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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (10 Viewers)

It's been 11 days, but I absolutely must get into Manhattan tomorrow or no one gets paid. I'm not sure what to expect, and I certainly don't want to go, but I'll send my report after I return tomorrow.  I'm confident (hoping?) I can do it with zero human contact, and that in itself will be a strange thing in midtown. 

 
Koya said:
Any number of bars and restaurants, including a few run by / tended by my friends are flat out doing adult lemonade stands. 
 

They set up a table/tiki type portable bar with 6-12 bottles and what goes for a decent marg, tonic, or daq - mind you, some of these are some of the best cocktail minds and preparers in the region.   

Trying anything to survive as a business and individually.  Also, outside, and decent to good distancing.
 
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Good and bad, like most things.  I'm all for it , but there are downsides  

I’m just trying to weather the storm. I know people in my restaurant, are going to really freak out, money wise, in about 2 weeks.   I’m good for a while, but how long?

 
JaxBill said:
What about areas whose population is spread out and not tightly packed? Are you looking at a longer, flatter curve?

For instance, roughly half of cases in FL are in Dade/Broward.  They're getting hit hard because of Spring Break and a more concentrated population. 

Locally, here in Jacksonville, we've had relatively few cases but we're also spread out in the largest land mass of any city in the Lower 48. Our public transportation sucks. Downtown is almost nonexistent after work normally. 
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Grace Under Pressure said:
It’s possible states will have multiple regions within the state. So northern Florida vs southern  Florida could be considered 2 regions. The bell curve concept will still apply to both regions, but the raw numbers will be different in both regions. It would make sense that Jax will have lower raw numbers, but the duration of the curve and the timing of its peak will be what it is (all numbers of days approximate).
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I would add your local officials should be assessing their hospital bed, ICU and ventilator capacity, as well as their PPE equipment supply. If they can keep the raw caseload of hospitalizations below the horizontal line of capacity, they will be in better shape and not overrun their health care capacity. This will be the factor that will determine a successful response vs. a catastrophe. Downstate N.Y. is headed toward a catastrophe.

 
DA RAIDERS said:
Good and bad, like most things.  I'm all for it , but there are downsides  

I’m just trying to weather the storm. I know people in my restaurant, are going to really freak out, money wise, in about 2 weeks.   I’m good for a while, but how long?
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I hear ya gb. Many of my friends have literally no idea what they are going to do... 90% of their jobs are done.  For those lucky 10%, who essentially make a decent living but almost all off tips (other than GMs and managers), it’s taking any and every little bit.

Scary how this will decorate and forever reshape the hospitality industry. From servers who just give up on their bills to all and medium sized businesses... some Generations in the making... who go belly up, to the entire cruise ship industry. Just don’t see how we get through this without a tremendous amount of destruction, arbitrage, and loss.

 
Prepare to get this. Perhaps there's greater infection rates for certain age groups, people whose immune system is compromised, people who are in dense areas, but this is not disappearing. You have a better than good chance to get this, as do I. 

Question is, under what conditions do you want it? I would have preferred to get it 4 weeks ago than 4 weeks from now. That's why I'm staying the F indoors. If I'm very lucky, I don't get it at all. If I'm a little lucky, I get it in the summer on the back end of the curve.

 
Nick Vermeil said:
It's been 11 days, but I absolutely must get into Manhattan tomorrow or no one gets paid. I'm not sure what to expect, and I certainly don't want to go, but I'll send my report after I return tomorrow.  I'm confident (hoping?) I can do it with zero human contact, and that in itself will be a strange thing in midtown. 
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How are you getting there? Can you drive your car?

 
JaxBill said:
What about areas whose population is spread out and not tightly packed? Are you looking at a longer, flatter curve?

For instance, roughly half of cases in FL are in Dade/Broward.  They're getting hit hard because of Spring Break and a more concentrated population. 

Locally, here in Jacksonville, we've had relatively few cases but we're also spread out in the largest land mass of any city in the Lower 48. Our public transportation sucks. Downtown is almost nonexistent after work normally. 
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We are going to learn a tremendous amount about how these epidemics spread with much data and life transparency these days.

But, that’s an afterthought. 
 

Common logic says more spread out the populations the better the scenario. I’m not sure it’s so simple. 
 

To me, it’s about how proactive and area is about stopping human contact. While you think there is more necessary contact in a dense city, I wonder. For one, its easier to shelter in place in a city because so many businesses are close to you... easier to get delivered. And, many restaurants are more depending on delivery, because of their innate proximity than the burbs, hence more prepared.  In addition, when you HAVE to leave quarantine or isolation in a city, you go to the corner bodega and 70% or more of what you need is there. A small corner store where a limited amount of traffic passes through, and many of those the same folks who reside in that neighborhood.

The burbs or exurbs where people are spread out? Whether it’s a far busier gas station/convenience store or more likely, the big box Walmart or target or Grocery store everyone from miles around, different towns and communities all descending open the same enclosed breeding ground for mass spread.

We see that density doesn’t mean more illness in Singapore... it’s really about how well an entire area isolates it appears. And, as noted above, a few walkable city blocks might provide a less exposure prone reality than having to get in a car to a regional center for shopping and congregating.

 
shader said:
Yes by Jan 21 he had definitely transmitted it.

But I think his point was that the vast majority of  people didn’t have it in February.  Yes there could be 100 thousand undocumented cases.  Now.  But not a month ago. That’s how the exponential math works.
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That was one data point.  The point of her research was it was already here.  If there was one, there were more.   She didn't just find one.  She was re-testing the flu tests she had available.   She was told to shut it down instead.   We hit 100,000 infected a month ago.  We just don't know it.   There were people infected in February.  That's a fact.   IK is just wrong claiming that asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic people couldn't have had it in February.  To the contrary, that's more likely than not.

 
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Koya said:
I hear ya gb. Many of my friends have literally no idea what they are going to do... 90% of their jobs are done.  For those lucky 10%, who essentially make a decent living but almost all off tips (other than GMs and managers), it’s taking any and every little bit.

Scary how this will decorate and forever reshape the hospitality industry. From servers who just give up on their bills to all and medium sized businesses... some Generations in the making... who go belly up, to the entire cruise ship industry. Just don’t see how we get through this without a tremendous amount of destruction, arbitrage, and loss.
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I’ve honestly got my head in the sand.  what comes, will come. I know this will flat out ruin some businesses, as well as a lot of people.  I keep checking on one of the guys I work with. He’s 6 months sober, and has lived by the seat of his pants, his entire life. He’s a GREAT guy, and I really want him to come out of this.  Sober, with a place to live, and a job. None of these things are a guarantee.  Scary times. 

 
Sandeman said:
Prepare to get this. Perhaps there's greater infection rates for certain age groups, people whose immune system is compromised, people who are in dense areas, but this is not disappearing. You have a better than good chance to get this, as do I. 

Question is, under what conditions do you want it? I would have preferred to get it 4 weeks ago than 4 weeks from now. That's why I'm staying the F indoors. If I'm very lucky, I don't get it at all. If I'm a little lucky, I get it in the summer on the back end of the curve.
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I’m not preparing to get this because I am literally not leaving my house. 

 
People need to understand that there is a point where the economic impact will cost more lives than the virus itself.  Just "shut it down for a month" people are as ignorant as the "it's just a flu" people.

This is a massively complex situation and the ability to calculate the impact of all of the macro decisions is simply impossible.

There is no simple solution and there is no "right" answer.  Decisions aren't made in a vacuum and every governmental order will have consequences and will negatively effect society to the point of causing death rates to rise.  And often that means a younger healthier population than the virus will kill.

 
Sandeman said:
Prepare to get this. Perhaps there's greater infection rates for certain age groups, people whose immune system is compromised, people who are in dense areas, but this is not disappearing. You have a better than good chance to get this, as do I. 

Question is, under what conditions do you want it? I would have preferred to get it 4 weeks ago than 4 weeks from now. That's why I'm staying the F indoors. If I'm very lucky, I don't get it at all. If I'm a little lucky, I get it in the summer on the back end of the curve.
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I'd rather get it now.

 
So my mom's check was cashed! How the hell is this possible when ID is required to cash checks or your name has ti be on the check? 

Mom went to her bank to find out wtf. They investigated and saw the check. This dude wrote his name above mine and put "or". He practiced enough that his handwriting looks like mom's. He signed the back of the check and it was cashed. So since it's legal to cash such checks, mom's hosed in getting her money back. So now she needs to shut down that account and open a new one. I told her to open 2. 1 for social security and medicare to be used only for receiving stuff and a second for everything else. Turns out there are a lot of theft going on with the mail. So I told my parents no sending checks even after this is over. There are sister banks to my credit union that they can directly deposit to my account. 

I'm so angry. My poor mom was out when she should be in, in WA state! I figure the dude either works for the post office or lives in my apt complex. Our mailboxes weren't broken into so that's out. So tomorrow I'm going to the apt office. Mom sent me a photo of the check. I kept my usps informed delivery email too showing it did pass through the scan there. Due to privacy they won't tell me but at least they can take action. Then I'll go to USPS and do the same. Mom's afraid he'll come after me but I'm the type you #### with my family and I'm coming after you. He stole from and elderly lady and caused her to be out of her house possibly exposing herself. 

I googled his name. Dude is in my area and has a record for theft and other things. So yeah. I can't not try and get justice for her. Hopefully he pays somehow. MF  :censored:

 
Jayrod said:
People need to understand that there is a point where the economic impact will cost more lives than the virus itself.  Just "shut it down for a month" people are as ignorant as the "it's just a flu" people.
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And "There is a point where the economic impact will cost more lives than the virus" people are just as ignorant as "Just shut it down for a month" people and "It's just a flu" people.

 
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Sheriff Bart said:
I apologize if I upset you my friend. Sincerely. "I'm a FBG SO I'M RICH" has been a thing around here for a long time.  I figure I'm not good at a lot of things but I'm happiest when I make people laugh. That's all it was.
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Sheriff Bart said:
Sorry again. :(
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Nah.  I love you.  I over-reacted.  Honestly, I've been quarantining in this dammed thread too much.  I hate everyone here more than my wife hates me at this point.

I need a break.  Not your fault gb.  No one to blame but my over-served self.  

 
shuke said:
W.  T.   F.
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I dont think that article is entirely accurate. A few issues I see there. The study didn't actually make a claim that the "virus survived".

In fact if you see in the article it actually modified the statement and parsed the quote. 

The virus “was identified on a variety of surfaces in cabins of both symptomatic and asymptomatic infected passengers up to 17 days after cabins were vacated on the Diamond Princess but before disinfection procedures had been conducted,”
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They say "the virus" the report actually says 

SARS-CoV-2 RNA was identified on a variety of surfaces in cabins of both symptomatic and asymptomatic infected passengers up to 17 days after cabins were vacated on the Diamond Princess but before disinfection procedures had been conducted 
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Viral RNA does not mean "The virus" (aka it doesn't mean contagious). 

It also seems like it wasn't actually a controlled part of the study, as it appears to only be documented as a personal communication. 

It also flies in the face of what we know of how the virus spread on the ship.

 
CurlyNight said:
So my mom's check was cashed! How the hell is this possible when ID is required to cash checks or your name has ti be on the check? 

Mom went to her bank to find out wtf. They investigated and saw the check. This dude wrote his name above mine and put "or". He practiced enough that his handwriting looks like mom's. He signed the back of the check and it was cashed. So since it's legal to cash such checks, mom's hosed in getting her money back. So now she needs to shut down that account and open a new one. I told her to open 2. 1 for social security and medicare to be used only for receiving stuff and a second for everything else. Turns out there are a lot of theft going on with the mail. So I told my parents no sending checks even after this is over. There are sister banks to my credit union that they can directly deposit to my account. 

I'm so angry. My poor mom was out when she should be in, in WA state! I figure the dude either works for the post office or lives in my apt complex. Our mailboxes weren't broken into so that's out. So tomorrow I'm going to the apt office. Mom sent me a photo of the check. I kept my usps informed delivery email too showing it did pass through the scan there. Due to privacy they won't tell me but at least they can take action. Then I'll go to USPS and do the same. Mom's afraid he'll come after me but I'm the type you #### with my family and I'm coming after you. He stole from and elderly lady and caused her to be out of her house possibly exposing herself. 

I googled his name. Dude is in my area and has a record for theft and other things. So yeah. I can't not try and get justice for her. Hopefully he pays somehow. MF  :censored:
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The bank is giving misleading information to your mom. Your mom needs to file a police report and then take it to the bank (brohan). If they won't reimburse her at that point, then she needs to file a lawsuit, or at least threaten one.

She also needs to stop using this bank.

 
Ya know as far as individual liberty and all, everyone is able to completely self isolate if they want to.    And they'll be safe.    No one else in the country has to, and you'd still be safe.  

 
[scooter] said:
The bank is giving misleading information to your mom. Your mom needs to file a police report and then take it to the bank (brohan). If they won't reimburse her at that point, then she needs to file a lawsuit, or at least threaten one.

She also needs to stop using this bank.
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It's legal for 2 names to be on the check as an or. The handwriting is is just like hers. The check was for 350. Not enough to put the police on it to ask her to do anything further imo. And an elderly person or even some of us would have just gone straight to the bank to find out what happened.  She's exhausted. But I'm going to try and get him by telling my apt and usps here what happened in case the #### lives here or works there. 

 
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CurlyNight said:
It's legal for 2 names to be on the check as an or. The handwriting is is just like hers. The check was for 350. Not enough to put the police on it to ask her to do anything further imo. And an elderly person or even some of us would have just gone straight to the bank to find out what happened.  She's exhausted. But I'm going to try and get him by telling my apt and usps here what happened in case the #### lives here or works there. 
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You have his name and address ?

 
CurlyNight said:
[scooter] said:
The bank is giving misleading information to your mom. Your mom needs to file a police report and then take it to the bank (brohan). If they won't reimburse her at that point, then she needs to file a lawsuit, or at least threaten one.

She also needs to stop using this bank.
Click to expand...
It's legal for 2 names to be on the check as an or. The handwriting is is just like hers. The check was for 350. Not enough to put the police on it to ask her to do anything further imo. And an elderly person or even some of us would have just gone straight to the bank to find out what happened.  She's exhausted. But I'm going to try and get him by telling my apt and usps here what happened in case the #### lives here or works there. 
Click to expand...
It's true that it's legal for 2 names to be on a check.....but it's illegal for one of those names to be forged. That's why the bank was giving misleading information.

It doesn't matter if the handwriting looks similar. The check is forged, period.

The police department should have a non-emergency department for these exact situations. Give them the basic info, then bring a copy of the report to the bank. It's not about getting the police to investigate (which they probably won't do); it's about having a copy of the report to show to the bank manager. That report is your magic ticket to getting $350.

Not sure why you're putting up so much resistance to this.

 
Koya said:
I hear ya gb. Many of my friends have literally no idea what they are going to do... 90% of their jobs are done.  For those lucky 10%, who essentially make a decent living but almost all off tips (other than GMs and managers), it’s taking any and every little bit.

Scary how this will decorate and forever reshape the hospitality industry. From servers who just give up on their bills to all and medium sized businesses... some Generations in the making... who go belly up, to the entire cruise ship industry. Just don’t see how we get through this without a tremendous amount of destruction, arbitrage, and loss.
Click to expand...
Is arbitrage necessarily bad? Seems mean to lump it with destruction and loss. 

 
I'm headed to Austin Seafood for a commercial seafood pickup tomorrow. If you or @Mr. Ham or @bentley or @kevzilla or other NW Austin nerds want me to pickup something for them, I will. @Sigmund Bloom or other NW Austinites, too

I'll call in the order and pay over the phone. The will bring out and load in the back of my truck when I text them I am there.

If any of you guys want anything, PM me with your email and I will send over the product list.

 I will then leave it on my porch for you to pickup. You can leave the $$ on the porch.

 
[scooter] said:
It's true that it's legal for 2 names to be on a check.....but it's illegal for one of those names to be forged. That's why the bank was giving misleading information.

It doesn't matter if the handwriting looks similar. The check is forged, period.

The police department should have a non-emergency department for these exact situations. Give them the basic info, then bring a copy of the report to the bank. It's not about getting the police to investigate (which they probably won't do); it's about having a copy of the report to show to the bank manager. That report is your magic ticket to getting $350.

Not sure why you're putting up so much resistance to this.
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I don't want my mom to leave the house again. I told her to call the police to report it. Maybe she can just send the photo to them. She's not responding to this which usually means no. She's scared this dude knows where I live, afterall my address was on the envelope. And to boot, my name is my license plate if he'd like to indirectly get to me. But I don't care. I'm going to do my part to try and get him. Mess with my fam and I'll come after you.

 
CurlyNight said:
I don't want my mom to leave the house again. I told her to call the police to report it. Maybe she can just send the photo to them. She's not responding to this which usually means no. She's scared this dude knows where I live, afterall my address was on the envelope. And to boot, my name is my license plate if he'd like to indirectly get to me. But I don't care. I'm going to do my part to try and get him. Mess with my fam and I'll come after you.
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You're kind of sexy when you get all riled up.

How you doin?

 
[scooter] said:
It's true that it's legal for 2 names to be on a check.....but it's illegal for one of those names to be forged. That's why the bank was giving misleading information.

It doesn't matter if the handwriting looks similar. The check is forged, period.

The police department should have a non-emergency department for these exact situations. Give them the basic info, then bring a copy of the report to the bank. It's not about getting the police to investigate (which they probably won't do); it's about having a copy of the report to show to the bank manager. That report is your magic ticket to getting $350.

Not sure why you're putting up so much resistance to this.
Click to expand...
I sent her what you wrote. Thanks

 
CurlyNight said:
[scooter] said:
It's true that it's legal for 2 names to be on a check.....but it's illegal for one of those names to be forged. That's why the bank was giving misleading information.

It doesn't matter if the handwriting looks similar. The check is forged, period.

The police department should have a non-emergency department for these exact situations. Give them the basic info, then bring a copy of the report to the bank. It's not about getting the police to investigate (which they probably won't do); it's about having a copy of the report to show to the bank manager. That report is your magic ticket to getting $350.

Not sure why you're putting up so much resistance to this.
Click to expand...
I don't want my mom to leave the house again. I told her to call the police to report it. Maybe she can just send the photo to them. She's not responding to this which usually means no. She's scared this dude knows where I live, afterall my address was on the envelope. And to boot, my name is my license plate if he'd like to indirectly get to me. But I don't care. I'm going to do my part to try and get him. Mess with my fam and I'll come after you.
Click to expand...
Your mom doesn't have to leave the house. Call the police. Have them mail her a copy of the report. Call the bank. Send them a copy of the report. Get $350.

It really is that easy.

And it's a lot safer than taking the law into your own hands.

 
[scooter] said:
Your mom doesn't have to leave the house. Call the police. Have them mail her a copy of the report. Call the bank. Send them a copy of the report. Get $350.

It really is that easy.

And it's a lot safer than taking the law into your own hands.
Click to expand...
I texted her what you said. But I still want this guy reported.

 
Jayrod said:
People need to understand that there is a point where the economic impact will cost more lives than the virus itself.  Just "shut it down for a month" people are as ignorant as the "it's just a flu" people.

This is a massively complex situation and the ability to calculate the impact of all of the macro decisions is simply impossible.

There is no simple solution and there is no "right" answer.  Decisions aren't made in a vacuum and every governmental order will have consequences and will negatively effect society to the point of causing death rates to rise.  And often that means a younger healthier population than the virus will kill.
Click to expand...
Bull crap.  imho.

You are repeating Larry Kudlow, verbatim.

 
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BigSteelThrill said:
Stick with the scientist, not the market profiteers.
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And people are very welcome to stick to whoever they want.    If you don't leave your house except to buy toilet paper, wipe down and disinfect every time you do, you will be perfectly fine.    Other people are willing to take their chances.

 
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