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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread


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4 hours ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

Friend from my hometown, only a year older than me, went on a mission trip to Africa. Contracted Covid. Was hospitalized. Didn't make it. Two teenage kids and a wife at home. ####. I would assume unvaccinated, just judging from the mentality of the majority of folks from my hometown. Typical southern small town. It upsets me, and quite honestly, pisses me off. *blows out* Thanks for letting me vent. 

Why the #### are you going on a mission trip right now?

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4 hours ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

Friend from my hometown, only a year older than me, went on a mission trip to Africa. Contracted Covid. Was hospitalized. Didn't make it. Two teenage kids and a wife at home. ####. I would assume unvaccinated, just judging from the mentality of the majority of folks from my hometown. Typical southern small town. It upsets me, and quite honestly, pisses me off. *blows out* Thanks for letting me vent. 

Are many countries allowing unvaccinated folks to travel there?  I’m planning a trip to Europe in the next month or so but they require proof of vaccination.

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15 minutes ago, PinkydaPimp said:

Are many countries allowing unvaccinated folks to travel there?  I’m planning a trip to Europe in the next month or so but they require proof of vaccination.

I went to Mexico without proof of vax or a proof of a COVID test.  I had both, but was never asked to show them. 

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1 hour ago, The Z Machine said:

Why the #### are you going on a mission trip right now?

There is a portion of the population that believe God dictates their steps and watches over them. 

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1 hour ago, The Z Machine said:

Why the #### are you going on a mission trip right now?

I know. Same thing I said to my kids, as my daughter is friends with one of his daughters. It's possible he was vaccinated, but I highly doubt it. Either way, there's no way I'd be traveling anywhere out of the country without being vaccinated. Just doesn't make good sense. 

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16 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

Should the Delta Variant cause me to take extra precautions or not travel etc due to having unvaccinated kids?

Thread Scott Gotlieb retweeted:

https://twitter.com/joannekenen/status/1404272835032403970?s=21

I'm in one of the best areas in the world for vaccination in the northeast, and I'm fully vaccinated, but my kid isn't.  For the most part, we're using masks and staying outdoors until the vaccine is available for under 12.  That doesn't mean we will avoid all fun - things like amusement parks can still work but we might avoid peak times for some of the rides.  We're still kind of figuring this out.  

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13 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

I'm in one of the best areas in the world for vaccination in the northeast, and I'm fully vaccinated, but my kid isn't.  For the most part, we're using masks and staying outdoors until the vaccine is available for under 12.  That doesn't mean we will avoid all fun - things like amusement parks can still work but we might avoid peak times for some of the rides.  We're still kind of figuring this out.  

What about just you or the wife?  Traveling for work (plane or train)?  Going out at all?  Gym?

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Interesting vaccine news from a much smaller player in the space:

Novavax COVID-19 Vaccine Demonstrates 90% Overall Efficacy and 100% Protection Against Moderate and Severe Disease in PREVENT-19 Phase 3 Trial

And here is an ELI5 option for you that goes into a little more detail in layman's terms from Your Local Epidemiologist.
 

Quote

Novavax is using a different vaccine formula than Moderna, Pfizer, AstraZeneca, and J&J. The Novavax vaccine contains a cornavirus protein that prompts the immune system. Scientists combined this protein with an immune-boosting compound derived from the soapbark tree. They tried doing it without this adjuvant but the vaccine didn’t work as well. Anyways, this type of vaccine has a much longer track record than the newer approaches.

The exciting (and innovative) aspect of this vaccine is that Novavax found a way to make this vaccine in moth cells (rather than mammal cells). The moth cells basically become little factories that pump out coronavirus proteins. This allows Novavax to manufacture the vaccine much quicker than others, which is obviously a big plus in the time sensitive pandemic

 

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1 hour ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

Should the Delta Variant cause me to take extra precautions or not travel etc due to having unvaccinated kids?

Thread Scott Gotlieb retweeted:

https://twitter.com/joannekenen/status/1404272835032403970?s=21

Good info in that thread.. here it is in a one-stream format: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1404151502864883713.html

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15 minutes ago, Senor Schmutzig said:

Interesting vaccine news from a much smaller player in the space:

Novavax COVID-19 Vaccine Demonstrates 90% Overall Efficacy and 100% Protection Against Moderate and Severe Disease in PREVENT-19 Phase 3 Trial

And here is an ELI5 option for you that goes into a little more detail in layman's terms from Your Local Epidemiologist.
 

 

Was reading that this morning! That is awesome. I bought a little bit of their stock via Robinhood last year when I read about the method they were using. I didn't buy enough. It has almost doubled. :coffee:  

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53 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

What about just you or the wife?  Traveling for work (plane or train)?  Going out at all?  Gym?

I would probably travel for work but thankfully don't have to.  I'm not yet comfortable bringing my kid on a plane. I haven't gone back to the gym or gone to a sit down restaurant but wouldn't really have an issue with it by myself.  I'm not taking my kid to sit down restaurants but we do get takeout and he can come inside briefly with a mask.  If I go inside a grocery store or other busy place I still wear my mask so I don't bring anything home, and stay mostly socially distanced. I'll take him to the outdoor shopping mall, but with a mask because it's busy.  

If the numbers continue to improve, I'll reevaluate. Vermont is at 80 percent vaccinated and mass over 55 percent, and new cases and hospitalizations are all down.  But so many people are going out without masks and that includes people I know who are not vaccinated and refuse to get it.  I don't want to prevent my kid from doing anything all summer but I can expand things a lot without having to take risks so I'm not in a huge hurry. 

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1 hour ago, bostonfred said:

I would probably travel for work but thankfully don't have to.  I'm not yet comfortable bringing my kid on a plane. I haven't gone back to the gym or gone to a sit down restaurant but wouldn't really have an issue with it by myself.  I'm not taking my kid to sit down restaurants but we do get takeout and he can come inside briefly with a mask.  If I go inside a grocery store or other busy place I still wear my mask so I don't bring anything home, and stay mostly socially distanced. I'll take him to the outdoor shopping mall, but with a mask because it's busy.  

If the numbers continue to improve, I'll reevaluate. Vermont is at 80 percent vaccinated and mass over 55 percent, and new cases and hospitalizations are all down.  But so many people are going out without masks and that includes people I know who are not vaccinated and refuse to get it.  I don't want to prevent my kid from doing anything all summer but I can expand things a lot without having to take risks so I'm not in a huge hurry. 

The PA county that I am in is in single-digits cases per day now with I think 70%ish adult vaccination.  My kids are playing outside mask-less, but not inside with people.  I wear my mask inside if I go anywhere.  I think I will be getting on a plane and train for work soon - and to areas like Florida and Kentucky and Tennessee that may not be the "safest" for COVID . . . .

My wife is debating letting my 6 year old go to a camp that is indoors -- they require masks and do a COVID rapid test daily.  Not sure that I want to even do that though -- but it is like a lego and movie-making camp which sounds pretty cool.

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1 minute ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

UK is delaying their "reopening" from June 21 until July 19, due to the Delta Variant.  Should we be exercising some caution instead of letting our guard down?  

Vaccines still work against this new variant.  At this point, while it sucks, those not getting vaccinated either can't or don't want to.  It sucks most for those that can't because there are a TON in the "don't want to" category that are exposing them to unnecessary risk for no real good reason.  I'm not sure there's anything we can do to change that attitude.

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3 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

UK is delaying their "reopening" from June 21 until July 19, due to the Delta Variant.  Should we be exercising some caution instead of letting our guard down?  

Should we? Probably. Will we? Pfffft. Nothing to see here! It's all over folks. 

Just happy that I, and both my kids, are fully vaccinated and can go back to fairly normal life without worry. 

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4 hours ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

Should we? Probably. Will we? Pfffft. Nothing to see here! It's all over folks. 

Just happy that I, and both my kids, are fully vaccinated and can go back to fairly normal life without worry. 

Pretty much this. July 4th gonna be off the hook

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4 hours ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

UK is delaying their "reopening" from June 21 until July 19, due to the Delta Variant.  Should we be exercising some caution instead of letting our guard down?  

Unvaccinated people should definitely exercise caution.  The rest of us have nothing to worry about.  One of many reasons why vaccines are good.

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5 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Unvaccinated people should definitely exercise caution.  The rest of us have nothing to worry about.  One of many reasons why vaccines are good.

Except parents have to worry about their kids who are under 12.

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5 hours ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

UK is delaying their "reopening" from June 21 until July 19, due to the Delta Variant.  Should we be exercising some caution instead of letting our guard down?  

Heck no! It's summer, baby!!!!

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8 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

Except parents have to worry about their kids who are under 12.

Kids under 12 have never been at any serious risk from covid, thankfully.  Hopefully we'll get vaccines approved for them soon.

Also . . . .

5 hours ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

UK is delaying their "reopening" from June 21 until July 19, due to the Delta Variant.  Should we be exercising some caution instead of letting our guard down?  

If by "we" and "our" you meant "parents of unvaccinated children," you probably should have been more explicit about that.  The rest of us don't need to be worried about the UK variant, because our vaccines appear to work just fine against it.

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5 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Kids under 12 have never been at any serious risk from covid, thankfully.  Hopefully we'll get vaccines approved for them soon.

Also . . . .

If by "we" and "our" you meant "parents of unvaccinated children," you probably should have been more explicit about that.  The rest of us don't need to be worried about the UK variant, because our vaccines appear to work just fine against it.

We means society in general.

The UK is better vaccinated than us and has been a bellwether for things to come here often and they are delaying a much celebrated reopening plan due to the variant.  Now, it does appear that the Delta has taken a strong hold there, but I am reading that Delta could be the dominant strain in the USA in 2-3 weeks . . . . 

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7 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

We means society in general.

The UK is better vaccinated than us and has been a bellwether for things to come here often and they are delaying a much celebrated reopening plan due to the variant.  Now, it does appear that the Delta has taken a strong hold there, but I am reading that Delta could be the dominant strain in the USA in 2-3 weeks . . . . 

It could be the dominate strain here now, no one is going back inside. Right or wrong, most of America is moving on.

This then comes down to personal responsibility. Take care of you and yours. Don't know what else to say other than that. People gonna people :shrug:

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1 minute ago, beer 30 said:

It could be the dominate strain here now, no one is going back inside. Right or wrong, most of America is moving on.

This then comes down to personal responsibility. Take care of you and yours. Don't know what else to say other than that. People gonna people :shrug:

Understood.

I have viewed this thread as a good unfiltered source of information and as a means of seeing what responsible people are doing to keep their families safe, despite what may be going on around us.

The variants to date have been nothing-burgers, but Delta seems a bit different given the carnage in India.  So I just wanted to see what the learned group here was thinking.

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Just now, Leeroy Jenkins said:

Understood.

I have viewed this thread as a good unfiltered source of information and as a means of seeing what responsible people are doing to keep their families safe, despite what may be going on around us.

The variants to date have been nothing-burgers, but Delta seems a bit different given the carnage in India.  So I just wanted to see what the learned group here was thinking.

I hear ya, I think the genie is out of the bottle here and nothing short of a massive resurgence will put us anywhere close to lock down status again. Cuomo just unleashed New York so I think we're moving forward here.

As mentioned upthread, I feel bad for the folks who can't get vax'd and are still going to have to have to live with this thing for a while. Was listening to JC Tretter talk about how the Browns are dealing with players in the locker room. Vax'd have free reign, no masks. Unvax'd still have to wear masks everywhere and have restrictions on where they can be, how long, proximity beepers, all that stuff.

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On the Delta variant, cases are rising in the UK now, but we won't know how severe an outbreak this will be.  Cases could start going down pretty soon. They have very high levels of vaccinations.

It may be the dominant strain in the US, but at the same low levels we are seeing now.  

Nothing about this pandemic has been easy to predict, so I am keeping all possibilities on the table.  

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We are generally safe from all these variations UNTIL one comes out that changes the spike protein in a way that tricks our antibodies.  At that point a new vaccine would be required.  The brilliance in this entire thing is the simplicity of what they chose to target.  The human body doesn't attack it this way naturally.  This is why you can look at the antibodies and see if they were created by the vaccine or naturally.  Naturally we have to "learn" how to fight this thing just like it "learns" how to survive.  

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3 hours ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

We means society in general.

The UK is better vaccinated than us and has been a bellwether for things to come here often and they are delaying a much celebrated reopening plan due to the variant.  Now, it does appear that the Delta has taken a strong hold there, but I am reading that Delta could be the dominant strain in the USA in 2-3 weeks . . . . 

I haven't seen numbers lately, but isn't the UK taking a "first doses first" approach that has a large percent of their population with a single dose, but a much lower percent than the US with two doses?  I've read efficacy of the vaccines against the Delta strain are very high with 2 doses, but not great with just one.  If that's all correct, the US and UK seem like very different situations.

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A Pill to Treat COVID-19? The U.S. Is Betting on It (New York Times/Yahoo 6/18/2021)

Quote

 

The U.S. government spent more than $18 billion last year funding drugmakers to make a COVID vaccine, an effort that led to at least five highly effective shots in record time. Now it is pouring more than $3 billion on a neglected area of research: developing pills to fight the virus early in the course of infection, potentially saving many lives in the years to come.

The new program, announced Thursday by the Department of Health and Human Services, will speed up the clinical trials of a few promising drug candidates. If all goes well, some of those first pills could be ready by the end of the year. The Antiviral Program for Pandemics will also support research on entirely new drugs — not just for the coronavirus, but for viruses that could cause future pandemics.

...

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a key backer of the program, said he looked forward to a time when COVID-19 patients could pick up antiviral pills from a pharmacy as soon as they tested positive for the coronavirus or develop COVID-19 symptoms.

“I wake up in the morning, I don’t feel very well, my sense of smell and taste go away, I get a sore throat,” Fauci said in an interview. “I call up my doctor, and I say, ‘I have COVID, and I need a prescription.’”

Fauci’s support for research on antiviral pills stems from his own experience fighting AIDS three decades ago. In the 1990s, his institute conducted research that led to some of the first antiviral pills for HIV, “protease inhibitors” that block an essential virus protein and can keep the virus at bay for a lifetime.

In the early 2000s, researchers found that an antiviral called sofosbuvir could cure hepatitis C close to 100% of the time. Tamiflu, an over-the-counter pill for influenza, can cut the time it takes to recover from an infection and reduce the chances that a bout of the flu will land someone in the hospital.

At the start of the pandemic, researchers began testing existing antivirals in people hospitalized with severe COVID-19. But many of those trials failed to show any benefit from the antivirals. In hindsight, the choice to work in hospitals was a mistake. Scientists now know that the best time to try to block the coronavirus is in the first few days of the disease, when the virus is replicating rapidly and the immune system has not yet mounted a defense.

Many people crush their infection and recuperate, but in others, the immune system misfires and starts damaging tissues instead of viruses. It is this self-inflicted damage that sends many people with COVID-19 to the hospital as the coronavirus replication is tapering off. So a drug that blocks replication early in an infection might very well fail in a trial on patients who have progressed to later stages of the disease.

 

 

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Interesting read. Above my head for the most part but the title of the paper: Recovery of deleted deep sequencing data sheds more light on the early Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 epidemic pretty much covers it.

Abstract

The origin and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 remains shrouded in mystery. Here I identify a data set containing SARS-CoV-2 sequences from early in the Wuhan epidemic that has been deleted from the NIH's Sequence Read Archive. I recover the deleted files from the Google Cloud, and reconstruct partial sequences of 13 early epidemic viruses. Phylogenetic analysis of these sequences in the context of carefully annotated existing data suggests that the Huanan Seafood Market sequences that are the focus of the joint WHO-China report are not fully representative of the viruses in Wuhan early in the epidemic. Instead, the progenitor of known SARS-CoV-2 sequences likely contained three mutations relative to the market viruses that made it more similar to SARS-CoV-2's bat coronavirus relatives.

https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1407445604029009923?s=21

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.18.449051v1

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5 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

Good info. Nuggets from that twitter thread that caught my attention:

  • Both progenitors suggest #SARSCoV2 was circulating in Wuhan before December outbreak at Huanan Seafood Market, which is corroborated by lots of other evidence, including news articles from China in early 2020 (see intro to my paper linked in first Tweet in this thread). (15/n)
  • First, fact this dataset was deleted should make us skeptical that all other relevant early Wuhan sequences have been shared. We already know many labs in China ordered to destroy early samples
  • Second major implication is that it may be possible to obtain additional information about early spread of #SARSCoV2 in Wuhan even if efforts for more on-the-ground investigations are stymied
  • Sequence Read Archive has rigorous data tracking enabling them to determine when data deleted & stated justification by authors. In fact,@NIHDirector @NCBI have already determined this & generously shared info w me, but will let them share more widely.
  • Third major implication is that scientists need to stay focused on data-driven study of #SARSCoV2 origins / early spread. After spending the last 4 months studying this closely, I am cautiously optimistic that additional relevant data are still likely to come to light.
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Won't post the link to give them views, but..

Headline: Almost 4,000 fully vaccinated people in Massachusetts have tested positive for COVID-19

actual info: there were 3,791 coronavirus cases among the more than 3.7 million fully vaccinated individuals (approx. 1/1000)

also: "We’re learning that many of the breakthrough infections are asymptomatic or they’re very mild and brief in duration," said Boston University infectious diseases specialist Davidson Hamer, according to the Boston Herald. "The viral load is not very high."

But links like that are what's being shared by anti-vax and vax-hesitant to say "WHY DO I NEED TO GET A SHOT THAT DOESN'T WORK!?!111!" :wall: 

Just a simple re-wording of that link text could have a PROFOUND effect. 

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12 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

And a lot less clicks...

I kid you not. I opened a local news link about the Houston hospital suspending it's unvaccinated employees and someone just posted a link to the same damn article I was referring to (actually a different site, but nearly identical headline). :wall: I started to comment, but decided to not feed the trolls. 

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Boy, went out for drinks with a conservative friend for the first time since this all began. The friendship dates back to grade school, and I usually see eye to eye with him on 75% of topics. Talking about covid was rough. Had a sense of his stance since he'd asked about family get-togethers a few times in 2020. Everything was great until this topic came up... thinks the risk is overblown, doesn't believe the death count is actually attributable to covid, etc. Then he became provocative on decisions my family made; e.g. "Did you have someone super susceptible you were trying to protect?" ("if not, then you overreacted" being the implication). At one point I had to say "just stop, let's change the subject." Really an awkward elephant in the room topic for old friendships. I'll need to get better at this.

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1 hour ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

Won't post the link to give them views, but..

Headline: Only 4,000 fully vaccinated people in Massachusetts have tested positive for COVID-19

 

Changing one word makes all the difference. I hate the media

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5 hours ago, BigJim® said:

Boy, went out for drinks with a conservative friend for the first time since this all began. The friendship dates back to grade school, and I usually see eye to eye with him on 75% of topics. Talking about covid was rough. Had a sense of his stance since he'd asked about family get-togethers a few times in 2020. Everything was great until this topic came up... thinks the risk is overblown, doesn't believe the death count is actually attributable to covid, etc. Then he became provocative on decisions my family made; e.g. "Did you have someone super susceptible you were trying to protect?" ("if not, then you overreacted" being the implication). At one point I had to say "just stop, let's change the subject." Really an awkward elephant in the room topic for old friendships. I'll need to get better at this.

Yeah.  It's really not an easy topic for anyone at this point.   Just had dinner with some friends on "the other side" this week.   They were really eager to debate COVID, which made my wife uncomfortable.  I just said "hey, we're glad this is mostly behind us all now and we can get back to living.  It's just so great to see you both."   That was all it took.   I had a few interactions weeks ago (with other people) that didn't go as well, and looking back on it I realized that was because part of my goal was still to convince folks that A) I was right, B) they need to get vaccinated.   And the reality is, it's not worth losing friends at this point.  They can make their own decisions as adults, whether I think those decisions are rational/sensible/defensible or not.  And vice versa.

Good luck navigating these dynamics.

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38 minutes ago, Alex P Keaton said:

I just said "hey, we're glad this is mostly behind us all now and we can get back to living.  It's just so great to see you both."   That was all it took. 

To his credit, that's exactly what he messaged me today saying, apologizing for getting us off track. Great guy, I think we've just got all these bottled up opinions. Your approach seems like a great one.

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1 hour ago, Alex P Keaton said:

Yeah.  It's really not an easy topic for anyone at this point.   Just had dinner with some friends on "the other side" this week.   They were really eager to debate COVID, which made my wife uncomfortable.  I just said "hey, we're glad this is mostly behind us all now and we can get back to living.  It's just so great to see you both."   That was all it took.   I had a few interactions weeks ago (with other people) that didn't go as well, and looking back on it I realized that was because part of my goal was still to convince folks that A) I was right, B) they need to get vaccinated.   And the reality is, it's not worth losing friends at this point.  They can make their own decisions as adults, whether I think those decisions are rational/sensible/defensible or not.  And vice versa.

Good luck navigating these dynamics.

See, I don't mind losing some friends over this, at all.  Those that took it way too far, I just have little respect for anymore.  I feel like true colors have really been shown.  Conversely, there are other relationships I now value more, thankfully. 

It's been like a re-shuffling of the deck for me, in a good way.

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1 minute ago, Harry Frogfish said:

See, I don't mind losing some friends over this, at all.  Those that took it way too far, I just have little respect for anymore.  I feel like true colors have really been shown.  Conversely, there are other relationships I now value more, thankfully. 

It's been like a re-shuffling of the deck for me, in a good way.

Sure.  I can see that.  Gotta pick and choose though.   I don’t have many friends that I’d want to lose over COVID.   To each their own.

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12 hours ago, Alex P Keaton said:

Yeah.  It's really not an easy topic for anyone at this point.   Just had dinner with some friends on "the other side" this week.   They were really eager to debate COVID, which made my wife uncomfortable.  I just said "hey, we're glad this is mostly behind us all now and we can get back to living.  It's just so great to see you both."   That was all it took.   I had a few interactions weeks ago (with other people) that didn't go as well, and looking back on it I realized that was because part of my goal was still to convince folks that A) I was right, B) they need to get vaccinated.   And the reality is, it's not worth losing friends at this point.  They can make their own decisions as adults, whether I think those decisions are rational/sensible/defensible or not.  And vice versa.

Good luck navigating these dynamics.

I kinda went through that for a while when the vaccines first came out and had the same epiphany you did. I can't force the horse to drink the water. My mantra lately has been, "life's too short, eat the cookies". I'm heading down the hill at this point in my life and if you judge me because I got a vaccine then we probably aren't seeing eye-to-eye on too many topics to begin with.

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8 minutes ago, bcat01 said:

Israel is saying that up to 50% of Delta variant infections are in vaccinated people.  https://www.yahoo.com/news/israel-says-delta-variant-infecting-110300111.html

certainly something to keep an eye on, but... from the original BI article:

Quote

 

The figure is likely to be an estimate, as the ministry is still analyzing data about the cases. On Monday, Levy's estimate was lower: he said only a third of the new daily cases were people who had been vaccinated.

It is also not clear whether those would have been fully vaccinated or received only one shot of the vaccine.

 

 

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37 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Growing anecdotes that the single shot protocol isn't gonna work vs Delta.  UK has a delta thing running now.  

Moderna for the win baby!

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2 hours ago, bcat01 said:

Israel is saying that up to 50% of Delta variant infections are in vaccinated people.  https://www.yahoo.com/news/israel-says-delta-variant-infecting-110300111.html

[strike]Path of least resistance, not a surprise at all.[/strike]

EDIT: Ack -- I misread that as "unvaccinated" people. There's more to the story, I'm sure.

Edited by Doug B
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