If the variants circumvent the vaccine then we're ####ed and this is life as we know it.
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
Doug B
Footballguy
I think the chance of this happening is virtually nil. The popular media is generally seizing on the necessary hedge of the responsible scientist.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
IIRC the vaccines work by attacking the spike protein which is a defining characteristic of the virus, including all of the variants.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
If the variants were going to evade the vaccines in large numbers, it's likely that we'd be seeing a high rate of reinfection now in the people who got COVID last year. But we're not seeing that, so odds are good that "original" COVID antibodies are effective against the variants. And that, by extension, the vaccine is too.
Additionally, the rate of death from COVID among people who've had the vaccine is effectively zero. Which probably wouldn't be the case if the vaccines were ineffective and the variants were evading it.
Additionally, the rate of death from COVID among people who've had the vaccine is effectively zero. Which probably wouldn't be the case if the vaccines were ineffective and the variants were evading it.
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Then what is this guy talking about?
https://nypost.com/2021/03/21/new-yorks-covid-variant-may-infect-vaccinated-residents/
Cjw_55106
Footballguy
To be honest, The caveat meant nothing to me. Obviously the caveats have always been in play.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
Right. "Could happen" ... "may happen" ... etc.. Hedging language. In short -- the danger of variants is being sensationalized.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Yeah, Arizona is about middle of the pack for states in percentage of people who have received at least one shot and percentage of people fully vaccinated. If they are already opening up to everyone 16+, that seems like a sign that a pretty high percentage of people aren’t signing up to get vaccinated. Important thing now is to figure out if it’s because they really don’t want the vaccine or if something else is in play.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Ran into some former neighbors and their elderly (grand)parents today while out walking in the 'hood. The grandparents are awesome people who live in South Dakota. Both had COVID back in the fall. And both told me today that they aren't getting a vaccine because "what's the point, we've already had it and it wasn't that big of a deal." The husband was in bed for 10 days and his oxygen dropped into the high 80s.....but since he made it through and is healthy now, he doesn't see why it would be dangerous to get a 2nd time.
Ugh.
It was a decent surprise since they went from 55+ to 16+ but I expected it soon. It’s the way to delaying appointments from going unused. We had four doses that had to be used tonight before they expired and we just barely found people even after making announcements in the store.GroveDiesel said:
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
It also means a lot of people in the 16-55 age range were finding ways to qualify before they dropped the age requirement.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
This virus, masks, and vaccines somehow being politicized is the most dangerous thing that’s happened in a long time. Did we have these issues to this degree for the spanish flu, small pox, or polio???Alex P Keaton said:
MTskibum
Footballguy
Alex P Keaton said:
Why is that bad, they should let other people get vaccinated now and should get vaccinated closer to the fall again. People who have had the virus SHOULD be turning down the vaccine unless they had it in March of last year.
The goal is to help as many people as possible right now and the people who have already had Covid do not need the vaccine.
Now the CDC director is talking about another potential surge.Doug B said:
https://nypost.com/2021/03/22/cdc-covid-variants-are-taking-over-us-could-see-another-surge/
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Here is an interesting article about 1918 and many of the recommendations.
One other thing i read that was very different back then was the way communities were mobilized to help. I mean the boy scouts were enlisted and actually went door to door in some cities to help identify the sick so that treatment could come to them rather than have people congregate at hospitals because they realized quickly that this would lead to more spread and it helped to protect doctors and nurses.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Yes, and smart people were predicting a year ago that masks would get politicized.
Battersbox
Footballguy
I see nothing wrong with grandpa's take here. If he really already had it, there is zero reason for him to get the vaccine.Alex P Keaton said:
This pandemic has been so prominent in everyone's lives for so long now that accepted practices from the past 100 years are making people say 'ugh'.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Isn't the evidence that natural immunity might only last 3-6 months? Not sure what the evidence says about severity of re-infection or whether "long-hauler" becomes more or less likely. Too many unknowns -- why not get the free and safe vaccine?
The Texas Roadhouse founder/CEO literally killed himself because of his long-hauler symptoms apparently.
MTskibum
Footballguy
They know it lasts until 8 months, but it may be longer because as more time goes by we can study the initially infected group more.
There is no reason that someone who had Covid-19 in the fall should get a vaccine right now. They should wait until more people who have not had the virus have been vaccinated first.
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/lasting-immunity-found-after-recovery-covid-19
The immune systems of more than 95% of people who recovered from COVID-19 had durable memories of the virus up to eight months after infection.
worrierking
Footballguy
I agree with this. Many of our responses have been based on a lack of certainty rather than the most likely outcome. Every epidemiologist believes that the virus will confer fairly strong immunity for a significant period in the vast majority of people, yet out of an abundance of over caution, we have decided to use vaccines on previously infected people because we just can't be 100% sure. It's the same with the vaccines preventing spread of the disease. Everyone has believed it will do that but since there is no double blind scientific study published and peer-reviewed yet, they are asking vaccinated people to wear masks and socially distance.
I get it, but they need to be more forthcoming. Please don't treat us like children. Most people will make wise decisions.
Let direct caregivers who have had COVID get the vaccine, but ask everyone else who has had it to wait until it is open for everyone.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
I don't really have an educated opinion on whether they should wait or not - I'll just say, the idea of waiting to sign-up is probably only a few more weeks in almost all states. I'd be more concerned that he's going to not get it at all.
Doug B
Footballguy
Straight from the first paragraph -- it's all conditional:
Talking about another potential surge based on the presence of variants isn't so bad as long as she's leaving it conditional and speaking to serve as a warning to the general public not to cast aside mitigation efforts too early. Which she seems to be doing:
Nothing is set is stone, and nothing is yet unavoidable. The eventual outcome is up to us as a nation and as a society.
Battersbox
Footballguy
There is a bit of a grey area here for an elderly man who had a meaningful case of Covid just 6 months ago.
The risk/reward should be left up to him. It has been documented that those with prior infections often have stronger side effects to the vaccine. And being elderly, it makes sense that those same side effects could be more dangerous for him than for a younger person. Not wanting to risk side effects for the unknown chance of reinfection is perfectly reasonable, imo.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
I have no issues with people who don't want to get the vaccine - but I also have no issues with placing limitations on what people who are not vaccinated can do.
Battersbox
Footballguy
Disagree 100%. This man should have no restrictions on what he can do. I can't fathom why people think they have a right to take away freedoms from others because there is a slight possibility that 100 years of accepted knowledge regarding immunity could be wrong.
This is what I was talking about when I said the past year has warped how we think about things.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
AAABatteries
Footballguy
We can agree to disagree but I have no issue if airlines or large events want to prevent non-vaccinated individuals from participating. We take away people’s “freedoms” all the time.
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AAABatteries
Footballguy
I mean the polling isn’t lying - there’s a lot of people who won’t get vaccinated.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
I think a lot of people (including me) have assumed that some of the vaccine hesitancy was soft, and that people would change their minds when they see millions of other Americans getting vaccinated without issue. Doesn't seem like that's happened yet.
Battersbox
Footballguy
Taking away 'freedoms' is quite a slippery slope. I think the burden of proof should be on those wishing to restrict others, not the other way around. And to date, there is no proof this man is a risk to anyone.
Yeah I forgot some people only trust CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/21/health/us-coronavirus-sunday/index.html
AAABatteries
Footballguy
I have no issue with that if experts say there’s no risk - right now they are saying to get vaccinated so they appear to be saying there is a risk to not doing so. But I’m happy to wait for more details.
belljr
Footballguy
AAABatteries
Footballguy
I had hoped that too and this hits close to home - my 72 year old mother won’t get vaccinated and her sister won’t (she’s ~70). They’ve bought in to lies spread on social media.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Exactly. People act like freedom means no laws or rules to follow.no smoking on flights, no weapons - not exactly the same but similar
Getting on an airplane isn’t a right or taking away freedom. As a business, I’d worry about the liability from the crew or passengers so if I say I won’t take the risk of putting a non-vaccinated on my airplanes, I see no issue with that. There’s no place in the world you can’t get to by driving or on a boat.no smoking on flights, no weapons - not exactly the same but similar
Not to me. All the top priorities have gone so why not just open it up. Walgreens doesn’t have unbooked appointments near me and I’m in the “South.” It’s not fully open in NC but I think it’s supposed to be soon.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
I guess it would require a deep dive into exactly what the different priority groups are in the various states. I just know that in Maryland over 70% of the adult population supposedly falls into one of the priority groups. If you've only given the first shot to 25% of the population, then there should be plenty of priority people still to be vaccinated before opening it to everyone.
Maybe Maryland is the weird one but I think we're going by the CDC guidance so it seems like most other states would be similar.
Battersbox
Footballguy
No, it's not like that at all.
This man has a very good reason to believe the risks of getting the vaccine are simply not worth it for him personally.
Why do you have the right to force him to make a health choice that could be harmful to himself just because there is a slim possibility that his choice could affect you? I mean, we allow people to do lots of things that could affect others, because the risk is miniscule. Just allowing people to drive on the road alongside you is risky to you, technically.
What's next, banning people who refuse a flu shot from large gatherings? You could make the argument that a flu carrier presents as much risk to you as a Covid carrier (depending on your age). And flu shots have a long history of having fewer side effects, so there are fewer reasons to not get one. But we have never discussed banning people who neglect flu shots from events in the past.
Battersbox
Footballguy
I don't think this is a good comparison. Smoking on a flight definitely affects others on the flight, there's no doubt. This man not getting a Covid vaccine is unlikely to ever affect anyone but himself.
I believe nurses and doctors are required to get flu shots in several hospitals and kids are required to be up to date on their vaccines to goto school. You act like this doesn't happen now.
Battersbox
Footballguy
I think part of the reason there is a drive to vaccinate everyone, regardless of their infection history, is simply because it's much faster than determining who has been infected in the past.
I'll change my opinion if the facts change, agree.
