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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread


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22 minutes ago, matuski said:

Per a VASA webcast this AM comprising 80% Nephrologists/Surgeons/Cardiologists from around the world, hosted by Dr. Peden, Houston Methodist:

57% of docs have experienced PPE shortage.

63% have or expect to conduct non specialty care.

Several states limiting procedures to tier 3a/3b.

Doctors repeatedly stressed the need for response to be LOCAL.  Some counties and cities obviously taking a larger brunt than others.

Lots of other dialysis specific information, fantastic conversation. @krista4

Thanks for tagging me here.  Very interesting info.  We get daily updates and have thrice-weekly calls but not with a lot of specifics like this.

I did notice that the assurances that we had no PPE issues two weeks ago were tamped down a lot last week.  Next call is tomorrow so will be curious for that update.

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5 minutes ago, krista4 said:

Thanks for tagging me here.  Very interesting info.  We get daily updates and have thrice-weekly calls but not with a lot of specifics like this.

I did notice that the assurances that we had no PPE issues two weeks ago were tamped down a lot last week.  Next call is tomorrow so will be curious for that update.

Your CMO/CEO was on the call.  Assuming your are D.

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9 minutes ago, cap'n grunge said:

That seems to be the Fed's model of choice but as others have pointed it it may be overly optimistic in assuming extreme Chinese style lockdowns and tracing. I'm not sure of those assumptions though.

You can see the methodology.

It is based on known cases (the flaw).. the good news is most states "peak date" has continued to extend through April into May - meaning the curve is flattened.

Although many docs on the call lamented that flattening the curve too much serves only to extend the duration of the pandemic while resources are in surplus.

Edited by matuski
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27 minutes ago, matuski said:

Your CMO/CEO was on the call.  Assuming your are D.

Good to hear.  And to be clear, I’m about as far from the front lines as can be, and people in the field to whom it’s important are being given huge amounts of info and resources.  I’ve been very proud of the company throughout this time as I see how they’ve handled this and how they’re treating employees and patients.  I hope you’ve been seeing the same.

Edited by krista4
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Some anectdotal news about supplies from the strategic reserves. Some of the masks we received had disintegrated rubber band ear things so they had to be fixed. We really better learn our lesson from this one and get serious about preparedness.

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38 minutes ago, matuski said:

Although many docs on the call lamented that flattening the curve too much serves only to extend the duration of the pandemic while resources are in surplus.

But can flattening the curve too much be a bad thing?  We continue to learn about the virus every day, and supplies needed are being produced at a fast rate.  If you told me I was sure to test positive at some point, I would want that time to be when the healthcare system in my area isn't overwhelmed.

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12 minutes ago, TheWinz said:
59 minutes ago, matuski said:

Although many docs on the call lamented that flattening the curve too much serves only to extend the duration of the pandemic while resources are in surplus.

But can flattening the curve too much be a bad thing?  We continue to learn about the virus every day, and supplies needed are being produced at a fast rate.  If you told me I was sure to test positive at some point, I would want that time to be when the healthcare system in my area isn't overwhelmed.

A surplus of beds and man hours in some areas at the moment but surely not a surplus of PPE. 

Agreed, if my 66 year old mom needs a ventilator I would like to go to bed each night not wondering if she will be taken off of it in favor of a 20 year old before I wake in the morning.

 

Edited by Dezbelief
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Full interview of Scientist with potential antibody treatment:

https://youtu.be/AV-nWT2VLuI

I love science. It's got to be so fulfilling to be working on something like this and seeing success. Hopeful for them...and us.

Edited by cap'n grunge
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22 minutes ago, cap'n grunge said:

Full interview of Scientist with potential antibody treatment:

https://youtu.be/AV-nWT2VLuI

I love science. It's got to be so fulfilling to be working on something like this and seeing success. Hopeful for them...and us.

Interesting. So Sept would be the soonest to try on hc workers and hospitalised pts if all goes as planned. 

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Just now, CurlyNight said:

Interesting. So Sept would be the soonest to try on hc workers and hospitalised pts if all goes as planned. 

Yeah

That's the part that's frustrating. You'd think if it is an antibody approach and if as he says they are very safe you could get it into use much quicker assuming the trials show success. 

Still seems like good news though. Also towards the end he talked about we could possibly engineer these things to be broad spectrum so we are actually prepared for the next virus ahead of time.

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3 hours ago, cap'n grunge said:

This guy and his team were my favorite part of that show.

For those who didn't watch, they are a totally independent lab (didn't want to answer to / be slowed by anyone) that are attempting to create a universal Flu vaccine... that will inoculate you vs all forms of influenza for life.

They have had some degree of success and won some advance funding from the Gates Foundation. 

It goes without saying what something like that would mean for humanity, if they were able to be successful. 
 

 

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9 minutes ago, [icon] said:

... they are a totally independent lab (didn't want to answer to / be slowed by anyone) that are attempting to create a universal Flu vaccine... as in common flu, SARS, MERS, COVID, etc... the goal is a single shot (or very short series of 2-3) that will inoculate you vs all forms of influenza for life.

Your terminology or are you quoting from the news piece? SARS, MERS, COVID-19, etc. aren’t “forms of the flu”.

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40 minutes ago, [icon] said:

This guy and his team were my favorite part of that show.

For those who didn't watch, they are a totally independent lab (didn't want to answer to / be slowed by anyone) that are attempting to create a universal Flu vaccine... as in common flu, SARS, MERS, COVID, etc... the goal is a single shot (or very short series of 2-3) that will inoculate you vs all forms of influenza for life.

They have had some degree of success and won some advance funding from the Gates Foundation. 

It goes without saying what something like that would mean for humanity, if they were able to be successful. 
 

 

I wish we funded stuff like bridges, roads, education, and this, rather than building billion dollar fighter jets and aircraft carriers. 

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3 hours ago, TheWinz said:

But can flattening the curve too much be a bad thing?  We continue to learn about the virus every day, and supplies needed are being produced at a fast rate.  If you told me I was sure to test positive at some point, I would want that time to be when the healthcare system in my area isn't overwhelmed.

The idea of flattening the curve is that if you do it enough the health care system is never overwhelmed

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49 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

I wish we funded stuff like bridges, roads, education, and this, rather than building billion dollar fighter jets and aircraft carriers. 

To be fair, we need the jets and carriers too. But unfortunately there's so much fluff in our military contracts... without it we could easily fund a lot of the initiatives you're requesting.

If only there was a way to incentivize leaner government. 

Edited by [icon]
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1 hour ago, Snorkelson said:

I wish we funded stuff like bridges, roads, education, and this, rather than building billion dollar fighter jets and aircraft carriers. 

Yea but one fattens the pockets of a few military industry titans and one only helps the american people.

Easy choice for our politicians unfortunately. 

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48 minutes ago, [icon] said:

To be fair, we need the jets and carriers too. But unfortunately there's so much fluff in our military contracts... without it we could easily fund a lot of the initiatives you're requesting.

If only there was a way to incentivize leaner government. 

I don’t disagree, but it’s stupid how much more we spend on our military than the rest of the world. We make all these weapons and sell them and fight with each other; it’s pointless.
 

We have a great standard of life in the US, are incredibly innovative, and incredibly profitable. If we used our collective wealth and knowledge to better that standard, cure diseases affecting the world, create new tech to create clean water, clean energy, and send these things out into the world rather than missles, we would be better off. 

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2 hours ago, [icon] said:

This guy and his team were my favorite part of that show.

For those who didn't watch, they are a totally independent lab (didn't want to answer to / be slowed by anyone) that are attempting to create a universal Flu vaccine... that will inoculate you vs all forms of influenza for life.

They have had some degree of success and won some advance funding from the Gates Foundation. 

It goes without saying what something like that would mean for humanity, if they were able to be successful. 

Honestly? It would mean that Mother Nature would come up with another way to kill us off that would be that much harder to cure.

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I don't have the link and perhaps someone already posted it but I am being told Florida is now Shelter-In-Place from our hospital texts flying into our phones. 

Personally I don't think that changes much for me right now. Unless there are a slew of new business that are taken off the essentials. I have not looked at the new orders form the Gov personally yet, just what I'm hearing this morning. I know some folks were upset about beaches in more remote areas of Florida being open but the main beaches in South Florida and Tampa/St Pete, Naples/Ft Myers have all been closed for a couple weeks, 3.20.20 at 3:20 in the afternoon was when most things started shutting down here. 

 

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2 minutes ago, JaxBill said:

I have a condo booked at Indian Rocks Beach (just South of Clearwater but more laid-back and much more family crowd) for mid-June.  I have until April 14th. I'm going to see how the next week plays out and probably cancel.

I have a completely comped stay at the wynn in vegas May 13-16, that luckily I dont have to cancel until the day before. 

Hope it is open. 

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20 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

I don't have the link and perhaps someone already posted it but I am being told Florida is now Shelter-In-Place from our hospital texts flying into our phones. 

Personally I don't think that changes much for me right now. Unless there are a slew of new business that are taken off the essentials. I have not looked at the new orders form the Gov personally yet, just what I'm hearing this morning. I know some folks were upset about beaches in more remote areas of Florida being open but the main beaches in South Florida and Tampa/St Pete, Naples/Ft Myers have all been closed for a couple weeks, 3.20.20 at 3:20 in the afternoon was when most things started shutting down here. 

 

I thought DeSantis declared that yesterday for South Florida counties,  not statewide.

 

ETA


https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/490159-governor-to-issue-stay-at-home-order-for-south-florida


 

Edited by JaxBill
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27 minutes ago, JaxBill said:

I have a condo booked at Indian Rocks Beach (just South of Clearwater but more laid-back and much more family crowd) for mid-June.  I have until April 14th. I'm going to see how the next week plays out and probably cancel.

We have a trip to Cabo 5/16-5/23. Haven’t cancelled yet but I’m pretty sure at this point México won’t be letting us in. 
 

We have a few concerts planned for July/Aug in LA, Vegas, and Chicago. We’re still hopeful about those. 
 

The big one for us is that we’re supposed to move to FL in early June. No idea if that will still happen or if it’ll need to get pushed out. 

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29 minutes ago, JaxBill said:

I thought DeSantis declared that yesterday for South Florida counties,  not statewide.

 

ETA


https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/490159-governor-to-issue-stay-at-home-order-for-south-florida


 

Good question Bill, honestly I don't stay glued on this all day. I know the White House has their daily (can I say Pep Rally?) briefing and other than alerts to my phone or something breaking locally I am trying to just stay focused on my family like many of you. I am trying to not overreact when they issue further restrictions to what is already in place. 

I thought it was issued this morning but maybe it was yesterday afternoon. Mrs and I had a movie date in the house last night and that means we put the phones away, anything that can interrupt us. 

You're saying it's not Statewide, that is a little McGoofy.  

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7 hours ago, TheWinz said:

But can flattening the curve too much be a bad thing?  We continue to learn about the virus every day, and supplies needed are being produced at a fast rate.  If you told me I was sure to test positive at some point, I would want that time to be when the healthcare system in my area isn't overwhelmed.

It somewhat depends on how we react to positive cases in the near future. Specifically, the tricky part is do we shut down <xyz> if one person tests positive? 

Say we open up restaurants in a month or two... then in August one person on the staff tests positive, is the whole place shut down again? How about a store? A league? The world series? Life in general? At what point do we say "we have to accept positive tests"?

Now that I think about it, this is a tricky question. 

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58 minutes ago, parasaurolophus said:

I have a completely comped stay at the wynn in vegas May 13-16, that luckily I dont have to cancel until the day before. 

Hope it is open. 

We have our baby due on May 15th, so I also hope things are open by then including hospital beds 😨

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Just now, jwb said:

It somewhat depends on how we react to positive cases in the near future. Specifically, the tricky part is do we shut down <xyz> if one person tests positive? 

Say we open up restaurants in a month or two... then in August one person on the staff tests positive, is the whole place shut down again? How about a store? A league? The world series? Life in general? At what point do we say "we have to accept positive tests"?

Now that I think about it, this is a tricky question. 

If we have comprehensive and quick testing, it's not so difficult.  When someone tests positive we quickly quarantine them, determine everyone they've come into contact with, test them all.  It requires quick testing and also requires teams of people that can do contact tracing.

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6 minutes ago, shader said:

If we have comprehensive and quick testing, it's not so difficult.  When someone tests positive we quickly quarantine them, determine everyone they've come into contact with, test them all.  It requires quick testing and also requires teams of people that can do contact tracing.

fuggedaboutit   That's never going to happen.  We don't have manpower for that.

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19 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

fuggedaboutit   That's never going to happen.  We don't have manpower for that.

Don't really understand the idea that we can afford either the impacts of the dead or shutting the economy down, but not the cost of a standard pandemic response (that's already working in other countries).

Close everything nationwide for 3 weeks.  Reopen and encourage social distancing.

Then test at like 500k per day, isolate new cases, and do the tracing.

Edited by Dinsy Ejotuz
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7 hours ago, TheWinz said:

But can flattening the curve too much be a bad thing?  We continue to learn about the virus every day, and supplies needed are being produced at a fast rate.  If you told me I was sure to test positive at some point, I would want that time to be when the healthcare system in my area isn't overwhelmed.

The downside of flattening the curve is prolonging the duration of the course that needs to be run.  

The economy would prefer we get through this sooner than later.  Sooner than later the risk of losing jobs/houses/retirement will significantly outweigh the risk of COVID.

 

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16 minutes ago, JaxBill said:

Spain with 913 deaths yesterday and 473 already today.

This is actually a potential sign that Spain's curve is starting to flatten. Their death number had been doubling every 2-3 days, but it hasn't doubled for 8 days now. New cases in Spain peaked at 8271 on March 26th, and since then they've posted 5 straight days below peak.

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13 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Don't really understand the idea that we can afford either the impacts of the dead or shutting the economy down, but not the standard pandemic response (that's already working in other countries).

Close everything nationwide for 3 weeks.  Reopen and encourage social distancing.

Then test at like 500k per day, isolate new cases, and do the tracing.

Who's going to do the tracing?

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8 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Who's going to do the tracing?

People who need work and want a paycheck.  I mean you could pay them $100/hour and the costs are still almost unmeasurably small relative to the cost of doing what we did in February and keeping the economy shut down for months at a time.

Edited by Dinsy Ejotuz
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