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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (14 Viewers)

I'm not posting links such as these because I want to convince anyone that Covid is definitely dangerous for children. Hell, I'm not convinced myself. and I would caution anyone against making definitive conclusions based on a few data points.

Still, after hearing over and over for the past year that children aren't affected by it, I do think it's important for parents to hear respected voices making the counterargument. As a parent myself, I want to learn as much as I can about the question. And in general, I'm probably going to err on the side of caution. Which is not to say I'm going to lock my boys in their rooms, or even prevent them from going to in-person school. But indoor dining with the kids is already out for the time being, and masks are looking more and more likely no matter what the official policy of Miami-Dade County Public Schools

Dr. Mark Kline Physician-in-Chief at Children's Hospital New Orleans: "This delta variant is every infectious disease specialist's worst nightmare.. There was a myth.. that children were somehow immune... It has become very clear that children are heavily impacted"
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-OZ- said:
Facebook is blowing up tonight.

School starts Wednesday, open house was today. Maybe half the people wore masks. A couple hours later, the superintendent sends an email stating masks will be required for everyone again, at least for the start of the school year. Parents are pissed. Honestly, it's the right call but it could have been made last week to give time to get masks for those who haven't worn them recently and some are starting to wear out. 

My office has had masks required now for a week, mostly because our state is the lowest vaccinated. Most of us just continue to WFH (No surprise)

Here we go again. 🙇🏻‍♂️
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Schools in PA already sent out literature the last week or so saying everyone at the schools included vaccinated will be wearing masks to start the school year 

 
Pip's Invitation said:
Obviously I wasn't there, so the exchange probably didn't happen as abruptly as that, but it's very much the kind of thing he would say to someone he didn't respect. 
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That was very much the impression I got from your description. Nothing wrong with doing it, but if you're in an argument and you pull out the "you're a fat pig" bazooka, you're sending the message that you don't care if you burn the whole thing down

 
gianmarco said:
Video from Louisiana hospital and bed shortage

This is just so infuriating to watch. We know, from the numbers, that we were at least able to slow spread last year with lockdowns and masks and distancing before a vaccine was available. Then, after the vaccine was out, we watched numbers plummet. Finally, at this point, we are seeing numbers surge, and it's because we've eliminated masks and distancing and lockdowns yet there are still so many without the vaccine. Of course, it's the unvaccinated that are filling up most of the hospital beds with this. 

It's like a huge science experiment playing out before us and yet there are still so many that doubt what's going on or question whether the vaccine is worth it.

The problem, however, as you can see from the video above, is that beds are being filled to capacity which affects everyone, whether you have Covid or not. You could be vaccinated, but if you have a heart attack or a stroke or need to be in the hospital for any other number of reasons, your ability to be taken care and treated is being impacted. 

And this is why we need to consider the measures we employed pre vaccine to help limit spread even if you are vaccinated. What's going on now is affecting everyone. When large centers like OLOL get overwhelmed, it trickles down to other areas that can't transfer patients there as well. 

And virtually all of this from those unwilling to get the vaccine but still returning to normal life as if this thing isn't still going on and as if it doesn't affect others.

It's maddening.
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I'm at the point where I just don't feel sorry for them anymore. They made their decisions a long time ago. Maybe that makes me a horrible person to some but honestly why try and stop something from spreading if it's only effecting the people who won't get vaccinated. I'll do everything for the kids who can't get Vaxxed yet but once they all are I wouldn't bat an eye lash at the anti vaxxers and conspirator people suffering. It's called accountability. If you want to be ignorant or poorly educated thats on you at this point. Not our job to point you to the right path. 

This statement excludes those who can't get vaccinated but want to do to health reasons or younger kids btw. 

 
ignatiusjreilly said:
That was very much the impression I got from your description. Nothing wrong with doing it, but if you're in an argument and you pull out the "you're a fat pig" bazooka, you're sending the message that you don't care if you burn the whole thing down
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Yep. According to him (not the most reliable narrator), he had previously tried to be more subtle in his persuasions. For example, noting that she was being prevented by her daughter from seeing her 2-year-old granddaughter because she wouldn't get vaxxed. It sounds like the junk food conversation came after many less incendiary ones. 

 
Pip's Invitation said:
My brother-in-law broke up with his girlfriend because she wouldn't get vaccinated. One of their pivotal arguments was when she said "I don't know what's in it and it may be bad for my body" and he said "do you know what's in the junk food that you eat constantly?"
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I just had this convo with one of the girls at work. She eats a lot healthy then when I first met her but I reminded her all that junk food she ate in the past is probably worse then any type of vaccine. Also her Husband nor her son are Vaccinated. Her uncle who is 67 and has a brain of a 8 yrs old is vaccinated but literally can't live on his own. I not only talked to her about the junk food but also asked her if she thought what would happen to her uncle if they all got sick. Who's taking care of them etc.

My book keeper waned her to get vaccinated since she was concerned with her and takes care of an elderly family member. Her husband who's a big conspiracy guy came in the store barking at my bosses about forcing his wife to get it and the cops had to almost come and haul him away. He eventually calmed down but only after someone explained to him we weren't forcing his wife to do anything. 

She does BTW still wear a mask since she's not vaccinated. 

NJ just put into place that alll frontline workers must be vaccinated by Sept 7 or have to get tested every 2 weeks if not. 

 
FYI, last night my 11 year old had a stuffy nose and was running a mild fever. We didn't have any reason to think it was Covid, but briefly considered whether we should get a Covid test before sending him to day camp this morning. The problem was, it was Sunday evening and there was nowhere to get a test, much less a rapid one.

He woke up this morning feeling much better and we sent him to camp, so ultimately no worries, but to avoid having this problem in the future I went to CVS and picked up a couple antigen testing kits. They were $24 each for a kit with two tests. They pitch it as, you should take one test and then a second one three days later, but I figure now we have one test available for every member of the family if we need it in a pinch. I'm actually less worried about a camp/school situation as I am one where we're all planning on traveling somewhere and get a scare the night before.

Anyway, just like people were investing in pulse oximeters early in the pandemic, I think a couple of rapid testing kits is probably a good thing to have lying around the house right now, especially with lines at testing facilities growing longer and longer. I had heard stores are running low on these as well, but the CVS I went to seemed to have plenty in stock.

 
ignatiusjreilly said:
That was very much the impression I got from your description. Nothing wrong with doing it, but if you're in an argument and you pull out the "you're a fat pig" bazooka, you're sending the message that you don't care if you burn the whole thing down
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Honestly I would've done the same as his BIL. I just don't have much respect for those people or the clowns who try to use the "my body my choice" like they can use it similar to women use it and they use it in the worst way possible. If you are one of those pro lifers and use that you are nothing more than a hypocrite. 

You want to control a very big aspect of a women's body. You also don't care if keeping that child runs the risk of said women/girl having life threatening complications herself because your make believe sky person says its wrong ( and you only hide behind the religion to defend your bigotry and ignorance). On the other hand your decision to not be vaccinated not only effects your life but millions of other people in your family, your country, your state and your country. 

 
Pip's Invitation said:
Yep. According to him (not the most reliable narrator), he had previously tried to be more subtle in his persuasions. For example, noting that she was being prevented by her daughter from seeing her 2-year-old granddaughter because she wouldn't get vaxxed. It sounds like the junk food conversation came after many less incendiary ones. 
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Sounds more like a last resort and a "if this doesn't change your mind remark nothing will and I'm done with you" type deal. Sounds like he tried every avenue possible before that and just didn't throw that out right away. 

 
DJackson10 said:
I'm at the point where I just don't feel sorry for them anymore. They made their decisions a long time ago. Maybe that makes me a horrible person to some but honestly why try and stop something from spreading if it's only effecting the people who won't get vaccinated. I'll do everything for the kids who can't get Vaxxed yet but once they all are I wouldn't bat an eye lash at the anti vaxxers and conspirator people suffering. It's called accountability. If you want to be ignorant or poorly educated thats on you at this point. Not our job to point you to the right path. 

This statement excludes those who can't get vaccinated but want to do to health reasons or younger kids btw. 
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You missed the whole point of my post. It's NOT just affecting those that aren't vaccinated. The unvaccinated are filling up hospital beds with Covid. That impacts vaccinated people that need those beds for things other than Covid.

 
DJackson10 said:
Sounds more like a last resort and a "if this doesn't change your mind remark nothing will and I'm done with you" type deal. Sounds like he tried every avenue possible before that and just didn't throw that out right away. 
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From what I can tell, yes. But again, he has been known to be an unreliable narrator. 

I'm actually quite pleased with his attitude on this, because he does hold views on some other things that I don't gibe with at all. 

 
DJackson10 said:
I'm at the point where I just don't feel sorry for them anymore. They made their decisions a long time ago. Maybe that makes me a horrible person to some but honestly why try and stop something from spreading if it's only effecting the people who won't get vaccinated. I'll do everything for the kids who can't get Vaxxed yet but once they all are I wouldn't bat an eye lash at the anti vaxxers and conspirator people suffering. It's called accountability. If you want to be ignorant or poorly educated thats on you at this point. Not our job to point you to the right path. 

This statement excludes those who can't get vaccinated but want to do to health reasons or younger kids btw. 
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I get the sentiment, but keep in mind that the lines aren't so neatly drawn. There are lots of people who aren't necessarily "anti-vax" but have a number of factors pushing them against getting the shot. It's hard for them to get time off of work and/or to recover from side effects, they don't know where to go to get it, and yes, they've heard lots of misinformation that makes them wary. Point being, they are definitely persuadable, and we shouldn't give up on them. In fact, we can't afford to. We may be able to get to something close to herd immunity (or at least drastically lower numbers) if the only holdouts are the hard-core anti-vaxxers. But there's no way we can with the number of unvaccinated we have now.

 
gianmarco said:
You missed the whole point of my post. It's NOT just affecting those that aren't vaccinated. The unvaccinated are filling up hospital beds with Covid. That impacts vaccinated people that need those beds for things other than Covid.
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Oh I get your point. I'm more so saying I feel less sorry for the ignorant ones then I had in the past because it's effecting everyone. 

 
ignatiusjreilly said:
I get the sentiment, but keep in mind that the lines aren't so neatly drawn. There are lots of people who aren't necessarily "anti-vax" but have a number of factors pushing them against getting the shot. It's hard for them to get time off of work and/or to recover from side effects, they don't know where to go to get it, and yes, they've heard lots of misinformation that makes them wary. Point being, they are definitely persuadable, and we shouldn't give up on them. In fact, we can't afford to. We may be able to get to something close to herd immunity (or at least drastically lower numbers) if the only holdouts are the hard-core anti-vaxxers. But there's no way we can with the number of unvaccinated we have now.
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I'm talking about the actual anti vaxxers, conspiracy theories crowd. Maybe I didn't make it so clearly. I do get why some can't get vaxxed right now and such. I think people's jobs need to make it easier for them. My work with our union they were able to work with the company to get those who wanted a shot got one. Helped us schedule the appointments and if we needed rides had at leas one other coworker who could go and could take said person go. We had one group do a car pull do to the volume of public transit people going. 

If someone's work isn't allowing them time to get the shot the employer can kindly remind said employer about worker rights and health and if they can't get it they'll be hearing from a lawyer. I know that's exactly what I'd do and making sure to tell them I'm going to every news station and paper I can about it. Companies hate that bad press and change their minds. fast on those things. 

 
DJackson10 said:
I'm talking about the actual anti vaxxers, conspiracy theories crowd. Maybe I didn't make it so clearly. I do get why some can't get vaxxed right now and such. I think people's jobs need to make it easier for them. My work with our union they were able to work with the company to get those who wanted a shot got one. Helped us schedule the appointments and if we needed rides had at leas one other coworker who could go and could take said person go. We had one group do a car pull do to the volume of public transit people going. 

If someone's work isn't allowing them time to get the shot the employer can kindly remind said employer about worker rights and health and if they can't get it they'll be hearing from a lawyer. I know that's exactly what I'd do and making sure to tell them I'm going to every news station and paper I can about it. Companies hate that bad press and change their minds. fast on those things. 
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Understood. I do still strive to have sympathy for even the misguided, and to hope they will come around, but like I said, I definitely get the sentiment. The past year and a half has definitely tested all of our patience with regard to people who simply can't conceive of acting in a way that benefits the public good

 
nirad3 said:
I have an N95, which I'm hoping isn't "expired", that I plan on using for my next business trip.  Otherwise I'm just using the standard, 2-layer cloth masks that fit decently over my nose, mouth, and down around my chin.  I have a pretty fat beard so I'm sure that's causing some gaps.  

If I'm at the doctor's office, I'm wearing a mask.  If I'm walking into a sit-down restaurant, I just don't see the point.  I'm going to take it off 2 minutes later as I sit down and start having a beverage or whatever.

I'm starting to consider just masking back up at grocery stores, Target, etc.  It's not a huge hassle.  I mean, don't get me wrong, I'm sick and tired of them, but if it provides 20-30% more protection on top of my Pfizer jab, then maybe it's smart to just mask up.

I hang out with buddies outside.  I'm not shoulder-to-shoulder at bars anymore.  I'll wait on that.  

I am in my office twice weekly, and do not mask up.  I'm 6' or more away from people 90% of the time.
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If you are from HB—as I’m also from HB—I can hook you up with some 3M N-95’s if you need some.  I manage a shop in Newport. Feel free to PM me and I can have you meet me there and I can give you 5 or 6 masks. 

 
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jobarules said:
The breakthrough infection rate is less than 1%. Wearing a mask and using your numbers would change your chances of protection to around 0.7%.
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The breakthrough infection rate is likely far more than 1%.  I personally know several people who have contracted covid once vaccinated. A lot of people that contract covid after being full vaccinated have very mild symptoms or no symptoms at all—so they never get tested—and hence—they never get reported.    

I am of the belief that everything and anything that can be done to collectively reduce the amount of virus spread out there is a benefit to society—including masking amongst the vaccinated.  I’m fully vaccinated and I still mask and will continue planning on doing so. The virus is constantly mutating and the vaccines are losing efficacy with each passing day.   Every time the disease spreads into somebody new—it learns something—and with Delta—the spread is rapid and massive.   

Let’s call a spade a spade.  Delta is a game changer.  You basically have a pneumonia-style disease that spreads as easy as Chicken pox.  I know the masks are annoying—but if a large portion of the public wore them—it would dent the spread. 

 
First day of school in the books and gotta say I set my expectations for society too high. I’m in AZ and we’re not allowed to mandate masks. Our school district was pretty strict all of last year, following the recommendations and only fully opening when they were essentially forced to. Our area seems to have a population of well educated professionals.

Last night they sent out a robocall saying that while they can’t require masks, they are highly suggested for everyone regardless of vaccination status. I didn’t have high expectations thinking maybe 50-50 but it wasn’t even close. In both the pre-K and 1st grade classes only one other kid wore a mask outside of our girls. Literally 10% of the class and very few of the teachers and staff. I guess we just hope for the best that no one gets seriously sick because people will only do the right thing if you force them to.

 
Doug B said:
Freedom Williams said it best. Small sample size, anecdotal, all that. And yet.

...

@[icon], @IvanKaramazov -- think you guys might be interested in this post from elsewhere (#401 here), with backing data:

EDIT: @Rich Conway and @BigJim® too
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Awesome find re: Provincetown Breakthrough data. 
 

I am ABSOLUTELY interested in any data that can be found breaking out J&J / Pfizer / Moderna with breakthrough cases. I think this may end up being a decent sized variable in the equation. 

 
[icon] said:
Awesome find re: Provincetown Breakthrough data. 
 

I am ABSOLUTELY interested in any data that can be found breaking out J&J / Pfizer / Moderna with breakthrough cases. I think this may end up being a decent sized variable in the equation. 
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Yeah, this is pretty interesting.  I got the Moderna vaccine because it was the one offered to me, not because I carefully researched its relative efficacy or anything like that.  My son -- who lives several hours away -- has J&J.  I'll keep him in my prayers ;)  

 
ignatiusjreilly said:
FYI, last night my 11 year old had a stuffy nose and was running a mild fever. We didn't have any reason to think it was Covid, but briefly considered whether we should get a Covid test before sending him to day camp this morning. The problem was, it was Sunday evening and there was nowhere to get a test, much less a rapid one.

He woke up this morning feeling much better and we sent him to camp, so ultimately no worries, but to avoid having this problem in the future I went to CVS and picked up a couple antigen testing kits. They were $24 each for a kit with two tests. They pitch it as, you should take one test and then a second one three days later, but I figure now we have one test available for every member of the family if we need it in a pinch. I'm actually less worried about a camp/school situation as I am one where we're all planning on traveling somewhere and get a scare the night before.

Anyway, just like people were investing in pulse oximeters early in the pandemic, I think a couple of rapid testing kits is probably a good thing to have lying around the house right now, especially with lines at testing facilities growing longer and longer. I had heard stores are running low on these as well, but the CVS I went to seemed to have plenty in stock.
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This was us last week.  But luckily we have a pediatric urgent case that you can just walk into.  Still had to keep him home from daycare until we had a negative test however which took a few days . The at home tears are handy for sure.  I got a pcr was well and still don’t have results but took the antigen and got results in 20 mins.  Worth grabbing a few.  Grandparents coming over, take the test to be safe.  

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Yeah, this is pretty interesting.  I got the Moderna vaccine because it was the one offered to me, not because I carefully researched its relative efficacy or anything like that.  My son -- who lives several hours away -- has J&J.  I'll keep him in my prayers ;)  
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Team Moderna  :boxing:   :hifive:

#SuperHero #GetTheTattoo

 
California Covid Cases Up 50% Since Thursday As Evidence Mounts Of Rapid Spread Among Kids

https://deadline.com/2021/08/california-covid-cases-up-fifty-percent-spread-among-kids-1234807685/

"In the two-week period ending July 18, there were 89 cases per 100,000 people age 0 to 4 and 112 cases per 100,000 age 5 to 11. While there were no pediatric Covid deaths recorded in the county for the period from June 18 to July 18. Ferrer’s presentation to the board indicated that the hospitalization rate for children age 0 to 4 in Los Angeles County has doubled in a month. See chart below."

 
Doug B said:
Freedom Williams said it best. Small sample size, anecdotal, all that. And yet.

...

@[icon], @IvanKaramazov -- think you guys might be interested in this post from elsewhere (#401 here), with backing data:

EDIT: @Rich Conway and @BigJim® too
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Playing devil's advocate for a moment, all of the early, big vaccination drives in my area featured one particular vaccine (Moderna in my case) and nobody had any choice over what vaccine they got.  You showed up, took the shot they gave you, and that was that.  

Any chance that J&J just happened to be the designated go-to vaccine for the Provincetown/MA/New England area?  That would bring the base rate fallacy back into play . . . 

 
[icon] said:
Awesome find re: Provincetown Breakthrough data. 
 

I am ABSOLUTELY interested in any data that can be found breaking out J&J / Pfizer / Moderna with breakthrough cases. I think this may end up being a decent sized variable in the equation. 
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Not sure if it's been mentioned in this thread yet, but a study out of Singapore (still under peer review) is out with a bit more insight on breakthrough cases and efficacy.  The paper can be found here and an overview article here

 
SpurrierisisGod said:
Honestly that's an angle I hadn't thought of as a valid argument.  Thanks for bringing that up and I will use that for my son, my soccer team and others.

My family has a history of heart issues.  I'm ok for now (minus hypertension) but my argument with my 17yo up until now has been "to protect others blah blah blah".

With this line of thinking I will now go to him and say "if you dummies won't go get vaccinated and I have a heart episode, docs may not be able to bring me back" is an argument that hits home. 

My hesitancy with him has been (I know it's minute) the myo/pericarditis angle.  We are balls to the wall soccer right now with club soccer and scholarship offers etc that it a legitimate issue.  Small, but legitimate. 
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I posted this info a few pages back.  It might help convince your teenager. Among teen boys, the risk of myocarditis is six times greater from a COVID-19 infection than it is from a vaccine.  Not peer reviewed:

https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2021/07/31/coronavirus-teen-vaccine-less-heart-risk-sick-study/7241627680038/

 
Doug B said:
Freedom Williams said it best. Small sample size, anecdotal, all that. And yet.

...

@[icon], @IvanKaramazov -- think you guys might be interested in this post from elsewhere (#401 here), with backing data:

EDIT: @Rich Conway and @BigJim® too
Click to expand...
A little confused reading the CDC doc. Since I got Moderna, the 75% J&J/25% Pfizer breakthrough quote was reassuring, but the document linked gives different numbers for Massachusetts:

Among the 469 cases in Massachusetts residents, 346 (74%) occurred in persons who were fully vaccinated; of these, 301 (87%) were male, with a median age of 42 years. Vaccine products received by persons experiencing breakthrough infections were Pfizer-BioNTech (159; 46%), Moderna (131; 38%), and Janssen (56; 16%); among fully vaccinated persons in the Massachusetts general population, 56% had received Pfizer-BioNTech, 38% had received Moderna, and 7% had received Janssen vaccine products.
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ignatiusjreilly said:
FYI, last night my 11 year old had a stuffy nose and was running a mild fever. We didn't have any reason to think it was Covid, but briefly considered whether we should get a Covid test before sending him to day camp this morning. The problem was, it was Sunday evening and there was nowhere to get a test, much less a rapid one.

He woke up this morning feeling much better and we sent him to camp, so ultimately no worries, but to avoid having this problem in the future I went to CVS and picked up a couple antigen testing kits. They were $24 each for a kit with two tests. They pitch it as, you should take one test and then a second one three days later, but I figure now we have one test available for every member of the family if we need it in a pinch. I'm actually less worried about a camp/school situation as I am one where we're all planning on traveling somewhere and get a scare the night before.

Anyway, just like people were investing in pulse oximeters early in the pandemic, I think a couple of rapid testing kits is probably a good thing to have lying around the house right now, especially with lines at testing facilities growing longer and longer. I had heard stores are running low on these as well, but the CVS I went to seemed to have plenty in stock.
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I had a similar experience with my (at the time 5) now 6 year old.  Mild fever, complained of a mild headache.  Took him to pediatrician who diagnosed him with sinus infection and prescribed an antibiotic.  He felt totally fine within 12 hours of first dose.  On then way out of dr office, they asked if we would like a covid test, and we said sure.  This was a Thursday, and on Sunday I get the call that his test came back positive.  Issue was we had let him play with friends on that Saturday thinking it had only need a sinus infection and he’s now fine.  Had to call parents of those kids, which was not fun.  No one else caught it, thank goodness (it was likely after his highly contagious period).  Looking back all he had was a fever and a headache (and two very odd bed wettings which we thought we were long past), and he was better after about 2 days.  After news of test we self isolated as a family for 10 days, though my state’s contact tracer said that my wife and I (both vaxxed) would have no restrictions, just him.  

 
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Great Twitter thread I can't post from phone right now:  infection rates among children under 12 in MA are less than 10% infection rates among U12 children in FL or LA.  Because vax and masks and etc are happening at a much higher rate among ADULTS.  It's true that risks for young kids are low and 10x a small number is still a small number, but it highlights the value of the vax and other interventions for the unvaxxed generally. 

 
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BigJim® said:
A little confused reading the CDC doc. Since I got Moderna, the 75% J&J/25% Pfizer breakthrough quote was reassuring, but the document linked gives different numbers for Massachusetts
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75%/25% wasn't for the state -- it was for the breakdown of the Provincetown breakthroughs. Weirdly, the information is in the footnotes ... about 2/3 of the way down the annotations after the 'Acknowledgements' section. Caveat: of course, a very small sample size:

"One vaccinated, hospitalized COVID-19 patient had received the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine and three had received the Janssen vaccine."
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Even with the one-offs and the anecdotes and the small sample sizes ... at the moment, when you aggregate different snippets of data together, the mRNA vaccines are looking solid as a group. And it's speculatively -- speculatively, now -- looking like Moderna's bigger dose has been an advantage vs. Delta.

EDIT: Adding the part that was footnoted for clarity:

Five were hospitalized; as of July 27, no deaths were reported. One hospitalized patient (age range = 50–59 years) was not vaccinated and had multiple underlying medical conditions.†† Four additional, fully vaccinated patients§§ aged 20–70 years were also hospitalized, two of whom had underlying medical conditions.
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Then in the footnotes:

§§ One vaccinated, hospitalized COVID-19 patient had received the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine and three had received the Janssen vaccine
Click to expand...

 
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Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Great Twitter thread I can't post from phone right now:  infection rates among children under 12 in MA are less than 10% infection rates among U12 children in FL or LA.  Because vax and masks and etc are happening at a much higher rate among ADULTS.  It's true that risks for young kids are low and 10x a small number is still a small number, but it highlights the value of the vax and other interventions for the unvaxxed generally. 
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This must be it:

Despite stark differences in vaccinations by state, In Louisiana, 0% of kids under 12 vaccinated In Florida, 0% of kids under 12 vaccinated Even in high vax Massachusetts 0% of kids under 12 vaccinated So if we're in a pandemic of the unvaccinated, are these kids in trouble?

Actually, while vaccination rates for kids under 12 are identical (0%) across states, Infection numbers are not
In Massachusetts, about 250 kids under 10 years of age infected last week
In Florida, it was about 9,000
In Louisiana, it was about 1600

Florida had 12X as many kids infected as Massachusetts last week And Louisiana? About 10X So what's going on? None of these kids are vaccinated! So why are infection rates so much lower in MA? Right, because kids are protected by adults

Kid infection numbers driven largely by infection numbers in adults In Israel, we saw that as adults got vaccinated Infection numbers in kids plummeted So how do I best protect my 9 year-old unvaccinated kid? By making sure all adults around him are vaxxed

So when you hear we have a pandemic of the unvaccinated Yes that includes kids But largely only in unvaccinated communities Very few kids in highly vaccinated places are getting sick So if you want to protect unvaccinated kids Make sure everyone around them has the shot Fin

https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1422388467070382081

 
Doug B said:
75%/25% wasn't for the state -- it was for the breakdown of the Provincetown breakthroughs. Weirdly, the information is in the footnotes ... about 2/3 of the way down the annotations after the 'Acknowledgements' section. Caveat: of course, a very small sample size:

Even with the one-offs and the anecdotes and the small sample sizes ... at the moment, when you aggregate different snippets of data together, the mRNA vaccines are looking solid as a group. And it's speculatively -- speculatively, now -- looking like Moderna's bigger dose has been an advantage vs. Delta.

EDIT: Adding the part that was footnoted for clarity:

Then in the footnotes:
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Yup, agreed. Yet, if overall in the state 38%  had Moderna, and Moderna accounted for <> 38% of breakthroughs, it does seem like the Providencetown totals were super-regional, and probably more indicative of the type of vaccine made available there. Would be a statistical anomaly for Moderna to be more protective in Providencetown than other regions of Massachusetts - am I thinking about that right?

 
massraider said:
NYT: " Mayor Blasio plans to announce that NYC will require proof of vaccination for participating in indoor activities, including restaurants, gyms and performances "Policy is similar to mandates issued in France and Italy last month. believed to be the first of its kind in US"
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They clearly are trying to salvage restaurants and events.

 
BigJim® said:
Yup, agreed. Yet, if overall in the state 38%  had Moderna, and Moderna accounted for <> 38% of breakthroughs, it does seem like the Providencetown totals were super-regional, and probably more indicative of the type of vaccine made available there. Would be a statistical anomaly for Moderna to be more protective in Providencetown than other regions of Massachusetts - am I thinking about that right?
Click to expand...
Yes, you're thinking about it right in terms of breakthrough infections of any severity. If you put everything from the sniffles to fever/chills to hospitalization into the same "breakthrough bucket".

In more specific terms of breakthrough infections that require hospitalization ... Moderna gets another little bitty feather in its cap.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Playing devil's advocate for a moment, all of the early, big vaccination drives in my area featured one particular vaccine (Moderna in my case) and nobody had any choice over what vaccine they got.  You showed up, took the shot they gave you, and that was that.  

Any chance that J&J just happened to be the designated go-to vaccine for the Provincetown/MA/New England area?  That would bring the base rate fallacy back into play . . . 
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You're right to consider this kind of thing before accepting a dataset wholesale. As it happens, 7% of Massachusetts' vaccinated people received the J&J vaccine (cited in the CDC article). Unsure about Provincetown specifically.

 
Doug B said:
Yes, you're thinking about it right in terms of breakthrough infections of any severity. If you put everything from the sniffles to fever/chills to hospitalization into the same "breakthrough bucket".

In more specific terms of breakthrough infections that require hospitalization ... Moderna gets another little bitty feather in its cap.
Click to expand...
Ok, I think I was getting confused on which of the CDC numbers (including hospitalization) were subsets of/local to Providencetown (which seemed to not have Moderna recipients) and which were from the larger Massachusetts population (which did). See, this is why I went into a career field that doesn't require much math.

 
Doug B said:
Yes, you're thinking about it right in terms of breakthrough infections of any severity. If you put everything from the sniffles to fever/chills to hospitalization into the same "breakthrough bucket".

In more specific terms of breakthrough infections that require hospitalization ... Moderna gets another little bitty feather in its cap.
Click to expand...
The sample size for hospitalization is so minuscule that it doesn’t really have much predictive power.  As a math/stats guy, I would put a lot more weight on total breakthrough infections, but hey, that’s just me.

 
BigJim® said:
Ok, I think I was getting confused on which of the CDC numbers (including hospitalization) were subsets of/local to Providencetown (which seemed to not have Moderna recipients) and which were from the larger Massachusetts population (which did). See, this is why I went into a career field that doesn't require much math.
Click to expand...
For a guy who isn’t in a math field, I think you interpreted it properly.   Give yourself some credit here!

 
Alex P Keaton said:
The sample size for hospitalization is so minuscule that it doesn’t really have much predictive power.  As a math/stats guy, I would put a lot more weight on total breakthrough infections, but hey, that’s just me.
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I hear you. It's kind of an Easter egg hunt some of us are engaging in here: Find the scraps of info that make the mRNA vaccines (and especially Moderna) look better than the rest.

EDIT: Basically, we've found that we keep stumbling on such scraps over and over again in recent days, without actively looking for them.

So far, it's just speculation and confirmation bias and all that. So far.

 
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Doug B said:
I hear you. It's kind of an Easter egg hunt some of us are engaging in here: Find the scraps of info that make the mRNA vaccines (and especially Moderna) look better than the rest.

EDIT: Basically, we've found that we keep stumbling on such scraps over and over again in recent days, without actively looking for them.

So far, it's just speculation and confirmation bias and all that. So far.
Click to expand...
If we gather enough scraps, eventually they turn into a mosaic.  At least that’s my experience as an actuary / stats guy.   So far, the scraps suggest Moderna is at least slightly better than Pfizer, and both are light years better than one shot of J&J…..

 
I got my second dose at the end of April and we went to Vegas in June. Ended up with a "cold" upon returning but now of course I'm wondering if it was delta. Is there a way to test still to find out?

 
CR69 said:
I got my second dose at the end of April and we went to Vegas in June. Ended up with a "cold" upon returning but now of course I'm wondering if it was delta. Is there a way to test still to find out?
Click to expand...
I don't know if you have a regular doctor ... I would think most doctors could help with this: ask him/her if they're aware of any tracing initiatives that would be interested, given your situation, in testing your blood for specific antibodies. I'm not sure whether natural Delta antibodies are distinguishable from vaccine-generated antibodies, but they might be.

You might also have viral RNA segments still in your bloodstream which could be detected by a PCR test. Might be enough there to figure out if it was Delta or not. But you want professional advice as to whether or not this is possible give the time passed.

 
matttyl said:
I had a similar experience with my (at the time 5) now 6 year old.  Mild fever, complained of a mild headache.  Took him to pediatrician who diagnosed him with sinus infection and prescribed an antibiotic.  He felt totally fine within 12 hours of first dose.  On then way out of dr office, they asked if we would like a covid test, and we said sure.  This was a Thursday, and on Sunday I get the call that his test came back positive.  Issue was we had let him play with friends on that Saturday thinking it had only need a sinus infection and he’s now fine.  Had to call parents of those kids, which was not fun.  No one else caught it, thank goodness (it was likely after his highly contagious period).  Looking back all he had was a fever and a headache (and two very odd bed wettings which we thought we were long past), and he was better after about 2 days.  After news of test we self isolated as a family for 10 days, though my state’s contact tracer said that my wife and I (both vaxxed) would have no restrictions, just him.  
Click to expand...
That's scary. Glad everyone is OK.

One prediction I definitely got wrong at the beginning of the pandemic is that I assumed well before vaccines rolled out, there would be widespread use of rapid tests as a means of monitoring Covid status and getting out in front of potential outbreaks, similar to what the NFL and other sports leagues have done. I figured that, in addition to businesses testing employees (and maybe even customers?) we would all have a bunch of testing kits at home we could use.

For various reasons, that never happened. Even with the kits I bought yesterday, $12 a pop is way too expensive for me to use it as a weekly check-in the way I might if they cost, say, $20 for a 10-pack. Although to be fair, part of that is also that our testing infrastructure has gotten much better. In a situation where I'm not in as much of a rush, I can walk two blocks to the nearest pop-up clinic between 8-5 on any weekday, get a free swab, and have results back within 24 hours. (I can also drive 10m and get a combo antigen/PCR test). In fact, pre-vax I had a similar set up near my old office that I would take advantage of whenever a) I had reason to fear an exposure or b) I was planning to drive across the state to see my parents.

 
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Doug B said:
I don't know if you have a regular doctor ... I would think most doctors could help with this: ask him/her if they're aware of any tracing initiatives that would be interested, given your situation, in testing your blood for specific antibodies. I'm not sure whether natural Delta antibodies are distinguishable from vaccine-generated antibodies, but they might be.

You might also have viral RNA segments still in your bloodstream which could be detected by a PCR test. Might be enough there to figure out if it was Delta or not. But you want professional advice as to whether or not this is possible give the time passed.
Click to expand...


There's no way they could do that.  Whether the samples are sequenced is up to the lab. Not all labs do sequencing, and the sample rate for sequencing is really rare.  Like 1/100 + tests are sequenced in any one area.  It's expensive, and time consuming and to my knowledge they don't inform the person their PCR + was sequenced and there isn't a way to request that like a flu test.  The best way to sequence cheaply is to get sewer samples.  They just pull it out of the poop.    

 
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