respond.  He passed a short time later.

Not to derail anything, but we had our baby last night! She's doing amazingly well. Due to the hospital's pandemic policies, I had to leave her right after my wife was released from recovery. I can't

On a positive note, my wife gave birth to our first child this morning!! We were expecting our daughter to be born in the first week of April, which does not align very well if this hospital sees a ma

8 minutes ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

It was a similar but different number. That was from a trial. This was just published and then another with similar findings not from a study but from real-world data in Israel, which is much more encouraging. 

The israeli study was two dose numbers. There was no one dose study.

The 92.1% number is direct from the fda moderna docs. They copied the table directly from it. It is exactly the data from page 28 of the docs.

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5 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

The israeli study was two dose numbers. There was no one dose study.

The 92.1% number is direct from the fda moderna docs. They copied the table directly from it. It is exactly the data from page 28 of the docs.

Oh, you're right. TY. My reading comprehension needs more coffee this AM. :lol: 

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6 hours ago, Rodrigo Duterte said:

I am scheduled for a vax on Tuesday through Rite Aid in California.  I dug around some for which vaccine I might be receiving, but didn't get anywhere.  I'm just curious is all, feel very fortunate regardless.

Almost certainly Moderna. Very few retail locations have the freezer to handle Pfizer. There’s ways around it but requires a lot of dry ice and most places don’t want to mess with it.

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2 hours ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

Yea, I am not sure what to think. I have a bad feeling that the vaccine penetration is going to plateau in May and then we have a false sense of security in the summer and the fall goes in the pooper again because 60% of the population didn’t bother to get the shots. 
 

I have been out of the office since March 12 and haven’t traveled at all. I take the train to work. Just not sure when normal will be even on the horizon and if new normal is wearing a mask on transportation all year forever or next few years. 
 

I do see some light now though and will make some appointments I have put off once I get the second shot. Maybe even socialize with other vaccinated people?

 Now that we’ve started doing 2nd doses for people, I’m getting the ‘what can I do now’ question a lot. My advise is usually to continue with most precautions but if there are appointments you’ve put off or people you haven’t seen, those can now be considered if done safely.

An interesting bit of peer pressure from the retirement community I work with, many residents have told me that their social circles are basically requiring immunization before getting together.

Personally I don’t think I’m going to change much, I’ll just feel more comfortable doing it.

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2 hours ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

Yea, I am not sure what to think. I have a bad feeling that the vaccine penetration is going to plateau in May and then we have a false sense of security in the summer and the fall goes in the pooper again because 60% of the population didn’t bother to get the shots. 
 

I have been out of the office since March 12 and haven’t traveled at all. I take the train to work. Just not sure when normal will be even on the horizon and if new normal is wearing a mask on transportation all year forever or next few years. 
 

I do see some light now though and will make some appointments I have put off once I get the second shot. Maybe even socialize with other vaccinated people?

Why do you think 60% of the population won’t get vaccinated?

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Opinion piece from John's Hopkins expert says pandemic will be over by April.

[Quote]

We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news.

By Marty Makary

Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?

In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.

Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.

There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.

Antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity. Antibody testing doesn’t capture antigen-specific T-cells, which develop “memory” once they are activated by the virus. Survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu were found in 2008—90 years later—to have memory cells still able to produce neutralizing antibodies.

Researchers at Sweden’s Karolinska Institute found that the percentage of people mounting a T-cell response after mild or asymptomatic Covid-19 infection consistently exceeded the percentage with detectable antibodies. T-cell immunity was even present in people who were exposed to infected family members but never developed symptoms. A group of U.K. scientists in September pointed out that the medical community may be under-appreciating the prevalence of immunity from activated T-cells.

Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection.

In my own conversations with medical experts, I have noticed that they too often dismiss natural immunity, arguing that we don’t have data. The data certainly doesn’t fit the classic randomized-controlled-trial model of the old-guard medical establishment. There’s no control group. But the observational data is compelling.

I have argued for months that we could save more American lives if those with prior Covid-19 infection forgo vaccines until all vulnerable seniors get their first dose. Several studies demonstrate that natural immunity should protect those who had Covid-19 until more vaccines are available. Half my friends in the medical community told me: Good idea. The other half said there isn’t enough data on natural immunity, despite the fact that reinfections have occurred in less than 1% of people—and when they do occur, the cases are mild.

But the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity. Behavior didn’t suddenly improve over the holidays; Americans traveled more over Christmas than they had since March. Vaccines also don’t explain the steep decline in January. Vaccination rates were low and they take weeks to kick in.

My prediction that Covid-19 will be mostly gone by April is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature and conversations with experts. But it’s also based on direct observation of how hard testing has been to get, especially for the poor. If you live in a wealthy community where worried people are vigilant about getting tested, you might think that most infections are captured by testing. But if you have seen the many barriers to testing for low-income Americans, you might think that very few infections have been captured at testing centers. Keep in mind that most infections are asymptomatic, which still triggers natural immunity.

Many experts, along with politicians and journalists, are afraid to talk about herd immunity. The term has political overtones because some suggested the U.S. simply let Covid rip to achieve herd immunity. That was a reckless idea. But herd immunity is the inevitable result of viral spread and vaccination. When the chain of virus transmission has been broken in multiple places, it’s harder for it to spread—and that includes the new strains.

Herd immunity has been well-documented in the Brazilian city of Manaus, where researchers in the Lancet reported the prevalence of prior Covid-19 infection to be 76%, resulting in a significant slowing of the infection. Doctors are watching a new strain that threatens to evade prior immunity. But countries where new variants have emerged, such as the U.K., South Africa and Brazil, are also seeing significant declines in daily new cases. The risk of new variants mutating around the prior vaccinated or natural immunity should be a reminder that Covid-19 will persist for decades after the pandemic is over. It should also instill a sense of urgency to develop, authorize and administer a vaccine targeted to new variants.

Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine. But scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth. As we encourage everyone to get a vaccine, we also need to reopen schools and society to limit the damage of closures and prolonged isolation. Contingency planning for an open economy by April can deliver hope to those in despair and to those who have made large personal sacrifices.

Dr. Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, chief medical adviser to Sesame Care, and author of “The Price We Pay.”

[/quote]

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21 hours ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

It's 15% in my county.  Throw in ~25% who've been infected and a vaccination rate of about 3% every 4 days (currently, could increase soon) and we'd be at herd immunity in the next 60 days or so.

Cases aren't just declining in the US (and most other places), they are cratering right now.

So far the variants seem to be able to evade fast-responding antibodies, but not later-arriving T-cells (which means you might still get sick if you've had COVID already had it or have been vaccinated, but are very unlikely to die).

The US is about to be awash in vaccines generally, with 10s of millions arriving each month for the forseeable future.

In many parts of the country the weather is likely to start lending a hand in the next few weeks.

Light at the end of the tunnel, people!  Even if what's on the other side may not be exactly like the place we left 12 months ago.

The focus will soon turn (as it should) to the health care workers and elderly in low and middle income countries that don't have the clout or money to get access to the vaccines in the first round.  Not every country can be Israel, which is at like 50% vaccinated in their 9m population.  I heard that only about 35k people in all of Africa have been vaccinated. 

I would volunteer to get a delayed vaccine for a few weeks to a month if it meant that the health care workers and most vulnerable worldwide got access before me. 

The pandemic won't be over-over until we as a people spread the vaccines worldwide. 

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1 hour ago, Biff84 said:
7 hours ago, Rodrigo Duterte said:

I am scheduled for a vax on Tuesday through Rite Aid in California.  I dug around some for which vaccine I might be receiving, but didn't get anywhere.  I'm just curious is all, feel very fortunate regardless.

Almost certainly Moderna. Very few retail locations have the freezer to handle Pfizer. There’s ways around it but requires a lot of dry ice and most places don’t want to mess with it.

Not anymore -- see worrierking's first link on this page upthread.

Now the question is ... can protocols be adjusted on the fly quickly? Or will there be a few weeks of inertia before people start regularly storing Pfizer vaccines in regular freezers?

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Little tidbit I heard the other day somewhere, all of the Covid virus in the entire world that has infected people could fit into one can of soda, with room to spare.

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34 minutes ago, Alex P Keaton said:

Ah.  I interpreted it as 60% of the relevant (adult) population.  That may have been a poor assumption.

i honestly hadnt thought about kids either.  I was listening to a podcast and they thought that it was getting kids vaccinated that may inhibit us to getting to herd immunity as quickly as many would like.  Though i believe they have started trials on teenagers now. 

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29 minutes ago, Shatner! said:

Little tidbit I heard the other day somewhere, all of the Covid virus in the entire world that has infected people could fit into one can of soda, with room to spare.

I saw that too.  It’s hard to believe.....that it can be true.....AND that masks can be effective at the same time.

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On 2/19/2021 at 11:55 AM, NajehHejan said:

Not sure if this is the right thread or not. Wife and I have been super careful. Always masks around anyone etc. Don't do much outside of shopping. Wife had a headache and didn't feel right - got a rapid test and it came back positive. PCR test is this afternoon. Have you folks heard of many false positives from the rapid tests (15 to know)? I'm getting a regular PCR test as well. She is 40's and otherwise healthy so praying she'll be fine even if she's positive.

PCR tests for both of us came back negative! We still had our two kids tested this morning, for final closure. I really appreciate everyone’s input. Even though the odds of a false positive were very small, looks like they worked in our favor. So relieved! 

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1 hour ago, Doug B said:

Not anymore -- see worrierking's first link on this page upthread.

Now the question is ... can protocols be adjusted on the fly quickly? Or will there be a few weeks of inertia before people start regularly storing Pfizer vaccines in regular freezers?

It’s unlikely that it will be an immediate change. The time frame for freezer storage is still limited to 14 days, I believe. Moderna can be kept in the fridge for 30 days but isn’t being marketed or transported at fridge temps.

Because many more pharmacies started giving the vaccine within the last couple weeks, they will need to keep doing Moderna for the 2nd doses for those have gotten it already and the supply they currently have. A possible scenario is that Pfizer will be cycled in for 1st doses while 2nd doses of Moderna are given. I hope that they do not attempt to make both vaccines available at all pharmacies because that will cause a logics nightmare. Ideally a pharmacy would be a Moderna or Pfizer pharmacy.

Typically I would expect the 14 day storage of Pfizer to be a non-starter but now that they are going to a policy of only sending a week supply at a time, it might be possible.

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Thanks for the info Biff.  I am kind of surprised word doesn't get out what CVS or Rite Aid will be getting.  I mean, I'm scheduled for Tuesday, they know what they're getting or have already.  

Do I have to start a next door account, sheesh.  People are going to walk out and tweet it or whatever asap.  Might as well let us know sooner, instead of fielding calls about it.

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20 minutes ago, Rodrigo Duterte said:

Thanks for the info Biff.  I am kind of surprised word doesn't get out what CVS or Rite Aid will be getting.  I mean, I'm scheduled for Tuesday, they know what they're getting or have already.  

Do I have to start a next door account, sheesh.  People are going to walk out and tweet it or whatever asap.  Might as well let us know sooner, instead of fielding calls about it.

They should but honestly I don’t think our system tells them either. I get people who ask which shot it is after I give them the shot. I try to put the information in my regular cadence before giving the shot but when you’re giving 100 shots a day, sometimes I miss every information point. We’re overworked where I’m at but places like CVS, Rite Aide and Walgreens are even worse. Don’t be surprised if your experience getting the shot is poor but very little of that is on the store level employees. We’re just as frustrated as you with things like vaccines not being disclosed.

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Got mine at Rite Aid. They didn’t give much information or disclosure at all. Did tell me it was Moderna and scheduled my next shot exactly 4 weeks out at the same time. Then she said I could walk around the store for 15min and wave goodbye. 

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1 minute ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

Got mine at Rite Aid. They didn’t give much information or disclosure at all. Did tell me it was Moderna and scheduled my next shot exactly 4 weeks out at the same time. Then she said I could walk around the store for 15min and wave goodbye. 

So they do tell you which, good.  Where was this?

I know it doesn't matter, this is like getting a Ford or a Chevy, but I'm now curious.

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12 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

They should but honestly I don’t think our system tells them either. I get people who ask which shot it is after I give them the shot. I try to put the information in my regular cadence before giving the shot but when you’re giving 100 shots a day, sometimes I miss every information point. We’re overworked where I’m at but places like CVS, Rite Aide and Walgreens are even worse. Don’t be surprised if your experience getting the shot is poor but very little of that is on the store level employees. We’re just as frustrated as you with things like vaccines not being disclosed.

I find it bizarre that they don't disclose it.  I got a text for my appt, didn't say anything about type of shot.  Not a big deal but still.

So you do know what you're putting in people, and have to tell them, or have them ask about it, probably every single time?  Can't a sign be put up or something?

Are any individual pharmacy locations due to receive more than one type of vax?  I assume not.

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1 hour ago, NajehHejan said:

PCR tests for both of us came back negative! We still had our two kids tested this morning, for final closure. I really appreciate everyone’s input. Even though the odds of a false positive were very small, looks like they worked in our favor. So relieved! 

Did they recommend getting a second pcr just to be safe?  

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26 minutes ago, Rodrigo Duterte said:

I find it bizarre that they don't disclose it.  I got a text for my appt, didn't say anything about type of shot.  Not a big deal but still.

So you do know what you're putting in people, and have to tell them, or have them ask about it, probably every single time?  Can't a sign be put up or something?

Are any individual pharmacy locations due to receive more than one type of vax?  I assume not.

I think our confirmation email tells the vaccine but I’m not positive. I will always give directions for the second dose and the information will be on the vaccination card we give out (manufacturer, lot, exp). I’d hope that we stick with one manufacturer but with the uncertainty of where the vaccine will be coming from, it might be that we take what we can get.

Once J&J gets approved, I imagine that will become a secondary vaccine at most places.

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7 hours ago, Rodrigo Duterte said:

So they do tell you which, good.  Where was this?

I know it doesn't matter, this is like getting a Ford or a Chevy, but I'm now curious.

Rite Aid in Chester County PA (outside philly). 
 

I think all of my county is getting Moderna, however, I just read they are switching to Pfizer because of a supply shortage causing 5400 cancellations at the hospitals. Hopefully that is worked out in the next 30 days for me. 

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Dad got his second Moderna shot a couple days ago. Not much reaction at first. Following evening he had a fever and chills. Guess he was back to feeling ok today.

 

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6 hours ago, Shatner! said:

Dad got his second Moderna shot a couple days ago. Not much reaction at first. Following evening he had a fever and chills. Guess he was back to feeling ok today.

 

Crazy how that works. My dad basically had a headache and was a little tired. My mom couldn’t get out of bed, had a fever, and was nauseated. My aunt could not walk from her bed to the bathroom without holding on to the wall she was so nauseated and exhausted. 

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On 2/19/2021 at 4:22 AM, Nathan R. Jessep said:

This is pretty much the result of every well designed trial featuring vitamins/micronutrients/antioxidants. Yet we still have a multi billion dollar supplement industry, endorsed by a bunch of people who don’t trust “conventional” medicine.

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On 2/19/2021 at 6:55 AM, NajehHejan said:

Not sure if this is the right thread or not. Wife and I have been super careful. Always masks around anyone etc. Don't do much outside of shopping. Wife had a headache and didn't feel right - got a rapid test and it came back positive. PCR test is this afternoon. Have you folks heard of many false positives from the rapid tests (15 to know)? I'm getting a regular PCR test as well. She is 40's and otherwise healthy so praying she'll be fine even if she's positive.

False positives can occur, but overall the rapid PCR tests are really good.

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On 2/19/2021 at 7:58 AM, NajehHejan said:

Unfortunately, no. It just says "rapid antigen test". By 15 to Know

Oh I misread your first post. Antigen tests are more prone to false results than PCR tests.

ETA Glad the PCR was negative.

Edited by Terminalxylem
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5 hours ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

Pfizer vaccine halted 89.4% of “transmission” in Israel. Huge news if accurate. Same for Moderna?

Extremely big news. Nearing the end of this assuming this is accurate (and no reason to think it’s not). 

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53 minutes ago, Capella said:

Extremely big news. Nearing the end of this assuming this is accurate (and no reason to think it’s not). 

They are at 50%+ penetration though and we need the rest of the world to catch up. 
 

And the US needs to take genome tracking and these emerging diseases seriously. Apparently a bird flu has moved over to humans in Russia. 

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Any further research on how long the vaccines are good for? What about people who got COVID really early on in the pandemic. It’s been almost a year. Any news about if any of these people got it again a year later? I assume China has to have some data after so many people got it there last January but I can’t find anything. 

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My wife got her second dose Friday. Bad headache and fatigue were her only side effects. The headache was pretty debilitating though. Finally got my second dose today (18 days late, 3 days under the six week wire). Will report back later. I want to add, we are both pushing 60, se we'd expect slightly less side effects than the younger folks.

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Has anyone gotten the 2nd dose of Pfizer yet? I'm curious as to how the felt afterwards.

My brother is FDNY and they got the Moderna vax, he said he didn't fell too bad after the 2nd dose but some of the other firemen were down for a few days.

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1 hour ago, Alex P Keaton said:

Me neither.  Why are you worried about making an appointment now then?

I'm worried about all the people who are eligible now. Fastest way we get thru this. Never said I was worried about myself

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