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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread


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6 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Our (the collective our) positions are so significantly different in this country.  This is a pretty good illustration.  I live in the most poorly vaccinated county in central Florida.  Masks have already been deemed "optional" and school is going to be fully opened this fall.

Polk? Hardee? Highlands?

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9 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Volusia...are we not number one anymore??  :kicksrock: 

Ah. That was my next guess. Volusia is at 46%. Seminole is just ahead of you at 47%. Polk is 42%, Hardee is 25%, and Highlands is 39%.

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Staff at nursing homes and ALFs should be vaccinated, right?

>>Seventy percent of nursing home residents in the state had been vaccinated as of July 4, according to federal Centers for Medicare & Medicaid data. But Florida has one of the lowest vaccination rates among nursing home staffers in the country, lagging every state but Louisiana, according to that data.

Fewer than half – 42 percent – of nursing home workers had been vaccinated as of July 4, according to an AARP analysis released on Monday, compared to 56 percent nationally.<<

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2021/07/22/florida-nursing-home-outbreaks-could-happen-in-secret-as-covid-cases-spike/

https://www.aarp.org/ppi/issues/caregiving/info-2020/nursing-home-covid-dashboard.html?cmp=RDRCT-350d888f-20201013

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2 minutes ago, Osaurus said:

Ah. That was my next guess. Volusia is at 46%. Seminole just ahead of you at 47%. Polk is 42%, Hardee is 25%, and Highlands is 39%.

Hardee and Highlands don't count!!!!  That's not central Florida <_< Now...target is set on YOU Polk...we're coming for ya!

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3 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Hardee and Highlands don't count!!!!  That's not central Florida <_< Now...target is set on YOU Polk...we're coming for ya!

Lol. I hear ya. Spent my summers as a kid in Ormond Beach and come to the Daytona area at least 4 times a year now. I will be there again in mid-September. Occasionally I go to DeLand, but I try not to. 

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I imagine some/most have seen that Eric Clapton is refusing to perform at any venue that requires spectators to be vaccinated. The first response to an NPR tweet about the story had me :lmao:

 

 

@Wildfyrewarning

Replying to

@NPR

You’d think Eric Clapton would have a greater appreciation for preventative safety measures.

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8 minutes ago, Osaurus said:

Lol. I hear ya. Spent my summers as a kid in Ormond Beach and come to the Daytona area at least 4 times a year now. I will be there again in mid-September. Occasionally I go to DeLand, but I try not to. 

My wife is a professor at Stetson.  I like Deland, but it's an odd mix of people for sure and this virus is the furthest thing from peoples' minds around here despite all the issues.  Just doesn't matter.  You swing by this Sept, let me know.  I can give you a front row seat to the best Trump parade you've ever seen here in Debary. :hifive: 

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as of yet not peer-reviewed (mainly bc Delta is just so new) and small sample sizes but eye-opening info: 

Summer superspreader events among kids

tl;dr

Quote

 

In late June 2021, 450 staff and school-aged kids (6th through 12th graders) attended a church camp in Galveston Texas. On June 27, the first case was reported to the health department. Of the 450 attendees, 156 tested positive (35% attack rate); 20 were breakthrough cases.

As expected, the superspreader event bled to the community, with at least 90 community infections due to the original outbreak.

No one was hospitalized :thumbup: 

Delta was responsible for the outbreak

 

 

Quote

From June 13-17, 2021, teens and adult staff members attended a summer camp in Schuyler County, Illinois. Vaccination status was not asked, masks were not required, and only a handful of attendees were vaccinated (even though everyone was eligible)

85 tested positive for COVID19 (we don’t know the denominator or how many were exposed, so we can’t calculate attack rate)

One young, unvaccinated attendee was hospitalized :thumbdown: 

This, too, bled into the community. 2 of these index cases left for a conference, which resulted in 11 additional cases

 

Quote

We do have one published study describing a Delta superspreader event among kids. From April 15-May 3, an outbreak occurred at an Oklahoma gymnasium.

194 people were exposed and 47 (24% attack rate) cases were identified: 23 gymnasts and 3 staff members

The median age of a case was 14 years (range: 5–58 years) :unsure: 

2 adults were hospitalized (both unvaccinated). One required the ICU

The 47 cases had 80 household contacts. Among the 80 contacts, 42 were infected (53% attack rate)

Among all cases, 85% were unvaccinated (majority were eligible) :wall: , 6% partially vaccinated, and 9% fully vaccinated

 

Quote

Bottom Line

Using the case studies, we can start extrapolating important patterns:

  • In the four aforementioned case studies, one adolescent ended up at the hospital. Kids continue to be relatively resilient from severe disease. However, hospitalization is a pretty low bar to set. We know this isn’t the only outcome.
  • School-aged children continue to efficiently transmit COVID19 to household members and the surrounding community. And this transmission directly results in hospitalizations.
  • Delta is more transmissible than previous variants, leading to a higher attack rate. For example, as pointed out by CDC, the household attack rate in the gymnastic outbreak (53%) was higher than secondary attack rates associated with previous variants (17%).
  • Another common theme: Effective public health mitigation measures (masks, distancing, vaccinating, etc.) were consistently ignored. :hot: 

That last line... you know, like most schools are getting ready to do. Open up without most/any of the previous mitigation measures. This is about to be a complete #### show. 

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8 minutes ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

That last line... you know, like most schools are getting ready to do. Open up without most/any of the previous mitigation measures. This is about to be a complete #### show. 

Our system is requiring masks (IIRC) and offering virtual again for people who want it.  Hoping we have vax dates for the 5-12s in September now, but start of the school year could be tricky.

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9 hours ago, Alex P Keaton said:

That all makes sense.  It's why the logic of "kids are asymptomatic and not really getting sick, so they are completely ok to be at school in person without masks" never made any sense to me.   But hey, that's just me.   

If everyone in the home is vaccinated who cares?

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38 minutes ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

as of yet not peer-reviewed (mainly bc Delta is just so new) and small sample sizes but eye-opening info: 

Summer superspreader events among kids

tl;dr

 

 

 

That last line... you know, like most schools are getting ready to do. Open up without most/any of the previous mitigation measures. This is about to be a complete #### show. 

Thanks for the info. Seems like from all those stories only one child hospitalized so that's great news 

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2 hours ago, Jayrod said:

No, delta is seeing a higher infection rate and higher viral load, so therefore it is more dangerous to unvaccinated children than the initial strain.

Also, I'll ask what you are afraid of?  The article states that 0 9% of kids that get infected with COVID are hospitalized.  That's a solid, known fact.  You are risking that because of what, unknown side effects?

Literally the risk of vaccine side effect issues <<<<<<<<< the risk of COVID issues.  Why people keep arguing against this simple math inequality is baffling and wreaks of emotionalism and susceptibility to fear mongering.

I don't know where that article got 0.9% from. Seems too high to me. Here is a CDC source that shows MUCH lower hospitalization rates for 12-17 year olds.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7023e1.htm

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17 hours ago, BigJim® said:

I'm not familiar with the reference, but it seems inherently unfair for a team of NFL players to be hit economically from something that a different team is responsible for. There's literally nothing they can do to avoid it, and nothing they did wrong. 

Peer pressure.

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8 minutes ago, jobarules said:

I don't know where that article got 0.9% from. Seems too high to me. Here is a CDC source that shows MUCH lower hospitalization rates for 12-17 year olds.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7023e1.htm

she almost always links to her sources in her posts, which is why she's one of my top follows.. for that one she links to this:

https://services.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-infections/children-and-covid-19-state-level-data-report/

Quote

 

Hospitalizations (23 states and NYC reported)*

Children were 1.3%-3.6% of total reported hospitalizations, and between 0.1%-1.9% of all child COVID-19 cases resulted in hospitalization

 

and the full report that above extract link is from can be found here: https://downloads.aap.org/AAP/PDF/AAP and CHA - Children and COVID-19 State Data Report 7.15 FINAL.pdf

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Isn't the consistent news that has been out there is that there are about 3 states that are the root of 45% of new Covid cases, and that lose to 65% are from 9-10 states? 

With schools opening soon, i think one of the biggest things that could be done to slow these variants down (the hot term has been Delta now for months, but there are a good 6-7 other variants already circulating out there that will be more potent) is to restrict travel from state to state

it is great to try and educate people to get vaccinated, but do we think that will make a real difference at this point?

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1 minute ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

she almost always links to her sources in her posts, which is why she's one of my top follows.. for that one she links to this:

https://services.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-infections/children-and-covid-19-state-level-data-report/

and the full report that above extract link is from can be found here: https://downloads.aap.org/AAP/PDF/AAP and CHA - Children and COVID-19 State Data Report 7.15 FINAL.pdf

Did she take a straight average of 23 states? What about the other states? The CDC #s are much lower. 

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14 minutes ago, jobarules said:

I can't read it below the sign-up thingy either, but it's an opinion piece and his opinion seems to be only focusing on deaths. Death is not the only negative outcome of Covid. On the positive side, deaths of children have been very rare, which of course is awesome. But vaccination is not only to prevent death. It's also to prevent all the other bad #### that can potentially happen, and also help to mitigate spread. 

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2 minutes ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

I can't read it below the sign-up thingy either, but it's an opinion piece and his opinion seems to be only focusing on deaths. Death is not the only negative outcome of Covid. On the positive side, deaths of children have been very rare, which of course is awesome. But vaccination is not only to prevent death. It's also to prevent all the other bad #### that can potentially happen, and also help to mitigate spread. 

Not sure, didn't have to dig in too much on the big report vs the link you posted above. It could be a difference in which age range(s) are included in each %? Just a guess, though. 

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7 minutes ago, jobarules said:

Here's another article showing that child hospital rates are likely over counted.

https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2021/05/covid-19-hospitalizations-among-kids-likely-overcounted.html

That is an interesting point for sure, but that's one hospital with a study population of 117, so I'm not sure how statistically significant that might be. Hopefully there may be more and larger scale followups. 

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19 hours ago, SpurrierisisGod said:

So we are grappling with whether or not to make the kids get vaccinated.

17y/o is scared...has seen the myocarditis and pericarditis stories and it freaks him out.  I know the chance is miniscule in comparison to total number of vaccines but it still causes pause in the middle of camp season trying to get a soccer scholarahip.

14 y/o mostly wants it but not sure.  She's not as news savvy and more anecdotal "I saw on tiktok" but again, I cant really find an article that says "shut up dummies and get it" to prove it to her.

Doesn't help that my wife is on the fence about the kids even though we both got vaccinated early with no side effects.  We also live in alabama which has a 33% vaccination rate and loads of idiots acting like this is over... trip to Walmart today I saw 1 other person besides me wearing a mask. School in fall is going to be a train wreck.

Eta: 17 y/o girlfriend is on a volleyball scholarship at a local college and was just told "no vaccine, no play".  Her family is against the kids getting vaccines.

Similar situation at my house but I was insistent that both of my younger kids be vaccinated before school starts back. My youngest (13) seems genuinely a little scared so I’ve been giving her information and explaining things as best as I can.  My youngest son is a dopey teenage boy (15) that’s is like, whatever.  Our oldest daughter turns 18 tomorrow so we gave her the choice and she’s getting her first dose today.  Oldest and me and my wife are fully vaccinated. 

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Was at my doctor's this morning for a routine check-up. We got to talking about vaccine rates and the number of people who have not been vaccinated. He was telling me he had one patient who came in and refuses to get the vaccine because he believed the Chinese were responsible for virus warfare and he didn't want to be involved with any vaccine that might be a part of that.

So my doctor had a great response to that:

"Well, if that's the case then Americans are proving to the Chinese how weak we are. If we won't take a vaccine that can eradicate this thing we are just telling them that they can release anything unto the American people and they won't do anything to help themselves."

Just thought I would share that anecdote. 

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On 7/21/2021 at 6:44 PM, JaxBill said:

Sooooo....I've been fully vaccinated since mid-March. I went over to a friend's house Sunday. Stayed roughly an hour. We were drinking beers and talking, anywhere from 4 to 10 feet away. 

Friend texts me that he started feeling minor symptoms yesterday and got tested today. Positive. He was not vaccinated. 

Anyway,  I'm telling you this because it is damn near impossible to find a rapid test in North Florida.I finally got one for Friday afternoon.

CDC says I don't need a test unless I feel symptoms (which I don't). Still going to lay low and avoid interactions until I know for sure. (WFH so that's not an issue but skipping Thursday Happy Hour just in case)

Officially Negative.

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decided not to muck up the Olympics thread with this Covid piece, but.. well... this is a grim take. Let's hope for the best-case please! :wall:  

The Olympics Could Be a Covid-19 ‘Super-Evolutionary Event’

 

Quote

There are two extremes on the scale of probability. The best outcome anyone can hope for at this point is that with the screening program in place, only a few people will get infected or ill. A few Olympic stories will end badly. That’s already happening—athletes and the people who work with them have been denied a chance to compete in Tokyo because testing shows they’re infected. And on the far side of the scale is a super-evolutionary event that allows the development of an even more potent form of the virus and then puts it on hundreds of jet planes headed to every corner of the planet. For everyone wondering what the most likely outcome is, it’s like the Olympics, except only in the most terrifying way possible: It’s unpredictable.

 

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5 minutes ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

decided not to muck up the Olympics thread with this Covid piece, but.. well... this is a grim take. Let's hope for the best-case please! :wall:  

The Olympics Could Be a Covid-19 ‘Super-Evolutionary Event’

How much more likely is something like the Olympics turning in to this versus say what we saw with the enormous crowd for the Bucks game all together or the groups for the Euro soccer tournament?  Obviously the Olympics are unique because of that part near the end about the planes but it seems like we have other events going on that wouldn't be that far behind in the possibility of that type of event.  And like it says, this is all unpredictable.  I'm not trying to downplay, I'm genuinely curious how much more risky the Olympics will be versus some of the other stuff going on around the globe.

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1 hour ago, AAABatteries said:

How much more likely is something like the Olympics turning in to this versus say what we saw with the enormous crowd for the Bucks game all together or the groups for the Euro soccer tournament?  Obviously the Olympics are unique because of that part near the end about the planes but it seems like we have other events going on that wouldn't be that far behind in the possibility of that type of event.  And like it says, this is all unpredictable.  I'm not trying to downplay, I'm genuinely curious how much more risky the Olympics will be versus some of the other stuff going on around the globe.

Well there could be many different variants all coming together due to folks from all over the world being in one central place at the same time.

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Youngest started in person school this past week in middle school. We are all fully Pfizer vaxxed. In AZ masks at schools are optional. We’ve had her mask up which sucks because very few are wearing. Annoys the crap out of me because I can imagine that many are not vaxxed. They say they are supposed to be on guard for mask bullying and she said so far it’s been fine. Still sucks to feel like you’re one of a small minority being responsible and wearing a mask all day can’t be fun. They say they are keeping the kids 3 feet apart. I know there’s lots of crowding though especially in between classes and at llunch etc. She says most of the kids have no respect for personal space and are right up in your face when talking to you. Same as it ever was at that age. They had an assembly this week where they were in the gymnasium all on top of each other and yelling. So stupid.

We have been extremely cautious through all this and been at home for work and school since last March. It’s weird trying to navigate back into a sense of normalcy when the vast majority of people just want to proclaim COVID done but a large percentage refuse to take the steps to actually put this sucker to bed.

We decided to get her back into some activities. She thought about trying softball at school second quarter but in the end decided to do a city league instead she had been in since age three. Yesterday she decided she also wants to tryout for volleyball at school. Filled out a bunch of paperwork online and getting her a sports physical today so she can do tryouts this week. I’m sort of nervous about the whole thing. I know she is largely protected with the vax, but with in person school and now sports, which I’ve heard can be a pretty good spreader of this crap, it gives me some worry. I’ve been the super protective parent up til now and just don’t want to screw up and yet at the same time feel bad for building that wall too high and having her miss out on things.

 

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1 hour ago, cap'n grunge said:

Youngest started in person school this past week in middle school. We are all fully Pfizer vaxxed. In AZ masks at schools are optional. We’ve had her mask up which sucks because very few are wearing. Annoys the crap out of me because I can imagine that many are not vaxxed. They say they are supposed to be on guard for mask bullying and she said so far it’s been fine. Still sucks to feel like you’re one of a small minority being responsible and wearing a mask all day can’t be fun. They say they are keeping the kids 3 feet apart. I know there’s lots of crowding though especially in between classes and at llunch etc. She says most of the kids have no respect for personal space and are right up in your face when talking to you. Same as it ever was at that age. They had an assembly this week where they were in the gymnasium all on top of each other and yelling. So stupid.

We have been extremely cautious through all this and been at home for work and school since last March. It’s weird trying to navigate back into a sense of normalcy when the vast majority of people just want to proclaim COVID done but a large percentage refuse to take the steps to actually put this sucker to bed.

We decided to get her back into some activities. She thought about trying softball at school second quarter but in the end decided to do a city league instead she had been in since age three. Yesterday she decided she also wants to tryout for volleyball at school. Filled out a bunch of paperwork online and getting her a sports physical today so she can do tryouts this week. I’m sort of nervous about the whole thing. I know she is largely protected with the vax, but with in person school and now sports, which I’ve heard can be a pretty good spreader of this crap, it gives me some worry. I’ve been the super protective parent up til now and just don’t want to screw up and yet at the same time feel bad for building that wall too high and having her miss out on things.

 

I totally get being cautious (we have been to a degree) and I get being concerned but at some point we all have to recognize that we lived with risks prior to Covid and we probably will have to live with Covid going forward.  Once vaccinated I think it’s the right thing to essentially let your kid do whatever you would have let them do prior to Covid.

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On 7/21/2021 at 1:40 PM, culdeus said:

There has to be some model suggesting what is worst case situation given the level of vaccines already out, and cases already recovered.  Where is Nate Silver when you need him?

I think I'd guess we never get back to a daily death total in the US of 1000/day Even 500/day seems really unrealistic.

I think with the vaccines skewed toward the elderly and those most frail, deaths will continue to be low. 

Long COVID, oxygen use, and ICU beds on the other hand may see an uptick in certain regions with low vax adoption. 

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Every sign is school will be full send no mask no tracing everywhere.   I think people got completely flat footed by the low case numbers coming into summer and now here we are with no plan. Neat

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2 hours ago, cap&#x27;n grunge said:

Youngest started in person school this past week in middle school. We are all fully Pfizer vaxxed. In AZ masks at schools are optional. We’ve had her mask up which sucks because very few are wearing. Annoys the crap out of me because I can imagine that many are not vaxxed. They say they are supposed to be on guard for mask bullying and she said so far it’s been fine. Still sucks to feel like you’re one of a small minority being responsible and wearing a mask all day can’t be fun. They say they are keeping the kids 3 feet apart. I know there’s lots of crowding though especially in between classes and at llunch etc. She says most of the kids have no respect for personal space and are right up in your face when talking to you. Same as it ever was at that age. They had an assembly this week where they were in the gymnasium all on top of each other and yelling. So stupid.

We have been extremely cautious through all this and been at home for work and school since last March. It’s weird trying to navigate back into a sense of normalcy when the vast majority of people just want to proclaim COVID done but a large percentage refuse to take the steps to actually put this sucker to bed.

We decided to get her back into some activities. She thought about trying softball at school second quarter but in the end decided to do a city league instead she had been in since age three. Yesterday she decided she also wants to tryout for volleyball at school. Filled out a bunch of paperwork online and getting her a sports physical today so she can do tryouts this week. I’m sort of nervous about the whole thing. I know she is largely protected with the vax, but with in person school and now sports, which I’ve heard can be a pretty good spreader of this crap, it gives me some worry. I’ve been the super protective parent up til now and just don’t want to screw up and yet at the same time feel bad for building that wall too high and having her miss out on things.

 

Right there with you. My girls start back to school (preschool and 1st) on the 2nd.  We definitely intend to have them wear their masks and they do great when we’ve asked but at their age, it will be tough if no one else is. I doubt they’re gonna have teachers enforcing anything when it’s optional.

Sadly our district has been great at following the science and would absolutely be mandating masks if they were allowed to. With the rate of transmission now, I don’t think they’d even be in-person.

After a year of keeping them home, we definitely need in-person learning. It’s just sad that schools aren’t even able to do it safely with masks. Most kids don’t mind them, it’s the parents that have a problem.

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43 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Every sign is school will be full send no mask no tracing everywhere.   I think people got completely flat footed by the low case numbers coming into summer and now here we are with no plan. Neat

Not only COVID but we’re gonna get hit hard by the flu this year too.

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22 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

Right there with you. My girls start back to school (preschool and 1st) on the 2nd.  We definitely intend to have them wear their masks and they do great when we’ve asked but at their age, it will be tough if no one else is. I doubt they’re gonna have teachers enforcing anything when it’s optional.

Sadly our district has been great at following the science and would absolutely be mandating masks if they were allowed to. With the rate of transmission now, I don’t think they’d even be in-person.

After a year of keeping them home, we definitely need in-person learning. It’s just sad that schools aren’t even able to do it safely with masks. Most kids don’t mind them, it’s the parents that have a problem.

I'd feel even worse if I had kids your age where the vaccine wasn't available yet. I'm not sure I could send them back in person. I wish they would hurry up and approve the 5-11 year olds. Best of luck.

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18 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

Not only COVID but we’re gonna get hit hard by the flu this year too.

Is there a particular reason? The latest PAHO Influenza Report for EW26 indicated that North America influenza activity was at baseline and the Caribbean, Central America, Andean, Brazil and Southern Cone all remained low. 

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10 minutes ago, cap&#x27;n grunge said:

Admittedly, I skimmed the article but does this differ from last school year?  We were open essentially all last school year with no mask mandate but we did have to quarantine our kids if they were exposed.  Did that not happen in AZ?  My guess is we will do away with that this year here but we had to keep my oldest daughter home twice and youngest daughter once last year after close contact.

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6 minutes ago, ericttspikes said:

Is there a particular reason? The latest PAHO Influenza Report for EW26 indicated that North America influenza activity was at baseline and the Caribbean, Central America, Andean, Brazil and Southern Cone all remained low. 

Everything that made the flu season non-existent last year will be greatly reduced - online school, extensive masking and social distancing, cancelation of social events and high vaccination numbers. I think vaccination rates will tank this year after last year. It certainly won’t be an easy sell this year.

It might not be a bad flu season, but it will be more of typical one. A normal flu season can be rough on the hospital system. It’s possible that the current surge from Delta might bring back some caution but I’m expecting the flu to return in a big way later this year.

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14 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

Admittedly, I skimmed the article but does this differ from last school year?  We were open essentially all last school year with no mask mandate but we did have to quarantine our kids if they were exposed.  Did that not happen in AZ?  My guess is we will do away with that this year here but we had to keep my oldest daughter home twice and youngest daughter once last year after close contact.

School districts were able to put mask mandates and most did for in person learning. Now there’s a law that prevents schools from mandating masks, vaccines and even quarantining.

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2 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

Everything that made the flu season non-existent last year will be greatly reduced - online school, extensive masking and social distancing, cancelation of social events and high vaccination numbers. I think vaccination rates will tank this year after last year. It certainly won’t be an easy sell this year.

It might not be a bad flu season, but it will be more of typical one. A normal flu season can be rough on the hospital system. It’s possible that the current surge from Delta might bring back some caution but I’m expecting the flu to return in a big way later this year.

Thanks. I had thought the Southern Hemisphere was a predictive model.

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10 minutes ago, jobarules said:

:shrug:

I'm ok with that. Still highly effective against severe cases and death. Honestly, that was the selling point for the vaccines from the start. They claimed their effectiveness on preventing severe cases and death, not so much on not getting covid. We found out later from more data that they were very good against the original strain and that was promising. But if the Delta variant is breaking through but the vaccines keep people out of the hospital and dead... Good enough for me. 

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