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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (12 Viewers)

Florida's metrics are worsening including daily new cases per 100k, hospitalizations, and ICU hospitalizations. The increase in ICU hospitalizations looks exponential, approaching the last peak of nearly 4,000 around April 24, but less than half the peak of ~8,000 in January. Deaths seems flat, I know it's a lagging indicator, but I don't expect a big increase like we saw last summer and in January due to the younger age and better treatment. The DeSantis reaction is basically - we expected it, cause we saw it last summer, but we're gonna continue with our lives. I don't wanna make this political, but looking at the numbers from Florida and Califonia objectively, you could make a case for his argument. The wildcard is whether the variants become more lethal and resistant to vaccines. Florida is 24th in vaccination rate at 55% (1 dose) which is not great considering the number of elderly living here. In Miami Dade County, it's 69%, as the local leaders from both parties have stressed the importance of vaccinations. Most older Cubans I know have been vaccinated, many have seen family or friends die from COVID.

 
Nathan R. Jessep said:
Any Arkansas or Missourri peeps in here? Seeing reports that many of their hospitals are at or near capacity and having to divert critical patients elsewhere. 
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I'm in Kansas City on the Kansas side, and my neighbor is a nurse at a local hospital. She is back on the Covid wing and they are starting to fill up.

She is pisssssssssssssssssssssed (at the anti-vaxxer folks). 

 
IvanKaramazov said:
I read this article last week, and it was infuriating. The thing is that it's mid-July -- covid wasn't that bad this time last year.  If this is what delta looks like during the quiet summer season, I don't want any part of what it's going to turn into once fall arrives and everybody moves back indoors. 
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First of all, my family (kids included) are all vaccinated with Moderna/Pfizer and I’m infuriated by the utter stupidity of people refusing to get vaccinated since we had it beat. Second, last July was worse. We had triple the daily cases in the US that we have now and five times the daily deaths. If the vaccines weren’t around we’d be in another #### show so thank goodness for that.

Here’s to hoping that all the stubborn ####nuts that refuse to get a vaccine are realizing that they are jeopardizing our kids ability to go back to school full time again. The same ####### idiots that complained about the lockdowns and kids not in school are the same ####### idiots who can’t see that getting vaccinated is all they had to do to make their dreams come true.

I haven’t lost any friends over this yet mainly because my empathy is completely gone and if they get sick or worse, it’s on them.

 
Your Local Epidemiologist: Current State of Affairs: July 19

My tl;dr nuggets:

  • COVID19 cases are up 140%, with clear exponential growth. It’s the first time since January that cases are increasing in every state. The severity of the wave, though, is unevenly distributed and concentrated in the South.
  • Arkansas leads the pack in Cases by Region (per capita)
  • CDC has updated the transmission statuses and there are now 8 states in RED (the worst): (LA, AR, MO, FL, OK, KS, NV, UT); 8 in Orange; 1 in blue (the best) - good job Vermont;
  • Vermont and Massachusetts are two of the vaccination leaders, yet are now in the top-10 case growth states; hopefully hospitalizations don't increase due to the high vaccination rates; TN, AL and FL are the leaders in 14-day case growth rates
  • Test positivity is now back above 5%, and many areas aren't reporting tests any more, or reporting them less frequently than before. Some areas aren't even doing mass testing any more bc those sites got converted to vaccination sites.
  • "22,622 souls are currently hospitalized in the United States for COVID19, which is a 34% increase. Hospitalizations lag cases by 3-4 weeks, so this metric will continue to increase. Especially among states with low vaccination rates.

    State-level hospitalization rates are strongly correlated with vaccination rates. Among the states that are well on their way (Florida, Arkansas, Nevada), hospitalizations are outpacing the winter numbers."
  • In England, hospitalizations have increased at a similar or slower pace than past waves, but in many US states, they are rising faster than they did last year (see graphs... also :censored:  )
  • Deaths are slowly rising too, but case fatality rate is holding on at around 2%. --it's awful that this is the "silver lining" 
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TripItUp said:
Darwin gonna Darwin
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Honestly—for somebody that is a fairly bright dude—you posting and saying heartless and despicable stuff like this is a quick way to lose the respect of others.   Just because people with co-morbidities and people that are overweight are more susceptible to severe covid or death from covid—it doesn’t mean that the disease doesn’t effect the lives/livelihoods of everybody. You think that your life would be as comfortable and great without citizens that happen to not be in perfect health? You think that the factory workers that make the products that you use and need, the grocery store workers that run and stock the stores that you get your supplies and food from, the restaurant workers that cook and serve the food you eat, the workers that maintain the roads you drive on, the teachers that run the schools that your kids learn from are all in perfect health?     Yeah—let Darwin  “Darwin” them away and see how great your life and lifestyle would be.  Your entire schtick about this is one of the most repulsive and utterly tone deaf things that I have ever seen on the history of these boards.  Just disgusting. 

 
SoBeDad said:
Florida's metrics are worsening including daily new cases per 100k, hospitalizations, and ICU hospitalizations. The increase in ICU hospitalizations looks exponential, approaching the last peak of nearly 4,000 around April 24, but less than half the peak of ~8,000 in January. Deaths seems flat, I know it's a lagging indicator, but I don't expect a big increase like we saw last summer and in January due to the younger age and better treatment. The DeSantis reaction is basically - we expected it, cause we saw it last summer, but we're gonna continue with our lives. I don't wanna make this political, but looking at the numbers from Florida and Califonia objectively, you could make a case for his argument. The wildcard is whether the variants become more lethal and resistant to vaccines. Florida is 24th in vaccination rate at 55% (1 dose) which is not great considering the number of elderly living here. In Miami Dade County, it's 69%, as the local leaders from both parties have stressed the importance of vaccinations. Most older Cubans I know have been vaccinated, many have seen family or friends die from COVID.
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I think that even if deaths don’t climb significantly thanks to better treatments and younger ages, the unknown potentially serious long term effects of Covid are still a big enough deal that people should take it more seriously. 

 
I've been using the UK as a guide for what we should expect in this wave, as they have similar vaccine numbers and are a few weeks ahead of us in the outbreak.  The good news there is that hospitalizations and deaths have remained very low at least in comparison with case numbers from previous waves. Hospitalizations and deaths are so low that they are continuing with their planned re-openings this week, as they've been under various states of lockdown.  

As far as the duration, Scotland was one of the first locations to have a big outbreak and their case numbers began dropping at the 7-8 week time frame, which is consistent with previous outbreaks.  It looked like cases were peaking in other locations of the UK, but now they are rising again.  It's possible this is attributable to their football matches drawing people into congregate settings to watch, but that's unproven.

Their case numbers might be catching some cases that would have been missed previously.  Lots of vaccinated people are having extremely mild cases but they are testing positive.  Their tracing and testing regime is robust.  

 
worrierking said:
I've been using the UK as a guide for what we should expect in this wave, as they have similar vaccine numbers and are a few weeks ahead of us in the outbreak.  The good news there is that hospitalizations and deaths have remained very low at least in comparison with case numbers from previous waves. Hospitalizations and deaths are so low that they are continuing with their planned re-openings this week, as they've been under various states of lockdown.  

As far as the duration, Scotland was one of the first locations to have a big outbreak and their case numbers began dropping at the 7-8 week time frame, which is consistent with previous outbreaks.  It looked like cases were peaking in other locations of the UK, but now they are rising again.  It's possible this is attributable to their football matches drawing people into congregate settings to watch, but that's unproven.

Their case numbers might be catching some cases that would have been missed previously.  Lots of vaccinated people are having extremely mild cases but they are testing positive.  Their tracing and testing regime is robust.  
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The bad news is that this Delta spike is going to taper off just in time for cold and flu season -- which is going to be particularly bad in and of itself.  

 
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My wife, our 16 year old daughter and myself are all vaccinated, but we are a few hours away from getting on a plane to Vegas. Looking at the increase in numbers, I am very concerned. We had a previous trip planned in March of 2020, which we cancelled and ended up losing most of our money on. We thought we were going to be safer planning this one, but...ugggh. 

We trust the science but with all my health conditions, I have to say I am a little scared. 

 
Nathan R. Jessep said:
Hospitalizations lag cases by 3-4 weeks
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Is there a site that tracks hospitalizations and cases like the covid tracking project or carlson page used to? 

This was often said in the past, but was never true. Perhaps things have changed, but i doubt it. 

It was based off of flawed timetables. Calculating time of infection to hospitalization, but completely forgetting that cases dont get discovered so often until symptom onset not at infection. It also never factored in the delays in testing. 

One thing I always saw from WI data was that the number of hospitalizations pending a covid test was around 50% of the number of covid hospitalizations overall. 

In other words if 300 people were in covid ward, 200 would have been tested already. 100 werent tested until they arrived. This is why peaks in hospitalizations and peaks in cases were so much closer together than 3-4 weeks.

 
parasaurolophus said:
Is there a site that tracks hospitalizations and cases like the covid tracking project or carlson page used to? 

This was often said in the past, but was never true. Perhaps things have changed, but i doubt it. 

It was based off of flawed timetables. Calculating time of infection to hospitalization, but completely forgetting that cases dont get discovered so often until symptom onset not at infection. It also never factored in the delays in testing. 

One thing I always saw from WI data was that the number of hospitalizations pending a covid test was around 50% of the number of covid hospitalizations overall. 

In other words if 300 people were in covid ward, 200 would have been tested already. 100 werent tested until they arrived. This is why peaks in hospitalizations and peaks in cases were so much closer together than 3-4 weeks.
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I get your point, but unless 100% of the tests were at the hospital at the time of admittance, there will still be an increase in hospitalizations after the fact. She may just be speaking in general terms from her expertise of data analysis and of course there will always be outliers if you scrutinize the data very much. That said, she did sort of address that with one example in her post that I linked above: "People are just not actively seeking out testing due to pandemic fatigue. For example, in Texas, the majority of people pare only getting tested once they get to the hospital, meaning it’s far too late to curb their spread during their most infectious point." So would skew the numbers a bit, but it's going to vary. And knowing and acknowledging that, she still warns of the lag. Also of note: "22,622 souls are currently hospitalized in the United States for COVID19, which is a 34% increase."

 
American Academy of Pediatrics recommends universal masking in schools for everyone older than 2 (CNN Wire Service, 7/19/2021)

The American Academy of Pediatrics released new Covid-19 guidance for schools on Monday that supports in-person learning and, among other things, recommends universal masking in school of everyone over the age of 2.

“The AAP believes that, at this point in the pandemic, given what we know about low rates of in-school transmission when proper prevention measures are used, together with the availability of effective vaccines for those age 12 years and up, that the benefits of in-person school outweigh the risks in all circumstances,” the guidance says.

One of the main interventions put forward by the AAP includes that all students over the age of 2 and all school staff should wear masks at school unless they have a medical or developmental condition that prohibits this.

Reasons for this recommendation include, but are not limited to: a significant proportion of the student population not yet being eligible for vaccination; masking protecting those who are not vaccinated against Covid-19 and reducing transmission; and potential difficulty in monitoring or enforcing mask policies for those who are not vaccinated.
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beer 30 said:
Patiently waiting for the CDC/WHO/Current Administration to contradict this guidance...

Somebody will and whether it's the right thing to do or not, the message will get muddled in the politics and again, needless people will contract this virus and some will die.
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Exactly what I was about to say. There's almost 100% certainty that this will fuel the politicization of the pandemic. 

 
Why are we getting spikes that mimic the previous spikes in places that have decently high vaccination rates. Is the vaccine not as effective as previously thought?

We have a vacation planned later this week to Austin area, they have 57% fully vaxxed and 64% that have received at least one shot, but according to their local dashboard it looks like they are just starting a spike.

We will stick to mostly outdoor activities, but the food scene is certainly one of the main attractions to the area.

Also, are there any studies on people with the J&J vaccine getting a more effective shot later on? It is probably too soon, but would be good to know about.

 
I lost a late 30's family member to Covid in May 2020.  Horrible, obviously.  A couple of weeks ago her sister took her own life because she was so depressed about losing her.  I was already devastated for their parents but now....man. :(

Posting because I hope it can help someone.  I wish I would have been able to help and avoid another  tragedy.

 
MTskibum said:
Why are we getting spikes that mimic the previous spikes in places that have decently high vaccination rates. Is the vaccine not as effective as previously thought?

We have a vacation planned later this week to Austin area, they have 57% fully vaxxed and 64% that have received at least one shot, but according to their local dashboard it looks like they are just starting a spike.

We will stick to mostly outdoor activities, but the food scene is certainly one of the main attractions to the area.

Also, are there any studies on people with the J&J vaccine getting a more effective shot later on? It is probably too soon, but would be good to know about.
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See the link bcat posted above for the J&J. Pfizer and Moderna are also still highly effective against Delta (and all the other currently known variants). 

As for the spikes... they're happening almost everywhere right now.  It's hard to nail down, bc you don't know what percentage of the population is accounted for in that number of cases (unless they've published that). I keep up with it (roughly) for our state, and I can tell you it's a low low number compared to the state's population.  That includes kids, so it might be a better comparison to use population 16+ or 18+ as the denominator, idk. But just for example, if there was a spike in the fall in a particular location, perhaps that was only 20% of that region's population. That would still leave a large population of vectors that can still be potentially infected. Assume half of those are vaccinated. Rough math, since some of the vaccinated are probably in the 20% that were infected, but that's still ~40% of that population that is susceptible. And perhaps more if some of those early cases were mild or asymptomatic cases whose antibodies very well may now be waning. Also Delta is more infectious (higher viral load), so it's ripe for spreading to anyone who doesn't have sufficient (or any) antibodies. So spikes are about to happen everywhere I fear.

 
Chris B. said:
It's so sideways. There is a group of people that won't get vaccinated, won't wear masks, won't socially distance, yet also want all businesses to be open and the economy to flourish... it's like they feel entitled to live in a fantasy world and it's everyone else's fault that life isn't perfect like they want.
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:goodposting:  

 
Alex P Keaton said:
Two family friends are hospitalized now here in Chicago.  Neither has COVID - both have pneumonia due to a flu strain.
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That sucks, sorry GB. Unfortunately they are probably also fighting for the same hospital resources I assume? Respiratory therapy, etc. 

 
The Commish said:
Wow....my initial thought when this whole thing started was that the only vaccine I'd take was the AstraZeneca one because they were the most open and transparent with their process.  Not sure I could have been more wrong.  
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Would be very interested to see how this picture ultimately differs by vaccine.  Sounds like a really different outcome than what Israel is seeing with Pfizer.

 
beer 30 said:
Patiently waiting for the CDC/WHO/Current Administration to contradict this guidance...

Somebody will and whether it's the right thing to do or not, the message will get muddled in the politics and again, needless people will contract this virus and some will die.
Click to expand...
They should contradict it. Having 3 year old kids wear masks in daycare is stupid. 

Cloth masks on grown adults are better than nothing, but still mostly worthless.

On kids the juice is definitely not worth the squeeze. More focus should be on air cleaners, open windows, and any other ventilation efforts possible. If kids in 1920 can sit in sleeping bags outside to go to school, we can surely figure out something equivalent that is way better. 

 
Just ran our (LA) numbers for my spreadsheet. Our hospitalizations which had been relatively stable since early April have now doubled in the last 10 days. Of course that's statewide, so it's going to vary by region as far as capacity goes. But something I hadn't thought about until I read that post I referenced last night by the hospital administrator... Just because the state/region's hospital census shows that there are "available" beds does not mean (a) that those are COVID-able beds (meaning able to treat COVID patients) nor (b) that they have staff available or able to treat COVID patients, either due to losing staff to pandemic fatigue/burnout who have taken other jobs (and sadly, deaths) or just sheer number volume.  It hadn't occurred to me prior to reading that, but at least for the latter, it's yet another challenge they are now facing that they weren't a year ago. I guess the one silver lining is that they did learn better how to treat critical patients, so hopefully the death numbers will stay relatively flat (they have so far, despite the increases here). 

 
JaxBill said:
UK says 60% of hospitalizations are fully vaccinated
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90% of the adult UK population has had at least one shot. With such a high number of vaccinations, it’s not a surprise that a higher percentage of people who get it are vaccinated since we know a very small percentage are still going to deal with breakthrough infections.

 But if you click the link, they actually already corrected themselves because they got it reversed: 60% of hospitalizations are from people who are not fully vaccinated.

 
Courtjester said:
My wife, our 16 year old daughter and myself are all vaccinated, but we are a few hours away from getting on a plane to Vegas. Looking at the increase in numbers, I am very concerned. We had a previous trip planned in March of 2020, which we cancelled and ended up losing most of our money on. We thought we were going to be safer planning this one, but...ugggh. 

We trust the science but with all my health conditions, I have to say I am a little scared. 
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Probably too late but if you can get a n95 or kn95 mask that along with your vaccination makes your risk extremely low.

im immunocompromised and i fly every week.  Not worried at all but i do mask up everywhere that isn’t outdoors.

btw the biggest risk is the gate area for boarding so either board late or if you have status and can board early do that.  The gate is always a disaster with people all over each other.  Good luck!

 
GroveDiesel said:
90% of the adult UK population has had at least one shot. With such a high number of vaccinations, it’s not a surprise that a higher percentage of people who get it are vaccinated since we know a very small percentage are still going to deal with breakthrough infections.

 But if you click the link, they actually already corrected themselves because they got it reversed: 60% of hospitalizations are from people who are not fully vaccinated.
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OOF. That was a hell of a misstatement. 

Was the UK the one that was trying the one-shot approach to get at least a single shot in more arms? I can't recall at this point which country it was

 
GroveDiesel said:
90% of the adult UK population has had at least one shot. With such a high number of vaccinations, it’s not a surprise that a higher percentage of people who get it are vaccinated since we know a very small percentage are still going to deal with breakthrough infections.

 But if you click the link, they actually already corrected themselves because they got it reversed: 60% of hospitalizations are from people who are not fully vaccinated.
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Had to be.  Those numbers didn't make any sense.  It defies logic that a higher percentage of those hospitalized would be vaccinated unless you think the vaccine is increasing your chances of getting Covid.  The only other explanation that would make sense is that the vaccine has no protection whatsoever and 60% is the number of fully vaccinated so it's just matching the patient population OR those that are fully vaccinated have a completely different behavior set now (i.e. they can be in public without a mask vs. those that can't) and that behavior difference is increasing Covid spread.

 
gianmarco said:
Had to be.  Those numbers didn't make any sense.  It defies logic that a higher percentage of those hospitalized would be vaccinated unless you think the vaccine is increasing your chances of getting Covid.  The only other explanation that would make sense is that the vaccine has no protection whatsoever and 60% is the number of fully vaccinated so it's just matching the patient population OR those that are fully vaccinated have a completely different behavior set now (i.e. they can be in public without a mask vs. those that can't) and that behavior difference is increasing Covid spread.
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Exactly. I read that link (from Yahoo) that shady posted like 4 times trying to make sense of those numbers. :lol:   That Yahoo piece was just quoting the Sir Patrick guy from the other link/Twitter, so I'd expect Yahoo to correct theirs too hopefully. 

 
jobarules said:
This ain't good

https://news.yahoo.com/how-many-covid-hospitalisation-double-vaccinated-171607939.html
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That seems to be different from this:  https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html

I know that article is the UK vs the US in mine.  But the cdc one indicates like .00003 chance of hospitalization when vaccinated if im reading this correctly.

Hospitalized or fatal COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases reported to CDC as of July 12, 2021

As of July 12, 2021, more than 159 million people in the United States had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19.

During the same time, CDC received reports from 48 U.S. states and territories of 5,492 patients with COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infection who were hospitalized or died.
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That is a very tiny amount of vaccinated people who have been hospitalized.

 
GroveDiesel said:
90% of the adult UK population has had at least one shot. With such a high number of vaccinations, it’s not a surprise that a higher percentage of people who get it are vaccinated since we know a very small percentage are still going to deal with breakthrough infections.

 But if you click the link, they actually already corrected themselves because they got it reversed: 60% of hospitalizations are from people who are not fully vaccinated.
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Wow thats some ####### mistake

 
jobarules said:
There was a video and he actually SAID the mistake. It wasnt Yahoo's mistake.
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@uksciencechief: Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

 
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