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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (15 Viewers)

Alex P Keaton said:
I'm not trying to pick on you, but your list of things you will and won't do seems kind of random.
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Well I am vaccinated and under the assumption that cases are going to start to dramatically decline between now and July. 
 

There is little evidence of transmission on planes and I would wear an N95 mask. I would only travel for work. 
 

I don’t expect to be asked to come back to the office until July/August which would be via train. Would wear a mask. 
 

Massage, I made sure I was the first client of the day. She is a solo practitioner with a small client base and has an air filter sufficient for the small space and we both are masked. Nobody else is in the building. 
 

I am only half considering the baseball game. One reason is I had tickets to a canceled Sixers game last year and StubHub is only honoring the credit until December 2021. Fauci saying he wouldn’t hesitate to attend an outdoor baseball game at a MLB park also alleviates some concern. 
 

Generally speaking, outdoors doesn’t concern me.  
 

I am just nervous being inside with more than like 10-20 people that I don’t know— hence the indoor restaurants and conferences. I just know that via work, these things are going to start being asked about again soon. It already has started really, but no pressure yet. 
 

Maybe it is somewhat random. It feels like ptsd at times being nervous about encounters  and other times I just want to get back to the office etc. 

 
Leeroy Jenkins said:
Well I am vaccinated and under the assumption that cases are going to start to dramatically decline between now and July. 
 

There is little evidence of transmission on planes and I would wear an N95 mask. I would only travel for work. 
 

I don’t expect to be asked to come back to the office until July/August which would be via train. Would wear a mask. 
 

Massage, I made sure I was the first client of the day. She is a solo practitioner with a small client base and has an air filter sufficient for the small space and we both are masked. Nobody else is in the building. 
 

I am only half considering the baseball game. One reason is I had tickets to a canceled Sixers game last year and StubHub is only honoring the credit until December 2021. Fauci saying he wouldn’t hesitate to attend an outdoor baseball game at a MLB park also alleviates some concern. 
 

Generally speaking, outdoors doesn’t concern me.  
 

I am just nervous being inside with more than like 10-20 people that I don’t know— hence the indoor restaurants and conferences. I just know that via work, these things are going to start being asked about again soon. It already has started really, but no pressure yet. 
 

Maybe it is somewhat random. It feels like ptsd at times being nervous about encounters  and other times I just want to get back to the office etc. 
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You definitely sound like you have PTSD. No need to be nervous

 
Terminalxylem said:
Doubt it. These clots are associated with low platelet counts; birth control clots are not.
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if that is the case, should somebody with Von Willebrands (sp?) be more at risk after the shot, in your off-the-cuff opinion? 

My nephew has that and just got his J&J shot right before they halted use. My sister is freaking out. 

 
I keep seeing numbers that the US is 24% fully vaccinated and about 40% have has at least one shot.  It is unclear to me whether this is a percentage of eligible adults or of total population (including kids). If TOTAL, then that is really great.  We don't eradicate this thing at 50% vaccination, but it will be beaten down pretty good.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Fine with me since I get annual check-ups anyway, but this is going to be a problem.  I don't see most people getting boosters once we get past the first round of vaccination.  Hopefully folks keep plugging away on vaccine research and can come up with something longer-lasting.

(Then again, this is Pfizer which we all know is kind of a low class vaccine anyway.  #teammoderna)
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Moderna is working on a booster that would be combined with the annual flu shot (one shot).  That might make it easier on everyone to get it. 

 
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worrierking said:
Moderna is working on a booster that would be combined with the annual flu shot (one shot).  That might make it easier on everyone to get it. 
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There is also a lot of research into using messenger-RNA technology to make new (and more effective?) vaccines for older viral infections, like influenza. Here's a representative article:

Duke researchers working on mRNA flu vaccine that would last up to 5 years (WCNC CBS-17, Durham, NC, 4/14/2021)

Quick-read article that at the same time manages to impart a ton of information about the state of mRNA vaccine research post-COVID.

 
ProstheticRGK said:
if that is the case, should somebody with Von Willebrands (sp?) be more at risk after the shot, in your off-the-cuff opinion? 

My nephew has that and just got his J&J shot right before they halted use. My sister is freaking out. 
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Doubt it. Von Willebrand disease is extremely common, but usually asymptomatic. When severe, it increases bleeding, not clotting risk. Although there is an uncommon subtype associated with autoimmunity, it usually isn’t.

The clotting disorder they’re investigating seems to be an immune related reduction in platelets with clots in unusual places. 

In any event, it appears to be exceedingly rare, so even if a link to the vaccine is established there’s no reason to freak out. Does your sister worry about other unlikely, but life threatening events? Some perspective

 
parasaurolophus said:
Thread and paper courtesy of some of the best minds of this pandemic. I have mentioned all but one of them on here individually before. Couldnt believe when I saw they were all co-authors of this. 
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The Lancet article is a quick accessible read considering the publication. I was curious what you would think of the following excerpt:
 

Third, asymptomatic or presymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from people who are not coughing or sneezing is likely to account for at least a third, and perhaps up to 59%, of all transmission globally and is a key way SARS-CoV-2 has spread around the world, supportive of a predominantly airborne mode of transmission. Direct measurements show that speaking produces thousands of aerosol particles and few large droplets, which supports the airborne route.
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I've deleted the numbered citations but for further reading, for this excerpt they drew from References #8 and #9 (linked at bottom of article).

 
Doug B said:
The Lancet article is a quick accessible read considering the publication. I was curious what you would think of the following excerpt:
 

I've deleted the numbered citations but for further reading, for this excerpt they drew from References #8 and #9 (linked at bottom of article).
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You seem a teensy bit obsessed with asking me this.

Citation 8 was a modeling study where they used as baseline paramters that asymptomatic carriers were 75% as infectious as symptomatic. They got this figure from early studies in china and calculated backward a pattern of infectivity using a formula. 

 
Leeroy Jenkins said:
I keep seeing numbers that the US is 24% fully vaccinated and about 40% have has at least one shot.  It is unclear to me whether this is a percentage of eligible adults or of total population (including kids). If TOTAL, then that is really great.  We don't eradicate this thing at 50% vaccination, but it will be beaten down pretty good.
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Per the CDC chart on vaccinations, about 126M people in the US have received at least one shot, which is about 38% of the total population and about 48% of adults 18+. 80% of people 65+ have received at least one shot. 

 
FBG26 said:
Per the CDC chart on vaccinations, about 126M people in the US have received at least one shot, which is about 38% of the total population and about 48% of adults 18+. 80% of people 65+ have received at least one shot. 
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I know we are going to plateau a bit soon, but I think we have enough runway to get to 50%+ vaccinated.  Which won't eradicate, but really will make an impact. 

A disgusting stat I saw today though, was that nearly 50% of assisted living staff in PA refused the vaccine.  Those residents are the most likely, other than cancer patients, to have less than the 90% efficacy.  Terrible.  

 
IvanKaramazov said:
This seems like the kind of job where we should expect people to get vaccinated as part of their professional responsibilities.  
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I agree.  And I assume that once these vaccines are no longer "emergency use" that any job that already requires certain vaccinations as a condition of employment, will be able to add the COVID vaccine to the list.  In a collective bargaining situation, it may require something further.  

 
Doug B said:
Only because it's been a point of disagreement, not out of malice. I will consider your post a request to refrain, and I'm happy to oblige.
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To be honest, I dont recall you ever saying that you actually disagreed. I have no problem with a back and forth. It just seemed mostly you asking me questions, which was odd to me. I mean I assumed you probably disagreed and that was why you were asking, but it also seemed like it could have been a devils advocate position, which I find to be annoying. 

 
Leeroy Jenkins said:
I know we are going to plateau a bit soon, but I think we have enough runway to get to 50%+ vaccinated.  Which won't eradicate, but really will make an impact. 

A disgusting stat I saw today though, was that nearly 50% of assisted living staff in PA refused the vaccine.  Those residents are the most likely, other than cancer patients, to have less than the 90% efficacy.  Terrible.  
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This is happening all over the country. Nurses too.

 
E-Z Glider said:
It’s ironic that the people who are most upset about wearing masks are also the same people refusing to get the vaccine, thus extending the length of time a mask mandate will be required.

  :argue:
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Yep, the flubros have become anti-vaxers it seems. Had one on FB this AM. A pharmacist no less. Post some right-wing news headline about the "8500 breakthrough cases post-vaccination" and he was ranting about "y'all go ahead and get that highly effective vaccine." Normally I ignore, but caught me in a weak moment so I just chimed in with the denominator of 76 million and the fact that that the "fraction of 1%" that made up that number was actually as good as or better than the rate of most other "normalized" vaccines that most everyone and their children get today. 

 
E-Z Glider said:
It’s ironic that the people who are most upset about wearing masks are also the same people refusing to get the vaccine, thus extending the length of time a mask mandate will be required.

  :argue:
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I dunno. Im pretty annoyed I still have to wear a mask and Im fully vaccinated.

 
jobarules said:
I dunno. Im pretty annoyed I still have to wear a mask and Im fully vaccinated.
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At this point, the "I just follow the science" people should all be veering very strongly away from masking. 

My personal hunch is that the only reason why this isn't happening faster than it already is, is becomes masks have become politicized.  Nobody wants to be the first person in their little group to say "finally, I can burn those masks" because it puts them superficially in the same category as the FluBros.  Eventually that inertia will break and then everybody will drop the masks more or less at once.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
At this point, the "I just follow the science" people should all be veering very strongly away from masking. 

My personal hunch is that the only reason why this isn't happening faster than it already is, is becomes masks have become politicized.  Nobody wants to be the first person in their little group to say "finally, I can burn those masks" because it puts them superficially in the same category as the FluBros.  Eventually that inertia will break and then everybody will drop the masks more or less at once.
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I’ve already told people in my circle that “I’m done wearing a mask on May 6th” which is two weeks post vaccine #2.   Will I still wear it at the grocery store or anywhere it is required?   Sure.  Am I wearing it around unvaccinated people?  Maybe.  Around others who I know are vaccinated?  Um, no, not unless they specifically ask and have a reason for it.

 
parasaurolophus said:
To be honest, I don't recall you ever saying that you actually disagreed [about the prevalence of asymptomatic spread]. I have no problem with a back and forth. It just seemed mostly you asking me questions, which was odd to me. I mean I assumed you probably disagreed and that was why you were asking, but it also seemed like it could have been a devils advocate position, which I find to be annoying. 
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Perhaps the disagreement was a matter of degree -- I thought (and still think) that "secret spread" has accelerated COVID spread beyond where it would have gotten if only the obviously sick could spread it.

Originally, when I conceived of it as "secret spread" ... I was, indeed, thinking strictly of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic carriers. Your disagreement was specific, but helpful for refining the "secret spread" concept in my head. You had written recently that you felt much "asymptomatic" spread was really people failing to accurately self-report their symptoms when faced with the prospect of having sickened others.

Based on your input, I've added "people with light, plausibly-deniable symptoms" and/or "people who successfully hide their symptoms" to the "secret spread" scheme. And then Zeynep and Friends' paper in The Lancet makes the "secret spread" theory all the more plausible.

 
Disclaimer fully vaccinated here so I support the vaccination. That said in the past few weeks two people I know got Covid after the first shot. Now I realize the first shot is depending on what you read 50 to 70% coverage but still odd. The one person is in a public facing job so not unexpected. The other is my brother who is semi-retired and has his own business where literally he might have one or two people a week come into his shop if he has a busy week. his normal stops are to get a coffee and paper at Turkey Hill and maybe take out lunch. He is always masked at those places. Only real other outside contact he normally has is his girlfriend who does work in an office but was tested as well and was negative. He was 3 weeks after the first shot and about to go get his second when he started feeling bad. Luckily so far just been fatigue and some congestion and he's starting to feel better.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
At this point, the "I just follow the science" people should all be veering very strongly away from masking. 

My personal hunch is that the only reason why this isn't happening faster than it already is, is becomes masks have become politicized.  Nobody wants to be the first person in their little group to say "finally, I can burn those masks" because it puts them superficially in the same category as the FluBros.  Eventually that inertia will break and then everybody will drop the masks more or less at once.
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Like I said before, this depends on the local situation.  If <30% of adults are fully vaccinated (+2 weeks from 2nd dose) I think mask mandates should stay in place.  Mask mandates should come off as we approach >50% fully vaccinated.

That's a gut feeling though, not truly science based.

 
The Z Machine said:
Like I said before, this depends on the local situation.  If <30% of adults are fully vaccinated (+2 weeks from 2nd dose) I think mask mandates should stay in place.  Mask mandates should come off as we approach >50% fully vaccinated.

That's a gut feeling though, not truly science based.
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I’m fine with mask mandated staying in place for crowded, indoor establishments that are a necessity.  Like a grocery store or a hospital.  But I’m done with calmly accepting the idiotic mask shaming that goes on at, say, outdoor public parks.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
I’m fine with mask mandated staying in place for crowded, indoor establishments that are a necessity.  Like a grocery store or a hospital.  But I’m done with calmly accepting the idiotic mask shaming that goes on at, say, outdoor public parks.
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Are masks required at your local parks, or more of a request?

 
IvanKaramazov said:
At this point, the "I just follow the science" people should all be veering very strongly away from masking. 
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No they shouldn’t. People remain who are willing and need to be vaccinated, and there are areas in this country where covid is straining healthcare resources. And there’s a bunch of vulnerable people elsewhere on the planet.

Your point is more valid for immunized individuals, but some infection control theatre is also arguably important, to set a good example for nimrods until we get a better handle on the pandemic.

 
Just wanted to give a huge thanks to Terminix.  He has been the single biggest help to me on here, in a thread chock-full of excellent contributors.  I can't count the number of times I've relayed poignant information via a thread on the internet, from some doctor in Hawaii.

I would give you a free lift ticket at the mountain of your choice on a powder day if I could.  Great job, appreciate it.

 
Rodrigo Duterte said:
Just wanted to give a huge thanks to Terminix.  He has been the single biggest help to me on here, in a thread chock-full of excellent contributors.  I can't count the number of times I've relayed poignant information via a thread on the internet, from some doctor in Hawaii.

I would give you a free lift ticket at the mountain of your choice on a powder day if I could.  Great job, appreciate it.
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Thought maybe I was in the fruit trees thread for a second. 

 
Terminalxylem said:
No they shouldn’t. People remain who are willing and need to be vaccinated, and there are areas in this country where covid is straining healthcare resources. And there’s a bunch of vulnerable people elsewhere on the planet.

Your point is more valid for immunized individuals, but some infection control theatre is also arguably important, to set a good example for nimrods until we get a better handle on the pandemic.
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Yeah, I meant vaccinated people.  Obviously unvaccinated people should keep living pandemic life.  Or, just get vaccinated.

As far as infection control theater goes, no thanks.

 
Doug B said:
Perhaps the disagreement was a matter of degree -- I thought (and still think) that "secret spread" has accelerated COVID spread beyond where it would have gotten if only the obviously sick could spread it.

Originally, when I conceived of it as "secret spread" ... I was, indeed, thinking strictly of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic carriers. Your disagreement was specific, but helpful for refining the "secret spread" concept in my head. You had written recently that you felt much "asymptomatic" spread was really people failing to accurately self-report their symptoms when faced with the prospect of having sickened others.

Based on your input, I've added "people with light, plausibly-deniable symptoms" and/or "people who successfully hide their symptoms" to the "secret spread" scheme. And then Zeynep and Friends' paper in The Lancet makes the "secret spread" theory all the more plausible.
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That is a good way to group it. 

Both actually. "Secret spread" and "zeynep and friends". 

 
IvanKaramazov said:
At this point, the "I just follow the science" people should all be veering very strongly away from masking. 

My personal hunch is that the only reason why this isn't happening faster than it already is, is becomes masks have become politicized.  Nobody wants to be the first person in their little group to say "finally, I can burn those masks" because it puts them superficially in the same category as the FluBros.  Eventually that inertia will break and then everybody will drop the masks more or less at once.
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I’m not sure - I’m considering wearing one in certain settings going forward.  I get sick a couple of times each winter and with the reduction in flu it seems to me that distancing and masks can help.  I don’t find wearing one that big a deal and would trade it for not getting sick.  I have no expectation that others will and definitely shouldn’t be forced too.

 
To be fair to folks where it has been tough to get an appointment, I want to give them a week or two from now (everyone 16+ is eligible today) plus the 28 days in-between shots (for Moderna) to get vaccinated, during which time I will continue to wear a mask, socially distance and avoid large crowds, especially indoors. After that? I think it's time to progress to normalcy and I will be hard-pressed past that point to go out of my way much for those who don't/didn't take this seriously. I've been doing everything I can for long enough and frankly I'm about done with the people who can't be bothered for whatever reason they claim. 

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
To be fair to folks where it has been tough to get an appointment, I want to give them a week or two from now (everyone 16+ is eligible today) plus the 28 days in-between shots (for Moderna) to get vaccinated, during which time I will continue to wear a mask, socially distance and avoid large crowds, especially indoors. After that? I think it's time to progress to normalcy and I will be hard-pressed past that point to go out of my way much for those who don't/didn't take this seriously.
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A return to normality is going to be squeezed from both ends for a time -- both from "just a flu!" people AND from "game over man!" people. This is only one email from a super-liberal message board, but this person is by no means alone in these thoughts. This was posted on Saturday 4/17:

Is it safe to stop wearing KN95 face masks and wear only cloth/surgical masks after getting fully vaccinated?

So my husband and I are having a disagreement over when we can finally stop wearing KN95 masks and just wear cloth masks with a surgical mask underneath. He was under the impression that we no longer need to wear KN95 masks once we are fully vaccinated. I told him I haven’t read any guidance recommending that and I plan to wear KN95 masks if I need to be inside a building for a long period of time (like at my medical appointment I have in July). I only feel comfortable wearing a cloth and surgical mask combo if I’m outdoors or need to make a quick trip to the store. Does anyone know what the recommended guidance is nowadays?
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So to them, all the outside air the world over -- in Times Square on New Year's Eve, in the middle of the Gobi Desert, wherever -- represents insta-COVID and insta-death. So we'll be seeing at least some (hopefully small) people masking this way for, IMHO, years to come. And along with that masking will come judgments on those who don't wear masks -- COVID case levels will never be low enough to convince some folks that a return to 2019 is safe for them.

Think about what they've written. Have to wear KN95s. After vaccination. Have to double-masks to go outdoors. After vaccination.

 
Doug B said:
A return to normality is going to be squeezed from both ends for a time -- both from "just a flu!" people AND from "game over man!" people. This is only one email from a super-liberal message board, but this person is by no means alone in these thoughts. This was posted on Saturday 4/17:

So to them, all the outside air the world over -- in Times Square on New Year's Eve, in the middle of the Gobi Desert, wherever -- represents insta-COVID and insta-death. So we'll be seeing at least some (hopefully small) people masking this way for, IMHO, years to come. And along with that masking will come judgments on those who don't wear masks -- COVID case levels will never be low enough to convince some folks that a return to 2019 is safe for them.

Think about what they've written. Have to wear KN95s. After vaccination. Have to double-masks to go outdoors. After vaccination.
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I'll never begrudge those who take it seriously, and will continue to respect those who take the option of wearing masks going forward by giving them a very wide berth in terms of distancing. Hopefully as hospitalizations plummet people like this will feel more comfortable as time goes on. My take is more around the "no mask, no vaccine, open everything up, why are you wearing a mask?!?, businesses can't tell me what to do!" crowd. Just have had it with that attitude. 

 
Doug B said:
Think about what they've written. Have to wear KN95s. After vaccination. Have to double-masks to go outdoors. After vaccination.
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Living up north, I've spent lots of time driving through ice and snow.  That includes a few wipeouts here and there (nothing serious, just a couple of skids/spin-outs).  Those are always unnerving.  When I gather my nerves and start driving again, I constantly feel like my car's rear is swinging or unstable -- intellectually I know that it's all in my head, but I can't shake that lingering feeling of danger.  The only fix is just keep driving until I get used to it again. 

For people who have spent the last year holed up in quarantine, reentry into normal life is probably going to feel something like that.  They'll get over it eventually.

 
Just got my second Moderna today.

I am perfectly fine wearing masks where I am asked to for now but I think that by the end of June most of the mask restrictions and social distance rules should be lifted, especially outdoors. 

 
IvanKaramazov said:
They'll get over it eventually.
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I have elderly relatives that I see all the time. I don't think a return to normal is happening any time within the calendar year, at least. It's potentially too fatal and final to them to take even reasonable risks. Unreason rules the day, because while statistically a life may not be significant in the greater scheme of things, to them, it's theirs, and it's the only one they've got.

I'm totally down with masks and distancing through the year. After that, though, at some point...

 
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Grace Under Pressure said:
To be fair to folks where it has been tough to get an appointment, I want to give them a week or two from now (everyone 16+ is eligible today) plus the 28 days in-between shots (for Moderna) to get vaccinated, during which time I will continue to wear a mask, socially distance and avoid large crowds, especially indoors. After that? I think it's time to progress to normalcy and I will be hard-pressed past that point to go out of my way much for those who don't/didn't take this seriously. I've been doing everything I can for long enough and frankly I'm about done with the people who can't be bothered for whatever reason they claim. 
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I tend to agree with this, but not quite there just yet. In MD, hospitalizations are up ~60% in the last month or so despite tons of vaccinations, so I'm fine following protocols until the numbers get down to a more manageable level.

 
humpback said:
I tend to agree with this, but not quite there just yet. In MD, hospitalizations are up ~60% in the last month or so despite tons of vaccinations, so I'm fine following protocols until the numbers get down to a more manageable level.
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It does make sense to continue to watch the hospitalizations as an indicator of progress. I have to admit to checking them daily.

On Long Island overall hospitalizations (590) and ICU admissions (129) are down a bit after being flat for around a month. This is across 20 hospitals and 2 counties. We have some contacts at the largest hospital in Suffolk County, and they say that they are running at normal operations with 19 in the ICU and 78 overall. Quite manageable is probably the best way to categorize it across the board. Most of the 20 hospitals have fewer than 5 in the ICU. 

From what I understand the monoclonal antibody infusions make a big impact in keeping people out of the ICU, and the bulk of people rotate in and out after receiving treatment. But this is outside of my lane, admittedly.

I agree that conditions are regional and getting things under control, while somewhat nebulous, is key to relaxing protocols. But at a certain point the people who are non-vaccinated are choosing that approach. 

 
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