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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (12 Viewers)

Good article on the regulations and regulators that delayed testing - There's a good timeline in there also.

Unfortunately, the United States has not made testing widely available and now various regions are being forced to impose severe economic and social lockdowns. As of March 17, the U.S. had tested only about 125 people per million. South Korea had tested more than 5,000 people per million. Between early February and mid-March, the U.S. lost six crucial weeks because regulators stuck to rigid regulations instead of adapting as new information came in. While these rules might have made sense in normal times, they proved disastrous in a pandemic. 
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Non-China Reported Cases

2/7 - 277 reported cases

2/12 - 490 reported cases

2/17 - 893 reported cases -  5 dead 

2/22 - 1,834 reported cases - 19 dead

2/26 - 3,650 reported cases - 57 dead

2/29 - 7,155 reported cases - 109 dead - USA 68 cases - 1 dead

3/5 - 17,353 reported cases - 344 dead - USA 210 cases - 12 dead

3/9 - 33,303 reported cases - 881 dead - USA 628 cases - 26 dead

3/13 - 64,567 reported cases - 2,239 dead - USA 2,269 cases - 48 dead

3/18 - 138,059 reported cases - 5,715 dead - USA 9,301 cases - 152 dead

3/19 - 164,646 reported cases - 6,800 dead - USA 14,299 cases - 218 dead

3/20 - 194,589 reported cases - 8,126 dead - USA 19,383 cases - 256 dead

3/21 - 225,885 reported cases - 9,771 dead - USA 26,112 cases - 325 dead

3/22 - 255,584 reported cases - 11,350 dead - USA 33,346 cases - 414 dead

3/23 - 297,299 reported cases - 13,221 dead - USA 43,449 cases - 545 dead

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-J_vry7rclLIGooJ-Cu7OFH8rRRjB51lz1iGkwcTETc/edit#gid=0

Haven't been able to follow much that's happening today, but in these overall numbers, we still are showing no signs of slowing down.

 
THE INVISIBLE SCOURGE.  Jesus #### he really think we are stupid.   Or at least 40% of them

 
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He keeps saying “we are going to open it back up”

Wth is closed besides bars, restaraunts and some conctruction? Not that they’re not a big deal, I just don’t understand wtf he’s talking about

 
For anyone listening to or following Trump right now, realize there is a very real chance he's going to get you killed. There's 100% certainty that his words are going to kill some people...I truly hope none of you fall in this group out of sheer luck. 

eta: I'd happily sign up for 4 more years of Trump if he would switch course immediately, warn people how serious it is, lock #### down, and get our healthcare professionals everything they need. Not even a question. 

 
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shuke said:
Not really though.  Think about it, we need food, right?  So just the grocery stores?

Well, what about the companies that make and package the food?  The businesses that make and service the equipment used to make food and packaging would be necessary.  Well, those businesses need parts to make and service the machines.  And those companies need the raw materials and outside services to make the components.  And each and every one of those companies need payroll support, and IT support, janitorial support, and a whole slew of things that you probably wouldn't even have thought of.  

Now think about everything else associated with a grocery store.  The delivery and distribution, logistics, infrastructure, IT support, utilities supply, fincancial, etc.  Each of those things would have levels upon levels of supporting businesses.

And that's just food.  Think about hospitals, medical equipment manufacturers, gas stations, hardware stores (for emergencies).  Think about all of the supporting businesses that they rely on.  

The economy is really much more intertwined than people realize.
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Everyone should listen to shuke on the topic of food distribution. 

GM on the other hand... well... he sucks. 

 
ericttspikes said:
Where is the airline industry on this? It took only two days after 9/11 to resume air transport as they beefed up security checks, disallowed items like boxcutters, etc. People working in airports should be in Tyvek suits with full on respirators if necessary. Temp scan passengers and make them wear protective gear. Where is American ingenuity to make a tough situation workable and safer? 
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United is gearing up to eliminate employees if they don't get a juicy aid package.

 
shuke said:
Not really though.  Think about it, we need food, right?  So just the grocery stores?

Well, what about the companies that make and package the food?  The businesses that make and service the equipment used to make food and packaging would be necessary.  Well, those businesses need parts to make and service the machines.  And those companies need the raw materials and outside services to make the components.  And each and every one of those companies need payroll support, and IT support, janitorial support, and a whole slew of things that you probably wouldn't even have thought of.  

Now think about everything else associated with a grocery store.  The delivery and distribution, logistics, infrastructure, IT support, utilities supply, fincancial, etc.  Each of those things would have levels upon levels of supporting businesses.

And that's just food.  Think about hospitals, medical equipment manufacturers, gas stations, hardware stores (for emergencies).  Think about all of the supporting businesses that they rely on.  

The economy is really much more intertwined than people realize.
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Our next guest on Supply Chain Radio....Is Shuke from the Internet.

 
Parrothead said:
New York City is making this so much worse..  horrible :no:
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To be fair, the lack of testing available was not NY's fault. It was hard to make decisions based on the data we had last week. 

But with the data we have now, I can't believe the city isn't on a full quarantine. It's multiple times worse that Italy. We are days, if not hours, away from seeing their hospitals become overrun. 

 
Sandeman said:
I gotta say, I just don't understand why the Japanese and/or the IOC are holding on to the Olympics. Shocked it hasn't been canceled yet. Good for Canada pulling out. Sends the right message; others need to get on board. Jesus man. Ain't no way it happens.
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Just like Kansas leaving the NCAAs. But Canada is probably more of a 4 seed in the summer Olympics. So maybe Duke.

 
Local news showing local restaurant that is now delivering. Guy going door to door and handing out bags of food and standing there talking to customers on their porch. Wtf???

Then they cut to weather. The weather lady says some local kids had a great idea to still play together. They were kicking a soccer ball across the street to each other. 

Wtf??? 

 
facook said:
Dude.  I thought you hated talking politics in here?  Or was that an alias?  Or are you answering for someone else?
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I said that Donald keeps talking about opening everything back up, and then I said besides bars and restaurants and construction sites everything is opened up to my knowledge, from what I’m seeing.

I’m not criticizing him , the Republicans the Democrats or anybody, I just don’t understand what he is saying. What are we going to “open up”?

 
parasaurolophus said:
Local news showing local restaurant that is now delivering. Guy going door to door and handing out bags of food and standing there talking to customers on their porch. Wtf???

Then they cut to weather. The weather lady says some local kids had a great idea to still play together. They were kicking a soccer ball across the street to each other. 

Wtf??? 
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Where do you live?

 
kodycutter said:
Desantis: Huge amount of New Yorkers flying to Florida

While speaking Monday about whether he will lock down the state of Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis said “huge amounts” of New Yorkers are flying to Florida despite the stay-at-home order they are currently under.

DeSantis said there were over 190 flights from the New York City area to Florida airports on Monday. 

“A lot of people fled the city and they’re going to stay with their parents, or they’re flying. We’re getting huge amounts of people flying in and we’re looking at how to address those flights,” DeSantis said.

Edit: also in the article:   Gov. Ron DeSantis said Monday that he will sign an executive order that will force anyone who travels from New York or New Jersey to Florida to self-isolate for two weeks immediately after they land in the state.
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I don't know why NY isn't closing it's borders. That's the 1 state that should be shut down for anyone to leave.

 
Cowboysfan8 said:
I said that Donald keeps talking about opening everything back up, and then I said besides bars and restaurants and construction sites everything is opened up to my knowledge, from what I’m seeing.

I’m not criticizing him , the Republicans the Democrats or anybody, I just don’t understand what he is saying. What are we going to “open up”?
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My bad.  I thought the guy quoted you was asking "who" to that hammerva dude.  I apologize.  Vodka-polgize.

 
I don’t know about unconstitutional, but how do you impose such a thing when the only reason Florida’s numbers are not the same is likely due to the number of tests per capita?

 
Mr. Ham said:
You good?
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Doing what I can. Massive amounts of alcohol and food stocked up. Ordered an arcade game and a pinball machine for entertainment. 

Unfortunately tons of chores to do, too. Mostly unpacking and storing and assembling ####. 

Couldn't have been sheltered in place at a better time.

 
Watch your mailboxes. My mother's new year card with a check gift for me was stolen as I thought it was. Check was cashed. Thieves are looking for any form of money. They go to these check cashing stores, offer a portion to not worry about ID, and it's done. Feel bad for mom. She's a senior on fixed income!

I wonder since the government will be sending checks, how many will be stolen and cashed like this. It either was a postal worker or put in the wrong box.

 
Doug B said:
On this point specifically ... I wonder if both China and WHO kind of missed this altogether. After all ... what means did they have to distinguish between healthies and asymptomatic carriers? Sure, some asymptomatics were caught in China because they shared a household with a confirmed case, or were a close contact. But surely there are (many) others that even aggressive contract tracing didn't find?
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I think so. Although every infection has a different spectrum of illness, usually a significant portion are asymptomatic. Can't tell you how many times I've had to explain this concept regarding influenza, mono, herpes and HPV. Notable exceptions include rabies and HIV (excluding non-progressers).

 
My favorite about these press conferences is how they all stand next to each other, to get in TV camera lines of sight, all the while telling the nation to make sure and keep their distance from each other.  Hello, there are 5 of you within a 10 x 4 foot box right now.

 
If Public Health called tomorrow and told you that you had tested positive for COVID-19 and asked you to list all the places you had been and all the people you had been in contact with for the last 10 days - would you be proud of yourself, or embarrassed by your actions? 

Just something to think about. No need to answer.

 
my only regret this point (as it pertains to this virus :unsure:  ) is that I didn't check this thread a month ago :wall:  thanks to those who are posting good info and links (and humor)

 
ericttspikes said:
Where is the airline industry on this? It took only two days after 9/11 to resume air transport as they beefed up security checks, disallowed items like boxcutters, etc. People working in airports should be in Tyvek suits with full on respirators if necessary. Temp scan passengers and make them wear protective gear. Where is American ingenuity to make a tough situation workable and safer? 
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Our leadership (for better or worse) took a different route. In the initial weeks there was a focus on different data points, not in immediate response. At least that is my assessment. 

 
Question as I've been too busy to follow closely. 

Why on earth is anyone in favor of paying people directly rather than sending aid to companies with the contingency they keep staff employed? Help keep small/mid sized businesses afloat via cash and runway (defer liabilities) with strict earmarks they they keep staff covered. Set aside help for unemployed (extend/enhance unemployment and food stamps). 

If we follow the focus on handing people checks approach, their employers will go under..  and we will have a glut of people dependent on federal aid. how do people not realize this is a terrible idea? 

We need jobs to be intact when this dies down. 

 
parasaurolophus said:
Local news showing local restaurant that is now delivering. Guy going door to door and handing out bags of food and standing there talking to customers on their porch. Wtf???

Then they cut to weather. The weather lady says some local kids had a great idea to still play together. They were kicking a soccer ball across the street to each other. 

Wtf??? 
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If they don’t touch the ball what’s the problem. Pretty creative imo 

 
I'm seeing a lot of posts here and in my social media feeds along the lines of "I think I had coronavirus back in February and I just didn't realize it at the time."  No you didn't.  Or at least it is vanishingly unlikely that you did. 

If we know anything about this virus, it is that it it causes very severe symptoms in about 20% of patients that requires hospitalization.  If C-19 was widely circulating in February, our hospitals would have been overwhelmed by an illness that was causing non-flu viral pneumonia and putting a bunch of people on ventilators.  Nobody would have missed this, especially since the exact same outbreak was occurring in spades in China.  

In order to believe that you got covid-19 in February, you need to believe that this virus was circulating without detection despite worldwide media coverage and that you were in the extremely tiny group of folks who got this in the super-early stages before it even registered on the health care system, which we know it does very rapidly.  In Bayesian terms, that is so incredibly unlikely as to be dismissed out of hand.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but if you thought you had the common cold or a mild case of the flu a month ago, it was about 99% the common cold or a mild case of the flu, both of which are super-common during that time of the year.  Specifically, you do not have C-19 antibodies and you should not behave as if you did.

Edit: At some point, some of you will undoubtedly test anti-body positive once such a test exists.  That will be because you caught the virus in the meantime and were asymptomatic.  Which is the case for 30% or so of the people who get this. That's way more likely that the "I got this before millions of others" scenario. 

 
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