You're right, kind of. I could've stated that better but see this below... so per the underlined near the end, statistically speaking, it's not proportionately worse yet risk-wise, but younger and unvaccinated will take the brunt of Delta, because of how much more infectious it is, coupled with the fact that the other cohort in the equation (vaccinated) are relatively well-protected. Children and un-vaxed are the weakest link right now, so it stands to reason that they are at more risk right now. This is not a trend you want to be on the back end of, IMO. Just my
Anecdotally, I don't recall hearing or reading of any children hospitalized last year with Covid (I'm sure there may have been an outlier or two). Fast forward to now, I have heard of 3 children in my area who are hospitalized currently, with one needing ventilation. And have seen several anecdotal reports of more hospitalized children outside of my immediate region. Again they are a small percentage of hospitalizations, but more than I recall hearing at any point last year, and sadly I'd expect that to increase in the coming weeks, given the explosion of cases. Thank goodness the deaths are still relatively flat across the board. We'll take that win at this point.
https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/lots-of-questions-from-parents-heres
“How is Delta affecting kids?”
Delta is 200% more transmissible, so more kids will get it (just like more unvaccinated adults will get it). Delta also has a 1000% higher viral load, which means kids will test positive more quickly following exposure. This also means people are shedding a ton more virus, so if your kid comes in contact with a positive COVID19 case, the probability of getting infected increases. If your kid becomes positive, they have more opportunity to infect others too.
The primary mode of transmission is still direct contact and inhaled particles. Higher transmissibility does not mean Delta is transferred in more aerosol form than before.
We do not know if Delta is more severe for kids (or adults) than previous variants. A higher viral load does not necessarily mean increased severity. A recent Lancet study found the hospitalization rate of adults was 85% higher than other variants, but other studies show severity is no different. The consensus among scientists: Jury is still out.
“How many pediatric cases are there and is the rate increasing?”
Last week, 23,551 pediatric COVID-19 cases were reported and kids represented 15.9% of all cases in the United States. This percentage will continue to increase as more and more adolescents and adults get vaccinated.
In 23 states, 2.3% of COVID19 hospitalizations are children (children hospitalized / everyone hospitalized) and the hospitalization rate among kids (hospitalized / infected) remains to be 0.9%.
In the past 14 days, there’s been a 94.6% increase in pediatric cases. Raw pediatric cases (first graph) continues to follow national trends,
which means they do not seem disproportionally impacted by Delta compared to adults. But, both pediatric and adult cases continue to rise, which is concerning in and of itself.
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