What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (7 Viewers)

In the daily Ohio Governor DeWine press conference on Friday, I thought these two things were notable:

  • Dr. Amy Acton revised upwards the modeling estimates of the daily peak number of new cases expected to occur in Ohio from 6,000 to 10,000.
  • Governor DeWine said that modeling estimates for Ohio show a need for 2x to 3x the current hospital capacity at the peak period.  Accordingly, Ohio is planning for 3x, even if that might end up being a high estimate - the emphasis is on having adequate capacity available at the peak, so they will use the 3x estimate instead of the 2x estimate.  He said the planning phase is over, Ohio has created a small amount of additional time with it's Stay at Home initiative (i.e. the curve has been pushed out and flattened to some degree), and is now immediately moving into the building phase to create the 3x hospital capacity.
A note for point one above, a couple of days ago when a reporter was asking about the 6000 cases estimate, he asked what the time frame was for those cases, and was astounded, honestly astounded, when she replied "per day". He had to repeat the answer twice to make sure he was hearing the answer correctly.  To me, it showed that even someone in the media hadn't yet fully grasped the scope of the numbers being discussed.

 
KiddLattimer said:
Not sure how many of you will find this interesting but I just watched an interesting video from Dr. Michael Greger from back in 2008 about where these types of diseases come from.  (Has some factory farm images some may not like.)

TL;DW - Animal agriculture and domestication

Bias check - it's from a vegan site and Dr. Greger is a vegan advocate, but it seems to be fairly well researched.  
Click to expand...
Yesterday, I either read it here or elsewhere, case person zero said she thinks she got it from a shared toilet at a meat market in Wuhan.

 
Interesting read here.  This was published a couple days ago, so my apologies if it has already been shared here.  It is an interview with George Gao, the director-general of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.  

 
Morton Muffley said:
HellToupee said:
This is astonishing 
Click to expand...
Lol, what an unbelievably snarky and un-clever retort.  Do you realize that when you responded to my post with your above d-baggery that the post had 12 likes, 1 thanks, and 2 hearts?  

Welcome to my ignore list.
Click to expand...
I thought that HT meant "I can't believe so many people were cavalier about handwashing." Didn't read like a dig.

 
moleculo said:
today marks the 12th day since we began shutting things down.  If we have been effective, we should start seeing the number of new cases tail off.  I hope for a reduction in new cases, but maintaining number of new cases (plus or minus) would be a big improvement.   12 days was how long it took for effects to be seen in both China and Italy - time from initial lockdown to new cases peaking.  Hopefully we follow a similar trend.

As far as the death rate, we seem to have been increasing at 32%/day for the past week (doubling every 2.2 days).  As death rate is a lagging indicator, I don't expect that to crest for at least a week after the # of new cases peaks.  At the present rate, we will have ~20k total deaths by then.
Click to expand...
I don't really know that you can have the same gauge for the US as Italy. Too many large metropolitan areas too far apart here. Probably 80%+ of our population centers have hardly been touched, so far. Comparing Italy to NY State might be more accurate, as far as population, timeline, and proximity?

 
Soulfly3 said:
same exact sentiment. he's gonna win a lotmof votes w his handling so far
Click to expand...
that's possible but the provincial election is 2 1/2-3 years away iirc so that will give him lots of time to go back to who he really is  
im in BC so only have media reports to go on so im interested in how Ontarians perceive him in real time

Im not an NDP voter but have been impressed by Horgan on how he has handled it out here in BC and truthfully with  his tenure as premier with a minority government   

 
Germany will issue coronavirus antibody certificates to allow quarantined to re-enter society (The Telegraph [UK], 3/29/2020)

(The article is pay-walled, but you can read the first few paragraphs without a subscription)

German researchers plan to introduce coronavirus ‘immunity certificates’ to facilitate a proper transition into post-lockdown life, as Chancellor Angela Merkel’s handling of the crisis has led to a boost in the polls.

The antibodies will indicate that the test participants have had the virus, have healed and are thereby ready to re-enter society and the workforce. The researchers plan to test 100,000 members of the public at a time, issuing documentation to those who have overcome the virus.

The researchers will use the information to determine how to properly end the county’s lockdown, including re-opening schools and allowing mass gatherings.
Click to expand...

 
BTW I have no doubt that Florida's numbers are going to go bananas the next few days if for no other reason than  because of testing. Locally the drive-thru testing  has been going through their daliy max of tests but.... the patients been told 7 to 9 days for results. 

So you're going to see numbers this week for folks who were sick last week

 
FBG Moderator said:
Please don't post just to get a reaction. That's the definition of trolling. 

If you think President Trump is doing a good job, take it the Political forum and say it and back up why you say it. But drop the trolling. 

Zero patience to debate this with you. Drop it or find a new board. 
Click to expand...
Can we get a "hallelujah" emoji?

 
SoBeDad said:
I'm hearing about the shortage of PPE for healtcare workers from firsthand accounts in Miami. A  hospital is asking employees to not wear masks while in most areas such as the cafeteria.  Cashiers have no PPE. Office staff in the few physician offices still seeing out patients are being told not to wear masks.  A dialysis company is not providing proper PPE to their nurses.
Click to expand...
We are not a Covid front-line facility, but we do have cases. We get one surgical mask and we are supposed to use it for 2 shifts, even if those shifts are not on consecutive days.

ETA: This does NOT apply when taking care of the Covid patients. This is only for other patients that require wearing a mask. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The General said:
We are still pretty dead. Not sure if you are liking going into work or not. But hopefully they are putting as much stuff in place as possible to keep you safe.

I could go in but work has decided to shut it down and we are doing as much as we can from home.

I go for walks, have been to the store, have gotten coffee at my friend’s business. Everyone just following the distancing rules.

Last info I looked at, Washington was quite a bit lower and slower on the curve. They have the auxiliary hospitals going up so they are getting prepped if they need it.

Honestly haven't been following the numbers super closely but I believe Washington is going up way slower than other areas that have no been hit. Thought our chart looked much more like a steady slow rising hill than a straight up incline that places hit badly are seeing.

I’d give Inslee a high score on this.
Click to expand...
Trader Joe's was just as busy as any normal Sunday. Fred Meyer was maybe 70-80% as busy as a normal weekend (they were 50% or less when I've stopped during the week).  Lots of stores open that must be "essential": GNC Supplements (food I guess?), the Dollar Store (technically they do sell food), auto parts stores (i can see how this could be essential), Sherwin William's and Aqua Quip (I guess they fall into necessary hardware catagory).  Pot store busy.  Tobacco stores open. 

For sure not as many people out and about compared to last weekend but, I suspect that's because of the weather. Will be interesting to see what the next sunny weekend is like. 

 
I just saw that Joe Diffie died from COVID.  He was a pretty big country music star in the 90s.  One of my favorites when I was into the Garth Brooks/Alan Jackson/Brooks & Dunn-led boom of the time.  

I'm sure it's not a big deal to most, but it was a time when I was in my teens and connecting with your parents isn't easy.  But my Mom and I connected through country music.

One of Joe Diffie's biggest hits was Prop Me Up Besides the Jukebox When I Die.  Yeah, I know it's hoakie, but I hope someone propped him up.

 
The local public hospital in Miami, 2000+ bed Jackson Health System, is reporting the number of COVID-19 cases, because the public wants more information. They now have 54 inpatient cases, 11 more than yesterday, but still not at crisis level. One of their ICU nurses, a 30+ year veteran, died with COVID-19 on Thursday; her brother said "she contracted the virus while treating patients who were sick."

https://twitter.com/conarck/status/1244347859564191747

https://wsvn.com/news/local/miami-dade/jackson-memorial-hospital-nurse-dies-from-coronavirus/

 
Last edited by a moderator:
A lot of people, both here and IRL, ask about re-infection risks of COVID-19. The author below, Peter Kolchinsky, Ph.D., has doctorate in Virology from Harvard University and is an investment-firm founder/director (RA Capital Management in Boston). His first book, The Great American Drug Deal, came out earlier this year shortly before COVID-19 started spreading worldwide.

I don't do much Twitter, but I feel like a lot of people in this thread might like following this guy because he straddles both the hard science and the financial-analysis sides.

Anyway, about COVID reinfection (nine tweets combined) :

Peter Kolchinsky
@PeterKolchinsky

If you are hearing about #covid19 “reinfections” in Asia, I can offer you my take as a virologist. The best explanation for what we’re seeing is likely due to three things...

1) The patients have likely indeed recovered from their covid infection and are on their way to clearing the virus as their immune system hunts down every infected cell and stray virion. But there are still lingering bits and pieces of the virus around.

2) these tests can be very sensitive at detecting viral genetic material, even it’s just a non-infectious byproduct of the immune system conquering the virus.

3) but it’s also sometimes the case that the test yields a false negative result; maybe the swab didn’t pick up enough material or was mishandled, so the next retest turning up positive could be catching the original infection, not a new one.

Any responsible coverage of these “reinfection” rumors makes the point that we should not assume that these recovered patients actually were reinfected again or even that the low levels of viral material detected means they are infectious to others.

For example, NPR writes “It is unclear whether they are infectious and why they tested positive after their earlier negative test.”

The main reason I’m skeptical that patients were actually reinfected so soon after recovering is due to what we know of the virus and recovery. Patients who beat their infection (and ~98-99% do), do so because their immune systems rev up enough to beat it.

That’s how immunity works. Immunity can fade, but not on the scale on weeks that these reports suggest.  Maybe after a year. So for now, these reports of “reinfections” are likely just an artifact of imperfect testing.

Covid-19 is a shock to all of us, but that doesn’t mean that it’s likely behaving radically differently from what we know of other viruses, even other coronaviruses. Odds are high there will be a simpler explanation soon if it’s not out there already (please send if you see one).
Click to expand...

 
Tony Jabroni said:
You should have seen the packed churchs in NOLA and...Florida were today.
Click to expand...
In an alternate universe, those people still gathering in churches and at parties will only affect their own health.

The won't affect the health of of doctors and nurses, they won't infect other people, and they won't occupy beds that other people who did their best to follow the rules but still caught C19 will need.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
tonydead said:
Trader Joe's was just as busy as any normal Sunday. Fred Meyer was maybe 70-80% as busy as a normal weekend (they were 50% or less when I've stopped during the week).  Lots of stores open that must be "essential": GNC Supplements (food I guess?), the Dollar Store (technically they do sell food), auto parts stores (i can see how this could be essential), Sherwin William's and Aqua Quip (I guess they fall into necessary hardware catagory).  Pot store busy.  Tobacco stores open. 
Click to expand...
Don't knock the local dollar stores. They've been the only places I've been able to find paper towels over the last two weeks. Also have (some) TP and a good amount of refrigerated groceries, at least around here. It seems like the big club stores get ravaged first, then WalMart/Target, then the major chain groceries, then the "budget" grocery stores (Save-A-Lot, Budget Saver, etc.) ... and then finally, the dollar stores.

The Dollar General a few blocks from my home got their shipment of paper Friday morning ... and still had about 1/4 of it left Saturday afternoon (a little better on paper towels, a little worse on TP).

 
ClownCausedChaos2 said:
I just saw that Joe Diffie died from COVID.  He was a pretty big country music star in the 90s.  One of my favorites when I was into the Garth Brooks/Alan Jackson/Brooks & Dunn-led boom of the time.  

I'm sure it's not a big deal to most, but it was a time when I was in my teens and connecting with your parents isn't easy.  But my Mom and I connected through country music.

One of Joe Diffie's biggest hits was Prop Me Up Besides the Jukebox When I Die.  Yeah, I know it's hoakie, but I hope someone propped him up.
Click to expand...
That sucks 

 
Doug B said:
Don't knock the local dollar stores. They've been the only places I've been able to find paper towels over the last two weeks. Also have (some) TP and a good amount of refrigerated groceries, at least around here. It seems like the big club stores get ravaged first, then WalMart/Target, then the major chain groceries, then the "budget" grocery stores (Save-A-Lot, Budget Saver, etc.) ... and then finally, the dollar stores.

The Dollar General a few blocks from my home got their shipment of paper Friday morning ... and still had about 1/4 of it left Saturday afternoon (a little better on paper towels, a little worse on TP).
Click to expand...
Oh that reminds me, Freddy's did have TP, one per customer.  First time I've seen it there since the panic started. 

 
Apple Jack said:
People still can't find toilet paper? Wtf?
Click to expand...
Haven't seen it in a real grocery store since the evening of March 11 (the night the NBA shut down). Looked for it about a half-dozen times even though we had a two-month supply because "who knows?" Once I noticed Dollar General has stock on Fridays & Saturdays and got the 411 from their manager, I don't worry about it so much now.

 
Doug B said:
Don't knock the local dollar stores. They've been the only places I've been able to find paper towels over the last two weeks. Also have (some) TP and a good amount of refrigerated groceries, at least around here. It seems like the big club stores get ravaged first, then WalMart/Target, then the major chain groceries, then the "budget" grocery stores (Save-A-Lot, Budget Saver, etc.) ... and then finally, the dollar stores.

The Dollar General a few blocks from my home got their shipment of paper Friday morning ... and still had about 1/4 of it left Saturday afternoon (a little better on paper towels, a little worse on TP).
Click to expand...
Yep

Wife picked up 2 cabs of diced tomatoes at Dollar General this morning for my chili, Big pack of paper towels for my daughter who struck out on them at Walmart and the grocery store Friday, and ....believe it or not...a box of stick butter and a big jar of minced garlic lol

 
I heard this in a work conference call the other day, so FWIW:

The TP industry depends quite a bit on recycled industrial paper as its raw material source, and the number of businesses shut down around the country has had a large impact on that supply.

So... there may be a second, more legit wave of TP shortage on its way.

 
We got boatloads of walking bug factories pouring across the FL/GA border from the north

Tons of them at the beach, spreading it.

Crazy Fallwell thinking he can just open back up Liberty U.

Yes, this ain't stopping until we get a vaccine.

 
NotSmart said:
In the daily Ohio Governor DeWine press conference on Friday, I thought these two things were notable:

  • Dr. Amy Acton revised upwards the modeling estimates of the daily peak number of new cases expected to occur in Ohio from 6,000 to 10,000.
  • Governor DeWine said that modeling estimates for Ohio show a need for 2x to 3x the current hospital capacity at the peak period.  Accordingly, Ohio is planning for 3x, even if that might end up being a high estimate - the emphasis is on having adequate capacity available at the peak, so they will use the 3x estimate instead of the 2x estimate.  He said the planning phase is over, Ohio has created a small amount of additional time with it's Stay at Home initiative (i.e. the curve has been pushed out and flattened to some degree), and is now immediately moving into the building phase to create the 3x hospital capacity.
A note for point one above, a couple of days ago when a reporter was asking about the 6000 cases estimate, he asked what the time frame was for those cases, and was astounded, honestly astounded, when she replied "per day". He had to repeat the answer twice to make sure he was hearing the answer correctly.  To me, it showed that even someone in the media hadn't yet fully grasped the scope of the numbers being discussed.
Click to expand...
In other Ohio news..... Thanks, FDA. WTF??!

 
tonydead said:
Trader Joe's was just as busy as any normal Sunday. Fred Meyer was maybe 70-80% as busy as a normal weekend (they were 50% or less when I've stopped during the week).  Lots of stores open that must be "essential": GNC Supplements (food I guess?), the Dollar Store (technically they do sell food), auto parts stores (i can see how this could be essential), Sherwin William's and Aqua Quip (I guess they fall into necessary hardware catagory).  Pot store busy.  Tobacco stores open. 

For sure not as many people out and about compared to last weekend but, I suspect that's because of the weather. Will be interesting to see what the next sunny weekend is like. 
Click to expand...
Dollar Stores are the primary grocery store for a lot of people.

Those companies intentionally place their stores where there's a vacuum of larger chain grocery stores.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

K
Coronavirus prevention
Replies
4
Views
323
JaxBill
JaxBill
nirad3
COVID-19 / CoronaVirus - terms/phrases
Replies
35
Views
621
Galileo
Galileo
Joe Bryant
Scared to ask but don't have anywhere else - Clay Travis Article?
2
Replies
71
Views
3K
roadkill1292
roadkill1292

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 5 (members: 0, guests: 5)
Top