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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (12 Viewers)

Wife and I just rapid tested and both were negative. 

My dad just called and said he's coming.  Not sure what changed his mind.  I'm emotional about this thing right now... thankfully they have to drive 2 hours to get here. 
It’s probably no consolation, but technically a vaccinated person isn’t required to quarantine post exposure, unless they develop symptoms (current CDC guidelines, which didn’t change with delta…who knows if they should have) . Your exposure was barely over 15 minutes, mitigated by masks and vaccination. I don’t know the community prevalence of covid in your area, or the rapid test you used, but even if it’s pushing 10%, your likelihood of a false negative test is less than 5%. And the kid’s confirmatory test being positive is by no means guaranteed.

You’re basically assuming a lot of low probability events occurred/will occur for your dad to get sick. The two hour drive is likely a higher risk, tbh.

The only thing that gives me pause is the rituxan, but you guys can keep your distance and wear masks until you know all the test results, if you’re still concerned.

 
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To clarify:

When you say "shed" are you referring to a vaccinated person being able to contract the virus naturally, and then shed the virus that virus and spread infection? 

OR

Are you saying that when someone is vaccinated, that they are shedding virus based on the body's response to the vaccine, and infecting people, WITHOUT having contracted the virus itself?
I am saying when someone who has been vaccinated will still shed the virus once they get covid.  After that they have vax and NI.  Then they won't shed.

 
Africa has 6% vaccinated and has the Lowest covid numbers by far anywhere.  I think there are many factors why but you tell me.

 
Thanksgiving plans just changed in 1 phone call. 16-year-old granddaughter woke up sick with cough, fever, swollen lymph nodes. So we're switching from 9 of us indoors to 8 of us outdoors. Not sure how we'll transport all the food, some might get left behind, but we're still getting together after not being able to last year. It will be a cluster #### but probably one we'll enjoy and remember.

Some real coflicting strong emotions to deal with --- self-preservation vs. desire to be with family. This is the best plan my son and I could come up with.
Expand  
Seems like a smart plan.  Hope she is ok and everyone else stays healthy.
Thank you. The outdoor Thanksgiving worked out pretty well at a park pavilion in 50 degree weather. And the last I heard late today she's feeling better.

I really ####### miss getting together with my family. And at the same time my wife and I are close to 70 so I'm also not about to put us at unnecessary risk. Quite the conflict there, and I imagine it'll continue that way for us and many other people.   

 
What do you mean by "shed"?
Give off the virus after contacting it.
Thank you. When you say "shedding" you mean "spreading the virus to others".

There are complete nutballs who belive that vaccinated people can "shed" the vaccine itself and cause medical problems in others, and they also call it "shedding".

That is why I've asked you about what you mean by shedding so many times. You mean "spreading", not what the complete nutballs mean.

 
https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2512

Same jist.  I think this is mostly because how they live, in less concentration and they had the worst viruses in the world already.
It’s similar to the mostly rural states in the US - they can keep the numbers down but when it gets into a town or village, it will rip it apart. In some remote nations there isn’t the cross over between rural and urban. In the US we have holiday gatherings where kids come back from college and other family members get together. I’d expect the rural, lower-vaxxed areas to get hit hard soon.

 
World, meet the  "Nu" variant 

A new "highly mutated" pending "Variant of interest" out of Africa/Botswana that is ripping through schools with a host of mutations... 30 alone to spike protein which may (or may not) suck, and possible T cell evasion (which would likely suck).

Of particular concern is POSSIBLE strong competition vs Delta. Too early to tell though. 

Quotes: 

The mutation profile gives us concern, but now we need to do the work to understand the significance of this variant and what it means for the response to the pandemic.

...

"Researchers spotted B.1.1.529 in genome-sequencing data from Botswana. The variant stood out because it contains more than 30 changes to the spike protein — the SARS-CoV-2 protein that recognizes host cells and is the main target of the body’s immune responses. Many of the changes have been found in variants such as Delta and Alpha and are linked to heightened infectivity and the ability to evade infection-blocking antibodies.

But the variant’s apparent sharp rise in South Africa’s Gauteng province — home to Johannesburg — is also setting off alarm bells. Cases increased rapidly in the province in November, particularly in schools and among young people, according to Lessells. Genome sequencing and other genetic analysis from de Oliveria’s team found that the B.1.1.529 variant was responsible for all of 77 of the virus samples they analysed from Gauteng, collected between 12 and 20 November. Analysis of hundreds more samples are in the works.

The variant harbours a spike mutation that allows it to be detected by genotyping tests that deliver results much more rapidly than genome sequencing, Lessells said. Preliminary evidence from these tests suggest that B.1.1.529 is spreading much wider than Gauteng. “It gives us concern that this variant may already be circulating quite widely in the country,” Lessells said." 

...

"The variant harbours a high number of mutations in regions of the spike protein that antibodies recognize, potentially dampening their potency. “Many mutations we know are problematic, but many more look like they are likely contributing to further evasion,” says Moore. There are even hints from computer modelling that B.1.1.529 could dodge immunity conferred by another component of the immune system called T cells, says Moore. Her team hopes to have its first results in two weeks."

story:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03552-w

discussion: 
https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/r25925/heavily_mutated_coronavirus_variant_puts/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

 
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It’s similar to the mostly rural states in the US - they can keep the numbers down but when it gets into a town or village, it will rip it apart. In some remote nations there isn’t the cross over between rural and urban. In the US we have holiday gatherings where kids come back from college and other family members get together. I’d expect the rural, lower-vaxxed areas to get hit hard soon.
Svalbard has covid....

 
World, meet the  "Nu" variant 

A new "highly mutated" pending "Variant of interest" out of Africa/Botswana that is ripping through schools with a host of mutations... 30 alone to spike protein which may (or may not) suck, and possible T cell evasion (which would likely suck).

Of particular concern is POSSIBLE strong competition vs Delta. Too early to tell though. 

Quotes: 

The mutation profile gives us concern, but now we need to do the work to understand the significance of this variant and what it means for the response to the pandemic.

...

"Researchers spotted B.1.1.529 in genome-sequencing data from Botswana. The variant stood out because it contains more than 30 changes to the spike protein — the SARS-CoV-2 protein that recognizes host cells and is the main target of the body’s immune responses. Many of the changes have been found in variants such as Delta and Alpha and are linked to heightened infectivity and the ability to evade infection-blocking antibodies.

But the variant’s apparent sharp rise in South Africa’s Gauteng province — home to Johannesburg — is also setting off alarm bells. Cases increased rapidly in the province in November, particularly in schools and among young people, according to Lessells. Genome sequencing and other genetic analysis from de Oliveria’s team found that the B.1.1.529 variant was responsible for all of 77 of the virus samples they analysed from Gauteng, collected between 12 and 20 November. Analysis of hundreds more samples are in the works.

The variant harbours a spike mutation that allows it to be detected by genotyping tests that deliver results much more rapidly than genome sequencing, Lessells said. Preliminary evidence from these tests suggest that B.1.1.529 is spreading much wider than Gauteng. “It gives us concern that this variant may already be circulating quite widely in the country,” Lessells said." 

...

"The variant harbours a high number of mutations in regions of the spike protein that antibodies recognize, potentially dampening their potency. “Many mutations we know are problematic, but many more look like they are likely contributing to further evasion,” says Moore. There are even hints from computer modelling that B.1.1.529 could dodge immunity conferred by another component of the immune system called T cells, says Moore. Her team hopes to have its first results in two weeks."

story:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03552-w

discussion: 
https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/r25925/heavily_mutated_coronavirus_variant_puts/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Okay, you know Natural Immunity works against variants?  Our bodies figured this stuff out long ago.  We adjust.

 
World, meet the  "Nu" variant 

A new "highly mutated" pending "Variant of interest" out of Africa/Botswana that is ripping through schools with a host of mutations... 30 alone to spike protein which may (or may not) suck, and possible T cell evasion (which would likely suck).

Of particular concern is POSSIBLE strong competition vs Delta. Too early to tell though. 

Quotes: 

The mutation profile gives us concern, but now we need to do the work to understand the significance of this variant and what it means for the response to the pandemic.

...

"Researchers spotted B.1.1.529 in genome-sequencing data from Botswana. The variant stood out because it contains more than 30 changes to the spike protein — the SARS-CoV-2 protein that recognizes host cells and is the main target of the body’s immune responses. Many of the changes have been found in variants such as Delta and Alpha and are linked to heightened infectivity and the ability to evade infection-blocking antibodies.

But the variant’s apparent sharp rise in South Africa’s Gauteng province — home to Johannesburg — is also setting off alarm bells. Cases increased rapidly in the province in November, particularly in schools and among young people, according to Lessells. Genome sequencing and other genetic analysis from de Oliveria’s team found that the B.1.1.529 variant was responsible for all of 77 of the virus samples they analysed from Gauteng, collected between 12 and 20 November. Analysis of hundreds more samples are in the works.

The variant harbours a spike mutation that allows it to be detected by genotyping tests that deliver results much more rapidly than genome sequencing, Lessells said. Preliminary evidence from these tests suggest that B.1.1.529 is spreading much wider than Gauteng. “It gives us concern that this variant may already be circulating quite widely in the country,” Lessells said." 

...

"The variant harbours a high number of mutations in regions of the spike protein that antibodies recognize, potentially dampening their potency. “Many mutations we know are problematic, but many more look like they are likely contributing to further evasion,” says Moore. There are even hints from computer modelling that B.1.1.529 could dodge immunity conferred by another component of the immune system called T cells, says Moore. Her team hopes to have its first results in two weeks."

story:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03552-w

discussion: 
https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/r25925/heavily_mutated_coronavirus_variant_puts/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Scary stuff no doubt.

 
Okay, you know Natural Immunity works against variants?  Our bodies figured this stuff out long ago.  We adjust.
Infection-Acquired immunity isn't automatic against variants... highly dependent on level/type of mutation. 

Over time, yes. Infection-Acquired immunity will adapt to compensate. 

Assuming your infection-acquired immunity to a Delta infection automatically protects you against all strains would be incorrect as far as I understand.

Others who know more can clarify, but from my understanding there is a possibility (albeit slight) that a variant could mutate to such a degree that we would be starting at borderline ground zero WRT "herd immunity".
 

 If that were to happen, mRNA vaccines could likely be adapted quite quickly... within weeks. Manufacturing/production would take time. Unsure on FDA clearance but one would assume it would be quick given it's a tweak of an existing approved vaccine. Again, based on previous reading... please correct me if I'm wrong. 

 
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Infection-Acquired immunity isn't automatic against variants... highly dependent on level/type of mutation. 

Over time, yes. Infection-Acquired immunity will adapt to compensate. 

Assuming your infection-acquired immunity to a Delta infection automatically protects you against all strains would be incorrect as far as I understand.

Others who know more can clarify, but from my understanding there is a possibility (albeit slight) that a variant could mutate to such a degree that we would be starting at borderline ground zero WRT "herd immunity".
 

 If that were to happen, mRNA vaccines could likely be adapted quite quickly... within weeks. Again, based on previous reading... please correct me if I'm wrong. 
Thanks for posting that from wherever Matt.

 
Infection-Acquired immunity isn't automatic against variants... highly dependent on level/type of mutation. 

Over time, yes. Infection-Acquired immunity will adapt to compensate. 

Assuming your infection-acquired immunity to a Delta infection automatically protects you against all strains would be incorrect as far as I understand.

Others who know more can clarify, but from my understanding there is a possibility (albeit slight) that a variant could mutate to such a degree that we would be starting at borderline ground zero WRT "herd immunity".
 

 If that were to happen, mRNA vaccines could likely be adapted quite quickly... within weeks. Manufacturing/production would take time. Unsure on FDA clearance but one would assume it would be quick given it's a tweak of an existing approved vaccine. Again, based on previous reading... please correct me if I'm wrong. 
I doubt you still have my # but if so, feel free to call. At the cabin.

 
Those were my words not pulled from anywhere. Granted I'm about 20 beers and 15mg of THC into my evening at the in-laws in Kentucky, so my logic might get exposed as dumb AF  by the morning. :lol:  
You tied the knot?  Sry bro frigging congrats!

 
South African Sport shutdown: 

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-africa-sport-set-shutdown-over-new-coronavirus-variant-2021-11-26/

India tightening testing for tourists due to Nu:

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-tighten-covid-19-testing-tourists-amid-new-variant-concerns-2021-11-26/
 

Japan tightening border restrictions for S Africa and others: 

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/japan-tighten-border-controls-s-africa-others-new-virus-variant-jiji-2021-11-26/

UK reportedly blacklists 6 African nations. 
 

Detected in Hong Kong. Horse may be out of the barn (not that it wouldn't be soon anyway). 

Testing on mutations will soon dictate where this lands on the "Oh ####" scale. 

 
This Tweet from the "go to" local source in this is spooky:

This new variant, B.1.1.529 seems to spread very quick! In less than 2 weeks now dominates all infections following a devastating Delta wave in South Africa (Blue new variant, now at 75% of last genomes and soon to reach 100%)

https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1463911571176968194?s=20

To see Nu, look close at the very thin near vertical blue line to the right of the chart. It appears this is SMOKING Delta.... fingers crossed no more deadly / transmissible (not sure how it could be).  The insanely fast rise in competition vs delta COULD be due to many factors (escape, transmissibility, etc) 

 
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Okay, seriously question.  How does this all stop, because with 100% of the world vaxx it wouldn't stop.
Two possibilities:

1. We get lucky and it mutates to a strain that becomes dominant but no longer harmful.

2. We get much better at treating and preventing. High community immunity is key but likely just a component of an overall strategy that uses frequent rapid testing and aggressive early treatment that weakens the effects of outbreaks.

 
Okay, seriously question.  How does this all stop, because with 100% of the world vaxx it wouldn't stop.
The thing to remember is we are chasing a cure for a super version of the common cold. The world may be stuck with this family of coronavirus forever. It is in wild animal populations.

The black plague from medieval Europe is still around.

 
Okay, seriously question.  How does this all stop, because with 100% of the world vaxx it wouldn't stop.
IMO, a treatment/drug that turns it into a 2-3 day moderate "flu/cold" is the most likely near term "win" for us. Once that happens, we can treat it as such, which means life is pretty much lived normally. 

The long term win is a universal vaccine over COVID and/or Coronaviruses. The former being far more likely. They have already found "clues" as to how this could happen... but that vaccine could also be somewhat "experimental" in nature meaning we'd likely have similar resistance as with this vaccine. 

The odds of this "burning out" and humanity conquering it via evolution are unlikely in any near term scenario. Most pandemics of this type involved medical intervention to stop/treat...

I don't think we can just ride this out "naturally".... which is why we have what may be the largest global mobilization of scientists and AI in human history working around the clock on this. It's on them. 

Regarding 100% vaxx it wouldn't stop... possibly, possibly not. Mutation is a numbers game. If a virus replicates a million times in a normal infection (made up number), and 100,000,000 people get the disease... that's a lot of chances of bad juju. Lower that number of people to 100,000 and you've reduced the risk of bad juju by orders of magnitude. Now let's pretend vaccines (or infection acquired immunity) stops an infection at 1000 replications.... that's ANOTHER reduction by orders of magnitude.

If you do both this is a "100,000,000 chances" issue vs a "100,000,000,000,000 chances" issue.... if that makes any sense. Again, all made up numbers for explanation purposes only.

Right now part of the problem is we are trying to hit a relatively fast moving target. Once we slow down (or stop) that movement, the target becomes much easier to hit. 

.... again, from my best knowledge. I could be way off. 

 
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Infection-Acquired immunity isn't automatic against variants... highly dependent on level/type of mutation. 

Over time, yes. Infection-Acquired immunity will adapt to compensate. 

Assuming your infection-acquired immunity to a Delta infection automatically protects you against all strains would be incorrect as far as I understand.

Others who know more can clarify, but from my understanding there is a possibility (albeit slight) that a variant could mutate to such a degree that we would be starting at borderline ground zero WRT "herd immunity".
 

 If that were to happen, mRNA vaccines could likely be adapted quite quickly... within weeks. Manufacturing/production would take time. Unsure on FDA clearance but one would assume it would be quick given it's a tweak of an existing approved vaccine. Again, based on previous reading... please correct me if I'm wrong. 
What events over the past 18 months have given you the idea that the FDA would respond quickly or nimbly if we needed a tweaked vaccine?

 
If I posted a summary you would ask for links.
1) Well, you asked for our theories — not for us to post links of other people’s theories

2) A link paired with a summary of what is in the link is fairly common practice. I’m still not sure exactly what your “theory” is since the link(s) contained a ton of different material.

 
The chief medical adviser to the UK Health and Security Agency has warned that a newly identified Covid-19 variant in southern Africa is the “most worrying we’ve seen”, with transmission levels not recorded since the beginning of the pandemic.

Dr Susan Hopkins said the R value, or effective reproduction number, of the B.1.1.529 variant in Gauteng in South Africa, where it was first found, was now 2. For an R of anything above 1, an epidemic will grow exponentially. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/26/b11529-covid-variant-most-worrying-weve-seen-says-top-uk-medical-adviser 

Well, this all seems.... Awful. 

 
The thing to remember is we are chasing a cure for a super version of the common cold.


And it's spread through breathing.    

I guess I always knew that the stuff I typically think of as a cold or even the flu were spread via droplet and less likely to have a super high spread rate relative to things that spread by breathing like measles or Covid19.  It sure makes you contemplate what the possible end game can be.  I think for a lot of us we thought it was get your vax and at least its basically over for you.  Bummer that might not be the case.  One thing that seems pointless at this point is trying to enforce stricter lock downs, especially when you realize as Dez posted above,  it's in animals too.  People are going to fight it hard, and seriously, what would be the point if you just end up getting it from Bambi or your dog or whatever? 

As Ivan has mentioned we're going to need to burn down the FDA/CDC so we can actually get tailored vaccines and anti-virals and other treatments as they are developed and proven safe and effective because we don't really have a realistic path to keeping this thing from burning through - again and again and again if it just keep mutating.  (It's spread through breathing!) We were told this could be the case right from the start, I was hoping that was just worst case scenario stuff.  If that really is what's going on we're going have to find a way to deal with it.

 
World, meet the  "Nu" variant 

A new "highly mutated" pending "Variant of interest" out of Africa/Botswana that is ripping through schools with a host of mutations... 30 alone to spike protein which may (or may not) suck, and possible T cell evasion (which would likely suck).

Of particular concern is POSSIBLE strong competition vs Delta. Too early to tell though. 

Quotes: 

The mutation profile gives us concern, but now we need to do the work to understand the significance of this variant and what it means for the response to the pandemic.

...

"Researchers spotted B.1.1.529 in genome-sequencing data from Botswana. The variant stood out because it contains more than 30 changes to the spike protein — the SARS-CoV-2 protein that recognizes host cells and is the main target of the body’s immune responses. Many of the changes have been found in variants such as Delta and Alpha and are linked to heightened infectivity and the ability to evade infection-blocking antibodies.

But the variant’s apparent sharp rise in South Africa’s Gauteng province — home to Johannesburg — is also setting off alarm bells. Cases increased rapidly in the province in November, particularly in schools and among young people, according to Lessells. Genome sequencing and other genetic analysis from de Oliveria’s team found that the B.1.1.529 variant was responsible for all of 77 of the virus samples they analysed from Gauteng, collected between 12 and 20 November. Analysis of hundreds more samples are in the works.

The variant harbours a spike mutation that allows it to be detected by genotyping tests that deliver results much more rapidly than genome sequencing, Lessells said. Preliminary evidence from these tests suggest that B.1.1.529 is spreading much wider than Gauteng. “It gives us concern that this variant may already be circulating quite widely in the country,” Lessells said." 

...

"The variant harbours a high number of mutations in regions of the spike protein that antibodies recognize, potentially dampening their potency. “Many mutations we know are problematic, but many more look like they are likely contributing to further evasion,” says Moore. There are even hints from computer modelling that B.1.1.529 could dodge immunity conferred by another component of the immune system called T cells, says Moore. Her team hopes to have its first results in two weeks."

story:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03552-w

discussion: 
https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/r25925/heavily_mutated_coronavirus_variant_puts/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Was going to post this but you beat me to it. Just in time for the holidays!

https://twitter.com/tuliodna/status/1463911554538160130?s=12

 
Willy said:
As Ivan has mentioned we're going to need to burn down the FDA/CDC so we can actually get tailored vaccines and anti-virals and other treatments as they are developed and proven safe and effective
Turing over COVID detection and treatment to PR departments and internet conspiracists seems like a lousy idea.

 
Turing over COVID detection and treatment to PR departments and internet conspiracists seems like a lousy idea.


Right, and is that the only other option?  Other countries have their regulatory agencies approving treatments fast than ours. Maybe we can find a way to be more responsive without turning it over to kooks?

 

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