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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread


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5 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

The ‘not dying’ is a little too simplistic but considering the reduction of severe illness and hospitalizations is more important than the percentage effective. It’s not as great but still great in terms of what really matters on the goal of returning to normal.

Give two doses to medium-high risk people - anyone 55+, high risk health conditions or high exposure jobs. Everyone else give Johnson and Johnson or consider delaying the second dose of Moderna/Pfizer.

My Mother, and others like her, want to wait for JnN because they trust the brand.  Amazing how strong and lasting good marketing can be, I mean we are talking decades here.  Could have been vaxed by now, but no.

BTW, any opinion (looking at you too, @Terminalxylem) on what to do about her? She has had severe reactions to things like vaccines in the past, as well as her brother.  Hyper thyroid.  Like her system goes full bore on attack and overdoes it.  So that's why she's waiting this vax thing out still, although inching closer as time goes on.

From my limited reading, I believe the Moderna has been a little easier on people with allergic reactions and stuff, no?  What about JnJ?

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34 minutes ago, jobarules said:

I thought even asymptomatic and mild symptom cases were turning into long haulers.

I don’t have stats at the ready, but I really do believe the popular media is exaggerating this big time. Would love to learn more or see better more conclusive data somewhere. The popular media largely serves up (a) personal anecdotes and/or (b) heavily bowdlerized and equivocal statements from researchers.

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29 minutes ago, Rodrigo Duterte said:

My Mother, and others like her, want to wait for JnN because they trust the brand.  Amazing how strong and lasting good marketing can be, I mean we are talking decades here.  Could have been vaxed by now, but no.

BTW, any opinion (looking at you too, @Terminalxylem) on what to do about her? She has had severe reactions to things like vaccines in the past, as well as her brother.  Hyper thyroid.  Like her system goes full bore on attack and overdoes it.  So that's why she's waiting this vax thing out still, although inching closer as time goes on.

From my limited reading, I believe the Moderna has been a little easier on people with allergic reactions and stuff, no?  What about JnJ?

Neither vaccine is proving to have high incidence of allergic reactions. I think one study showed under 100 for each one out of millions of shots given.

With a history of severe reaction to vaccines, I’d recommend talking it over with her doctor first and get their recommendation. I’d also try to get the vaccine in a more controlled clinic setting rather than a pharmacy or mass vaccination site. We’re keeping an eye on everyone but with her history, I’d want a little bit more.

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44 minutes ago, jobarules said:

How do they possibly know that? I thought even asymptomatic and mild symptom cases were turning into long haulers.

While true that it happens and it’s not fully understood why, one theory that COVID causes severe damage in most but those with a healthy immune system are able to compensate and show minimal symptoms. The damage is still there leading to long hauler symptoms and permanent damage.

Likewise the vaccine still has a lot of long term questions. It’s believed that the vaccine won’t prevent getting infected but it will allow the immune system to stop the infection from progressing to the point where it causes serious symptoms. So far studies have shown decreases in deaths, severe illness and symptomatic infections. There’s still questions like you brought up if it will prevent long term complications and how long immunity lasts from the vaccinations.

Beyond the prevention of symptoms, severe illness and death, the body being able to clear the infection quickly likely will lead a shorter contagious period and less opportunity for the virus to mutation.

There’s a lot to be excited about and I’d say that if everything proves to be as good as it sounds we’re looking at a halfway normal summer.

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3 hours ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

How old is your daughter?  Is she in school?

She is 9. Younger brothers of 7 and 5. Her and the 7 year old go to school and then after care with the 5 year old at his preschool. 

The 7 year old was tested today and is positive as well. No symptoms at all. My wife and I think we have it. My stomach has been semi uneasy since Sunday... nothing normally I would even worry about at all. My wife has had some sinus issues which are not uncommon for her but take those with both of our kids being sick that are usually on top of us and then if she got it or I got it, not sure how we could not pass to the other unless we were naturally immune or something. 

I am 90% sure they got it from school. They had previously quarantined two of the classes in her grade. Now all of her grade and 5th grade is quarantined (seems like an outbreak to me) and they will need to quarantine the 7 year olds class too. 

My 5 year old has been at preschool maybe like a total of 5 days for the last two months of him or his siblings not feeling well and then having to stay away for 10 days. 

So... all in all, 2 of the 3 kids tested positive. Suspect we all have it. Grand sum of symptoms is my daughter throwing up once and having an uneasy stomach. Maybe very minor symptoms for my wife and me. Quarantined for the next couple of weeks and wife is getting about a month of time off (paid sick time). 

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3 hours ago, Capella said:

Truly infuriating to me how this is getting reported. Had 3 friends text me today about the 66-75% efficacy thing. How it’s less than Moderna and Phizer. The headlines leave out the fact that if you get the vax you will not die from covid. 
 

You see, covid is bad because it kills people. Why is this not the screaming headlines?

The fda was shooting for 50% ... The flu vaccine is ~50%

It's around 72% on the us strain. But you are freaking right. I won't die good enough for me 

We moved to vaccine shaming lol

 

Edited by belljr
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2 hours ago, Rodrigo Duterte said:

My Mother, and others like her, want to wait for JnN because they trust the brand.  Amazing how strong and lasting good marketing can be, I mean we are talking decades here.  Could have been vaxed by now, but no.

BTW, any opinion (looking at you too, @Terminalxylem) on what to do about her? She has had severe reactions to things like vaccines in the past, as well as her brother.  Hyper thyroid.  Like her system goes full bore on attack and overdoes it.  So that's why she's waiting this vax thing out still, although inching closer as time goes on.

From my limited reading, I believe the Moderna has been a little easier on people with allergic reactions and stuff, no?  What about JnJ?

@Biff84covered it. Allergic reactions haven’t been common.

Specifically for you mom, what type of reactions has she had? IgE mediated stuff like anaphylaxis , hives, throat/mouth swelling and neurologic syndromes like Gillain-Barre are most relevant. If she hasn’t had any of those, she probably has no need to worry (even if she has, I’d want to know which vaccine(s) gave her trouble).

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In the J&J trials, there were no hospitalizations or deaths at all in the vaccine arm. Sign me up.

Keep in mind, vaccine trials for the 3 vaccines took place at different times and in different countries. The efficacy % they quote is not directly comparable across vaccines. There are also different efficacy %'s by country. Bottom line the J&J vaccine is good to go, so let's go already.

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1 hour ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Could you explain this to me please ?

I do believe in the fact that having it stored at a higher temperature makes it less prone to someone screwing that part up.  

Edited by culdeus
Wrong about one aspect of this.
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1 hour ago, Chadstroma said:

She is 9. Younger brothers of 7 and 5. Her and the 7 year old go to school and then after care with the 5 year old at his preschool. 

The 7 year old was tested today and is positive as well. No symptoms at all. My wife and I think we have it. My stomach has been semi uneasy since Sunday... nothing normally I would even worry about at all. My wife has had some sinus issues which are not uncommon for her but take those with both of our kids being sick that are usually on top of us and then if she got it or I got it, not sure how we could not pass to the other unless we were naturally immune or something. 

I am 90% sure they got it from school. They had previously quarantined two of the classes in her grade. Now all of her grade and 5th grade is quarantined (seems like an outbreak to me) and they will need to quarantine the 7 year olds class too. 

My 5 year old has been at preschool maybe like a total of 5 days for the last two months of him or his siblings not feeling well and then having to stay away for 10 days. 

So... all in all, 2 of the 3 kids tested positive. Suspect we all have it. Grand sum of symptoms is my daughter throwing up once and having an uneasy stomach. Maybe very minor symptoms for my wife and me. Quarantined for the next couple of weeks and wife is getting about a month of time off (paid sick time). 

I think you should talk to the CDC and my school district about their school re-opening guidelines . . . .

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1 hour ago, belljr said:

The fda was shooting for 50% ... The flu vaccine is ~50%

It's around 72% on the us strain. But you are freaking right. I won't die good enough for me 

We moved to vaccine shaming lol

And if I understand right ... that 50% figure for the annual flu vaccine is an average over time. Some years, they nail it and it's north of 70%. Other years they whiff and it's ~30%.

A vaccine that prevents COVID infection at a 72% AND prevents virtually all serious illness from the virus should someone get infected ... that's a huge success. Doesn't need to be a 90-something-percent vaccine to be effective.

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14 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Moderna has 3x the dose in the second shot of the first.  So (maybe) this is a reason why people are having fewer issues with it.  

Also less risk of letting it sit out too long because humans are lazy and can't do their jobs.

Moderna has the same amount in both doses.

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2 hours ago, Biff84 said:

While true that it happens and it’s not fully understood why, one theory that COVID causes severe damage in most but those with a healthy immune system are able to compensate and show minimal symptoms. The damage is still there leading to long hauler symptoms and permanent damage.

Likewise the vaccine still has a lot of long term questions. It’s believed that the vaccine won’t prevent getting infected but it will allow the immune system to stop the infection from progressing to the point where it causes serious symptoms. So far studies have shown decreases in deaths, severe illness and symptomatic infections. There’s still questions like you brought up if it will prevent long term complications and how long immunity lasts from the vaccinations.

Beyond the prevention of symptoms, severe illness and death, the body being able to clear the infection quickly likely will lead a shorter contagious period and less opportunity for the virus to mutation.

There’s a lot to be excited about and I’d say that if everything proves to be as good as it sounds we’re looking at a halfway normal summer.

Two weeks after my second shot, I intend to go to the dentist and dermatologist, get a haircut, and even get a massage.  All while wearing a mask though.  I will also move forward with house projects, but again, require masks at all times by any contractors.  I probably will still get delivery for groceries and avoid restaurants.  Might go to the gym for outdoor training classes.

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3 minutes ago, Doug B said:

And if I understand right ... that 50% figure for the annual flu vaccine is an average over time. Some years, they nail it and it's north of 70%. Other years they whiff and it's ~30%.

A vaccine that prevents COVID infection at a 72% AND prevents virtually all serious illness from the virus should someone get infected ... that's a huge success. Doesn't need to be a 90-something-percent vaccine to be effective.

Yea, I heard Gotlieb say the other day that everyone was hopeful for a 60% efficacy on these vaccines.  They all blew that out of the water.  We are really fortunate, even though we are approaching one-year of being on lockdown and lost 500k+ people.

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18 minutes ago, Doug B said:

And if I understand right ... that 50% figure for the annual flu vaccine is an average over time. Some years, they nail it and it's north of 70%. Other years they whiff and it's ~30%.

A vaccine that prevents COVID infection at a 72% AND prevents virtually all serious illness from the virus should someone get infected ... that's a huge success. Doesn't need to be a 90-something-percent vaccine to be effective.

dont disagree with any of this

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26 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

Moderna has the same amount in both doses.

Wow, ok I was basing this off old information. I'll edit.  I was sure they were making the 2nd shot stronger in some way at one point.  

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1 hour ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

Two weeks after my second shot, I intend to go to the dentist and dermatologist, get a haircut, and even get a massage.  All while wearing a mask though.  I will also move forward with house projects, but again, require masks at all times by any contractors.  I probably will still get delivery for groceries and avoid restaurants.  Might go to the gym for outdoor training classes.

I've done all this stuff the past year.

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54 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

"The importance of aerosols versus droplets is debated—most viral transmission appears to be via virus-laden droplets, with the greatest risk in crowded, inadequately ventilated environments"

Who are these people???

The overall article is somewhat equivocal ... but I wouldn't interpret that opening paragraph to mean "Whoops -- it was never aerosols! It was always droplets!"

From all the reading and things I've gleaned over the past year ... I can understand that while aerosol spread is very much possible and is likely behind most of the "I did everything right!" cases, proximate droplet spread among familiars probably does occur more often than aerosol spread. It's not a case of either-or: "Either we watch out for aerosols or we watch out for droplets! Can't be both!".

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2 minutes ago, Doug B said:

The overall article is somewhat equivocal ... but I wouldn't interpret that opening paragraph to mean "Whoops -- it was never aerosols! It was always droplets!"

From all the reading and things I've gleaned over the past year ... I can understand that while aerosol spread is very much possible and is likely behind most of the "I did everything right!" cases, proximate droplet spread among familiars probably does occur more often than aerosol spread. It's not a case of either-or: "Either we watch out for aerosols or we watch out for droplets! Can't be both!".

You cant say it is primarily droplet spread and then bring up ventilation. 

They are opposing. 

Unless you had a mesh floor with high powered fans blowing upward, ventilation is irrelevant for droplet spread. 

 

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16 hours ago, Doug B said:

And if I understand right ... that 50% figure for the annual flu vaccine is an average over time. Some years, they nail it and it's north of 70%. Other years they whiff and it's ~30%.

A vaccine that prevents COVID infection at a 72% AND prevents virtually all serious illness from the virus should someone get infected ... that's a huge success. Doesn't need to be a 90-something-percent vaccine to be effective.

Don't think it prevents infection but prevents symptomatic Covid.  I understand for Pfizer and Moderna they are studying prevention of infection now but all initial trials were on if it prevented symptons.  

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18 hours ago, Chadstroma said:

She is 9. Younger brothers of 7 and 5. Her and the 7 year old go to school and then after care with the 5 year old at his preschool. 

The 7 year old was tested today and is positive as well. No symptoms at all. My wife and I think we have it. My stomach has been semi uneasy since Sunday... nothing normally I would even worry about at all. My wife has had some sinus issues which are not uncommon for her but take those with both of our kids being sick that are usually on top of us and then if she got it or I got it, not sure how we could not pass to the other unless we were naturally immune or something. 

I am 90% sure they got it from school. They had previously quarantined two of the classes in her grade. Now all of her grade and 5th grade is quarantined (seems like an outbreak to me) and they will need to quarantine the 7 year olds class too. 

My 5 year old has been at preschool maybe like a total of 5 days for the last two months of him or his siblings not feeling well and then having to stay away for 10 days. 

So... all in all, 2 of the 3 kids tested positive. Suspect we all have it. Grand sum of symptoms is my daughter throwing up once and having an uneasy stomach. Maybe very minor symptoms for my wife and me. Quarantined for the next couple of weeks and wife is getting about a month of time off (paid sick time). 

Oof.   GL gb.  Hope you all are ok.  

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17 hours ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

Two weeks after my second shot, I intend to go to the dentist and dermatologist, get a haircut, and even get a massage.  All while wearing a mask though.  I will also move forward with house projects, but again, require masks at all times by any contractors.  I probably will still get delivery for groceries and avoid restaurants.  Might go to the gym for outdoor training classes.

2-4 weeks after I get vaccinated (probably this May/June/July), I'm done wearing a mask except perhaps somewhere really crowded.  That said, I'll most likely continue to avoid crowds at that point -- but I'm not walking down my street wearing a mask, or wearing one when my neighbor strolls over to say hi, etc etc.  Once we are at a sizeable portion of the population vaccinated, I'm done with masks everywhere except perhaps airplanes and mass transit.

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25 minutes ago, Doug B said:

The overall article is somewhat equivocal ... but I wouldn't interpret that opening paragraph to mean "Whoops -- it was never aerosols! It was always droplets!"

From all the reading and things I've gleaned over the past year ... I can understand that while aerosol spread is very much possible and is likely behind most of the "I did everything right!" cases, proximate droplet spread among familiars probably does occur more often than aerosol spread. It's not a case of either-or: "Either we watch out for aerosols or we watch out for droplets! Can't be both!".

Also this thinking has been massively flawed throughout. Where do you think aerosol particles from an infected person would be at their highest concentrations? 

Close proximity. 

 

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5 minutes ago, Alex P Keaton said:

2-4 weeks after I get vaccinated (probably this May/June/July), I'm done wearing a mask except perhaps somewhere really crowded.  That said, I'll most likely continue to avoid crowds at that point -- but I'm not walking down my street wearing a mask, or wearing one when my neighbor strolls over to say hi, etc etc.  Once we are at a sizeable portion of the population vaccinated, I'm done with masks everywhere except perhaps airplanes and mass transit.

I don't mind wearing a mask. I have avoided those closer interactions though that some have continued with a mask and have just opted for delivery where available.  I have had to run certain errands though and had a few contractors in my house for various things that happened in the last 12-months.  During the summer I had a friend over outside for beers and went on vacation with family (after 2 week quarantine).  My MIL comes over every few weekend without a mask, but she isn't really leaving the house either.  

My job requires that I travel and I also took the train into the office every morning.  The question I have is whether I will be wearing a mask on that transit going forward, during certain seasons, just this year (when we go back) etc.

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4 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

Also this thinking has been massively flawed throughout. Where do you think aerosol particles from an infected person would be at their highest concentrations? 

Close proximity. 

Wait ... what are you saying?

If you're saying "mysterious aerosol infection from 20 feet away really doesn't happen, even indoors" ... I agree with you save for maybe a 1-in-a-billion viral luck shot.
 

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1 hour ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

I don't mind wearing a mask. I have avoided those closer interactions though that some have continued with a mask and have just opted for delivery where available.  I have had to run certain errands though and had a few contractors in my house for various things that happened in the last 12-months.  During the summer I had a friend over outside for beers and went on vacation with family (after 2 week quarantine).  My MIL comes over every few weekend without a mask, but she isn't really leaving the house either.  

My job requires that I travel and I also took the train into the office every morning.  The question I have is whether I will be wearing a mask on that transit going forward, during certain seasons, just this year (when we go back) etc.

My job also requires a ton of travel, and I commute to downtown Chicago by train.  I will absolutely wear a mask on planes and trains (but not in automobiles, lol) for at least the next 6-12 months.  I might do it forever, just to make people sitting next to me feel awkward and confused.

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Just saw this stat, really remarkable. Vaccination logistics started off rough over the holidays, but we've made so much progress. Should result in hospitalizations and deaths continuing to plummet, even in the face of new variants.

Quote

Six weeks ago, 14% of people over 75 in the US had gotten one COVID vaccine shot. Today, that number stands at nearly 60%.

 

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5 minutes ago, themeanmachine said:

Just saw this stat, really remarkable. Vaccination logistics started off rough over the holidays, but we've made so much progress. Should result in hospitalizations and deaths continuing to plummet, even in the face of new variants.

 

Polling also suggests people are more in favor of getting it now. I guess when they saw their meemaw get it and then not die right after it made them feel better. 

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Bulk of vaccinations in Florida still going to over 65.

I'm a govt contractor for DoD. They finally scraped the bottom of the barrel and said we were eligible. 

i officially got my first shot of Pfizer vaccine in the NAS JAX Officers club. No, Fr. Mulcahy was not playing piano.

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1 hour ago, Capella said:

Polling also suggests people are more in favor of getting it now. I guess when they saw their meemaw get it and then not die right after it made them feel better. 

I hope that remains true.  Some of the misleading headlines with the variants may have people sit it out.  It helps that Robert Kennedy, Jr. got banned from Instagram!  

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5 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

I hope that remains true.  Some of the misleading headlines with the variants may have people sit it out.  It helps that Robert Kennedy, Jr. got banned from Instagram!  

Yea I have friends, including a nurse, worried about the variants. As long as people get their shots it seems like we should be fine. 
 

Funny thing about RK Jr - we are watching some 1960s docs over the weekend and he’s on there giving interviews and comes off very thoughtful. Googled what he’s doing in life and boy was that a surprise. 

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1 hour ago, Capella said:

Polling also suggests people are more in favor of getting it now. I guess when they saw their meemaw get it and then not die right after it made them feel better. 

:lmao: :lmao: 

My biggest fear was any sort of backlash with the rollout.  Some deaths or harsh reactions all over the news, anything for the press to run with and give people pause.  But thankfully, save for a few hiccups, folks are mostly lining up for it.  And still nothing "tragic" or really concerning, so good.

There are loopholes in who is eligible, for sure, and if one is diligent in seeking out a way to get the shot, it can be done.  I also love seeing people chomping at the bit for extras that are/were going to waste.  It's a good path we're on and if you would've told me where we'd be -- in ALL of this -- 6 months ago (August), I would've been absolutely elated.

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6 hours ago, Doug B said:

The overall article is somewhat equivocal ... but I wouldn't interpret that opening paragraph to mean "Whoops -- it was never aerosols! It was always droplets!"

From all the reading and things I've gleaned over the past year ... I can understand that while aerosol spread is very much possible and is likely behind most of the "I did everything right!" cases, proximate droplet spread among familiars probably does occur more often than aerosol spread. It's not a case of either-or: "Either we watch out for aerosols or we watch out for droplets! Can't be both!".

Droplets and aerosols exist on a continuum. Many respiratory infections spread both ways; the balance between the two helps to determine contagiousness. SARS-CoV-2 appears to have a little more aerosol spread than influenza, but the bulk of epidemiologic data still suggests droplets as the predominant mechanism.

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On 2/20/2021 at 8:24 AM, Leeroy Jenkins said:

Sooo how long are people abstaining from alcohol after their first and second shots?

I recall Russia saying not to drink prior to the first shot and to abstain until 2 weeks after the second. 

Be a week tomorrow.  To beer or not to beer -- that is the question.

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So for Moderna, two weeks after your first shot and you're at 50%.

3-4 weeks put you around what?

And then 2 weeks after your 2nd shot, you're good, right?

I'm trying to gauge/plan interactions this next 6 weeks.  There is a false sense of security after the first shot, for sure.

 

Also wondering if Moderna isn't just being extra cautions in their overall guidelines, seeing as how the two vaccines are so similar.  Pfizer's timelines are faster.

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1 hour ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

Moderna here . . . 

First shot of moderns 4 weeks ago tomorrow. Had a cpl that night (fri). Had a cpl the next night. (Sat)
 

Felt like total crap Sunday afternoon through Monday.

Shot #2 tomorrow. Not looking forward to the weekend at all

:oldunsure:

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8 hours ago, Alex P Keaton said:

2-4 weeks after I get vaccinated (probably this May/June/July), I'm done wearing a mask except perhaps somewhere really crowded. 

I'll continue to wear one simply because I realize no one else around me will have any inkling that I have bee vaccinated and I'd prefer not to make them feel uncomfortable.

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1 hour ago, DallasDMac said:

I'll continue to wear one simply because I realize no one else around me will have any inkling that I have bee vaccinated and I'd prefer not to make them feel uncomfortable.

That's completely fair.   I'm hopeful that with people getting vaccinated left & right, hey, maybe folks out there in the world will stop jumping to conclusions about the vaccine status of strangers.

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32 minutes ago, Alex P Keaton said:

That's completely fair.   I'm hopeful that with people getting vaccinated left & right, hey, maybe folks out there in the world will stop jumping to conclusions about the vaccine status of strangers.

That will happen.  But what also will happen (probably already) is the various forms of non-believers will say they've been vaccinated.  Masks are going to start coming off in droves methinks.  By summer anyway.

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2 minutes ago, Rodrigo Duterte said:

That will happen.  But what also will happen (probably already) is the various forms of non-believers will say they've been vaccinated.  Masks are going to start coming off in droves methinks.  By summer anyway.

Probably.   Fortunately the vaccinated people will be (not 100% but nearly) fine.  If some other folks refuse to get vaccinated and thus get very ill, that's on them.

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My wife's cousin and her husband (both ~50 years old) were both hospitalized with COVID earlier this week.  She was released today. Her husband is still there and has low blood oxygen levels.  Not sure on any more of the medical details.

They have 3 kids, 1 still in high school.   I can't imagine what those kids were thinking when both their parents got sick at the same time... 

Hope he recovers soon.

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11 hours ago, Doug B said:

Wait ... what are you saying?

If you're saying "mysterious aerosol infection from 20 feet away really doesn't happen, even indoors" ... I agree with you save for maybe a 1-in-a-billion viral luck shot.
 

I think that happens much more often than surface transmission.

What I am saying is that you cant claim the majority of spread is from droplets but then also in the same breath say in poorly ventilated areas. Droplets arent really affected by ventilation. Aerosols are. 

 

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1 hour ago, Alex P Keaton said:

That's completely fair.   I'm hopeful that with people getting vaccinated left & right, hey, maybe folks out there in the world will stop jumping to conclusions about the vaccine status of strangers.

That will happen eventually. But when my two weeks on shot two is up in 10 days, the overall vaccine rate of San Antonio will still be pathetically low overall, even when talking folks with a single shot. The "left and right" phase seems quite a ways off yet.

 

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