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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (22 Viewers)

Nathan R. Jessep said:
For us (LA), we didn't really dip. We usually have a bigger number on Mondays because they don't report on the weekends. The following days' numbers are then a little smaller for the rest of the week once the weekend batch is caught up.
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The numbers I was using was a 7 day average of cases, but the "dip" was only one day, so I agree with your assessment and was definitely not suggesting things weren't bad there. There will definitely be places that unfortunately will reach hospitalization levels that will exceed any other time during pandemic. I have seen some encouraging hospitalization numbers out of Nevada that seem to suggest they are closing in on their peak for this wave, and was just looking for signs of hope in other places. Really sucks that healthcare workers are having to go through this again.

 
Nathan R. Jessep said:
For us (LA), we didn't really dip. We usually have a bigger number on Mondays because they don't report on the weekends. The following days' numbers are then a little smaller for the rest of the week once the weekend batch is caught up. For whatever reason, Wednesdays and/or Thursdays usually see a little uptick versus the rest of the week numbers, then Friday a little lower. Rinse and repeat the cycle almost every week. But looking at the test positivity %, it was falling daily for months, then flat for 2 weeks or so, then on 7/13 started to tick back up. It has increased daily since then, including today (I say this as I'm in the middle of updating my tracking spreadsheet). Sadly our hospitalizations hit a mark today that marks the highest number (statewide) since the pandemic began. The only positive I can come up with is that, thus far, deaths have remained less than what we saw before at this level of hospitalizations. I have no doubts that due to vaccinations, coupled with competent medical staff learning how to better care for sick patients. 
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The Colonel described it well, I will add that in a couple of the early hotspots in the Bayou State-specifically the Baton Rouge and Northshore regions--the first indications of a peak are possibly showing.  The next couple of days numbers will get us through testing over last weekend and through Mondays which are the biggest days for numbers.  It appears that July 26th was the peak day unless massive tests are still out there.  Other regions, including New Orleans, which has the greatest population, are clearly still on the way up and that will likely mean increasing raw numbers for the state for a while.  But knowing that a peak is possible in the first areas hit is somewhat reassuring.  I think my area (Southwest LA) is just getting into the worst of things for the next 10-14 days.  

I spoke to the an old friend today.  His daughter is in charge of one of the local hospital ICUs, and has been dealing with this since last March.  She lost her home in Hurricane Laura, so she is living with her parents.  He drives her to work every day at 6 am, and picks her up in the evenings anywhere from 7 to 9 pm.  This is seven days a week.  It gets worse every day.   

 
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Having both flown and been on a train recently, I couldn’t help thinking that the folks who refused to follow the masking rules properly are exactly the folks who most likely have Covid and are spreading it.

I have a really hard time having any type of respect for these folks who can’t bear to wear a mask for an hour or two. Talk about wusses.

 
Kilgore Trout said:
The numbers I was using was a 7 day average of cases, but the "dip" was only one day, so I agree with your assessment and was definitely not suggesting things weren't bad there. There will definitely be places that unfortunately will reach hospitalization levels that will exceed any other time during pandemic. I have seen some encouraging hospitalization numbers out of Nevada that seem to suggest they are closing in on their peak for this wave, and was just looking for signs of hope in other places. Really sucks that healthcare workers are having to go through this again.
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 You'll have to look for hope elsewhere. We, here, are ####ed. It makes me sick to my stomach.  The last 3 phone calls I've had with people, 2 for work and 1 for a dentist appointment, all involved the person talking about someone in their circle testing positive, with 2 being children (10 and 9). And we are about to open schools in another week or two. I want to just hide under a rock. 

 
worrierking said:
The Colonel described it well, I will add that in a couple of the early hotspots in the Bayou State-specifically the Baton Rouge and Northshore regions--the first indications of a peak are possibly showing.  The next couple of days numbers will get us through testing over last weekend and through Mondays which are the biggest days for numbers.  It appears that July 26th was the peak day unless massive tests are still out there.  Other regions, including New Orleans, which has the greatest population, are clearly still on the way up and that will likely mean increasing raw numbers for a while.  But knowing that a peak is possible in the first areas hit is somewhat reassuring.  I think my area (Southwest LA) is just getting into the worst of things for the next 10-14 days.  

I spoke to the an old friend today.  His daughter is in charge of one of the local hospital ICUs, and has been dealing with this since last March.  She lost her home in Hurricane Laura, so she is living with her parents.  He drives her to work every day at 6 am, and picks her up in the evenings anywhere from 7 to 9 pm.  This is seven days a week.  It gets worse every day.   
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 Hope it's peaked there. I know the hospitals are in dire shape already. 

I glanced at our chart of hospitalizations. Last time they reached this high level, it had been a gradual jagged line upward then the peak. This time, it's damn near straight up. I think it's not done yet. 

 
Nathan R. Jessep said:
He said unfiltered. As in just a valve/flap letting out air straight out of the wearer's lungs. At least that's what I think he meant (which is not what you were arguing for).
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N95 masks do not have a filtered valve. So yes. It is exactly what I am arguing for. 

They dont let all of the air out of the valve. In fact they let less out of the valve than other masks let out the tops and sides. 

 
Terminalxylem said:
It’s really not complicated, nor onerous.

We need a nationwide, take-a-layperson-to-work day for healthcare workers, to help everyone understand the pandemic from inside a hospital.
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They are really getting fed up with the unvaxxed

My rain of covid patients today. Only 1 is vaxxed & on high flow O2 texting. The rest, unvaxxed, - intubated, laying on their bellies, on dialysis, sedated & paralyzed. I'm sweating in a plastic PPE like took a shower in scrubs & having new face wounds. #Tired #GetVaccinated
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GroveDiesel said:
Having both flown and been on a train recently, I couldn’t help thinking that the folks who refused to follow the masking rules properly are exactly the folks who most likely have Covid and are spreading it.

I have a really hard time having any type of respect for these folks who can’t bear to wear a mask for an hour or two. Talk about wusses.
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It’s amazing.  I fly weekly and so many people won’t mask up(they take it off to eat and won’t put it back on for a while until the attendant says something) or they have it off their nose.  
 

just had someone on my team get it after a trip(he was vaxxed). Symptomatic also.  
 

on the plus side whereas i was always the only person in meetings with a mask today everyone had one on so i think people are beginning to finally take this seriously.

 
Cases seem to be topping in the really red states. This is the initial sign you need if this is to mirror the UK and India. 

 
[icon] said:
So vented masks don't let unfiltered air out? 

Airlines didn't ban vented masks for boarding? 

If we're debating two different things, that's fine and I apologizing. Multi-tasking on a call over here. I'm not debating protection for the wearer... I'm saying it's bad form to be exhaling unfiltered air during a pandemic. 
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They dont let ALL the air out unfiltered. They let a % out unfiltered. That's what the testing results demonstrated that were posted from NIOSH. 

Cloth and surgical also let out air unfiltered and they also let out air that is LESS filtered. 

So overall a valved mask still releases fewer particles. 

In simplest terms...

if an N95 lets out 20% unfiltered and 80% almost completely filtered and a cloth mask lets out 15% unfiltered and 85% filtered 50%, which one do you think is releasing the most particles?

ETA: and this is ignoring the fact that obviously somebody wearing an N95 releasing a % of unfiltered air is less likely to have covid since they wear an N95. 

 
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Is there a test that tell difference between COVID strains that don't go to the lab?  And are all sent to the lab if not?

 
Still not sure how to tell if masks are expired, just know they were purchased at different times and at least 6 months ago.

Does anyone have an Amazon link to a good mask to buy?  I searched for "kn95" and there's just so many to sift through.

Here's some I've used before from Powecom.  Back-ordered until August 15th.

I'm sure some of you could suggest better options, please do, thanks.

 
How are your kids doing with the return to school? 

My 16 year old returned to school and came home with a "bad headache" on the first day.

Day I asked my wife if he was feeling better and she tells me he did not go in. She tells me he had a meltdown and refuses to go back. I thought on it a bit before talking to him so that I could get my thoughts together. It was quite the conversation which I am to lazy to give details on. End result is he will continue with online learning. I have no idea what the right answer here is. The true answer would be to go talk to a professional to see whats up but that costs lots of money. I hope I am making the right decision but I admit it does not feel right.

I did take advantage of being able to switch insurances right now. The one I had was horrible. I am paying more but I am hoping this one will be much better. It made a point of saying it covered mental healthcare which is a big bonus to me and may provide that professional to talk us through this.

 
prosopis said:
How are your kids doing with the return to school? 

My 16 year old returned to school and came home with a "bad headache" on the first day.

Day I asked my wife if he was feeling better and she tells me he did not go in. She tells me he had a meltdown and refuses to go back. I thought on it a bit before talking to him so that I could get my thoughts together. It was quite the conversation which I am to lazy to give details on. End result is he will continue with online learning. I have no idea what the right answer here is. The true answer would be to go talk to a professional to see whats up but that costs lots of money. I hope I am making the right decision but I admit it does not feel right.

I did take advantage of being able to switch insurances right now. The one I had was horrible. I am paying more but I am hoping this one will be much better. It made a point of saying it covered mental healthcare which is a big bonus to me and may provide that professional to talk us through this.
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That's tough. The last two years have been so hard on kids. 

You don't have to go into detail if you don't want to, but what caused that reaction? Just the general stress? Specific worries about his health? Is he vaxxed?

Wishing both of you the best. Whatever you end up doing, hope the situation improves.

 
Harry Frogfish said:
Still not sure how to tell if masks are expired, just know they were purchased at different times and at least 6 months ago.

Does anyone have an Amazon link to a good mask to buy?  I searched for "kn95" and there's just so many to sift through.

Here's some I've used before from Powecom.  Back-ordered until August 15th.

I'm sure some of you could suggest better options, please do, thanks.
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It may be all you can find, and if so, do what you gotta do, but personally I would not trust a kn95. There have been plenty of fraudulent respirators in general, but definitely more reports of fraudulent kn95s than N95s.

And this is obviously anecdotal, but I have done quite a bit of respirator fit testing over the last year and I’ve rarely had someone pass the fit test using a number of different kn95 brands and models.

Out of all the N95s I’ve tested people on, the two best brands have tended to be 3M and ProGear.

And just a reminder for everyone, if you have any facial hair at all that crosses the seal of the mask, you almost might as well just use a regular face covering or surgical mask because you’re not getting N95 protection.

 
I do not normally do this type of thing, but I just sent the following email to my school district's governing board. Not that I have any delusions that it will make any difference. I guess I'm just frustrated.

Good evening,

I'm writing tonight to express my disappointment in how my child's school is responding to your latest updates on masking policy for the district. I understand this is a highly charged political issue with strong emotions and opinions on both sides.

Personally I believe it's a disgrace that politicians (Governor Ducey and the Republican controlled legislature) are playing political games with our children's health. A ban on mask mandates is beyond ridiculous. With the rapidly increasing threat of the Covid Delta variant if anything they should be doing the exact opposite and mandating as many mitigation policies as possible.

I know this puts school districts in a difficult position. Many other districts in the state have decided to stand up and do the right thing by their students and families and have enacted mask mandates against the will of the politicians, following the guidance of medical professionals. 

Our district, so far, has chosen to stay the course and not buck the system. With cases starting to show only a couple of weeks into the school year instead we are sent a reminder that you are not allowed to mandate masks, but that you highly encourage them for both faculty and staff as well as students.

I asked my child today how many kids are wearing masks and she tells me maybe 20%. Disappointing. I ask how many of her teachers are wearing masks? The answer - none. How are students supposed to take this issue seriously if none of their teachers are setting a good example?

My request tonight is to rethink your policy. Do right by your students and institute a mask mandate, at least until Delta retreats. Absent that, please strongly encourage all teachers and staff to mask up and set the example for our kids.

Thanks for reading.

 
Nathan R. Jessep said:
Agreed, GB. It baffles me how people can watch the videos making the rounds of these exhausted hospital doctors and nurses literally begging for people to just wear a mask and, if able, get the vaccine. These are the people that we trust to care for us when we or our loved ones are sick. We can't believe them now? Because of what? Politics? Religion? Social media anecdotes?? I just don't understand and it frustrates me to no end and I can't imagine how all of you guys must feel at this point. I've lost a ton of respect, and likely a few friends, over all this, and quite frankly, I don't care any more. 
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Simple...because until it hits home meaning in your house, people don't give a ####. Sure all the other reasons you mentioned play a part and influence them but it all changes when you or your wife or your dad get it and it turns into more than just the flu. Then it gets serious for the holdouts and invariably they repent albeit too late. 

Just my opinion but I've seen this attitude a lot. Few people care much outside their immediate sphere of influence these days. That's the biggest change I've seen over my 57 years on the planet. There used to be "help thy neighbor" mentality almost anywhere you went in the Us. Today? Not so much.

 
Pretty good news on the "how long does vaccination last?" front:

Vaccine maker Moderna said Thursday that protection from its coronavirus shots remained strong – 93 percent effective – six months after full vaccination.

The company also announced that it had tested three potential booster shots, which had demonstrated “robust antibody responses” and topped off immunity, bringing antibodies back to the protective levels triggered by full vaccination.

Pfizer-BioNTech made a similar announcement last week, stating that its vaccine remained 91 percent protective six months after the second dose. Both the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines are based on messenger RNA (mRNA) technology.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/08/05/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/

All the standard caveats -- these data come from the manufacturer, which has an incentive to make its product look good but not quite so good as to rule out booster shots -- apply, of course.  But still, the available data suggests that the two main vaccines deployed in the US are really effective six months after the jab.

 
parasaurolophus said:
They dont let ALL the air out unfiltered. They let a % out unfiltered. That's what the testing results demonstrated that were posted from NIOSH. 

Cloth and surgical also let out air unfiltered and they also let out air that is LESS filtered. 

So overall a valved mask still releases fewer particles. 

In simplest terms...

if an N95 lets out 20% unfiltered and 80% almost completely filtered and a cloth mask lets out 15% unfiltered and 85% filtered 50%, which one do you think is releasing the most particles?

ETA: and this is ignoring the fact that obviously somebody wearing an N95 releasing a % of unfiltered air is less likely to have covid since they wear an N95. 
Click to expand...
I'm assuming you're referring to this study. 

Your claim: "N95 Vented mask only releases 20% unfiltered"

Actual Data: "N95 vented masks ranged from 1% (valve didn't open) to 55%" variables attributed to "exhalation valve design and materials". If the valve opens and does its job it's much closer to 55%. 

Surgical masks were 2% to 17% when comparing apples to apples (fully sealed like the vented n95 is on page 8). 
 

This is a garbage study that is clearly slanted to expand mask capacity by justifying the use of vented masks (ala "masks don't help circa March 2020). But you knew that, which is why you paraphrased the study instead of linking to it and citing it directly.

Again... there is a reason airlines and many public Venues have banned them. If you're going to wear one of these, please at least patch the gaping hole in the front like they advise. 

 
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IvanKaramazov said:
Pretty good news on the "how long does vaccination last?" front:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/08/05/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/

All the standard caveats -- these data come from the manufacturer, which has an incentive to make its product look good but not quite so good as to rule out booster shots -- apply, of course.  But still, the available data suggests that the two main vaccines deployed in the US are really effective six months after the jab.
Click to expand...


So we will need a shot every 6-12 months for a few years probably.  Fine by me.  

My question, is whether they are going to alter the formula to combat Lambda this fall (and other variants out there).

 
IC FBGCav said:
Is there a test that tell difference between COVID strains that don't go to the lab?  And are all sent to the lab if not?
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I don't think so. I think that sequencing must be done at a lab. 

I spoke with the head "lab guy" (I forget his official title, so don't want to misstate that) from our local hospital, because I was following a discussion about how they knew it was Delta causing our recent spike. He explained that normally, they send off a certain amount of tests (the ones that tell you that you're positive/negative only) to the lab for sequencing. He said about a month ago, when the positive tests they were seeing started increasing at a concerning rate, that they started doubling what they normally send off to the labs. I forget the exact number, but it was something around ~80-85% came back identified as Delta. 

 
As a wealthy nation we'll be fine as far as booster availability.  I'm sure the manufacturers are all licking their lips at the potential for profit maximization.  On the other hand, much of the rest of the world ( WHO, in particular); will be crying the blues about vaccine disparities. 

It's definitely not fair, but it's the reality we face going forward.  The White House is already pushing back on the WHO for calling for a booster moratorium

 
Maggot Brain said:
As a wealthy nation we'll be fine as far as booster availability.  I'm sure the manufacturers are all licking their lips at the potential for profit maximization.  On the other hand, much of the rest of the world ( WHO, in particular); will be crying the blues about vaccine disparities. 

It's definitely not fair, but it's the reality we face going forward.  The White House is already pushing back on the WHO for calling for a booster moratorium
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The problem as I see it is... if we don't help them out, we are just increasing the likelihood that they generate and send us over another present in the form of a variant such as we are seeing with Delta. 

 
Leeroy Jenkins said:
So we will need a shot every 6-12 months for a few years probably.  Fine by me.  

My question, is whether they are going to alter the formula to combat Lambda this fall (and other variants out there).
Click to expand...
I believe one of the benefits of these mRNA vaccines is how easy it is to modify them to deal with variants. The biggest step, I’m guessing, is figuring out why certain variants are more resistant or whatever.

 
Nathan R. Jessep said:
The problem as I see it is... if we don't help them out, we are just increasing the likelihood that they generate and send us over another present in the form of a variant such as we are seeing with Delta. 
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This could well be true. An extremely depressing bit of reality we may all have to live with for the foreseeable future.  😢

 
Nathan R. Jessep said:
The problem as I see it is... if we don't help them out, we are just increasing the likelihood that they generate and send us over another present in the form of a variant such as we are seeing with Delta. 
Click to expand...
We should help, but no way should there be a moratorium on boosters.  Put on your own oxygen mask, before helping others with theirs.

 
[icon] said:
I'm assuming you're referring to this study. 

Your claim: "N95 Vented mask only releases 20% unfiltered"

Actual Data: "N95 vented masks ranged from 1% (valve didn't open) to 55%" variables attributed to "exhalation valve design and materials". If the valve opens and does its job it's much closer to 55%. 

Surgical masks were 2% to 17% when comparing apples to apples (fully sealed like the vented n95 is on page 8). 
 

This is a garbage study that is clearly slanted to expand mask capacity by justifying the use of vented masks (ala "masks don't help circa March 2020). But you knew that, which is why you paraphrased the study instead of linking to it and citing it directly.

Again... there is a reason airlines and many public Venues have banned them. If you're going to wear one of these, please at least patch the gaping hole in the front like they advise. 
Click to expand...
Could you please post a couple N95s you recommend?  I'm STILL looking.

We have been using these Powecom masks.  If you recommend another, if the fit/configuration (good coverage, comfortable) was similar, that would be great.  Thanks.

 
Leeroy Jenkins said:
What are you seeing?  Curves starting to gradually trend downward where?
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Nothing is trending down, but the pace of new cases is starting to flatten.  This is what happened in the UK before they suddenly fell off a cliff.  You hope to see the same thing here.  

 
culdeus said:
Nothing is trending down, but the pace of new cases is starting to flatten.  This is what happened in the UK before they suddenly fell off a cliff.  You hope to see the same thing here.  
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I hope you're right, but I'm not nearly as optimistic. Not with schools opening up. I don't know how the UK handled schools, masks, etc., but I think we (in the South in general) are just about to get ramped up another notch, sadly. 

 
GroveDiesel said:
I believe one of the benefits of these mRNA vaccines is how easy it is to modify them to deal with variants. The biggest step, I’m guessing, is figuring out why certain variants are more resistant or whatever.
Click to expand...
Biontech's plan is to target the entire spike protein of the Delta variant, as opposed to targeting part of the spike protein as the current formulation does. The formulation is already complete and manufactured. Trials were supposed to begin this month. The biggest step is the glacial slow pace of the FDA to approve anything and the who knows how long process of convincing them it's needed, safe and effective. 

https://investors.biontech.de/news-releases/news-release-details/pfizer-and-biontech-provide-update-booster-program-light-delta

 
Hawks64 said:
So how concerning are Lambda and Epsilon?
Click to expand...


As of right now, (as far as I've seen) Lambda is a Variant of Interest (a notch below Variant of Concern ala Delta) and Epsilon is still only on the "to be monitored" list.

https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/

ETA: Epsilon is designated on that bottom "monitored" list as "B.1.427,B.1.429." I guess it doesn't get the greek letter designation until it reaches the top lists.

 
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Hawks64 said:
So how concerning are Lambda and Epsilon?
Click to expand...
There was a story making the rounds earlier about lambda showing some ability to evade the vaccines in lab testing, but it didn't contain many details, and TBH I am taking all clickbait/panic stories with a massive grain of salt these days.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Hawks64 said:
So how concerning are Lambda and Epsilon?
Click to expand...
There was a story making the rounds earlier about lambda showing some ability to evade the vaccines in lab testing, but it didn't contain many details, and TBH I am taking all clickbait/panic stories with a massive grain of salt these days.
Click to expand...
Part of this was based on a study in Chile** of breakthrough Lambda infections in people vaccinated with the Sinovac vaccine. Sinovac was around 50% efficacy against symptoms in Phase III trials before the current variants.

Lambda is in the U.S. -- there's an identified grouping in South Florida now and it may be found elsewhere sooner or later. In the short term, Delta is likely to outcompete Lambda until Delta 'burns out'.

** not yet peer-reviewed.

 
ericttspikes said:
Biontech's plan is to target the entire spike protein of the Delta variant, as opposed to targeting part of the spike protein as the current formulation does. The formulation is already complete and manufactured. Trials were supposed to begin this month. The biggest step is the glacial slow pace of the FDA to approve anything and the who knows how long process of convincing them it's needed, safe and effective. 

https://investors.biontech.de/news-releases/news-release-details/pfizer-and-biontech-provide-update-booster-program-light-delta
Click to expand...


Do the mRNA vaccines require an entire new approval if we are just creating a different protein?  I thought it would be like the flu shot -- where it is already approved, but the target is just altered.

 
So an idea that popped into my head...

Who here has seen the TV show The Last Ship?

Spoilers ahead....

The plot involves a virus that wipes out the majority of mankind. A final solution takes place where the cure, a vaccine, is developed that mimics the behavior of the virus itself. That is, those who have been exposed to the cure can spread it like a virus spreads. Just think what a great delivery device that could be. Obviously you run into ethical dilemmas surrounding exposing people to a medicine they had no decision making ability with. I wonder if it's technically possible though?

 
cap'n grunge said:
So an idea that popped into my head...

Who here has seen the TV show The Last Ship?

Spoilers ahead....

The plot involves a virus that wipes out the majority of mankind. A final solution takes place where the cure, a vaccine, is developed that mimics the behavior of the virus itself. That is, those who have been exposed to the cure can spread it like a virus spreads. Just think what a great delivery device that could be. Obviously you run into ethical dilemmas surrounding exposing people to a medicine they had no decision making ability with. I wonder if it's technically possible though?
Click to expand...


You mean a vaccine that is "contagious"?  I think that is how WWIII with biological weapons starts.  Pass!   :)

 
IvanKaramazov said:
There was a story making the rounds earlier about lambda showing some ability to evade the vaccines in lab testing, but it didn't contain many details, and TBH I am taking all clickbait/panic stories with a massive grain of salt these days.
Click to expand...
Exactly why I asked in here.

 
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