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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (19 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
My understanding is that it's just a couple of weeks too early to make any serious statements about omicron's virulence. Would be great if it's mild, so let's keep our fingers crossed, but for now we just need to wait and see.
By the same logic, there's also no reason (yet) to freak out. Lots of people made that mistake with delta, which was no big deal for vaccinated people.
I'm going to simply sit tight for now.
Wildcat
Footballguy
Not sure that makes sense. From what I read, it takes about 90-100 days for them to build a new variant vaccine and they likely will offer just the a variant specific vaccine for those that have the current booster.
Sand
Footballguy
There are no guarantees, but about 1000 pages back (I ain't searchin', neither!) I linked a study that showed the course of these infections tends toward less virulent over time as that works in favor of natural selection. Certainly no guarantees and no telling yet if Omicron fits that bill.
gianmarco
Footballguy
This is not to pick on you specifically, but this goes along with "I did my own research", IMO. With boosters now being made available to all because of continued and emerging evidence that they offer more/better protection, why do you feel like you have enough evidence to make that kind of judgment?
This is not to say you have to get it. You are obviously free to choose what you do and don't do. Perhaps you had a discussion with your doctor and were told not to.
But, IMO, it's this kind of thinking (I'm qualified to decide if/when the right time to get the vaccine or booster or any specific medical decision) that continues to put us in the situation we are in. I really wish we, in general, stop picking and choosing when to follow medical advice, especially when it pertains to how it affects the community at large.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I agree that folks should get boosted, but our health officials and media people did an especially poor job explaining boosters to the casual public at large. I can't honestly blame people for being confused about boosters, or on the fence about them.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Yep, I agree.
Which is why I wish people would stop getting their medical advice from TV, news, radio internet, etc.
If confused or in doubt or unsure what to do, consult your doctor. Not politicians or celebrities or news anchors.
jamny
Footballguy
I've had the virus and had 2 doses of Pfizer. I feel, and have read doctors that agree, that I have as much immunity, if not more, as someone who never got Covid and has been vaccinated. Had I never contracted Covid, I probably would have gotten the booster, but as it is I feel comfortable enough to wait. I'm due for another blood test in a month and will check antibodies at the same time again.
Maelstrom
Footballguy
This is a common theory, originally started back in the 19th century. There has been quite a bit of study on it, and it's not quite so cut/dry as a "rule". Viruses do tend to increase in virulence at first because that also tends to allow them to spread more rapidly. But whether the virus evolves away from that, or the human immune system develops more and better protections over time, causing it to spread less rapidly, is really unknown (from what I've read, I'm no expert by any means). But what I take from this is we probably shouldn't make plans based on the assumption that virulence will go down over time.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
About 500 pages ago I questioned that theory (the so-called law of declining virulence), as it doesn’t hold true for a bunch of viruses/infections. By no means is evolution to a less deadly strain a foregone conclusion. Heck, delta is thought to be slightly more virulent than original recipe SARS-CoV-2.Sand said:
It’s too soon to say much about omicron, but ultimately immunity, gained through some combination of vaccination and recovery from infection, plus effective therapeutics are the best bet for a return to normalcy. Opinion piece on the subject
DJackson10
Footballguy
Alex P Keaton said:
I felt better today so I went in only because if I have to I can call out tomorrow if I wasn't. I think it was just a head cold
DJackson10
Footballguy
jobarules said:
I didn't realize I was sick till later. And I'm willing to bet half my store is going in sick because of being over worked, not much help, #### pay and having to work or may not able to feed their families, etc. Retail sucks but honestly people would be shocked at some of the stuff I see daily people don't know about.
I've lost count how many coworkers who handle food or carts don't wash their hands after using the bathroom.
DJackson10
Footballguy
song said:
I kind of have one. For example if you told me someone in your family had died I probably wouldn't look like I'm showing empathy.
I have a co worker right now who lost their step father and was diagnosed with cancer. If he died I'd be pretty messed up but if something happened to the guy I don't know much in Deli I might not feel much.
Also I'm more of the type of person that if something bad happens to you like dying because you didn't get vaccinated I don't feel sorry for you unless you have an absolute legit reason why you didn't get vaccinated. Its why I show zero empathy for my old book keeper who lost her husband. Both were in hospital for Covid and her husband died. Both Anti Mask, anti Vaccinations, anti shut downs etc etc. They did it to themselves. I won't feel sorry for that. Just shake my head and wonder why people are being so stupid because they want to try and prove an outdated opinion.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Your Local Epidemiologist with a good posting on Omicron.
Get vaccinated.
Get vaccinated.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Finally found something I've been looking for. This report is from the Texas DHS, and Table 6 shows relative risk of death by age group by vax status. IOW it accounts for overall rates of death from COVID by both vax status AND age.
Given that there's no reason the relative rates should bounce around between 30-39, 40-49, 50-64 and 65-74 (the relative risk for unvaxxed is shows as 48x, 63x, 45x and 57x that of vaxxed, respectively), I averaged them.
Weighting those four categories equally gives you an overall 53.16x chance of death if you're unvaccinated vs fully vaxxed, after controlling for age. AKA the vaccine reduces your overall chance of death by a bit over 98%.
Presumably some of that is also that vaxxed people are still being wiser about exposure to COVID in the first place, so if you're vaxxed and taking absolutely no other precautions your risk likely goes up a bit. But still... that's a lot of protection.
Given that there's no reason the relative rates should bounce around between 30-39, 40-49, 50-64 and 65-74 (the relative risk for unvaxxed is shows as 48x, 63x, 45x and 57x that of vaxxed, respectively), I averaged them.
Weighting those four categories equally gives you an overall 53.16x chance of death if you're unvaccinated vs fully vaxxed, after controlling for age. AKA the vaccine reduces your overall chance of death by a bit over 98%.
Presumably some of that is also that vaxxed people are still being wiser about exposure to COVID in the first place, so if you're vaxxed and taking absolutely no other precautions your risk likely goes up a bit. But still... that's a lot of protection.
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skol asylum
Footballguy
fatness
Footballguy
Informative article about the South African origin of omicron.
If, and this is a huge IF, omicron affects are mainly treatable at home, we will be dodging a bullet.
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fatness
Footballguy
We're also lucky that we've gotten such an early warning about the omicron variant, compared to how much warning we got of the original (in the US) alpha variant and the later delta variant.
https://www.theinsight.org/p/omicron-edition-open-thread-112821
https://www.theinsight.org/p/omicron-edition-open-thread-112821
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Apparently 5 of the 8 countries affected by the new travel ban have asked Pfizer to slow down their vaccine deliveries because they are nor using their current supply.
jamny
Footballguy
I wish there was a number we could have when checking antibodies to see where we are. Some level of antibodies that shows our immunity level.
Or is there?
fatness
Footballguy
There's no certainty yet due to such a limited time to study. The only article I've found in the last 2 months about this is this one: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/18/health/if-youve-had-covid-do-you-need-the-vaccine.html?smid=em-share
It's a long article worth reading and it doesn't have any clear "good/not good"numbers.
DJackson10
Footballguy
Japan just announced all boarders are shut to foreigners
kylechoffman
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
beer 30
Footballguy
Everything I’ve seen points to more rapid infection but mild symptoms. Doesn’t mean it still won’t kill you but hopeful this won’t be a worse version of an already terrible virus.
Let’s be honest, we’ve had fair warning about COVID from the beginning, we just chose to ignore it.
fatness
Footballguy
I'm pretty sure that much more time elapsed between the original COVID virus developed in China and the time we knew what it was and where it was spreading. Omicron variant was first noticed less than 2 weeks ago.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
And apparently is already the dominant strain in South Africa. Took it two weeks to overtake Delta, whereas Delta took two months to become the top strain there.
The Commish
Footballguy
When one gets a PCR test, if positive, does it tell you which variant you have?
belljr
Footballguy
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Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
I think most states, it has to be sent to a lab for analyzing in order to identify which strain you have.
Although, I did read a blurb somewhere that Omicron, similar to one of the early strains (Alpha, IIRC) is identifiable in PCR test due to one of the areas it "lights up" on the test that other strains don't activate. That's one way scientists caught Omicron outbreak fairly early on compared to other strains. I don't know how accurate that is. I'll try to remember where I read that and post the link.
fatness
Footballguy
Update: granddaughter has lost her sense of taste and smell and has gotten a COVID test. I hope it's negative.
edited to add: Don't want to derail the topic, just to provide an update.
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fatness
Footballguy
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Doug B
Footballguy
From what I've seen ... losing taste/smell is pretty much a positive COVID test in and of itself.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
If ever there was a horses/zebras thing, this is surely it. I know there are other esoteric diseases that cause people to lose their sense of taste and smell, but realistically if you experience this particular symptom, there is probably like a 99.9% chance that it's covid.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Good chart here from the CDC, summarizing another thing I've been wondering about.
They estimate that only about 25% of COVID cases have been reported. As of the end of Sept that suggested 146MM cases in the US. 166MM would be 50% of the country -- and I think we're probably somewhere close to that total now.
They also estimate that about 1/4 COVID deaths are unreported. Which would put us right around 1.066MM in total (vs 800k officially reported).
Here's the good news...
If 50% of the country has had COVID and we've had 1MM deaths, the overall rate of COVID-positive fatalities is around 0.64% (1.07MM/166MM -- which is suprisingly close to what (IMO) was the best estimate in March or April of last year, .68%).
And if you're under 65 years old, your rate is likely lower than that (deaths among 50-65 year olds index at 89% of the national average. It obviously gets a lot better as you get younger from there).
The vaccine + booster provide something like 80%-90% protection vs infection and a risk- adjusted estimate of 50% protection from the worst outcomes if you DO get infected.
So... putting all that together...
If you're otherwise healthy (not diabetic, not immunocompromised, etc), vaxxed and boosted, and 50-65, your (i.e. my) math probably looks something like...
A 10%-20% chance of a breakthrough infection and a 0.285% (.64% * 89% * 50%) chance of dying if you are infected. Very roughly, a 1/1,750 to 1/3,500 chance of dying of COVID as a true baseline.
But to the degree you reduce your chances of getting COVID through other interventions like masking in public places, those odds get even better. Say 1/2,500 to 1/5,000. (Maybe those odds above are equal to the lifetime chances of being in a pedestrian accident with a car, but, hey, I look both ways before I cross the street too.)
And a pill may soon cut those risks even more. 50% on top of everything above would push the overall odds into the 1/5,000 to 1/10,000 range. And much much better than that if you're young.
(All directional, but probably not wrong by orders of magnitude or anything. It does assume that everyone not vaxxed would eventually get COVID though.)
They estimate that only about 25% of COVID cases have been reported. As of the end of Sept that suggested 146MM cases in the US. 166MM would be 50% of the country -- and I think we're probably somewhere close to that total now.
They also estimate that about 1/4 COVID deaths are unreported. Which would put us right around 1.066MM in total (vs 800k officially reported).
Here's the good news...
If 50% of the country has had COVID and we've had 1MM deaths, the overall rate of COVID-positive fatalities is around 0.64% (1.07MM/166MM -- which is suprisingly close to what (IMO) was the best estimate in March or April of last year, .68%).
And if you're under 65 years old, your rate is likely lower than that (deaths among 50-65 year olds index at 89% of the national average. It obviously gets a lot better as you get younger from there).
The vaccine + booster provide something like 80%-90% protection vs infection and a risk- adjusted estimate of 50% protection from the worst outcomes if you DO get infected.
So... putting all that together...
If you're otherwise healthy (not diabetic, not immunocompromised, etc), vaxxed and boosted, and 50-65, your (i.e. my) math probably looks something like...
A 10%-20% chance of a breakthrough infection and a 0.285% (.64% * 89% * 50%) chance of dying if you are infected. Very roughly, a 1/1,750 to 1/3,500 chance of dying of COVID as a true baseline.
But to the degree you reduce your chances of getting COVID through other interventions like masking in public places, those odds get even better. Say 1/2,500 to 1/5,000. (Maybe those odds above are equal to the lifetime chances of being in a pedestrian accident with a car, but, hey, I look both ways before I cross the street too.)
And a pill may soon cut those risks even more. 50% on top of everything above would push the overall odds into the 1/5,000 to 1/10,000 range. And much much better than that if you're young.
(All directional, but probably not wrong by orders of magnitude or anything. It does assume that everyone not vaxxed would eventually get COVID though.)
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The Z Machine
Footballguy
kylechoffman
Footballguy
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jamny
Footballguy
Thanks.
(not directed at you specifically) So what test do the FDA and CDC use to determine that immunity is waning and there is a need for boosters? They must have some specific antibody stat that they use to determine a threshold.
jamny
Footballguy
As for my blood test. Some say it isn't useful for a determination but I've tested positive twice for antibodies. If, on my next test, I show negative, it would get me to go for a booster. Seems like a reasonable way to make a decision given that it is the only way for the public to make a determination at this time.
Dragons
Delusions of Grandeur
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Great post (assuming your math is correct
)If we do assume that then we are looking at Covid being about 3-5x more deadly than the flu. (Don't @ me I'm not a #justaflubro)
I think if any of the pills work out then we (those of us who are vaccinated and maybe a good portion of unvaccinated) can truly treat this like the Flu. Nothing you want to get, could be deadly, but take the same precautions you did against the flu. Stay home when sick, try to keep yourself in good shape, all the common sense stuff but maybe no other measures would be necessary at that point. Do you agree?
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Great post (assuming your math is correct
If we do assume that then we are looking at Covid being about 3-5x more deadly than the flu. (Don't @ me I'm not a #justaflubro)
I think if any of the pills work out then we (those of us who are vaccinated and maybe a good portion of unvaccinated) can truly treat this like the Flu. Nothing you want to get, could be deadly, but take the same precautions you did against the flu. Stay home when sick, try to keep yourself in good shape, all the common sense stuff but maybe no other measures would be necessary at that point. Do you agree?
I think that is the end game. Probably will need a shot every 6-18 months depending on mutations. But this ends up being seasonal and less deadly as time passes.
The 1918 flu killed 50 million people when it was a pandemic. We deal with its mutations to this day.
