Redwes25
Footballguy
I hope it works but since they were giving this to people back in China in January I doubt it is some sort of miracle cure. Of course, that is why the WHO has set up trials on it.
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (11 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Yes you jerk. I'm trying to find something with the exact study findings, not just an article that mentions them. What I linked last week were the actual studies on shared drives.
the moops
Footballguy
I don't know the math, but I imagine a decent percentage of ventilators they already have are in use
the moops
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
That's interesting, because Alabama instituted restrictions on the day the first case was detected here. Our state leadership has been much quicker than just about any other state as far as locking things down. Alabama was one of the last to present a case, so you should likely compare our numbers from a week from now to NY today. Or something similar.
You have the data right, but you're interpreting it a bit wrong here, GB.
Also interesting to note that the increases shown in AL are in very low population counties. The urban areas have seen a decrease. Traffic in Bham is definitely down now.
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Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
@MTskibum Here's a start. It's a link which details the findings in Nature. Still looking for more direct links and shared docs but this includes some specific details...
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/17/an-effective-treatment-for-coronavirus-covid-19-has-been-found-in-a-common-anti-malarial-drug/
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/17/an-effective-treatment-for-coronavirus-covid-19-has-been-found-in-a-common-anti-malarial-drug/
I'll continue to try and dig out more direct links to the studies.
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trader jake
Footballguy
Props to Doug B. He has been consistently on point in this thread of late. 
shader
Footballguy
hagmania
Footballguy
Try "from the beginning".Props to Doug B. He has been consistently on point in this thread of late.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
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Doug B
Footballguy
I feel you may consider this overly nit-picky, but:
A positive result reported in a study does not constitute an "official protocol". When you wrote "official protocol", that suggests to others that a nation's equivalent to our CDC has put forward a white paper and/or made a public pronouncement that a given treatment was now indicated as front-line care for COVID.
There have been positive studies for hydroxychloroquine, yes. There have been inconclusive studies as well -- and I suspect many more of the latter, though I have not counted them up. Calling it "official protocol" of any nation was a step too far. You're being called on that, but don't mistake those corrections for personal hostility.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
Population of New York State is around 20 million people. So he’s assuming that 0.15% of people might all need a ventilator at the same time. That doesn’t seem so outrageous to me.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
I don't care at this point. Report me.
Harassing someone for trying to find better sources than a Google search? Acting like if I couldn't dig up links to actual published medical studies within seconds meant they didn't exist?
Sand
Footballguy
Heard somewhere that anaesthesia machines can be turned into ventilators? That may help a great deal as there are many of those around. Also, UM is working on a dirt simple machine. That's a great idea and better than nothing.
Also saw that the FDA is shutting down home testing. That's likely to be a big mistake and typical of a bureaucracy like this.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
New cases are down, but new deaths are up. Not sure how to interpret that except to say we'll (still) need a few more days data to see if the downward trend is really holding. Thoughts?
skol asylum
Footballguy
Population of NY is 19.5 million. He's been saying something like 50-70 percent of population is going to contract it. Let's say 60 percent. That's 11.7 million. If 2 percent of those cases (just a random number I picked) are severe that's 234,000 cases. Obviously not all hitting the hospital at one time.
Chemical X
Footballguy
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Yes, thanks captain obvious. That's why I'm still trying to find the links where it was called protocol in South Korea and China.
I'd say sharing a published medical study saying "According to South Korean and China human treatment guidelines, chloroquine is effective in treating COVID-19." is a good place to start in the meantime.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
On 3/18, there were 1871 cases in NY...6 days later, there are 25665.
I imagine the rate of infection will decrease simply because the 1871 number is a small denominator. But if cases double every 60 hours, that means 200k cases in NY this time next week.
With Cuomo stating apex is still 14-21 days away...I think that’s the fear here.
Sand
Footballguy
Deaths lag hospitalizations which lag confirmed cases which lags people getting infected. It hopefully means the lockdown is working and is getting Re below 1.
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
Damn. Both numbers up from yesterday.
Down from the peak, but still. Their curve has not flattened.
shader
Footballguy
New cases are down from their peak, but they are up from yesterday. 4,789 to 5,249.
Also, deaths should continue to rise because it's a lagging indicator.
shader
Footballguy
I don't report people. But I do ignore liberally. Doug B has been super helpful throughout this thread and there's no need for this, but hey, do what you want because I won't be reading anymore of your posts.
shader
Footballguy
Yeah as long as there are 5,000 new reported cases in a day, the quarantine goes on for the foreseeable future.
beer 30
Footballguy
Everyone does here
Not knocking it but you're also one of the fittest BAMF's on the site. I feel like you are less at risk than old man Chem X.I feel pretty confident that by then she and I will both have been exposed to the virus and developed immunity.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Here's another link with the full contents of a study on Chloroquine...
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0883944120303907?via%3Dihub
Mentions the Dutch CDC suggesting the drug for use on patients requiring hospitalization or in ICU...
Again, it's not lick handrails time but there's plenty of reason for hope and optimism. And no one should have a problem with someone sharing links like this.
I'll find more when I have the time later today.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0883944120303907?via%3Dihub
Mentions the Dutch CDC suggesting the drug for use on patients requiring hospitalization or in ICU...
And the Italian Society of Infectious and Tropical disease...
This mentions a protocol of how to conduct studies of chloroquine by WHO to other nations in response to the early studies of the drug in China...
Study conclusion...
Again, it's not lick handrails time but there's plenty of reason for hope and optimism. And no one should have a problem with someone sharing links like this.
I'll find more when I have the time later today.
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Flying Elvis
Footballguy
The restrictions for HIPPA approved tele-visits were some of the first to be relaxed when it became clear how bad this was.
Sounds like a good time to again mention that the strong measures (lockdowns / shelter-in-place / flatten the curve) are intended to prevent our the US healthcare system from being overwhelmed. Lots more people die when that happens and many could survive if we just slow it down enough for hospitals to keep up with the demand for treatment.
I need to just copy that to notepad for ease of use.
chet
Footballguy
You also need beds and personnel to run those machines which would be the bottleneck IMO. There are ~950k hospital beds in the US which means in NY, there are probably 20/350 * 950,000 = ~54k beds. But ~2/3 of those are already in use for chronically ill patients which means you'd have 18k free beds for all COVID-19 victims. So to use 30k ventilators, you'd need 12k additional beds and then you'd have NO room for anyone else with COVID-19. The numbers don't work when you drill down a little.
Doug B
Footballguy
First off, information about scientific matters of this import cannot come from just any website. WattsUpWithThat.com (tagline: The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change) does not qualify. However ... they do provide a link to original paper in the second paragraph, in the 'Encouraging News' section, but ...
... the link is dead. Why? Google Docs throws up a message: "We're sorry. You can't access this item because it is in violation of our Terms of Service."
The article does pull together bits and pieces of information from other sources, and aims to pass it off as some kind of scientific consensus. The authors also made up a major claim out of whole cloth that "[the] treatment guidelines of both South Korea and China against COVID-19 are generally consistent, outlining chloroquine as an effective treatment." There were links given to support this statement, but those links, too, are dead Google Docs links.
See a pattern forming?
...
There are reasons some of us insist on corroboration of new information, on favored citations from traditional news sources, and such. It's not to be contentious jerks. It's because just about anything can be published online without fact-checking. And there are furthermore many ways of publishing things online to make them look better than they are. To look ... official, even. But a skeptical mind must always be employed when faced with new, impactful information.
Statorama
gangster
Just saw a story where someone ingested Chloroquine Phosphate, ignoring the bright orange sticker that said "Not for human consumption" (since it's used to clean fish tanks)
PSA - Drinking Hydrogen Peroxide (H2O2) will not yield the same results as drinking Dihydrogen Monoxide (H2O) even though they both contain the same chemicals
PSA - Drinking Hydrogen Peroxide (H2O2) will not yield the same results as drinking Dihydrogen Monoxide (H2O) even though they both contain the same chemicals
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Sand
Footballguy
The administration should bet on the come and ramp up US based production of this stuff. About a zillion tablets will do.
MTskibum
Footballguy
I appreciate the link, although I was really hoping to read a double blind study with patients that are given the drug when symptoms first present themselves. What percent of hospitalizations could the drug prevent when provided early enough, etc.
That might be a few weeks to a month off though.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Redwes25
Footballguy
Not as good as I had hopped on cases but new cases are clearly flattening out. Death number is awful but it is lagging number.
MTskibum
Footballguy
The below quote is from that link. They are hopeful that it will work, but not much proof yet.
Sand
Footballguy
There are two big questions with this stuff - does it reduce the severity of the disease once presented? And is it effective as a prophylcatic?
Both are huge questions.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
That's why it's just hope right now my friend. It doesn't mean it can't be shared. It says something when government agencies around the world are issuing guidelines to give the drug a shot on it's most dire cases though.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
WFH extended until May 2. Glad they went ahead and made a call on that.
Redwes25
Footballguy
On new cases I think it has a bit. We are still below the peak of cases which was Saturday and below Sunday's numbers as well as Thursday and Friday's numbers.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Yep, I included the whole study. Thankfully there's hopeful news from other places besides China. When I track down more including the data in China and South Korea, I'll post those as well. Though for some it certainly seems pointless.
I know everyone is going to draw their own conclusions. I find hope in how many nations around the world are currently embracing this drug. Reading these studies has certainly helped my outlook. I can drop it at any time if it doesn't help anyone else.
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chet
Footballguy
Then you need additional nurses, doctors and especially ventilator operators. I don't think there's any scenario where NY could use 30k ventilators contemporaneously without severely neglecting all other COVID-19 patients and many others with other illnesses.
Possum
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
Yes very clear the exponential growth has stopped. They've halted the "doubling rate" to somewhere in the nature of 10 days. It's taken 16-17 days to do that.
The tough part of this is knowing when to end the quarantine and knowing when to get back to normal life. That part can't be screwed up either.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
Agreed. We had some discussion in this thread a while back about whether it would be possible to train people quickly to assist with some of the easier tasks normally performed by doctors, nurses, and ventilator operators, freeing those highly-trained people to focus on the more difficult tasks. Some knowledgeable people thought it would be impossible, others seemed to think it could work, at least at the margins. I don't have the background to know myself.
