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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (21 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
worrierking
Footballguy
Here's link I found interesting: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-07-case-intranasal-covid-vaccines.html
This is something we may need as the disease becomes endemic. Could help quickly deliver vaccines in anticipation of outbreaks.
The talk about masks in schools is a bit frustrating. I don't mean this as criticism, but some parents have adopted masks as a security blanket. It's not their fault, because it's basically the only topic we have, when we should be exploring many other options, primarily centered around ventilation. While cases were going down, nobody was really thinking about getting our schools, libraries, public transportation etc., ventilated in a way to keep people safe. I am certain the technology is there, heck, it may be as simple as opening windows and blowing fans in every classroom, but the problem is we don't have enough scientific studies to know exactly how to fix it. So we need to study it now! This school year, we need different types of ventilation studied against control groups.
In the meantime, here's a solution that I am confident will work much more effectively than masks; let's get thousands of large tents and put them in schoolyards and school parking lots and have school outside while the weather is still warm. The science is clear that outdoors is vastly safer than indoors. There is no political effort to demonize tents like there is for masks. We are not relying on 7-year-olds to keep a mask on. It's a few weeks until school starts in most places. We can have this for the fall term and it will save lives.
This is something we may need as the disease becomes endemic. Could help quickly deliver vaccines in anticipation of outbreaks.
The talk about masks in schools is a bit frustrating. I don't mean this as criticism, but some parents have adopted masks as a security blanket. It's not their fault, because it's basically the only topic we have, when we should be exploring many other options, primarily centered around ventilation. While cases were going down, nobody was really thinking about getting our schools, libraries, public transportation etc., ventilated in a way to keep people safe. I am certain the technology is there, heck, it may be as simple as opening windows and blowing fans in every classroom, but the problem is we don't have enough scientific studies to know exactly how to fix it. So we need to study it now! This school year, we need different types of ventilation studied against control groups.
In the meantime, here's a solution that I am confident will work much more effectively than masks; let's get thousands of large tents and put them in schoolyards and school parking lots and have school outside while the weather is still warm. The science is clear that outdoors is vastly safer than indoors. There is no political effort to demonize tents like there is for masks. We are not relying on 7-year-olds to keep a mask on. It's a few weeks until school starts in most places. We can have this for the fall term and it will save lives.
skol asylum
Footballguy
AAABatteries
Footballguy
The quarantining is just idiotic.
ETA - the other two aren’t great but not being able to mandate quarantining seems ridiculous
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Not good for keeping spread down.
I'm ok with that. Still highly effective against severe cases and death. Honestly, that was the selling point for the vaccines from the start. They claimed their effectiveness on preventing severe cases and death, not so much on not getting covid. We found out later from more data that they were very good against the original strain and that was promising. But if the Delta variant is breaking through but the vaccines keep people out of the hospital and dead... Good enough for me.
Doug B
Footballguy
Israel's COVID research and studies have been consistently out of step with other nations, going back to the earliest days of the pandemic. Compounding that has been the Israeli popular media's penchant for doomcasting.
I need some other nations to back up the Israeli study. Replicate. Corroborate. I'd be shocked if a bunch of other areas start reporting similar results to Israel's.
I need some other nations to back up the Israeli study. Replicate. Corroborate. I'd be shocked if a bunch of other areas start reporting similar results to Israel's.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Yeah I couldn’t believe that. Didn’t think it would be part but they actually fighting a school district that’s trying to enforce quarantines after exposure.
I thought they had some kind of special arrangement that shared data with pfizer that no other country had
PinkydaPimp
Footballguy
Ventilation was/is a big point of contention in our school district as the schools werent all well ventilated. I do think this is important and should be addressed. I like the tent option and believe some schools do this but i think in some cases the elements may not work well or safety could be an issue especially if in a city.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Take it up with the FDA.
We currently live a very strange world, where pretty much every elected leader is suggesting, pleading, and/or begging people to take a drug that isn't approved by our official approvers-of-drugs. Everybody just assumes that eventual approval is a formality, but it hasn't happened yet, and that lack of approval means something when it comes to state institutions like Purdue.
I have no idea why people think this is an acceptable arrangement. If you take the FDA seriously, you should consider Purdue's position an obvious no-brainer. I mean, of course the state isn't going to require people to take an drug that it's own regulators refuse to approve. Of course, I don't take the FDA seriously. The fact that we're all just basically ignoring it really should be a sign of how badly it needs to be rebuilt.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
To be fair, we went through a full year and change where we had no choice but to rely on really lousy mitigation measures because we didn't have anything better. As recently as a few months ago, wearing ill-fitting cloth masks and keeping a few feet away from one another were literally our best options. And they worked okay. Obviously our sad little masks weren't very good protection from a virus, but they were better than nothing. They probably had a pretty high marginal benefit compared to "doing nothing" so it made sense that everybody wore them and that we made a big deal out of them.
We haven't actually been vaccinated for very long. Looking back, I only reached the "full vaccination point -- two weeks from shot #2 -- back on 4/21, just three short months ago. Lots of people were traumatized by the pandemic, and it's not surprising that they're still clinging to the totems that kept them safe during 2020. If you're vaccinated, though, your mask is probably pretty close to pointless now. The vaccines protect you infinitely better than a mask does, and while a mask will still reduce your risk from covid a tiny bit, we're now talking about tenths and hundreths of percentage points. The marginal benefit of masking isn't literally zero, but it's got to be very close to zero. At this point, "security blanket" is about right.
beer 30
Footballguy
Said it a year ago, will say it again, put an air scrubber in every room. We have piles of money to throw at this and we pissed it away on everything but air scrubbers. Is it the cure? No. Is it proven technology that will capture a significant portion of any airborne virus? Yes.
Edit to add - outside school is an ok idea but it’s a non starter for places down south and out west. You can’t put 7 year olds in a tent in 110 degree heat regardless of how many cooling fans you point at them.
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ericttspikes
Footballguy
Preaching to the choir re: FDA, but clearly Purdue’s own decision since Indiana U requires it.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
I don't know if I'd agree with "refuse to approve," I think it's more "can't get their heads out of their own bureaucratic procedures even in a pandemic."
And yet the FDA gave accelerated approval for aducanumb (brand name Aduhelm from Biogen) against the advice of its panel of experts. It's an expensive infusion drug for Alzheimers disease which removes amyloid plaques in the brain, but has not been proven to have clinical benefit and has many safety concerns. They jumped the gun on this approval, actually there may have been improprieties and congress is investigating.
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Definitely with you on the ventilation. But I think you're missing something about masks: As a parent of two school-age children who are too young to be vaccinated, masks are a simple, cheap solution that my wife and I have direct control over (at least for our kids; obviously we don't have control over what other kids do). Even at the schoolboard level, they can pass a mask mandate tomorrow. Ventilation solutions require far more time and money, and while I agree outdoor classes might be more effective in terms of safety, they also bring a bunch of logistical concerns.
I don't know what to think about the upcoming school year. We definitely plan on sending both boys in-person, and I think we will most likely have them wear masks (although I already know the school district won't be requiring them). Given that my wife and I (and just about all the adults we see regularly) are vaxxed, the existential fear of last year is pretty much gone, and that's no small thing. But I would still really prefer that none of us get Covid, and I feel like we should take reasonable steps to ensure that doesn't happen.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Something I'm confused about: For the last year and a half, we've been hearing a lot about "viral load". My understanding was that it was the main determinant of severity; when my father-in-law came down with his ultimately fatal case of Covid, his doctor explained to us that for whatever reason, he simply had a higher viral load, and that was why, even though he was in excellent health, they were unable to treat it successfully.
But now I'm hearing that the Delta variant produces a higher viral load that makes it more transmissible but not more deadly. So what happened? Has there been a shift in the consensus opinion on the significance of viral load? Is the media using imprecise terms? Did we misunderstand my FIL's doctor last year?
But now I'm hearing that the Delta variant produces a higher viral load that makes it more transmissible but not more deadly. So what happened? Has there been a shift in the consensus opinion on the significance of viral load? Is the media using imprecise terms? Did we misunderstand my FIL's doctor last year?
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Insoxicated
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Insoxicated
culdeus
Footballguy
Viral load you spew isn't necessarily what is transmitted.
Delta is like changing the shot size in a 12 gauge. As least thats my read.
Depends on what they mean by ‘more deadly’ because any variant right now is bound to cause a lower % of death because most higher risk patients are vaccinated. Which means those who are hospitalized are more likely to survive. If they mean that the higher viral load doesn’t cause more severe illness, I’d be surprised. My understanding is that the higher viral load would put more people at risk of severe illness than if they were infected with a previous strain.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
I really don’t want to keep my kids home again this year (7 and 4.5).
As of now, masks are optional. They ask teachers who are not vaccinated to wear masks, but they are not requiring proof of vaccination. No clue if they updated ventilation systems anywhere. PA had a big movement to get teachers the JJ vaccine in the spring to open schools back up, so the vaxxed teachers are mostly JJ.
When my kids get sick, it always seems to hit them hard. My wife has an autoimmune condition (we both are vaxxed with moderna) so there is always concern the boys are compromised in some way.
Parents shouldn’t be getting put into these situations because of politics. We had an in-person school spring where things went very well with masking and distancing. These kids are still not vaccinated— why change it now???
I think there is still a chance my district changes, because these were “summer guidelines” but who knows.
As of now, masks are optional. They ask teachers who are not vaccinated to wear masks, but they are not requiring proof of vaccination. No clue if they updated ventilation systems anywhere. PA had a big movement to get teachers the JJ vaccine in the spring to open schools back up, so the vaxxed teachers are mostly JJ.
When my kids get sick, it always seems to hit them hard. My wife has an autoimmune condition (we both are vaxxed with moderna) so there is always concern the boys are compromised in some way.
Parents shouldn’t be getting put into these situations because of politics. We had an in-person school spring where things went very well with masking and distancing. These kids are still not vaccinated— why change it now???
I think there is still a chance my district changes, because these were “summer guidelines” but who knows.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
First of all, this stuff always ends up confusing me, and I screwed up when I said "more deadly" instead of "more severe". I remember a few months back when the first major variant emerged (I think we called it the UK variant at the time, but it's now called Alpha) some statistician modeled two scenarios: one where a variant was twice as transmissible (double the R0) and one where it was twice as severe (double the IFR). What he showed was that the latter scenario would result in twice as many deaths, but the former would result in like nine times as many, because exponentially more people would get infected.Biff84 said:
So if Delta is more transmissible, that means it likely is more deadly, in the sense of ultimately killing more people. However, what I have been hearing is that it is not more severe (although I don't believe that's confirmed yet). And you are of course correct in that you can't compare total IFR now to what it was pre-vaccine. But I believe (and someone can correct me if I'm wrong here) that when they say it has the same severity they are talking about solely among the unvaccinated.
Anyway, none of this discussion gets at the thing that seems to be puzzling all of us, which is how Delta can cause a higher viral load but not cause more severe symptoms. There just seems to be some kind of disconnect here. Either we're wrong about the higher viral load thing, or Delta does in fact increase severity, or understanding around viral load has changed, or media reports are being imprecise in their terms (kinda like how I was in my earlier post).
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Mine are 11 and 6, and I'm totally with you on wanting them in school. Last year, we sent the older one back in February and kept the younger one home (for complicated reasons having nothing to do with the virus or his health). Given the low incidence of school outbreaks, I felt like the situation was pretty safe. The two things that have me nervous for the upcoming year are a) Delta and b) likely lower rates of masking. We live in Miami, so the likelihood of a district-wide mask mandate would seem to be pretty low. But our town leans left, so I'm hoping that, even if it's voluntary, there's a fairly high rate of masking. (And for the record, I hate that political orientation should affect that, but here we are). At a minimum, I hope there's a high enough rate that my sons don't feel any peer pressure not to wear their own masks.
The one thing that I find most reassuring is the knowledge that the nightmare scenario from last year -- that they bring home the virus from school and end up infecting us or, God forbid, my immunocompromised mother-in-law -- seems to be off the table. But yeah, I'm still a little nervous.
If you think there's a chance of your district keeping the mask mandate in place, I would certainly recommend advocating for it. I just feel like the cost-benefit analysis of risk mitigation vs. inconvenience makes it worthwhile among a mostly unvaxxed population.
worrierking
Footballguy
Someone upthread posted the news that the Pfizer vaccine was only proving 39% effective against infection in Israel. I saw Dr. Campbell's weekend youtube update https://youtu.be/wNbs4LCgrcY in which he explains that they are finding considerable waning of effectiveness over time. For instance people vaccinated in January are only seeing 16 percent effectiveness with the percentage improving with each following month. Severe disease remains low in vaccinated individuals (whew!).
Some of this may be related to age. The oldest populations were vaccinated first, with ages going lower as the months passed. Younger people may have longer immunity, but we won't know that for a while.
They are not seeing the same thing in the UK, where most of the second shots were much later, due to the British strategy of getting first shots in quickly and worrying about second doses later.
This is only for Pfizer, but I suspect we'll see similar issues with the other vaccines, as it's probably our bodies that are the issue, not any individual vaccine.
This is actually good news in one sense. This is not just the Delta Variant overpowering the vaccines, which would make controlling the disease long-term very difficult. This may be partly that, but at least we have the opportunity with boosters to beat the variant down.
We'll likely need boosters, perhaps annually, maybe more frequently for at-risk.
Some of this may be related to age. The oldest populations were vaccinated first, with ages going lower as the months passed. Younger people may have longer immunity, but we won't know that for a while.
They are not seeing the same thing in the UK, where most of the second shots were much later, due to the British strategy of getting first shots in quickly and worrying about second doses later.
This is only for Pfizer, but I suspect we'll see similar issues with the other vaccines, as it's probably our bodies that are the issue, not any individual vaccine.
This is actually good news in one sense. This is not just the Delta Variant overpowering the vaccines, which would make controlling the disease long-term very difficult. This may be partly that, but at least we have the opportunity with boosters to beat the variant down.
We'll likely need boosters, perhaps annually, maybe more frequently for at-risk.
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Insoxicated
Have had a bit of a sore throat and muscle soreness since Sunday AM. Nothing bad but it's there.
Played Golf for the first time in a while which could be it, but also was out in public a good bit late last week.
Likely nothing, but out of an abundance of caution I've scheduled a rapid COVID test for tomorrow afternoon.
Recap of basic pertinent info:
44yo Male, Some comorbidities (Hypertension / Overweight)... have avoided COVID infection thus far... 2nd Moderna shot was Mid Feb.
Played Golf for the first time in a while which could be it, but also was out in public a good bit late last week.
Likely nothing, but out of an abundance of caution I've scheduled a rapid COVID test for tomorrow afternoon.
Recap of basic pertinent info:
44yo Male, Some comorbidities (Hypertension / Overweight)... have avoided COVID infection thus far... 2nd Moderna shot was Mid Feb.
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Rustoleum
Footballguy
Good luck, @[icon]
My stepmother and sister (both fully vaccinated) tested positive this weekend. So far, my dad, who has had roughly 732 heart bypasses, is still negative and his house is big enough he can pretty well isolate from my stepmother.
Neither of the two has been anywhere near needing hospitalization, but then again they didn’t decide to go get tested on a whim either.
My stepmother and sister (both fully vaccinated) tested positive this weekend. So far, my dad, who has had roughly 732 heart bypasses, is still negative and his house is big enough he can pretty well isolate from my stepmother.
Neither of the two has been anywhere near needing hospitalization, but then again they didn’t decide to go get tested on a whim either.
quick-hands
Footballguy
The Commish
Footballguy
Viral load is simply the measure of the amount of virus in a person's blood. This can be for multiple reasons. The virus can simply be aggressive and mutate really fast to achieve that result, or it can be a product of how long the virus has been in one's system and the individual's immune system success/failure in slowing it. Viral load can be "high" because it's just an aggressive virus that replicates really fast OR it can be "high" because a normal replicating virus is in the system but the immune response is slow.ignatiusjreilly said:
The doctor above was basically telling you that there was a lot of virus in his body. That's either because they detected it after it had been there a while, they detected it in a normal period of time but immune system wasn't combating it to keep it down, or it was a mutation that learned to replicate quickly (maybe early onset of delta variant or something). Hope that makes a little more sense.
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Insoxicated
Playful hyperbole I presume. I do the same thing all the time ("I think I drank 2300 beers last night")
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Sounds like Pfizer thinks they will be ready to go in September, however, based on what they are hearing from FDA, that it likely won't be approved until "Mid-Winter" because FDA wants 6+ months of follow-up -- which is what, February? Dosage of 10mg as opposed to the adult 30mg.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
I am assuming 6 months from getting the vaccine. They were enrolling kids in the spring.
FDA just asked them to expand the trial group
https://www.yahoo.com/news/pfizer-biontech-moderna-expand-studies-174948226.html
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Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Hence January or February at best for the kids. So let's have flu season and a covid-spike at the same time and not have any mitigation in-place for the one subset that cannot get vaccinated.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
My wife and I and kids are vaccinated and when school starts this Fall our kids will not be wearing masks. Do you have someone in your immediate family that is unvaccinated? Curious why your kids are wearing masks in school.
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Insoxicated
Some folks think about people other than themselves*.
Even if their immediate family are vaccinated...If their kid gets it and passes it along to someone else who's elderly/high-risk (even if vaccinated), or someone who's NOT vaccinated... that would suck.
If you distill down our end goal, it's to stop transmission. Wearing a mask largely does that.
EDIT: This * is not an attack at you, just a general statement. Wanted to clarify.
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Sorry but we are past that point as people have had sufficient time to get vaccinated so that is not a concern at all to me. That is their choice and vaccinated people should not be inconvenienced with masks anymore.Some folks think about people other than themselves*.
Even if their immediate family are vaccinated...If their kid gets it and passes it along to someone else who's elderly/high-risk (even if vaccinated), or someone who's NOT vaccinated... that would suck.
If you distill down our end goal, it's to stop transmission. Wearing a mask largely does that.
EDIT: This * is not an attack at you, just a general statement. Wanted to clarify.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Kids have no choice in their vaccination status. Teachers, even vaccinated, may still be able to spread it. Some schools have hundreds of children -- all unprotected and not due to anything they have chosen.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
The Catholic schools in the N.O. area (gigantic here) have been waiting for an official CDC announcement before deciding on a masking recommendation for this coming school year. This will get them going.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Or, as my friend who still won't get vaxxed called it, "hot mess garbage from the CDC" :(
