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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread


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This is important and worth quoting -- again from Zeynep Tufenki in The Atlantic:

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As Paul Sax, an infectious-disease doctor at Boston’s Brigham & Women’s Hospital, put it in early December, it would be enormously surprising “if these highly effective vaccines didn’t also make people less likely to transmit.” From multiple studies, we already knew that asymptomatic individuals—those who never developed COVID-19 despite being infected—were much less likely to transmit the virus. The vaccine trials were reporting 95 percent reductions in any form of symptomatic disease. In December, we learned that Moderna had swabbed some portion of trial participants to detect asymptomatic, silent infections, and found an almost two-thirds reduction even in such cases. The good news kept pouring in. Multiple studies found that, even in those few cases where breakthrough disease occurred in vaccinated people, their viral loads were lower—which correlates with lower rates of transmission. Data from vaccinated populations further confirmed what many experts expected all along: Of course these vaccines reduce transmission.

 

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My dad has been sick for a few weeks.  My mom called me today to say he was about to die.  I said some final words to him and he could hear me but was unable to respond.  He passed a short time later.

Not to derail anything, but we had our baby last night! She's doing amazingly well. Due to the hospital's pandemic policies, I had to leave her right after my wife was released from recovery. I can't

On a positive note, my wife gave birth to our first child this morning!! We were expecting our daughter to be born in the first week of April, which does not align very well if this hospital sees a ma

2 minutes ago, culdeus said:

2) This thing is mostly spread by people that are symptomatic.  The fear of asymptomatic spread was for the most part overblown.  There simply isn't much compelling out there on Asymptomatic spread.

When you write this ... do you distinguish between (a) infected persons who never have symptoms and (b) "presymptomatics" who can spread illness in those two or three days before their symptoms become apparent?

One thing I thought was pretty locked down was that infected persons could and did shed virus for a few days before they came down with symptoms. I could see those who remain asymptomatic (e.g. their immune system beat the virus quickly) not being all that contagious -- their viral load probably stays low the whole way through. But what about the presymptomatic infected folks who are going to be sick as dogs in a day or two, but look fine now?

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10 minutes ago, culdeus said:

4) Prior exposure to similar but non COV19 viruses played a bigger role than previously let on.  Our lack of exposure to COV viruses in day to day by mostly staying home or masked increased the risk as we got closer to the end of the year as that resistance was waning.  

For precision, I'll amend this to "... similar but non-COVID-19 coronaviruses" and I agree with you. When the story of COVID-19 is written in 2030 or whatever, one of the stories will be "If you had a bad cold sometime after 2000-05 or so, you had pretty good COVID-19 protection without knowing it".

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And yet, from the beginning, a good chunk of the public-facing messaging and news articles implied or claimed that vaccines won’t protect you against infecting other people or that we didn’t know if they would, when both were false. I found myself trying to convince people in my own social network that vaccines weren’t useless against transmission, and being bombarded on social media with claims that they were.

What went wrong? The same thing that’s going wrong right now with the reporting on whether vaccines will protect recipients against the new viral variants. Some outlets emphasize the worst or misinterpret the research. Some public-health officials are wary of encouraging the relaxation of any precautions. Some prominent experts on social media—even those with seemingly solid credentials—tend to respond to everything with alarm and sirens. So the message that got heard was that vaccines will not prevent transmission, or that they won’t work against new variants, or that we don’t know if they will. What the public needs to hear, though, is that based on existing data, we expect them to work fairly well—but we’ll learn more about precisely how effective they’ll be over time, and that tweaks may make them even better.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Chadstroma said:

I am still on the fence. I will prob get tested in a week or so. If I had/have it like I suspect, I will skip the vaccine. 

If I do not/did not... not sure. Honestly leaning towards no now where as before my daughter/son got it I was leaning to yes. 

We had the virus in early January and neither of us plan on getting the vaccine at the moment. I would have if we never got it but for now I'm ok with waiting a couple of months to make a decision.

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10 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Gov Wolf of Pa announced today that all of Pa’s Johnson n Johnson vaccine will go to teachers and school staff

The rest of Pa citizens will get moderna n phizer

joke imo

 

It is a joke is if it doesnt get teachers back in school and just allowed them to skip the line. But if using the one dose solution gets them back in school asap, why is that a joke?

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11 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Gov Wolf of Pa announced today that all of Pa’s Johnson n Johnson vaccine will go to teachers and school staff

The rest of Pa citizens will get moderna n phizer

joke imo

It is interesting to see how all the different states are going about their vaccine distributions. This may not be a bad if the idea is to get teachers back to work since the JnJ vaccine only requires one dose and would allow them to be protected sooner.

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29 minutes ago, Doug B said:
36 minutes ago, culdeus said:

2) This thing is mostly spread by people that are symptomatic.  The fear of asymptomatic spread was for the most part overblown.  There simply isn't much compelling out there on Asymptomatic spread.

When you write this ... do you distinguish between (a) infected persons who never have symptoms and (b) "presymptomatics" who can spread illness in those two or three days before their symptoms become apparent?

One thing I thought was pretty locked down was that infected persons could and did shed virus for a few days before they came down with symptoms. I could see those who remain asymptomatic (e.g. their immune system beat the virus quickly) not being all that contagious -- their viral load probably stays low the whole way through. But what about the presymptomatic infected folks who are going to be sick as dogs in a day or two, but look fine now?

Going to add that I think only a select group of mouth breathing asymptomatics actually ever spread this. 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

 

It is a joke is if it doesnt get teachers back in school and just allowed them to skip the line. But if using the one dose solution gets them back in school asap, why is that a joke?

There’s no guarantee that they’ll go back 

The school year is nearly over

Why should they jump the line over other workers? A lot of people have jobs where they can’t even social distance the whole day ?

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36 minutes ago, Doug B said:

When you write this ... do you distinguish between (a) infected persons who never have symptoms and (b) "presymptomatics" who can spread illness in those two or three days before their symptoms become apparent?

One thing I thought was pretty locked down was that infected persons could and did shed virus for a few days before they came down with symptoms. I could see those who remain asymptomatic (e.g. their immune system beat the virus quickly) not being all that contagious -- their viral load probably stays low the whole way through. But what about the presymptomatic infected folks who are going to be sick as dogs in a day or two, but look fine now?

A few of the thinly supported studies called into question whether the timing of what we call/indicate as pre/post/non symptomatic is flawed.  That there is self-reporting issues with this, as admitting you were symptomatic is tantamount to a crime/moral issues.  These are more psychological studies but go the central point in that presym/sym is self reported and prone to bias.  

My guess is people spreading this were symptomatic in some way and didn't want to admit it so they could sleep at night after killing grandma.  

Again, I'm not claiming I have evidence for this. It's a hypothesis.  

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5 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

Going to add that I think only a select group of mouth breathing asymptomatics actually ever spread this.

Unpack a bit? Do you mean that asymptomatic spread should barely exist but for some reckless behavior among 'mouthbreathers'? Or something else?

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Just now, culdeus said:

Again, I'm not claiming I have evidence for this. It's a hypothesis.  

It's all good. It helps to flesh things out and see what underlies what other people are thinking.

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1 minute ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

There’s no guarantee that they’ll go back 

The school year is nearly over

Why should they jump the line over other workers? A lot of people have jobs where they can’t even social distance the whole day ?

I agree that they could easily take the vaccine and still say they were then staying home. That would suck. But one thing is for sure is that would kill the support teachers get for future issues. Parents would never forget that.

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7 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Unpack a bit? Do you mean that asymptomatic spread should barely exist but for some reckless behavior among 'mouthbreathers'? Or something else?

No I literally mean the process of breathing through the mouth. I am trying to find the study but something like 30% of people that breath through their mouth a certain way emit a massively increased % of aerosol particles. 

Because of breathing through your mouth a certain it would cause a part of your airway to be drier and the particles broke off more efficiently and made their way into the air. If they covered that part of the airway with saline, it practically eliminated the emissions.

ETA: I am not having good luck finding it. It was a flu study and I remember it was definitely saline because they had tried something else first and I believe just using the saline to rinse off the other chemical let them stumble upon this. I remember thinking that this would really explain super spreading events quite well too. I gotta hit the road, but will look more later. It was all pretty fascinating.  

Edited by parasaurolophus
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1 hour ago, jamny said:

We had the virus in early January and neither of us plan on getting the vaccine at the moment. I would have if we never got it but for now I'm ok with waiting a couple of months to make a decision.

I am not anti-vaccination. I typically get flu shots every year, the kids get all their vaccines, etc. But I am not seeing the point of getting it for now. My thinking is if I have/had it.... then I have natural antibodies plus on top of that for me it was barely noticeable and honestly if I wasn't hyper sensitive about anything and everything wondering if it was rona or not, I wouldn't have noticed it at all. 

 

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1 hour ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Gov Wolf of Pa announced today that all of Pa’s Johnson n Johnson vaccine will go to teachers and school staff

The rest of Pa citizens will get moderna n phizer

joke imo

What is the joke about that? (not baiting you, honestly have no clue what you are saying there or why)

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1 minute ago, Chadstroma said:

What is the joke about that? (not baiting you, honestly have no clue what you are saying there or why)

 

1 hour ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

There’s no guarantee that they’ll go back 

The school year is nearly over

Why should they jump the line over other workers? A lot of people have jobs where they can’t even social distance the whole day ?

 

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1 hour ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

There’s no guarantee that they’ll go back 

The school year is nearly over

Why should they jump the line over other workers? A lot of people have jobs where they can’t even social distance the whole day ?

Because them not working because of contracting covid has a far bigger effect on far more people than just about any other worker out there.

IMO, teachers should have been lumped in with health care workers and 65+

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Just now, Chadstroma said:

So..... what does the different manufacturers different vaccines have to do with it? 

I think Kilgore Trout answered it... because the J&J is one does versus two and the wait between shots. 

Yea, it would be pretty silly if it was not tied to the teachers getting back in the classroom. Otherwise, they don't need any priority for sure. I mean, I don't think zoom is a recognized venue for spreading. 

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Just now, dawgtrails said:

Because them not working because of contracting covid has a far bigger effect on far more people than just about any other worker out there.

IMO, teachers should have been lumped in with health care workers and 65+

IF they were in the classroom yes. IF they are not, then it is pointless. My kid's school is up and running and has been through most of the school year. There was one small outbreak which shut down the school but that was more about being careful as there were people at a golf outing (why they had that I have NO idea) that had it and the people that needed to be quarantined plus people already out they just had to go to remote learning for two weeks. 

The other outbreak has been the one my kids got caught in.... it seems it shut down two grades plus my sons 2nd grade class. 

It is a small catholic primary through middle school. The classrooms are small and the overall campus is small and tight. If they can do it then all schools can do it. 

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14 minutes ago, dawgtrails said:

Because them not working because of contracting covid has a far bigger effect on far more people than just about any other worker out there

 


A lot of them haven’t worked here in a year. 
Joe says everyone will have access to a shot by May. Why rush into it now?

And again, the school year is 3/4 over

There are people with medical issues that can’t get an appt. Shouldn’t they go before young healthy teachers ?
 

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On 2/29/2020 at 6:21 PM, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Early days, but...

The estimated infection rate in the population is currently modeled to be ~30%.

Estimates on severe cases seems like they're in the 10-14% range of all cases.

So maybe 3-4% of the population ends up with a severe case. That's ~10-12MM people.

If overall mortality is .75% - 1%, then ~700-900k total in the US.

Obviously that's the scenario for a full blown pandemic.  Hopefully it's not that bad, but this is what's got people worked up.

Sadly, this isn't going to be too far off the mark by the time we get everyone vaccinated at the end of 2021.

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8 hours ago, Alex P Keaton said:

We have an individualistic-minded society, right or wrong, good or bad.  It's part of what makes us the greatest nation on earth -- and 90% of the time that is great, 10% of the time it really sucks.

I didn't realize people still believed this. Not knocking you, I'm just surprised to see anyone still feels this way.

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2 hours ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Gov Wolf of Pa announced today that all of Pa’s Johnson n Johnson vaccine will go to teachers and school staff

The rest of Pa citizens will get moderna n phizer

joke imo

What is bad about this?

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J&J should IMO be used for high benefit recipients rather those with high risk factors. Groups that have high exposure risk, low morbidity risk but their vaccination brings great public benefit. Teachers fit that. Getting them vaccinated makes in person learning safer, decreases the risk of interruptions in schooling and most importantly, decreases the reasons not to go back in person. I would have prioritized them before this for the same reasons.

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5 minutes ago, DallasDMac said:
1 hour ago, Alex P Keaton said:

Feel free to name one that is better, on balance

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/quality-of-life-rankings

:shrug:

You're both high-quality posters and great dudes, but I hope you will take this debate to the PSF or anywhere else, please.  In fact, I think tim might have had a thread over there about American exceptionalism.  He has a thread about everything.

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Just now, krista4 said:

You're both high-quality posters and great dudes, but I hope you will take this debate to the PSF or anywhere else, please.  In fact, I think tim might have had a thread over there about American exceptionalism.  He has a thread about everything.

Thx for the nudge, will do.

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5 minutes ago, Alex P Keaton said:

Why do you live here?

Why wouldn't I? Family is all here, mother, kids, grandkids. etc. Job is here. Medical care is here. It isn't like picking up and moving to another country is simple. Especially in the current environment, gaining citizenship in another country can be a long and expensive process. That being said, not being able or willing to pick up and leave right now doesn't mean I have to feel this is the number one country in the world. In fact, that seems like a really odd take to me.

Edit: Message received and valid point Krista. I'll shut this convo down.

Edited by DallasDMac
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3 minutes ago, Alex P Keaton said:

Edited because I can’t delete and am afraid of krista ;)

 

3 minutes ago, Alex P Keaton said:

Thx for the nudge, will do.

:lmao:  I know this thread gets into some sidebars now and then, but it's generally kept on focus and been a great source of information.  Thanks!

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2 minutes ago, DallasDMac said:

Edit: Message received and valid point Krista. I'll shut this convo down.

Thanks!  See, I told you you're both great guys.  :thumbup: 

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Just now, krista4 said:

Thanks!  See, I told you you're both great guys.  :thumbup: 

In our defense, I don't think it was a contentious discussion, just a difference in viewpoints. But definitely heading off topic, so point taken!

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3 minutes ago, DallasDMac said:

In our defense, I don't think it was a contentious discussion, just a difference in viewpoints. But definitely heading off topic, so point taken!

Maybe not contentious between the two of you, but was going to invite others to pop in with possibly more contentious and politically charged takes.

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5 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

would you hang out with those guys without their wives?  Or is there concern they could bring something home?

What exactly are you asking???

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2 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

What exactly are you asking???

Hahaha. Heading back home in a month and debating trying to hangout with a couple of friends. The guys got vaccinated but I don’t think their wives are eligible yet and obviously the kids aren’t vaccinated. 

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15 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

So if you were fully vaccinated as were 3-4 other friends, but their wives and kids were not, would you hang out with those guys without their wives?  Or is there concern they could bring something home?

I wouldnt do it, but i dont think it is scoldable behavior and wouldnt judge somebody that did. 

Once my wife is vaccinated I will pretty do anything, even if I am not vaccinated

 

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9 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

I wouldnt do it, but i dont think it is scoldable behavior and wouldnt judge somebody that did. 

Once my wife is vaccinated I will pretty do anything, even if I am not vaccinated

 

Pegging?

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21 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

So if you were fully vaccinated as were 3-4 other friends, but their wives and kids were not, would you hang out with those guys without their wives?  Or is there concern they could bring something home?

I’d go back to the ‘bubble’ considerations. Once every adult in your bubble is vaccinated, game on. As for others, that’s their decision. The risk is quite low at that point.

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21 minutes ago, Fear The Turtle said:

My 97 year old father finally got his first vaccination (Moderna) on Monday. No side effects so far.

Awesome.

My 89 year old mother still won't do it due to crazy immune system responses to meds in her life.  And the fact her brother had bad responses to flu vaccines (twice, then never took it again).

We mentioned Hawaii for her 90th in June.  Loves Hawaii.  NO!  A nice mountain lake we used to go to growing up (sentimental).  NOPE.  A closer (no flight) beach rental home with family only.  NO!  A nice party w/ friends at her home.  NO, I don't want any fanfare!

I then suggested that if she took the JnJ vax (she trusts them from some marketing 50 years ago), we would go to Vegas.  Done deal, didn't think twice, lol.

 

Just need to figure out how/where to get that JnJ vax.

Edited by Rodrigo Duterte
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46 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

So if you were fully vaccinated as were 3-4 other friends, but their wives and kids were not, would you hang out with those guys without their wives?  Or is there concern they could bring something home?

Lemon party?

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56 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

So if you were fully vaccinated as were 3-4 other friends, but their wives and kids were not, would you hang out with those guys without their wives?  Or is there concern they could bring something home?

Sure. Just wear a condom

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1 hour ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

Hahaha. Heading back home in a month and debating trying to hangout with a couple of friends. The guys got vaccinated but I don’t think their wives are eligible yet and obviously the kids aren’t vaccinated. 

We are going on a family vacation in June. Taking my mom to finally see her other kids/grandkids. The kids won’t be vaccinated and I wonder if my sister will be, but my wife and I and everybody else going will be so I feel kind of comfortable about it. I worry about my son not being so, but kids are going to school every day and it seems to be safe so I’m going to try not to worry. 

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They just said on the news that people in Texas without a mask who go into stores which require a mask (most of the national chains) are subject to a fine if they dont comply. You've got the Texas governor telling you one thing and all the stores telling you the complete opposite. Really setting everyone up for success here.  :no:

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