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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (16 Viewers)

Pretty wild Data model sheet of Coronavirus in the US.

Uses the King County case as ground zero and runs numbers that do manage to line up pretty well with our death rate (48 deaths as of today). 

The only downside is it projects  us as having 167.898 cases in America right now. 

Tomorrow 204,000

One Million by the 22nd / 333 dead / 22.7k Hospitalized / 3.1k ICU)

10 Million by April 2nd (2800 deaths / 192k Hospitalized / 29k ICU)

It even includes a convenient "Cluster Sheet" that you can run your own model on your area. 



These all assume a constant Ro which HOPEFULLY is much lower with everything being cancelled. 

 
Thanks... sobering.

At a quick glance, it doesn't look like the sheet accounts for deaths increasing when hospitals reach full capacity.

Another variable (which would be really difficult to put a number on) would be decreased efficiency of hospitals as doctors/nurses/staff become incapacitated due to illness.

 
Gym manager guy here. Wichita area. Shutting it down tomorrow or Saturday. Amazingly low amount of questions/concerns so far. But the fact we’re closing down is inevitable in my mind and we want what’s best for our staff and customers. Better to close voluntarily than a quarantined situation. Keep the ball in my court so to speak. Want to keep admin/full time staff around to manage. Plan to pay hourly/part time as long as we can. We are much like a ymca so pissing away a lot of spring program revenue but it’s happening regardless. Rather be on the front end than too late. That’s what reserves are for. Million decisions to make. 100+ ft/pt employees. Keep the pool running or shut it down and avoid utilities? We still gotta mow the ballfields and facilities. How do you figure what you’re paying variable hour part time employees? Accounting remotely. In the middle of a remodel project. They didn’t teach this class in college. Stress. Stress. Hang in there errybody. Thank you guys. This place is a major resource for me. Love. 
Can you furlough employees one day a week? That is what I am hoping to get away with, it is either that or them off.

:edit: I fully expect to have unpaid furlough days this year. At least one week a quarter starting in Q2. I work in the oil industry and it is what my company did during the last oil crash.

Essential employees were given 1 week furlough a quarter, and younger/more productive employees were offered a package of 25% of their salary for a year to not work, but with the "promise" that there job would be there when they returned, and then other employees were offered that package. During that time they were allowed to work in non-competing industries and there was a legal agreement that they had to pay that money back if they took another job.

 
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Drove by the gym on my way home and it looked like barely anyone was in there.  So figure it's probably safe to go tomorrow :shrug:

Probably safer than the 2 hours I spent in Costco/Kroger today.

 
Gym manager guy here. Wichita area. Shutting it down tomorrow or Saturday. Amazingly low amount of questions/concerns so far. But the fact we’re closing down is inevitable in my mind and we want what’s best for our staff and customers. Better to close voluntarily than a quarantined situation. Keep the ball in my court so to speak. Want to keep admin/full time staff around to manage. Plan to pay hourly/part time as long as we can. We are much like a ymca so pissing away a lot of spring program revenue but it’s happening regardless. Rather be on the front end than too late. That’s what reserves are for. Million decisions to make. 100+ ft/pt employees. Keep the pool running or shut it down and avoid utilities? We still gotta mow the ballfields and facilities. How do you figure what you’re paying variable hour part time employees? Accounting remotely. In the middle of a remodel project. They didn’t teach this class in college. Stress. Stress. Hang in there errybody. Thank you guys. This place is a major resource for me. Love. 
Good job, seriously.

You're doing the right thing on several fronts.

 
ITV: "Healthcare on brink of collapsing': Doctors share stories from inside the Italy coronavirus quarantine

Whole article worth a read.... Some wild outtakes: 

"She said: "There are a lot of young people in our Intensive Care Units (ICUs) - our youngest is a 38-year-old who had had no comorbidities (underlying health problems). 

"A lot of patients need help with breathing but there are not enough ventilators. 

"They've told us that starting from now we'll have to choose who to intubate - priority will go to the young or those without comorbidities. 

"At Niguarda, the other big hospital in Milan, they are not intubating anyone over 60, which is really, really young."m

--- 

Right now, if we get 10,000 people in Italy in need of ventilators - when we only have 3,000 in the country - 7,000 people will die.

"Rome right now is like where Milan was 10 days ago. In 10 days there has been an incredible escalation.

--- 

We've had no critical cases among children but with children, viruses are much less aggressive - think chickenpox or measles. 

"But the very young are crazy carriers. 

"A child with no symptoms will go to visit its grandparents, and basically kill them. So it’s essential to avoid contact between them".
 

---- 

He added: "You have no idea how many young people are here, I mean even 20-year-olds with no underlying conditions, in need of assisted breathing because of horrible pneumonia.

 
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Pretty wild Data model sheet of Coronavirus in the US.

Uses the King County case as ground zero and runs numbers that do manage to line up pretty well with our death rate (48 deaths as of today). 

The only downside is it projects  us as having 167.898 cases in America right now. 

Tomorrow 204,000

One Million by the 22nd / 333 dead / 22.7k Hospitalized / 3.1k ICU)

10 Million by April 2nd (2800 deaths / 192k Hospitalized / 29k ICU)

It even includes a convenient "Cluster Sheet" that you can run your own model on your area. 



These all assume a constant Ro which HOPEFULLY is much lower with everything being cancelled. 

 
I suppose it’s possible I’ve spent so much time analyzing official numbers the five missed it..but I can’t reconcile Italy with this spreadsheet.  I realize they are an older population but 1,000 deaths works out to over 3 million people, which doesn’t seem to make sense to me.  Unless the “testing” that other countries are doing is honestly just a joke. 
 

Thoughts?

 
Drove by the gym on my way home and it looked like barely anyone was in there.  So figure it's probably safe to go tomorrow :shrug:

Probably safer than the 2 hours I spent in Costco/Kroger today.
The gym is one thing I did drop this past week - I'll go back when this levels off.

Hardcore gym people are still going to go if they are symptomatic / a little sick. They cannot stand not going. 

 
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ITV: "Healthcare on brink of collapsing': Doctors share stories from inside the Italy coronavirus quarantine

Whole article worth a read.... Some wild outtakes: 

"She said: "There are a lot of young people in our Intensive Care Units (ICUs) - our youngest is a 38-year-old who had had no comorbidities (underlying health problems). 

"A lot of patients need help with breathing but there are not enough ventilators. 

"They've told us that starting from now we'll have to choose who to intubate - priority will go to the young or those without comorbidities. 

"At Niguarda, the other big hospital in Milan, they are not intubating anyone over 60, which is really, really young."m

--- 

Right now, if we get 10,000 people in Italy in need of ventilators - when we only have 3,000 in the country - 7,000 people will die.

"Rome right now is like where Milan was 10 days ago. In 10 days there has been an incredible escalation.

--- 

We've had no critical cases among children but with children, viruses are much less aggressive - think chickenpox or measles. 

"But the very young are crazy carriers. 

"A child with no symptoms will go to visit its grandparents, and basically kill them. So it’s essential to avoid contact between them".
 

---- 

He added: "You have no idea how many young people are here, I mean even 20-year-olds with no underlying conditions, in need of assisted breathing because of horrible pneumonia.


Your quotes do not do that article justice, this is what needs to get out to the american people as soon as possible.

 
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I suppose it’s possible I’ve spent so much time analyzing official numbers the five missed it..but I can’t reconcile Italy with this spreadsheet.  I realize they are an older population but 1,000 deaths works out to over 3 million people, which doesn’t seem to make sense to me.  Unless the “testing” that other countries are doing is honestly just a joke. 
 

Thoughts?
Italy is an outlier compared to Korea.  I don't get it either 

 
ITV: "Healthcare on brink of collapsing': Doctors share stories from inside the Italy coronavirus quarantine

Whole article worth a read.... Some wild outtakes: 

"She said: "There are a lot of young people in our Intensive Care Units (ICUs) - our youngest is a 38-year-old who had had no comorbidities (underlying health problems). 

"A lot of patients need help with breathing but there are not enough ventilators. 

"They've told us that starting from now we'll have to choose who to intubate - priority will go to the young or those without comorbidities. 

"At Niguarda, the other big hospital in Milan, they are not intubating anyone over 60, which is really, really young."m

--- 

Right now, if we get 10,000 people in Italy in need of ventilators - when we only have 3,000 in the country - 7,000 people will die.

"Rome right now is like where Milan was 10 days ago. In 10 days there has been an incredible escalation.

--- 

We've had no critical cases among children but with children, viruses are much less aggressive - think chickenpox or measles. 

"But the very young are crazy carriers. 

"A child with no symptoms will go to visit its grandparents, and basically kill them. So it’s essential to avoid contact between them".
 

---- 

He added: "You have no idea how many young people are here, I mean even 20-year-olds with no underlying conditions, in need of assisted breathing because of horrible pneumonia.
Whoa

 
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ITV: "Healthcare on brink of collapsing': Doctors share stories from inside the Italy coronavirus quarantine

Whole article worth a read.... Some wild outtakes: 

"She said: "There are a lot of young people in our Intensive Care Units (ICUs) - our youngest is a 38-year-old who had had no comorbidities (underlying health problems). 

"A lot of patients need help with breathing but there are not enough ventilators. 

"They've told us that starting from now we'll have to choose who to intubate - priority will go to the young or those without comorbidities. 

"At Niguarda, the other big hospital in Milan, they are not intubating anyone over 60, which is really, really young."m

--- 

Right now, if we get 10,000 people in Italy in need of ventilators - when we only have 3,000 in the country - 7,000 people will die.

"Rome right now is like where Milan was 10 days ago. In 10 days there has been an incredible escalation.

--- 

We've had no critical cases among children but with children, viruses are much less aggressive - think chickenpox or measles. 

"But the very young are crazy carriers. 

"A child with no symptoms will go to visit its grandparents, and basically kill them. So it’s essential to avoid contact between them".
 

---- 

He added: "You have no idea how many young people are here, I mean even 20-year-olds with no underlying conditions, in need of assisted breathing because of horrible pneumonia.
The United States is 100% on this same track.

These type situations and decisions are terrifying, unthinkable, and highly likely to happen here as well.

 
Italy is an outlier compared to Korea.  I don't get it either 
There’s two underlying facts that makes me believe we’re much closer to Italy than SKorea, the per capita hospital bed rate and the fact that S Kore is testing so many people, so early that they manage to triage before hospitalization is required, but I hope I’m wrong.

 
Italy is an outlier compared to Korea.  I don't get it either 
There’s two underlying facts that makes me believe we’re much closer to Italy than SKorea, the per capita hospital bed rate and the fact that S Kore is testing so many people, so early that they manage to triage before hospitalization is required, but I hope I’m wrong.
I also didn't realize that Italy was that highly regarded (#2 behind France) by the WHO (at least, in 2000 when the study was done). The United States is #37 on that list.

 
Monitoring hospital rules or changes as I get my port flushed next week. I guess I'll be sent away if I have a temp. 🤷‍♀️

"Everyone will get their temperature checked prior to entry. Visitors will not be allowed to visit if they do not pass any of the screening or temperature check. We are also not allowing those under the age of 18 to visit at this time. Thank you for your understanding. This is for the safety of all patients, as well as our staff, physicians and volunteers."

 
As someone who has been to a lot of them (doing IT work) I can promise you, there are a ton of really crappy hospitals in this country. 
Oh yeah, my first post-college job was doing tier 1 tech support at a large hospital network. It was/is one of the better ones and it still wasn't very encouraging.

I mostly meant that I had kind of assumed that Italy was lower-tier for European healthcare or something (as a partial explanation for the number of deaths). Was just surprised to see that assumption thoroughly proven wrong.

 
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Can you furlough employees one day a week? That is what I am hoping to get away with, it is either that or them off.

:edit: I fully expect to have unpaid furlough days this year. At least one week a quarter starting in Q2. I work in the oil industry and it is what my company did during the last oil crash.

Essential employees were given 1 week furlough a quarter, and younger/more productive employees were offered a package of 25% of their salary for a year to not work, but with the "promise" that there job would be there when they returned, and then other employees were offered that package. During that time they were allowed to work in non-competing industries and there was a legal agreement that they had to pay that money back if they took another job.
We’re pretty pat. I’m gonna hang in there for a couple of two week payrolls and make decisions based on the new current situation. Whatever that is. But we may we’ll get there to furloughs. I feel like down time will be on the long end. April? Pffft. 

 
I can WFH whenever, however I am curious about infrastructure when millions of people are trying to at the same time.  VPN issues, bandwidth issues, etc.

 
What is everyone doing with their 401ks?  I still have 30 years to go and I know it will rebound but I am considering moving to a safer mix tommorow.

 
I can WFH whenever, however I am curious about infrastructure when millions of people are trying to at the same time.  VPN issues, bandwidth issues, etc.
This.  I’m an IT Director and I have this concern. We have VPN capacities for half our company to WFH.  We’ve never had more than 1/10 of the company at any one time. This will test our own capacities (never been maxed out) and I fear that the internet bandwidth might not be there based on nationwide usage.  

 
What is everyone doing with their 401ks?  I still have 30 years to go and I know it will rebound but I am considering moving to a safer mix tommorow.
I have about 15-20 years left.  I wanted to retire in 15.  Might have to work 5 more years.  I’m too dumb to know what to do and will just leave it as is for fear of doing the wrong thing. 

 
30 years to go you won’t want to change your mix 
It depends on whether you think things are more likely than not to get worse from where we are now, and for the stock market to reflect that.

I 100% do expect that.

As such, I'd try to preserve as much of a 401k as possible right now from further losses.

 
There's a dude from the Japan ship has been in quarantine since Feb 4. In Omaha NE since Feb 17, put in a biocontainment center in there for 10 days, now still locked up, can't open the window, go outside, waiting to shed the cv. He's in a clinical trial too. He was retested today and still is positive after 28 days. 

So you can't assume it's just a 14 day thing. Omaha requires 3 clear tests before you're released. 
Earlier on Thursday Bloomberg was reporting scientists in China found that the virus can live inside the human body for up to 37 days.

Now I don't know how long they are contagious for but 37 days!

 
Penguin said:
So the confirmed case 5 miles from me was a 27 year old male that was at the Biogen conference. His 17 year old sister was just confirmed today. My best friend's daughter sits next to her in class. The CDC just called him and he and his daughter need to self quarentine (along with 50 other students and their families.) I was just out with him Monday night :scared:
Friends daughter now with Flu like symptoms, fever and heavy coughing. Here's hoping to it just being the regular flu

 
Golden Gopher said:
Been putting off my usual every-couple-of-weeks Costco run for a few days now.  Decided to bite the bullet and just go this morning, needing milk, eggs, half and half, meat, etc. plus some snacks and stuff for my three kids.  Figured they may or may not have TP or disinfectant wipes, but it would be a bonus if they did.  

I arrived to the parking lot at 9:40 (they open at 10:00, but I expected there would be a crowd waiting).  Parking lot was almost full.  As I approached the entrance, I saw that they had blocked entry with a line of carts standing on end.  People were lined up, waiting to enter, around the corner.  I walked towards the end of the line, and as I turned the corner (around towards where the gas and tire departments are), I saw that the line continued for what was probably several city blocks.  The length of the parking lot, then back, then down again.... zig zagging back and forth, the full length of the parking lot each time.  Hundreds of people.

I decided to just wait and see what would happen when they opened.  Stood by the front entrance (there were a few others with apparently the same plan of action).  The store opened its doors at 9:45... 15 minutes earlier than normal.  I watched and waited for 15 minutes while people streamed in, showing their membership cards.  At 10:00, the line hadn't gotten any shorter.  As fast as they were entering the store, people from the parking lot were joining the line.  At that point, I decided I'll just go back later, hoping it's not as crazy.  They'll be out of TP, bottled water, and probably a few other items, but hopefully not the majority of the things on my list.  Or maybe they will be?  

I have seen some pretty crazy Costco experiences.  This was like nothing I've ever experienced.  Call it Black Friday times 10.  
Went back to Costco at about 4:30 this afternoon.  It was busy, but NOTHING like this morning.  Went in like normal, other than the fact that there were literally ZERO carts near the store entrance.  They were instead scattered around the parking lot, in clusters of 10-20, in addition to all of the metal "cart corrals" being packed.  Inside, I pretty much got everything I was there for.... eggs, milk, half and half, snacks, booze, and lots of meat.  Enough to last a month, roughly.  They also had kids Benedryl, tylenol, and vitamins on sale, so I grabbed some of each.  

Things they were out of.... toilet paper, paper towels, tissues/kleenex, water (no bottles of any size), antibacterial wipes, and organic ground beef.  Mostly pretty much what I expected. 

On my way out, I asked the guy checking me out if they re-stock the TP daily.  He said that they do, but it's been selling out within an hour or two every day.  I may go back tomorrow and, if it's not as crazy as this morning was, grab some.  My gut says we will be quarantined soon.  Public schools here (Ventura County) are closing Monday 3/16, until at least April 10th.  Los Angeles County is something similar (not sure on the dates, but they're closing).  

I coach my 7YO son's baseball team, and we just had our first game on Monday evening (lost 9-7).  Got an email tonight that says all little league activities are suspended indefinitely.  My mind went to "What if the season is a wrap, and I end up not coaching next year?  What if my career coaching record ends at 0-1?  I can't let that happen.  Need to coach again next year!"  Sometimes it's funny where your mind drifts to in times like these.  

That said, I was also thinking today about how I would normally be so incredibly bummed about all of the sports cancellations.  NCAA tourney< even though it's not as great as it once was, is like Christmas morning for me.   TPC Sawgrass also.  Not to mention baseball opening day, the NBA, and the upcoming NFL draft (still yet to be determined how that is impacted by all of this).  And, while I still get bummed thinking about all of those things, there is so much more to think about.  My kids (9, 7, and 4).  My parents (70 and 69).  My GF (a widow) and her 13YO daughter.  How I would do just about anything to protect the people closest to me.  Sports becomes a minor detail, even though I am admittedly as big of a sports nut as anyone.  This really puts things in perspective, and in a big hurry.  

 
CurlyNight said:
SF schools went from open if you want to send your kids to closed effective Mon.

4 firefighters here are infected. Sad for our healthcare and first responders who are getting infected as they try to help others.


Brony said:
On the school not immediately closing, I get it in terms of giving parents a reasonable chance to have coverage.  In terms of public health, it is a little hypocritical. 
That was my first thought.   Why wait until April?  

Capella said:
Would be thrilled if it’s a huge over-reaction and we don’t go through an Italy situation. THRILLED. I’ll listen to every idiot boomer joke. 
Absolutely.  I'd much rather look back six months from now and comment on how much we overreacted than be talking about how we didn't react enough.  The cost of the former is what?  Everybody spends more time at home, with their families, than normal?  Meanwhile, the cost of the latter could be truly devestating. 

 
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I’m biased by living with a high risk person, but please consider going along with social distancing even if you’re not concerned about yourself getting it. 
While I know there are some people that NEED to keep working, every person who stays home is one less person collecting and passing germs to people who may not be able to fight this one. 
 

 
That was my first thought.   Why wait until April?  

Absolutely.  I'd much rather look back six months from now and comment on how much we overreacted than be talking about how we didn't react enough.  The cost of the former is what?  Everybody spends more time at home, with their families, than normal?  Meanwhile, the cost of the latter could be truly devestating. 
Unfortunately, I suspect the cost of over reaction is equally serious though less deadly.

We may:

- start a global recession

- cause irreparable harm to the most traditionally needy (kids who rely on school meals, those in need of serious but non critical medical care)

- anyone reliant on charitable support

- cause us to become even more I'll prepared for the next real pandemic

- cause further institutional distrust

- continue the erosion of respect for expertise

- a dozen other things 

 
[icon] said:
GOOD NEWS / BAD NEWS

GOOD NEWS: High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19

BAD NEWS: "high temperature and high relative humidity reduce the transmission of COVID-19 with a significance level of 1% and 5%, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of cities. One degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0266 and 0.0106, respectively"

Meaning: Increasing the temp from 69 to 95 will reduce the Ro by 0.39. A 30% increase in RH will add .3 bringing the Ro reduction to about 0.7. 

Not ineffective but it takes a big change to make a measurable difference. 
Even though we don't precisely know Ro, reducing it to less than 1 would ultimately stop the virus' spread.

 
Count me in the “way over reacting” camp. The damage being done to people’s lives financially and the world economies in general by far outweigh the benefits we’re deriving from this planetary lockdown. 
 

I believe that in the course of human history, things like this happen where the herd is thinned and they can’t be stopped. Nature gets what nature wants. Ya, lots of people will die, maybe myself, maybe family. But it’s an acceptable risk given the actual likelihood of death. 
 

Not saying I want anyone to die, but I am saying that we should accept it. Cold, I know. We should care for those we can. Elderly and compromised individuals should use extra special care but the whole world should not have to stop to make it less dangerous for them. 
 

Strange times indeed, but people’s retirements are being devastated right now and the overall impact of the economic hit will have a much greater negative impact long term on way more people than had we not overreacted like we have. 
 

just all my 2 cents

 
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