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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (8 Viewers)

https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/oogbz7/uk_nearing_its_highest_ever_covid19_infection_peak/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
 

Good Thread over at r/medicine regarding soaring cases in the UK. They're about to hit their all time high in cases, but deaths are 10% of what they were at the last peak.

Part of that is improved tribal knowledge on treatment. Most is vaccines doing some very heavy lifting right now. 

One doc commenting they can clearly tell if someone was vaxxed or not by the damage revealed by a simple chest X-ray.

 
People calling for mask mandates to be put back in place are going to HURT the vaccine #s. Someone who is on the fence is going to say "if I have to wear a mask then whats the point of the vaccine?"

Instead the message should be "If you are vaccinated you are protected from serious covid. If you are unvaccinated you should wear a mask. If you dont wear a mask then you're risking your own health."

 
jobarules said:
People calling for mask mandates to be put back in place are going to HURT the vaccine #s. Someone who is on the fence is going to say "if I have to wear a mask then whats the point of the vaccine?"

Instead the message should be "If you are vaccinated you are protected from serious covid. If you are unvaccinated you should wear a mask. If you dont wear a mask then you're risking your own health."
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That is the current message.  And even Trump's Surgeon General is saying that it was too early and poor communication by the CDC.

 
Doug B said:
This message isn't working, either.
Click to expand...


Leeroy Jenkins said:
That is the current message.  And even Trump's Surgeon General is saying that it was too early and poor communication by the CDC.
Click to expand...
Yeah but going back to masks is going to be a HUGE setback. Instead they need to be more blunt "Hey look, if you're unvaccinated and dont want to wear a mask, that's on you. May the odds be forever in your favor". The only way people on the fence are going to get vaccinated is when non-vaccinated people close to them start getting very sick or dying and vaccinated people keep living their lives.

 
jobarules said:
Yeah but going back to masks is going to be a HUGE setback. Instead they need to be more blunt "Hey look, if you're unvaccinated and dont want to wear a mask, that's on you. May the odds be forever in your favor". The only way people on the fence are going to get vaccinated is when non-vaccinated people close to them start getting very sick or dying and vaccinated people keep living their lives.
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I tend to agree that the genie is out of the bottle.  But there is a line (that I hope we don't get to) that indoor masking will be put back in place because of variants and community spreading.  There are probably tons of unreported breakthrough cases that are being dismissed by people as just colds.  Which is great for vaccine effectiveness, but if there is a mild breakthrough case, and you are able to infect unvaxxed people, while there is still a high number of unvaxxed people, then that creates more hospitalizations, unnecessary death, and vectors for mutation.  Masks shouldn't have been taken off prior to 50% vaccination and under 10,000 cases per day.  Current CDC really messed up.

 
[icon] said:
https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/oogbz7/uk_nearing_its_highest_ever_covid19_infection_peak/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
 

Good Thread over at r/medicine regarding soaring cases in the UK. They're about to hit their all time high in cases, but deaths are 10% of what they were at the last peak.

Part of that is improved tribal knowledge on treatment. Most is vaccines doing some very heavy lifting right now. 

One doc commenting they can clearly tell if someone was vaxxed or not by the damage revealed by a simple chest X-ray.
Click to expand...
It is pretty remarkable. I was looking a the charts on Worldometer the other day and if you overlay the cases and death charts in almost any country, the death spikes all correlate with the case surges offset by a few weeks. The fact that the UK's deaths are disproportionately flat during this surge compared to their past surges is a silver lining. Seems like they are well past the "wait 2 weeks" for the death spike as their surge started almost 2 months ago. Recent surges in undervaxxed countries like India show the recent surges had a corresponding death spikes, so it does seem like a reasonable theory that vaccines at least may break a link between cases and deaths.

 
ericttspikes said:
It is pretty remarkable. I was looking a the charts on Worldometer the other day and if you overlay the cases and death charts in almost any country, the death spikes all correlate with the case surges offset by a few weeks. The fact that the UK's deaths are disproportionately flat during this surge compared to their past surges is a silver lining. Seems like they are well past the "wait 2 weeks" for the death spike as their surge started almost 2 months ago. Recent surges in undervaxxed countries like India show the recent surges had a corresponding death spikes, so it does seem like a reasonable theory that vaccines at least may break a link between cases and deaths.
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Who'd have thought the vaccines would work like that.....

 
jobarules said:
People calling for mask mandates to be put back in place are going to HURT the vaccine #s. Someone who is on the fence is going to say "if I have to wear a mask then whats the point of the vaccine?"

Instead the message should be "If you are vaccinated you are protected from serious covid. If you are unvaccinated you should wear a mask. If you dont wear a mask then you're risking your own health."
Click to expand...
My response would be that the virus mutates and one of the drivers behind these mutations is unvaccinated people allowing it to roam free and mutate. Aside from that though, these variants only ever get worse. They have to to survive so wearing a mask while being vaccinated isn't an either or or argument IMO. Do both and reduce your chances of getting anything to as close to zero as you can.

I mean I guess if you don't mind getting sick do your thing but I don't have the time or desire to. My family, my work are all more important to me than getting sick because I'm stubborn but that's me.

jobarules said:
Yeah but going back to masks is going to be a HUGE setback. Instead they need to be more blunt "Hey look, if you're unvaccinated and dont want to wear a mask, that's on you. May the odds be forever in your favor". The only way people on the fence are going to get vaccinated is when non-vaccinated people close to them start getting very sick or dying and vaccinated people keep living their lives.
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We agree on this. As more of their unvax'd crowd of friends get COVID and experience bad symptoms or hospitalization or worse my hope would be that they see the benefits of getting the shot. There is still going to be a portion of the society that won't do it no matter how bad it gets but hopefully we can swing some of the fringe folks.

 
jobarules said:
The only way people on the fence are going to get vaccinated is when non-vaccinated people close to them start getting very sick or dying and vaccinated people keep living their lives.
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The whole thing is in a weird no-man's-land right now ... overall society is not quite vaccinated to the point where vaccinated people can 'just go on living their lives', and at the same time not enough of the inveterate unvaccinated are moved to change their status.

 
jobarules said:
Yeah but going back to masks is going to be a HUGE setback. Instead they need to be more blunt "Hey look, if you're unvaccinated and dont want to wear a mask, that's on you. May the odds be forever in your favor". The only way people on the fence are going to get vaccinated is when non-vaccinated people close to them start getting very sick or dying and vaccinated people keep living their lives.
Click to expand...
If the FDA would approve the vaccines the mask issue would largely go away. Schools, businesses, etc. would be able to require vaccination which would really help. At that point, mask usage would be entirely up the people who want to wear them. No dictating necessary.

Right now in most places there is no real consequence, other than a chance of getting sick, that is compelling those on the fence to get vaccinated and that doesn't seem to have an effect. But when vaccination is required to attend events, travel, go to work, go to school we'll get over the hump. At that point there really won't be any need for government to dictate anything like masks as private businesses will do a lot of the heavy lifting.

I really don't get the FDA's slow playing of this. It's not like there is really anything more pressing right now, is there? I mean what is in the queue that is more pressing for them? Should of been all hands on deck months ago. The fact they only have an "acting director" over there is a travesty 6 months into Biden's term. Not to mention having the vaccines not be approved at this point just fuels vaccine skepticism further. The FDA can approve an Alzheimer drug with dubious efficacy in a 3,000 person study and they can't figure out if a vaccine that's been pumped into millions of people can be approved yet? So dumb.

 
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ericttspikes said:
If the FDA would approve the vaccines the mask issue would largely go away. Schools, businesses, etc. would be able to require vaccination which would really help.
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I agree overall, and your point about full approval making requirement more tenable for employers is a good one.

Shifting focus a bit: I believe that pretty much all the individual people that say "The vaccines aren't approved so I won't get them yet!" will not suddenly change their minds upon FDA approval. It's been an quick-grab excuse 90+% of the time you hear it, not a considered reason.

Still, if FDA approval can wring out another 10% of the population getting vaccinated and push us near 80% ... it will be a big win.

 
Doug B said:
The whole thing is in a weird no-man's-land right now ... overall society is not quite vaccinated to the point where vaccinated people can 'just go on living their lives', and at the same time not enough of the inveterate unvaccinated are moved to change their status.
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:goodposting:  COVID limbo

 
Doug B said:
I agree overall, and your point about full approval making requirement more tenable for employers is a good one.

Shifting focus a bit: I believe that pretty much all the individual people that say "The vaccines aren't approved so I won't get them yet!" will not suddenly change their minds upon FDA approval. It's been an quick-grab excuse 90+% of the time you hear it, not a considered reason.

Still, if FDA approval can wring out another 10% of the population getting vaccinated and push us near 80% ... it will be a big win.
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Agree 100%. They will just shift largely to the "long-term effects" argument, IMO. 

 
Doug B said:
I agree overall, and your point about full approval making requirement more tenable for employers is a good one.

Shifting focus a bit: I believe that pretty much all the individual people that say "The vaccines aren't approved so I won't get them yet!" will not suddenly change their minds upon FDA approval. It's been an quick-grab excuse 90+% of the time you hear it, not a considered reason.

Still, if FDA approval can wring out another 10% of the population getting vaccinated and push us near 80% ... it will be a big win.
Click to expand...
My wife is one of these people. So now I have to hope that she sticks to her word and approval comes quick and her previous COVID infection is enough to keep her healthy until then. Boggles my mind but Im done fighting with her about it.

 
[icon] said:
Shocker... shady sharing shady science again 😂
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I’m not sure which, if either, study is questionable. But the state of scientific analytical studies and reporting on science is such a mess that it becomes virtually impossible for laymen to know what is true in many cases. If one study is reported to say that J&J is super effective against the Delta variant and another study is reported to say the exact opposite, what tools does the Everyman have to figure out which is true/more likely.

 
GroveDiesel said:
If one study is reported to say that J&J is super effective against the Delta variant and another study is reported to say the exact opposite ...
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One thing that would help: The popular media needs to stop treating "less effective" as equivalent to "not at all effective". A 10-15% decrease in 'efficacy' (however that's being defined) is not especially problematic when the baseline efficacy is north of 90%.

 
There are obviously so many issues with this idea, but with robust contact tracing and ability to compare strains of viruses, I bet opening up people to lawsuits for spreading viruses would potentially deter/encourage favorable behaviors.

If I get sick and incur medical costs (testing/treatment/etc) and/or miss work, and I can use contact tracing and virus comparison to show that it likely came from a specific person, I should be able to sue them for some of the costs incurred if they did not take measures they could reasonably take to prevent transmitting me the virus. If I can show that I followed recommended guidelines but still got a breakthrough case because Joe Smith wasn’t vaccinated and didn’t wear a mask near me indoors, then it seems reasonable to me that he should owe me compensation.

 
Doug B said:
I agree overall, and your point about full approval making requirement more tenable for employers is a good one.

Shifting focus a bit: I believe that pretty much all the individual people that say "The vaccines aren't approved so I won't get them yet!" will not suddenly change their minds upon FDA approval. It's been an quick-grab excuse 90+% of the time you hear it, not a considered reason.

Still, if FDA approval can wring out another 10% of the population getting vaccinated and push us near 80% ... it will be a big win.
Click to expand...
I get that, but I do think the longer the FDA waits the longer this situation drags out. Like you said in your post above, we're in this weird grey area part of the pandemic. You can get the shot or not get it. You can take off your mask if vaccinated, and should wear them if not vaccinated, but you aren't compelled to show proof of vaccination. It's just a muddle.

I'm just a layperson, but have followed the development of mRNA tech for a few years now, well before Covid hit, out of interest in it. I personally felt safe getting the vaccine as soon as it was available. Based on three decades of proven safety of mRNA in countless other studies I believed it would be a slam dunk for quick approval. The fact that it's been over a year since the first trials and a couple of months since application for approval is somewhat troubling to me considering the gravity of the pandemic. So I can imagine it is even more troubling for those who think mRNA was just cooked up last year. There are people who still call mRNA "novel vaccines". 

It's not even the FDA or government doing anything really, other than stamping them "approved". From there the entire machine of private and public business will have standing to require them for their best interest to protect their businesses and institutions. That will be a big shift toward the end of the pandemic IMO. 

 
Can you even imagine the situation we'd be in if the actual shots came in as expected like the flu shot with maybe 60% eff.?  We'd need 100% of people with a variant like Delta to have shots in arms to really put this thing on ice.  

Hearing there is now a much renewed interest in the shots, which is good.  May have a second (third?forurth?) wave yet but not one to follow (ideally)

 
Doug B said:
I agree overall, and your point about full approval making requirement more tenable for employers is a good one.

Shifting focus a bit: I believe that pretty much all the individual people that say "The vaccines aren't approved so I won't get them yet!" will not suddenly change their minds upon FDA approval. It's been an quick-grab excuse 90+% of the time you hear it, not a considered reason.

Still, if FDA approval can wring out another 10% of the population getting vaccinated and push us near 80% ... it will be a big win.
Click to expand...
FDA approval in this context is meaningless. This needs to be better explained to people.  

 
jobarules said:
People calling for mask mandates to be put back in place are going to HURT the vaccine #s. Someone who is on the fence is going to say "if I have to wear a mask then whats the point of the vaccine?"

Instead the message should be "If you are vaccinated you are protected from serious covid. If you are unvaccinated you should wear a mask. If you dont wear a mask then you're risking your own health."
Click to expand...
I know a number of people at work who didn't get the vaccine....but who are still wearing a mask in public.  They legitmately don't trust the science of the vaccine....but believe enough in the health risks of the virus.

Your message doesn't work with the "it's nothing more than a light flu" crowd......and I'd imagine there are way more of them than the aforementined group.  

 
ericttspikes said:
It's not even the FDA or government doing anything really, other than stamping them "approved". From there the entire machine of private and public business will have standing to require them for their best interest to protect their businesses and institutions. 
Click to expand...
Right on.

One good thing is that even now, with the vaccines under emergency-use authorization, the courts have been consistently ruling in favor of employers' right to require COVID vaccination (e.g. Houston Methodist hospital system, Indiana University).

 
Doug B said:
Right on.

One good thing is that even now, with the vaccines under emergency-use authorization, the courts have been consistently ruling in favor of employers' right to require COVID vaccination (e.g. Houston Methodist hospital system, Indiana University).
Click to expand...
That is good to hear.

I just saw the Greek Theater in CA is starting their concert season and is requiring ALL attendees to show proof of vaccination via the Clear app. I get that government can't and probably shouldn't get into the "health passport" thing, but I think it's completely legit for a private business to require it. As a vaccinated consumer, I'd much rather have a choice of going somewhere to spend my money in person knowing that vaccination is required.

No doubt the live entertainment and food service industry have a lot to lose if this thing spirals out of control again forcing government restriction or closure of their businesses. I'm kind of disappointed that the free market hasn't been more proactive to this point, but do think they are the key to ending it, not the government. 

 
GroveDiesel said:
There are obviously so many issues with this idea, but with robust contact tracing and ability to compare strains of viruses, I bet opening up people to lawsuits for spreading viruses would potentially deter/encourage favorable behaviors.

If I get sick and incur medical costs (testing/treatment/etc) and/or miss work, and I can use contact tracing and virus comparison to show that it likely came from a specific person, I should be able to sue them for some of the costs incurred if they did not take measures they could reasonably take to prevent transmitting me the virus. If I can show that I followed recommended guidelines but still got a breakthrough case because Joe Smith wasn’t vaccinated and didn’t wear a mask near me indoors, then it seems reasonable to me that he should owe me compensation.
Click to expand...
yes, obviously so many issues.   i'll mention one.   apparently vaccinated individuals can and do transmit the virus.

 
Family member who has been in biz (big biz) in the shipping industry (LA harbor) for 35 years said watching China ordering/shipping masks back to China a few weeks ago was alarming.  No idea if they bought masks back or what but it wasn't a good sign.

And that comes from a Trumper.  If anything, he downplays the pandemic (although not to the degree he doesn't believe in it or isn't vax'd).

 
cap'n grunge said:
https://www.al.com/news/2021/07/im-sorry-but-its-too-late-alabama-doctor-on-treating-unvaccinated-dying-covid-patients.html
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“I try to be very non-judgmental when I’m getting a new COVID patient that’s unvaccinated, but I really just started asking them, ‘Why haven’t you gotten the vaccine?’ And I’ll just ask it point blank, in the least judgmental way possible,” she said. “And most of them, they’re very honest, they give me answers. ‘I talked to this person, I saw this thing on Facebook, I got this email, I saw this on the news,’ you know, these are all the reasons that I didn’t get vaccinated.

“And the one question that I always ask them is, did you make an appointment with your primary care doctor and ask them for their opinion on whether or not you should receive the vaccine? And so far, nobody has answered yes to that question.”
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Man, that's sad but it's probably a majority of small towns across the country. It's prevalent across the South for sure, I know.  And sadly, even some of the physicians they might ask in those same small towns will echo the things they've seen on TV/FB/etc.

 
There has to be some model suggesting what is worst case situation given the level of vaccines already out, and cases already recovered.  Where is Nate Silver when you need him?

I think I'd guess we never get back to a daily death total in the US of 1000/day Even 500/day seems really unrealistic.

 
here's what i'm wondering about.   there seems to be widespread acceptance of the idea that bacteria has mutated in response to antibiotics to produce more treatment resistant strains.    i know i accepted this idea without really giving it much thought.  (now that i think about it, it seems at least as possible that bacteria doesn't mutate in response, but just mutates, and of course treatment resistant strains become more prevalent over time.)

now, there seems to be widespread acceptance of the idea that the unvaccinated are going to be the major breeding grounds for covid-19 mutations that are more treatment resistant.  however, IF the virus mutates in response to the immune response produced by the vaccines (some say 5 or 10x the immune response compared to natural infection), and the vaccines don't prevent infection, (and apparently they don't fully), might the infected vaccinated be putting more evolutionary pressure on the virus to mutate?

not trying to change any minds, but wondering.

 
song said:
here's what i'm wondering about.   there seems to be widespread acceptance of the idea that bacteria has mutated in response to antibiotics to produce more treatment resistant strains.    i know i accepted this idea without really giving it much thought.  (now that i think about it, it seems at least as possible that bacteria doesn't mutate in response, but just mutates, and of course treatment resistant strains become more prevalent over time.)

now, there seems to be widespread acceptance of the idea that the unvaccinated are going to be the major breeding grounds for covid-19 mutations that are more treatment resistant.  however, IF the virus mutates in response to the immune response produced by the vaccines (some say 5 or 10x the immune response compared to natural infection), and the vaccines don't prevent infection, (and apparently they don't fully), might the infected vaccinated be putting more evolutionary pressure on the virus to mutate?

not trying to change any minds, but wondering.
Click to expand...
https://www.npr.org/2021/02/09/965703047/vaccines-could-drive-the-evolution-of-more-covid-19-mutants

 
song said:
here's what i'm wondering about.   there seems to be widespread acceptance of the idea that bacteria has mutated in response to antibiotics to produce more treatment resistant strains.    i know i accepted this idea without really giving it much thought.  (now that i think about it, it seems at least as possible that bacteria doesn't mutate in response, but just mutates, and of course treatment resistant strains become more prevalent over time.)

now, there seems to be widespread acceptance of the idea that the unvaccinated are going to be the major breeding grounds for covid-19 mutations that are more treatment resistant.  however, IF the virus mutates in response to the immune response produced by the vaccines (some say 5 or 10x the immune response compared to natural infection), and the vaccines don't prevent infection, (and apparently they don't fully), might the infected vaccinated be putting more evolutionary pressure on the virus to mutate?

not trying to change any minds, but wondering.
Click to expand...
I would take that chance. 

 
Doug B said:
The whole thing is in a weird no-man's-land right now ... overall society is not quite vaccinated to the point where vaccinated people can 'just go on living their lives', and at the same time not enough of the inveterate unvaccinated are moved to change their status.
Click to expand...
Which is prime breeding ground for a bad outcome of a variant that overtakes the vaccines. Get vaccinated already. 

 
song said:
yes, obviously so many issues.   i'll mention one.   apparently vaccinated individuals can and do transmit the virus.
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Sure. But it appears that the viral load shed is much much lower for vaccinated folks which means others who are vaccinated or not vaccinated but wearing masks are much less likely to become infected. Or if they are infected, are much more likely to be asymptomatic. And by being vaccinated, it would show that the individual did what they could to prevent transmission which would reduce or eliminate their liability.

 
GroveDiesel said:
Sure. But it appears that the viral load shed is much much lower for vaccinated folks which means others who are vaccinated or not vaccinated but wearing masks are much less likely to become infected. Or if they are infected, are much more likely to be asymptomatic. And by being vaccinated, it would show that the individual did what they could to prevent transmission which would reduce or eliminate their liability.
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ok.  i think you threw an idea out there and i appreciate that.  good luck pinning your illness on a particular Joe Smith and getting compensation.

 
song said:
yes, obviously so many issues.   i'll mention one.   apparently vaccinated individuals can and do transmit the virus.
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(cross-posted from the Political Forum thread)

Stealthycat said:

its easy to see that vaccinated people are just as capable of spreading covid as non-vaccinated. to what extent we don't know but hey ... percentages right ?
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The bolded is not true.

The vaccinated CAN spread it? As in "it is possible"? Yes.

The vaccinated spread it just like the unvaccinated? Pretty much the same rates, percentages, etc.? No.

...

Fundamentally, the vaccine works by amplifying and - just as importantly - specifying a person's immune response. The mRNA vaccines are  immune-system training tools -- your immune system is introduced to the COVID spike protein divorced from the actual virus itself. This allows your immune system to have (a) antibodies 'pre-built' in the event of an actual infection and (b) for your immune system to be able to 'remember' how to build the necessary antibodies on the fly in the future.

Now then. None of this functions like binary yes/no gates. Instead, everything is on sliders, like a recording studio's sound board. Nothing you do as far as precautions or vaccines gets your risk of bad outcomes down to 0%. Conversely, nothing you fail to do gets your risk of bad outcomes up to 100%. Instead, dang near everyone (but not 100% of us) are working the in-betweens. You wear a mask indoors somewhere, that slider moves a good bit in your favor. You stay home a lot more often, same thing. Do more indoor stuff outdoors, also to your advantage. Vaccination is yet another advantageous slider move, and an especially potent one -- but still not getting you to 100%.

However, at a top-of-the-mountain society-wide level ... if a whole bunch of individuals move enough sliders to get themselves 90%-95% safe, then a wonderful thing happens. The math of accumulating probabilities kicks in and society, overall, enjoys near 100% protection. Even with maybe 10-15% anti-vaccine holdouts. Even with a similar percentage consistently doing the wrong things otherwise (no masking ever, frequenting crowded indoor places, etc.). 80-85% of the U.S. consistently doing the right things opens up a whole new post-pandemic word for everyone.

But it requires that many people willingly pulling in the same direction -- and frankly, it will require people to graduate from decision-making based on personal calculus to decision-making based on what's best for society overall. In a pandemic, in which virions do not respect personal space or personal freedoms ... truly, no man is an island.

 
Doug B said:
(cross-posted from the Political Forum thread)

The bolded is not true.

The vaccinated CAN spread it? As in "it is possible"? Yes.

The vaccinated spread it just like the unvaccinated? Pretty much the same rates, percentages, etc.? No.

...

Fundamentally, the vaccine works by amplifying and - just as importantly - specifying a person's immune response. The mRNA vaccines are  immune-system training tools -- your immune system is introduced to the COVID spike protein divorced from the actual virus itself. This allows your immune system to have (a) antibodies 'pre-built' in the event of an actual infection and (b) for your immune system to be able to 'remember' how to build the necessary antibodies on the fly in the future.

Now then. None of this functions like binary yes/no gates. Instead, everything is on sliders, like a recording studio's sound board. Nothing you do as far as precautions or vaccines gets your risk of bad outcomes down to 0%. Conversely, nothing you fail to do gets your risk of bad outcomes up to 100%. Instead, dang near everyone (but not 100% of us) are working the in-betweens. You wear a mask indoors somewhere, that slider moves a good bit in your favor. You stay home a lot more often, same thing. Do more indoor stuff outdoors, also to your advantage. Vaccination is yet another advantageous slider move, and an especially potent one -- but still not getting you to 100%.

However, at a top-of-the-mountain society-wide level ... if a whole bunch of individuals move enough sliders to get themselves 90%-95% safe, then a wonderful thing happens. The math of accumulating probabilities kicks in and society, overall, enjoys near 100% protection. Even with maybe 10-15% anti-vaccine holdouts. Even with a similar percentage consistently doing the wrong things otherwise (no masking ever, frequenting crowded indoor places, etc.). 80-85% of the U.S. consistently doing the right things opens up a whole new post-pandemic word for everyone.

But it requires that many people willingly pulling in the same direction -- and frankly, it will require people to graduate from decision-making based on personal calculus to decision-making based on what's best for society overall. In a pandemic, in which virions do not respect personal space or personal freedoms ... truly, no man is an island.
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Hell of a post. :thumbup:   I'd add to the bolded: "...or religious beliefs or political views or conspiracy theories or social media influencer opinions" just to cover all the bases. 

 
Doug B said:
 Even with a similar percentage consistently doing the wrong things otherwise (no masking ever, frequenting crowded indoor places, etc.). 80-85% of the U.S. consistently doing the right things opens up a whole new post-pandemic word for everyone.
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Stop forcing your evil agenda on me, dude. #merica #freedum 

 
cap'n grunge said:
The Washington Post: Opinion | CDC guidance on masking needs to change — now.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/07/21/cdc-masking-covid-delta-variant-opinion/
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Seems exactly what the CDC would do. The problem is the horse is out of the barn. A move like that would be seen as punishing vaccinated at the expense of protecting people who refuse to get the vaccine. I'm perfectly open to the idea that the CDC is full of clueless knuckleheads that don't know science from Shinola, but what "science" has changed in two months? Either the vaccines are working or they aren't. If they aren't working against Delta, Pfizer said they were prepared to create a booster, yet 2 weeks ago the CDC said that isn't needed.

 
culdeus said:
There has to be some model suggesting what is worst case situation given the level of vaccines already out, and cases already recovered.  Where is Nate Silver when you need him?

I think I'd guess we never get back to a daily death total in the US of 1000/day Even 500/day seems really unrealistic.
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Worldometers is showing 333 for today with 21 states unreported as of now

 
culdeus said:
There has to be some model suggesting what is worst case situation given the level of vaccines already out, and cases already recovered.  Where is Nate Silver when you need him?

I think I'd guess we never get back to a daily death total in the US of 1000/day Even 500/day seems really unrealistic.
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500 a day seems like a certainty. We're in the mid 300's today with 22 state not reporting yet and this wave is just getting cranked up.

 
Doug B said:
(cross-posted from the Political Forum thread)

The bolded is not true.

The vaccinated CAN spread it? As in "it is possible"? Yes.

The vaccinated spread it just like the unvaccinated? Pretty much the same rates, percentages, etc.? No.

...

Fundamentally, the vaccine works by amplifying and - just as importantly - specifying a person's immune response. The mRNA vaccines are  immune-system training tools -- your immune system is introduced to the COVID spike protein divorced from the actual virus itself. This allows your immune system to have (a) antibodies 'pre-built' in the event of an actual infection and (b) for your immune system to be able to 'remember' how to build the necessary antibodies on the fly in the future.

Now then. None of this functions like binary yes/no gates. Instead, everything is on sliders, like a recording studio's sound board. Nothing you do as far as precautions or vaccines gets your risk of bad outcomes down to 0%. Conversely, nothing you fail to do gets your risk of bad outcomes up to 100%. Instead, dang near everyone (but not 100% of us) are working the in-betweens. You wear a mask indoors somewhere, that slider moves a good bit in your favor. You stay home a lot more often, same thing. Do more indoor stuff outdoors, also to your advantage. Vaccination is yet another advantageous slider move, and an especially potent one -- but still not getting you to 100%.

However, at a top-of-the-mountain society-wide level ... if a whole bunch of individuals move enough sliders to get themselves 90%-95% safe, then a wonderful thing happens. The math of accumulating probabilities kicks in and society, overall, enjoys near 100% protection. Even with maybe 10-15% anti-vaccine holdouts. Even with a similar percentage consistently doing the wrong things otherwise (no masking ever, frequenting crowded indoor places, etc.). 80-85% of the U.S. consistently doing the right things opens up a whole new post-pandemic word for everyone.

But it requires that many people willingly pulling in the same direction -- and frankly, it will require people to graduate from decision-making based on personal calculus to decision-making based on what's best for society overall. In a pandemic, in which virions do not respect personal space or personal freedoms ... truly, no man is an island.
Click to expand...
Doug B.  weird post.

-if you read the post i responded to for context, unless i overestimate you, i think you might feel a little sheepish.

-i don't know why you imported a post from the PSF to lump in with mine, that made a statement i did not make, though i think i can guess.

-i am glad we agree on the meaning of the word can, and that you confirm my statement was true.

-i said can and do but you ignored the do part. perhaps you can clarify the meaning of the word for me if i'm incorrect.

-then you go off on a long, condescending, preachy rant of pretty obvious stuff that i think probably at least 90% of this thread's readers, including myself agree with, before ending with, "...truly, no man is an island."   thanks man, never heard that one before and couldn't have had that insight without you.

-you generally seem like one of the good (if arrogant) (been accused of that myself) guys, but you sure were itching for a fight.

 
Sooooo....I've been fully vaccinated since mid-March. I went over to a friend's house Sunday. Stayed roughly an hour. We were drinking beers and talking, anywhere from 4 to 10 feet away. 

Friend texts me that he started feeling minor symptoms yesterday and got tested today. Positive. He was not vaccinated. 

Anyway,  I'm telling you this because it is damn near impossible to find a rapid test in North Florida.I finally got one for Friday afternoon.

CDC says I don't need a test unless I feel symptoms (which I don't). Still going to lay low and avoid interactions until I know for sure. (WFH so that's not an issue but skipping Thursday Happy Hour just in case)

 
JaxBill said:
Sooooo....I've been fully vaccinated since mid-March. I went over to a friend's house Sunday. Stayed roughly an hour. We were drinking beers and talking, anywhere from 4 to 10 feet away. 

Friend texts me that he started feeling minor symptoms yesterday and got tested today. Positive. He was not vaccinated. 
Click to expand...
Played golf with the local bartender yesterday.  He was slinging drinks Saturday night and we decided to play some golf.

Midway through the round I come to find he's not vaccinated.  I am but still.  What really got to me is that he's serving the public daily.  Known him for years, really nice "kid" (@ 30), I can't figure out where he gets it from and didn't go there.  I just said I strongly encourage you to do it, this is no joke, and I'll leave it at that.

Man was I disappointed and a little upset.

 
song said:
If you read the post i responded to for context, unless I overestimate you, i think you might feel a little sheepish.
Click to expand...
I apologize for taking your post out of context. I unfairly lumped you in with a general grouping with which you do not identify.

I stand by the content of that post for this thread's general audience.

 
Gotta think this is happening a lot

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article252927628.html

"

An Alabama physician has a stark message for those still resisting COVID-19 vaccinations.

Dr. Brytney Cobia, a physician at Grandview Medical Center in Birmingham, wrote Sunday on Facebook that she has recently admitted numerous “young healthy people” who are severely ill from COVID-19.

“One of the last things they do before they’re intubated is beg me for the vaccine,” Cobia wrote. “I hold their hand and tell them that I’m sorry, but it’s too late.”"

 
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