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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (21 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
Penguin
Footballguy
Chemical X
Footballguy
i’ll know this is over when my local grocery store has TP on the shelves i guess. still not understanding this run on TP.
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
3 refrigerators 1 ice maker. I regert. Everything.
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
Have you ever had a really bad case of chap ###? Of course you have. Everyone has. It's what people fear more than death.
The General
Footballguy
Imagine an entire grocery store's allotment of food was in one aisle.
Everyone poops.
JAA
Footballguy
I was told, and I quote “it’s just a virus”Some info for the "I think I had this a few months ago" crowd, because this was already something I was curious about. Asked a local doc friend about their testing. (So of course, it could be different in different places, clinics, etc.) What I really wanted to know was how common it was for something to come back that wasn't identified on their respiratory screening test, which included (prior to Covid-19) several strains of influenza, pneumonia, and several (if not all) of the prior known strains of the coronavirus family, among other things. I was told that, prior to all this, they rarely tested for anything other than the flu, because the test that checks for everything else is expensive AND most insurances don't cover it. So, prior to this event at least, if other clinics operate in that same manner and you tested negative for the flu, you were probably told "it's just a virus." If that was in the last several months, it may or may not have been Covid-19.
the moops
Footballguy
I wonder how many of the people that hoarded TP have gone on with their life and now are wondering the same thing
Penguin
Footballguy
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
It was there in January. But it was one guy. He flew in on January 15th and didn’t get diagnosed until the 21st I believe.
shader
Footballguy
This isn’t surprising. For all the talk last week of “we probably have millions and millions of undiagnosed people”, the reality was that we weren’t at those numbers. We were at a very low percentage of the population with this disease.
So after a week of hoarding and quarantining, a general public that doesn’t believe this is a big deal anyway isn’t going to continue to quarantine. It’s easy to see this coming.
I hate to say it but we are literally going to need to see the overrun hospitals in New York and California for people to really freak out. And of course that will happen. Possibly as soon as the next 3-4 days.
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
Most people are working from home, best I can tell. It's not going to be cool but I think most are more compliant than not.
Penguin
Footballguy
facook
Footballguy
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
I remember being here on 9/11. We were all freaking out and rightfully so. It's easy to look back now and think "why was I freaking out, nobody is going to bomb the butter at Rite Aid" but there we were. My friends, my FBG family, shoot, brothers and sisters, be prepared and take recommended precautions. It will be alright. I promise. Spend time with your loved ones and get to really know them. That time grandpa held up the soda shop. All good stories. Don't dismiss them.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
Ok this thread moves fast, but here goes. I’ll start with my typical caveat that I’m not an epidemiologist, a scientist, a health care professional, or an expert of any kind. I’m a low level market research analyst with a basic grasp of data, but just an average joe.
There’s enough data now to support a classic Gaussian Bell curve which should be plotted by region by day. The U.S. is not a region. New York is an example of a region. As is Italy, Iran, Spain, France, Germany and Hubei (not China).
For the concept, the raw numbers aren’t as important as the trend. Raw numbers will be addressed later.
The first date on the plot of the bell curve should be when the significant deaths start. For New York, that was March 19th, and significant social distancing measures were employed March 21st.
All “numbers of days” are approximate and are provided for example purposes only.
The full run of the bell curve in countries that employed successful mitigation is 56 days, basically 8 weeks, with the peak coming in week 4 or week 5.
Essentially New York is looking at approximately 60 more days to go through the full bell curve, and 30-40 days until they bend the curve downward. There’s will be longer because we follow social distancing mitigation not so well.
So wherever you live (again state level), look at the dates when significant deaths start occurring, and when significant mitigation went into place. That will give you the start of the 8 week countdown and when the estimated peak will take place in week 4 or 5.
The raw numbers will be whatever they are. Hospital capacity, ICU beds and ventilators will be the horizontal line to stay under to not have the health system overrun. This should all be considered at the region level, in the U.S. it will be states. Different states will have different outcomes depending on the horizontal line and whether cases exceed the line or stay underneath it. (I predict Ohio will do well)
That’s not the best explanation by any means, so here’s the TL/DR:
Covid 19 impact follows a classic Bell curve
56 days in duration (approximately)
Peak of curve occurs at days 28-35 (approximately)
Assumes mitigation went into place around same time as significant deaths started
So please keep up the social distancing measures, and have a great night. Peace.
There’s enough data now to support a classic Gaussian Bell curve which should be plotted by region by day. The U.S. is not a region. New York is an example of a region. As is Italy, Iran, Spain, France, Germany and Hubei (not China).
For the concept, the raw numbers aren’t as important as the trend. Raw numbers will be addressed later.
The first date on the plot of the bell curve should be when the significant deaths start. For New York, that was March 19th, and significant social distancing measures were employed March 21st.
All “numbers of days” are approximate and are provided for example purposes only.
The full run of the bell curve in countries that employed successful mitigation is 56 days, basically 8 weeks, with the peak coming in week 4 or week 5.
Essentially New York is looking at approximately 60 more days to go through the full bell curve, and 30-40 days until they bend the curve downward. There’s will be longer because we follow social distancing mitigation not so well.
So wherever you live (again state level), look at the dates when significant deaths start occurring, and when significant mitigation went into place. That will give you the start of the 8 week countdown and when the estimated peak will take place in week 4 or 5.
The raw numbers will be whatever they are. Hospital capacity, ICU beds and ventilators will be the horizontal line to stay under to not have the health system overrun. This should all be considered at the region level, in the U.S. it will be states. Different states will have different outcomes depending on the horizontal line and whether cases exceed the line or stay underneath it. (I predict Ohio will do well)
That’s not the best explanation by any means, so here’s the TL/DR:
Covid 19 impact follows a classic Bell curve
56 days in duration (approximately)
Peak of curve occurs at days 28-35 (approximately)
Assumes mitigation went into place around same time as significant deaths started
So please keep up the social distancing measures, and have a great night. Peace.
TLEF316
Footballguy
Not shocking. Lots of employers (including mine) didn't really shut things down until last Monday. And NJ has a lot of NYC commuters.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
We are literally asking people if they’d like a cocktail or 10 to go, with their order. Bottle of wine? Growler? Whatevs...gotta make that cheddar.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
What am I, a clown to you?!!
Thanks for the info GB. Sobering.
Thanks for the info GB. Sobering.
facook
Footballguy
No disrespect man, but "fbg guy" is not "most people." Most people in this thread might be. But MOST PEOPLE are not 6 figure/year, can-work-from-home types. Most people include my wife, who is an hourly school district employee who doesn't know if she'll get another check in 2020. Which biases me. Most people are hourly, show up to work or get effed. I say that with no joy, but in mourning as someone who employs most people, and is related to most people.
the moops
Footballguy
And to not be too depressing with my furloughed post. I did manage to conjur up over 3000 masks for a local hospitaal here in the Twin Cities. My museum had about 2K, and friend at the U had 400 hundred or so, and I spent the day driving around picking up random amounts from friends that generally work in some sort of design/build/academic shop.
Most, but not all, are N95, but my biddy who is a nurse said they will take whatever they can get (this after he told me that his bosses recomend they buy a bandana or three to have on hand)
Most, but not all, are N95, but my biddy who is a nurse said they will take whatever they can get (this after he told me that his bosses recomend they buy a bandana or three to have on hand)
BassNBrew
Footballguy
-fish-
Footballguy
No. That's wrong. We had a doctor doing testing that was shut down by the CDC. She proved community transmission. This is information that is easily available and verifiable.
Penguin
Footballguy
When I checked a few days ago (probably last Friday) New Jersey had tested about 1/1oth the people California had and we were at 70% of their death rate, which we still are at.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
I agree that New York, especially downstate, will blow through their horizontal line. If you live here, and can avoid needing care in the next 30 days, do whatever you can to avoid it. Stay locked in alone if that’s what it takes.
Penguin
Footballguy
We were around an 80% positive rate compared to 10-15% for every other state which would indicate we were not testing at a high rate, only the really severe cases
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Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
I apologize if I upset you my friend. Sincerely. "I'm a FBG SO I'M RICH" has been a thing around here for a long time. I figure I'm not good at a lot of things but I'm happiest when I make people laugh. That's all it was.
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
-fish-
Footballguy
My town has literally announced that there are no patrols for DUI happening. I just don't know why people are driving around. Get drunk at home for god's sake.
shader
Footballguy
Yes Helen Chu. She performed the tests without CDC approval in late February.
But the original transmission in Washington was a man that flew in from Wuhan on January 15th. From there it spread and of course there was community transmission a month later.
Big League Chew
Footballguy
All the taphouses and restaurants here are bringing filled growlers to the car. I havnt left the house in over a week - kinda tempted but I have a ton of food I should probably eat.
Redwes25
Footballguy
NYC began social distancing before then. Schools were closed the 16th and even the week before it was getting quieter with lots less people traveling to work if they could.
shader
Footballguy
My circle of friends and family are taking it very seriously and for that I’m thankful. I can’t say the same for my workmates. I’m convinced if the ban on travel was lifted they’d be back at it 100% and angry at me when I told them I was doing all meetings remote.
-fish-
Footballguy
JaxBill
Footballguy
What about areas whose population is spread out and not tightly packed? Are you looking at a longer, flatter curve?
For instance, roughly half of cases in FL are in Dade/Broward. They're getting hit hard because of Spring Break and a more concentrated population.
Locally, here in Jacksonville, we've had relatively few cases but we're also spread out in the largest land mass of any city in the Lower 48. Our public transportation sucks. Downtown is almost nonexistent after work normally.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
I’m using the 100% non essential worker date as the beginning of mitigation. Again, all dates and numbers of days are approximate, but the concept has been borne out by the countries before us. (I called them regions because we should think of it on a state by state basis, the U.S. is not a homogeneous region)
tamales
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
Hey man we’ve always been on the same page, I’m not sure really what you’re getting at here. I think you may have your dates mixed up a bit. I’ve double-checked and everything I can find states that the first case from Wuhan came from a man that flew in on January 15th. If you can find earlier, please link me to it.
shader
Footballguy
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
It’s possible states will have multiple regions within the state. So northern Florida vs southern Florida could be considered 2 regions. The bell curve concept will still apply to both regions, but the raw numbers will be different in both regions. It would make sense that Jax will have lower raw numbers, but the duration of the curve and the timing of its peak will be what it is (all numbers of days approximate).
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
To go/take out. No one is rolling up on their donkey. The restaurant will take advantage of any revenue stream available
I get it, that people aren’t used to making their own food. But, I think restaurants, that are not take out only, should be closed. I get the concept of helping out small businesses. But if we are really going to follow cdc guidelines, shut it down.
Koya
Footballguy
Any number of bars and restaurants, including a few run by / tended by my friends are flat out doing adult lemonade stands.
They set up a table/tiki type portable bar with 6-12 bottles and what goes for a decent marg, tonic, or daq - mind you, some of these are some of the best cocktail minds and preparers in the region.
Trying anything to survive as a business and individually. Also, outside, and decent to good distancing.
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-fish-
Footballguy
By January 21 she proved community transmission. IK was saying it's not possible people were sick in February. He claims the math is impossible. This state more likely than not has 100s of thousands of undiagnosed cases. People that are in denial about scientific facts who are raging against lockdowns are the problem right now.
shader
Footballguy
Yes by Jan 21 he had definitely transmitted it.
But I think his point was that the vast majority of people didn’t have it in February. Yes there could be 100 thousand undocumented cases. Now. But not a month ago. That’s how the exponential math works.
