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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread


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11 hours ago, Penguin said:

This is what one of the DR's posted on Twitter

Bennett Penn @Penn_Laboratory

COVID-19 case just diagnosed in ICU our med center, suspected of being community acquired. I thought it'd be a while before this happened, but looks like it's time to buckle up...

Damn, that is right in my backyard. And I'm an ICU RN, so there's a chance I've already been exposed, or probably will be really soon. This flu season is already taxing our local resources: the number of available beds and vents hasn't been enough to keep up with the critically ill we have, just from flu.

Throw this into the mix, and it might be a very rough season.

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My dad has been sick for a few weeks.  My mom called me today to say he was about to die.  I said some final words to him and he could hear me but was unable to respond.  He passed a short time later.

Not to derail anything, but we had our baby last night! She's doing amazingly well. Due to the hospital's pandemic policies, I had to leave her right after my wife was released from recovery. I can't

On a positive note, my wife gave birth to our first child this morning!! We were expecting our daughter to be born in the first week of April, which does not align very well if this hospital sees a ma

6 minutes ago, BeTheMatch said:

So he catches me looking at him and shaking my head, and the following conversation takes place:

Him (angrily): "What?"
Me: "Really?"

Him: "******* right! Don't come knocking on my door when the **** hits the fan!"
 

"I got mine -- too bad for you!"

Icon -- that guy is why some people look askance at preppers.

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3 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Thanks for posting this, Redwes. So ... Dr. Feigl-Ding has been reading this thread?

Some of his advice is contradictory -- see bolded in red & blue above.

 

His take on masks made sense to me if you listen to the podcast.  It is most helpful to stop the spread to others but not really helpful to protect yourself. I also think the panic shopping thing made sense as well (sort of like you are at the store then buy a couple of extra things).  

 

ETA - I would suggest listening to it as I did on my way to work.  If you have a smart phone it is very easy to access a podcast.  

Edited by Redwes25
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6 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

I went to Whole Foods last night; I had to make two trips for all the water, then loaded up on canned goods. People were looking at me like I was insane :shrug:

Place was nice and empty, got prepared, now I'm done. 

That's been one benefit to Mardi Gras -- no one locally has focused on this. Stores and all still seem to have inventory as normal. I hadn't checked masks, probably won't get any ... but I am curious about using local mask availability as a proxy for "community preparedness".

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16 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Contrary to mental images he's a Super normal guy, great guy, great friend. Definitely a great ally if #### somehow DOES hit the fan. 

 

8 minutes ago, BeTheMatch said:

Him: "******* right! Don't come knocking on my door when the **** hits the fan!"

Again with the ####ting on the fan thing, wth is the fascination with ####ting on fans?!?!?

8 minutes ago, Jobber said:

Not to mention, going to the hospital for a week in the US costs way too much for your average person. Let alone someone without insurance. 

From the podcast, severe cases are 3+ weeks on ventilators for a good portion of the time. That is going to be a huge issue if this takes off. Not enough beds, not enough ventilators, cost prohibitive for most folks with subpar or no insurance. China's authoritarian regime has the ability to focus the economy on building hospitals & ventilators. I don't think the US will be doing that.

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6 minutes ago, TheIronSheik said:
10 minutes ago, adonis said:

How long before we have groups that get together and purposefully infect their kids like some parents do with chickenpox, just to get it out of the way in a controlled manner?

Considering you can get it more than once, like the flu, I'm not sure this would make sense.

With the flu, you'd have to be infected by a different strain as the first strain you got would provide immunity from getting that same strain again.

I have seen some reports of folks testing positive for the virus twice, but there seems to be some uncertainty around what this means...are there just trace amounts still in body weeks after an apparent recovery, but still detectable by tests?  Way too early to know, but if it's like the flu, and there's only one strain of coronovirus out there, it seems most likely you gain immunity from it after recovery...or else you wouldn't really be able to recover.

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7 minutes ago, Doug B said:

"I got mine -- too bad for you!"

Icon -- that guy is why some people look askance at preppers.

I got what my family needed. I never cleared shelves.

Guaranteed that moron is planning on selling them for a profit. Those people are ########s. His attitude is the icing on the cake. I hope someone shot him in the parking lot and took his precious handwipes :lol: 

Edited by [icon]
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Here's the party line in New Orleans, the day after Mardi Gras (Wed 2/26):

Quote

 

Director of the New Orleans Department of Health Dr. Jennifer Avegno said at a press conference today that the risk of the respiratory illness COVID-19, caused by the coronavirus, is “very, very low” in Louisiana.

At this point, there is no heightened danger to us in New Orleans or to us in the region,” Avegno said.

But, she said, there is another illness going around that is “far more dangerous right now than the coronavirus” — the flu

Avegno said that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that this flu season has been particularly brutal, killing an estimated 16,000 people nationally since October. Louisiana had 78,816 reported flu cases between October and Feb. 15.

She said New Orleanians were not necessarily at a higher risk of the coronavirus with tourists coming in from Mardi Gras, but that the influx of people could have increased the likelihood of the flu spreading.

Since the illness caused by the coronavirus is new, Avegno said health officials don’t yet know “how deadly” it is because it’s hard to count all of the cases, especially with the majority of them happening abroad. But she did say it doesn’t seem to be “as deadly” as other recent viruses like ebola.

 


So ... that's the city's current official recommendations to the public. 90+% of locals will take that as "no action needed".

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Just now, adonis said:

With the flu, you'd have to be infected by a different strain as the first strain you got would provide immunity from getting that same strain again.

Generally true, but not 100% for all people. So far as I can tell, all viral infections are that way -- 99+% have lifetime immunity after recovery (or nearly so), while the rest can be reinfected.

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4 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

Again with the ####ting on the fan thing, wth is the fascination with ####ting on fans?!?!?

I believe from a few rabbit hole trips on youtube that SHTF is the prepper's way of saying something like "Zombie Apocalypse" ;) 

 

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12 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Explain to me reloading, while we are here, and still have internet.   What's the concept here?  you save money by buying slugs and primer and reload the jackets?  

When the Government comes for your ammo, you can come for the Government!

 

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8 minutes ago, [icon] said:

I got what my family needed. I never cleared shelves.

Guaranteed that moron is planning on selling them for a profit. Those people are ########s. His attitude is the icing on the cake. I hope someone shot him in the parking lot and took his precious handwipes :lol: 

Seems harsh / extreme

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15 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Explain to me reloading, while we are here, and still have internet.   What's the concept here?  you save money by buying slugs and primer and reload the jackets?  

Easy to buy ammo now, but just wait until covid-19 has devastated Earth....

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1 hour ago, Redwes25 said:

Thanks for posting this.  It was a great listen and points a bad picture of the testing situation here in the US, which is probably the only thing we can really be doing at this point.  

The guy in that pod just tweeted a pretty good  update on the situation:

 

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1233072199701057536?s=21

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https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I expect the "BuT Cyhy/\ iZ LIyng" people to come out in force here.  Bear with me.

Let's break this down shall we:

  • 1/20/20 China says they have 278 cases
  • +20 days China 59.8k cases (picking the point where methodology switch happens)
    • Backing up ROW to match this now
  • 2/6/20 ROW has 278 cases (Keeping mind mind this is still cruise ship)
  • +20 days ROW 4.15k cases

Why is there a order of magnitude separation here?  With an order of magnitude more hot spots?

That requires ALOT of people lying.  I trust Singapore, Vietnam, Korea, and even Japan to the extent that they reported out on the ship.  

If you are in the "everyone is lying" or the "not enough people are tested" camp.  you still have to square the deviation in case counts.  

Nothing we've seen internationally supports the Chyna Lying by 20x their caseload.  That's the point.  Every day that goes by china falls behind the e factor.  If things keep up as they are they would be needing to be reporting 100x fewer cases than reality.  Soon.  And the ROW would be behind by one order of magnitude to that, if the situations can be considered equal.

 

 

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I don't know if this has been mentioned yet, but for anyone wanting a great source of protein that you can have for a few years, stock up on nuts. Store it in the fridge, or even better, the freezer.

My aunt would send me a mixed nut blend I love from Iran. I'd put it in the freezer. 5 years later I notice these are still in here. It was just fine. I'm thinking even longer storage in the freezer would be ok. 

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it's my opinion that this thing has been in the US for some time now; we just haven't been checking for it.  Cases are probably diagnosed as influenza.   Not sure what to do with that information, expect a massive and rapid uptick once we do start testing.  When that happens, the panic shopping will really set in.  That's when life will get... interesting.

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8 minutes ago, culdeus said:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I expect the "BuT Cyhy/\ iZ LIyng" people to come out in force here.  Bear with me.

Let's break this down shall we:

  • 1/20/20 China says they have 278 cases
  • +20 days China 59.8k cases (picking the point where methodology switch happens)
    • Backing up ROW to match this now
  • 2/6/20 ROW has 278 cases (Keeping mind mind this is still cruise ship)
  • +20 days ROW 4.15k cases

Why is there a order of magnitude separation here?  With an order of magnitude more hot spots?

That requires ALOT of people lying.  I trust Singapore, Vietnam, Korea, and even Japan to the extent that they reported out on the ship.  

If you are in the "everyone is lying" or the "not enough people are tested" camp.  you still have to square the deviation in case counts.  

Nothing we've seen internationally supports the Chyna Lying by 20x their caseload.  That's the point.  Every day that goes by china falls behind the e factor.  If things keep up as they are they would be needing to be reporting 100x fewer cases than reality.  Soon.  And the ROW would be behind by one order of magnitude to that, if the situations can be considered equal.

 

 

I don’t trust China, I don’t care about their numbers, I don’t know that their numbers have any relevance and we are getting to the point where it almost doesn’t matter anymore.

We see this thing doubling every 5 days or so in the rest of the world, we have some situations (cruise ship) that should establish some pretty solid mortality rates, so for me I’ll watch the rest of the world and disregard China. Is there ever going to be a way to know if that was a smart decision? I have no idea.  
 

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4 minutes ago, moleculo said:

it's my opinion that this thing has been in the US for some time now; we just haven't been checking for it.  Cases are probably diagnosed as influenza.   Not sure what to do with that information, expect a massive and rapid uptick once we do start testing.  When that happens, the panic shopping will really set in.  That's when life will get... interesting.

Why would that cause panic, it means that we've been exposed to it already and the death rate out in the open is more like the flu.

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One of the biggest risks I see is that the mortality rate could be a lot higher if ICU/ventilators become scarce.  The current rate is based on a health system that isn’t taxed.  If 40-60% of people get it, the health system will be overloaded 

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Went to Lowe’s last night for masks. An employee found one pack on sitting on the hardware counter. Inventory was showing negative 27 packs in inventory. 

We actually needed the for a demo and mold removal job today. Duck all you preppers. 

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1 minute ago, culdeus said:

Why would that cause panic, it means that we've been exposed to it already and the death rate out in the open is more like the flu.

We know the death rate isn’t like the flu.  But if it turns out there are 200 people instead of 20, that could cause panic among some.

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Just now, culdeus said:

Why would that cause panic, it means that we've been exposed to it already and the death rate out in the open is more like the flu.

The panic will start when peoples' movement gets restricted, schools and offices get closed, etc. And I think that is coming sooner teacher than later. Within 2 weeks some schools will get closed here in the US.

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2 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

The panic will start when peoples' movement gets restricted, schools and offices get closed, etc. And I think that is coming sooner teacher than later. Within 2 weeks some schools will get closed here in the US.

I travel for work. I attend religious services.  I’m headed to a soccer game Saturday night. I wonder how many of those will be happening in two months. In China none of them. In the US, will quarantine efforts be heeded?

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24 minutes ago, shader said:

If 40-60% of people get it, the health system will be overloaded 

If that many get it simultaneously, yes.

If that many get it over the course of ... I don't know ... two years? Then it's much more manageable, albeit still a huge challenge.

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1 hour ago, adonis said:

With the flu, you'd have to be infected by a different strain as the first strain you got would provide immunity from getting that same strain again.

I have seen some reports of folks testing positive for the virus twice, but there seems to be some uncertainty around what this means...are there just trace amounts still in body weeks after an apparent recovery, but still detectable by tests?  Way too early to know, but if it's like the flu, and there's only one strain of coronovirus out there, it seems most likely you gain immunity from it after recovery...or else you wouldn't really be able to recover.

podcast goes into this pretty well.  

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1 hour ago, adonis said:

How long before we have groups that get together and purposefully infect their kids like some parents do with chickenpox, just to get it out of the way in a controlled manner?

That Korean cult is way ahead of you.

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33 minutes ago, moleculo said:

it's my opinion that this thing has been in the US for some time now; we just haven't been checking for it.  Cases are probably diagnosed as influenza.   Not sure what to do with that information, expect a massive and rapid uptick once we do start testing.

There is a kicked-around-the-Internet theory that while (a) the U.S. does have a significant number of infected COVID folks right now (as many as low five-figures), that (b) they're being folded into the general flu/bronchitis/pneumonia set of patients and nothing untoward is being observed. No extra deaths, no upticks in patients requiring ventilators, etc.

It's not completely impossible that this thing just won't present in North America the way it has in other places. I guess we don't want to blindly hang our hats on that ... but it is possible to dodge this bullet.

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planning on having the talk with my kids tonight.  They hear news, and rumors and all that at school - they need to know the situation, what's likely to happen, and how our family is prepared.  A few points I will hit:

  • overview of what is going on and why everyone is panicked, but reinforce that for kids, it appears to be benign. 
  • do what they can to maintain personal space.  If they can keep everyone an arms length or more away, they are not very likely to pick up airborne virus (assuming they aren't sneezed on of coughed on).  Keep a greater distance from anyone sneezing or coughing.
  • major point to stress: wash your damn hands.  Wash them often, and wash them well.  Use soap and hot water, and scrub for 20 seconds.  If you can't wash, use hand sanitizer.
  • Do what you can to not touch your face, as that's how germs get inside your body.
  • possible societal effects: quarantine and what that means.  Will school be closed?  virtual learning?  Stress that overreaction may be driving this, but it's better to overreact than underreact.
  • discuss some of the prepper stuff we have: full cupboards, plenty of cleaning supplies.
  • talk about what we will do if one of the kids gets sick or one of us parents gets sick.
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44 minutes ago, CurlyNight said:

I don't know if this has been mentioned yet, but for anyone wanting a great source of protein that you can have for a few years, stock up on nuts. Store it in the fridge, or even better, the freezer.

My aunt would send me a mixed nut blend I love from Iran. I'd put it in the freezer. 5 years later I notice these are still in here. It was just fine. I'm thinking even longer storage in the freezer would be ok. 

I've got some nuts in my underpants y'all can stock up on

 

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6 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Not as a patient. But yes ... much time in hospitals over the last few years.

Okay then you should be aware that they can't handle the load they currently have. Now imagine 33 million (10% of US population) people heading to the hospital/emergency care etc for care. 

 

Edited by Buddy Ball 2K3
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9 minutes ago, Doug B said:

There is a kicked-around-the-Internet theory that while (a) the U.S. does have a significant number of infected COVID folks right now (as many as low five-figures), that (b) they're being folded into the general flu/bronchitis/pneumonia set of patients and nothing untoward is being observed. No extra deaths, no upticks in patients requiring ventilators, etc.

It's not completely impossible that this thing just won't present in North America the way it has in other places. I guess we don't want to blindly hang our hats on that ... but it is possible to dodge this bullet.

Seems like a major conspiracy theory 

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2 minutes ago, Buddy Ball 2K3 said:

Okay then you should be aware that they can't handle the load they currently have. Now imagine 33 million (10% of US population) people heading to the hospital/emergency care etc for care. 

I

There's no evidence that even in Hubei/Wuhan 10% of the population wound up in hospitals.  Even if you think they euthanized people it was far from 10%.  

Use the cruise ship as a proxy here.  2% required actual treatment so far (haven't checked in a few days, could be lower).  

Is 2% of the US needing treatment a problem? Yes.  Will we be as ####ed up as the ship keeping people apart? I doubt it.

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36 minutes ago, shader said:

We know the death rate isn’t like the flu.  But if it turns out there are 200 people instead of 20, that could cause panic among some.

Do we? I mean, really know it? The reporting of cases, the changes in testing criteria and methodology, and some government reluctance to hinder tourism and cause panic (China and Iran, specifically) make it unlikely we have an actual hardset, data-backed mortality rate, I think.

I'm hoping that it's nowhere near 2-3%, as is being reported. Maybe there are actually a lot more cases that are being lumped into the seasonal flu category, and mortality isn't as bad as it seems.

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For the record, if this does get worse it will, as with most things, impact at risk groups more. For example, lower income people are less likely to get treated because they cannot afford a doctor's visit.

 

The disabled community is at huge risk, some have compromised immune systems. many rely on public transportation, some are not able to follow instructions on how to stay safe, dependence on medications they may not be able to get if travel is restricted, etc...

 

 

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2 minutes ago, ProstheticRGK said:

Do we? I mean, really know it? The reporting of cases, the changes in testing criteria and methodology, and some government reluctance to hinder tourism and cause panic (China and Iran, specifically) make it unlikely we have an actual hardset, data-backed mortality rate, I think.

I'm hoping that it's nowhere near 2-3%, as is being reported. Maybe there are actually a lot more cases that are being lumped into the seasonal flu category, and mortality isn't as bad as it seems.

Cruise ship is a pretty solid indicator.  Already (we are early) 4 deaths from 703 cases.  That’s 5 times as deadly as flu and that number should rise.  
 

I get that people want to be positive, but there is no data at all that supports the idea that the mortality rate is close to the flu.  
 

The experts seem pretty solid on the 20% serious/2% death rate, though admittedly it’s early 

https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1232943198227423233?s=21

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17 minutes ago, Buddy Ball 2K3 said:

Okay then you should be aware that they can't handle the load they currently have. Now imagine 33 million (10% of US population) people heading to the hospital/emergency care etc for care. 

 

Why would they all need to go in for emergency care? Why would even half of them require emergency room treatment? 

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1 minute ago, JerseyToughGuys said:

Why would they all need to go in for emergency care? Why would even half of them require emergency room treatment? 

81% of people that get it have mild cases.

14 percent are severe and 5% critical, IF you believe the numbers in the Chinese study.

That study also indicates that for people 39 and under, death rate is .2%

The key is how many of those severe cases need ICU and what happens if they don’t get treated.

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12 minutes ago, shader said:

Cruise ship is a pretty solid indicator.  Already (we are early) 4 deaths from 703 cases.  That’s 5 times as deadly as flu and that number should rise.  
 

I get that people want to be positive, but there is no data at all that supports the idea that the mortality rate is close to the flu.  
 

The experts seem pretty solid on the 20% serious/2% death rate, though admittedly it’s early 

https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1232943198227423233?s=21

Good point. Thanks! 

And crap.😷 

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