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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (13 Viewers)

Doug B said:
Please link. Not doubting, just trying to get best info available.
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Edited with link. Apparently, she since made it back to Korea. So it’s not an LA case. She had just spent time out there...so not entirely out of the woods in LA since we’re looking at a long incubation period

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
No—i have never guessed accurate numbers—but if you read through the entire thread—I’ve clearly stated that the magnitude of the crisis and fatality count in China can more accurately be assessed through their own actions of trying to contain the disease more so than their released counts.
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I've read your posts. I understand that China's actions indicate a heavy under-count. I don't understand China's actions leading one to be certain of a given number (namely, COVID-19 raw deaths > influenza's raw deaths).

Couldn't China's actions be artifacts of panic? Or more specifically, reactions to the realizations that enough wasn't done (balls were dropped, etc.) back in December/early January ... so we need to apply overkill protocols NOW to stop the spread? IOW, maybe China's actions haven't been all that considered ... they just knew that if they went overboard, they wouldn't need to worry about specifics. It was easier for them to draw big circles around cities than it was for them to pinpoint 50 cases in a city and draw circles around those 50 people.

 
How exactly are they testing for this?  Is it a blood test?  How accurate?

Just wondering in case someone might have the general cold or the flu and it get's misdiagnosed as corona.

 
JbizzleMan said:
Edited with link. Apparently, she since made it back to Korea. So it’s not an LA case. She had just spent time out there...so not entirely out of the woods in LA since we’re looking at a long incubation period
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Two Japanese cases were similar -- it was a couple that vacationed in Hawaii and started with symptoms while still on vacation. Then they got back to Japan, were hospitalized and confirmed as COVID-19 patients.

 
Doug B said:
Two Japanese cases were similar -- it was a couple that vacationed in Hawaii and started with symptoms while still on vacation. Then they got back to Japan, were hospitalized and confirmed as COVID-19 patients.
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This scares me the most. Do we know if people can spread it before they have any symptoms?

 
ShamrockPride said:
You must have a high tolerance. They suck. IMO as far as fitting goes, if they're NOT uncomfortable, then you're probably wearing it wrong. I couldn't imagine having to spend hours at a time, or an entire day in one.
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Plus, it's not the easiest thing in the world to get a proper fit every time. We have to get fitted every year, and it's a pita. Honestly, the past 2 years I've just lied about it fitting properly so I can be done with it.

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Not only that—the numbers outside of China clearly show that the numbers that China has reported are 100000000% false and inaccurate.  People using those numbers even knowing they are completely false is intellectually dishonest.  If we had a remotely accurate fatality count—this thing has already killed far more than the flu has.  For a bunch of people who use analytics to draft fantasy football teams—it’s mind numbing how they choose to adopt clearly tainted information and then use that information to make false claims.   China has basically shut itself down for nearly 2 months. Thousands of bodies have already been buried or burned as there are not nearly enough test kits.  If those bodies are gone before the cause of death is established—-it doesnt get added to the tally.  Metaphorically there is a giant mushroom cloud in the sky—and the Chinese government is telling us that it’s from a small house fire—and people are naive enough to believe it.   
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Mix in some decaf boss, this ones a marathon :thumbup:

 
eoMMan said:
How exactly are they testing for this?  Is it a blood test?  How accurate?

Just wondering in case someone might have the general cold or the flu and it get's misdiagnosed as corona.
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This is a good question, because IIRC even the flu test is only about 70% accurate.

 
JbizzleMan said:
Doug B said:
Two Japanese cases were similar -- it was a couple that vacationed in Hawaii and started with symptoms while still on vacation. Then they got back to Japan, were hospitalized and confirmed as COVID-19 patients.
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This scares me the most. Do we know if people can spread it before they have any symptoms?
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As I understand it .. it's thought that, yes, asymptomatic carriers can spread it. However, it's not like being in the same room with an asymptomatic carrier will get you sick. They still have to sneeze near you or onto an object you touch ... and then you go touching your eyes, mouth, nose, etc. Maybe rubbing their eyes and then touching stuff. Something like that.

Around asymptomatic carriers, it would seem hand sanitizing and taking care not to touch one's face would help tremendously.

 
Vanilla Guerrilla said:
It's also possible that some of the people have been following the reports, know that it has been going around since mid December, don't trust the statistics coming from a third world country nor trust their medical systems, have heard the same fearmongering done every few years over other diseases that crop up, and truly believe that there is a 99.x% chance that it will not have any effect on him outside of someone getting a baddish case of the flu.

I will likely buy some masks and extra water on the outside chance this is a legit world changing event, but I'm not building a shelter or making a non-negative ventilated room out of duct tape and shower curtains with water and air coming in unfiltered and think it's going to quarantine someone.

I'll also make some jokes about extreme reactions to it.  Maybe some people should just be proactive and start hiding out in their shelters today.  At the very least you can protect yourself from humor.
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Well there, you sure showed us!   :eek:

Might as well shut the thread down. Internet Toughguy is here!! 

 
eoMMan said:
How exactly are they testing for this?  Is it a blood test?  How accurate?

Just wondering in case someone might have the general cold or the flu and it get's misdiagnosed as corona.
Click to expand...
They actually look for the virus's genetic material -- RNA in the case of the coronavirus:

RT-PCR (reverse transcriptase - polymerase chain reaction) is a PCR test that is designed to detect and measure RNA. Although initial PCR tests amplified DNA, many viruses and other biological components (for example, mitochondria) utilize RNA as their genetic material. RT-PCR differs from conventional PCR by first taking RNA and converting the RNA strand into a DNA strand. This is done by essentially the same method for PCR described above with the exception of using an enzyme termed reverse transcriptase instead of the DNA polymerase. The reverse transcriptase allows a single strand of RNA to be translated into a complementary strand of DNA. Once that reaction occurs, the routine PCR method can then be used to amplify the DNA. RT-PCR has been used to detect and study many RNA viruses.
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General info about this class of tests, same link (just scroll up to top):

Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is a technique that is used to amplify trace amounts of DNA (and in some instances, RNA) located in or on almost any liquid or surface where DNA strands may be deposited. The key to understanding PCR is to know that every human, animal, plant, parasite, bacterium, or virus contains genetic material such as DNA (or RNA) sequences (nucleotide sequences or pieces of DNA or RNA) that are unique to their species, and to the individual member of that species. Consequently, if a sample contains segments of DNA or RNA, PCR is a method used to amplify (make many more identical copies) of these unique sequences so they can then be used to determine with a very high probability the identity of the source (a specific person, animal, or pathogenic organism) of the trace DNA or RNA found in or on almost any sample of material.

PCR amplification is only part of the identifying test, however. Once the amplification is done (see below), the amplified segments need to be compared to other nucleotide segments from a known source (for example, a specific person, animal, or pathogenic organism). This comparison of unique segments is often done by placing PCR-generated nucleotide sequences next to known nucleotide sequences from humans, pathogens, or other sources in a separating gel. Electrical current is run through the gel and the various nucleotide sequences form bands that resemble a "ladder" according to their electrical charge and molecular size. This is termed gel electrophoresis. Bands or "ladder" like steps that migrate to the same levels in the gel show identity of nucleotide sequences. This method is one of the most popular ways PCR tests are completed.
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EDIT: Specific procedures of testing are also given on that page for anyone interested.

.

 
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msommer said:
Also - if brewing low alcohol beers you don't need to worry too much about storing water!

Double also - don't forget to stop up on hops and perhaps even identifying hop plants near you. If society collapses, those IPAs will be hard to come by!
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Agreed.   I have lots of hops in freezer and in my third year of growing them so expecting a big harvest this year!

 
[icon] said:
Well there, you sure showed us!   :eek:

Might as well shut the thread down. Internet Toughguy is here!! 
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You always seem aware yet sensitive of your outlying position on these topics.  You make for hard conversation in these threads.

 
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Doug B said:
I've read your posts. I understand that China's actions indicate a heavy under-count. I don't understand China's actions leading one to be certain of a given number (namely, COVID-19 raw deaths > influenza's raw deaths).

Couldn't China's actions be artifacts of panic? Or more specifically, reactions to the realizations that enough wasn't done (balls were dropped, etc.) back in December/early January ... so we need to apply overkill protocols NOW to stop the spread? IOW, maybe China's actions haven't been all that considered ... they just knew that if they went overboard, they wouldn't need to worry about specifics. It was easier for them to draw big circles around cities than it was for them to pinpoint 50 cases in a city and draw circles around those 50 people.
Click to expand...
Let me make my point clear.  If you think that China would take the measures it has because of optics or because they want to keep an already low death count low—We’ll just have to agree to disagree.  That country has never sacrificed the health of its economy for humanitarian causes.   They lied about everything about this disease every step along the way and every day it’s becoming more and more evident. 

With that said—I don’t think this thing will be a zombie apocalypse situation and I think its a matter of time until they get this under control. However—i believe it will be months and not weeks.   If you have read through the thread—you will see that I have not made any comments about stockpiling food or anything of that nature.  My entire point is that governments all have an interest in under-reporting the severity of this disease because of the impact that it will have on the markets.  They are being dismissive of the humanitarian toll of this thing to preserve financial interests—which is garbage and is the morally wrong thing to do. A lot of people never came into this thread until the economic impact of the virus hurt them in their stock portfolios.  Those same people are no different than what the Chinese government is guilty of—downplaying this entire thing for the sake of preserving their net worth.  Anybody that says that this thing is super serious and needs to be worried about is attacked by this tribalism behavior of  “you’re just fear mongering” on these boards.   This virus in on every continent with the exception of Antarctica right now.  

If people want to talk economics—here you go.  Europe is in danger as Europe is known for very wide open borders.   Economically they are in danger with vastly dropping tourism numbers—and manufacturing numbers that will slow further. Milan is the 18th biggest manufacturing hub on the planet.  Sure—the fed and central banks can and will lower rates—and this will help a tad—but lowering rates will not solve supply chain back logs very quickly.   Again—do I think that this will be a long term apocalypse for the markets long term—no.  However—I do think that many governments and many people were very ignorant in brushing this thing off both on a humanitarian and an economic level in the short to medium term—and instead of eating crow for it—they choose to be confrontational.   If people dont like what I say—ignore me—I don’t care.   This virus is no longer a China problem—it’s a giant world problem for the time being. Period. 

 
[icon] said:
ITT Ball Busting is a one way street, got it. :lol:  
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You don't appear to get what I was saying at all.  

You are aware that you take these extreme (for lack of better word) steps, appear comfortable with them when describing it (which is good)... but then sensitive about it when challenged.

 
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I read one post in this thread and it was a joke linking to a fake mask.

Now I have a ton of reported posts. 

One time warning - everyone be way more cool about this. Meaning be cool to each other. This is not a place for making jokes. 

 
matuski said:
You don't appear to get what I was saying at all.  

You are aware that you take these extreme (for lack of better word) steps, appear comfortable with them when describing it (which is good)... but then sensitive about it when challenged.
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I got what ya meant. Often my posting style in here reflects mood outside this FBG microcosm.

Was in a particularly entertaining troll-job on another forum, and it spilled back into busting back on VG a bit. Plus notebook indicates he's a toolish poster from previous encounters. 

In aware Some here are going to continue mocking those of us who are preparing up until things get bad, then will be panicking on here asking what to do.

Hopefully it won't come to that, though it'll admittedly add some comedic relief to an otherwise ####ty situation. 

 
Joe Bryant said:
I read one post in this thread and it was a joke linking to a fake mask.

Now I have a ton of reported posts. 

One time warning - everyone be way more cool about this. Meaning be cool to each other. This is not a place for making jokes. 
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People are really reporting posts in this thread? 

Jeez louis.  It really hasn't been that bad or hurtful, imo.

 
[icon] said:
I got what ya meant. Often my posting style in here reflects mood outside this FBG microcosm.

Was in a particularly entertaining troll-job on another forum, and it spilled back into busting back on VG a bit. Plus notebook indicates he's a toolish poster from previous encounters. 

In aware Some here are going to continue mocking those of us who are preparing up until things get bad, then will be panicking on here asking what to do.

Hopefully it won't come to that, though it'll admittedly add some comedic relief to an otherwise ####ty situation. 
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Serious question:  When we get to the 'things get bad' portion of this movie, do you REALLY think guys are going to be racing to the FFA in a panic, asking what they should do?  Or is this just more trolling?  

 
adonis said:
It's a smattering...some jokes, but mostly good advice.  I've had about a 9/10 ratio of trying to offer good information to a little light-hearted humor in an otherwise very serious situation.  The previous few pages are full of advice about masks.  Where to get them, what to look for, when to use them...
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Keep it 10/10 for good information.

I dropped into the thread, read one post, clicked on the link thinking it would be good info and it was a joke. My experience was the opposite of what I'd want a person in this community to have. 

 
Joe Bryant said:
Keep it 10/10 for good information.

I dropped into the thread, read one post, clicked on the link thinking it would be good info and it was a joke. My experience was the opposite of what I'd want a person in this community to have. 
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How about focusing on misinformation that could actually be harmful instead of judging a 50 page thread by the one post you read?  Once again, you ignore trolling and false statements, but jokes are over the line.  

 
General Malaise said:
Serious question:  When we get to the 'things get bad' portion of this movie, do you REALLY think guys are going to be racing to the FFA in a panic, asking what they should do?  Or is this just more trolling?  
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Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me for some. :lol:  

 
[icon] said:
Agree with the latter. 

Our plan is kinda one of stages. Obviously it's quite unlikely we will get to all stages... but I like at least having a plan, and happen to have outdoorsy/military buddies who do as well: 

1) Now: start slowly phasing in light social distancing and improved hygienic habits. View large crowd gatherings as risk/reward scenarios. 

2) Spreading begins stateside: Telecommute. Shelter in place mostly. Social distancing and Light PPE when in public. Establish decon station in garage w/ crude "scrub station" to keep inside home "clear". Stage 2 bins with important personal items, have 2 large bins ready for clothes (Odds: Likely) 

3) Spreading begins locally: Firm shelter in place. Stage clothes, supplies & be prepared to roll to a buddy's house on short notice. IF either of us needs to leave, full PPE and scrub in when returning home. (Odds: 50 / 50 of happening)

4) Quarantine / Instability: If we see threat of forced quarantine / local travel restriction / Localized looting, we will load clothes/supplies/weapons/personal bins into our two vehicles, secure the house, and relocate to a buddy's house about 4 miles away per an agreed upon plan. (Odds: Highly unlikely) 

Secondary / Emergency Location: He, his wife, and 2yo son live in a 9000 square foot brick home in a very nice neighborhood. It sits atop a hill at the end of a cove with great sight lines in all directions.

He's in the military, is a weapons expert. He's got 2+ years of food, more ammo than we could ever need, reloading bench, a nice garden, honey bees, significant medical supplies, an extensive whiskey collection, roughly 500gal water storage (bottled, 2x 55gal drums, 4x water BOBs), plus rainwater collection system tied into his gutters and a large water purification system. HE is a "prepper", albeit a very normal dude. His wife is a military/civilian pilot as well. You'd never guess any of this meeting them or walking around their house, which is by design. 

We will have 4-5 couples (all close friends) there to share watch/duties with plenty of bedrooms/space for everyone. Each would be coming in with ~2+ months of supplies. We could comfortably shelter in place for extended period there, and properly defend it if anyone who didn't prepare decided to get nosy. 
 
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In terms of prepping, where do you put your plan on a scale of 1 - 10 where one is doing nothing. 
 

 
Joe Bryant said:
I read one post in this thread and it was a joke linking to a fake mask.

Now I have a ton of reported posts. 

One time warning - everyone be way more cool about this. Meaning be cool to each other. This is not a place for making jokes. 
Click to expand...
Remember when you were complaining about how many reported posts you had to filter through and some of us said that is self-inflicted? 

 
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