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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread


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Here's a sophisticated tool being used to model the CV.

I've spent some time futzing with it and if I've figured it out right (no promises), getting the rate of transmission to 1 or below by the end of March saves roughly 90% of the lives we'd lose if we didn't get it done until the end of April.  The cost of waiting is absolutely enormous.  

And it's hard to tell what "best case" and "worst case" look like without knowing what's real-world achievable in terms of slowing the rate of transmission, so the range of outcomes is enormous. 

Not sure if .5 (each infected person infects .5 people on average) or 1.0 (each infected infects one other) or some other number is the input to use once we get serious about fighting this nationwide, but just for illustration (again, I have NO IDEA what's realistic)... getting it to .5 by the end of March gets us out of this with something like 30k fatalities.  Waiting until April and getting it down to 1.0 results in ~1MM eventual deaths.

Regardless of whether I'm using this exactly right or my input ranges are realistic, I think the takeaway here is that despite the wasted months, we still have a big opportunity to impact what happens over the next 6-12 months.

DO YOUR PART

Edited by Dinsy Ejotuz
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Blast away but I feel like if this was in the WWII era, we'd be told we can leave our homes and return to work and daily lives at noon tomorrow provided we come out wearing masks. Then the radio would provide step by step instructions on how to make them out of t-shirts and yarn. Those caught in public without masks would get escalating fines/punishment and we'd somehow emerge fine as a nation.

Fast forward to today - If rather than mailing checks pushing 1 trillion dollars and keeping us from working and moving around in public, would we be better served investing our resources in supplying masks to everyone? Keep in mind people are ignoring the stay at home orders all over the country and doing so without masks. I gotta believe that if everyone was wearing masks and washing their hands, we'd get through this. And I think people would gladly accept having to wear masks for the foreseeable future if it meant we could carry on working and living. I know the masks aren't perfect, but if literally everyone was wearing them?

Edited by Mr Anonymous
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2 hours ago, Statorama said:

 

2 hours ago, -fish- said:

This is really freaking cool.   

that's awesome.  

but.....this is what will happen:  cease and desist.  patent violation.  hasn't been vetted by the fda, etc.  sued out of existence, people keep dying.  hate to be negative, but this is the world we live in

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4 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Blast away but I feel like if this was in the WWII era, we'd be told we can leave our homes and return to work and daily lives at noon tomorrow provided we come out wearing masks. Then the radio would provide step by step instructions on how to make them out of t-shirts and yarn. Those caught in public without masks would get escalating fines/punishment and we'd somehow emerge fine as a nation.

Fast forward to today, if rather than mailing checks pushing 1 trillion dollars and keeping us from working and moving around in public, would we be better served investing our resources in supplying masks to everyone? Keep in mind people are ignoring the stay at home orders all over the country and doing so without masks. I gotta believe that if everyone was wearing masks and washing their hands, we'd get through this. And I think people would gladly accept having to wear masks for the foreseeable future if it meant we could carry on working and living. I know the masks aren't perfect, but if literally everyone was wearing them?

Anyone, please enlighten me.  You can't continually  wear a mask, correct?  I t has to be replaced at some point, right?   I'v e got the majority of a box of N-95s from a mold remediaton effort we did on our building.  I work in DC and have seen what I believe is a misuse of  masks.  Hell,  I imagine I could attempt using an ex girlfriend's b cup bra or her g string as a defense

 

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1 minute ago, rogwadd said:

Anyone, please enlighten me.  You can't continually  wear a mask, correct?  I t has to be replaced at some point, right?   I'v e got the majority of a box of N-95s from a mold remediaton effort we did on our building.  I work in DC and have seen what I believe is a misuse of  masks.  Hell,  I imagine I could attempt using an ex girlfriend's b cup bra or her g string as a defense

 

I bought one years ago to try wear when spraying weeds. I couldn't breathe through the damn thing. No way I could wear it for a few minutes let alone all day.

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2 minutes ago, cap'n grunge said:

I bought one years ago to try wear when spraying weeds. I couldn't breathe through the damn thing. No way I could wear it for a few minutes let alone all day.

And yet our healthcare workers are wearing it all day.

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1 minute ago, shuke said:

I'm glad I live in a state with beer drive-thrus.

 

My state closed down bars/breweries among other things, but now they can have drive thrus and deliver. I guess there are some upsides to a horrible global crisis.

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13 minutes ago, rogwadd said:

Anyone, please enlighten me.  You can't continually  wear a mask, correct?  I t has to be replaced at some point, right?   I'v e got the majority of a box of N-95s from a mold remediaton effort we did on our building.  I work in DC and have seen what I believe is a misuse of  masks.  Hell,  I imagine I could attempt using an ex girlfriend's b cup bra or her g string as a defense

 

Well ####, for a trillion dollars lets get some better masks and throw in some gloves while we're at it. I don't care how uncomfortable any of 'em are if it allows me to get back to normal life. 

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2 minutes ago, Ray McKigney said:

I'm liquidating all my brokerage accounts first thing Monday morning and moving what's left of my 401k to money markets. Hoarding every available cent I have to pay bills for the next few months. My wife will be laid off instantly and I may or may not survive it. I won't receive a stimulus check if what they're floating out there passes. Unemployment won't even cover my mortgage and utilities. 

Getting ready for financial armageddon. This could end up being the Great Depression II. Unemployment is going to skyrocket, the stimulus package is going to tank the dollar, and small businesses, bars, restaurants, and hotels are going to close their doors by the thousands. 

Wishing you the best.  What you just described is why I don't think we can do this on a long term basis.  Maybe we can suck it up for 2 weeks, 3 weeks, 4 weeks, but at some point if we can avoid the flooding of our health care system we have to cut the economy back on.

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1 minute ago, Shula-holic said:

Wishing you the best.  What you just described is why I don't think we can do this on a long term basis.  Maybe we can suck it up for 2 weeks, 3 weeks, 4 weeks, but at some point if we can avoid the flooding of our health care system we have to cut the economy back on.

I agree. At some point the pressure will be to great and they will have to do it. Hopefully we'll have flattened the curve enough to make a difference, and even then we will have enough social distancing and other learned mannerisms is help slow the spread.

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31 minutes ago, DA RAIDERS said:

mine has authorized the sale of mixed drinks, to go.  global pandemic?  go ahead and drink and drive.  weird times 

 

28 minutes ago, CurlyNight said:

beat ya by 3 minutes ;) 

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Braindead Brewing here in Dallas is organizing a drive-in movie. 

Great concept (the drive in... Drinking plus drive in would seem to be fine. If it were 1972).  Social event but isolated in your own cars. And a blast from the past.

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1 hour ago, krista4 said:

I think there are cases there, as I read from Nicaraguan friends that their second case was someone who had brought it from Colombia.  Nicaragua is, as always, being infuriating in response, as the government is promising the biggest Easter week and celebrations ever (Easter is the biggest celebration of the year there).

BNO Newsroom

NEW: Colombia announces 'nationwide quarantine' from Wednesday through April 13 in fight against coronavirus.

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Laurie Garrett

@Laurie_Garrett

1 hr

The last time I heard this many ambulance sirens piercing the NYC night was 9/11 . #COVID19 is slamming us...8000 cases and counting, hospitals full, #Trump declared us a national emergency zone. Things turned radically today....our surge has started.

She's a good one to follow on Twitter for NY..

Edited by CurlyNight
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8 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

Worth watching the video in this article to get a sense of what is going on Italy.  I think harsh measures are needed. Yes, it is going to hurt the economy but what you see in this video is going to hurt more. 
 

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-they-call-it-the-apocalypse-inside-italys-hardest-hit-hospital-11960597

Absolutely awful.

Yeah, most intensivists don't get rattled or stressed. For one of them to say that is legit scary. The sheer volume is just overwhelming, day after day.

We better hope we can control this before it gets to that point here.

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59 minutes ago, rogwadd said:

Anyone, please enlighten me.  You can't continually  wear a mask, correct?  I t has to be replaced at some point, right?   I'v e got the majority of a box of N-95s from a mold remediaton effort we did on our building.  I work in DC and have seen what I believe is a misuse of  masks.  Hell,  I imagine I could attempt using an ex girlfriend's b cup bra or her g string as a defense

Officially, N95 masks are only designed to be used once, for a short period of time (like 30 minutes max).

Unofficially......you can use them over and over again until they fall apart. Protection levels will gradually decline, but it's still better than a bandana.

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11 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

Worth watching the video in this article to get a sense of what is going on Italy.  I think harsh measures are needed. Yes, it is going to hurt the economy but what you see in this video is going to hurt more. 
 

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-they-call-it-the-apocalypse-inside-italys-hardest-hit-hospital-11960597

What are harsh measures in your opinion?  

Short of locking everyone in their home and maybe allowing one person to go get groceries once a week, it's not going to make a difference.

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2 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:
17 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

Worth watching the video in this article to get a sense of what is going on Italy.  I think harsh measures are needed. Yes, it is going to hurt the economy but what you see in this video is going to hurt more. 
 

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-they-call-it-the-apocalypse-inside-italys-hardest-hit-hospital-11960597

What are harsh measures in your opinion?  

Short of locking everyone in their home and maybe allowing one person to go get groceries once a week, it's not going to make a difference.

Harsh measures are not possible without widespread testing, IMO.

Even if we lockdown the entire country, the virus will re-appear the moment we re-open the airports, the shipyards, and the border crossings.

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15 hours ago, Terminalxylem said:

Another good point. Probably not a lot of diabetes, hypertension and obesity either. 

Hard to develop those diseases when you're dealing with malaria, TB and HIV. And starving.

The problem is hypertension and heart disease can be hereditary and have nothing to do with diet or exercise. My dad is 62, runs 3-4 marathons a year, and is extremely healthy except he has high blood pressure and had a 98% block of the widowmaker a couple years ago.

I am only 38, I exercise daily, 6'1" 165, greatly cut down my sodium intake by not eating any processed foods, and yet I still have 130/85 which is pre-hypertension. I cannot reduce my blood pressure further no matter what I try.

I am not sure if i would fall in the "preexisting" conditions if this got me, but my dad certainly would and it is no fault of his own.

Edited by MTskibum
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8 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

Harsh measures are not possible without widespread testing, IMO.

Even if we lockdown the entire country, the virus will re-appear the moment we re-open the airports, the shipyards, and the border crossings.

Between that and all the temperatures checks, I think China was able to corral this.  Problem is that we sent all our manufacturing to China so we can't make what we need and we don't have people available at 15 cents an hour to stand in front of the stores and check temperatures.

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1 hour ago, Ray McKigney said:

I'm liquidating all my brokerage accounts first thing Monday morning and moving what's left of my 401k to money markets. Hoarding every available cent I have to pay bills for the next few months. My wife will be laid off instantly and I may or may not survive it. I won't receive a stimulus check if what they're floating out there passes. Unemployment won't even cover my mortgage and utilities. 

Getting ready for financial armageddon. This could end up being the Great Depression II. Unemployment is going to skyrocket, the stimulus package is going to tank the dollar, and small businesses, bars, restaurants, and hotels are going to close their doors by the thousands. 

Assuming this isn't shtick, it is about the worst possible time to move your 401k from stocks to money funds.  Unless you are already post 59 and are planning to draw in the next few years for income.

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1 hour ago, CurlyNight said:

Laurie Garrett

@Laurie_Garrett

1 hr

The last time I heard this many ambulance sirens piercing the NYC night was 9/11 . #COVID19 is slamming us...8000 cases and counting, hospitals full, #Trump declared us a national emergency zone. Things turned radically today....our surge has started.

She's a good one to follow on Twitter for NY..

Wait, really?

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