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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread


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Michigan reached a new record of adults hospitalized with COVID-19 on Monday with 4,181 hospitalized with confirmed cases of the virus, the most since the pandemic began. In the state, more than 80% of total hospital inpatient beds and 84% of intensive care unit beds are full, according to the state health department.

https://www.hastingstribune.com/ap/agriculture/michigan-hits-new-record-for-adult-covid-19-hospitalizations-80-of-beds-full/article_87a6731a-09f6-59f5-8370-af5589ad681b.html

When COVID's finally under control It'll be interesting to see the progression of hotspots over time. Right now the worst areas (cases per 100k over last 7 days) seem to be in Alaska and the northeast and northern central US, then angling south-southwest. It'll probably look different a month from now as cold weather advances southward.

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5 hours ago, Pip's Invitation said:

COVID is a different beast from other diseases, but in "normal" times, demonstration of 30% reduced risk for death/hospitalization from a serious disease is considered a major benefit and would likely lead to a strong endorsement for approval unless there were serious safety issues. 

Not saying I think this should be approved, as I haven't read enough about it, but just providing context. We live in weird times. 

Absolutely. Many people don’t have a clue about what is considered worthwhile in the medical world.

Judging by our response to covid, if we inundated the public with absolute/relative risk reductions for most common medical therapies, along with potential risks, I’m pretty sure a lot less people would take anything.

For example, aspirin is one our best therapeutics, and it only reduces the risk of death from a heart attack 2.4%!

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2 hours ago, Terminalxylem said:

For example, aspirin is one our best therapeutics, and it only reduces the risk of death from a heart attack 2.4%!

Indeed, to the point where it’s no longer recommended for CVD prevention for most people who haven’t already had some form of CVD, because the benefit doesn’t outweigh the bleeding risks unless you are at high risk for a CVD event. The cardiology societies arrived at this position a few years before the USPSTF did.

But the lore that aspirin is a good CVD preventative for everyone remains because once upon a time, it was one of the few options we had, and that advice emerged in an era where people did what their doctors recommended and were less likely to “do their own research.”

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1 hour ago, Pip's Invitation said:

Indeed, to the point where it’s no longer recommended for CVD prevention for most people who haven’t already had some form of CVD, because the benefit doesn’t outweigh the bleeding risks unless you are at high risk for a CVD event. The cardiology societies arrived at this position a few years before the USPSTF did.

But the lore that aspirin is a good CVD preventative for everyone remains because once upon a time, it was one of the few options we had, and that advice emerged in an era where people did what their doctors recommended and were less likely to “do their own research.”

And that little old aspirin you get over the counter is far more likely to cause significant side effects than the Covid vaccine.

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7 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

And that little old aspirin you get over the counter is far more likely to cause significant side effects than the Covid vaccine.

 

That little old aspirin is a perfect illustration of Americans mania for repurposing humble OTC meds as miracle cures.  We like easy answers.

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14 hours ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:
14 hours ago, fatness said:

Am I reading that correctly, that their sample size is 4 people?

:lol: it reads that way huh? I think it's just poorly written. And I hate when they don't include all the stats. 

It's poorly written, but it also contains almost no information. Here's another article on the report, which is about a variant that only became known on Nov. 23.

Quote

Israeli health chiefs announce first signs vaccines are effective against Omicron
Israel has four cases of new variant, with the latest two being fully vaccinated
Officials say protection high in those who got jab or booster in last six months
However, the claims were shared without any data to support the statements

This sounds more like "get an article out there, we'll back it up with something later" so far.

Edited by fatness
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11 hours ago, fatness said:

https://www.hastingstribune.com/ap/agriculture/michigan-hits-new-record-for-adult-covid-19-hospitalizations-80-of-beds-full/article_87a6731a-09f6-59f5-8370-af5589ad681b.html

When COVID's finally under control It'll be interesting to see the progression of hotspots over time. Right now the worst areas (cases per 100k over last 7 days) seem to be in Alaska and the northeast and northern central US, then angling south-southwest. It'll probably look different a month from now as cold weather advances southward.

From the article:

"About 71% of residents aged 16 and older have received first doses of a vaccine. When including children ages 5 and older, 61% have received first shots in the state."

Unfortunately, that's not good enough:

"Spectrum Health Senior Vice President Chad Tuttle said Monday the hospital system also broke its record at 438 COVID-19 inpatients, 106 of which are in the ICU.

"It's a new high for us and 91% are unvaccinated patients," Tuttle said. "We entered Monday morning well in excess of 90% occupancy, holding patients in all of our emergency departments, looking for discharges so that we can make room to admit many of those patients."

"The vast majority of COVID-19 patients are unvaccinated, according to the state. In the last 30 days of data (Oct. 14-Nov. 12), 72% of cases, 71% of hospitalizations and 75% of deaths were among individuals who were not fully vaccinated.

"Mostly critically ill, just like most of the patients admitted, are unvaccinated," Sims said. "We certainly know how to treat it better than we did at the beginning. We have new medications, but once a person gets sick, there's only so much we can do."

Michigan's vaccination rates probably would have held hospitalizations down pretty well for the original strain. Based on data from NY State hospitalizations and vaccination rates, it now seems like the tipping point for holding down hospitalizations is 80% of the total population vaccinated, with 90% among 18+. The vaccination rates are this high in several counties in downstate NY, and ICU admissions have been pretty consistently low there compared with elsewhere in the state and country, even through Delta.

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20 minutes ago, fatness said:

It's poorly written, but it also contains almost no information. Here's another article on the report, which is about a variant that only became known on Nov. 23.

This sounds more like "get an article out there, we'll back it up with something later" so far.


How the heck can they make any claims based on 4 cases especially when half are fully vaccinated? Do they think hundreds of people were exposed and these were the only people who tested positive because the vaccine works so well?

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Quick data follow up to the previous post:

Using Long Island (which is in downstate NY) as an example, there are 48 people in the ICU across 20 hospitals among a total population of 2.8 million residents.

Long Island vaccination rates are approximately 79% of the total population vaccinated with 91% of those 18+ vaccinated.

NY State Hospitalizations

NY State Vaccine Progress

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10 hours ago, Navin Johnson said:

Waiting was optional here for the booster. I did end up staying about ten minutes as they misspelled my name on my QR code which may have made flying difficult.

They required me to wait but I wonder if that’s because my first two were Pfizer and my booster was Moderna

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58 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

If Omnicron ends up being more transmissible but causes more mild symptoms, that would be about best case scenario, right?

 

Sounds right, it has to be more transmissible to out compete the existing strains.  Getting milder, less severe symptoms would be a nice break and we haven't had too many of those the last 2 years.  

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2 hours ago, Dickies said:

They required me to wait but I wonder if that’s because my first two were Pfizer and my booster was Moderna


Technically the official protocol is for everyone to wait 15 minutes after but we’ve pretty much adopted this. Wait for the first dose and optional after that. Mix and match, wait. Exceptions of course with previous reactions or with other concerns. The initial reason for the wait was to watch for allergic reaction because they had those handful of reactions that freaked people out. If you’ve received one dose already, the allergic risk is gone. The risk was pretty overblown anyway.

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Not a shock but... First case of Omicron coronavirus variant identified in the U.S.

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The Covid-19 case was identified by the California and San Francisco health departments in a person who had traveled to South Africa and returned on Nov. 22, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a release. The individual, who was fully vaccinated with the Moderna shot but had not received a booster, had mild symptoms and has since recovered, federal and local officials said. The person has been isolating since testing positive on Nov. 29. All close contacts have tested negative thus far.

 

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42 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

It doesn't sound as if that travel ban did much good.  Other than sticking it to South Africa for doing their due diligence and sharing their knowledge with the scientific community.

 

Sounds like it was too late probably.  It does seem most spread is coming from travel to these countries though.

Hopefully boosters are effective against it, and/or it is mild disease and assists in spreading immunity.

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9 hours ago, Pip's Invitation said:

Indeed, to the point where it’s no longer recommended for CVD prevention for most people who haven’t already had some form of CVD, because the benefit doesn’t outweigh the bleeding risks unless you are at high risk for a CVD event. The cardiology societies arrived at this position a few years before the USPSTF did.

But the lore that aspirin is a good CVD preventative for everyone remains because once upon a time, it was one of the few options we had, and that advice emerged in an era where people did what their doctors recommended and were less likely to “do their own research.”

Yep, an aspirin a day no longer keeps the doctor away.

But to be clear, I wasn’t talking about aspirin as primary prevention. 2.4% is the absolute risk reduction (relative risk reduction is 20%) for death from acute myocardial infarction, compared to placebo.

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

If one gets the Omicron variant, does that mean they'll develop antibodies to resist all other variants too?

Three variants for the Elven Kings under the sky,

Seven for the Dwarf lords in their halls of stone,

Nine for Mortal Men doomed to die,

One for the Dark Lord on his dark throne,

In the Land of Washington where the shadow lies.

One Antibody to rule them all, One Antibody to find them,

One Antibody to bring them all, and in the darkness bind them...

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14 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

Three variants for the Elven Kings under the sky,

Seven for the Dwarf lords in their halls of stone,

Nine for Mortal Men doomed to die,

One for the Dark Lord on his dark throne,

In the Land of Washington where the shadow lies.

One Antibody to rule them all, One Antibody to find them,

One Antibody to bring them all, and in the darkness bind them...

 

Not all who Pfizer are lost!

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37 minutes ago, Terminalxylem said:

No you’re not even guaranteed to get antibodies which resist omicron if you get infected. It remains to be seen how much cross reactivity occurs for those who do.

I'm not trying to pick a fight but I don't get why can you give a definitive "no"?

And I don't know what cross reactivity means.

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36 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I'm not trying to pick a fight but I don't get why can you give a definitive "no"?

And I don't know what cross reactivity means.

No.

ETA It’s hard to be definitive without data to support one’s stance. Cross reactivity means the antibodies will work against multiple strains.

Edited by Terminalxylem
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What a cluster-eff it is trying to get a mandated "negative test within 48 hours" for an event.

I bought my 10-year old daughter and wife tickets to go see the KIIS-FM Jingle Ball up in LA on Friday.  Not cheap, even for "obstructed view" tickets.  The 10-year old is SO excited and being the dad I am, that makes me feel great.  I don't know who half these people are, but apparently there's a Ninja Cat, a BLT (sandwich?), and hey at least I know who the Black Eyed Peas are.

But good God, trying to get a PCR test?  You have to be symptomatic, apparently, for insurance to cover it.  And it is not guaranteed to be within the normal 24-48 hour turn right now.  Labs are backed up.  

So we bucked up and are just paying the $95 for a rapid test at one of those "pop up" testing spots that gets you results in an hour.

Unfortunately she's only had one jab, so not fully-vaccinated... so this was the only way.  I guess we could have done a home test but :shrug:  this is what we're doing.  Yay Covid.

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More data on myocarditis:

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BACKGROUND

Reports have suggested an association between the development of myocarditis and the receipt of messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), but the frequency and severity of myocarditis after vaccination have not been extensively explored.

METHODS

We searched the database of Clalit Health Services, the largest health care organization (HCO) in Israel, for diagnoses of myocarditis in patients who had received at least one dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine (Pfizer–BioNTech). The diagnosis of myocarditis was adjudicated by cardiologists using the case definition used by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We abstracted the presentation, clinical course, and outcome from the patient’s electronic health record. We performed a Kaplan–Meier analysis of the incidence of myocarditis up to 42 days after the first vaccine dose.

RESULTS

Among more than 2.5 million vaccinated HCO members who were 16 years of age or older, 54 cases met the criteria for myocarditis. The estimated incidence per 100,000 persons who had received at least one dose of vaccine was 2.13 cases (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.56 to 2.70). The highest incidence of myocarditis (10.69 cases per 100,000 persons; 95% CI, 6.93 to 14.46) was reported in male patients between the ages of 16 and 29 years. A total of 76% of cases of myocarditis were described as mild and 22% as intermediate; 1 case was associated with cardiogenic shock. After a median follow-up of 83 days after the onset of myocarditis, 1 patient had been readmitted to the hospital, and 1 had died of an unknown cause after discharge. Of 14 patients who had left ventricular dysfunction on echocardiography during admission, 10 still had such dysfunction at the time of hospital discharge. Of these patients, 5 underwent subsequent testing that revealed normal heart function.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients in a large Israeli health care system who had received at least one dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine, the estimated incidence of myocarditis was 2.13 cases per 100,000 persons; the highest incidence was among male patients between the ages of 16 and 29 years. Most cases of myocarditis were mild or moderate in severity. 

For reference, the background rate of myocarditis in 18-24 year olds is 8-83 cases/million population, and the global burden is estimated at 22/100K. Covid increases the risk 7X for adults between the ages of 16-39, and 16X for infected individuals of all ages. 

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6 minutes ago, Terminalxylem said:

More data on myocarditis:

For reference, the background rate of myocarditis in 18-24 year olds is 8-83 cases/million population, and the global burden is estimated at 22/100K. Covid increases the risk 7X for adults between the ages of 16-39, and 16X for infected individuals of all ages. 

This was posted (after being peer reviewed) online before print a while ago. 

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40 minutes ago, Terminalxylem said:

Oh sorry. That's the final print version, just released today (33 minutes ago!).

FYI my team included that study in our cover story on this topic: https://www.healio.com/news/cardiology/20211111/getting-to-the-heart-of-covid19related-cardiac-injury

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2 hours ago, top dog said:

My brother's mother-in-law and father-in-law both tested positive for Covid right before Thanksgiving. Neither are vaccinated. She is about 70, he is late 60s. She ended up getting admitted to the hospital today. :(

I can't believe people that age still not getting vaxxed. Unreal

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On 11/26/2021 at 4:29 PM, Terminalxylem said:

Get vaccinated/boosted to simultaneously reduce your risk of infection and transmission, buying time for scientists to develop/refine preventive measures and treatments for covid-19. It’s really not complicated.

Of course not.  But we are ramming everyone with a shot that might impact that treatment.  Yolo.

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5 hours ago, nirad3 said:

What a cluster-eff it is trying to get a mandated "negative test within 48 hours" for an event.

I bought my 10-year old daughter and wife tickets to go see the KIIS-FM Jingle Ball up in LA on Friday.  Not cheap, even for "obstructed view" tickets.  The 10-year old is SO excited and being the dad I am, that makes me feel great.  I don't know who half these people are, but apparently there's a Ninja Cat, a BLT (sandwich?), and hey at least I know who the Black Eyed Peas are.

But good God, trying to get a PCR test?  You have to be symptomatic, apparently, for insurance to cover it.  And it is not guaranteed to be within the normal 24-48 hour turn right now.  Labs are backed up.  

So we bucked up and are just paying the $95 for a rapid test at one of those "pop up" testing spots that gets you results in an hour.

Unfortunately she's only had one jab, so not fully-vaccinated... so this was the only way.  I guess we could have done a home test but :shrug:  this is what we're doing.  Yay Covid.

Go to CVS.  PCR NAAT tests are free with results in less than 48 hours as long as you have insurance. I have used them 8 times in two months for work and travel to hawaii.  Total cost is zero. 

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3 hours ago, Dickies said:

Booster has me stuck in bed. Whole body is sore and achy, and just have extreme fatigue. Hopefully I wake up tomorrow full of energy 

If not tomorrow it'll likely be in the next day or 2. Reactions like that are not unusual. Your body recognizes something powerful is in it and it affecting it.

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8 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

If one gets the Omicron variant, does that mean they'll develop antibodies to resist all other variants too?

If we could list the future variants now and all their attributes and effects and logevity, we'd probably know this in a few months.

 

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On 11/29/2021 at 11:42 AM, fatness said:
On 11/25/2021 at 11:08 AM, fatness said:

Thanksgiving plans just changed in 1 phone call. 16-year-old granddaughter woke up sick with cough, fever, swollen lymph nodes. So we're switching from 9 of us indoors to 8 of us outdoors.

Update: granddaughter has lost her sense of taste and smell and has gotten a COVID test. I hope it's negative.

She has tested positive (test was early Monday morning). However, instead of an all-day fever (1-2 degrees above normal) it is now only intermittent fever. She wants her taste and smell back and asked her dad (my son) to pick her up something (I don't remember what) she read about in a medical study that will supposedly help her regain those senses. Also she's been texting with my wife, which is good for each of them. She's a pretty kickass young adult.

Just an update; don't want to derail the thread.

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8 hours ago, IvanKaramazov said:

It doesn't sound as if that travel ban did much good.  Other than sticking it to South Africa for doing their due diligence and sharing their knowledge with the scientific community.

I can't see any way a travel ban will work without forcing quarantine of incoming citizens and visitors for X amount of time, with testing. The amount of screaming that would cause is hard to over-describe.

However I do think restricting the number of travelers will help.

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