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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread


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7 minutes ago, JAA said:

Deaths is the only real data.  Well, that and the stock market.  Both are (should be) trailing indicators.  Testing should be a leading indicator but IMHO it cant be trusted right now.

Not even deaths. I’d contend quite a few people are going to die from this that will never get a positive test. 

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1 hour ago, Jayrod said:

No, there is a point where the death graph lines will cross, that is a fact as well.

I'm sure that is true, but when? I don't pretend to know the answer, but it's disconcerting we're barely into a partial, non-lockdown and people are already talking about lifting it.

Why are other countries willing to risk quarantining large swaths of their population to contain the pandemic?

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52 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

The population of Lombardy is about 10MM people.

If you look at the comparison here it's difficult to see how NYC gets out of this with fewer than 5-10k fatalities.  And to limit it to that we'd have to more or less shut it down completely in the next few days.

God I hope you are right.  We will see how the next week goes, but as stated earlier it takes many weeks once things get shut down to truly flatten.

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I think I see where Jayrod is coming from.  I can't speak for him but I understand him as saying that there will be many, many deaths as a result from this shut down that aren't directly caused by the coronavirus, correct?

I definitely agree.  I stated in another post about an economist estimating roughly 40,000 lives saved in China when they shut down their factories for a few weeks/months to fight the coronavirus.  The decrease in pollution (which was visible to the eye) is what saved these lives.  It's these "X" factors that aren't being considered.

Here in the US, you're going to have more suicides, more people not going to the hospital for other illnesses, etc. that will result in whole lot of deaths.  These deaths will be damn near impossible to populate.

So yeah, don't knock Jayrod too much.

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51 minutes ago, shader said:

I'm getting strong vibes that this country is about to deal with a "go back to work" problem.Trump's comments, the TX governor's comments, messages on forums/social media about people's jobs and livelihoods.  At this point the death numbers don't merit the economic shutdown in the eyes of many people that aren't educated on the subject.  If this country goes back to work, things here will be many times worse than Italy.

 

I agree with your assessment.  Im optimistic this is just a stalling function.  Meaning, a week from now we will have much more mortality numbers.  If they are still doubling every 1-2 days I cant imagine they lift it.  At that point, they will have the data needed to say "We cant lift it due to the mortality rate, look".

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8 minutes ago, Capella said:

Not even deaths. I’d contend quite a few people are going to die from this that will never get a positive test. 

Quite a few people have already died from it that weren’t identified as covid deaths. The US is as guilty as China and Iran when it comes to under reporting numbers.   Part of the reason why we don’t “have tests” this many weeks into this thing is because there are a lot of powerful people that don’t want us to know the full scope of the pandemic here.  In Iran—doctors are getting told to not record the cause of death as being covid by the government —and if they do—they face extreme punishment.  

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43 minutes ago, Jayrod said:

What about the people who die from the poor economy?  People die as a direct result of poverty, not just because people are jerks.

And it CANNOT be brought back to life "anytime".

Yes - what about them?  What are you recommending?

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34 minutes ago, Jayrod said:

What projection? I've made none.

With all due respect Jayrod, you have.  You said the economic impact will kill more people than the virus.  I hope you are not trolling.

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19 minutes ago, JAA said:

I disagree.  He is not making arguments.  He is stating opinions as facts and I think that is a bad idea.  We are still in a data gathering phase.  We dont know where we are in the curve as it was pointed out last night.

I think there is good discussion in there, but again - the statements are made as facts.

nearly everything in this thread that people are stating is opinion in one way or another.

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10 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

With all due respect Jayrod was the one being attacked after presenting a very solid point.  BigSteelThrill is the one who needs to tone it down.

Everyone, please drop this line of arguing. We need to help each other here. Thanks.

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Anymore word on checks being mailed? I feel selfish wondering but we are going to be in big trouble here real soon if I don't pull in some cash soon. I always wanted to have some kind of financial safety net but it just was not in the cards for us. Dave Ramsey always made it sound so easy.

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35 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Sure, but there's a huge difference between saying "Somebody, somewhere will be dealt a royal flush on their next hand" and "I will be dealt a royal flush on my next hand."  The first statement has an extremely high probability of being true.  The second has an extremely low probability of being true.  They are not in the same universe of probability.

I agree.  So even though there is a low chance of me having CV, there is a high probability that a significant number of US based people had it back in Jan/Feb.

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22 minutes ago, Capella said:

Not even deaths. I’d contend quite a few people are going to die from this that will never get a positive test. 

I agree with that, but Id bet it was less than 10% extra

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1 hour ago, Ksquared said:

 The crowd that wants to shut it all down needs to quantify what has to happen to allow the releasing of society.  

The Doctors and Scientist, including their overriding organizations, including those geared specifically towards global health and pandemics were the lead on the shut it all down.

Not just a crowd. 

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6 minutes ago, prosopis said:

Anymore word on checks being mailed? I feel selfish wondering but we are going to be in big trouble here real soon if I don't pull in some cash soon. I always wanted to have some kind of financial safety net but it just was not in the cards for us. Dave Ramsey always made it sound so easy.

hang in there brother - lots more people are gonna be in your situation shortly, unfortunately. My hope is the political wrangling around an aid package becomes understood to be unimportant soon and something positive happens for you and others struggling due to this.

Edited by Possum
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For those saying that if we don't restart our economy soon, lots of people are going to die as a result of the drop in the economy, please take this downtime you have to watch the movie Schindler's List. Please pay specific attention to how many lives were saved by a wealthy man becoming less wealthy, and how sad he was when he realized he could have saved even more if he had been willing to become even less wealthy. Being the richest nation in the world, we should be able to come out of this crisis in better shape than any other country. But because of our wealth distribution, we will come out of it worse than other counties... unless the wealthy are willing to let it go. It is ridiculous to suggest that the better solution is to restart the economy when we know it's going to cause more deaths due to the virus, when really all that does is let the rich keep their wealth.

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9 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:
20 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

With all due respect Jayrod was the one being attacked after presenting a very solid point.  BigSteelThrill is the one who needs to tone it down.

Everyone, please drop this line of arguing. We need to help each other here. Thanks.

Is it OK to continue the cost/benefits discussion in this thread instead?  It seems worth discussing but maybe it's hijacking this thread a bit. 

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2 minutes ago, Politician Spock said:

For those saying that if we don't restart our economy soon, lots of people are going to die as a result of the drop in the economy, please take this downtime you have to watch the movie Schindler's List. Please pay specific attention to how many lives were saved by a wealthy man becoming less wealthy, and how sad he was when he realized he could have saved even more if he had been willing to become even less wealthy. Being the richest nation in the world, we should be able to come out of this crisis in better shape than any other country. But because of our wealth distribution, we will come out of it worse than other counties... unless the wealthy are willing to let it go. It is ridiculous to suggest that the better solution is to restart the economy when we know it's going to cause more deaths due to the virus, when really all that does is let the rich keep their wealth.

Keeping the economy going has to do with keeping unemployment numbers at a reasonable level not letting the rich keep their wealth.  Much of the country lives paycheck to paycheck and those are the ones getting laid off right now.  Trying to make a comparison to Schindler's list...I have no words.

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Just now, Sneegor said:

Yeah I don't think you understand the argument for restarting the economy.  It is not just for the rich it is for the low and middle class.  Unemployment will skyrocket, poverty will increase, suicides and other poverty related deaths will go up substantially.  The rich in this scenario will be just fine.  

I think you missed the entire point of my post.

:sadbanana:

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1 minute ago, dgreen said:

For a while, we've been saying "We need to test!" And that's true. But at what point do we say "We are testing!" I believe there were over 60,000 tests yesterday. Does that qualify as "We are testing"?

 

Personally, I consider "we are testing" when anyone with symptoms can walk in and get a test. Just my opinion. 

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3 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

Yeah I don't think you understand the argument for restarting the economy.  It is not just for the rich it is for the low and middle class.  Unemployment will skyrocket, poverty will increase, suicides and other poverty related deaths will go up substantially.  The rich in this scenario will be just fine.  

Restaring the economy = more deaths from the virus and the rich get to remain being rich

Keeping the economy stalled = less deaths from the virus, and the rich who will be just fine even with a stalled economy can keep us from avoiding economic deaths with their generosity (Schindler). 

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2 hours ago, mr roboto said:

Also, deaths are a lagging indicator reflecting cases that happened 7 to 14 days before the patient died. How are we ever going to have an accurate mortality rate if we never really knew how many people actually contracted the virus?

Same way it is done for almost every widespread infectious disease -- by sampling. Mortality rates for pretty much any disease are generally well-supported estimates.

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42 minutes ago, Politician Spock said:

If 70% of the US population gets infected with the virus, then 0.4% is a million people.

So if the death rate of the virus is 1.2%, then 3 million Americans die. 

I'm not sure if it's a statement on public education, people just being hard headed or some combination of the two but simple math seems to have escaped a good many people these days. There are a lot of folks acting like because we live in America, our numbers will be different. They won't, no matter how much somebody in a position of power says they will. I'm confident the only way we change the trajectory of this thing is full lock down and soon. Might be too late for NYC already.

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57 minutes ago, Terminalxylem said:

No, SARS-CoV-2 acutely depresses total lymphocyte count in a subset of patients. This includes both CD4 and CD8 T cells. The mechanism of this decrease is unclear, but transient lymphopenia is not uncommon in severe infection of just about any cause, including bacteria and other viruses.

HIV infects macrophages and CD4+ lymphocytes directly, and gradually kills them off over a period of years. In contrast, CD8+ cells increase in early infection, but tank in later disease. Concomitantly, B cells are activated and there is a paradoxical hypergammaglobulinemia, but humoral immune response is decreased. "Cytokine storm" is not a feature of HIV disease.

AFIK, the only commonality is decease in lymphocyte count, but the mechanism, duration and extent of immune involvement of the two viruses are otherwise quite different. And to be clear, a lot of infections transiently decrease lymphocyte counts.

What other common characteristics does SARS-CoV-2 share with HIV? I know the the drug you're promoting targets CCR5, which is a co-receptor for HIV. There were early reports that SARS-CoV-2 also involves that receptor, but I thought they were debunked.

Though I've not seen this comparison made, I was thinking SARS-CoV-2 immunology was potentially more like dengue. Dengue causes decreases in cell counts, and has a hyperimmune phenomenon like the "cytokine storm" described in COVID-19. This results from re-infection with a second dengue strain, due to cross reacting antibodies - is it possible people who experience the "cytokine storm" have an overzealous immune response from prior, non-COVID coronavirus infection?

Check your PMs.  I should have much more detailed info later this week from patient data that we are processing as we speak.  I have been told that the CD4 suppression in COVID-19 victims is similar to the low CD4 count in AIDS patients.  This is from someone who spent much of his career studying HIV and was also the director of virology at a major university hospital system.  You correctly point out that I am by no means an expert in this area but passing info from people who are directly involved in the treatment of some of the most severe COVID-19 cases is something that I think could be useful.  

I will posit your theory about the previous infection being the cause of the cytokine storm but it does appear to be a vicious circle with lung infection being met with an immune response which does further damage and brings further immune response eventually leading to ARDS.  

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3 minutes ago, Cjw_55106 said:

Personally, I consider "we are testing" when anyone with symptoms can walk in and get a test. Just my opinion. 

Makes sense. What would tell us that? News reports? Is there data that can help determine when that might be?

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If 1m people die from this over the next year, how will that hurt the economy more than what we are doing now? I'm not suggesting we should value the economy over lives, just asking the question. Because I keep seeing people say this and I just don't see how losing 0.3% of our population kills our economy.

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1 hour ago, shader said:

At some point an accurate mortality rate is secondary in nature to what this virus does. It overwhelms hospitals and causes the mortality rate (whatever that might be) to skyrocket 

And not just the mortality rate of COVID skyrockets, either. In an overwhelmed health system ... mortality rate of everything increases. Heart attacks. Strokes. Cancer. Accidents. A slew of other bacterial and viral infections. You name it.

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3 minutes ago, Capella said:

When analyzing data 10% is an enormous amount.  

Agree if we get to +100k.  Today im not sure its huge.  I think it will be statistically significant once we get to the end of the peak because we will know the ultimate magnitude of our curve.

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Could someone pm me and explain to me how to do the face to face thing on a Samsung 50. My wife's oncologist is no longer doing office visits but doing it face to face on the phone. I have absolutely no clue how to do this. I have until tomorrow to figure it out.

Edited by rustycolts
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We have more than enough toilet paper in this country to make it through this crisis even with a stalled economy. The problem is the toilet paper distribution is skewed due to people hoarding much more toilet paper than they need.

We have more than enough wealth in this country to make it through this crisis even with a stalled economy. The problem is the wealth distribution is skewed due to people hoarding much more wealth than they need.

The solution to both problems is the end of the hoarding. 

Edited by Politician Spock
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2 minutes ago, Politician Spock said:

We have more than enough toilet paper in this country to make it through this crisis even with a stalled economy. The problem is the toilet paper distribution is skewed due to people hoarding much more toilet paper than they need.

We have more than enough wealth in this country to make it through this crisis even with a stalled economy. The problem is the wealth distribution is skewed due to people hoarding much more wealth than they need.

The solution to both problems is the end the hoarding. 

Unfortunately this is never going to change and uneven wealth distribution is hardly unique to the United States. 

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4 minutes ago, dgreen said:
8 minutes ago, Cjw_55106 said:

Personally, I consider "we are testing" when anyone with symptoms can walk in and get a test. Just my opinion. 

Makes sense. What would tell us that? News reports? Is there data that can help determine when that might be?

Maybe one indicator would be that our positive/(positive+negative) rate drops because that would show that we are testing so many people that we aren't as picky about who we test?

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4 minutes ago, rustycolts said:

Could someone pm me and explain to me how to do the face to face thing on a Samsung 50. My wife's oncologist is no longer doing office visits but doing it face to face on the phone. I have absolutely no clue how to do this. I have until tomorrow to figure it out.

https://www.verizonwireless.com/support/knowledge-base-225321/

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8 minutes ago, tamales said:

If 1m people die from this over the next year, how will that hurt the economy more than what we are doing now? I'm not suggesting we should value the economy over lives, just asking the question. Because I keep seeing people say this and I just don't see how losing 0.3% of our population kills our economy.

Is this a serious question?

What did 9/11 due to our economy?  How many people died at 9/11?

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5 minutes ago, Politician Spock said:

We have more than enough toilet paper in this country to make it through this crisis even with a stalled economy. The problem is the toilet paper distribution is skewed due to people hoarding much more toilet paper than they need.

We have more than enough wealth in this country to make it through this crisis even with a stalled economy. The problem is the wealth distribution is skewed due to people hoarding much more wealth than they need.

The solution to both problems is the end of the hoarding. 

Awesome analogy - thank you

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5 minutes ago, rustycolts said:

Could someone pm me and explain to me how to do the face to face thing on a Samsung 50. My wife's oncologist is no longer doing office visits but doing it face to face on the phone. I have absolutely no clue how to do this. I have until tomorrow to figure it out.

I don’t know either rusty. Google your question and you’ll get your answer for sure 

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15 minutes ago, dgreen said:

For a while, we've been saying "We need to test!" And that's true. But at what point do we say "We are testing!" I believe there were over 60,000 tests yesterday. Does that qualify as "We are testing"?

Better I guess but still woefully behind were we need to be.

12 minutes ago, Cjw_55106 said:

Personally, I consider "we are testing" when anyone with symptoms can walk in and get a test. Just my opinion. 

This is "we are testing" :goodposting:

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5 minutes ago, Politician Spock said:

We have more than enough toilet paper in this country to make it through this crisis even with a stalled economy. The problem is the toilet paper distribution is skewed due to people hoarding much more toilet paper than they need.

See, these are the things that really chap me during these times. Toilet paper distribution. You see videos of store workers just rolling out a pallet of toilet paper amid the masses.

Why can't they just have the toilet paper in the back somewhere, like where those swinging doors are near the back of the store. Position a table in front of that door and have people line up for one pack of toilet paper. Or two. Whatever the size is. Maybe each shopper gets 8 rolls of toilet paper per visit. Whatever.

So simple.

 

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