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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread


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39 minutes ago, The Z Machine said:

I have tickets to the EUROs in June... I've invested a considerable amount in that already.  Let's hope it still goes on.

Long time before then, it'll be on

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My dad has been sick for a few weeks.  My mom called me today to say he was about to die.  I said some final words to him and he could hear me but was unable to respond.  He passed a short time later.

Not to derail anything, but we had our baby last night! She's doing amazingly well. Due to the hospital's pandemic policies, I had to leave her right after my wife was released from recovery. I can't

On a positive note, my wife gave birth to our first child this morning!! We were expecting our daughter to be born in the first week of April, which does not align very well if this hospital sees a ma

5 minutes ago, shader said:

81% of people that get it have mild cases.

14 percent are severe and 5% critical, IF you believe the numbers in the Chinese study.

That study also indicates that for people 39 and under, death rate is .2%

The key is how many of those severe cases need ICU and what happens if they don’t get treated.

So we shouldn't be trying to "imagine 33 million people (10% of US population) heading to the hospital/emergency care etc for care" at the same time because that's not reality. Right? 

 

Edited by JerseyToughGuys
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16 minutes ago, shader said:

Cruise ship is a pretty solid indicator.  Already (we are early) 4 deaths from 703 cases.  That’s 5 times as deadly as flu and that number should rise.

ONLY if age spread on the cruise ship is similar to the rest of the world's. My personal feeling is that the demographics of cruise passengers are older, but that may be prejudice.

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27 minutes ago, Buddy Ball 2K3 said:

Okay then you should be aware that they can't handle the load they currently have.

As a blanket assertion, for all hospitals everywhere in the U.S.? I disagree with you. It's a mixed bag, yes. But not a universally overwhelmed system at present.

I also don't think -- even at it's very worst -- that COVID-19 gets to the point that 35 million Americans (~10%) will need hospitalization all at the same time.

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3 minutes ago, msommer said:

ONLY if age spread on the cruise ship is similar to the rest of the world's. My personal feeling is that the demographics of cruise passengers are older, but that may be prejudice.

Having been on a 2 week cruise in February before - the passengers skewed much, much older than the general population.

Edited by themeanmachine
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27 minutes ago, shader said:

Seems like a major conspiracy theory 

Not really. Not to me, anyway. Just sounds like a vague prediction that things won't necessarily get as bad in North America ... essentially, that the U.S. and Canada would more or less absorb a certain level** of COVID patients. Up to a point, anyway.
 

** 'level' here meaning both 'a number, a headcount' and 'a level of severity of symptoms'.

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Just now, themeanmachine said:

Having been on a 2 week cruise in February before - the passengers skewed much, much older that the general population.

Read somewhere that 200 passengers on Diamond Princess were 80 or older. That's about 5%

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8 minutes ago, JerseyToughGuys said:

So we shouldn't be trying to "imagine 33 million people (10% of US population) people heading to the hospital/emergency care etc for care" at the same time because that's not reality. Right? 

 

Lets say 2MM Americans get infected.  I honestly, think that is a realistic number if the virus really has transmission factor between R2 and R4 (current estimates) and it does not end up contained.  If 5% are critical and they need ICU care that is 100,000 people in need of ICU care.  There are not enouch ICU beds available for that level of care.  That is the biggest issue I think we face as a country.  Our healthcare system sucks and won't be able to adapt.  China just goes ahead and builds a hospital if they need one.  We haven't been able to pull big public works projects off since the 1960s and you have to go back to WWII when we could do huge national moblizations that such a scenario presents.  

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5 minutes ago, JerseyToughGuys said:

So we shouldn't be trying to "imagine 33 million people (10% of US population) heading to the hospital/emergency care etc for care" at the same time because that's not reality. Right? 

 

There’s about 540k total hospital beds in US.  94k ICU beds. 

The patients with severe cases last 3-6 weeks.  Surely you can see where this could become a major problem if even one million people had severe cases.

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6 minutes ago, JerseyToughGuys said:

So we shouldn't be trying to "imagine 33 million people (10% of US population) heading to the hospital/emergency care etc for care" at the same time because that's not reality. Right? 

I'll believe that when I see it ... and maybe not even then.

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7 minutes ago, msommer said:

ONLY if age spread on the cruise ship is similar to the rest of the world's. My personal feeling is that the demographics of cruise passengers are older, but that may be prejudice.

Depends on the cruise, but that’s definitely a good point.

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6 minutes ago, Doug B said:

I also don't think -- even at it's very worst -- that COVID-19 gets to the point that 35 million Americans (~10%) will need hospitalization all at the same time.

This is an important point. Everyone won't get it at the same time. That said, it may still overwhelm the capacity available

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2 minutes ago, shader said:

There’s about 540k total hospital beds in US.  94k ICU beds. 

The patients with severe cases last 3-6 weeks.  Surely you can see where this could become a major problem if even one million people had severe cases.

Where does this come from? 

Sure, it could be a problem if one million people had to be hospitalized all at the same time. Why / how would that occur? 

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3 minutes ago, JerseyToughGuys said:

Where does this come from? 

Sure, it could be a problem if one million people had to be hospitalized all at the same time. Why / how would that occur? 

https://www.sccm.org/Communications/Critical-Care-Statistics

Look at what happened in China.  They built god damn hospitals in a week since existing framework couldn't handle it.  

Info from link:

AHA data: According to the AHA 2015 annual survey, the United States had 4862 acute care registered hospitals; 2814 of these had at least 10 acute care beds and at least 1 ICU bed. These hospitals had a total of 540,668 staffed beds and 94,837 ICU beds (14.3% ICU beds/total beds) in 5229 ICUs. There were 46,490 medical-surgical beds in 2644 units, 14,731 cardiac beds in 976 units, 6588 other beds in 379 units, 4698 pediatric beds in 307 units, and 22,330 neonatal beds in 920 units. The median number of beds in medical-surgical, cardiac, and other units was 12, with 10 beds in pediatrics and 18 in neonatal. Fifty-two percent of hospitals had 1 unit, 24% had 2 units, and 24% had 3 or more units.

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5 minutes ago, shader said:

There’s about 540k total hospital beds in US.  94k ICU beds. 

The patients with severe cases last 3-6 weeks.  Surely you can see where this could become a major problem if even one million people had severe cases.

Google is telling me there were around 900K hospital beds in 2017. Can't find accurate 2020 numbers. 

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1 minute ago, JerseyToughGuys said:

Where does this come from? 

Sure, it could be a problem if one million people had to be hospitalized all at the same time. Why / how would that occur? 

Google

 

If 20 million people in the US had it at the same time, then 5% is 1 million.  20 million seems conservative 

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Just now, JerseyToughGuys said:
2 minutes ago, shader said:

There’s about 540k total hospital beds in US.  94k ICU beds. 

The patients with severe cases last 3-6 weeks.  Surely you can see where this could become a major problem if even one million people had severe cases.

Where does this come from? 

Sure, it could be a problem if one million people had to be hospitalized all at the same time. Why / how would that occur? 

Plus, "number of ICU beds" is not a finite number -- or necessarily even a relevant number.

A ready-built ICU room has A LOT of equipment not needed to specifically treat a COVID patient. If a facility needs extra "acute COVID care" wards/rooms, you set them up on the fly out of ordinary patient rooms or whatever floor space you have. (@Terminalxylem ?)

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2 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

https://www.sccm.org/Communications/Critical-Care-Statistics

Look at what happened in China.  They built god damn hospitals in a week since existing framework couldn't handle it.  

Info from link:

AHA data: According to the AHA 2015 annual survey, the United States had 4862 acute care registered hospitals; 2814 of these had at least 10 acute care beds and at least 1 ICU bed. These hospitals had a total of 540,668 staffed beds and 94,837 ICU beds (14.3% ICU beds/total beds) in 5229 ICUs. There were 46,490 medical-surgical beds in 2644 units, 14,731 cardiac beds in 976 units, 6588 other beds in 379 units, 4698 pediatric beds in 307 units, and 22,330 neonatal beds in 920 units. The median number of beds in medical-surgical, cardiac, and other units was 12, with 10 beds in pediatrics and 18 in neonatal. Fifty-two percent of hospitals had 1 unit, 24% had 2 units, and 24% had 3 or more units.

Hard to look at China. One of the most opaque places in the world, as you are aware. 

Edited by JerseyToughGuys
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1 minute ago, JerseyToughGuys said:

Google is telling me there were around 900K hospital beds in 2017. Can't find accurate 2020 numbers. 

Yeah it looks like 900k seems more accurate. Perhaps the original numbers I had were wrong. Either way, nowhere near enough capacity if it breaks to 40-60% of the population.

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Just now, shader said:

Yeah it looks like 900k seems more accurate. Perhaps the original numbers I had were wrong. Either way, nowhere near enough capacity if it breaks to 40-60% of the population.

Why would it break to 40-60 percent of the population at precisely the same time? 

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Just now, JerseyToughGuys said:

Had to look at China. Not the most opaque place in the word, as you are aware. 

Ok, even with some increase since 2015, I doubt we have more than 100K ICU beds in this country.  Hopefully, it remains contained because if it doesn't it could be a huge problem.  ICU beds are typically full of folks coming off of surgery/other issues. Not like there are 100k empty bed sitting around. A huge flux of folks coming in for this virus could be bad when you look at a system that is already heavily used.  Of course, I hope I am wrong.  

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1 minute ago, JerseyToughGuys said:

Where does this estimate come from? Why would 20 million all have it at the same time?

Why would they not?  Why are you downplaying the potential of this?  There have been links and podcasts and scientists that have been provided in this thread that show that up to 40-60% of the population could get it.

Why would you expect that this virus would spread in a slow and steady way? China didn’t build 20 hospitals because they were bored.

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Just now, Redwes25 said:

Ok, even with some increase since 2015, I doubt we have more than 100K ICU beds in this country.  Hopefully, it remains contained because if it doesn't it could be a huge problem.  ICU beds are typically full of folks coming off of surgery/other issues. Not like there are 100k empty bed sitting around. A huge flux of folks coming in for this virus could be bad when you look at a system that is already heavily used.  Of course, I hope I am wrong.  

What exactly is an "ICU Bed" for the purposes of the bed count and what portions that setup are relevant to treating Wuhan virus? 

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Just now, shader said:

Why would they not?  Why are you downplaying the potential of this?  There have been links and podcasts and scientists that have been provided in this thread that show that up to 40-60% of the population could get it.

Why would you expect that this virus would spread in a slow and steady way? China didn’t build 20 hospitals because they were bored.

Those statements are that in the next year the worse case 40 to 60% get it.  Not that 40 to 60% get it all at once.  

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Just now, JerseyToughGuys said:

Where does this come from? 

Sure, it could be a problem if one million people had to be hospitalized all at the same time. Why / how would that occur? 

33 million infected at peak. that means 5m severe cases and 1m critical. So if 33m infected at the same time you might need 1m ICU beds. 

But this supposes a lot on a flimsy basis. 33 million cases would mean that Covid-19 would infect as many in the US as the regular flu. Would the same amount of people get regular flu or would they get Covid-19 instead. Some get both? To which virus should hospitalization be counted etc etc. Per CDC 

Quote

seasonal flu activity often begins as early as October and November and can continue to occur as late as May. Flu activity most commonly peaks in the United States between December and February

the US should be on the tail end of the usual flu season which ought to limit the spread in time at least

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2 minutes ago, JerseyToughGuys said:

What exactly is an "ICU Bed" for the purposes of the bed count and what portions that setup are relevant to treating Wuhan virus? 

Intensive care units, link I posted explains it pretty well on numbers.  

ETA - if you have ever been in an ICU or visited someone in ICU think you would understand the level of care is different in those units.  

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A good buddy is a Airforce C-5 and FedEx 777 Pilot. His wife is as well (DINK's too.... they do okay :lmao: ). 

He just landed in Guangzhou at 2AM local time and sent this text: 

Quote

"In GZ China right now. Landed around 2am. Wouldn't let us open the plane doors until we had masks on. Checked our temps before we could deplane, then hustled us to the hotel. Temps were checked again before entering the hotel. The only people at the hotel are FedEx pilots. 

The passenger side of the airport was dead. Lights mostly off. On the roads it was empty except a couple cars and large commercial trucks"


He's going to keep us updated. He leaves again in 24 hours and will try to get video on the way to the airport. 

:popcorn: 

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Just now, shader said:

Why would they not?  Why are you downplaying the potential of this?  There have been links and podcasts and scientists that have been provided in this thread that show that up to 40-60% of the population could get it.

Why would you expect that this virus would spread in a slow and steady way? China didn’t build 20 hospitals because they were bored.

There are many many many reasons why 40 - 60 percent of the US population won't get the virus at exactly the same time. I was curious if you had anything specific you were basing that statement off of. Doesn't appear you do. 

Just because 40-60 percent of the population could get it at some point doesn't mean they will get it at exactly the same time. I haven't seen your numbers mentioned anywhere. They seem pretty made up to me, or at best extrapolated from a mixture of sources and moving parts. 

The "China didn't build 20 hospitals because they were bored" thing isn't terribly compelling evidence. China is a weird place and does weird ####. And we don't even know if what we are seeing is accurate in the first place. 

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6 minutes ago, shader said:

20 million seems conservative 

Not sure. Regular flu peak season (see my earlier post) is Dec-Feb, i.e. now is late season. Sometimes flu season lasts until May but how many can be infected in that timeframe (we don't really know). In the floating Petri dish called Diamond Princess they managed 20% in about a month. Would that be achievable "in the wild"? :shrug: 

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4 minutes ago, shader said:

Why would they not?  Why are you downplaying the potential of this?  There have been links and podcasts and scientists that have been provided in this thread that show that up to 40-60% of the population could get it.

The scientists that said this didn't mean "simultaneously". It was over some time period ... 2-5 years or so. I'll see what I can dig up.

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15 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

Intensive care units, link I posted explains it pretty well on numbers.  

ETA - if you have ever been in an ICU or visited someone in ICU think you would understand the level of care is different in those units.  

Right. Which elements are a dire necessity for a coronavirus patient? I get the point on "ICU Beds" but it appears a ton of nuance is being bulldozed in the fervor and fever. 

Edited by JerseyToughGuys
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10 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Plus, "number of ICU beds" is not a finite number -- or necessarily even a relevant number.

A ready-built ICU room has A LOT of equipment not needed to specifically treat a COVID patient. If a facility needs extra "acute COVID care" wards/rooms, you set them up on the fly out of ordinary patient rooms or whatever floor space you have. (@Terminalxylem ?)

Exactly. Even for severe cases is there anything to do other than hydration and cooling ? Once you get pneumonia (or other bacterial infections), different story, but also more treatment options.

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1 minute ago, JerseyToughGuys said:

Right. Which elements are a dire necessity for a coronavirus patient? I get the point on "ICU Beds" but it appears a ton of nuance is been bulldozed in the fervor and fever. 

I am mostly going with that podcast but my understanding is that critical cases need to be on ventilators with constant monitoring for several weeks.  I think my number earlier about 2mm with virus and need for 100k beds is not unrealistic.  I don't think we can handle that, which sucks.  So I hope it remains contained.  

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Just now, JerseyToughGuys said:

Right. Which elements are a dire necessity for a coronavirus patient? I get the point on "ICU Beds" but it appears a ton of nuance is been bulldozed in the fervor and fever

Preach on.

...

The "not enough ICU beds!" thing must be a talking point somewhere -- I'm going to go so far as to say that number of ICU beds doesn't matter a whit.

A broom closet with a comfy bed and a ventilator ... that's your bare-bones COVID treatment room. I exaggerate, but little.

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1 minute ago, Doug B said:

Preach on.

...

The "not enough ICU beds!" thing must be a talking point somewhere -- I'm going to go so far as to say that number of ICU beds doesn't matter a whit.

A broom closet with a comfy bed and a ventilator ... that's your bare-bones COVID treatment room. I exaggerate, but little.

There are less of those then beds - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21149215

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18 minutes ago, JerseyToughGuys said:

Google is telling me there were around 900K hospital beds in 2017. Can't find accurate 2020 numbers. 

This number is closer to correct. 20% ICU I'm not so sure on, but that could be close too.

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4 minutes ago, msommer said:

Exactly. Even for severe cases is there anything to do other than hydration and cooling ? Once you get pneumonia (or other bacterial infections), different story, but also more treatment options.

The "hydration and cooling" folks, unless quite elderly, aren't going to have hospital stays. They've visit GPs or urgent care centers or similar. They will almost all convalesce at home.

The pneumonia/debris-in-lungs folks will require ventilators -- not necessarily place in an ICU room. Some Chinese communities have built COVID wards out of gymnasiums -- no private rooms or anything, just a bunch of bed+ventilator set-ups laid out in a grid. Some curtains separating some people, some other patients sharing floor space. Reminded me of a M*A*S*H unit set up indoors. I've seen pics, and can find them to post here.

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2 hours ago, Redwes25 said:

His take on masks made sense to me if you listen to the podcast.  It is most helpful to stop the spread to others but not really helpful to protect yourself. I also think the panic shopping thing made sense as well (sort of like you are at the store then buy a couple of extra things).  

 

ETA - I would suggest listening to it as I did on my way to work.  If you have a smart phone it is very easy to access a podcast.  

What's the name of the podcast you're referring to?  Sorry if you've already said.  This thread is moving too fast to catch everything.

TIA

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