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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (5 Viewers)

Alex P Keaton said:
The post you quoted had little to do with children.  What was the intent of your post?
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The post was referring 12-34 year old statistics but to be quite honest I initially though it was referencing 12-18 year olds only. Still same logic applies to the under 35 year olds.

 
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I don't think that in the fight against COVID, society should be completely content with "small percentages" where at-hand actions can make those percentages dramatically smaller. Shouldn't be about "scary/not scary" figures ... it should be about taking every advantage a society can get over the virus. Especially the low-hanging-fruit advantages.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
fatness said:
This isn't good news.
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And Omicron has barely hit yet.
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It's not good news, but I think it's time we shift from "daily cases" to hospitalizations and deaths as our meaningful metrics.  This was my initial thought once vaccines became available, but now that we've had them for as long as we have, I think it's time.  A 'case' now isn't the same as it was prior to vaccines.  Severity should be our focal point moving forward IMO.

 
The Commish said:
It's not good news, but I think it's time we shift from "daily cases" to hospitalizations and deaths as our meaningful metrics.  This was my initial thought once vaccines became available, but now that we've had them for as long as we have, I think it's time.  A 'case' now isn't the same as it was prior to vaccines.  Severity should be our focal point moving forward IMO.
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We should really track all 3, and we should have been ever since vaccination became commonplace.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
We should really track all 3, and we should have been ever since vaccination became commonplace.
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Cases at this point MIGHT be an indicator of things to come which is significantly different from the inevitable it was prior to vaccines.  I don't have a problem with tracking it.  Reporting on it seems sensationalized at this point.  We are slowly getting to the endemic phase.

 
The Commish said:
Cases at this point MIGHT be an indicator of things to come which is significantly different from the inevitable it was prior to vaccines.  I don't have a problem with tracking it.  Reporting on it seems sensationalized at this point.  We are slowly getting to the endemic phase.
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Well, so far hospitalizations seem correlated with cases still.  I’d like to see actual statistical work on that though….and I’m too lazy / swamped to run the math myself. ;)

 
Alex P Keaton said:
Well, so far hospitalizations seem correlated with cases still.  I’d like to see actual statistical work on that though….and I’m too lazy / swamped to run the math myself. ;)
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Well, of course.  Percentages are going down though.  That too should be reported as "cases" today aren't the same indicator as they were prior to vaccine.

 
The Commish said:
Well, of course.  Percentages are going down though.  That too should be reported as "cases" today aren't the same indicator as they were prior to vaccine.
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I haven’t seen the math on % of cases that turn into hospitalization.   Do you have a good source for that info?  Would love to track it.

 
The Commish said:
It's not good news, but I think it's time we shift from "daily cases" to hospitalizations and deaths as our meaningful metrics.  This was my initial thought once vaccines became available, but now that we've had them for as long as we have, I think it's time.  A 'case' now isn't the same as it was prior to vaccines.  Severity should be our focal point moving forward IMO.
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Couldn't agree more.  Whenever people post stuff about case counts, I can't help myself from constantly asking "well, so what?"  Case counts are only interesting if "a case" is associated with something meaningfully bad -- like landing in the hospital.  In the pre-vaccine era, it made sense to track cases because we knew that some fixed or sorta-fixed percentage of those cases would inevitably have bad outcomes, but now there's such a massive gulf in likely outcomes between vaccinated and unvaccinated people that it makes little sense to lump them together like so many apples and oranges.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Couldn't agree more.  Whenever people post stuff about case counts, I can't help myself from constantly asking "well, so what?"  Case counts are only interesting if "a case" is associated with something meaningfully bad -- like landing in the hospital.  In the pre-vaccine era, it made sense to track cases because we knew that some fixed or sorta-fixed percentage of those cases would inevitably have bad outcomes, but now there's such a massive gulf in likely outcomes between vaccinated and unvaccinated people that it makes little sense to lump them together like so many apples and oranges.
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Cases are still important until we exit the pandemic stage of all of this.  There is too much spread/too many cases which is still leading to overcrowded hospitals etc.  The cases need brought down in order to mitigate the risk, even to the vaccinated.  I know a vaccinated nurse who needs a lung transplant due to covid complications, so it isn't all sunshine and rainbows.

 
Cases > Hospitalization > Death 

(Signifying progression not hierarchy)

No longer tracking cases would be like turning off your high beams on a very dark road you've never driven on before. 

That said, I do agree that cases in a vacuum are not as much a metric of concern as they once were, thanks to the vaccine.

Absent the vaccine, our hospitals would have been decimated during the Delta wave. 

 
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Cases, hospitalizations, and deaths all have to continue to be reported. 3-5-10 years from now when we have learned more about longterm effects of COVID (and hopefully, treatments for those symptoms), the case numbers (and locations) may matter in allocation of initially-scarce treatments. It's not known if cases that don't result in hospitalization will not result in longterm problems stemming from COVID.

 
It's so early in learning about the omicron variant that it's hard to tell what's important and what's not. What is being reported in South Africa is that more children are being hospitalized with COVID than in previous waves.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2021/12/coronavirus-alarm-in-south-africa-over-concerning-increase-in-children-hospitalised-with-omicron.html

"The situation is pretty concerning because this is not something that we had observed with the first, second and third wave," she told the South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC). 

"In the past, the children used to get COVID infection and they would just treat it like any other childhood viral illness and it wouldn't really put them down, it wouldn't really send them to hospital in big number to be admitted. 

"We are now seeing them coming in with moderate to severe symptoms needing supplemental oxygen, needing supportive therapy, needing to stay in hospital for quite a number of days."
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fatness said:
Cases, hospitalizations, and deaths all have to continue to be reported. 3-5-10 years from now when we have learned more about longterm effects of COVID (and hopefully, treatments for those symptoms), the case numbers (and locations) may matter in allocation of initially-scarce treatments. It's not known if cases that don't result in hospitalization will not result in longterm problems stemming from COVID.
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One thing I've been concerned about is if it can lay dormant in the body and come back later like with chicken pox and shingles. 

 
[icon] said:
Cases > Hospitalization > Death 

(Signifying progression not hierarchy)

No longer tracking cases would be like turning off your high beams on a very dark road you've never driven on before. 

That said, I do agree that cases in a vacuum are not as much a metric of concern as they once were, thanks to the vaccine.

Absent the vaccine, our hospitals would have been decimated during the Delta wave. 
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I don't mean that epidemiologists just totally ignore case counts -- more data is better than less.  Just that folks like us should realize that cases aren't as meaningful for us anymore.  No reason to get excited over them.

 
Just came across this study from Harvard Medical and Israel's Clalit Research Institute

tl;dr

Vaccine effectiveness evaluated at least 7 days after receipt of the third dose, compared with receiving only two doses at least 5 months ago...

  • for admission to hospital 92% 
  • for severe disease, 93% 
  • for death, 81%
That's on top of the waning protection from the first two doses 5+ months ago.  Which is substantial in the case of severe illness and death.

 
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Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Just came across this study from Harvard Medical and Israel's Clalit Research Institute.

tl;dr

Vaccine effectiveness evaluated at least 7 days after receipt of the third dose, compared with receiving only two doses at least 5 months ago...

  • for admission to hospital 92% 
  • for severe disease, 93% 
  • for death, 81%
That's on top of the waning protection from the first two doses 5+ months ago.  Which is substantial in the case of severe illness and death.
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Link brings you back to FBGs. 

 
Count me in the camp that cases are worth knowing, but it feels like an overreact is going on with the omicron variant. Pretty much everything I’ve seen/heard about it is that the symptoms are mild.
 

This actually feels like the first step towards the coronavirus taking it’s place like the flu. Serious to some, but nothing more than a mild illness to the great majority of others. 
 

But yet we’re being whipped into a frenzy again. This virus is going to be around in some variant forever. I’m not a medical professional by any stretch but it just seems like common sense is telling me that a virus will weaken as it mutates. But what do I know? I’m just a random internet guy. 

 
T J said:
Pretty much everything I’ve seen/heard about it is that the symptoms are mild.

This actually feels like the first step towards the coronavirus taking it’s place like the flu. Serious to some, but nothing more than a mild illness to the great majority of others.
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Unknown right now I think. 

It's possible that what's happening is just that more people being infected have either been vaccinated (more breakthrough cases) or have been previously infected (not as good as vax, but better than nothing by a lot). 

Both those things would reduce the proportion of people getting really sick, but wouldn't say anything in terms of unvaxxed, uninfected people getting sick.

 
matuski said:
What?
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I was not sure whether the protocol for a close contact was to wear a mask in the home when around other people.  My 5yr old is a close contact.  We didn't make him wear a mask at home today.  The doctor also said to send our 7yr old to school.  My 5yr old will not be tested until Wednesday (making him wait 5-days post exposure).  My wife and I are boosted.  My 7yr old had his second shot on Friday.

It didn't really cross my mind to mask him. He is only 5.  The doctor did not mention it.  But apparently when my neighbor's kid was a close contact, when the county health dept. did contact tracing, they told them to mask him and his sister (who was not a close contact, and still was told to go to school).  We have not been contacted by anyone.

 
Leeroy Jenkins said:
I was not sure whether the protocol for a close contact was to wear a mask in the home when around other people.  My 5yr old is a close contact.  We didn't make him wear a mask at home today.  The doctor also said to send our 7yr old to school.  My 5yr old will not be tested until Wednesday (making him wait 5-days post exposure).  My wife and I are boosted.  My 7yr old had his second shot on Friday.

It didn't really cross my mind to mask him. He is only 5.  The doctor did not mention it.  But apparently when my neighbor's kid was a close contact, when the county health dept. did contact tracing, they told them to mask him and his sister (who was not a close contact, and still was told to go to school).  We have not been contacted by anyone.
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Your kids have been close contact a dozen or dozens of times before.

Why your doc didn't mention it.

 
T J said:
But yet we’re being whipped into a frenzy again.
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Nobody who has read 2 weeks of news reports about the omicron variant in order to look for information is in  a frenzy. That's just hyperbole. Almost everyone posting in this thread wants to be well-informed, not to follow headlines or complaints about headlines.

 
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IvanKaramazov said:
I don't mean that epidemiologists just totally ignore case counts -- more data is better than less.  Just that folks like us should realize that cases aren't as meaningful for us anymore.  No reason to get excited over them.
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You're one of my favorite posters on this forum that I've not had the luxury of having a real world beer with. Someday I hope we remedy that last part GB. I've enjoyed your level-headed median approach here.. on top of just generally being an awesome dude in general for the last couple decades outside this thread. 

 
Actually, if not for the yeoman's work of guys like [icon], Doug B, Terminalxylem, Dinsy Ejotuz, The Commish, and others dedicated to providing information, I'd be much worse off and much less informed about coronavirus and its variants. You guys all deserve a thank you for your efforts in this thread. It's been a bright light against such a dark subject. I appreciate it. 

 
rockaction said:
Actually, if not for the yeoman's work of guys like [icon], Doug B, Terminalxylem, Dinsy Ejotuz, The Commish, and others dedicated to providing information, I'd be much worse off and much less informed about coronavirus and its variants. You guys all deserve a thank you for your efforts in this thread. It's been a bright light against such a dark subject. I appreciate it. 
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This thread has the best information on covid out there.  Literally life saving. 

 
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Alex P Keaton said:
I haven’t seen the math on % of cases that turn into hospitalization.   Do you have a good source for that info?  Would love to track it.
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There isn’t one TMK, as not a single hospitalization database for every state. Early in the pandemic it was 10% or more, but more recently it’s 1-5%, with quite a bit of variability.

Still valuable info IMO, as is test positivity %. 

 
Dezbelief said:
One thing I've been concerned about is if it can lay dormant in the body and come back later like with chicken pox and shingles. 
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Unlikely, with no precedent for latency among other coronaviruses.

In order for that to happen, the virus would need an immunologically sheltered reservoir, like nerve cells are for herpesviruses (including varicella, which causes shingles) and a bunch of cell types for HIV.

 
Terminalxylem said:
There isn’t one TMK, as not a single hospitalization database for every state. Early in the pandemic it was 10% or more, but more recently it’s 1-5%, with quite a bit of variability.

Still valuable info IMO, as is test positivity %. 
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I looked for this recently because I wanted to build full "tree" for vaxxed and unvaxxed, broken out by age and immunostatus, that showed likelihood of infection given vax status, hospitalization given infection for each, and then death given hospitalization, but had to punt.

I got good data, but it rolls up the protection against infection AND the chances infection progresses to hospitalization in one number.

 
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Dinsy Ejotuz said:
I looked for this recently because I wanted to build full "tree" for vaxxed and unvaxxed, broken out by age and immunostatus, that showed likelihood of infection given vax status, hospitalization given infection for each, and then death given hospitalization, but had to punt.

I got good data, but it rolls up the protection against infection AND the chances infection progresses to hospitalization in one number.
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lol why?

 
Stupid Vaccine question.

I originally got J+J, then followed up with a Moderna booster a couple weeks ago.  I keep hearing about the extra protection for people who got the "third shot".  Do these stats apply to my situation?  I'm technically only two shots in and dont really have the option that I'm aware of the eventually get a third shot.  

 
Scoresman said:
Stupid Vaccine question.

I originally got J+J, then followed up with a Moderna booster a couple weeks ago.  I keep hearing about the extra protection for people who got the "third shot".  Do these stats apply to my situation?  I'm technically only two shots in and dont really have the option that I'm aware of the eventually get a third shot.  
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I think third shot just means Moderna or Pfizer booster. You should be good.

 
Boostered (+flu) yesterday and I'm definitely a half-step slow today.  But not laid out like I was with the first shot.

Pro Tip from the pharmacist jabber:  ice your arm after the Moderna shot.  She said it's a bear for arm soreness and ice helps a lot.  No idea if that's why, but I'm good after icing despite two shots in that arm.

 
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Scoresman said:
Stupid Vaccine question.

I originally got J+J, then followed up with a Moderna booster a couple weeks ago.  I keep hearing about the extra protection for people who got the "third shot".  Do these stats apply to my situation?  I'm technically only two shots in and dont really have the option that I'm aware of the eventually get a third shot.  
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I haven’t looked at the comparison between 3 dose Moderna vs J&J+Moderna but it’s pretty close enough that I don’t think you’d need another dose until they tell everyone that they need another booster. IIRC from the mix and match studies only 2 doses of J&J showed decreased efficacy over the other booster options.

 
Had my booster shot scheduled but got covid and couldn't get it. When should I go for my booster?

 
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Mile High said:
Had my booster shot scheduled but got covid and couldn't get it. When should I go for my booster?
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In a sense ... your COVID infection is kind of like your booster.

Ask a doctor or call the place that administers the vaccines. I believe they typically require you to wait 90 days after you clear the infection before receiving a vaccination, but that guidance could be fluid.

 
Mile High said:
Had my booster shot scheduled but got covid and couldn't get it. When should I go for my booster?
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https://www.houstonmethodist.org/blog/articles/2021/oct/how-do-i-know-if-i-need-a-covid-19-booster-shot/

If you have recently had COVID-19 and are 18+, it's recommended that you wait to get a booster until four weeks after infection and the recommended time has elapsed since your primary series of either Pfizer or Moderna (6 months) or J&J (2 months). People who received monoclonal antibodies as part of their COVID-19 treatment plan will need to wait 90 days before getting a COVID booster.
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Or a slightly different answer. https://ktla.com/news/nationworld/do-you-still-need-a-booster-shot-if-you-just-had-covid/

the CDC still recommends eligible people get a booster shot, even if they’ve had a breakthrough case of COVID-19.

First, you should wait to recover from all your COVID-19 symptoms, says the CDC. If you’ve tested positive for the virus, you should also wait until you meet all the requirements to end your quarantine before you seek out a booster. That means you can get a booster shot as soon as 10 days after your COVID symptoms started.

“People who have been infected should wait until after they have gotten better – and they may want to wait even longer after that – but it is suggested that they get a booster, if they are recommended for it,” said Dowdy.

The CDC offers two reasons you should wait longer before getting a booster:

If you were treated with monoclonal antibodies or convalescent plasma, you should wait 90 days before getting a booster.

If you were diagnosed with multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS-A or MIS-C), you should also wait 90 days and talk to your doctor.

Whether or not you’ve suffered a breakthrough case, you also need to wait until you’re eligible to receive the booster before getting the shot. Adults who received Pfizer or Moderna for their first round of vaccination are eligible six months after their second shot. Adults who received Johnson & Johnson are eligible two months after their first shot
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So either 10 days, or 4 weeks, unless you've had monoclonal antibodies or plasma. Then it's 90 days and checking with your doctor first.

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
I got good data, but it rolls up the protection against infection AND the chances infection progresses to hospitalization in one number.
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That does lump 2 things together that aren't the same into 1 result. Hopefully you'll be able to find a way to separate them.

 
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